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The American Meteorological Society's 83rd Annual Meeting was a popular place to be last month. Nearly 3,500 people involved in the environmental sciences were at the weeklong conference in Long Beach, California. The total includes attendees, exhibitors, short course participants, and international representatives.
The Second Annual WeatherFest and the Third Presidential Policy Forum were among the many meeting highlights. More than 500 people from the greater Long Beach community turned out for WeatherFest, the only public event at the annual meeting. The exhibit hall was overrun with families and Boy and Girl Scout troops eager to learn about the atmosphere, watch a balloon launch, and meet their favorite celebrity television meteorologist.
"It was great to see such a turnout of children and families at WeatherFest," said outgoing AMS President Rick Rosen. "They are our future and what a better way to reach them than when we are already in town."
The Presidential Policy Forum drew an equally impressive crowd—approximately 1,500 participated in a discussion about the climate change initiative. The administration's science advisor Dr. John Marburger, along with James Mahoney, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and David Conover, director of the climate change technology program at the Department of Energy, each gave brief presentations on their respective programs.
"We're grateful to Dr. Marburger, Dr. Mahoney, and Mr. Conover for taking time from their other responsibilities to travel across the country and meet with us. That they would do so shows they see the AMS and its members as an important constituency. In turn, the large attendance and the tone of questions and comments from the floor showed that our members are increasingly interested and involved in policy issues."
In the Exhibit Hall, more than 132 companies showcased new sensors and high-speed software among many other products and services. Many of them have already committed to participate in the AMS 84th Annual Meeting in Seattle next January.
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The American Meteorological Society and Columbia University are hosting a forum to develop policy recommendations to derive greater national benefit from climate information and seasonal climate predictions. The forum will be held at the National Academies Building in Washington, D.C. on 23–24 April 2003.
The two-day forum will consist of a series of in-depth discussions on key issues by weather and climate scientists, specialists in developing decision strategies, policy makers, and legislators. The discussions will identify present seasonal climate observational and predictive capabilities, present response strategies, and the information needs of decision makers. The focus will be on the response to El Niño–related events, most notably those of 1997/98 and the events currently underway. There will also be extensive interaction among panelists, participants, and prominent speakers at a reception and dinner.
A series of panel discussions will address the following:
Following the forum, a report will be published summarizing the discussions, findings, and recommendations. The report will be given a public release and will be distributed widely to members of Congress and their staff; key officials in the executive branch; policy makers at the regional, state, and local levels; and interested parties in the private sector.
Individuals with professional interest in weather and climate, as well as managers in sectors sensitive to climate variability, are invited. The registration fee is $200. It includes full participation in the two-day forum, a reception, and dinner with speakers on April 23.
The registration deadline is 14 March. Registration information is available on the AMS Web site at www.ametsoc.org/ams. For additional information, contact Carolyn McMahon either by phone (202-737-9006 ext. 437) or e-mail (mcmahon@dc.ametsoc.org).
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The AMS Summer Policy Colloquium will be held 1–10 June 2003. The colloquium will bring a select group to Washington, D.C., for an intense 10-day immersion in atmospheric policy. The colloquium will
Total enrollment—including competitively accepted graduate students plus paying participants—is limited to 50. Complete details on the application process are available on the AMS Web site at http://www.ametsoc.org/ams.
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Trading of weather-related futures and options contracts on Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (CME) reached record levels in January, with a significant increase over the transactions level in January 2002, according to the Weather Risk Management Association (WRMA) and CME.
The record volume of 1,247 contracts in January for CME weather futures and options compares to just 11 contracts traded in January 2002. After trading activity in weather related contracts on the CME rose over the course of the year, the January record was aided by recent frigid temperatures in the middle and eastern portions of the United States last month, according to the two organizations.
The worldwide weather risk market totals over $11.8 billion in coverage. Initially focused on the energy industry, the market for weather derivatives has grown to include participants in such diverse sectors as retailing, agriculture, construction, transportation, and managed funds.
In the first few years of weather trading, WRMA members and their customers had only two choices for this process: either insurance contracts, or over-the-counter derivative instruments. Nine months ago, when the CME enlisted Wolverine Trading LP as the lead market maker for the weather contracts, customers discovered more accessible pricing and trading opportunities on CME.
For more than 100 years futures markets have made possible the efficient transfer of ownership and price risks related to tangible commodities such as livestock, grains, and metals. Financial futures, first developed by CME in 1972, commoditized currencies and were followed by interest rates and stock indexes enabling the hedging of risks related to the fluctuation of these key economic benchmarks. Weather risk instruments, which became popular as the U.S. electric utility industry deregulated during the mid-1990s, have turned temperature, precipitation, and other weather phenomena into commodities as well.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (www.cme.com) is the largest futures exchange in the United States and the second largest exchange in the world for the trading of futures and options on futures.
Founded in 1999 by some of the leading companies in the industry, the Weather Risk Management Association (WRMA) is an international trade organization dedicated to promoting the industry both to those within it and to end users.
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The America's Cup—the world's premier yachting regatta—is underway in the waters off Auckland, New Zealand, and Sailing Weather Services is there. Sailing Weather Services chief meteorologist Chris Bedford, an AMS certified consulting meteorologist, is onsite working directly with participants in assessing the weather conditions they will encounter in hopes of giving the teams an extra edge in their racing.
In autumn 2000, Bedford managed the acquisition and installation of a meteorological and oceanographic buoy for the America's Cup sailing area. In a unique arrangement of cooperation among the fierce competitors, 7 of the 10 teams involved pooled resources to obtain a 3-meter metocean buoy for deployment in the center of the America's Cup racing area. The buoy carries an innovative mast, which allows measurement of winds at 5 and 10 meters above the water surface. Data from the buoy is available to the teams in real time at a rate of once per minute. Ocean wave and current information is provided once every 20 minutes.
In July 2002, Bedford began providing daily weather forecasting and on-the-water consulting to teams from Sweden and New Zealand. Employing a proprietary medium-range forecasting system, Sailing Weather Services has significantly advanced the ability of yacht designers to optimize the performance of their boats for the expected weather conditions between 15 and 30 days in advance. For more immediate race requirements, neural network and fuzzy logic techniques provide guidance geared for the first 15–30 minutes of each race, when gaining an advantage over the opponent is most critical.
Sailing Weather Services is a consulting firm specializing in services to competitive sailors and extreme adventurers. For additional information, contact Chris Bedford via email at cbedford@sailwx.com.
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Satlantic, a Canadian high technology company that designs and manufactures oceanographic sensors and systems for the marine environment, will design, build, and deploy an underwater ocean monitoring system for Memorial University's Bonne Bay Ocean Observatory Program. This system uses video and acoustic technologies, as well as a suite of in situ sensors to continuously sample physical, chemical, and biological properties of the water. Information from this system will be used to study the effects of climate change on the marine ecosystem.
The Bonne Bay Ocean Observatory is the first underwater system of its kind in Canada to provide the research community with a highly integrated framework of key ocean properties. Using optical fibers for data transmission and state-of-the-art data collection and processing technology developed by Satlantic, information from this system will be displayed in real time on the World Wide Web. A multidisciplinary team of scientists will then analyze the information. Results will be shared with a wide research community, including those interested in aquaculture, management, and conservation of natural marine resources, as well as with the general public.
Satlantic has participated in a number of similar projects in Nova Scotia, the Mediterranean, and the eastern United States
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The Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET) Program has redesigned its the meteorology education and training Web site to make access to COMET products and services easier. The new interface is organized by meteorology topics and resources, includes links to Web pages and sites designed specifically for communities of interest, such as forecasters in the northern latitudes, the higher education community, and more. Access to all the materials on the Web site is free of charge. See http://www.meted.ucar.edu.
The National Weather Service funds the COMET Program, under a cooperative agreement with NOAA. COMET is a program of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR).
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The Reinsurance Association of America and the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado announce a summer internship program for graduate students in science, engineering, or policy. The application deadline for the internships is 15 March 2003.
The goal of this program is to place emerging professionals in policy or scientific graduate programs with reinsurance companies for approximately 3 months over the summer (i.e., 15 May–31 August 2003). Reinsurers insure insurance companies for catastrophe losses and therefore provide the largest share of the financing for recovery from major natural catastrophes. Much of their financial analysis is based on current scientific understanding about catastrophe risk. The program seeks to increase students' awareness of the reinsurance industry and expose the industry to highly skilled students in policy and the sciences. A longer-term vision is greater interaction between the two communities.
The minimum qualifications for an applicant are completion of one year of graduate school in a scientific or policy field of study. Submit college transcripts, a resume, two letters of recommendation, and a 500-word statement explaining your interest in this program. For further information please see the program Web site at http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/reinsurance/.
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Four and a half months late, Congress finished work on the eleven FY03 appropriations legislation it had been working on for over a year, and it has been signed into law by the president in the form of one "omnibus" spending bill. The partisan wrangling, turn over of Senate control to the Republicans, as well as special considerations of the war on terror and upcoming war with Iraq—along with the administration's inflexibility in response to calls for relatively minor increases in spending—had conspired to produce a deadlock that extended more than a third of the way into a new fiscal year.
Funds will now flow to federal agencies that had had their FY03 spending largely frozen at FY02 levels, despite inflation and Congressionally-mandated pay raises. As a result of the deadlock, new programs were put on hold, and others could not be funded at levels appropriate to proposed changes in priorities. The uncertainty caused difficulties as agencies had to be especially cautious in spending and erred on the side of caution, thus being constrained from using their resources in the most efficient and effective way possible.
Spending authority for FY03 in the atmospheric and related sciences and services is relatively solid despite increased spending due to the War on Terror, a looming war in Iraq, and even the corporate scandals requiring large increases in funding for such agencies as the Securities and Exchange Commission (which share an appropriations bill with NOAA).
While the NSF did not do quite as well as had been hoped—that is, put on a path to doubling—the omnibus spending bill as signed by the president did provide it with substantial increases. NASA also did well, and water programs at USGS are funded up to a satisfactory level as well. At one point last year, it looked as if NOAA—originally slated for an increase in the administration's proposal in the vicinity of 3% for FY03—would suffer rather severely in the bill produced by the Commerce, Justice, State Appropriations Subcommittee on the Senate side and confirmed by the full committee. However, in negotiations over the final package, some of the cuts in NOAA's funding request were restored, and its final budget numbers included an overall increase, though less than contained in the president's budget request and less than an amount that would fully account for inflation.
An upcoming special issue of the AMS online newsletter will provide an in-depth look at the final FY03 appropriations, as well as the administration's proposed budget for FY04.
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Researchers studying the 1998–2002 droughts that spread across the United States, southern Europe, and southwestern Asia believe they were linked by a common thread: ocean conditions. The findings are published in the 31 January issue of Science.
Lead author Martin Hoerling, a scientist at NOAA's Climate Diagnostics Center in Boulder, Colorado, and colleague Arun Kumar, from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, say cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific and warm sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans worked together synergistically to cause wide-spread drying in the midlatitudes. According to Hoerling, it was the "perfect ocean for drought."
During 1998–2002, the prolonged below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures caused the United States to experience drought in both the Southwest and Western states and along the Eastern seaboard. These droughts extended across southern Europe and southwestern Asia. "During the four-year period, as little as 50% of the average rainfall fell in these regions," said Hoerling. According to Hoerling, this was an abrupt change for the United States from what had been ranked as the wettest decade since at least the1890s.
Using climate simulations, the scientists assessed how the ocean conditions over the four-year period influenced climate. "We used the true monthly varying sea surface temperatures and then, using high-speed computers, ran several climate models more than 50 times and averaged their responses," Kumar said. "By running them multiple times, we could identify the common, reproducible element of the atmosphere's sensitivity to the ocean."
What the researchers found was that the tropical oceans had a substantial effect on the atmosphere. "There were unprecedented warm sea surface conditions in the western tropical Pacific, while at the same time, we had three plus consecutive years of cold La Niña conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific," Hoerling said. "Usually, the La Niña conditions would have cooled the whole ocean."
According to Hoerling, "The warmth in the western Pacific during 1998–2002 simply has no precedent in at least the past 150 years." The researchers say that the combination of the warm and cold oceans shifted the tropical rainfall patterns into the far western equatorial Pacific.
What caused the remarkable conditions that occurred in the 1998–2002 period? The researchers say that while the cold sea surface temperatures were unusual, they were not unprecedented. But the warmth of the tropical Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Ocean was unsurpassed during the twentieth century. "Climate attribution studies find that this warming (roughly 1ºC since 1950) is beyond that expected of natural variability and is partly due to the ocean's response to increased greenhouse gases," they said.
The scientists added, "What is suggested by the atmospheric modeling results of 1998–2002 is an increased risk for severe and synchronized drying of the midlatitudes in the future, if these oceanic conditions continue to occur."
For more information, see the Climate Diagnostics Center's Web site at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov, and the Climate Prediction Center's Web site at http://www.cpc.noaa.gov.
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The recent deaths of 14 Canadian skiers in two separate snow avalanches in British Columbia have increased attention on safety issues, but some U.S. scientists are turning their focus elsewhere—to studying the properties of snow stability that could lead to more accurate means of predicting avalanche events.
Montana State University professor of geography Kathy Hansen has received a $160,000 National Science Foundation (NSF) grant to do a comprehensive study of snow stability over space and time. Revealing some of the true properties and behaviors of snow could lead to better predictions of potential avalanches in the western United States, as well as in the alpine regions of the world, she contends.
Karl Birkeland, an adjunct professor at Montana State and an avalanche scientist for the U.S. Forest Service National Avalanche Center, is coprincipal investigator for the two-year study. He says that even in the East, where mountains are not as high but where concentration of recreational skiers is greater, the danger of avalanches is significant on all open snow covered slopes of 30° and steeper when multiple layers of snow affect its stability.
That has been the case this winter in the East, where many slopes have experienced numerous storms, making it heaven for skiers, but more risky on avalanche-susceptible mountainsides. Mt. Washington in New Hampshire, for example, accounted for the first two deaths of the current North American winter season when an avalanche buried two people last November.
"Snow is highly dynamic and we've done years of research on snow stability, but now we feel we have the tools to fill a fundamental gap of knowledge by studying how snow stability changes at various geographic locations over time, rather than just taking a single snapshot of an area and making generalizations," Hansen explains. "Snow changes quickly -- by the minute - and we want to understand better how to analyze characteristics of weakening that occur in snowpacks."
Much of the previous research on snow stability has looked at individual slopes at a single moment in time, but snowpacks, as researchers have discovered, are dynamic systems. Using a new snow stability test, and a sensitive instrument codeveloped by Switzerland's Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research and by the U.S. Army Cold Regions Engineering Lab, Hansen and Birkeland will sample, over limited periods, how snow stability changes over adjacent 900-m2 plots across a variety of field sites. The researchers will collect data on how spatial patterns of snow change through time, looking at patterns of weak-layer thickness, strength, and microstructural change.
Hansen's group also hopes to provide relevant insights in avalanche forecasting; protection of life and property; mitigation; and education for avalanche professionals and people who live, work, play, and travel within mountain environments.
For more information, see http://www.fsavalanche.org/NAC/techPages/index.html.
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The West Coast of the United States, already pounded by a series of powerful storms this winter, is getting some extra forecasting support from two aircraft used to research and track tropical storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. For the third year in a row, the National Weather Service is operating the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program to gain an edge on forecasting severe storm systems emerging from the Pacific Ocean.
The program, which began 18 January and ends in mid-March, uses similar tactics NOAA scientists use to track and study hurricanes. The two aircraft—NOAA's Gulfstream-IV jet and the U.S. Air Force Reserve's WC-130H Hercules—perform surveillance missions into developing storm systems in the Pacific.
The aircraft are deployed from one to four days in advance of a potential storm system in the Pacific that appears headed for either Alaska or the continental U.S. On board the aircraft, scientists take atmospheric observations in areas where the measurements are expected to have the greatest chance of improving the forecasts.
Scientists drop highly sensitive devices called dropsondes in strategic areas of the atmosphere. As they fall toward to ocean, the dropsondes measure temperature, wind speed, humidity and pressure. The information is relayed in real time to the NOAA Weather Service supercomputer, which incorporates it into the agency's numerical prediction models. "The net result is a 48-hour targeted storm forecast is as accurate as a 36-hour forecast. That is crucial for residents living in harm's way," said Dr. Zoltan Toth, a research meteorologist at the NOAA Environmental Modeling Center in Camp Springs, Maryland.
Scientists first began taking experimental targeted observations over the northeast Pacific during in the El Niño winter of 1997/98. Past results show a 60% to 80% improvement in the accuracy of "targeted" weather forecasts. With those positive results, the status of the program was raised from the research level to being fully operational in January 2001. Since then the observations and data collected are used operationally in NOAA Weather Service weather models. The winter storms program's observations allow meteorologists to forecast and release information about significant winter weather events 12 hours earlier than without such observations.
In addition to collecting severe winter weather information for better national forecasts, one of the features of the 2003 program is its support of the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX ), a global atmospheric research program. THORPEX is a long-term international research program aimed at accelerating improvements in weather forecasting.
Scientists from 11 countries are collaborating to improve atmospheric observing systems, data assimilation, predictability, and economic and societal applications of weather forecasts. The Winter Storm Reconnaissance program will support and enhance scientific research during the THORPEX Observing System Test (TOST) period from February through March.
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Hard-to-detect clouds and water vapor, hidden until now from most atmospheric sensors, could be helping to shape global climate. An instrument package developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has detected layers of moisture, indicative of high-level cirrus clouds that were missed by standard weather balloons and other instruments. The findings were presented by NCAR scientist Junhong Wang at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society.
The undetected moisture and clouds between about 5 and 9 miles high (8–14 kilometers) probably have little effect on daily weather forecasts, but their omission may be corrupting our view of long-term climate. On average, cirrus clouds tend to warm the planet, as they allow sunlight to enter the atmosphere while trapping radiation emitted from the ground.
"Even small amounts of water vapor and cirrus clouds at these heights are extremely important for climate, as they strongly affect earth's radiation budget," says Richard Anthes, president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, which operates NCAR. Anthes notes that radiosonde data are often used in computer models to predict the weather, and that the resulting weather analyses are then used for analyzing climate, including the calibration of models that simulate previous and future climates. "It is possible that decades of climate records have underestimated the amount of cirrus clouds in the global atmosphere," says Anthes.
Wang's study analyzes humidity data collected from the lowest few miles of the atmosphere by radiosondes (weather balloons). Over 1,500 radiosondes are launched each day around the world, forming the backbone of the planet's weather observing system. Wang and colleagues compared readings from the two inexpensive humidity sensors commonly used on radiosondes with data from Snow White, a high-quality sensor developed by the Swiss firm Meteolabor AG. Snow White is part of a reference-radiosonde package developed at NCAR and deployed in the International H20 Project (IHOP2002), a collaborative study led by NCAR last spring.
In the cold air from about 26,000 to 42,000 feet high, the team found that standard sensors nearly always showed relative humidities ranging from about 10% to 30%. In contrast, more than half of the Snow White deployments showed areas of moisture at these altitudes with relative humidities from 90% to 100%—a strong sign of clouds. In one of these cases, a NASA ground-based lidar (laser-based radar) taking part in IHOP2002 analyzed air near the track of a Snow White deployment. The lidar confirmed that high clouds were actually present.
How do these clouds escape detection? Many of them are "subvisible cirrus," so faint they can't be seen by the naked eye. "Both ground-based observers and space-based satellites have trouble distinguishing these clouds," according to David Carlson, head of the NCAR Atmospheric Technology Division.
Wang and colleagues hope that their reference radiosonde system, which includes Snow White, will help improve the quality of radiosondes used for day-to-day observing. It may also help scientists correct the data from years past. "If developed and deployed soon," says Wang, "a reference radiosonde could help repair and improve data records over time and space."
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The first two months of the winter saw average to below average temperatures in the East, and unusual warmth in the western United States, according to scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Near record dryness occurred in January following a much wetter-than-average December for the contiguous United States. The global average surface temperature was the third warmest on record for January.
NOAA scientists from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, North Carolina, report that the average temperature for the contiguous United States in January (based on preliminary data) was 32.9°F (0.5°C), which was 2.0°F above the 1895–2002 mean, but well below the record warm January of 1953 when the average temperature was 37.3°F (2.9°C). Conditions in the East contrasted sharply with those in the West. High pressure over the western United States and an atmospheric flow pattern that brought arctic air into the eastern United States resulted in below average temperatures in the East and record or near-record warmth in the West. Although the contrast was not as great, a similar pattern of temperatures occurred in December, with a nationally averaged temperature 2.3°F above the long-term average.
The Southwest and West had their warmest January on record while January was the second warmest on record in the Northwest. On a statewide basis, Nevada and Utah had their warmest January on record, and statewide average temperatures were second warmest in California, Oregon and Arizona. The statewide January temperature for Alaska was 6.7°F (3.7°C) above the 1971–2000 average.
In the East, snow and ice storms accompanied the cold temperatures in some areas. From 4 to 12 inches (10–30 cm) of snow fell across North Carolina on 23 January, leaving 3 to 4-foot-high (90–120 cm) snow drifts on the Outer Banks. The state was affected by a severe ice storm the previous month that left well over one million people without electricity. Heavy snows also fell in parts of the Northeast, where Syracuse, New York, had more than 100 inches (254 cm) of seasonal snowfall by the end of January. Syracuse normally receives 112 inches (285 cm) of snow each year. The average temperature for the December–January two-month period in the Northeast was 2.5°F (1.4°C) below the long-term average. These temperatures contrasted sharply with the previous winter, which was the warmest on record for the region.
December 2002 was the ninth wettest December on record for the contiguous United States, but extremely dry conditions followed as 2003 began, and January was the second driest such month since 1895. The most anomalously dry region for the two-month period stretched from Colorado to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. The warmth and lack of snowfall in the upper Midwest adversely affected winter recreation and entertainment including winter festivals, snowmobiling and skiing. In January, 39 states were significantly drier than average with Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida, and Minnesota having their driest January on record. Eighteen other states were much drier than average, and the only states with significantly above average precipitation were Washington and Idaho.
The combination of below average precipitation and anomalous warmth in the western United States, which followed several years of below average precipitation and drought, led to persistent or worsening drought conditions throughout much of the region. Moderate to extreme drought covered 75% of the western United States at the end of January, based on the Palmer Drought Index.* The dry conditions have forced many ranchers to sell livestock because of the added expense and difficulty in obtaining feed, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Seasonal snow pack levels were also very low throughout much of the West, raising concerns about the prospects for even more widespread and severe drought in the summer of 2003.
The average global surface temperature for combined land and ocean surfaces during January 2003 (based on preliminary data) was 1.0°F (0.6°C) above the 1880–2002 long-term mean, the third warmest January since 1880 (the beginning of reliable instrumental records). The warmest January on record occurred in 2002, followed by 1998. Since 1900, global January surface temperatures have risen at a rate of 1.0°F per century (0.6°C per century), but the rate has increased to approximately three times the century-scale trend since 1976.
Mature El Niño conditions continued in January, but there are indications that El Niño is weakening, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. These indications include a decrease in sea surface temperature anomalies of as much as 2.7°F (1.5°C) in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
Some of the most anomalously cold land surface temperatures during January occurred in Nepal, Bangladesh, and northern India, where a cold outbreak led to hundreds of deaths. This contrasts with temperatures across much of Canada and parts of central Asia, where January mean temperatures were more than 9°F (5°C) above average. Daytime maximum temperatures exceeding 105°F (40°C) were common in southeastern Australia in late January, the middle of the summer season in this Southern Hemisphere country. The extremely warm temperatures and a continued lack of precipitation resulted in worsening drought conditions and widespread wildfires that destroyed more than 500 homes in Canberra alone.
National and global data can be found online at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2003/jan/jan03.html.
*The Palmer Drought Index uses numerical values derived from weather and climate data to classify moisture conditions throughout the contiguous United States and includes drought categories on a scale from mild to moderate, severe, and extreme.
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Summer is the peak season for one of the nation's deadliest weather phenomenon: lightning. Thus, the National Weather Service has embarked on its Lightening Safety Awareness Week campaign, with the goal of educating and safeguarding U.S. residents from the dangers of lightning. The campaign is designed to lower lightning death and injury rates and America's vulnerability to one of nature's deadliest hazards.
In the United States, an average of 73 people are killed each year by lightning. That's more than the annual number of people killed by tornadoes or hurricanes. Many more are struck but survive. However, they often report a variety of long-term, debilitating symptoms, including memory loss, attention deficits, sleep disorders, numbness, dizziness, stiffness in joints, irritability, fatigue, weakness, muscle spasms, depression, and an inability to sit for long.
The 2nd Annual Lightning Safety Awareness Week is 22–28 June 2003. For more information see www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov.
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NASA sponsored scientists have discovered by knowing the salt content of the ocean's surface, they may be able to improve the ability to predict El Niño events. Scientists, studying the western Pacific Ocean, find regional changes in the saltiness of surface ocean water correspond to changes in upper-ocean heat content in the months preceding an El Niño event. Knowing the distribution of surface salinity may help predict events.
Salinity and temperature combine to dictate the ocean's density. Greater salinity, like colder temperatures, results in an increase in ocean density with a corresponding depression of the sea surface height. In warmer, fresher waters, the density is lower resulting in an elevation of the sea surface. These ocean height differences are related to the circulation of the ocean.
The surface salinity in two regions contributes to El Niño events: an area of warmer temperatures and lower salinity in the western Pacific, and the higher salinity and cooler temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Differences in surface salinity are related to changes in temperature and upper-ocean heat content, which are part of the El Niño phenomenon. They have the potential to influence the earth's climate through air–sea interaction at the ocean's surface.
The study, conducted for NASA by University of Maryland researchers Joaquim Ballabrera, Tony Busalacchi, and Ragu Murtugudde, is one of the first to look at ocean salinity in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions and their relationship to tropical sea surface temperatures, sea level, winds, and fresh water from rain. Results of the study are in the February issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research—Oceans.
Ballabrera and his colleagues looked at data, from 1980 to 1995, about sea surface temperatures, winds, rainfall, evaporation, sea surface height, and latent heat, the energy released when water vapor condenses into droplets.
Using computer models, they performed a series of statistical predictions of the El Niño events for the period. The results indicate short-term predictions only require monitoring sea surface temperatures, while predictions over a season require the observation of sea level. They concluded observations of salinity significantly improve predictions. When changes in salinity occur, they affect the El Niño event for the next 6 to 12 months. In this lag time, salinity changes have the potential to modify the layers of the ocean and affect the heat content of the western Pacific Ocean; the region where the unusual atmospheric and oceanic behavior associated to El Niño first develops.
By using remote sensing data from satellites, scientists will be able to see changes in ocean salinity. Knowing the lag-time factor, computer models simulating the movement of the atmosphere may be able to accurately predict El Niño episodes. This may lead to longer lead time for predictions of ENSO events.
For more information and images, see http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/2003/0114salt.html and http://essic.umd.edu/~joaquim/salinity/.
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Scientists and students from six federal agencies and many universities began to study the snow packs of the Colorado Rockies from the ground, air, and space in February. These studies will continue during March. Their goal is to improve forecasts of springtime water supply, snowmelt floods, and to study how snow cover affects the earth's weather and climate.
The 2003 Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) runs 19–25 February and 25–31 March. It will be conducted in the central Rocky Mountains of the western United States, where there is a wide array of different terrain, snow, soil, and ecological characteristics. Additional studies will help design better sensors to measure the water content of snow from space. In the future, new remote sensing measurements coupled with water and weather forecast models should improve prediction of water supplies, floods, weather and climate.
Jointly sponsored by NASA and NOAA, CLPX is concerned with landscapes where water is frozen either seasonally or permanently. Cold regions form a major component of the earth's hydrological system. This is the second year of intensive snow measurements in Colorado's mountains and high-elevation rangelands. A major advance this year is the inclusion of several advanced satellite and airborne sensors to determine the best ways to conduct remote sensing of the global cryosphere.
Measurements from four aircraft and NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites will gather snow data by remote sensing. The data gathered on the ground and from the aircraft will be compared to that obtained by the satellites to determine the accuracy of the satellite data. Researchers hope to eventually measure snow quantity and frozen ground from space, anywhere in the world without a ground team, particularly in inaccessible areas. Ground teams, however, do play a crucial part in instrument validation and calibration.
Researchers from several NASA field centers will conduct the experiment with NOAA scientists from the National Weather Service's National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NWS/NOHRSC). Other participants include scientists at the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Forest Service, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Cold Region Research and Engineering Lab, the U.S. Geological Survey, the USDA Agricultural Research Service, and graduate students from universities around the world. CLPX is sponsored by NASA's Terrestrial Hydrology Program and the Earth Observing System Program, and by NOAA's Office of Global Programs to address broad interagency objectives in hydrology, water resources, ecology, and atmospheric sciences.
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A research instrument the size of a 27-inch television set that is carried aboard NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been determined to be the most accurate and reliable remote sensing device available for measuring hurricane force winds at the sea surface. The results come from a study by scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences.
Eric Uhlhorn of the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, one of NOAA's 11 joint and cooperative institutes, and Peter Black with NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, have determined that the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) is a top performer in measuring hurricane force winds at the sea surface. It is the surface winds that impact coastal areas when hurricanes make landfall and one of the most important pieces of information gathered for hurricane forecasters and the emergency response community.
The study, published in the January 2003 issue of the AMS Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, determined that surface winds measured by the SFMR are comparable to the global positioning system (GPS) dropwindsonde measurements that are the current standard. GPS dropwindsondes are instrument packages designed to measure wind speed, temperature, and humidity as they drop from the aircraft to the surface.
The benefit of the SFMR is that winds are continuously measured during research flights, allowing for more complete mapping of hurricane surface wind structure. Scientists at the University of Massachusetts conceived and built the original SFMR. NOAA first tested the SFMR on research aircraft in 1980 during Hurricane Allen. After initial success, updated models have been used continuously on NOAA research aircraft since 1985. NOAA's Hurricane Research Division and the University of Massachusetts each operate an SFMR attached to the fuselage of NOAA's two WP-3D Orion Hurricane Hunter aircraft. NOAA's Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology is in the process of funding an additional newly redesigned SFMR to be located under the wing of one NOAA WP-3D.
The SFMR allows for improvement in surface wind studies as it takes continuous measurements of surface winds, as compared to single-point measurements from GPS dropwindsondes. The SFMR measurements are not hindered by mathematical errors, for example, when winds at flight level are extrapolated to estimations of the surface.
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A visualization of satellite data captured and processed between 1 and 20 January 2003, by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) shows heavy pollution from China and Southeast Asia blowing out over the Pacific Ocean. The near real-time capability represented by the image is a breakthrough for NCAR team members working with the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite.
The image shows levels of carbon monoxide (CO) in a region where pollution tends to begin increasing around January and continue rising through the spring. The sources include emissions from motor vehicles and industrial activities, the burning of wood and other vegetation for heat, and fires set to clear land for agriculture. Scientists are using satellite measurements along with data gathered in field campaigns to begin to untangle the different pollution sources.
In a second image, pollution from bush fires burning in southeastern Australia is clearly visible. The data were captured above the fires between 15 and 20 January. The image shows levels of CO released by the fires. Because CO persists in the atmosphere for several weeks, it can be used to trace the path of pollution plumes above the fires as the plumes drift out thousands of miles into the usually pristine air over the southern Pacific Ocean.
CO gas is a pollutant in its own right and a useful tracer for others, such as ozone at or near ground level. CO can also be used to calculate the level of pollutant-cleansing chemicals in the atmosphere, such as the hydroxyl radical. When CO levels are high, the level of hydroxyl radical is usually lower and fewer pollutants are removed from the atmosphere.
"CO is involved in much of the chemistry of the lower atmosphere, and it's now one of the few gases that we can measure from space, thanks to MOPITT," says NCAR scientist David Edwards. "The data give us a new window on chemical processes affecting the ability of the atmosphere to clean itself."
The images are available at http://www.ucar.edu/communications/newsreleases/2003/mopitt.html.
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Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are using satellite data to monitor the long-term effects of heat stresses on several coral reefs throughout the world.
While the scientists have been monitoring the stresses for some time, NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service is now providing an operational product called a "Degree Heating Week."
"Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) have been available experimentally for some time," said Dr. Alan Strong, coordinator of Coral Reef Watch at NOAA Satellites and Information. "Turning operational means that coral reef managers and stake holders will now have up-to-date, accurate, and reliable information on the status of their reefs and may be able to take active measures to prevent further damage if their site has a high DHW rating."
Using satellite-derived information, DHW's continuously monitor the cumulative thermal stress of several coral reefs throughout the globe, including Australia's Great Barrier Reef, Galapagos, the Bahamas, and others. The extent and acuteness of thermal stress, key predictors of coral bleaching, contribute to coral reef degradation worldwide.
Coral reefs compose a large and integral part of the coastal ocean, supporting a variety of sea life and providing resources of significant economic importance. Coral bleaching occurs as coral tissue expels zooxanthellae, a symbiotic algae essential to coral survival that resides within the structure of the coral. Bleaching is induced by high water temperatures.
A Degree Heating Week is designed to indicate the accumulated stress experienced by coral reefs. For example, if the current temperature of a reef site exceeds the maximum expected summertime temperature by 1°C for a period of one week, then the site receives a rating of 1 DHW. If the current temperature at the site is 2°C above the maximum expected summertime temperature or 1° above for a period of two weeks, the site would receive a rating of 2 DHWs, and so on.
Information on the Degree Heating Week product can be found at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/dhw_retro.html.
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AMS Honorary Member Mario Molina and AMS Fellow John Spengler are among six Americans who have been selected as this year's recipients of the Heinz Awards. The Heinz Awards are among the largest individual achievement prizes in the world. Named for John Heinz, the late U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, the awards embody the ideals and values he sought to advance, recognizing significant and sustained contributions in five separate areas. Molina and Spengler share this year's award for the Environment category.
One of the world's leading authorities on ozone depletion, Dr. Mario J. Molina of MIT shared the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for his work on the effects of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) on the earth's stratosphere. He was part of the internationally respected group of atmospheric scientists that helped to secure a ban on CFCs in 1979. Molina faced down critics with compelling evidence of CFCs' impact on ozone depletion. Since then, he has led a joint program studying the sources of air pollution in his native Mexico City, one of the world's most polluted cities.
Molina has played an active public role in creating awareness about his research and advocating changes in public policy. He continues to serve as a spokesman and lightning rod on issues related to atmospheric contamination and has encouraged the involvement of the business community as allies of reform. He used a portion of his Nobel monies to establish an endowed fellowship at MIT for foreign students to study atmospheric science.
Dr. John D. Spengler of Harvard University's School of Public Health has played a pivotal role in raising public consciousness over health-related issues of indoor air quality. His initial work studying the exposures of commuters in Boston to air pollution lead to his participation in the groundbreaking Six Cities studies, which explored the environmental risks associated with sulfur dioxide emissions. Eventually, Dr. Spengler and his colleagues found that indoor air quality had a great impact on overall health throughout the world. Their findings challenged air pollution laws that had focused exclusively on outdoor air pollution.
Spengler's focus on understanding the health consequences of indoor and outdoor air pollution has brought him widespread recognition. He was selected as vice chairman of a National Research Council committee that ultimately recommended the 1986 airliner smoking ban, and he serves as an advisor to both the Environmental Protection Agency and the World Health Organization. Considered a giant in his field, his vigilance and scientific discovery have resulted in guidelines and laws that have significantly reduced environmental health risks to all.
In announcing the five $250,000 awards on 11 February, Teresa Heinz, chairman of the Heinz Family Foundation, said, "These distinguished Heinz Awards honorees, though different in their backgrounds and professions, share the most noble of human qualities. Their selflessness and perseverance, imagination and passion promise a healthier, more manageable and more hopeful way of life for all of us. We are proud to recognize their exceptional work."
The Heinz Awards were established through the Heinz Family Foundation of Pittsburgh by Mrs. Heinz in 1993 to honor and carry on the legacy of her husband, who died in 1991. The awards recognize outstanding leadership and accomplishments in areas of interest to Senator Heinz. Among the philosophies by which he lived: "the most important investments—and the most profitable—are investments in people."
For more information on the awards see www.heinzawards.net.
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Ken Crawford, AMS fellow and a former National Weather Service employee with an extensive background in observing systems, will serve for six months as a senior visiting scientist to help develop a concept for improving the nation's observing system.
Crawford returned to the NWS Office of Science and Technology (OST) in February to lead the development of a vision and strategy for improving the national observing system that supports climate, hydrology, and weather analysis and forecasting. Crawford will help in developing concepts for a mesonet and cooperative observing system and will focus on improving and creating partnerships between NOAA and public/private weather observing systems.
Crawford is a Regents' Professor of meteorology at the University of Oklahoma (OU) and serves as director of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey. He has been a member of the OU faculty and the state climatologist for Oklahoma since 1989. During this period, Crawford led the development of the Oklahoma Mesonetwork, an automated network of 115 remote observing sites and a joint program with Oklahoma State University. One of the mesonet's outreach programs—OK-FIRST—was honored by Harvard University and their John F. Kennedy School of Government as one of five innovative programs in American government during 2001.
Crawford had a 30-year career with the National Weather Service. He last served as area manager for Oklahoma and was also a lead forecaster at the Forecast Office in Fort Worth, Texas, and a deputy area manager at the Forecast Office in Slidell, Louisiana. Crawford was a member of the National Research Council (NRC) National Weather Service Modernization Committee that studied and reported on the future of the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Network.
Crawford is a past president of the National Weather Association. His honors include a Commerce Silver Medal and the AMS Cleveland Abbe Award.
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