Editor: Jim Elliott

Contributor:Stephanie Kenitzer

Copy Editor: Marcie Bernstein

Volume 21, Number 10, November 2000

AMS NEWS

AMS Preparing to Brief Next Administration on Natural Hazards

Final Preparations Under Way for 81st AMS Annual Meeting in Albuquerque

AMS and UCAR Planning to Host Summer Policy Colloquium

Council to Vote on AMS Headquarters Renovations

AMS Hosted Ceremony for Presentation of IMO Prize to Edward Norton Lorenz

GOVERNMENT NEWS

Most Federal Appropriations Bills Completed; Atmospheric Science Funding Increased Overall

National Science Foundation FY01 Appropriations Bill Final

NASA FY01 Funding Bill Final

Morella Technology Transfer Bill to Become Law

INDUSTRY NEWS

Aquila Launches Long-Term Forecasting Competition

Weather Information for Surface Transportation Forum Scheduled for Early December

CLIMATE

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report Confirms Man-Made Pollution Contributed to Global Warming

Extreme Weather Events on the Rise as Greenhouse Gases Drive Climate

Past Observations Are Prologue to Future Climate Changes, Scientists Say

Worsening Urban Air Pollution Won't Increase Global Temperature over Next 100 Years

Origin of Life on Earth May Have Begun with Tiny Atmospheric Droplets

Australians Propose to Reduce Greenhouse Gases by Burying Them

Department of Energy Adds New Data on Carbon Fluxes to “Trends Online” Web Site

WEATHER AND WATER

U.S. Flood Damage Losses Rise to $5 Billion in the 1990s

Florida State Researchers Develop Technique to Improve Weather and Hurricane Prediction

National Weather Service Predicts Winter Weather Will Probably Return to Normal

Scientists Speculate that a Giant Wave Could Engulf the Eastern United States

FEMA Launches New Public Service Announcement

National Ice Center Reports New Iceberg in the Ross Sea

SATELLITES AND SPACE

NOAA Satellites Provide Early Warning of Drought to Countries around the World

NOAA, National Space Club Seek Nominations for David Johnson Award

Scientists Say Antarctic Ozone Hole Earlier, but Not Deeper, This Year

Internet Space Science Education Resource Directory Now Available

Volume Two of EOS Data Products Handbook Now Available

PEOPLE IN THE NEWS

National Council of Industrial Meteorologists Elects Jill Hasling President

National Weather Service Names Dean Gulezian as Eastern Region Director

Electronic Theater’s Fritz Hasler Demonstrates Another Expertise

Sharon Foster Named Executive Director of U.S. Centennial of Flight Commission

Teresa Bals-Elsholz, New York Graduate Student, Wins Desert Research Institute’s Award for Women in Atmospheric Sciences

AMS NEWS

AMS Preparing to Brief Next Administration on Natural Hazards

The American Meteorological Society is working with other parties to urge a new national approach to natural hazards. Together they have prepared a brief document that outlines specific steps the incoming administration can take to reduce disasters and their impact in the United States. More than 20 groups have agreed to cosign. After the paper has been formally submitted to the new administration's transition team, it will be delivered to all members of the new Congress and made available to our members as well.

Final Preparations Under Way for 81st AMS Annual Meeting in Albuquerque

Final preparations are under way for the 81st annual meeting of the AMS in Albuquerque, New Mexico, 14–19 January 2001.

Following a new format being used for the first time at this meeting, sessions will be held Sunday through Thursday 14–18 January. They will be structured around two interdisciplinary symposia with broad appeal within the science community: "Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses" and "Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts."

The precipitation symposium will focus on all aspects of quantitative precipitation forecasting, and the climate variability symposium will examine the ocean's role in past, current, and future climate variability on seasonal to centennial timescales.

The entire morning of January 17 will be devoted to the first Presidential Policy Forum, entitled "Opportunities for 21st Century Meteorology: New Markets for Weather and Climate Information." At this time there are expanding opportunities to profit from the provision of weather and climate products and services. By bringing together representatives of weather and/or climate sensitive industries, the providers of those products and services, and those familiar with the policies that could enhance the opportunities, it is anticipated that the forum will provide attendees with insights into the opportunities and an understanding of relevant policies. For more details, see the meeting program information on the AMS Web site.

The meeting will include a number of interdisciplinary conferences and symposia that have become traditional at the AMS annual meetings, including the 17th International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS); 15th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; 12th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations; 11th Symposium on Meteorological and Oceanographic Instrumentation; 10th Symposium on Education; the Fifth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems; and a Millennium Symposium on Atmospheric Chemistry: Past, Present, and Future of Atmospheric Chemistry.

Jean-Michel Cousteau, founder and president of the Ocean Futures Society, will be a featured keynote speaker. Planned sessions and abstracts are available on the AMS Web site at http://www.ametsoc.org/ams/meet/81annual/.

More than 100 companies will be exhibiting state-of-the-art products and services for the atmospheric science community. In addition, two short courses and one workshop are scheduled for Sunday 14 January 2000. For more details see the AMS Web site at http:/www.ametsoc.org/ams.

AMS and UCAR Planning to Host Summer Policy Colloquium

The AMS and the University Cooperative for Atmospheric Research are finalizing plans to host a Summer Policy Colloquium from 3 to 12 June 2000. The colloquium will bring together a select group of scientists, federal managers, private-sector executives, students, and faculty in Washington, D.C., for an intense immersion in atmospheric policy.

The specific goals of the colloquium are to provide an overview of policy basics, and how decisions are made governing the course and future of atmospheric science; to provide opportunities for participants to meet and dialog with the federal officials, Congressional staffers, and others who make those decisions; to survey current atmospheric policy issues; to use the case study method to explore a limited number of issues, both past and present, in depth and in detail; to enable participants to gain skills, experience, and contacts they can use throughout their careers to understand and influence the atmospheric policy process; and to help participants gauge whether they are attracted to the challenges of matching atmospheric science to national priorities, and scientific program leadership.

Over the 10-day period, participants will meet and talk with senior Washington policy officials representing the White House, federal agencies, and the Congress; participate in a 1-day AMS Workshop on Administration Priorities in Meteorological Services and Science; and build relationships and establish networks that will advance the effectiveness of their research and at the same time enhance the service of atmospheric science to mankind.

More details on the colloquium and the student application process will soon be available on the AMS Web site at http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS under the Atmospheric Policy Program or contact Dr. William Hooke at (202) 682-9006, e-mail: hooke@dc.ametsoc.org.

Council to Vote on AMS Headquarters Renovations

At the 81st Annual Meeting in Albuquerque, New Mexico, the AMS Council will consider and decide what action to take in response to problems identified in the historic AMS Headquarters facility at 45 Beacon Street.

An architectural evaluation of the main house, last winter, revealed significant problems with the fire protection system, electrical systems, plumbing, and HVAC. These problems must be corrected to continue operations at 45 Beacon Street. The architect estimated repair/renovation costs in excess of $2 million. The proposed source of funds is the AMS Reserve Fund, which has for many years included an adequate portion of the principle set aside for such a contingency.

An ad hoc committee was formed last spring to determine if repair/renovation of the main house is the best strategy to meet current and future AMS Headquarters facility requirements. The committee includes Jack Hayes (lead), Fred Carr, Mary Glackin, Nick Keener, Paul Try, Louis Uccellini, and John Vogel. The committee considered whether leasing or buying space at an alternate location would be a less costly alternative to renovating and remaining at 45 Beacon Street. Its assessment, which was briefed at the AMS Council Meeting (27–28 September 2000), is that renovating and continuing operations at 45 Beacon Street is a sound strategy to meet current and projected AMS Headquarters facility needs.

For additional information, contact Ron McPherson or Keith Seitter at AMS Headquarters, or any member of the ad hoc committee. Comments/questions received by 5 January 2001 will be included in the January AMS Council deliberations.

AMS Hosted Ceremony for Presentation of IMO Prize to Edward Norton Lorenz

The American Meteorological Society hosted a special ceremony last month for the presentation of the 45th International Meteorological Organization Prize to Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor Emeritus of Meteorology Edward Norton Lorenz. The ceremony and reception, held on 30 October at the Boston Museum of Science, was attended by colleagues, friends, family, and MIT students.

Speakers at the award ceremony included Dr. Lawrence S. Bacow, chancellor of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and John J. Kelly, director of the National Weather Service and permanent representative to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

G.O.P Patrick Obasi, WMO secretary general, gave a brief history of the IMO Prize, and John W. Zillman, WMO president, presented the prize to Professor Lorenz.

The IMO Prize is the top international prize in the field of meteorology and related geophysical sciences. The IMO, the predecessor organization of WMO, was established in Vienna in 1873. When WMO was established in 1950, it took over the assets of IMO, which are used to support the annual award of this prize. (See full story on Ed Lorenz at http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS/.)

GOVERNMENT NEWS

Most Federal Appropriations Bills Completed; Atmospheric Science Funding Increased Overall

Nearly all of the 13 Federal appropriations bills have cleared the House and Senate and are on the president’s desk awaiting final signature before becoming law. The final NOAA funding appropriation (part of the Commerce, State, and Justice Bill) has cleared Congress and is awaiting White House signature.

Overall, atmospheric science programs fared well, with increases in the NASA and National Science Foundation, although specific numbers for all the programs are not yet available. A complete budget story will appear in the December 2000 AMS Newsletter.

Some highlights include the following:

• Congress passed the FY01 VA, HUD and Independent Agencies Appropriations Bill on 19 October. The bill includes a record $7.8 billion for the Environmental Protection Agency. Compared to last year, there are large increases for operating programs including an additional $20 million for the climate change technology initiative voluntary program.

• The bill also appropriates $14.285 billion for NASA in FY02. This is $250 million above the president's request and $685 million over the FY00 level. Congress provided the additional $250 million above the president's request to offset most of the $300 million worth of earmarks within NASA. The net result will be that NASA will have to distribute about $47 million worth of earmarks throughout the budget. It is unknown how this will be allocated. (See related story for more details.)

• Finally, the VA, HUD and Independent Agencies Bill funds the National Science Foundation at approximately $4.43 billion, a $529 million increase over FY00. NSF Director Rita Colwell described the 8.4% increase as “the largest increase the foundation has ever received in real or constant dollars.” President Clinton has requested a 17.1% increase. (See related story for more details.)

The House passed the Commerce, Justice, State conference report, which includes funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, on Thursday 26 October. The bill was also passed by the Senate and now goes to the president for signature. The President has threatened to veto the bill because it excludes language on immigration, tobacco litigation, hate crime legislation, and Social Security privacy. See table below for budget details.

Budget information was compiled from various sources including UCAR, Congressional web sites, and Federal agencies. It is important to note that the budget numbers are not final until the president signs the appropriations bills.

National Science Foundation FY01 Appropriations Bill Final

Congress passed the FY01 VA, HUD and Independent Agencies Appropriations Bill, which includes a budget of $4.426 billion for the National Science Foundation, more than half a billion dollars ($529 million) or 8.4% above the FY00 appropriation. President Clinton has requested a 17.1% increase.

The appropriators provided $3.35 billion for Research and Related Activities (RRA), instead of the $3.12 billion proposed by the House and $3.25 suggested by the Senate. The conference agreement provides an increase of $384 million above the FY00 appropriation for this account.

Bill language provides up to $275.5 million of the amount for polar research and operations support. It also provides $215 million for the information technology initiative, $75 million for the biocomplexity initiative, $65 million for plant genome research for economically significant crops, $150 million for the new nanotechnology initiative, $75 million for major research instrumentation, $94.9 million for facilities within the astronomical sciences activity, and $1 million to begin design and model testing of a vessel to replace the Research Vessel (R/V) Alpha Helix.

Under the Major Research Equipment (MRE) account, the bill provides $121.6 million instead of $76.6 million as proposed by the House and $109 million proposed by the Senate. The conference agreement provides the budget request level for all ongoing projects with the MRE account, including $45 million for the development and construction of a second single-site, five-plus teraflop computing facility The conferees noted they were encouraged by the recent progress made in the development of the first terascale facility and urged the foundation to move as quickly as possible in soliciting proposals for the second facility.

The conference agreement also provides $12.5 million to continue production of the High Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER). This new high-altitude research aircraft will, upon its completion, be available to support critical and outstanding atmospheric science research opportunities over the next 25 to 30 years, according to the report.

The bill appropriates $787.3 million for education and human resources instead of $694.3 million as proposed by the House and the $765.3 million suggested by the Senate. Bill language requires that from within available funds, $10 million be for the Office of Innovation Partnerships.

Within this appropriated level, the conferees provided $75 million for the Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR). They also provided $15 million for the HBCU-UP program, including $14 million from the Education and Human Resources (EHR) account and $1 million from the RRA account.

The conferees provided an increase of $10 million above the budget request level for the Informal Science Education (ISE) program. This increase is intended to provide additional resources to expand the pool of ISE grantees to providers in smaller communities, ensuring that the impact of the program reaches an even more diverse audience.

The conference agreement further provides $34.2 million for Advanced Technology Education; $13 million for the SMETE Digital Library; $19.7 million for Graduate Teaching Fellowships in K–12 Education; $16.5 million for programs designed for women and persons with disabilities; and $55.2 million for the Graduate Research Fellowships program, and for the FY01 budget requests for the Louis Stokes Alliance for Minority Participation program, the new Tribal Colleges program, the Minority Graduate Education program, the Centers of Research Excellence in Science and Technology program, and the Model Institutions for Excellence program.

The conferees also agreed to provide $11.2 million for the new Scholarships for Service program.

The bill appropriates $160.8 million for salaries and expenses instead of $152 million as proposed by the House and $170.8 million proposed by the Senate. The conferees noted that the $3 million increase above the budget request is for travel expenses that the budget submissions proposed to fund from within the RRA and the EHR accounts instead of from within salaries and expenses. Accordingly, the report indicated, the conferees direct the NSF to fund employees from within salaries and expenses, consistent with existing practice.

The Office of Inspector General was provided $6.2 million as proposed by the Senate instead of $5.7 million as proposed by the House.

NASA FY01 Funding Bill Final

Congress passed the FY01 VA, HUD and Independent Agencies Appropriations Bill on 19 October, providing the nation's space agency with what NASA Administrator Dan Goldin described as "an excellent budget."

The bill appropriates $14.285 billion for NASA in FY02. This is $250 million above the president's request and $633 million more than the FY00 level.

“Thanks to the efforts of key members of the House and Senate, and with the support of the administration, this measure provides an excellent budget for NASA,” Goldin said. "Our supporters in the Congress faced considerable difficulties in reaching this outcome," he explained, "and we should all be very grateful for their championing of the nation's civil space and aeronautics program."

The bill fully funds the president's program for NASA, including all high-priority initiatives: the Space Launch Initiative, Shuttle upgrades, the International Space Station, and Living with a Star. It also includes funding, as proposed by NASA, for two Mars rover missions in 2003.

NASA budget officials explained that overall distribution of the FY01 funds was still being conducted within the agency. The Earth Sciences account is expected to end up with "a little less than $1.5 billion," predicted one official. The President had requested $1.405 billion. Last year, Earth Sciences received $1.443 billion.

The International Space Station is funded at $2.114 billion, $211 million below FY00, and the Mission to Mars program is funded at $420 million.

"At a time when the public has become increasingly concerned regarding aviation safety, the Congress also fully funded the administration's proposals for the Small Aircraft Transport System and the Aviation Systems Capacity Program," Goldin said in a statement issued on 20 October. Finally, the bill provides extended buyout authority for NASA to assist in workforce rebalancing and restructuring without loss of FTEs (full-time equivalents), and for submittal of the FY02 budget in a full-cost mode.

"This is a budget that is moving in the right direction. The Congress has recognized that the revolution has taken hold at NASA, and that our faster, better, cheaper way of doing business has allowed us to do more for less with spectacular mission success, while increasing productivity."

Morella Technology Transfer Bill to Become Law

Congress unanimously enacted Congresswoman Connie Morella's Technology Transfer Commercialization Act, H.R. 209 on 17 October 2000. The bill is now headed to the President for his signature into law. The President has already indicated his support by stating that the legislation "will significantly facilitate the licensing of government-owned inventions by Federal agencies."

Congresswoman Morella said, "Each day, research and development programs at our nation's federal laboratories produce new innovations that often have commercial applications. Through technology transfer, our Federal laboratories can share the benefits of our national science investment with all Americans while also enhancing our international competitiveness."

The purpose of the new law is to increase partnerships with Federal laboratories by reforming the technology licensing of government-owned inventions. It will be the second technology transfer legislation enacted by Congresswoman Morella as the Chair of the House Technology Subcommittee.

She was also the author of the National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (Public Law 104-113) that provided for greater cooperative research between industry and Federal laboratories.

"The economic advances of this new century will be rooted in the research and development performed in our nation's laboratories," said Congresswoman Morella. "These advances are becoming even more dependent upon the continuous transfer of technology into commercial goods and services."

INDUSTRY NEWS

Aquila Launches Long-Term Forecasting Competition

For the first time in history, a private company is putting the atmospheric science community to the test, literally. Aquila Energy, a wholly owned subsidiary of UtiliCorp United (NYSE: UCU), is challenging the meteorological/climatological community to improve long-range forecast techniques and resulting forecast skill with forecast competition.

Aquila will award a prize of $100,000 per year ($50,000 per season) for the next three years to the forecasting firm or forecaster who most accurately predicts cooling and heating degree days during the summer and winter seasons respectively. Heating and cooling degree days are forecast parameters used by the energy industry to project consumption. For the forecast competition, participants will submit probabilistic temperature forecasts, in terms of degree days, for 13 cities: Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, New York City, Dallas, Philadelphia, Portland, Tucson, Des Moines, Las Vegas, Memphis, Minneapolis, and Sacramento.

The goal of the contest is threefold: 1) document current state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting capabilities, 2) encourage efforts on improving long-term forecasting skills and tools, and 3) familiarize the atmospheric science community with the weather risk management field.

“Today there is no objective way for businesses to measure the relative accuracy of the different forecast products available,” says Ravi Nathan, portfolio manager for Aquila’s weather desk. “Through this contest we are addressing this issue. In addition to the benefits to business, the benefit to society that results from better forecasts of weather variables is immense.”

“The Aquila forecasting competition will help businesses that are sensitive to seasonal climate variations appreciate the tremendous value of these forecasts in making key economic decisions,” said Ronald D. McPherson, AMS Executive Director. “Not only will they learn about the relative usefulness of the competition entries, they will learn more about how to use these forecasts to maximize their business potential.”

The competition for the Aquila Prize for Long-Term Forecasting will begin in the winter season of 2000/01. The forecast is open to all private-sector corporations, university groups and university or federally affiliated labs. Rules for the contest were developed in collaboration with the American Meteorological Society and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

A team including Aquila’s Weather Risk Management group and the American Meteorological Society (AMS) will verify the forecasts and select the winners. Results of the contest will be summarized for an article to appear in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Complete contest rules and results are posted on http://www.guaranteedweather.com/. Aquila is a provider of risk management services and one of the largest wholesalers of electricity and natural gas in North America.

Weather Information for Surface Transportation Forum Scheduled for Early December

The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) and the U.S. Department of Transportation-Federal Highway Administration (USDOT-FHWA) are cosponsoring a second Weather Information for Surface Transportation Forum (WIST) entitled “Preparing For The Future: Improved Weather Information For Decision-Makers.” The event is scheduled for 4–6 December 2000, at the Double Tree Hotel, 1750 Rockville Pike, Rockville, Maryland.

A great deal of progress has been made during the last 2 years in developing a national surface transportation decision support capability. In December 1998, the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology initiated a major effort to examine the weather information needs of the surface transportation community. In June 1999, the Federal Coordinator formed an interagency Joint Action Group for Weather Information for Surface Transportation. In December 1999, OFCM and US DOT-FHWA cosponsored the first Symposium, focusing on the wide range of needs and requirements associated with the Nation’s surface transportation activities. The attendees overwhelmingly supported a proposal to establish a nationwide baseline on weather needs and requirements for surface transportation.

On behalf of the Federal meteorological community, OFCM spearheaded two data collection efforts to establish the weather needs and requirements baseline. The first effort was in the form of a questionnaire. A follow-on survey sought additional details on time and distance scales, weather elements and thresholds, and the relationship of the elements to operational decisions and actions.

This second WIST forum will focus on four major areas: a review of weather information needs and requirements as gathered from the questionnaires and surveys; an update on government and commercial capabilities and services; new and/or enhanced weather support initiatives; and decision support tools and technology. The forum provides the mechanism for identifying significant aspects of the weather community's effort to provide high quality weather products and services focused on surface transportation. The overall objectives of the forum are to: update progress and activities made over the 12 months since the first WIST symposium; identify initiatives and programs that are currently underway or being planned; illuminate gaps where additional focus is required; and identify next steps and actions toward improving weather information for decision makers.

Contact Mr. Blaine Tsugawa (blaine.tsugawa@noaa.gov) or Lt. Col. Mark Welshinger (mark.welshinger@noaa.gov) at 301-427-2002 for details. Additional information is also available online at http://www.dc.net/stc/WIST_Symposium/main.htm.

CLIMATE

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report Confirms Man-Made Pollution Contributed to Global Warming

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, released in late October, concludes that man-made pollution has “contributed substantially” to global warming and that the Earth is likely to get hotter than previously predicted, according to an Associated Press report.

The panel’s latest assessment said “there is stronger evidence” yet on the human influence on climate and that is likely that man-made greenhouse gases already “have contributed substantially to the observed warming over the last 50 years.”

The report further outlines that if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced the average surface temperature may increase between 2.7° and nearly 11° F by the end of the twenty-first century.

According to the Associated Press, the report summary is currently being distributed to government officials around the world, and may get final United Nations approval early next year.

Extreme Weather Events on the Rise as Greenhouse Gases Drive Climate

Expect hotter days, warmer nights, heavier rain and snowfall events, and more floods over the next century, says a new study published 22 September in the journal Science. The article reviews observations, impacts, and results from some 20 global climate models currently in use worldwide. It sizes up extreme events that have intensified during the past century and are expected to escalate over the next as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases shake up the earth's climate. The paper's lead authors are David Easterling of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center and Gerald Meehl, a climate expert at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

"A climate model is like a huge wok with a lot of stir-fry ingredients," says Meehl. "We throw in solar variability, ozone changes, greenhouse gases, and many other items in the form of equations. If the model's past climate matches fairly well what's already happened in the real world, we get some confidence in the recipe." The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation funded Meehl’s research.

The earth's average temperature has risen about 0.6° C (1.1° F) since the start of the twentieth century. The trend is most obvious in higher daily minimum temperatures. During the same period precipitation has increased over land in the mid- to high latitudes and decreased in the Tropics. These two temperature and precipitation trends together can lead to changes in extreme weather, say the scientists.

Some changes have already been observed over the last century and are expected to escalate. These include an increase in very hot days in some areas, higher minimum temperatures with fewer frost days, and heavier short-term rainfall (lasting one or several days), especially in the midlatitudes. In the United States, incidents of heavy rainfall over several days increased most noticeably in the southern Mississippi River valley, Southwest, Midwest, and Great Lakes.

Other changes are expected to appear later in this century as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate, trapping more heat in the atmosphere. Among them is a worldwide “drying out” of midcontinental areas during summer, with an increased chance of drought. Enhanced evaporation and higher temperatures would eventually outweigh precipitation increases in those inland areas. In North America, the central and southeast regions will get the hottest and driest, with the West Coast probably less affected because of its heavier rainfall and more moist soil.

There is no consensus yet on future trends for El Niño, hurricanes, and midlatitude storms. Scientists have recently embedded finescale regional models into global climate models to predict trends in hurricane number, intensity, and track shifts. Early results show a tendency for a future increase in hurricane intensity. Scientists expect this technique to yield better estimates in the future as model resolution improves.

Some models show slightly warmer El Niños in the future, but a more consistent result is a trend toward a generally warmer ocean surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, says Meehl. Future El Niños would then be superimposed on a warmer surface, bringing even heavier rainfall to the central and eastern Pacific and lighter rainfall over Southeast Asia than occurred during the 1997 El Niño. But results vary from model to model and the jury is still out on the future of El Niño.

Growth in both population and wealth, along with demographic shifts to storm-prone areas, has made the United States more vulnerable to weather assaults. Total federal relief payments for weather-caused disasters from 1990 through 1997 hit $12 billion. Costs are expected to soar if extreme weather intensifies over the next century.

Past Observations Are Prologue to Future Climate Changes, Scientists Say

Recorded observations of how the Earth’s climate has changed over the last 50 years can substantially help scientists predict future climate change, according to an international team of scientists.

In a study published in the 5 October issue of Nature, the scientists reported they used a novel statistical technique to refine estimates of climate change produced by leading computer models around the world. Using a synthesis of computer models and observed data, along with a common assumption about future emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants, the team expects that global mean temperature in the decade 2036–46 will be 1.8° to 4.5° F warmer than preindustrial conditions.

The team, led by Myles Allen of Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, England, assembled climate change projections from climate modeling centers in the United States, England, and Germany. Knowledge of how well those computer models simulated climate change that was observed over the last 50 years was used to refine forecasts of future climate change.

“For the first time, we are using observations of climate change as it’s happening to pin down what is likely to happen next,” said Allen.

“The technique attempts to statistically compensate for inherent limitations in climate models,” according to Thomas Delworth of NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. “This technique does not, however, address uncertainties related to future emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants.”

The scientists noted the study is subject to uncertainties in the computer models used for such projections and the uncertainties in future emissions of greenhouse gases.

While the goal of the study was to assess the uncertainty in the projection of future climate change, the authors note that the study assumes that the general character of climate change over the next 50 years will be closely related to changes observed over the last 50 years.

In addition, future emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants will differ from the assumptions used in this study will alter the projections of climate change. “There is clearly the potential for substantial surprises in future climate change,” according to Delworth.

Coauthors of the paper, “Uncertainty in Forecasts of Anthropogenic Climate Change,” are Allen; Peter Scott and John Mitchell, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research; Reiner Schur, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie; and Delworth.

Origin of Life on Earth May Have Begun with Tiny Atmospheric Droplets

An international team of researchers has proposed a new theory that aerosol particles in the ancient atmosphere may have played a role in generating the chemical building blocks for life on Earth. Indeed, they say, the aerosols may have had many characteristics of a primitive form of “cell.” Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado; Oxford University, United Kingdom; and the University of Colorado at Boulder will publish the study in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Researchers Adrian Tuck of NOAA, Christopher Dobson of Oxford, and Barney Ellison and Veronica Vaida of the University of Colorado suggest that aerosol particles, which are produced by waves at the ocean surface, could have picked up an organic outer coating as the bubbles burst in the air. Aloft in the atmosphere for days, months or even longer, the particles may have been like minuscule "chemical reaction chambers," exposing their interior contents to a wide range of temperatures, humidities, and sunlight exposures. Through evaporation, simple organic materials inside the aerosols could have become more concentrated

According to the scientists, this combination of factors could have promoted formation of the more complex organic molecules that are fundamental to life, such as proteins and nucleic acids. The lack of oxygen and ozone in the early atmosphere would have aided the process.

The new theory helps to explain many aspects of the simplest organisms of ancient Earth, the study notes. The authors show that aerosol particles have many characteristics that are similar to bacteria and other single-celled organisms. For example, they are similar in size, they possess a watery solution in their interior, and their salinity values differ from those of the ocean.

Further, the new theory shows how some of the more unusual aspects of cells may have developed. For example, the presence of a double outer membrane in cells has been difficult to explain. According to the scientists, the new study shows how the airborne particles would have formed two outer layers of organic material, one layer when they first left the ocean surface and a second layer when they returned from the atmosphere back to the ocean.

According to Tuck, the study was sparked by recent NOAA observations that individual atmospheric particles are not just seawater or sulphuric acid, but instead contain a large amount of organic material. In theorizing how the organic material could have gotten into the atmosphere, the researchers conceived of the oceanic mechanism and the possible connection to precursors of living systems on earth.

Many previous theories of the origin of single-celled life forms have suggested that the prebiotic chemistry occurred in terrestrial waters, such as tidal pools, but questions had remained about how sufficient energy and concentrations of chemicals could have been achieved. It was also not readily apparent how single-celled organisms could have formed, or why they had the size they did. The authors of the study state their new atmospheric aerosol theory helps to answer many key questions, but that experiments in large reaction chambers could provide useful tests of their ideas.

Australians Propose to Reduce Greenhouse Gases by Burying Them

Australian scientists are working on a plan to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by injecting excess quantities of carbon dioxide deep into the ground.

Quoting Peter Cook of the Australian Petroleum Cooperative Research Center (APCRC), the October DC-AMS Newsletter (AMS Washington, D.C., Chapter Newsletter) noted that “it is becoming more and more accepted that geological disposal of atmospheric carbon dioxide could be one of the most environmental friendly ways to halt the rapid rise of carbon dioxide emissions without adversely impacting economic development.”

Scientists speculate that it may be possible to securely store carbon dioxide underground for thousands of years, according to the article. The plan, it reported, is based on a project called Glad Rock I, and is focused on the rapidly industrializing Gladstone–Rockhampton region of the east coast of Queensland in Australia.

Geological disposal would be achieved by injecting the carbon dioxide, in semiliquid form, deep underground into places like coal seams, depleted oil and gas fields, large voids and cavities and unusable underground aquifers. While most approaches to industrial pollution control have focused on reducing emissions from individual factories, the proposed plan would try to tackle pollution concerns on a regional basis, the article noted.

A promising method of geological disposal of carbon dioxide gas would involve the use of emissions from industry to extract methane from coal beds. In this process, the carbon dioxide would be absorbed into the coal, displacing methane that could be recovered and used in energy production. The injected carbon dioxide would remain underground, locked in the coal.

The carbon dioxide also could be locked away through absorption into deep, thick, unusable coal seams. Possibly the most favorable option, however, the article noted, is the disposal of carbon dioxide in deep saline aquifers that are too deep or too saline to be used as a fresh water source.

Australia’s target from the United Nations convention in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997 allows an 8% growth in emissions above the 1990 levels by 2008. Australia already was 16% above that target in 1997.

Department of Energy Adds New Data on Carbon Fluxes to “Trends Online” Web Site

The Department of Energy’s Carbon Dioxide Analysis Center (CDIAC) has added a new section to “Trends Online” for data on fluxes of carbon to the atmosphere from land-use change. The inaugural dataset, “Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes,” was contributed by Richard Houghton and Joseph Hackler of the Woods Hole Research Center and prepared for online distribution by Robert Cushman. The new section can be found at http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/landuse/landuse.htm.

WEATHER AND WATER

U.S. Flood Damage Losses Rise to $5 Billion in the 1990s

Societal changes, much more than increased precipitation, were the cause of a steep rise in flood-damage costs in the United States over much of the past century, according to a study published in the 15 October issue of the AMS The Journal of Climate. U.S. annual losses, adjusted for inflation, rose from $1 billion in the 1940s to $5 billion in the 1990s.

“Climate plays an important but by no means determining role in the growth of damaging floods in the United States in recent decades,” noted authors Roger Pielke Jr. and May Downton, both of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado.

Pielke and Downton examined 10 different measures of precipitation. They found a strong relationship between flood damage and the number of 2-day rainfall events and wet days. They also found a somewhat weaker relationship between flood damage and 2-inch rainfall events in most regions. These relationships, however, could not explain the dramatic growth in flood losses, according to the authors.

Pielke and Downton and their colleagues have looked at the role of increasing precipitation, population and national wealth in recent articles. They found that population growth alone accounts for 43% of the rise in flood damages from 1932 to 1997, with a much smaller effect from increased precipitation. “Most of the other 57% increase is due to burgeoning national wealth,” Pielke reported. Downton’s work suggests that more detailed disaster reporting also contributes to the trend.

Climate scientists have observed a rise in precipitation in some areas of the United States and elsewhere over the past century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has written that a warmer climate could lead to more heavy-rain events. The Pielke–Downton paper found that flooding increases with precipitation, depending greatly on the time and location of the rain or snowfall. However, “even without an increase in precipitation,” they wrote, “total flood damage will continue to rise with the nation’s growing population and wealth unless actions are taken to reduce vulnerability.”

Pielke, a political scientist, often has noted that his work “is consistent with the conclusions of the IPCC,” whose consensus view is that the earth’s climate is changing at least partly because of human activity. “But,” he argues, “debate over the science of global warming need not stand in the way of effective actions to better address climate impacts.”

Globally, between 1970 and 1995, floods killed more than 318 000 people and left more than 81 million homeless. During 1991–95 flood-related damage totaled more than $200 billion worldwide, representing close to 40% of all economic damage attributed to natural disasters in that period.

Florida State Researchers Develop Technique to Improve Weather and Hurricane Prediction

A new, experimental forecasting method called the superensemble, developed by a Florida State University (FSU) meteorologist, is showing great potential to accurately predict the path of hurricanes, and other weather phenomena, such as droughts or floods.

FSU Professor T.N. Krishnamurti, an internationally recognized tropical meteorologist and a pioneer in numerical weather predicting, developed the idea for the superensemble in January 1999. By the summer of 1999 he and his research team had various agencies and groups, from NASA to the National Weather Services, eager to learn more.

Krishnamurti and his team of researchers at the FSU Real Time Hurricane Forecast Center use up to 11 tropical forecasts from around the world, including three of their own, and supply the data to a supercomputer. The computer weeds out errors in each forecast and produces a more accurate 1–6-day hurricane track and intensity forecast.

“We have seen important and somewhat similar applications in the areas of global weather and seasonal climate prediction,” said Eric Williford, an FSU research scientist and Ph.D. candidate in meteorology. “We believe that a substantial improvement to these areas can be made using the super ensemble technique,” Williford added.

The researchers have worked on experimental real-time Atlantic hurricane prediction, including hurricanes Dennis, Floyd, and Irene. The superensemble method was able to predict the storms' paths very accurately. This was done using FSU's forecast models, models from around the world, and previous Atlantic storm data. The more information researchers provide to the computer about previous storms, the more accurate the prediction seems to be.

Krishnamurti makes superensemble-based hurricane forecasts available twice daily to the National Hurricane Center during Atlantic tropical events. Several of the team's superensemble-related research papers have already been accepted for publication on various numerical weather prediction topics.

Krishnamurti is one of the few scientists in the United States to win the International Meteorological Organization Prize, the highest award from the World Meteorological Organization, an agency under the United Nations. He also has won the Rossby Award, the American Meteorological Society's top prize.

National Weather Service Predicts Winter Weather Will Probably Return to Normal

After a string of record warm winters, National Weather Service forecasters are predicting that normal winter weather probably will return this year.

NOAA Administrator D. James Baker and NWS Director John Kelly Jr. provided that winter outlook, which will be updated 16 November, at the press conference in Washington, D.C., on 12 October.

“We’ve probably forgotten over the last three years what a normal winter is like,” said Baker. “With La Nina and El Nino out of the way, normal winter weather has a chance to return to the United States this year.”

“As in most normal years, from New England to the Carolinas, cold weather will be part of your routine this winter,” Kelly explained. “In Florida, the enhanced likelihood of warmer-than-normal temperatures could be punctuated by cold-air outbreaks or ‘Florida Freezes.’ ”

The National Weather Service regional official winter outlooks are the following:

• In the northeast, a polar jet stream and tropical jet stream will duel for supremacy, and the polar stream will win, bringing a greater chance of snow along the spine of the Appalachians from New England to the Carolinas and points east, including Washington, D.C.; Boston and Philadelphia, and the District of Columbia could see average temperatures of 4° F colder than the last 3 winters.

• Look for normal conditions in the Plains states (North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa) and Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri. Cold-air outbreaks will potentially lead to more days of below zero and heavier lake-effect snow in the western portions of Pennsylvania and New York, northern Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and northeastern Minnesota. Minneapolis is expected to have average temperatures 6° F below the last 3 winters, while Chicago could see average temperatures 5° F lower.

• In the Southeast, temperatures will likely be warmer than normal, but slightly cooler than the last 3 years, with all Gulf Coast states (except Florida) favored to receive more precipitation than usual.

• Areas in the Far West and Southwest, for example, California and Nevada, will experience warmer-than-normal temperatures.

• The Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington) will experience a few more heavy rain events but near-normal precipitation for the winter season as a whole, and Seattle could see average temperatures 1° F below the last 3 winters.

• Alaska can expect near-normal temperatures and precipitation this winter.

Scientists Speculate that a Giant Wave Could Engulf the Eastern United States

A collapsing volcano in the Atlantic Ocean could unleash a giant wave of water that would swamp the Caribbean and much of the eastern seaboard of the United States, according to Dr. Simon Day, of the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre at University College of London.

Simon, according to an article in the October issue of the DC-AMS Newsletter (AMS Washington, D.C., Chapter Newsletter), believes one flank of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canaries archipelago is unstable and could plunge into the sea. Swiss researchers who have modeled the landslide say half a trillion tons of rock falling into the water all at once would create a wave 2130 feet high that would spread out and travel across the Atlantic at a very high speed.

The wall of water would weaken as it crossed the ocean, but still would be 130–160 feet high by the time it hit land. The surge would create havoc along the eastern coast of North America as far inland as 12 miles, the article noted.

Day told the British Broadcasting Company’s Horizon program, “This event would be so huge that it would affect not only the people on the island but people way over on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean—people who’ve never heard of La Palma.”

Scientists have been aware of the destructive power of tsunamis for many centuries. As recently as 1998, more than 2000 people were killed by a large wave hitting the coast of Papua, New Guinea. The largest wave in recorded history, witnessed in Alaska in 1958, was caused by the collapse of a towering cliff at Letuya Bay. The resulting wave was higher than any skyscraper on earth and gouged out soil and trees to a height of 1640 feet above sea level.

Day has identified dozens of volcanic vents in the Cumbre Vieja volcano that have been formed by successive eruptions over the past 100 000 years. He thinks water trapped between dykes of impermeable rock could create pressures that eventually will lead to the western flank of the mountain falling away during some future eruption.

Herman Fritz, of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, which has equipment to model waves created by landslides said, “If the Cumbre Vieja were to collapse as one single block, it would lead to a giant mega-tsunami with an initial wave height of 2130 feet. It would have a wavelength of 18 to 25 miles traveling westward across the Atlantic at speeds up to 450 mph toward America.”

FEMA Launches New Public Service Announcement

The Federal Emergency Management Association has produced a new radio public service announcement entitled “Project Impact: Building Disaster Resistant Communities.” Project Impact is a nationwide prevention initiative that helps homeowners, businesses and communities take preventative steps that will reduce the impact of natural disasters.

The radio PSA follows the June 2000 launch of the agency's video PSA campaign and continues to spread the campaign's theme—“You can't prevent the weather, but you can prevent the damage.”

To request copies of either PSA, please contact Kristin Hackler at 202-835-9402 or kristin.hackler@ketchum.com. Additional information and order forms are also available on the FEMA Web site at http://www.fema.gov/impact.

National Ice Center Reports New Iceberg in the Ross Sea

A new iceberg, 345 square miles in area, has splintered away from Antarctic’s Ross Ice Shelf in the Ross Sea, according to the National Ice Center in Suitland, Maryland.

The center reported that Iceberg B-20 was detected on 27 September using the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Optical Linescan Sensor infrared imagery. The iceberg is known to have broken away from the ice shelf between 20 and 26 September. The exact date is unknown due to extensive cloud cover that persisted over the southern Ross Sea, officials said.

B-20 is located in the vicinity of 77°, 00' S, 170°, 42' E and has moved northwest since breaking off from the ice shelf. It measures 30 × 11.5 statute miles.

The National Ice Center is a tri-agency operational activity with representation from the U.S. Navy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Coast Guard.

SATELLITES AND SPACE

NOAA Satellites Provide Early Warning of Drought to Countries around the World

NOAA’s environmental satellites are being hailed by countries around the world for providing early warning of drought. The satellite information allows drought warnings to be provided 4 to 6 weeks earlier than ground-based data, according to NOAA officials.

Returning from a recent meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Felix Kogan, of NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), reported that NOAA’s satellite-based system is the only global system available that can provide such early warning. Kogan was one of 25 world experts from 12 countries who assessed the current status of drought early warning systems at the WMO meeting in Lisbon.

“Many countries of the world depend on data from NOAA’s environmental satellites to provide estimates of drought onset, dynamics, intensity and geographic areas affected,” Kogan explained. “NOAA provides images outlining vegetation stress and makes estimates of the percent of a country affected by droughts of different severity. In addition, we make comparative analyses of the time the drought started and the intensity and speed at which it develops.”

After a relatively quiet year in 1999, the year 2000 has seen a series of extreme droughts. The country of Georgia, a former republic of the U.S.S.R. and now a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, which produces excellent varieties of grapes for wine making and produces grains and vegetables, was hit by an unusually intensive drought. “Considering the severity of the disaster and a lack of infrastructure, the government of Georgia asked NOAA to estimate the drought consequences,” Kogan said.

In addition to Georgia, Northern America, sub-Sahara Africa, and southeastern and central Asia were among the regions of the world most seriously affected. Severe vegetation stress has been persisting since spring south of the Caspian Sea, western India, most of Mongolia, and adjacent areas of China.

In the Horn of Africa, nearly 15 million people were affected from unusual drought that resulted in crop failures earlier this year in Ethiopia. Nearly 60% of Kenya was affected by extreme drought, the largest area since 1991. Afghanistan and Pakistan had severe vegetation stress due to lack of precipitation and excessive heat since mid-February. In the United States, in addition to crop and pasture failures in the southeastern and central states, drought caused large areas of intensive fires in the northwest.

Poland and Morocco both requested NOAA’s help in providing digital data on vegetation health in order to estimate possible crop losses. During Kogan’s visit to China in May 2000, officials in the province of Jilin (eastern China) requested NOAA’s assistance in estimating the areas under drought, and the intensity and duration, which were provided several times during the growing season. Digital data also were sent to Kazakhstan, and drought estimates were provided for Tajikistan.

The NOAA/NESDIS drought product is based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), developed by NASA in the late 1970s. Then, in the late 1980s, NOAA/NESDIS scientists improved drought detection and monitoring techniques, adding thermal information from the radiances measured by an instrument known as the AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) on NOAA’s polar-orbiting satellites.

In the past 6 years, the new method of early drought detection and watch has been used globally. In Poland, this method has been used since 1997 for assessment of drought impacts on crop condition and estimating crop production, Kogan added. During an intensive 1998 drought in Mexico, the government used this data extensively for making important decisions on implementing an alternative crop program.

NOAA, National Space Club Seek Nominations for David Johnson Award

NOAA and the National Space Club are seeking applications for the prestigious NOAA David Johnson Award. The award is presented to professionals who have developed an innovative use of earth observations satellite data that can be used to assess or predict atmospheric, oceanic, or terrestrial conditions. The deadline for nominations is 1 December.

The award is given by the National Space Club in honor of the first administrator of what was to become NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). Johnson, now retired, was a pioneer in operational meteorological satellites. He will be inducted as an Honorary Member of the AMS in January 2001.

For the award, the use of satellite data should have a practical, ongoing purpose that could be used to assess or predict environmental conditions, on a regular, operational basis. Examples include the use of earth observation data for fire monitoring, weather forecasting, climate monitoring or prediction, global change detection, volcanic ash tracking, vegetation/drought monitoring, oil spill tracking, rainfall measurements or forecasts, hurricane landfall predictions, and fisheries management. The data used may be from any earth observation satellite including NOAA or other U.S. government or commercial or foreign satellites.

The nominee must be a U.S. citizen, national or permanent resident and not more than 40 years of age by 31 December 2000. Individuals or groups may be nominated. For group nominations, all members of the group should have been actively involved in the design or implementation of the demonstrated use, and each must be a U.S. citizen, national or permanent resident. The leader of the group must be clearly identified.

The National Space Club must receive nominations with the complete application by 1 December 2000. Applications should be sent to National Space Club, c/o Rebecca Griffin, Litton PRC, 1500 PRC Drive, McLean, VA 22102. Applications may also be e-mailed to griffin_rebecca@prc.com, or faxed at (703) 556-1381 (subject: NOAA David Johnson Award package).

Scientists Say Antarctic Ozone Hole Earlier, but Not Deeper, This Year

NOAA scientists report that ozone measurements of this year’s ozone hole over the South Pole show that ozone depletion occurred earlier, but did not reach the very lowest values of some recent years.

Using instrumented balloons to take vertical profiles of the ozone at South Pole, researchers from NOAA’s Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) in Boulder, Colorado, reported that the September decline in ozone occurred about six days earlier than in any previous year and, as observed in other recent years, ozone was totally destroyed between 9 and 13 miles altitude.

The total column ozone reached the minimum reading of 98 Dobson units on 29 September, compared to 90 Dobson units in 1999, researchers reported. The record low of 88 Dobson units was observed in 1993. Prior to the springtime period in Antarctica, the normal Dobson unit reading is around 275, they noted.

Another measure of the severity of the ozone hole is its total area. Estimates of the area are made by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center based on information collected by instruments on the agency’s polar-orbiting satellites. Satellite data show the ozone hole area was more than 27 million square kilometers for 3 days in early September, peaking at 28.5 square kilometers.

“This is the largest geographical size on record and comparable to the area of North America,” said Lawrence Flynn, a physical scientist at NOAA’s NESDIS.

Other reports noted that the ozone hole extended all the way to Chile, marking the first time that the break in the earth’s protective atmospheric layer opened over a population area. The hole extended over Punta Arenas, a southern Chile city of about 120 000 people on 9 and 10 September, exposing residents to very high levels of ultraviolet radiation.

Flynn predicts that smaller areas of low ozone could affect Argentina and even the tip of South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. “The hole won’t grow to that size,” he explained, “but as it breaks apart, fingers of low ozone, or filaments as we call them, will go over major land mass areas. Those filaments will be over the land mass for a few weeks.”

“Even though the geographical size of the ozone hole was the largest on record, and the ozone depleted earlier than ever, the severity of the ozone depletion within the hole reached about the same levels as the past few years,” explained David Hoffmann, director of CMDL. “Year-to-year fluctuations in the geographical size...and the timing of the ozone reduction are believed to be related to meteorological factors such as temperature and winds, rather than further increases in ozone-destroying chemicals in the atmosphere.”

Each austral spring when the sun rises over Antarctica, chemical reactions involving chlorine and bromine from human-made chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and bromine-containing compounds, occur in the stratosphere, destroying ozone and causing the “ozone hole.” The global ozone layer also has deteriorated since 1980, but not to the extent that is observed each spring in Antarctica.

An international assessment of the status of the global ozone layer, produced by hundreds of scientists for the WMO and the United Nations Environmental Program in 1998, indicated that the amount of chlorine in the stratosphere from CFCs should soon be reaching a maximum due to regulations on emissions as dictated by the Montreal Protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer and subsequent amendments.

The amount of chlorine in the atmosphere at the earth’s surface was measured by CMDL to have begun declining already in 1994.

Internet Space Science Education Resource Directory Now Available

NASA’s Office of Space Science has released a Space Science Education Resource Directory, an Internet educational resource. The Web-based directory provides easy access to high-quality, online space science educational resources for teachers and students from kindergarten through high school.

The first release of the directory contains more than 100 electronic resources, including lesson plans, educator guides, student activities, Web sites, and space science imagery, such as auroras, comets, the birthplace of stars, and colliding galaxies.

Science educators can locate science lessons and activities for their classrooms by searching by keyword or browsing by subject, grade level, and topics that align with National Science Foundation Standards.

The directory will be updated continually, and future plans include providing access to printed materials, CD-ROMs, videos, and posters. To review the directory’s collection, visit the Web site at http://teachspacescience.stsci.edu.

Volume Two of EOS Data Products Handbook Now Available

Volume Two of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data Products Handbook has been completed and is now available for distribution, according to Michael King, EOS Senior Project Scientist.

The handbook, prepared by Claire Parkinson and Renny Greenstone, provides a brief description of the science data products that will be available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information Service (EOSDIS).

The objective of the handbook is to promote a broader understanding of how the EOS data products will contribute to science research in the understanding, analysis, and monitoring of global climate change, according to King.

The volume describes data products that currently are being produced or soon will be produced from instruments on board ACRIMSAT, Aqua, Landsat 7, Jason-1, Meteor 3M, QuikScat, and Quik TOMS. The volume is a follow-on to Volume 1, published in 1997 for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Terra (formerly EOS AM-1), and other data.

The handbook will be distributed to EOS principal investigators, co-investigators, instrument team members, and the Distributive Active Archive Centers. Printed copies are available from the Project Science Office at Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, or electronically at http://www.eos.nasa.gov.

PEOPLE IN THE NEWS

National Council of Industrial Meteorologists Elects Jill Hasling President

The National Council of Industrial Meteorologist (NCIM) will have their first woman president for the June 2001–02 term. Jill F. Hasling, Certified Consulting Meteorologist (CCM) of the Weather Research Center, will replace Dr. Wayne R. Sand, CCM, as the president of NCIM in June 2001.

The NCIM, founded in 1968, is the nation's oldest, continuously active professional association for private-sector consulting and industrial meteorologists. All NCIM members are CCMs with the American Meteorological Society. There are 421 active CCMs and 14 of these are women. Very few women CCMs work in the private sector. Hasling became NCIM's first woman member in 1992. Dr. Elizabeth Carter, CCM, recently joined NCIM, becoming the organization’s second woman member.

Hasling is Director of Weather Research Center and has been involved in the private sector since 1974 working on projects that range from marine weather forecasting to hindcasting the weather for law cases. Hasling was elected an AMS Fellow at the 2000 Annual Meeting.

National Weather Service Names Dean Gulezian as Eastern Region Director

Dean P. Gulezian, a 26-year National Weather Service veteran, has been named director of the NWS Eastern Region, a federal office headquartered on Long Island with responsibility for 30 weather service offices in 16 states.

A native of Lynnfield, Massachusetts, Gulezian takes over as director after 10 years as meteorologist-in-charge (MIC) of the NWS Forecast Office in Detroit, Michigan. He began his weather career in the Eastern Region as a student volunteer at the Hartford Weather Service Office and worked his way up from meteorological intern to lead forecaster at the weather service’s Portland, Maine, facility. He has also held the positions of MIC at the Columbia, Missouri, Weather Service Office, Eastern Region aviation meteorologist, and deputy MIC at the Philadelphia Weather Forecast Office.

Gulezian holds a bachelor of science degree in meteorology from the Lowell Technological Institute (now the University of Massachusetts—Lowell) and a masters degree in meteorology from Penn State.

Electronic Theater’s Fritz Hasler Demonstrates Another Expertise

Dr. Fritz Hasler, the Goddard Space Flight Center scientist who annually produces the Electronic Theater productions at the AMS annual meetings, recently won the men’s five-trick competition at the National Water Ski championships.

Hasler, a research meteorologist, has been skiing competitively for more than 30 years. At age 60, he was one of the oldest skiers in the men’s five-trick division that includes ages 53–59, and he beat the nation’s 20 top rated men’s five-trick skiers. Hasler has won nine national medals over the years, including four silvers and numerous Eastern Regionals titles, and is the Eastern Regional record holder.

In addition, Hasler serves as an American Water Ski Association senior judge for the World Team Trials and Bud Lite Pro Tour.

Sharon Foster Named Executive Director of U.S. Centennial of Flight Commission

Sharon Foster, formerly director of management operations at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, has been named executive director of the U.S. Centennial of Flight Commission, an organization created by Congress to serve as a national and international source of information about activities to commemorate the centennial of the Wright Brothers historic first flight on 17 December 1903.

The events are expected to attract participation of meteorologists throughout the world who will be called upon to make forecasts for the many air shows and other activities planned.

Foster succeeds Dr. Sylvia Kraemer, who served as interim executive director from February through September 2000. Kraemer has accepted a teaching position at George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia.

Foster has a long and distinguished career in government service, having joined NASA in 1973 and served in the agency in various positions. She has received numerous awards from NASA, including the Exceptional Service Medal and the Outstanding Leadership Medal, and has twice been honored with Presidential Rank Awards for her accomplishments in the Senior Executive Service.

The commission has opened a Web site featuring a calendar of events, which lists activities taking place leading up to and including the anniversary celebration in December 2003. The Web site can be checked at http://www.centennialofflight.gov.

Teresa Bals-Elsholz, New York Graduate Student, Wins Desert Research Institute’s Award for Women in Atmospheric Sciences

Teresa M. Bals-Elsholz, a Ph.D. student in earth and atmospheric sciences at the University at Albany, State University of New York, as won the Desert Research Institute’s 2000 Peter B. Wagner Memorial Award for Women in Atmospheric Sciences.

The $1,000 annual award was established in 1998 by former Nevada Lt. Gov. Sue Wagner in memory of her husband, Peter, a DRI scientist who died in the 1980 crash of a DRI research aircraft. The purpose of the national award is to encourage women graduate students in the atmospheric sciences. The recipient is determined competitively based on submission of scientific papers.

“The Peter B. Wagner award provided a unique opportunity to compete with other women in atmospheric science and it gave me an enormous amount of pride to receive this award,” said Bals-Elsholz. “This paper competition was a welcome boost of encouragement and a professional nod of affirmation to continue in my pursuit of a Ph.D. in atmospheric science.”

Ms. Bals-Elsholz’s paper was an analysis of conditions affecting the level of critical winter rainfall during cold weather surges into Central America from the continental United States. Her study of climate and weather records indicated that greater precipitation occurred when moist air from the Pacific was able to penetrate a “seam” through tropical high pressure into the western Caribbean–eastern Mexico region and mix with the cold-air surges from the north.

Further information on the award is available at http://www.dri.edu/Admin/wagner.html; or contact Dr. Claudia Miner, executive director of DRI’s Institutional Advancement, (775) 674-7551 or cminer@dri.edu.