A crowd of over 500 people gathered at the Portland Airport Shilo Inn Convention Center to attend the postponed November meeting: Anthropogenic (Human Caused) Global Warming? A look at the science, both the logic and the evidence. Is this the greatest scientific myth of our generation?
The meeting, a technical lecture by Gordon Fulks, Chuck Weise, and George Taylor, lasted nearly three hours and was the single largest gathering in the history of our AMS chapter, eclipsing that of the George Taylor/Phil Mote global warming debate at OMSI back in 2007.
Video of entire meeting, courtesy: Erik Holm, Oregon AMS Member - 2 hours and 45 min total run time: Click here
The below summary includes PDF format as well as microsoft PowerPoint format presentations. Free viewers can be found by clicking on the respective link:
Adobe PDF: http://get.adobe.com/reader/
Steve Pierce, President of the Oregon Chapter of the AMS
Steve Pierce's opening presentation in pdf or pps -
The meeting opened with a welcome by Steve Pierce, Oregon Chapter President where he explained the chapter's mission:
The purpose of this society shall be to advance professional ideals in the science of meteorology and to promote the development, exchange and application of meteorological knowledge.
as well as the Chapter's position on Global Warming or Climate Change:
Oregon AMS Chapter does not endorse the speakers, nor any claims or assertions they may make. The Oregon AMS Chapter and its Executive Council have no formal position or opinion on the subject of global warming, aka; climate change. Our membership is welcome and entitled to their own opinion on this subject.
In addition, President Pierce
outlined the meetings ground rules for decorum due to the highly politicized topic. The audience enjoyed his humor of the guidelines. Pierce updated everyone on future meeting topics that included:
* Dr. Cliff Mass (U of W) - “Pacific Northwest Weather”
* Dr. Nate Mantua (U of W) - “Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)”
* Oregon Climatologist Dr. Phil Mote and/or Kathie Dello - “What’s new with the Oregon Climate Service in Corvallis?”
* Bruce Sussman – KOIN-TV “Winter Weather Recap”
Gordon Fulks, PhD Physics, University of Chicago
Gordon Fulks' opening presentation in pdf or pps - transcription in pdf
Gordon Fulks' presentation, "Global Warming: Climate Orthodoxy Perpetuates a Hoax" was built around the conclusion that "There is no satisfactory logic and evidence linking human emissions of carbon dioxide with a significant warming of our climate. NONE!" While "there is plenty of evidence that our climate is changing, and that it always has and always will change," Dr. Fulks was careful to separate climate change from Global Warming.
He used two examples of astrophysical effects that are known to influence our climate: Svensmark's cosmic rays and Milankovitch cycles, with the latter widely accepted as the explanation for Ice Ages and the former just now receiving the attention he thought it deserved.
Dr. Fulks said: "My thesis tonight is simple: virtually ALL of what climate alarmists put forth as science is not. Some is half correct, some is incorrect, and too much is just plain nonsense or worse."
This led him into what he called "one of the central problems with Anthropogenic Global Warming," "the integrity of the data." He discussed a variety of temperature data from land surface data that shows various manipulations and biases to the best global data from NASA satellites to the excellent ice core temperature proxies going back 450,000 years.
Dr. Fulks criticized Phil Mote's shrinking northwest snow pack data, showing that the full data set shows cyclic behavior. He criticized manipulations of sea level data from satellites, preferring simpler tide gauges. He argued for inclusion of high quality chemical measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide, because they provide an important bridge between ice core proxies and modern IR measurements.
Of particular concern to Dr. Fulks were the climate codes which he pointed out are "simulations" not exact solutions of the fundamental physics. In disagreement with these, he maintained that "the real long term threat is global cooling." Finally, he quoted MIT Professor of Meteorology Richard Lindzen: "The need to resist hysteria is clear."
Chuck Wiese, Meteorologist - Oregon State University
Chuck Wiese's opening presentation in pdf or pps(large file 22 MB) -
Chuck Wiese's presentation, "Human Caused Climate Change? A Real Look At The Physics And Evidence", provided a technical and detailed look at the data. His lecture, the longest of the evening, questioned the anthropogenic hypothesis of the affect by CO2 gases by explaining the influence of water vapor in the atmosphere.
Mr. Wiese specifically stated:
“A comparison of the changes in the earth's outgoing longwave radiation over the last 61 years from water vapor trends retrieved off of the NOAA TIGR radiosonde global network ending in the year 2008 show that tropospheric water vapor has declined .649% of the mean value of 2.61775 precipitable centimeters, which offsets the CO2 radiation absorption since the year 1960 by .35 Wm-2 of increased outgoing longwave radiation. CO2 absorption on the other hand decreased the outgoing longwave radiation by 1.10 Wm-2 rising from the 1960 value of 312 ppmv to the present value of 389 ppmv. Factoring in an appropriate cloud reduction (The earth is 60% cloud covered at any one time so 31% or the earth's albedo is appropriate ) since this is a clear sky condition only, reduces the CO2 absorption and water vapor emission to .76Wm-2 and .24 Wm-2 respectively, the difference being a decrease in the outgoing longwave radiation by .52 Wm-2. Dividing this result by the derivative of the Stefan Boltzman equation at the mean earth temperature of 288K gives the result of .10 Deg C, which is only 8.3% of the temperature change observed since 1960. If the CO2 is extrapolated to a 1948 value based upon a pre-industrial value of 288 ppmv observed around 1900 that, linearly would correspond to a value near 308 ppmv in the year 1948, which is within 5 ppmv and .1Wm-2 of the answer given using the 1960 CO2 value of 312 ppmv. I chose not to use values before 1960 back to the year 1900 because there are some questions that are raised about the consistency and accuracy of measurements in between those times. Also, the purpose of this comparison is not meant as an exact answer as to how much CO2 affected the temperature, but only to demonstrate that through the moving time continuum, CO2's contribution if any, was small, as these basic numbers do not consider evaporation or increased cloud thickness, which CO2 can cause through some enhancement of the hydrological cycle. These processes also mitigate against a rising temperature and were not considered because it is extremely difficult to quantify them on any sort of a global scale. The primary conclusion is that the numbers demonstrate that CO2 does not drive the earth's climate."
Mr. Wiese finished his presentation with the following conclusions:
1. There is nothing in the REAL atmospheric record that supports the recent temperature rise of the last century to carbon dioxide induced anthropogenic warming.
2. The tropospheric water vapor optical depth is remarkably stable but has declined recently over the last 70 years of record as carbon dioxide rose substantially in the atmosphere during the same period. This is a consistent outcome as expected by the first principle founding physics and inconsistent with atmospheric climate models.
3. Without water vapor acting as a positive feedback ( growth pattern ) to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, the projected radiative forcing on the earth's surface is but a grossly exaggerated calculation of what the earth's temperature will actually do in response to carbon dioxide.
4. The earth's "greenhouse effect" is NOT controlled by atmospheric carbon dioxide. It is modulated and governed by atmospheric water vapor and clouds, where the warming modulation is controlled by the amount of vapor and optical depth. Clouds with the hydrological cycle act to trim out water vapor into a hydrostatic, convective equilibrium. The stable atmospheric optical depth likes the earth mean temperature of 59 deg F without further solar or planetary modulation.
5. The Anthropogenic warming hypothesis by atmospheric CO2 is falsified by the real record and radiation physics.
George Taylor, former Oregon State Climatologist
George Taylor's opening presentation in pdf or pps -
George Taylor's presentation, "Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest and Elsewhere", opened on a light note about the causes of global warming, indicating maybe a little of both human activity and natural cycles were the cause. His presentations showed data from locations that he considered representative of Oregon and the Northwest.
In Particluar, Mr. Taylor displayed graphs that illustrated:
- a decline in temperatures for Oregon in the past ten years and in Corvallis a decline over the past 20 years.
- cyclical trends in Oregon temperatures, with the warmest period in the 1930s, cooling decades in the 1950s, 1960s and early 1970, warm again from the mid-1970s through about 2000, and cooler since.
- snowpack has increased from 1976 to 2008 over 83 sites in the state of Washington, in contrast to Gov. Christine Gregoire 2009 statement that snowpack decreased by 20% in that period.
- Cascade snow reporting stations have been reported to be in decline over the period 1950-1997. Mr. Taylor verified this. However, if the complete period of record is used (1920s through current), no trend can be seen. There is strong evidence for a cyclical character, perhaps due to long-term changes in the tropical Pacific (see PDO below).
- North America snow extents have a slight increase with Northern Hemisphere snow extent average.
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variations coincide with, and probably cause, the pronounced cyclical character of temperature and precipitation trends.
- tropical cyclone activity since the 1970 showed no significant trend.
- Arctic surface temperatures peaked in the 1930's. Correlation of Arctic temperatures with PDO appears likely.
- Antarctic temperatures are falling and sea ice is increasing.
His presentation finished with his conclusions:
1. Human activities DO affect climate, in a variety of ways. Greenhouse gases are just one parameter.
2. Natural variations affect climate. I believe that they have been more significant influences on climate because they do a much better job of explaining observed variations.
3. Effects of future changes in CO2 are likely to be modest and manageable.
4. Many aspects of climate remain poorly understood.
Special thanks to Tyler Mode for the pictures, additional pictures can be found here.