Palmetto Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (PAMS)

Meeting Announcement

Tuesday, June 6, 2006; 4:30 P.M.

Carolina Wings Large Meeting Room

2347-C Augusta Road

West Columbia, SC

"The Sensitivity of WRF Forecasts to their Initial Conditions"

Dr. Brian Etherton

University of North Carolina at Charlotte

ABSTRACT

Mesoscale weather features can have a significant impact on day to day weather forecasts when they represent the primary forcing (e.g., South Florida in the summertime). Some features are: tropical waves, sea breezes, land breezes, thermal troughs, and outflow boundaries. Many of these features are not represented properly in the guidance from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

The results of a sensitivity study of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model forecasts for South Florida to initial and boundary conditions are presented. For initial conditions, either NAM model analyses or analyses produced by the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) at the Weather Service Forecast Office in Miami are used. To further improve the initial conditions, alternative data assimilation schemes to LAPS are explored. One scheme that shows promise is the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The EnKF is the key element in the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART).

An introduction to Ensemble Kalman Filters, and the use of DART to assimilate radar data for improved prediction of the weather in the Houston area, will conclude the talk.

DIRECTIONS TO CAROLINA WINGS

From Augusta: Take I-20 East toward Columbia (~60 mi). Then take Exit 58 Augusta Rd./US 1 N to West Columbia/Airport. The Carolina Wings will be located on the right in approximately 6 miles. The restaurant is located in a Bi-Lo Shopping center.

From Florence: Take I-20 West toward Columbia (~80 mi). Then take I-26 East at Exit 64-A to Charleston/I-77. Take Exit 111-B off I-26 onto US 1 N to West Columbia. The restaurant is located in a Bi-Lo Shopping center about one mile on the right.

From Charleston: Take I-26 West to Columbia (~110 mi). Then take Exit 111-B (US 1 N) to West Columbia. The restaurant is located in a Bi-Lo Shopping center about one mile on the right.

From Greenville: Take I-26 East to Columbia. Then take Exit 111-B (US 1 N) to West Columbia. The restaurant is located in a Bi-Lo Shopping center about one mile on the right.