Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective

This BAMS special report presents assessments of how human-caused climate change may have affected the strength and likelihood of extreme events.

Submissions are now open for the BAMS Explaining Extreme Events (BAMS EEE) report to be released in January 2023. There are some significant changes this year in the submission and report release process, so please read the updates and author guidelines below.

EEE Report Editors:
Stephanie Herring, NOAA
Andrew Hoell, NOAA
Nikos Christidis, UK Met Office
Peter Stott, UK Met Office
 EEE.BAMS@ametsoc.org

BAMS EEE Peer Review Editors:
John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M and Texas State Climatologist
Andrew King, University of Melbourne
Tom Knutson, NOAA/GFDL
Friederike Otto, Imperial College London

General Guidelines for Authors

NEW: BAMS EEE is moving to a rolling submission process for manuscripts
In the past, all contributions to BAMS EEE were released at the AGU Fall Meeting in December. This required a tight timeline where papers were accepted and reviewed between May and the release date. Instead, BAMS EEE will now accept proposals and papers throughout the year, which will be published and posted to the BAMS EEE website soon after they are accepted following peer review. This will enable authors to promote and share their results as soon as their papers are published. This process still requires that a proposal be submitted and approved before submitting a manuscript.

NEW: BAMS EEE will be released at the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting
This edition of BAMS EEE will be released at the AMS Annual Meeting in January 2023. There will be a scientific session convened at AMS on climate attribution that will combine presentations of the full compilation of papers accepted and published during 2022, as well as new event attribution research, synthesis and state-of-the-science papers and perspectives.

NEW: BAMS EEE submissions during 2022 can include events that occurred in 2021 or 2022
For this edition of the report, we will accept attribution studies for extreme weather events that occurred in 2021 or 2022, rather than a single calendar year. Papers eligible to be included in the scientific session at AMS must be accepted for publication by BAMS no later than December 1, 2022.

NEW: BAMS EEE press event at AMS Annual Meeting January 2023
In conjunction with the scientific session at the AMS Annual Meeting, AMS will host a press event highlighting studies published during the previous year as well as new research that is published at the scientific session. The format of the press event will conform to local public health rules, but it is envisioned as both an in-person event to facilitate direct engagement between scientists and the media, as well as being presented virtually, to maximize participation by media who are not present at the meeting. We encourage authors to consider attending AMS to submit an abstract and participate in these attribution sessions. Media queries for this event should be directed to Rachel Thomas-Medwid.

Timing and Deadlines

The overall timeline for inclusion in the January 2023 report release:

  • By early April 2022: Submit proposal to EEE.BAMS@ametsoc.org.
  • By early May 2022: Authors submit their manuscripts to the assigned Report Editor. The assigned Report Editor will review and provide initial feedback and comments.
  • By end of May 2022: Papers are submitted to BAMS for peer review.
  • The review process continues as needed until a final decision is reached on the paper by BAMS Peer Review Editor. We strive to have accept/reject decisions by August/September 2022, but this varies depending on the speed of the review process.

Before Submitting a Proposal

As you consider a possible contribution, the Report Editors would like to offer a few thoughts on the direction of the report.

  • In alignment with the intent of the BAMS EEE, we welcome traditional event attribution papers that explore the role of climate change on a specific event.
  • As in past years, we encourage “Impact Attribution” papers that connect event attribution research to socioeconomic and environmental impacts. These impact attribution papers have a larger scientific challenge to link climate change to the event and to the impacts of the event. To accommodate this additional research charge, impact attribution papers will be allowed 2000 words in the main manuscript in addition to their supplementary materials, and three figures.
  • We continue to welcome research papers that examine rapid event attribution methodologies and the expanding application of climate attribution science in engineering, law, public policy, economics and related fields.

Submission and Review Process: Proposals

NEW: Submit Proposals via email to: EEE.BAMS@ametsoc.org
All proposals should be submitted to the Report Editors via email to EEE.BAMS@ametsoc.org. See Proposal Guidelines below.

Submission and Review Process: Full Manuscripts

Once a proposal is accepted, authors should submit the full manuscript to the Report Editor via email to EEE.BAMS@ametsoc.org. See Full Manuscript Guidelines below.

The Report Editors will forward full manuscripts to BAMS staff, and peer review will be handled by the BAMS EEE Peer Review Editors. Decisions and reviewer comments will be returned to authors via email from the EEE Report Editors, and authors should return revisions and responses to reviewers via email to EEE.BAMS@ametsoc.org.

Submission Guidelines: Proposals

In order to help us plan the report should provide a proposal for their submissions to BAMS EEE. The proposal should be no more than 250 words, and should be emailed to the Report Editors at EEE.BAMS@ametsoc.org.

Proposals should include:

  1. A description of an event occurring in 2021 or 2022, and how it is being characterized as ‘extreme’. Please define the event, including the timeframe and geographic range of the event that will be examined. For impact attribution papers, we acknowledge that there may be a delay between the physical weather/climate event and the impacts. Therefore, it is fine for the impact to have occurred in 2021, but the physical driver for the event to have occurred earlier.
  2. An outline of your general approach to addressing the question of whether anthropogenic climate change influenced the intensity, frequency, geographic distribution, and if applicable the impact of the event. Please include information such as:
    1. Models and data sets that will be used, and whether a FAR value will be calculated;
    2. If it is an impact attribution paper, how the impact will be quantified.
    Keep in mind that we encourage you to use methodologies that are published elsewhere in the literature. Given the limited space for these reports it is difficult to introduce new methods and adequately address reviewer comments.
  3. As appropriate, describe what aspect(s) of the event will be examined. For example, if it is a drought event will you be looking at changes in precipitation, temperature, or both?
  4. How you plan on using the figures.

Submission Guidelines: Full Manuscripts

Once a proposal is accepted, authors should submit the full manuscript to the Report Editors via email to EEE.BAMS@ametsoc.org.

  • Each paper is limited to 1500 words and 2 figures. Figure legends can be up to 125 words and acknowledgements up to 50 words, and these do not count against your 1500 word limit. Supplementary materials are limited to 250 words and 2 figures.
    • Impact attribution papers will be allowed 2000 words and 3 figures.
  • Each paper will start with a 30 word capsule summary that includes, if possible, how anthropogenic climate change contributed to the magnitude and/or likelihood of the event.
  • To the extent possible, be written in a way that is accessible to a broader audience outside the field of event attribution.

Explaining Extreme Events in 2020 from a Climate Perspective

This BAMS special report presents assessments of how human-caused climate change may have affected the strength and likelihood of individual extreme events.

The tenth edition of the report, Explaining Extreme Events in 2020 from a Climate Perspective, presents 18 new peer-reviewed analyses of extreme weather from across the world during 2020. It features the research of 89 scientists from nine countries looking at both historical observations and model simulations to determine whether and by how much climate change may have influenced particular extreme events. 

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