|Evaluating Broadcast Meteorologists
Climate Change Science
(the German Perspective)
On May 23, 2011, 23 members attended this meeting, at the Stark Street Pizza House, Portland. OR-AMS President Bobby Corser welcomed folks and gave the opening remarks. He said that the election results would be announced at the end of the meeting.
Evaluating Broadcast Meteorologists - Drew Jackson (presentiation.pdf)
The driving reason for the change in 2005 was to enhance the standards. New features include:
The new process entailed:
The AMS does not suggest to TV stations how a weathercast should be done, but rather to offer rigorous standardized evaluations of broadcast meteorologists. Drew was asked, “Why are you serving on this Board? What is your passion here?” He said that it is fun to see a big variety of how forecasts are presented and styles.
Drew then showed a video-clip of himself, as a sample weathercast for evaluation, and asked the audience to give feedback, based on the above criteria. We then watched a video from a midwest forecaster for comparison, and performed an evaluation, then compared both evaluations. That exercise was most insightful.
Climate Change Science – the German Perspective - Kylie Dittmer (presentation.pdf)
Ten questions were asked. The main theme was the current views of German scientists on climate change and climate variability science and societal impacts. The secondary theme was how the German view differed than that of the American science community.
1. What have been the observed trends in maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and snowfall in Germany during the last 100 years? “Winter and Spring temperatures have increased…”“Autumn and Winter season precipitation has increased…” Rise of 0.8 – 1 degC during 1900-2000 (strongest 1970s to now). A 2.3 degC in winter and 0.7 degC in summer, seen in 1980-2000. Snow over declined by 30-40% at or below 300 m (1000 feet) elevations. Extreme events are increasing – heat waves, hard rainfall, storms. http://www.umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdf-k/k2974.pdf
2. Which future climate change impact(s) will have the greatest effect on Germany—rising sea level (and perhaps more coastal erosion, storm surges), flooding, altered weather patterns, or ??? “Rise in sea-level…as this will increase erosion on the north coast of Germany.” Northern areas, most agricultural land, could see precipitation drop by 50%. Ski areas in the Alps could suffer, as snowpack cover declines.www.goodentrepreneur.com/Knowledge/Features/Germany-Climate-Change-Profile
3. How will future climate change impact Germany’s natural resources – its lakes, forests, fisheries? “Ocean acidification is a growing concern for fisheries.” Agriculture may see more challenges. Tourism, especially in coastal areas, is likely to be impacted.
4. Does the German Government have a plan to deal with invasive/exotic species, due to global warming? These species could have major negative impacts on forestry, agricultural, and fisheries management. “YES...a new plan was adopted in December 2008.” Plan is comprehensive – covers human health, buildings, water & coastal resources, soil, agriculture, forestry, energy, financial markets, transportation, trade, and tourism. Main goal is to reduce vulnerability of natural and society systems. www.bmu.de/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/das_gesamt_en_bf.pdf
5. What is the German view on the causes of climate change? Review the known causes: Greenhouse Gas (man-made), Natural Cycle (solar cycle – long and short term, ocean currents – long-term change, undersea volcanism), or Blended-view (both causes). “Of course...it is both causes.”
6. In the Unites States, there is great concern about the future of the glaciers in Greenland. Will the continued melt of the Greenland glaciers reach a climate change “tipping point” that might trigger rapid climate change (i.e., a Dansgaard-Oeschger event) in the north Atlantic and a shift to colder terrestrial conditions, due to the major change in thermohaline transport? “Unknown...needs further study.”
7. Have the Germans developed any new computer climate change models to refine the assessment of global climate change impacts in the Arctic? “YES...research work is in progress.”
8. Have the Germans looked at the connection between solar forcing and climate response? Are you aware of the works of the late Dr. Theodore Landschiedt? “YES...we are aware of his work.”
9. Is Germany focused on mitigation or adaption strategies in response to climate change? “BOTH...but we emphasize Adaptation.”
10. Are there ways that American and German scientists can collaborate in a meaningful way on Climate Change issues? YES...through our universities, government agencies, and climate change forums.”
German climate research and resources: Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (www.pik-potsdam.de/institute) Max Plank Institute (www.mpg.de/en) German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (www.cbd.int/cooperation/bfn.shtml) European Environmental Agency (www.eea.europa.eu) Der Spigel <http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,686697,00.html>
A lively Q&A followed. This presentation will be given at Marylhurst University (near Lake Oswego) in the summer of 2011. Dankeschön! J
Kyle announced the election results. Bobby thanked everyone for coming!
Notes by Kyle Dittmer