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Last Update 03/26/07 |
March 20, 2007 -- Dr. Richard Pasch, Senior Hurricane Specialist, National Hurricane Center On Tuesday, March 20th, the North FL AMS held its March General Meeting. Jessica Fieux, president, welcomed everyone and opened the meeting. Officer Reports followed Jessica. Firstly, Clark Evans, vice president, discussed the annual picnic, which will be held at Tom Brown Park . The Picnic will be Saturday, April 21st. Mountain biking, Frisbee golf, and undergraduate versus graduate Flag Football, are just a few activities in store for the picnic. Treasurer Charlie Woodrum followed Clark with the account balance, $864, as well as his summary of the Miniature Golf Tournament, which was held March 13th at the Fun Station on Sharer Rd. 13 people were in attendance, and fun was had by all. Prizes were given for the best and worst individual score, as well as the best and worst team score. Secretary Katie Walls then spoke of the upcoming bake sale, April 11th. Nominations for Chapter Officers for the 2007-2008 school year were also voiced. Nominations will not close until the next meeting, April 17th, when we will begin the voting procedure. Our featured speaker was Dr. Richard Pasch, Senior Hurricane Specialist of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL , who spoke on “Life in the Hot Seat”. Dr. Pasch received his Master’s and Ph.D. from the Florida State University in 1983. He discussed the forecasting process, predicting 120 hour hurricane tracks and intensity, and 3 day wind radii forecasts. The National Hurricane Center is responsible for all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. This upcoming season, the NHC will try a new model on hurricane prediction: the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model, or HWRF. This model uses advanced physics and state of the art initialization. In recent years the NHC has used the GFDL model, which has provided the best guidance for track predictions. The Consensus Forecasts or Ensemble Forecasts have proven to be the most accurate, because the Ensemble cancels out random errors of individual models. Unfortunately, Dr. Pasch made it clear that Intensity forecasts continue to be the NHC’s weakest aspect of forecasting. The models have not improved in almost fifteen years. He and the NHC hope that the new model, the HWRF will provide better models for prediction of hurricane intensity. For more information: Jessica Fieux, northflams@gmail.com. Report submitted by Katie Walls, Secretary. |
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