Editor: Jim Elliot
Contributors: Alan Weinstein, Ginny Frost, and Julie Burba
Copy Editor: Leah Whalen
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House and Senate conferees have agreed on a NOAA FY98 budget of $2,002,139,000, the first time in NOAA's history that its budget has exceeded $2 billion, NOAA Administrator Dr. D. James Baker told reporters at a National Press Club briefing on 8 December.
The total is higher than the House proposal of $1,850,392,000 but less than the Senate proposal of $2,101,555,000. The conferees included $1,512,050,000 in the Operations, Research, and Facilities (ORF) account; $491,609,000 in the new Procurement, Acquisition, and Construction (PAC) account; and $1,480,000 in other NOAA accounts.
Of the total NOAA budget, the ORF account represents 75.3% of the total, the PAC 24.5%, and other accounts 0.1%.
A line office breakdown of the ORF account shows the following (dollars in millions).
| NWS | $520.3 |
| NMFS | $346.2 |
| OAR | $277.7 |
| NOS | $241.7 |
| NESDIS | $134.7 |
| Program support | $66.2 |
| Fleet maint./facilities | $24.8 |
| (less financing) | $102.5 |
| Total Appropriation | $1,509.1 |
The National Weather Service was awarded $520.3 million instead of $511.1 million as proposed by the House, $525.9 million as proposed by the Senate, or $503.7 million as requested by the administration. Further, an additional $132.7 million is provided within the new PAC account, previously funded under the ORF account. The conferees also agreed to provide $14.8 million elsewhere in the account. Under Local Warnings and Forecasts/Base Operations, the conferees provided $324.0 million, an increase of $10.2 million above the amount provided in the House bill and $16.0 million above the administration request.
Within these amounts, the conferees' report noted, the conferees direct NWS to provide funding, as directed in the House and Senate reports, to provide transmitters to address the concerns regarding gaps in coverage provided by NOAA Weather Radio in certain areas. In addition, within these amounts, the conferees direct the NWS to continue operating and maintaining all data buoys and coastal marine automated network stations funded and supported by NWS in FY97.
The conferees mentioned the review of NWS. "Due to the delay in completion of this review, which was not provided to the Committees until October 23, 1997, the conferees have not had sufficient opportunity to analyze the results and recommendations. However, the conferees look forward to working with NOAA and the Department to address these issues and would be willing to entertain a reprogramming of funds should additional resources be required to implement these reforms in fiscal year 1998. In addition, the conferees expect no action to be taken to reorganize the NWS, including the regional structure, without prior consultation with the Committees on Appropriations," the report noted.
"In addition, while the NWS no longer provides specialized agriculture forecasts, the conferees expect the NWS to cooperate with and provide its existing basic data and information to the agricultural community, which includes farmers, their trade associations, state agencies, educational institutions, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture," the conferees reported.
"Within the amounts available," they noted, "the conferees direct that not less than $3,300,000 be provided to the Tropical Prediction Center (National Hurricane Center) and not less than $3,000,000 be provided to the Storm Prediction Center in fiscal year 1998."
Under OAR, the conferees provided $277.7 million instead of $237.4 million as recommended by the House or $271.6 million recommended by the Senate. The conference agreement includes $60 million for the Climate and Global Change Program, an increase of $4.9 million above the amounts provided in FY97. The conferees provided the full request of $7.2 million for the International Research Institute and related Regional Application Centers, a $2 million increase over FY97.
"The conferees expect OAR to use the full $2,900,000 increase for activities directly related to El Niño, including additional support for the regional application centers as well as to develop a national applications program to improve U.S. seasonal and interannual climate forecasts," the report noted.
The conferees provided $29.4 million for long-term climate and air quality research and $37.4 million for atmospheric research. In the atmospheric area, $22.9 million was provided for marine prediction research, including the Arctic Research Initiative and the Open Ocean Aquaculture Initiative. In addition, $2.3 million is provided for tsunami mitigation; $150,000 for the Lake Champlain study; $2.2 million for the VENTS program; $4.0 million to continue an initiative for the aquatic ecosystems, water quality, and atmospheric research and facilities construction at the Canaan Valley Institute; and $1.5 million for the implementation of the National Invasive Species Act.
The conferees provided $6.0 million for the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, continuing support for near-shore research in the Great Lakes and GLERL zebra mussel research program.
The National Sea Grant College Program was provided $56.0 million with the conferees expecting NOAA to continue its oyster disease and zebra mussel research programs. The conferees provided $15.5 million for the National Undersea Research Program (NURP), of which $1.5 million is for the JASON Foundation for education.
The National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS) was provided $134.7 million. In addition, the conference agreement includes $298.9 million under the new PAC account for satellite systems acquisition and related activities, previously provided for under the ORF account.
The National Ocean Service (NOS) was provided $241.7 million instead of $223.6 million as recommended by the House or $234.8 as recommended by the Senate.
The conference agreement provides $44.0 million for NOAA's mapping and charting programs,"reflecting the conferees' continued commitment to the navigation safety programs of the NOS, and their concerns for the ability of the NOS to continue to meet its mission requirements over the long term," according to the report. Included in the NOS appropriation were $11.3 million for tide and current data; $35.3 million for ocean assessment; $7.9 million for the NOS laboratory in Charleston, South Carolina; $17.2 million for the Coastal Ocean Program; $49.7 million for coastal zone management; and $14.0 million for the Marine Sanctuary Program. Management and operations of the Charleston laboratory are being moved from NMFS to NOS.
Under the PAC account, Baker outlined the following breakdown (dollars in millions).
| NEXRAD | $6.3 |
| ASOS | $4.5 |
| AWIPS | $116.9 |
| Central computer | $5.0 |
| Polar satellites | $82.9 |
| GOES satellites | $216.0 |
| Facilities construction | $59.9 |
| Total appropriation | $491.6 |
By percentage, the breakdown is GOES satellites, 43.9%; AWIPS, 23.7%; polar satellites, 16.8%; facilities construction, 12.2%; central computer, 1.3%; and ASOS, 0.9%, according to the briefing charts.
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The chairman of the U.S. House Committee on Resources, Rep. Don Young (R-AK) has asked the secretary of commerce to "take immediate action to relieve the hiring freeze on the recruitment of new officers into the NOAA Corps."
The Reserve Officers Association of the United States (ROA) supports his request, believing the freeze is a "political attempt to kill the NOAA Corps."
In addition, the NOAA Officers' Wives Club has joined the effort, complaining that the three-year-old freeze "is having a detrimental effect on today's corps and is a significant factor in the large number of officer resignations which are occurring." The Wives Club expressed its complaint in a letter to Secretary William A. Daley from the club's president, Cheryl A. Glang.
Mrs. Glang and two others opposed to the freeze appeared at a press briefing being held by NOAA Administrator Dr. D. James Baker at the National Press Club in Washington on 8 December. They, too, questioned the motives behind the plan to terminate the NOAA Corps.
Baker responded that the NOAA Corps was highly regarded and has done and is doing an excellent job. However, he said the move to dissolve the unit came as a follow up to Vice President Al Gore's call to reinvent government and that the decision was made in the interest of efficiency and economy.
In his letter to Secretary Daley, Rep. Young wrote, "I recognize the authority of the administration to temporarily impose a hiring freeze. I am concerned, however, that the hiring freeze, which is now more than three years old, has become tantamount to a dissolution, for which the Congress has a clear constitutional responsibility. In this respect, discharges and retirements have nearly doubled in the past three years, with many very talented junior and mid-grade officers, who constitute an extremely valuable resource, leaving the NOAA Corps."
In a press release, ROA noted that Congressman Young "is not alone in his concern about the way Commerce has dealt with the NOAA Corps. The U.S. Senate held a hearing in late October to determine the future of the NOAA Corps. At that hearing, by the Senate Oceans and Fisheries Subcommittee of the Commerce Committee, the attending Senators expressed serious concern regarding the administration's proposal to dissolve the NOAA Corps."
"As a result of Chairman Young's request and the concerns expressed by the Senate," said Capt. Fred Becker, USN. JAG (Ret.), director of Sea Services for the ROA, "we simply do not understand why the department is not following the dictate to end its hiring freeze, hire to the congressionally mandated ceiling of 283, and wait for Congress to decided the future of the Corps."
In his letter to Daley, Rep. Young pointed out that the administration's plan for dissolution of the Corps was not forwarded to Congress until May of 1997. Final Congressional action on this matter was precluded, he wrote. The Commerce, Justice, State, and Judiciary and Related Agencies FY98 Appropriations Act does, however, he continued, include language that sets a ceiling of 283 officers in the NOAA Corps as of the end of FY98. As a result of pending retirements and discharges, it is anticipated that there will only be 263 officers at the end of this calendar year.
" The NOAA Corps will soon be 20 officers below its appropriated end-strength for fiscal year 1998," he noted.
"It is apparent," he wrote, "that the NOAA Corps . . . may soon compromise some of NOAA's critical functions. For example, I am concerned that the loss of NOAA Corps officers, without proven replacements, will adversely affect the efficient operation of NOAA's ships and aircraft. In particular, the loss of NOAA Corps pilots is likely to soon result in severe programmatic impacts. Furthermore, I am concerned that the unique NOAA Corps skills that support the full spectrum of hydrographic operations from data acquisition to a finished nautical chart are being lost.
"Given the vital importance of these activities, action should be taken to ensure proper staffing within the NOAA Corps until the Committee completes its review of this matter. Accordingly, I ask that you take immediate action to relieve the hiring freeze on the recruitment of new officers into the NOAA Corps."
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from Audrey T. Leath, Public Information Division, the American Institute of Physics
Several members of Congress, concerned about projections for NASA's outyear budgets, authored a recent "Dear Colleague" letter to House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA). The letter, signed by 201 House members, asks Gingrich to help ensure stronger NASA budgets in future years. The effort was initiated by Representatives Dave Weldon (R-FL), Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), and Nick Lampson (D-TX), all of whom represent districts with NASA centers (Kennedy Space Center, Lewis Research Center, and Johnson Space Center, respectively.)
The letter calls for a 4% increase, after inflation, for FY99 (to approximately $14,600 million), and 2% increases, after inflation, for fiscal years 2000 and 2001. The administration's FY99 projection for NASA was $13,400 million. Funding for NASA has decreased for the last three years, dropping by 11.6% since FY95 in constant dollars. In 1998 dollars, NASA's FY95 funding was $15,439 million; the agency's FY98 appropriation is $13,648 million. The 1 November letter to Gingrich follows.
* * * * *
The Honorable Newt Gingrich
Speaker of the House
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515
Dear Mr. Speaker:
Many of us supported the recent balanced budget agreement, demonstrating our solid commitment to the long-term fiscal health of our country. However, we are deeply concerned about the level of funding for science, space, and technology in our federal budgeting process.
In particular, NASA—despite recent challenges—serves as the symbol of our nation's preeminent scientific leadership in the international community. NASA makes important investments that probe the boundaries of our scientific, medical, and engineering knowledge, as well as motivates and inspires our children and educators. It also contributes to one of the healthiest sectors of our economy—the aerospace industry—which provides hundreds of thousands of jobs around the country.
NASA has also been among the few federal agencies held up as an example to others when it comes to budget reductions and finding efficiencies. The Agency's budget declined in real terms over the last several years—due to a mix of voluntary and mandated reductions—and NASA's civil service workforce has consistently been reduced much more sharply than other science-related departments and agencies. These reductions threaten the space-related investments we have made in capital and people.
Successfully navigating the budget reductions of the past have been difficult, although we believe they have ultimately helped NASA. However, we have reached a point at which further cuts could inflict irreparable harm on the Agency's missions and personnel, particularly NASA's ability to plan long-term initiatives. Therefore, we ask that, as you confer with the various Committees for next year's fiscal plan, you ensure that:
We believe that our civilization's future lies in space. As you look through history, civilizations that cease to explore and expand their technological frontiers cease to exist. Our nation and, indeed, our world, is at such a threshold. To turn away from the challenge of space now would deprive our children and their children of the drive to explore, and with them would be lost a historic opportunity for our nation.
Spending on the space program is one of the few forward-looking investments that we make as legislators. We do not deny that our space program faces many difficult challenges, both technical and political, but we fear the consequences of turning our backs now on space exploration, which will send a signal to many Americans that our generation lacks a vision for the future.
We believe that we can balance the budget while maintaining investments in such critical agencies as NASA, and we will continue to press NASA to operate more efficiently and reduce costs where feasible. However, the time has come for budget stability for NASA and the men and women who keep our nation at the vanguard of discovery.
We look forward to your strong support for our nation's space exploration and development efforts as you work on a bipartisan basis with the House and Senate leadership during the Fiscal Year 1999 budget process and beyond. Thank you for your attention to this very important matter.
* * * * *
While the letter is endorsed by almost half of the House membership, some important signatures are missing: House Appropriations Committee Chairman Bob Livingston (R-LA), VA/HUD Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Jerry Lewis (R-CA), Budget Committee Chairman John Kasich (R-OH), Science Committee Chairman James Sensenbrenner (R-WI), and Science Subcommittee on Space Chairman Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA.) It is also worth remembering that the first step for the FY99 budget needs to be made by the administration, in its budget submission to Congress early next year.
The letter, and a list of signatories, can be found on Rep. Weldon's Web site at http://www.house.gov/weldon, for readers who wish to know if their representative signed.
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Dr. Donald L. Albritton, Director of the Aeronomy Laboratory at the Environmental Research Laboratories (ERL) in Boulder, Colorado, and a science adviser to the U.S. delegation at the Kyoto U.N. climate summit, will deliver the keynote address at the 78th Annual Meeting of the AMS in Phoenix, Arizona, 11–16 January.
The title of his address will be "The Kyoto Climate Plan From A Science Perspective." Dr. Albritton is scheduled to make his presentation at 8 p.m., Sunday 11 January.
The Kyoto meeting ended 10 December when delegates reached an accord agreeing to substantial cuts in emission gases among industrialized nations, but leaving until next year the controversial issue of whether and how the world's poorer countries would participate.
Delegates from 159 countries worked their way to a treaty that commits the world's developed nations to unprecedented, binding limits on pollutants that many scientists say are causing a potentially disastrous warming of the Earth's atmosphere.
Under the proposal, which faces some tough hurdles in Congress, the United States would cut its emissions to 7% below 1990 levels, the Europeans would cut their emissions by 8%, and Japan would reduce its emissions by 6% by the year 2012.
The announcement of Dr. Albritton's appearance came as final preparations for the annual AMS gathering were reaching their final stages.
All primary activities for the week-long meeting have been set with only the determination of some of the major speakers yet to be resolved.
The conference itself will not get under way until Sunday 11 January. However, five short courses will be offered, one of which is a two-day activity, Mountain Meteorology, beginning on Saturday, 10 January and continuing through Sunday. Other short courses—all of which will be held on Sunday—are Air Pollution Meteorology, Satellite Meteorology, National Weather Service Data Sources and Use, and Forecast Verification—A Tribute to the work of Allan H. Murphy.
The opening session of the meeting will begin Sunday at 5 p.m. with the Annual Review and Awards Ceremony in the Flagstaff Room of the Civic Plaza Convention Center. That session will open with introductory remarks by outgoing AMS President Ron McPherson. He will be followed by the presentation of Fellow Awards and annual reports from Secretary-Treasurer Kenneth C. Spangler; Robert L. Carnahan, Professional Affairs Commission; John T. Snow, Education and Human Resources Commission; Joanne Simpson, Publications Commission; Richard D. Rosen, Scientific and Technological Activities Commission; Charles L. Hosler, Planning Commission, and Robert T. Ryan, AMS Programs in Support of Science and Education.
Also on Sunday, a presentation of NSF Support and Scientific Research and Proposal Presentation will be given from 1:30 to 3:30 p.m., a briefing for first-time attendees will be given from 3:30 to 4:30 p.m., and the formal opening of the Rossby Photo Gallery will be held from 6:30 to 7:30 p.m. The gallery also will be open daily throughout the meeting.
A special session honoring the centennial of the birth of Carl-Gustaf A. Rossby will be held Tuesday 13 January, from 8 to 9:30 a.m. Another session on that subject is planned for Thursday 15 January, also from 8 to 9:30 a.m. On Tuesday, speakers at the Rossby activity will be Norman A. Phillips and Timothy N. Palmer. On Thursday, speakers will be Eugenia Kalnay, Robert L. Gall, Melvyn Shapiro, and Bradley Colman.
A town forum to discuss the AMS 10-Year Vision Study will be held on Monday evening, from 8 to 10 p.m. All members are invited and encouraged to share their views.
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AMS has announced the recipients of its 1998 awards. Awards will be presented at the Awards Banquet at the 78th Annual Meeting, Wednesday 14 January 1998, at the Civic Plaza Convention Center in Phoenix, Arizona. For a complete list of awards, recipients, and citations, see http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS/amsedu/awards98.html.
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from Alan Weinstein
A seminar under the auspices of the Imperial College of Science, Technology, and Medicine's Graduate School of the Environment, Dr. John Woods, director, took place on 10 December. Two of its speakers, Sir John Mason of the GSE and Dr. Tim Johns of the UK Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre (people who may be familiar to readers of this newsletter), showed impressive agreement between models and observations of average temperature, which suggests an approximately 2°C global warming due to increases in CO2 in the atmosphere. This is a reduction of about 1°C from earlier estimates, due to the inclusion of direct sulfate effects in the model simulations. These and later speakers described further research on aerosols, clouds, and flux from vegetation that are needed to improve the results still further, particularly in the models' ability to project regional differences.
Other speakers described the biological (including disease) and economic consequences of global change. Here the scientific unknowns are far greater, leaving far more uncertainty in the impacts.
No matter the magnitude, regional distribution, or biological or economic impacts of global change, there can be no argument that change is under way. Hence much of the discussion centered on means to cope with this change.
The seminar coincided with the end of the Kyoto, Japan, Global Change conference. As was the case in the local press and TV, the U.S. position came under criticism.
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from Alan Weinstein
On 9 July 1997, the European Commission approved 306 new research projects under the Environment and Climate program (EaC) and five under the program for Marine Science and Technology (MAST); both programs are part of the Fourth Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (1994–98). The funding amounts to ECU 205 (~$200) million. Projects cover such diverse areas as waste water, ozone depletion, the effect of greenhouse gases on climate change—a project to be conducted jointly with researchers from the Russian Federation, flood management, the use of satellite technology for environmental monitoring, and improving the interface between research and policy.
This call resulted in 1180 proposals involving over 6000 participants from the EU and nearly 600 from other countries. The total funding requested amounted to ECU 974 million. While the nature of most of the research means that industrial participation remains below 10% overall, in the area of environmental technologies it reaches 27%, including 13% for small and medium-sized enterprises.
With an overall budget of ECU 566.5 million, the EaC program represents 4.3% of the total Fourth Framework Programme (1994–98). Its selections are in the following four areas:
Since the start of the program, there have been more than 3000 proposals with about 17 000 partners requesting some ECU 2820 million. This represents five to six times the funds available overall. Even so, the program has been able to fund 50% of all high quality proposals, involving over 4300 participants.
No further general calls are expected under the program, although calls were issued in June for the space techniques area of the program. The proposed supplementary funding for the Fourth Framework Programme still under discussion between the Council and European Parliament will involve a further call in the area dealing with water.
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Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic hurricane basin was well below normal during 1997. Only seven tropical storms formed and just three of those reached hurricane strength. In contrast, the long-term annual averages for tropical storms and hurricanes are ten and six, respectively. The yearly totals also represent a large decrease from the record pace of 1995 and 1996 and are more in line with the numbers of systems observed during the preceding four years.
Several other aspects of the activity help characterize the 1997 season. There were no tropical storms or hurricanes during the month of August for the first time since 1961. In fact, there was only one named system during the August–September period, an occurrence last noted in 1929. Only one named system was observed south of 20° latitude. This is consistent with the relatively small role played by tropical waves in the development of tropical cyclones this year. The waves contributed to the formation of just one hurricane, one tropical storm, and this season's only tropical depression (which formed and dissipated east of the Lesser Antilles in July). The tropical cyclones were relatively short-lived and weak. Only Hurricanes Danny and Erika lasted more than five days, and Erika was the only major hurricane to reach category 3 on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale. Danny was the only system to make landfall.
In addition to these systems, the National Hurricane Center has concluded from a reanalysis of data that an early season cyclone originally classified as an extratropical gale should be designated an unnumbered subtropical storm. It originated in the final days of May from an area of thunderstorms over the straits of Florida. The system gradually strengthened and accelerated toward the northeast. It is now estimated from satellite pictures to have become a subtropical depression and then a subtropical storm about 100–200 miles off the U.S. southeast coast early on 1 June. Reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the subtropical storm was at its strongest on the evening of 1 May when the system was centered off the North Carolina Outer Banks. The cyclone became extratropical about 24 h later while moving eastward well to the south of Nova Scotia.
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The El Niño phenomena apparently influenced tropical cyclone activity in the Central Pacific. Eight tropical cyclones were observed, nearly twice the 36-year average of 4.5 and substantially more than the 1995 season (1 tropical storm) and the 1996 season (two tropical depressions). The eight tropical cyclones in 1997 ties the record for the fourth highest since 1961. That was the first year that satellites were used to observe tropical cyclones. The other years with eight were 1985, 1967, and 1962. The three most active years were 1994 (11), 1992 (11), and 1982 (10).
One unusual factor was that of the eight tropical cyclones, none reached hurricane strength while in the central Pacific. There was one hurricane in 1962 and 1967 and four in 1985. This makes the third consecutive year without a hurricane in the central Pacific. The last time this occurred was in 1963–65. The main reason for the weaker systems was the persistence of strong upper-level west or southwest winds. These winds would shear the storms and they would rapidly weaken.
The genesis area appeared to be affected by the El Niño conditions as four tropical cyclones originated in the central Pacific. Work documented by the Pacific ENSO Application Center has shown that more tropical cyclones form in the Central Pacific during El Niño years.
Of the eight tropical cyclones, two were notable. Tropical Depression 2-C became Tropical Storm Oliwa on 3 September. It crossed into the western Pacific, subsequently became a typhoon and super typhoon, with winds greater than 160 mph. Oliwa passed south of Wake Island on 6 September, producing heavy showers but no damage. It then moved across the southern Japanese islands on 16 and 17 September. The second storm of note was Tropical Storm Guillermo. It moved into the central Pacific from the east on 9 August. Initially it was downgraded to a tropical depression on 10 August but then reintensified and became a tropical storm on 11 August. The storm strengthened to 65 mph when it was near 33°N 154°W. The system became extratropical on August 15 near 41°N 160°W. The extratropical low dissipated within 350 miles of the northern California coast.
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FORT COLLINS, COLORADO—This year's record El Niño is expected to dissipate before the most active part of the 1998 hurricane season but other global climate factors could produce slightly below-average hurricane activity, Colorado State University's noted hurricane researcher William Gray announced on 5 December.
In the first forecast issued for the 1998 hurricane season, Gray and his colleagues predict nine tropical storms will form in the Atlantic Basin between 1 June and 30 November. From those storms, five hurricanes will evolve and two will go on to become intense hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. On average, 9.3 tropical storms, 5.8 hurricanes, and 2.2 intense hurricanes form annually.
The team's 1998 forecast comes on the heels of a hurricane season in which activity was flattened by the strongest El Niño event on record, but the Atlantic Basin still managed to produce seven tropical storms, three hurricanes and one intense hurricane.
"Even though El Niño negatively influenced our 1997 hurricane forecast, it is our belief that this event will die before or shortly after the 1998 hurricane season officially begins," Gray said. "The most difficult aspect of the 1998 forecast is to determine whether residual effects from El Niño will have any impact on overall hurricane activity. We will have to wait and see."
When El Niño is in place, it produces upper-level westerly winds at 40 000 feet in the tropical Atlantic Ocean that help block hurricane development. Gray and other forecasters watching this El Niño believe these warm water temperatures will be replaced by cold water sometime in the early spring or summer. These cooler water temperatures, or La Niña conditions, help promote hurricane activity.
Although the strength or weakness of El Niño is a major influence on hurricane activity, Gray says that other global climate conditions offer a "mixed bag" for the upcoming hurricane season.
Negative factors for hurricane activity include the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, equatorial stratospheric winds at 68 000–75 000 feet, which are expected to blow from an easterly direction. This easterly flow tends to prevent hurricane development. When the QBO blows in a westerly direction—as it did this year—there is typically 50%–75% more hurricane activity, according to Gray.
Favoring hurricane development in 1998 are above-average sea surface temperatures in the north, east, and tropical Atlantic. When these regions are warmer during the summer and fall as they are this year, it typically helps to promote hurricane formation the following year. Supporting this is another condition known as the Azores High, a ridge of high surface pressure located near the Azores Islands in the North Atlantic. This ridge of high pressure was below the long-term average in October and November, which causes weaker east Atlantic trade winds and is more favorable for hurricane development in the following season.
An uncertain factor in the 1998 forecast is below-average rainfall in the Western Sahel region of Africa and along the Gulf of Guinea. When these two regions are drier than normal, it indicates that global conditions are such they could weaken the season's net hurricane activity. When wetter than normal conditions are present in these two regions, it typically enhances hurricane activity.
Gray and his team believe that the drier-than-average conditions in these two regions this year was brought on by El Niño and therefore should not be considered an indication that 1998 hurricane activity will be greatly reduced.
"El Niño is still hanging over our heads to some degree, because it produced some weather anomalies like the dry conditions in the Western Sahel and Gulf of Guinea," Gray said. "As we get closer to the beginning of hurricane season, we will likely have a much better picture of how these interconnected global conditions will affect storm activity."
In addition to these factors, throughout the season Gray and research team members Chris Landsea (of the NOAA Hurricane Research Division in Miami, Florida), John Knaff, Paul Mielke, and Kenneth Berry also take into account temperature and pressure readings in West Africa, Caribbean sea level pressure readings, temperature readings above Singapore at about 54 000 feet, and tropospheric winds at 40 000 feet.
Gray's hurricane forecasts—to be issued in December, April, June, and August—do not predict landfall and apply only to the Atlantic Basin, the area encompassing the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
Although the 1997 hurricane season was below average, Gray's statistics show that the period between 1995 and 1997 was still the busiest 3-yr period for hurricane activity on record. The 3-yr span generated 39 named storms, 23 hurricanes (12 of which were intense), and 115 hurricane days. Based on that record, Gray maintains his theory that the Atlantic Basin is entering an era spanning many decades of increased hurricane activity, particularly intense storms.
"El Niño was just a one-year interruption in a long cycle of increased hurricane activity," Gray said. "In the past three years, we have seen a major shift of Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures, where surface temperatures in the North and the tropical Atlantic have become considerably warmer than in the 25-year period between 1970 and 1995. This shift promotes major hurricane activity and signals that we may be entering a dangerous and heightened period of hurricane activity."
Gray's complete report can be found at http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts.
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Is the earth warming, how is humankind contributing, and what will be the consequences? These and other important questions are answered by J. D. Mahlman, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey, writing in the 21 November issue of Science.
Mahlman succinctly summarizes the current climate debate, sorts out the various principal predictions of future climate, and rates the confidence level of these predictions on a scale from "virtually certain facts" to "incorrect projections."
According to Mahlman, a virtually certain fact is that greenhouse gases, which warm the planet, are increasing. These gases affect the climate for many centuries after they enter the atmosphere. Human-caused increases in carbon dioxide and decreases in ozone in the stratosphere have already resulted in a 1°C average cooling there. Over the past century, the earth's surface has warmed about 0.5° C.
A very probable projection (greater than 9 out of 10 chance of being true) is that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over pre-industrial levels in the next century will lead eventually to an average warming of from 1.5° to 4.5° C. By 2100, average sea level could rise 25–75 cm.
A probable projection (greater than 2 out of 3 chance of being true) is that models project marked decreases in soil moisture in response to increases in summer temperatures over northern midlatitude continents. Tropical storms, once formed, might tend to become more intense.
An incorrect projection is that the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons per year will increase. (Mahlman says there is no credible evidence for this.) Winds in midlatitude, versus tropical, cyclones will become more intense. (Mahlman notes it is theoretically plausible that smaller-scale storms such as thunderstorms or squall lines could become stronger under locally favorable conditions, but the direct evidence remains weak.)
Although we cannot yet produce a sharp picture of future climate, either globally or locally, Mahlman points out that none of these known uncertainties will make the problem of human-induced greenhouse warming go away. It is virtually certain, he concludes, that this warming will continue for a long time and that the severity of impacts from a changed climate depend on resolving uncertainties in the climate system and in our success in reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.
For more information about climate change, visit the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory web page at www.gfdl.gov/gfdl_research.html.
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Human-generated increases in greenhouse gas concentrations have combined with natural forces to cause unprecedented warming in the cold Arctic in the twentieth century, according to a study by U.S.. and Canadian scientists.
This phenomenon could lead to significant changes in the earth's natural environment, according to Department of Commerce officials.
Between 1840 and the mid-twentieth century, the Arctic warmed to the highest levels of the past four centuries, causing dramatic retreats of glaciers, thawing of permafrost and sea ice, and changes in terrestrial and lake ecosystems, according to the study, published in the 14 October issue of Science Magazine.
Although significant warming in the Arctic, particularly after 1920, may be related to increases in greenhouse gases, the initiation of warming in the mid-nineteenth century suggests that natural variations, such as increased solar irradiance, decreased volcanic activity, and factors internal to the climate system also played roles in driving the post-1840s warming trend, according to the study.
Much of the Arctic research was funded by the National Science Foundation through its Arctic Systems Science (ARCSS) Paleoclimate of Arctic Lakes and Estuaries (PALE) initiative with support in Canada from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council and the Polar Continental Shelf Project.
"The climate of the Arctic has been changing rapidly, with important consequences for many parts of the Arctic system," according to Jonathan T. Overpeck, head of NOAA's Paleoclimatology Program and coordinator of the study. "The most notable pattern of change is the near ubiquitous transition from unusually cold conditions of the nineteenth century to peak warm conditions of the twentieth century."
To study climate changes that occurred before instruments were widely available, the scientists used natural archives of past climate variations such as lake and marine sediments, ice cores from glaciers and tree rings. Generations of these paleoclimatic data involved extensive field sampling of the lakes, glaciers and trees, followed by careful laboratory analysis. The use of multiple proxy sources allowed the scientists to get broad geographic coverage and also to cross check among the different proxies. The results of this work summarize multi-century climate records at 29 locations around the Arctic and furnish a new 400-year Arctic-wide average temperature record.
"Before these studies began, we had only a few decades of instrumental measurements from the Arctic, so our view of climate variations in this region was very limited," explained Ray Bradley, head of the Department of Geosciences at the University of Massachusetts and a major contributor to the research. "By extending the climate record through the use of these natural recorders of climate, we were able to place the recent changes in a longer-term perspective."
The 5-yr effort provides scientists with significant insight into how climatic change has affected the Arctic in the past and how the Arctic likely is to be impacted by climatic change in the future as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, scientists said.
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While the seasonal predictions based on El Niño conditions may point to an overall mild winter in some parts of the nation, people regardless of where they live or travel should be ready for the worst that winter can offer, officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Federal Emergency Management Agency advised.
FEMA Director James Lee Witt emphasized that "preparing in advance and knowing what to do will save many lives, including a great many of those who die every year in fires caused by improperly used space heaters, faulty furnaces, or the like."
Witt added, "You should know the winter hazards you face in your region or when you travel, how to avoid or reduce those hazards, and you should take steps now to be prepared."
Weather patterns over the United States are expected to be impacted considerably by this year's strong El Niño, especially during the winter months. NOAA's long-lead climate outlooks predict that the southern United States will be wetter than normal, while somewhat drier than normal conditions will develop in the northern High Plains and in sections of the Midwest during the fall and winter season, the typical pattern during an El Niño.
Temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal in the northern half of the United States and along the California coast, and slightly cooler than normal along the Gulf Coast during late winter and early spring. Average temperatures in the far West, the Northwest, and from the northern Great Plains eastward through New York State will generally be above normal, said Ed O'Lenic, senior meteorologist with the NOAA/National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland.
According to Kay Goss, FEMA's associate director for Preparedness, Training, and Exercises, "Our fear is that predictions of mild winter weather in some parts of the nation could tempt some people to let their guard down."
"Mild winters can still serve up some pretty powerful storms," said Kevin McCarthy, a program manager in NWS's Office of Meteorology in Silver Spring, Maryland. "One of the most memorable winter storms this century paralyzed the entire East Coast for days in March of 1993, a recent winter affected by an El Niño."
Emergency management officials point out that timely preparation, including structural and nonstructural mitigation measures to avoid the impacts of severe winter weather, can avert heavy personal, business, and government expenditures.
The best source for the most current National Weather Service forecasts and storm warnings comes from local NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts, McCarthy said. Special radios sold at most electronics stores can pick up NOAA Weather Radio frequencies. The National Weather Service operates more than 450 NOAA Weather Radio transmitters throughout the country.
More detailed information on winter preparedness and safety tips is available on FEMA's World Wide Web site at http://www.fema.gov/fema/wntsft.htm. Current weather forecasts are available on the NWS site at http://www.nws.noaa.gov.
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The computer system designed to be the cornerstone of the modernized NWS has earned one of 100 of the 1997 "Best of What's New" awards by Popular Science magazine.
The award, presented in New York on 11 November, went to the computer and communications system for AWIPS, formally known as the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System. AWIPS gives forecasters access to satellite imagery, Doppler radar data, automated weather observations, and computer-generated numerical forecasts, all in one workstation.
The AWIPS systems have become an invaluable resource to forecasters and hydrologists and will be a tremendous boon to forecast operations across the country, according to Louis J. Boezi, NWS Deputy Director for Modernization. "The NWS is developing AWIPS in incremental stages to allow for incorporating continuous user feedback into ongoing development efforts," he said.
To date, 118 of the 123 planned state-of-the-art NWS Doppler radars and 240 of the planned 306 NWS automated surface observing systems are operational nationwide, officials said. Two advanced geostationary weather satellites, GOES-8 and GOES-9, are keeping watch over the United States and well into the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. An identical third satellite, GOES-10, is available if one of the operational pair fails, according to officials. In addition, 13 river forecast centers and 113 of the planned 119 new forecast offices are serving the country.
AWIPS is being developed by the NWS; NOAA's Forecast Systems Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado; and PRC, Inc., of McLean, Virginia.
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NASA will fly an infrared laser in the cargo bay of the space shuttle to see if a space-based sensor can accurately measure global winds within the earth's atmosphere from just above the surface to a height of about 10 miles.
Successful measurements in this key region of the atmosphere could lead to improved weather forecasting and better understanding of climate-related events such as El Niño.
Based on technology tested aboard research aircraft, the Space-Readiness Coherent Lidar Experiment (Sparcle) will detect the frequency shift of an eye-safe laser pulse as it reflects off dust and aerosol particles as they move with the winds. The resulting measurements should give researchers precise information about the speed, direction, and vertical profile of tropospheric winds.
Due to launch in 2001 at an estimated cost of $15 million, Sparcle will be managed by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama, as the second earth-orbiting mission in the agency's New Millennium Program. If successful, a more robust system based on Sparcle could be a candidate for launch aboard a free-flying satellite within the following few years.
"After several years of critical basic research, the technology to accomplish these measurements has only just reached the point that we could consider demonstrating this promising concept on a space shuttle flight," said William Townsend, acting associate administrator for NASA's Office of Mission to Planet Earth. "If this experiment is successful, we expect that the operational deployment of such a capability would produce substantial improvements in the accuracy of weather forecasts, and new insights into the causes and effects of climate change."
Global wind data from an orbiting system has been identified as the number one item on a "wish list" of measurements compiled by the international operational meteorology community, according to Dave Emmitt, Sparcle mission scientist and a research assistant professor at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville.
"This is an exciting time for a number of people who have, until now, had only paper studies to convince their colleagues that winds could be measured accurately from space with lasers," Emmitt added. "The global community of atmospheric researchers, weather forecasters, and weather-sensitive industries will be watching as NASA explores this new frontier of space-based laser sensing of the earth's winds."
The experiment will be carried to orbit and back in two space shuttle hitchhiker canisters that weigh approximately 200 lbs (320 kg) each. Researchers hope to obtain approximately 50 h of wind data.
Other partners in the development of Sparcle include NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia; the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California; the University of Alabama at Huntsville; and several private companies.
A mission called Earth Orbiting-1, scheduled for launch in May 1999, will demonstrate an advanced land imager system with a multispectral capability that can replace the current measurement approach used by such systems as the Landsat satellites. It will also demonstrate a hyperspectral capability that can break up the radiation reflected by the earth's land surfaces into hundreds of distinct bands, as compared to the half-dozen bands common on today's remote-sensing spacecraft.
The primary goal of the New Millennium program is to identify, develop, and validate in flight key instrument and spacecraft technologies that can lower the cost and increase the performance of science missions in the twenty-first century. The overall program is managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory for NASA's Office of Space Science and Office of Mission to Planet Earth, Washington, D.C.
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Release of the first data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was expected in mid-December following the successful launch of the spacecraft aboard a Japanese H-II rocket on 27 November.
"After all these years," sighed Dr. Joanne Simpson, the TRMM project scientist who has worked on the development of the project from the beginning. "It's unbelievable."
"We had a wonderful launch and have been able to turn on all our instruments early," the former president of AMS explained. Although actual data will not be released for some time yet, she said indications are that the spacecraft is collecting valuable information about the typhoon currently moving through the Pacific.
Launched from the Japanese Space Center at Tanegashima, the rocket lifted off at 4:27 p.m. EST. Fourteen minutes later, the TRMM satellite separated from the rocket's second stage, followed by the successful deployment of the solar arrays and the high-gain antenna.
Following 11 days in orbit, the spacecraft continued to operate according to plan, explained Tom LaVigna, TRMM Project Manager at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, where the spacecraft was built.
"We are very pleased with the mission to date," LaVigna said on 8 December. "We anticipate the release of the first data from two of the instruments within a few days."
On 3 December, the first of several orbit adjust maneuvers was performed as controllers fired the propulsion thrusters. These maneuvers followed the last of three descent maneuvers on 30 November, culminating with TRMM arriving at its planned circular orbit of 217 miles (350 km).
With the spacecraft at its operational orbit, detailed checkout of the Precipitation Radar (PR) and the Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments was begun. The orbit ranges between 35° north and 35° south of the equator, allowing TRMM to fly over each position of the earth's surface at a different local time each day.
TRMM is the first space mission dedicated to studying tropical and subtropical rainfall. The primary objective of the program is to obtain and study multiyear datasets of tropical and subtropical rainfall measurements; to understand how interactions between the sea, air, and land masses produce changes in global rainfall and climate; to improve modeling of tropical rainfall processes and their influence on global circulation to predict rainfall and variability at various periods of time; and to test, evaluate, and improve satellite rainfall measurement techniques.
There are five instruments aboard the spacecraft: the PR, provided by Japan; a Lightning Imaging Sensor, from Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama; the CERES, from the Langley Research Center, Virginia, and the remaining two instruments, the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Viable Infrared Scanner (VIS), provided by Goddard Space Flight Center.
Dr. Simpson also announced that, following the launch, she turned over the project scientist responsibilities to her deputy, Dr. Chris Kummerow.
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A major step in the merger and streamlining of government weather satellite programs has been initiated with the installation of a new satellite control system in a Commerce Department facility, the department announced.
"This installation represents a major milestone in the planned merger of two environmental satellite programs operated by the federal government—the Defense Department's and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's," said James T. Mannen, director of the Integrated Program Office. "The elimination of separate systems is projected to save taxpayers more than $678 million through FY99. This figure jumps to nearly $1.8 billion over the life of the program, when compared with the cost of continuing to acquire and operate separate systems."
The new system will be used to operate environmental satellites in the Defense Department's Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). These satellites are currently operated by an Air Force Space Command squadron at Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska.
Under a plan to combine the Defense Department's program with NOAA's polar-orbiting environmental satellite program, NOAA will be responsible for operating both systems. Installation of the new equipment is the first in a series of steps leading to combined operations from Suitland. NOAA is scheduled to begin operations of the DMSP satellites next summer.
The installation of the Integrated Polar Acquisition and Control Subsystem is currently taking place in Suitland. The equipment, developed by Integral Systems Incorporated, teamed with Harris Corporation and Lockheed Martin, recently passed its first major development test, and installation began.
NOAA currently operates two polar-orbiting environmental satellites and two geostationary satellites. Operation of the DMSP satellites will add two polar-orbiting satellites to NOAA's responsibility. Eventually, the combined polar system will consist of three polar-orbiting satellites—two U.S. satellites and one European satellite. NOAA's geostationary constellation of two satellites will not be affected.
The next major phase in the convergence effort is the development and acquisition of a single National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite system (NPOESS) capable of meeting both civil and military requirements for space-based environmental data.
The NPOESS will become operational toward the latter half of the next decade and will eventually replace the current systems operated by the Defense Department and NOAA. The convergence effort is a result of Vice President Gore's National Performance Review, known as Reinventing Government.
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Eleven offers have been selected for contract negotiations in the first phase of NASA's planned purchase of earth science data and related information products that meet both commercial needs and the agency's scientific requirements.
"This is truly a new way of doing business for NASA," said William Townsend, acting associate administrator for the NASA Office of Mission to Planet Earth, Washington, D.C. "But it's just one step in a longer, multifaceted process of NASA working more aggressively with industry and other nongovernmental organizations to advance scientific understanding of our earth as a total environmental system."
The U.S. Congress approved the plan to initiate the data purchase activity in the FY97 NASA budget. It will be managed by the NASA Commercial Remote Sensing Program at Stennis Space Center, Stennis, Mississippi, the agency's lead center for fostering commercial applications of NASA earth science data and related technology.
A request for offers was made by NASA in May 1997 to provide unique earth science data and related information products for purchase. The purchased information will be used by research teams within NASA's earth science enterprise, which manages the agency's portion of an internationally coordinated research effort to study the earth's land, oceans, atmosphere, ice, and life as a global environmental system.
By purchasing data upon delivery from private industry instead of developing, building, and launching new satellites, NASA may be able to conduct and expand its scientific investigations at a much lower cost while encouraging the growth of this economic sector, Townsend said.
The first phase of this effort will cover a maximum six-month period to be spent analyzing and validating sample data sets. Those proposals selected to continue to Phase II will receive a letter describing the price, quantity of data, and its required characteristics, based on terms and conditions commonly found in the commercial marketplace.
Awards were based on several criteria, including "best science value" to the government, and the degree to which the offered data met the business and performance characteristics of the solicitation, including scientific utility, data rights, and the proposed price.
The successful offerors are the following.
Earth Satellite Corporation, Rockville, Maryland, will provide a medium-resolution common global geographic reference database using Landsat Multispectral and Thematic Mapper images.
Jackson and Tull/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Seabrook, Maryland, will provide high-volume, on-site ocean data using demonstration ocean buoys with interactive telemetry links.
User Systems/Space Imaging-EOSAT, Gambrills, Maryland, will process and provide distribution capability for 18 terabytes of Shuttle Imaging Radar data in support of land surface classification research.
Earthwatch, Longmont, Colorado, will provide high-resolution imagery from the Earlybird commercial remote-sensing satellite, over the Upper San Padre Basin, California, and Stennis Space Center. Phase II imagery acquisitions will be determined by the earth science community.
The University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, will provide a complete dataset of upper-tropospheric water vapor and cloudiness data using the Visible/Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder aboard U.S. GOES weather satellites.
Space Imaging-EOSAT, Thornton, Colorado, will provide 3-ft (1-m) resolution panchromatic and 13-ft (4-m) resolution multispectral imagery. In Phase I it will be simulated; Phase II data will be from the IKONOS satellite constellation that will be launched by the company later this year.
Final Analysis, Lanham, Maryland, will provide measurements of atmospheric aerosols and trace gases from the deployment of a planned 12-satellite constellation.
Positive Systems, Whitefish, Montana, will provide 3-ft (1-m) resolution multispectral imagery over the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico.
TRW Civil & International Systems Division, Redondo Beach, California, will provide airborne hyperspectral imagery (384 channels) based over the highly characterized region around Jasper Ridge, California.
Astrovision, Inc., Stennis Space Center, Mississippi, will provide 24-h imagery from geostationary orbit to provide real-time documentation of public and environmental hazards such as tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning, fires, volcanoes, meteors, and floods.
Resource 21, Englewood, Colorado, will provide data for extracting land resources management information from multispectral imagery that could provide continuity with Landsat-7 data.
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NASA has selected two dozen proposals, in two categories, to develop working prototypes of innovative uses and applications of the agency's earth science data and related research.
Known as the Earth Science Information Partners (ESIPs), the awards respond to a July 1996 National Research Council recommendation that NASA evaluate alternative implementation of product generation, publication, and user services for the agency's planned Earth Observing System (EOS) science data system. The evaluation will be initiated beginning with a limited set of pilot or prototype projects operating in a federated rather than a centrally managed architecture. The Type 2 and 3 ESIPs, together with NASA, will determine the management, system interoperability, and organizational interfaces necessary to establish the Working Prototype Federation.
Two Cooperative Agreement Notices issued by NASA in May 1997 solicited proposals from all sources, including industry and academia, reflecting two of the three types of ESIPs (Type 1 functions are currently performed by the existing Distributed Active Archive Centers). Successful ESIP 3 organizations are expected to become financially self-sustaining by the end of this pilot project.
Type 2 ESIPs are focused on data and information products in support of global change research that are developmental or research-oriented, with emphasis on flexibility and creativity in meeting advanced scientific applications. Type 3 ESIPs will be responsible for extending the benefits of NASA earth science data and information beyond basic research to a broader user community including private industry, value-added companies, state and local governments, and nonprofit organizations.
Twelve each of Type 2 and Type 3 working prototype ESIPs were selected for the experimental phase of defining, demonstrating, and validating the federation approach to performing selected major functions of the EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS). Total funding for this set of initial working prototype ESIPs is approximately $50 million over the 3- to 5-yr lifetime of the selected projects.
"This is a significant step in the evolution of our approach to earth system science data archiving and distribution," said William Townsend, acting associate administrator for the NASA Office of Mission to Planet Earth, Washington, D.C. "The Type 2 ESIPs concept is comparable to our move toward principal investigator-driven spacecraft that are smaller, cheaper, and faster. With our Type 3 ESIPs, we are working cooperatively with the private sector and the broader user community to greatly extend the use of our data. This future-oriented strategy is just becoming possible because of the tremendous pace of information technology innovation. We have a nice mix of projects to learn from, and I have very high expectations for this experiment."
From 50 Type 2 proposals submitted, NASA has selected three proposals focusing on land-cover and land-use change issues, three proposals focusing on oceanography or hydrology, three proposals concentrating on atmospheric research data, and three proposals that integrate interdisciplinary issues, including one on environmental factors in public health. Two proposals have a U.S. regional focus.
The selected Type 2 ESIPs and their titles are as follows.
From 65 Type 3 proposals submitted, NASA has selected 12 proposals that cover roughly 15 scientific disciplines. Five proposals deal with regional applications; three proposals focus on agriculture; two proposals focus on coastal and marine applications; three proposals deal with education and public outreach; and two proposals provide special applications to extend MTPE data to non-Earth science research communities.
The selected Type 3 ESIPs and their titles are as follows.
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NASA has approved an immediate new start for the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) mission and has placed the first delivery order issued under the Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (ID/IQ) contracts for rapid delivery of satellite core systems to Ball Aerospace Systems Division, Boulder, Colorado. The ID/IQ procurement method provides NASA a faster, better, cheaper method for the purchase of satellite systems through a "catalog," allowing for shorter turnaround time from mission conception to launch.
The mission will fill in the ocean-wind vector data gap created by the loss of the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) on the Japanese Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) spacecraft. The NSCAT instrument ceased functioning when ADEOS failed on 30 June 1997. The follow-on scatterometer for monitoring ocean winds, called SeaWinds, is scheduled for launch on the Japanese ADEOS-II spacecraft in 2000. QuickSCAT is planned for launch in November 1998, reducing the data gap by about half.
"The challenge levied to us requires the satellite, instrument, ground system, and launch vehicle be developed, integrated, and launched in less than a year, something that has not been accomplished before," said Jim Graf, the QuikSCAT project manager at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, California.
Measuring ocean winds is important because winds are a driving force for oceanic motions, ranging from small-scale waves to large-scale systems of ocean currents. Winds directly affect the turbulent exchanges of heat, moisture and greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and the ocean. These air–sea exchanges, in turn, determine regional weather patterns and shape global climate. Ocean winds data collected before the loss of NSCAT showed great promise in improving scientists' ability to forecast the movement of tropical storm systems—one reason why NASA wants to bring this capability back on-line as soon as possible.
"To accomplish this extremely short schedule, the satellite was chosen from a source with existing satellite hardware and Ball was chosen under NASA's newly instituted Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity contracts to be the spacecraft contractor," said Graf. "The instrument will be assembled by JPL from SeaWinds hardware spares."
QuikSCAT is planned for launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, aboard a Titan II vehicle. Total cost for the QuikSCAT mission is approximately $93 million, including $39 million to Ball for the spacecraft and $22 million for the launch vehicle. JPL's cost to develop the instrument is $13 million. Congress approved NASA's use of FY97 appropriated funds to undertake the mission.
As a parallel effort, NASA intends to issue a solicitation for scientific data to determine whether any such capabilities exist in the commercial sector. If such data were available it could have the potential to achieve cost savings or the added benefit of a backup source of data if a problem were to arise with the QuikSCAT mission.
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Thomas Jordan, head of the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences (EAPS) at MIT announced the creation of a new program, the Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate (PAOC), which will replace the Center for Meteorology and Physical Oceanography (CMPO). Professor Carl Wunsch, the Cecil and Ida Green Professor of Physical Oceanography at MIT, will be the director of the new program.
"The study of the earth's climate—past, present and future—is one of the most active research areas in the geosciences and also one of the most challenging, because the understanding of climate and related issues, like human-induced climate change, requires an integration across the full spectrum of disciplines that concern the earth system," explained Prof. Jordan.
The EAPS Department has long been involved in climate research through its activities in atmospheric science, oceanography, paleoclimatology, etc., but the initiative seeks to broaden the interaction with other departments at MIT, ranging from the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering to the Economics Department and the Sloan School. It will integrate the program in climate education across disciplines allowing graduate and undergraduate students the opportunity to study the problems of climate and climate change. The Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate will include all of the faculty and students constituting the former Center for Meteorology and Physical Oceanography within EAPS, plus faculty and students in hydrology, chemical oceanography, paleoclimatology, and geophysics. PAOC faculty will continue to supervise existing degree programs in atmospheric sciences and the Joint Program in Oceanography with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. A Center for Global Change Science was established within EAPS in 1990, and the research carried out there will support the educational programs within the new program.
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The Rivers Curriculum Project is conducting its sixth annual summer training on the campus of North Park University in Chicago, Illinois (19–24 July), and Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville, Illinois (2–7 August). Teachers will focus on one of six curriculum areas while receiving interdisciplinary training in all. The six units, now published by Addison-Wesley, are biology, chemistry, earth science, geography, language arts, and mathematics. The units were developed under a grant from the National Science Foundation. Trainers for the week-long session are practicing Rivers Project teachers who are supported by university and other professionals.
Teachers and other professionals interested in working with water testing education can attend the training scheduled for 19-24 July at North Park University in Chicago or 2-7 August at Southern Illinois University in Edwardsville. For the second summer, the Friends of the Chicago River will cosponsor the Chicago area training that will focus on urban rivers. Tuition (two semester hours credit, Summer 1998) and curricular materials will be available. A noncredit option is available. Lodging and food will be available at a low cost. Interdisciplinary teams from the same school are encouraged.
Interested persons can call for information on the training or the curriculum units at the Rivers Project, 618-692-3788, fax 618-692-3359, by e-mail at rivers@siue.edu, or via the World Wide Web at http://www.siue.edu/OSME/river.
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Wilbur C. Trafton, associate administrator for the Office of Space Flight at NASA Headquarters, has announced he plans to leave NASA in December.
Trafton has been the space agency's top official for human space flight since March 1996. During his tenure, the space shuttle has flown 13 missions successfully, and the International Space Station program has moved from planning to the production of almost a quarter-million pounds of flight hardware.
Trafton came to NASA as director of the space station program in January 1994. In that position, he was responsible for overall planning, budgeting, and management of the International Space Station, a joint project involving Russia, the European Space Agency, Japan, Canada, and the United States.
The space station, the largest international scientific cooperative effort in history, now involves 16 nations and is less than one year from launch of the first components.
Trafton said he would announce his future plans at a later date.
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