Pictures courtesy of the National Weather Service,
NASA and the NOAA Library
The Future Role of the Human in
the Forecast Process – An Interactive Forum
(Brought to you by the AMS Board for Operational
Government Meteorologists and AMS Weather and Forecasting Committee)
Presentation 1 – Introduction
with discussion and references to previous studies
Presentation 2 – Summary
of sessions 1 and 2 conducted 13-14 January 2004 at AMS Annual meeting in
Seattle, WA
Please be sure to go to http://www.nwstc.noaa.gov/cgi/dcforum/dcboard.cgi for discussion of issues related to the role of the human in the forecast process.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Issues and references are below:
- Will humans be able to add value to
computer-generated forecasts and warnings, to remain a necessary element
of the forecast process?
- What does this mean for the future of our
profession?
- Will there be a reduced need for human
intervention in the overall forecast and warning process?
- What role should humans have in the evolving
forecast process?
- To establish a foundation for additional,
routine forums on the evolving role of the human in the forecast process.
- To provide input to decision-makers, to
influence their perceptions of how to keep humans in the forecast process.
2. Characteristics of a good forecaster
4.What is the appropriate role for NWP in the forecast process?
5.What tools would best serve operational forecasters, how should they be
designed and tested? (could include improvements in guidance, forecast
composition methods, programming and testing methods of software)
Suggested References (not
required, but will provide important insight into the issue)*
The New
Digital Forecast Database of the National Weather Service. Harry R. Glahn and David P. Ruth
6.What knowledge and training is needed for operational forecasters to take
advantage of new technology and NWP guidance?
Suggested References (not
required, but will provide important insight into the issue)*
NWS Training plan
and resources.
7.How must forecasts be evaluated and verified?
8.How should we increase the role of probabilistic forecasts, and help users
understand probabilistic forecasts?
Cognitive
Task Analysis of the NWS Warning Forecaster position – NWS Warning
Decision Training Branch link to Klein and Associates from Decisionmaking.com
Impact
of Automation on Expertise – Powerpoint presentation from Warning
Decision Training Branch, based on Dr. Gary Klein’s research
The
changing employment scene for meteorology: How universities are adapting. Carol
Rasmussen Ed.
Will
for-profit meteorology take up the federal hiring slack? Robert Henson
Why
the Weather Research and Private Sector Weather Communities Need to Work
Together. Jim Block
The
Future of the "Public-Private Partnership" Toward a More Synergistic
Relationship in the 21st Century. Michael R. Smith
*Some links
may not be available depending on funding for online access to AMS journals.
NWS personnel can access AMS journal articles from the NOAA Central Library.