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Executive Summary

The U.S. Weather Enterprise provides timely weather forecasts and information that protect people, improve livelihoods, save money, and add tremendous economic value to our nation. The great success of the Enterprise, particularly over the past several decades, has stemmed in part from collaborations that have leveraged the strengths and perspectives of its component sectors, including the government, private industry, academia, and nonprofit organizations. However, the Enterprise is markedly different today than it was two decades or even two years ago, and that transformation is likely to continue to accelerate. Sector roles are evolving, new players are emerging, technology is advancing, and there are new demands from all economic sectors. New risks and opportunities are emerging, including to life and property due to more extreme weather events and more people living in vulnerable locations. While these issues are important and ongoing considerations, they are, as of January 2025, only part of a seismic shift in the landscape of the Enterprise.

Shortly after the Trump Administration took office on 20 January 2025, major changes in all Executive Branch agencies began to be implemented, including within those that are central to the Weather Enterprise. Reductions in agency workforce and the curtailment or elimination of a variety of government-led programs have caused significant disruption to the balanced collaboration among the sectors. Although the impacts of these changes are still unfolding, it is clear that the Enterprise is at a critical juncture as roles, responsibilities, and capabilities shift. It is incumbent on the entire Enterprise to reflect on the successes and challenges of the past few decades while also developing pathways that lead to new successes in the goal of serving the nation and its people.

This American Meteorological Society (AMS) Policy Program study originated as an examination of the Weather Enterprise two decades after the publication of the seminal Fair Weather report by the National Research Council (NRC) in 2003. It describes the state of the Weather Enterprise in the United States and how it became the envy of the world in providing value to the nation’s people and its economy. The meteorological community has identified a set of key concerns and considerations relating to the Enterprise's evolution over the past two decades. Investing attention and resources in these areas is needed in order to advance a strong Weather Enterprise. These concerns and considerations include:

• The Weather Enterprise has the opportunity to identify a "backbone" set of foundational observations in order to better help prioritize investments in observation technologies and identify redistribution requirements for data buys.
• Commercial data buys by the government are an increasingly prevalent component of the observational data used for weather-related products and services. Improvements in the use of commercial data may be possible through the development of an overarching strategy that includes published performance requirements; established standards for quality control, continuity, and accessibility; and incentives to promote private-sector investments in commercial observing systems.
• While tremendous progress has been made in the past two decades, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are not advancing as rapidly as many in the community feel they could and should, which may stem from organizational and coordination issues within the Enterprise at least as much as it does from inadequate resources. A systematic and comprehensive strategy to improve NWP models is needed to promote scientific innovation and the development of new and improved services.
• With the expansion of means of distributed communication (e.g., social media), there is a need for standards and defining best practices for critical messaging, such as warnings, as well as improved and ongoing coordination on roles and responsibilities for providing decision support services.
• Building the next generation of meteorologists will necessitate undergraduate curricula that are better aligned with workforce needs as well as an updated government 1340 requirement for meteorologists.
• A healthy research enterprise must integrate discovery-driven research and research focused on applications, along with robust systems to promote the transition from research to operations. Interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research are a crucial component of these efforts and would be strengthened by dedicated financial resources and professional incentives.
• Adjudicating the roles of each sector within the Enterprise is not within the scope of this report. However, as the Enterprise considers how to best advance science and services to meet the demands of the coming decades, there are several principles to be considered in developing pathways forward:
  • All people should have free access to the weather information needed for their safety and well-being.
  • The Enterprise should ensure that public investment avoids the creation of monopolies and continues to spur innovation for businesses of all sizes.
  • The United States should continue to be a leader in the global Weather Enterprise promoting open data sharing for foundational data needed for public well-being and assisting developing countries in developing capabilities to support the global enterprise.

Future reports will focus on providing recommendations to address these and other challenges and identifying any opportunities that may become available to the community to improve service to the public.