The AMS Council seeks volunteers for service on a drafting team for a new AMS statement on prediction markets and weather information. We seek members from across the enterprise to broadly represent the full range of views in the community on all issues related to this statement. 

Those wishing to be considered for service on the drafting team should submit their name, contact information, and a brief description of their relevant professional expertise (not to exceed 200 words) by October 15, 2026.

Précis for AMS Statement on Prediction Markets and Weather Information

Prediction markets are increasingly being applied to weather and environmental events, creating new connections between meteorological information, observations, and financial incentives. These applications raise novel concerns when participants can potentially influence either the event being predicted or the information used to determine the outcome. For example, French authorities investigated unexplained temperature spikes at a Paris airport that coincided with unusually profitable weather bets, raising the possibility that a measurement instrument had been manipulated. In the United States, legislators have expressed concern that markets on wildfires could create incentives for individuals to influence the occurrence or progression of fires. Such cases illustrate a broader challenge: unlike many conventional uses of weather information, prediction markets can create direct financial incentives around both weather outcomes and the observations used to verify those outcomes. As these markets develop, meteorologists and other members of the weather enterprise may encounter them in increasingly varied roles, creating a need for greater clarity about ethical participation, conflicts of interest, appropriate professional boundaries, and activities that could compromise the integrity of weather information or public trust.

We anticipate that this AMS policy statement will likely: 1) increase awareness among meteorologists, policymakers, and other members of the weather enterprise of the potential benefits and risks associated with prediction markets, and 2) identify circumstances in which meteorologists' participation in prediction markets may create ethical concerns, conflicts of interest, or risks to the integrity of observations, forecasts, warnings, and other weather information.

Application