Atmospheric News
Air Quality Forecasts Become Operational in 15 States
The National Weather Service and the Environmental Protection Agency have made air quality guidance part of their operational forecasts in an additional fifteen states. The added guidance is helping state and local agencies issue enhanced and more geographically specific ozone air quality warnings to the public.
Operational air quality guidance that previously covered only the northeastern quarter of the United States now includes all or parts of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Texas.
This summer’s hot, sunny weather provided a rigorous test, with several episodes of poor air quality from the build-up of ground-level ozone. Improved air quality forecast algorithms for cloudy conditions also demonstrated target forecast accuracy during several months of real-time testing and evaluation.
The Air Quality Forecast now provides hour-by-hour ozone forecasts through midnight of the following day for the entire eastern half of the United States, in a graphical representation at a five-kilometer mesh resolution. The capability provides information for urban and rural communities alike, with geographic specificity much greater than with the former metro area-wide alerts issued for participating communities. This information is posted on NOAA and EPA data servers, available to the public and state and local air quality forecasters.
NOAA's National Weather Service weather forecast models simulate atmospheric chemical conditions using pollutant emissions and monitoring data from the EPA. Twice daily, early in the morning and early afternoon, operational supercomputers at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction produce ground-level ozone forecasts available on NWS and EPA data servers.
The expanded ozone forecast guidance is one of the steps in building a national Air Quality Forecast capability that will continue to grow over the next decade. Coverage will expand to the entire nation within four years. The Air Quality Forecast capability is being built by a team of NOAA and EPA scientists who are developing, testing, and operationally implementing improvements in the science of air quality prediction for real-time predictions. Once ozone forecasts are available throughout the U.S., the capability will be extended to include particulate matter forecasts, then cover longer time periods (day two and beyond) and eventually, additional pollutants.
Air Quality forecast guidance is online at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/aq/
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Ozone Layer No Longer Declining
An analysis of records from several satellites and surface monitoring instruments shows that the ozone layer is no longer declining, scientists from the NOAA and four U.S. universities report. The analysis also shows that in some parts of the world, the ozone layer has increased a small amount in the past few years, although ozone is still well below normal levels. The study is the first to show a leveling off of stratospheric ozone after more than two decades of decline.
The results were published Aug. 31 in the Journal of Geophysical Research, 18 years after an international agreement, the Montreal Protocol, was established to limit the production of chemicals determined to be harmful to the atmosphere.
Scientists say that ozone in some areas is still quite low compared to the historical record and that the return of ozone to normal levels will be slow – likely taking several decades. The chemicals responsible for the ozone depletion can take years to filter up to the stratosphere, where most ozone is located. Some of these chemicals remain in the stratosphere for many decades, meaning that chemicals produced years ago will continue to be harmful for decades to come.
Greg Reinsel of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the study’s lead author, was one of the first researchers to quantify ozone decline more than 20 years ago. He died unexpectedly after completing this study. The other co-authors are Alvin Miller, Lawrence Flynn, and Ron Nagatani from NOAA, George Tiao, of the University of Chicago; and Don Wuebbles of the University of Illinois.
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Forecast Improvements on the Horizon
The National Weather Service announced a significant improvement in the weather and climate models that produce forecasts out to 15 days. In September, NWS’s Environmental Modeling Center began producing more detailed atmospheric information, that allows public and private meteorologists to forecast with increasing accuracy.
The announcement follows major upgrades to the Global Forecast System, which is the primary model used to forecast weather patterns around the globe. Meteorologists use the GFS in a variety of National Weather Service forecasts including those for hurricanes, heavy precipitation, drought, snowstorms, icing and aviation. The GFS upgrades include improved atmospheric physics, a clearer representation of the Earth’s terrain, enhanced satellite data from NASA’s Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder, as well as other technical changes.
The GFS produces forecasts of wind, temperature, humidity and air pressure for the atmosphere up to 35 miles above the Earth for 1 to 15 days. NOAA is currently working on additional ways to extract and use even more of NASA’s AIRS data in NOAA’s operational weather and climate forecast models.
Based on a re-analysis of selected 2004 North Atlantic tropical storms, NOAA scientists and forecasters are expecting, on average, about a 12-15 percent reduction in track forecast errors at 24 through 36 hours and about a 20 percent reduction in track forecast errors at 4-5 days. The GFS is one of the most important members of the National Weather Service’s family of forecast models.
Details are online at NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center : http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov
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Baltimore Inner Harbor Thunderstorm Assessment Online
The National Weather Service recently issued an assessment of its performance before and during the thunderstorm of March 6, 2004, which produced wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph in the Baltimore metropolitan area. A water taxi loaded with 25 people in Baltimore’s Inner Harbor capsized in the winds, killing five passengers.
In its assessment, the National Weather Service determined services provided by the Baltimore-Washington Weather Forecast Office met established requirements; however, information could have been more timely. A Small Craft Advisory was in effect for Baltimore Harbor on the afternoon of March 6, and Short Term Forecasts and a Special Marine Warning were issued as forecasters became aware of high winds. However, the service assessment team determined forecasters were responding quickly to changes in the weather conditions they were not expecting when they issued the forecasts and warning. With better access to additional observational data and a more aggressive and efficient analysis of evolving weather conditions, it is likely forecasters would have increased their concern for thunderstorm development and associated high winds.
Note: The lead agency on a separate accident investigation was the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). The National Weather Service and U.S. Coast Guard were partners with the NTSB in the formal accident investigation. The National Weather Service’s service assessment examined issues directly related to NWS services but did not determine probable cause of the accident or address issues related to the water taxi and operating procedures of mariners in Baltimore’s Inner Harbor.
The complete assessment is available online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bih.pdf
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NOAA Awards Raytheon $300 Million AWIPS Contract
NOAA has awarded Raytheon Technical Services Company LLC a $300 million, performance-based contract for the operations and maintenance, optional product improvements, and software maintenance and support of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS).
The contract is for five years, with five one-year award terms for a potential of a 10-year contract. The contract has the potential value of approximately $300 million over a 10-year contract life.
AWIPS is the computerized system that processes and overlays multiple data sources to allow local Weather Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers to generate weather and water forecasts and warnings. It is a cornerstone technology of the modernized National Weather Service.
AWIPS continually evolves to accommodate new science and technology to meet National Weather Service, NOAA and Department of Commerce strategic goals. This contract represents a new phase in the operation and maintenance of AWIPS, increasing system performance and functionality and improving forecasts and warning timeliness to support the National Weather Service mission.
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Climate Model Links Higher Temperatures to Prehistoric Extinction
Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have created a computer simulation showing Earth's climate in unprecedented detail at the time of the greatest mass extinction in the planet's history. The work supports a theory that an abrupt and dramatic rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide triggered the massive die-off 251 million years ago. The research appears in the September issue of Geology.
The authors focused on the end of the Permian Era, when an estimated 90 to 95% of all marine species, as well as about 70% of all terrestrial species, became extinct. At the time, higher-latitude temperatures were
18 to 54 degrees Fahrenheit (10 to 30 degrees Celsius) higher than today, and extensive volcanic activity had released large amounts of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere over a 700,000-year period.
To solve the puzzle of how those conditions may have affected climate and life around the globe, the researchers turned to the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). The model can integrate changes in atmospheric temperatures with ocean temperatures and currents. Research teams had previously studied the Permian extinction with more limited computer models that focused on a single component of Earth's climate system, such as the ocean.
The CCSM indicated that ocean waters warmed significantly at higher latitudes because of rising atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2), a greenhouse gas. The warming reached a depth of about 10,000 feet (4,000 meters), interfering with the normal circulation process in which colder surface water descends, taking oxygen and nutrients deep into the ocean.
As a result, ocean waters became stratified with little oxygen, a condition that proved deadly to marine life. This in turn accelerated the warming, since marine organisms were no longer removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
The CCSM's simulations showed that ocean circulation was even more stagnant than previously thought. In addition, the research demonstrated the extent to which computer models can successfully simulate past climate events. The CCSM appeared to correctly capture key details of the late Permian, including increased ocean salinity and sea surface temperatures in the high latitudes that paleontologists believe were 14 degrees Fahrenheit (8 degrees Celsius) higher than present.
For more information see http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ and http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2005/permian.shtml
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New E-mail UV Alert System Joins Fight Against Skin Cancer
E-mail has joined shade, sunblock, sunglasses, and protective clothing as the latest tool to fight skin cancer and other harmful effects of the sun's ultraviolet (UV) rays. EPA and the National Weather Service (NWS) developed and launched the UV Alert system -- a free service that notifies e-mail subscribers when solar UV radiation and the risk of overexposure is predicted to be unusually high. Based on the NWS's daily UV Index forecasts, the system delivers warnings directly to e-mail in-boxes across the country.
The UV Index is a measure of the amount of skin-damaging UV radiation reaching the earth's surface. Currently, NWS's UV Index forecasts provide information about UV intensity during the solar noon hour of the following day. The UV Index informs people when rays will be strongest and provides suggestions on how best to protect themselves from the harmful rays.
UV Alerts are normally more frequent from spring through fall and in parts of the country where the amount of sunlight often varies. The NWS and EPA provide daily UV Index forecasts for 58 major metropolitan areas and by ZIP Code. The UV Index forecast is available online at: http://epa.gov/sunwise/uvindex.html, where visitors can register to receive the free e-mail UV Alerts.
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AccuWeather Tapped for 10 ABC Digital Weather Channels
AccuWeather, Inc.’s has announced that its customized service will power digital weather channels being launched this year in ten markets served by ABC owned television stations.
The new local weather channels are rolling out at ABC owned WABC-TV New York, KABC-TV Los Angeles, WLS-TV Chicago, WPVI-TV Philadelphia, KGO-TV San Francisco and KTRK-TV Houston (all ranked among Nielsen's top ten markets) and at WTVD-TV Raleigh-Durham, NC; KFSN-TV Fresno, CA; WJRT-TV Flint, MI; and WTVG-TV Toledo, OH.
Each channel will be station-branded as appropriate for its individual local market and will also be identified as powered by AccuWeather.com.
The local focus is part of AccuWeather's convergence solution, which allows for a uniform weather presentation across all media--wireless, desktop, broadcast, Internet, and digital. AccuWeather is providing coordinated weather support for all of ABC's web sites and is also supporting the weather desktop application featured by most of ABC's owned stations.
For more information see www.accuweather.com
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