and
Climate Change Science
(the German Perspective)
by
Drew Jackson
&
Kyle Dittmer
On May 23, 2011, 23 members attended this meeting, at the Stark Street Pizza House, Portland. OR-AMS President Bobby Corser welcomed folks and gave the opening remarks. He said that the election results would be announced at the end of the meeting.
Evaluating Broadcast Meteorologists - Drew Jackson (presentiation.pdf)
Drew, a meteorlogists, has served on the national AMS Board of Broadcaster Certification for the last two years. He gave a brief history of the evaluation process. In 1957, the AMS Board of Broadcasting was formed. The first Seal of Approval came out in 1960. In 2005, the AMS announced that the Seal of Approval would be discontinued at the end of 2008, to be replaced by the “Certified Broadcast Meteorologist” seal. During 1957 to 2008, there were 1858 TV Seals awarded.
The driving reason for the change in 2005 was to enhance the standards. New features include:
(1) Deeper educational requirements – a B.S./B.A. degree in Meteorology was now mandatory.
(2) Closed-book qualifying exam.
(3) Mandatory professional development (e.g., teaching, writing papers or a book, public talks).
The new process entailed:
(1) Application, with degree in hand (or equivalent set of courses);
(2) Exam of 100-questions that covers general meteorology concepts, with a 75% needed to pass (one can re-take the exam up to three times, if failed);
(3) Weathercast Review – a video/DVD of three consecutive appearance days, and evaluation is based on Informational value, Explanatory value, Technical competence, and Communication skill.
The Explanatory value section has the highest rate of failure amongst applicants. All Applicants and Board of Broadcast members need to disclose any potential conflict of interest at the time of the application.
The AMS does not suggest to TV stations how a weathercast should be done, but rather to offer rigorous standardized evaluations of broadcast meteorologists. Drew was asked, “Why are you serving on this Board? What is your passion here?” He said that it is fun to see a big variety of how forecasts are presented and styles.
Drew then showed a video-clip of himself, as a sample weathercast for evaluation, and asked the audience to give feedback, based on the above criteria. We then watched a video from a midwest forecaster for comparison, and performed an evaluation, then compared both evaluations. That exercise was most insightful.
Climate Change Science – the German Perspective - Kylie Dittmer (presentation.pdf)
Kyle said, “I am fulfilling a promise, made to the Oregon AMS members.” He gave his winter weather forecast in October 2010 via a long-distance phone call from Germany and offered to share his research findings with us. This trip was partly funded by a grant from the Dept. of Science/Math, Marylhurst University, and hosted by Kyle’s former exchange student, Paul Sommer-Weisel and his family. Kyle had the opportunity to interview Dr. Jochen Luhmann (www.wupperinst.org/en/contact/cont/index.html?&kontakt_id=42&bid=43&searchart=uebersicht) of the Wuppertal Climate Institute for Climate, Energy, and Environment, located in western Germany. There was a second, shorter interview with Dr. Michael Scheffel, of Wuppertal U.
Ten questions were asked. The main theme was the current views of German scientists on climate change and climate variability science and societal impacts. The secondary theme was how the German view differed than that of the American science community.
1. What have been the observed trends in maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and snowfall in Germany during the last 100 years? “Winter and Spring temperatures have increased…”“Autumn and Winter season precipitation has increased…” Rise of 0.8 – 1 degC during 1900-2000 (strongest 1970s to now). A 2.3 degC in winter and 0.7 degC in summer, seen in 1980-2000. Snow over declined by 30-40% at or below 300 m (1000 feet) elevations. Extreme events are increasing – heat waves, hard rainfall, storms. http://www.umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdf-k/k2974.pdf
2. Which future climate change impact(s) will have the greatest effect on Germany—rising sea level (and perhaps more coastal erosion, storm surges), flooding, altered weather patterns, or ??? “Rise in sea-level…as this will increase erosion on the north coast of Germany.” Northern areas, most agricultural land, could see precipitation drop by 50%. Ski areas in the Alps could suffer, as snowpack cover declines.www.goodentrepreneur.com/Knowledge/Features/Germany-Climate-Change-Profile
3. How will future climate change impact Germany’s natural resources – its lakes, forests, fisheries? “Ocean acidification is a growing concern for fisheries.” Agriculture may see more challenges. Tourism, especially in coastal areas, is likely to be impacted.
4. Does the German Government have a plan to deal with invasive/exotic species, due to global warming? These species could have major negative impacts on forestry, agricultural, and fisheries management. “YES...a new plan was adopted in December 2008.” Plan is comprehensive – covers human health, buildings, water & coastal resources, soil, agriculture, forestry, energy, financial markets, transportation, trade, and tourism. Main goal is to reduce vulnerability of natural and society systems. www.bmu.de/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/das_gesamt_en_bf.pdf
5. What is the German view on the causes of climate change? Review the known causes: Greenhouse Gas (man-made), Natural Cycle (solar cycle – long and short term, ocean currents – long-term change, undersea volcanism), or Blended-view (both causes). “Of course...it is both causes.”
6. In the Unites States, there is great concern about the future of the glaciers in Greenland. Will the continued melt of the Greenland glaciers reach a climate change “tipping point” that might trigger rapid climate change (i.e., a Dansgaard-Oeschger event) in the north Atlantic and a shift to colder terrestrial conditions, due to the major change in thermohaline transport? “Unknown...needs further study.”
7. Have the Germans developed any new computer climate change models to refine the assessment of global climate change impacts in the Arctic? “YES...research work is in progress.”
8. Have the Germans looked at the connection between solar forcing and climate response? Are you aware of the works of the late Dr. Theodore Landschiedt? “YES...we are aware of his work.”
It was not clear if anyone in the German science community was picking up the work.
9. Is Germany focused on mitigation or adaption strategies in response to climate change? “BOTH...but we emphasize Adaptation.”
10. Are there ways that American and German scientists can collaborate in a meaningful way on Climate Change issues? YES...through our universities, government agencies, and climate change forums.”
German climate research and resources: Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (www.pik-potsdam.de/institute) Max Plank Institute (www.mpg.de/en) German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (www.cbd.int/cooperation/bfn.shtml) European Environmental Agency (www.eea.europa.eu) Der Spigel <http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,686697,00.html>
A lively Q&A followed. This presentation will be given at Marylhurst University (near Lake Oswego) in the summer of 2011. Dankeschön! J
Kyle announced the election results. Bobby thanked everyone for coming!
Notes by Kyle Dittmer
