The Future of Northwest Weather Prediction
May 12th, 2012
On May 12th, 85 people gathered, despite the unseasonably sunny/warm spring day, at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) to listen to Dr. Cliff Mass give an educational talk during the Oregon AMS monthly chapter meeting. This meeting also served as the annual election meeting for the 2012/13 Oregon AMS executive council. Executive council members in attendance included, President Steve Pierce, Vice-President Bobby Corser, Secretary Mark Nelsen, Treasurer John Rinier, Councilors Tyree Wilde, Charlie Feris, and George Miller.
President Pierce opened the meeting with short presentation (click here for .pps file)detailing the final AMS meeting of the season (June 12th) with special guest speaker Kathie Dello, Deputy Director of the Oregon Climate Service (OCS).
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He also discussed the "revised" Oregon AMS summer picnic (July 14th @ 4pm) by highlighting that the Oregon AMS executive council approved the use of treasury funds to purchase food and beverage for AMS members who attend the picnic with their family / significant others. Pierce also formally announced the first few meetings of the 2012/13 AMS season, which begins in September. Next falls robust Oregon AMS season will kick off with Dr. Nate Mantua discussing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on September 12th, followed by a special meeting commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Columbus Day Storm on October 13th. November will feature the 20th annual "Winter Weather Forecast Conference" at OMSI where local forecasters will present their winter weather forecasts for 2012/13. Pierce also made a special announcement that the Oregon Chapter of the AMS has been nominated as "chapter of the year" for 2011/12. The national AMS headquarters back in Boston notes that there are approximately 160 chapters across the country. Approximately 130 of those 160 chapters are listed as "active." Out of those 130, only three nomination forms were received, including Oregon. The winner will be announced next October at the national AMS meeting. Stay tuned!
Dr. Mass, Author & Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, gave a presentation entitled, "The Future of Northwest Weather Prediction" (click here for .pps file or .pdf file)
Pictures and Video Clips of Meeting Courtsey of Tyler Mode, OR-AMS Member
Clip 1 : Clip 2 : Clip 3 : Clip 4 : Clip 5 : Clip 6 : Clip 7 : Clip 8 : Clip 9 : Clip 10 or
youtube page with all listed click here
Dr. Mass - Presentation Outline
Numercial modeling
Deterministic vs. probabilistic prediction
Forecast Skill Improvement
The Pacific Data Void No Longer Exists
Satellite Scanning
Increasing model resolution and sophistication
Hyper-resolution (1-2 km) during the next few years
Ensemble forecasts
Communicating Uncertainty
PROBCAST: www.probcast.com
The Nowcasting Revolution
The Weather Data Revolution
Smartphones are Ideal for Weather Data Delivery!
The Weather Adaptive Society
Raffle
As advertised, the Oregon AMS raffled off a $300 Davis home weather station to our own OR-AMS member, Jeff Chartier, who said that he will put it to good use in Oregon's Santiam Pass soon. Dr. Mass also auctioned off his book, along with one of his weather calendars and DVD. Thank you once again to all of you who purchased raffle tickets in support the Oregon AMS.
Election Results
The 2012 Oregon AMS election was a record-setter! We received 82 ballots; slightly over 50% turnout. Those are both records for our chapter. The secretary and 3rd councilor position ended up being real “nail-biters”; Steve Todd and Thyra Bishop exchanged the lead for the 3rd councilor position several times. In the end, Steve declined, throwing the 3rd councilor position to Thyra.
This is our new executive council: President-Steve Pierce, Vice President-Bobby Corser, Secretary-Brian MacMillan, Treasurer-John Rinier, 3 Councilors-Thyra Bishop, Mark Nelsen, Tyree Wilde.
Final Numbers:
President
Steve Pierce (74)
write In…George Miller (1)
write in…Mark Nelsen (1)
Vice President
Bobby Corser (77)
Secretary
Brian MacMillan (44)
Crystal Stout (35)
write in…Kyle Dittmer (1)
Treasurer
John Rinier (72)
write in…Linda Ignoffo (1)
Councilor (3 positions)
Mark Nelsen (68)
Tyree Wilde (52)
Steve Todd (35)
Thyra Bishop (32)
Charlie Feris (30)
Chuck Wiese (25)
Microsoft Powerpoint (.pps file extension) viewer download (click here)