Summertime Lightning Forecasting in Oregon and Washington
February 28th, 2012
On February 28th, 26 people gathered at the KPTV-12 television studio to listen to John Saltenberger give a presentation on summertime lightning forecasting in Oregon and Washington. Executive members in attendance included, President Steve Pierce, Vice-President Bobby Corsor, Secretary Mark Nelsen, Treasurer John Rinier, Councilors Tyree Wilde, and Charlie Ferris.
President Pierce opened the meeting with a short presentation (click here for .pps file) that included a warm welcome, election reminder, and current weather soundings.
John Saltenberger, meteorologist with the Northwest Interagency Corrodination Center (NWCC), presented on the topic of summertime lightning forecasting. His presentation (click here for .pps file) detailed his role as part of the NWCC Predictive Services Decision Support used by fire managers for the potential of wildfire across the Pacific Northwest. Daily changes in fire danger, fire weather, fire behavior, and the availability of fire management resources are evaluated with the goal of anticipating the potential for costly wildfire activity in the region. The readiness of firefighting resources is increased when the potential for large and costly wildfires is forecast to rise.
One of the the fundamental components of fire potential forecasting is the ability to estimate the daily number of new fire ignitions. Among other factors, outbreaks of large and costly wildfires in Oregon and Washington tend to be closely associated with high numbers of fire ignitions concentrated in small areas over short periods of time.
Saltenberger, outlined four (4) phases needed to determine the forecast for the potential of lightning, the include: phase 1 - Map Yyping, Phase 2 - GIS Support, phase 3 - Logistic Regression; phase 4 - Logistic Regression Applied to Forecasting
The system uses historical weather and fire data with statisicial probablity predictive models to to determine probablity of lightning in 12 fire potential rating areas called PSAs or “Predictive Service Areas.” PSAs are divided along boundaries determined from climatology of fire danger fluctuations. Each PSA is statistically independent of it's neighboring areas. They also serve as the basis for fire activity studies, lightning strike counts, and broad scale fire danger rating.
Informational handout (click here)
Microsoft Powerpoint (.pps file extension) viewer download (click here)