Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 308 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 12Z Sat Apr 27 2024 - 12Z Mon Apr 29 2024 ...A very active weekend in store for parts of the Central U.S.... ...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Weather concerns from Southern Plains to Mississippi Valley... ...Critical Fire Weather Risk over portions of the Southern High Plains... ...Warmer than average temperatures spreads from Midwest into Mid-Atlantic on Sunday while well below average temperatures shift from the Four Corners and Rockies into the Northern Plains... A highly amplified and slow-moving upper-level pattern will support a very active period across the Central U.S. this weekend. Today, thunderstorms will develop along a cold front and dryline extending north-south across the Southern Plains and along a quasi-stationary front draped across the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of the Southern/Central Plains, where large hail, damaging winds and multiple tornadoes will be possible. Some of these storms may produce intense rainfall rates at times, which could cause flash flooding of roads, underpasses and urban areas. There's a Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley today. Gusty winds and very low dew points will support fire weather concerns on the western side of the aforementioned dry-line. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Critical Risk of Fires over much of the Southern High Plains as a result. The focus for Excessive Rainfall and Severe Storms will expand in coverage into the Mississippi Valley on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes from east Texas into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Some of these storms may be capable of wringing out several inches of rain over vulnerable surfaces--from today's storms. Thus, another Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for the ArkLaTex on Sunday. Continued dry and windy conditions over the southern periphery of the slow-moving upper trough axis will support another Critical Fire Weather day across much of the Southern High Plains on Sunday. Meanwhile, cold continental air will pour into the Rockies on the backside of the amplified upper trough and interact with Pacific and Gulf moisture to produce heavy snow over portions of the Colorado Rockies today. Snowfall totals of 8-12 inches are likely with isolated higher amounts possible over higher elevations. Cooler air spreads east into the Northern Plains on Sunday behind the ascendant and negatively tilting upper trough trudging through the Plains. Strong southerly flow into the Mississippi Valley and Midwest today will see high temperatures climb into the 70s and 80s, which is well above average for some places. Cool and cloudy conditions over the Mid-Atlantic today should give way to the warmer conditions on Sunday. Kebede https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php