Chapter News
October 2004


CHICAGO

October Meeting

What the "Service" is About

Mr. James Stefkovich, the Meteorologist in Charge of the National Weather Service office in Chicago spoke at the October meeting of the Chicago Chapter of the American Meteorological Society. Mr. Stefkovich's presentation was titled "What the 'Service' is About."

The Chicago Office of the National Weather Service has responsibility for forecasts and warnings for 18 counties in Illinois, 5 counties in Indiana as well as all of Lake Michigan. Information generated by Chicago office include aviation forecasts (5 routine Terminal Area Forecasts) including forecasts for O'Hare International Airport, an expanding hydrologic program, fire weather information and public forecasts including warnings.

A staff of 25 government employees at the Chicago office provides an outreach program to enable interested parties, including Universities, counties and emergency preparedness personnel to become "Storm Ready." Personnel from the Chicago office also provide over 50 talks to groups each year, 35 tours of the forecast office and job shadowing for more than a dozen high school and college students each year. Eighty-eight cooperative observing sites are supported by the Chicago office.

Information technology is rapidly expanding at the Chicago National Weather Service office as well as NWS offices around the country. The Chicago office has 56 computers and also maintains eight Automated Surface Observation Stations (ASOS). The Chicago National Weather Service web site has 1 to 2 million hits each month. Radar images, local observations and climatic information are three of the most frequently visited portions of the Chicago office web site. The Graphic Forecast Editor (GFE) enables Weather Service forecasters to provide detailed gridded forecasts on an hour by hour basis.

Enhanced River Forecast products are available with the assistance of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Lead-time on potential flooding situations should be increased as the products are improved upon.

Forecasters at the Chicago National Weather Service office produce written reports concerning weather conditions including severe weather in the region. Four to five new reports generated by office personnel are put on the web site for review each year.

Amateur radio has helped improve severe weather warnings. A National Weather Service Ham team is in place to help provide information concerning developing storm situations to Weather Service forecasters on a timely basis.

The Chicago Area Snow Team (CAST) allows the public to provide snowfall data to Weather Service personnel which is displayed on the Chicago office web site in conjunction with data from cooperative observers increasing the amount of information concerning snowfall which is generally available.

The Chicago office is striving to improve the probability of detection of severe weather, tornado and flooding occurrences. An increase in forecast lead time for severe weather is also a high priority.

All of the services provided to the public by National Weather Service offices throughout the country are done so for a fee of approximately $2.50 per U.S. citizen per year.---Mark T. Carroll.


DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

DC Chapter. The 27 October 2004 meeting of DC Chapter of the AMS was held at the US Naval Observatory (USNO), Washington, District of Columbia, giving guests and members a unique opportunity to get a closer view of the evening's lunar eclipse. The host for the evening was CDR Mark Gunzelman. Following a Social Hour with hors d' oeuvres and a short business meeting, the Naval Observatory Public Affairs Officer Geoff Chester made a few comments. He remarked that this was the first time that a lunar eclipse occurred during the World Series.

[NOTE: The following information is taken from the USNO web page, http://www.usno.navy.mil]

The USNO is one of the oldest scientific agencies in the country. It was founded out of necessity in the year 1830 as the Depot of Charts and Instruments, its primary mission was to care for the U.S. Navy's chronometers, charts and other navigational equipment. In 1844, as its mission evolved and expanded, the Depot was reestablished as the USNO and was located on the hill north of where the Lincoln Memorial now stands (i.e. Foggy Bottom). For nearly 50 years the Observatory remained at the Foggy Bottom location. During these years significant scientific studies were carried out such as speed of light measurements, the phenomena of solar eclipses and transit of Venus expeditions. The astronomical and nautical almanacs were started in 1855. In 1877, while working for the USNO, astronomer Asaph Hall discovered the two satellites of Mars. However, by the 1890's, it was clear that the USNO had to move out of the city. Unhealthy conditions in the Foggy Bottom neighborhood had taken their toll. In 1893, after nearly 50 years at the site on the Potomac River, the USNO moved to its present location. Along with the new programs such as daily monitoring of solar activity, the old functions of time keeping and telescopic observations were kept intact when the Observatory moved to the new site. The old Observatory in Foggy Bottom was declared a National Historic landmark in 1966.

Today, the USNO is the preeminent authority in the areas of time keeping and celestial observing; determining and distributing the timing and astronomical data required for accurate navigation and fundamental astronomy. The mission of the USNO is to:

  1. Determine the positions and motions of celestial bodies, motions of the Earth, and precise time.
  2. Provide astronomical and timing data required by the Navy and other components of the Department of Defense (DoD) for navigation, precise positioning, and command, control, and communications.
  3. Make these data available to other government agencies and to the general public.
  4. Conduct relevant research, and perform such other functions as may be directed by higher authority.
The USNO library contains over 80,000 volumes and is one of the leading astronomical libraries in the world. In addition to its extensive holdings of current scientific publications, the library also serves as an archive for many rare books and periodicals dating back to the 15th century, including the works of Galileo, Kepler and Copernicus.

DoD directive charges the USNO charged with maintaining the DoD reference standard for Precise Time and Time Interval (PTTI). Determination and dissemination of time have been an essential part of the USNO mission since it's beginning in 1830. During that time, clock technology has evolved from precision pendulum clocks to quartz crystal clocks to the present hydrogen maser and cesium-beam atomic clocks. Increasingly accurate and reliable time information is required in many aspects of military operations. The USNO has developed the world's most accurate atomic clock system. Time dissemination, accurate to a few tenths of a second with the time ball, is now accurate to within a few billionths of a second with GPS. Modern navigation systems depend on the availability and synchronization of highly accurate clocks. In the communications and the intelligence fields, time synchronized activities are essential. The USNO Master Clock is the time and frequency standard for all of these systems. The Master Clock system now incorporates hydrogen masers, which in the short term are more stable than cesium beam atomic clocks, and mercury ion frequency standards, which are more stable in the long run. Accurate time synchronization with the Master Clock is now beginning to be carried out through the use of atomic clocks in satellites, such as the GPS satellites, which will provide the primary means of time synchronization and worldwide time distribution in the future.

The USNO's largest telescope is the 26-inch refractor. Completed in 1873 at a cost of $50,000 and erected on the grounds of the old Naval Observatory site in the Foggy Bottom section of Washington, it was the largest refracting telescope in the world for a decade. The move to the Observatory's present site in 1893 allowed the 26-inch lens to be re-mounted in a new dome. This design incorporated a rising floor to facilitate access to the eyepiece. This floor is still the largest elevator in the city! Today, the telescope is used on every clear night to measure the parameters of double stars. Over the years, visual observations by astronomers using micrometers have been replaced by electronic imaging techniques. Several thousand stars are measured annually, and the database of such observations, added to the visual observations dating back over a century, provide for one of the most concise double star catalogs in the world. The telescope is also used to measure the positions of the moons of the outer planets to help refine their orbital parameters. These data are vital in planning missions to such distant worlds.

Chester finished his remarks by stating that Digital communication can not happen without the timescale information that the Naval Observatory provides. He also said that since the founding of the Naval Observatory the mission has not changed but the accuracy to which the Navy provides timing and astronomical data has drastically changed and improved. For Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) navigation, accuracies of 1 nanosecond are required (i.e., 1 billionth of a sec). He said the in the future we will need accuracies to 1 picosecond (i.e., one trillionth of a second).

Following Chester's remarks, CDR Gunzelman and Mr. Chester took members and guests on a tour of the Observatory's Library, and followed this with an opportunity to view the lunar eclipse through a telescope.---Lauraleen O'Connor.


HOUSTON

Houston AMS Chapter Minutes - October 19th Meeting

Speakers:
Paul Janish, Entergy-Koch Trading, LP
Jason Lynn, Duke Energy
Dave Margolin, Reliant Energy, Inc.
Greg Stanko, Dynegy, Inc.

Topic: The varying aspects of meteorology careers in today's energy trading market.

The October meeting was setup as a panel discussion amongst four of Houston's main energy trader forecasters. Needless to say, after the 2001 collapse of Enron, the energy trading market has gone through a substantial flux. Many of these once strong traders in the booming late '90s to early 2000s were now forced to re-prioritize their workforce. Their need for in-house weather forecasting seemed to become less of a priority. In a mere three-year span, there are significantly less directly employed energy market meteorologists. Thus, we were fortunate to assemble a panel of weather forecasters from this country's largest and well-known energy trading firms of Reliant, Entergy, Dynegy, and Duke.

An introduction and background of each meteorologist kicked off the second meeting of the Houston AMS 2004-05 season. The main theme was to understand how forecasting plays a role in the volatile world of energy trading and how each company differed in their approach of communicating evolving weather patterns. Three of the companies were asset-driven, meaning they based success on hourly, near real-time, market behavior. Obviously, these very short-term forecasts are more challenging (hourly temperatures, winds, etc.) than lesser confidence, pattern-trending long-term interpretations (planetary wave patterns of troughs and ridges).

The stress-factor was discussed, although the overall trading floor stress level has gradually declined since around mid-2002. Of course, the private versus the government's method of forecasting was brought up, especially when dealing with the tropical cyclone forecasting coming out of TPC. There were issues upon the government and the energy trading interests not being aligned. The government's priorities and the timeliness of information distribution are based upon the mission of saving life and property. Of course, from a business standpoint, TPC's methods are neither timely nor informative enough out past three or four days. The psychology in energy trading is one of a gambler's mentality; willing to take a calculated risk with a weather forecast if the forecaster has a fair degree of confidence. Most traders on the bustling open floor environment do respect the staff meteorologists. The trader's decisions in moving shares from one part of the country to the other (based on the weather) ultimately reflects that confidence in the forecast(er). In summary, other topics that were discussed were salaries / bonuses, meteorologist-trader relationships, and the price-driven supply and demand attitude in the day-to-day, hour-to-hour trading of energy shares.---Patrick Blood.


IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

AMS Meeting Minutes - Meeting #3 10/25/04
General Email List: isuams@iastate.edu
Officer Email List: amsofficers@iastate.edu
AMS Homepage: www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams

Treasuer Update
We have $920 in our account.

Forecast Update
First Snow-We reopened the payment window for tonight's meeting only!!!!
AMS Contest-There's nothing really new to report, it just keeps going and going and going and….
National-We are forecasting for Minneapolis, MN at the moment. Scores for New Orleans, LA will be posted tomorrow afternoon. Look for an email from Janet Schenck (thatsme@iastate.edu). Also, we set out clocks back on October 31st at 2 am, so this means that forecasts will now be due at 6 pm instead of 7 pm. Janet will email you all to remind you of this change.

Fundraiser
Janet has called Hy-Vee and Sams Club about discounting the prices on bulk hot chocolate. Hy-Vee is the most helpful with this. They are going to give us half off the price of their hot chocolate mix. Kari has the water heaters so we're pretty good on equipment. If you have anything helpful or any ideas, email Janet Schenck (thatsme@iastate.edu)

Social
Intermurals-Talk to Elise if you have any questions, she will send an email later.
AMS will sponsor a tailgate at the Nebraska game (Saturday, November 6th).
We're probably not going to have an other tailgates until this game. If you have any social ideas, email Elise Johnson (elisevj@iastate.edu)
The NWA meeting is this Thursday. Look for an email from Elise later on talking about time, drivers, etc. If you're interested, email Elise Johnson.

Cy's Eyes Update
We will be having a Halloween show this Wednesday, Make sure you watch, it'll be a fun show!
Weather Packages will be done next Monday after Cy's Eyes. If you have any ideas, email Kari or Elise.
If you signed up to be part of the show, please come! We miss you!

Offutt Air Force Update
We are still waiting to hear from the Air Force Base. The tentative date will be on November 29th.

AMS/Faculty Dinner Update
We have put in our reservation and this dinner will be at Hickory Park on Wednesday, November 17th at 5:00 pm. We have a lot of people interested! If you signed up, please make sure you come!! This will be a great way to interact with faculty outside of the classroom.

Apparel
Make sure to get a apparel order form. You have from now to November 5th. Get stuff to Adam or Brian (aka Miss Weather). Cash or Check. Checks made out to ISU AMS. DUE BY NOVEMBER 5TH!! You can give your stuff to Adam, Brian (aka Miss Weather), or to the AMS mailbox in the office. If you want a car sticker, talk to Jon Hobbs ($5 a piece).

Quest for the Radar
The quest is coming along! We have a lot of interest in this project. If this is part of the new building fund on campus could take 7years. We would like to get this going at a faster rate. If possible, we would like to form a new fundraising committee the will be part of AMS. Email Chris Maiers (biff016@iastate.edu) if you are interested in anything involving the radar project.

Costume Contest
We had a lot of great costumes including an old man, Tigger, Dick Tracy, Dew Point Depression, and more. And the winner was……Brian Viner as Miss Weather! Second place went to Kira as Dew Point Depression and third went to Bill as Dick Tracy.

Small Groups
We got together in our small groups. If you don't know what group you're in, email the officer's email list.

Co-Social Chair/Sophomore Liaison
We know have a Co-Social Chair/Sophomore Liaison. This position went to Liz White. If you have any questions/concerns/comments/etc that you don't feel comfortable going to an upper-classman, feel free to email Liz White (edw@iastate.edu).

Next Meeting
Thursday, December 2nd at 7 pm. Location TBA

Segment of Fun!!!!!!
I think we'll try a poll this week. Email me back (thatsme@iastate.edu) with your answer. I will give the poll results at the next meeting. The poll will close the day before the next meeting (December 1st) at 7 pm. Poll: What was your favorite part of our Halloween meeting?
A) Seeing everyone in their costumes (Brian as Miss Weather, Dew Point Depression, Tigger, etc)
B) Candy!!!!
C) I didn't really enjoy anything in particular at this meeting---Janet Schenck.


LYNDON STATE COLLEGE

General Business Meeting: October 6, 2004

Start: 7:12 p.m. Attendance: 68 (including officers)

President Jim Politis Vice President Andrew Little Treasurer Brian Mellor Secretary Josh Webber Public Relations Ryan Low Community Outreach Steve LaVoie At the end of the meeting, a group photo was taken for the 2004-2005 year.

End: 8:10 p.m.---Joshua Webber.


MILLERSVILLE UNIVERSITY

October Meeting Minutes

On the October 6th meeting we held our annual Internship Forum, where we have students speak about the internships experiences that they completed over the summer. This year we have 7 students volunteer to talk about their internship. Senior, Evan Lowery, did an internship with the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, NJ during this past summer. Melissa Burt, talked about her research internship with SOARS the past 2 summers in Boulder, CO. Courtney Hanna completed a research internship in Norman Oklahoma, where she worked with the Storm Prediction Center and was funded through ORISE. Angela Rowe took part in REU (Research Experience for Undergraduates) in Norman, OK, where she worked on a research project with the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Cassie Behofist did a television internship at WHP-21 in Harrisburg, PA. Dale Unruh, completed an internship at the Department of Environmental Protection in Harrisburg, PA. Maureen Maiuri worked at the Franklin Institute in Philadelphia, PA for her internship.

All seven students talked about how they obtained there internships, what they did, and how they liked their experience in general. Then the discussion was open to the other student to ask the participants in the panel any questions about the internships talked about. Overall the Internship Forum was a big success, and we encourage everyone to complete an internship before graduation.

At the meeting held on October 20 we had our annual Career Forum, where we have past graduates come and speak about the possible career choices for meteorologists. The first member of our panel was Brian Hughes. He is currently a staff meteorologist and satellite information coordinator for the Satellite Analysis Branch of NESDIS. The second panel member was Matt Alonso. Matt is currently working as meteorologist with Meso Inc. in New York. Another panel member was Dave Fitzgerald. After graduating from Millersville, he went on to get his masters from the University of Wyoming. He now works for Millersville as our METNET systems administrator. And our fourth panel member was Dr. Richard Clark who was kind enough to fill in for Les Still. Dr. Clark received his PhD from the University of Wyoming, and is now a Professor of Meteorology and Department Chairman for the Earth Science department at Millersville University.

The meeting began with each panel member talking about what they do, how they got to where they are now, and the like and dislikes of the careers. After the introductions, the forum was open to the students to ask questions to the panel members.

This meeting was extremely beneficial to those students who still have not decided what area of meteorology most interests them.---Courtney Hanna.


NORTH FLORIDA

General Meeting Minutes
October 28, 2004

President Chris Bennett called the meeting to order at 7:40 p.m. The following executive members were present: President: Chris Bennett, Vice -President: Geoff Wagner, Treasurer: Cerese Albers, Secretary: Robert Banks, and Past-President: Clark Evans. Approximately 20 members were present including the executive board. The meeting began with Chris opening the meeting with an overview.

Treasurer's Report
Treasurer Cerese Albers gave a report on the current financial status of the chapter and encouraged members to pay their dues as soon as possible and that only cash can be accepted for payment. Cerese encouraged membership in the chapter and outlined some of the incentives for joining. Dues are only $5.00 for student members and $10.00 for non-student members and are good for one year. Cerese also mentioned that the chapter helped fund the bowling social which offset the cost for it's members.

Chapter Committee Involvement
A need was expressed by President Bennett for the general membership to step up and help out in a committee or two in order to better the chapter and it's goals. Members were encouraged to talk with any of the officers after the meeting about the respective committees. He especially expressed a need for a few people in the membership committee, publicity committee, and a few more members for the Outreach group.

November - Potential Outreach Month
President Bennett announced that the chapter will be deeming November 2004, an outreach month where the chapter really gets out and lends a helping hand to the community. We will try to do this through more school outings, canned food drives, etc. He also mentioned that there would be more "themed" months to come in the next year to try and reach our goals while making the chapter fun.

Report from Science and Education Committee
Past-President Clark Evans gave a brief synopsis of what occurred at his last two committee meetings (one in early October and one last week. Godby High School was visited for a presentation in early-mid October and there are plans over the next couple months for more events. Some of the events lined up are a school science olympiad and disabled children tutoring. Since November is a themed month for outreach, Clark will be busy gathering events for the chapter to participate in such as the formation of a K-12 chapter with support from Florida High School.

October Social Event
Vice-President and Chair of the Programs Committee, Geoff Wagner, announced a day at the FSU Reservation social set for either Saturday, November 13 or Sunday, November 14 at the Seminole Rez. It will be an afternoon event featuring rock climbing, kayaking on the lake, barbecue grills, etc. There is no cost to anyone with a valid FSU id and it will be a fun afternoon for the chapter.

Other General Information Discussed
President Chris Bennett informed the membership again of the newly revamped chapter website at www.northflams.org and that all information including chapter minutes, etc. is posted to this source for easy viewing by everyone. Also, Chris announced that the local chapter will be trying in the next month or so to gather additional support for travel to the Annual AMS Conference in San Diego, CA. He did mention that paying your dues and being a national AMS member will better your chances for Department or AMS travel grants.

Guest Speaker
Vice-President Geoff Wagner announced our guest speaker for the night. He is morning meteorologist for Tallahassee station WTXL-27, Casanova Nurse. Casanova is a Tampa, FL native and got his bachelors degree in Geography from USF and a broadcast degree from Mississippi State before moving on to his career in broacast meteorology. Casanova talked about his life progress from childhood to weatherman in an interesting talk about the field he is in.

Next Meeting
TBA.

Adjournment
The meeting was adjourned at 8:45 PM.

The above minutes are a true and correct reflection of the October 28, 2004 meeting.---Chris Bennett, President. Submitted by: Robert Banks, Secretary.


OMAHA-OFFUTT

The Omaha-Offutt chapter of the AMS held its October meeting on October 12, 2004, at the Super Buffet restaurant in Bellevue. There were 39 members and guests present.

At 11:56 AM chapter President Jeremy Wesely called the business meeting to order.

Recording Secretary John Roth read the minutes from the September 2004 meeting. A motion to approve the minutes was made by John Eylander and seconded by Joe Hanser, and the minutes were accepted.

Bruce Telfeyan presented the treasurer's report, as Treasurer Karen Harder-Sittel was unable to attend. There were 8 new memberships paid since the last meeting. Bruce said he was available to take new memberships during and after the meeting.

John Eylander of the education committee updated the status of the committee's involvement with the Omaha Children's Museum. Members were helping to build exhibits, and they've had a conversation with the vice president of KMTV television, who offered assistance in the efforts. The national AMS has approved the committee to be a local scholarship review point for minority scholarships. There was a meeting coming up, and anyone interested was invited to attend.

Old business:
None.

New business:
Jeremy discussed reviving the monthly forecast contest, which suffered from low participation last year and was tabled the first two meetings of this year. To rekindle interest, he suggested contributing $5.00 to the cost of the meal for the winner at each meeting. Bruce Telfeyan motioned that the forecast contest be reinstated, and the chapter pay a $5.00 credit toward the meal of each month's winner. The motion was seconded by Joe Hanser, was voted on and passed.

Dr. John Zapotocny provided an update on the effort for Omaha to host the national AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. The national AMS has put Omaha third on its list, following one in Atlanta and one hosted by EUMETSAT, so the conference should be in Omaha in the spring of 2009.

Announcements:
The next chapter meeting is scheduled for Thursday, December 2, tentatively at the Greek Islands restaurant, with Greg Carbin from the Storm Prediction Center scheduled to speak.

Guest Speaker:
Colonel John Lanicci, commander of Air Force Weather Agency, spoke at the meeting. His presentation was titled "Environmental Security: The Next Strategic-level Challenge for Military Weather Operations". Col Lanicci began by describing the post-cold war "Transformation Era", defined by the use of new technologies in different ways to support a changing global mission, and how the concept of strategic weather support has to be redefined. He described a strategic planning model for the analysis of weather and climate vulnerability issues in strategic planning. The model begins with national-level policy as input, focusing on how weather can affect planning and execution. The next step is analysis and planning, which has three substeps: phenomenology, where weather considerations are analyzed as to their potential impacts on people and possible operations in the various areas of interest; technology, which focuses on improving the ability to assess and predict the effects from weather related phenomena; and force structure, which examines the current resources and determines how best to use them to maximize strengths and minimize vulnerabilities. The last phase is operations, where the resources and technology identified in the analysis are deployed. He presented examples of how weather considerations can affect strategic-level military decisions, how often specific military operations are due to effects of weather (mainly natural disasters), and how weather and climate phenomena, large and small scale in both space and time, can effectively determine the course of military operations and national policy.

With no further business, a motion to adjourn the meeting was made by Mark Conner and was seconded by John Eylander, and the meeting was adjourned at 1:12 PM.---John Roth.


OREGON

Oregon Chapter Winter Weather Meeting

On October 28th the Oregon chapter held its 12th annual "What Will the Winter be Like?" meeting at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) in Portland. Local and regional weather prognosticators assembled in OMSI's spacious auditorium to share with an audience of colleagues and the general public their insights into what kind of weather is in store for the Pacific Northwest this coming winter. Invited speakers included George Taylor, Oregon's state climatologist, Tyree Wilde, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Portland, Kyle Martin, a hydrologist for the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, Pete Parsons, a consulting meteorologist in Redmond, Oregon, and Chuck Wiese, a consulting meteorologist and pilot for Northwest Airlines.

KPTV Fox 12 meteorologist Mark Nelsen began the proceedings with a review of the 2003-2004 winter. Highlights included a modified arctic outbreak in late October, a brief sticking snow event on November 19th in Portland, and a New Year's Day snowstorm that transitioned into even colder temperatures with more snow and ice from January 5th though the 9th. For most of November and December, conditions were somewhat warmer and drier than normal. Except for the early cold snap, January came in warmer than normal with about average precipitation. February, March and April were generally warmer and drier that normal. Total snowfall for the winter was far above average, with the Portland Weather Service Forecasting Office measuring 17.3 inches.

A key element in nearly all the outlooks for this coming winter was identifying the current phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The National Weather Service's Wilde said that we've shifted into a weak El Nino, while the others felt the signal isn't strong enough and that we're still in a neutral condition. Martin noted that while sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are somewhat elevated, the temperature of subsurface waters are not higher than normal. Taylor added that recent data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology shows that warm surface temperatures are also subsiding. Here in the Pacific Northwest, El Ninos generally produce warmer and drier than normal winters, La Ninas tend to be colder and wetter. These correlations become weaker or disappear altogether when the phase is neutral.

Choosing analog years for indices such as the Multi-decadal phase, the Multivariate ENSO, the Southern Oscillation and Pacific-North America were also blended into many of the forecasts. Martin and Taylor also looked at possible effects that the 11-year solar cycle might have on our weather. Developed by Dr. Theodor Landscheidt, the Solar Cycle Model seems to indicate that Pacific Northwest winters may be warmer and drier during periods of maximum sunspot activity, cooler and wetter when sunspots are at a minimum. Presently the cycle is transitioning from a maximum in 2001 to the next minimum in about 2007.

While each of the weather-wizards had peered into the future to see what's in store for us this winter, not all of them came way with the same vision. Wilde thinks the winter will be a bit warmer and drier than normal. Taylor believes October through December will come in with normal temperatures, while January through March will be slightly on the warm side. It should be slightly wetter than normal for the entire period. Martin sees seasonable temperatures for the period November through March, except February which will be slightly above normal. Except for a dry November, the winter should see average precipitation levels. Parsons said temperatures for November will be somewhat cool, but go warmer than normal December through February. Typical precipitation levels are expected throughout the winter. Projecting far beyond this winter's weather, Weise foresees colder and wetter winters in the Northwest for the next 15 years.



Will there be any extreme weather events this season? Few believe the Willamette Valley will have as much snow and cold as last winter. Martin thinks the region might get a storm or two that could produce up to 3 inches of snow. For Parsons, the predictive indicators aren't clear enough to tell if there will be measurable snow in November or December, but January will either bring a lot of snow or none. Taylor says that if we get any extreme weather episodes this winter, they are likely to be strong wind or heavy rain events.



In an effort to help foster interest in the science of meteorology throughout the local community, the Oregon chapter has been partnering with OMSI since 1999 in staging the popular Winter Weather meeting. Both the local chapter and OMSI benefit from the attention generated by ample media coverage.---Ron Thorkildson.


PALMETTO

October 2004 Meeting Summary

The Palmetto Chapter of the AMS (PAMS) visited the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, North Carolina on Friday, October 29, 2004. The visit included three programs beginning with a tour of the NCDC facilities led by Greg Hammer, an NCDC meteorologist. Greg explained the mission and activities at NCDC, the world's largest climate and information center. The huge stacks of records, both paper and computer media were truly staggering, and Greg said the amount of data being stored is increasing exponentially each year. It is fortunate that many of the paper records are being converted to computer media that reduce the space needed by orders of magnitude. Greg explained that customers can access and download much of the data via the Internet now and that in 2003 customers downloaded 8 terabytes of data from NCDC.

The NCDC facilities tour was followed by lunch at Anntony's Caribbean Café, located at the historic Grove Arcade, the former site of NCDC about two blocks from the current NCDC building. After lunch the PAMS group walked back to NCDC to hear a presentation on Forensic Meteorology by Bill Haggard, a Forensic Meteorologist since 1976 and a past Director of NCDC. Mr. Haggard discussed and presented a two-tier slide show showing several forensic meteorology examples involving aircraft and ship accidents with unusual meteorological conditions that played a central role in litigation.

Following Mr. Haggard's presentation there was a final tour of the Air Force Combat Climatology Center (AFCCC). This tour began in the basement with Ms. Susan Tarbell, Cataloging Librarian of the Air Force Weather Technical Library. Ms. Tarbell showed the assets of the technical library including journals, books, and climate data for various parts of the world. She explained the mission of the library was to provide government decision-makers with the scientific and technical weather information they need on a timely basis. While some of the services and data are accessible only to government personnel, the library is open to the general public and some services are available on the Internet at http://www.afccc.af.mil. The PAMS group then reassembled in an AFCCC conference room to hear a series of briefings by Mr. Tom Kotz (Deputy to the Commander), Captain Manuel Folsom, Captain Ken Cloys and TSgt Ben Wretlind. After a welcome and opening comments by Mr. Kotz, Capt. Folsom addressed the overall mission and some of the various functions of the AFCCC. Captain Cloys then spoke in detail about the Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG) and Advanced Climate Modeling & Environmental Simulations (ACMES). ESG allows efficient retrieval of climatological data to meet specific needs especially of modelers/simulators, and ACMES is capable of creating climatological products for data sparse areas and simulating historical weather events on meso or finer scales. Finally, TSgt Ben Wretlind discussed recent improvements to the AFCCC website using GIS.---Allen Weber.


PURDUE UNIVERSITY

On Wednesday, 28 October 2004, the Purdue University Meteorological Association (PUMA) held a general meeting.

7:12 Meeting called to order by President Kim Klockow

-- Old business:
- T-shirts: The dartboard design was selected for the back, with the "Good, Better, Best" design for the front. The shirts will be dark gray and will be ordered soon.
- WESMA (high school club) meeting will be Tuesday. The topic of discussion will be storm chasing.
- Adopt-A-Highway cleanup will be Sunday (10/31) at 1 P.M. - The members voted to design a departmental t-shirt to sell as a fundraiser.
- Tutoring is available every other Tuesday evening.

New business: - none

Announcements:
- Josh Wurman will be giving the department seminar on Thurs (10/29) and will be speaking about the Doppler on Wheels.

At the end of the meeting, Vice President Kent Knopfmeier demonstrated the use of the WDDS software with Level II radar data.

7:45 Meeting adjourned.---Ben Cotton.


SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

Summary of 24 October 2004 SEACAMS Meeting

The second meeting of the Southeast Arizona Chapter of the AMS (SEACAMS) was held on 24 October 2004. The meeting was attended by about 17 members and guests near the National Weather Service Forecast Office on the University of Arizona campus. Our guest speaker was Erik Pytlak, the Science and Operations Officer with the National Weather Service in Tucson. He spoke about the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) which was headed up in Tucson this past summer. The 2004 NAME was practiced the summer prior to work out the details, the first time this type of approach was taken. NAME was aimed at improving warm season precipitation forecasts over North America and was the combined effort of an extended web of organizations. The initial findings of NAME showed just how unusual the 2004 monsoon was. The strong polar jet was displaced further south than normal which was very noticeable in a two month average of geopotential height anomalies. Three deviation negative height anomalies were present over portions of the Eastern United States and one to two deviation negative height anomalies were present over other parts of the United States. Overall, 2004 was much wetter than 2003 with some sites in Mexico reporting 150% of average rainfall. Tucson, however, was on the extremely dry side and ended up with only around 40% of monsoon season average rainfall. The 2004 inverted trough tracks were also pushed very far south compared to those of 2003. For more information on NAME please look at the following website: http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name/.

Our next meeting will be held on the 30th of November and will feature guest speaker Roger Pielke Sr., a visiting professor from Colorado State University. His topic of discussion will be "Expanding the Concept of Human Caused Climate Change."---Dawn Fishler.


TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY

Minutes from the Tuesday, October, 5th 2004 meeting at Texas A&M Universtiy.

President Zachary Glenn welcomed the group to our October meeting.

Vice President Justin Horne recapped the Adopt-A-Beach trip and spoke about the KXAS trip to Dallas.

Secretary Roger Gass gave a recap on the September meeting.

Treasure Brady Taylor spoke about dues, and t-shirt and sticker sales.

Social Chair Keri Turner spoke about Friday Night Spikes, intramurals, and the Christmas party for December.

Some general business was talked about as well. AMS membership, AMS conference, and Chemistry Open House were talked about. Also, information on new t-shirts were given to the members.

Our very own Courtney Schumacher spoke on tropical systems and her studies on the phenomenon.

After the great talk from Courtney, the members were release for pizza and social time.---Roger Gass.


TWIN CITIES

The October 2004 meeting of the Twin Cities AMS chapter was held on October 19, 2004 at St. Cloud State University. The meeting was held in conjunction with the St. Cloud chapter of the National Weather Association.

A call for membership committee members was made.

Student Kristin George spoke about microbial flus from organic and mineral soil. This was from her recent research work at the University of Michigan Biological Station . She was trying to answer some hypotheses about soil respiration being a major source of carbon flux. While some results were noted, such that older forests had less quality carbon and less carbon, Kristin was not able to answer her all questions in the short time she was at the station, her research did offer future areas of investigation.

The other speaker of the evening was student Jeff Buck. He discussed his mesoscale analysis of the June 28, 2002, severe weather outbreak of Southern Minnesota. His (and his group's) goal was to see mesoscale features using an analysis similar to that used by Fujita. Using Fujita's methodology, he was able to see the expected features.

After the presentations, the professors and students talked with the Twin Cities chapter members about their department, such as where its students come from (mostly Minnesota) and where they go after they graduate (mostly private weather companies), and what their department has to offer someone looking for a career in meteorology (much).---Chris Bovitz.


UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS

KU's last chapter meeting was October 7th.

We discussed fundraising ideas, and logo ideas to put on items such as umbrellas, ice scrappers, etc..

We also discussed ideas for a club t-shirt, social activities and what to put in our display cases in Lindley Hall.

Interesting fact: there are currently 85 atmo majors at KU.


The University of Kansas Student Chapter of AMS had its last meeting October 20th.

Meeting Minutes:
  1. We discussed dues for being a member of KUAMS. The dues are $10 and can be given to an officer or Karen Ward in the Geography office.

  2. Any other t-shirt ideas are welcome and can be emailed to Darin Brunin (President) or given to any officer. We will be putting ideas up in the weather lab for everyone to see, and we will be deciding soon on what the t-shirt will look like.

  3. We are still looking for more fundraising ideas. And we would like to start fundraising as soon as possible.

  4. We are scheduling a speaker with in the next couple of weeks from the NWS to talk about the NWS and the business he owns.

  5. Deadline to turn in entries for the First Snowfall contest is over. And now we will just have to wait and see who the winner is.

  6. We took pictures of those who were at the meeting for our departmental picture gallery. We will also be doing this at the next meeting or if you are unable to attend and would like to be in the picture gallery let an officer know so arrangements can be made outside of an AMS meeting.

  7. Be watching for an e-mail when the next KUAMS meeting will be and when the speaker from the NWS will be coming.---Ashley VanAsdale.



UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA - LINCOLN

Second Meeting of the Semester
October 5th, 2004
Meeting started at 5:00p.m.

The meeting started off with our president taking the floor. Our constitution is ready to go, and we will vote on it in the next meeting as well as send it in to the National AMS for approval. The president then asked all member to email him T-shirt ideas, as we would like to have a T-shirt done before Christmas break. The next announcement was for a presentation. 2 of our students did research on the Grand Island, Ne, tornadoes and gave a presentation at a conference in Goodland, KS.

Our vice president took the floor next. We are trying to make a calander, and the vice president is essentially in charge of it. All members were allowed to send 2 photos to his email, and at a later date, whoever is available will pick out pictures for the calander. We also plan to make a chapter poster, and have it set up at the National AMS meeting in San Diego this January.

Then our treasurer took to the floor to speak on dues, money spent for our fall picnic, and a possible fundraiser selling hockey tickets. Our Advisor, Dr. Ken Dewey then spoke for a few minutes. He invited our group to the Omaha AMS meeting where Greg Carbon was comming to speak. He also spoke to the new members on getting to know their professors, doing interships, and becomming involed.

Last on the night was our guest speaker, Brian Smith, the WCM at the Omaha-Valley National Weather Service office. He gave a presentation on this years tornadoes in the region, and focused on the Hallam, NE tornado event. He also spoke on some of his damage surveys and showed some areal views of the Hallam tornado event. This concludes our second meeting of the semester.---Kelly D. Faltin.


UNIVERSITY OF UTAH

Meeting Minutes
Tuesday, October 5, 2004
3:45 P.M. INSCC 490

*Dues of $5 are due today so please take care of that with Scott Sellars ASAP if you haven't already done so.

*Today is also the last day to submit entries for the 1st snowfall contest. Scott will send out a list of everyones guess shortly. Good luck to all who entered.

*Educational outreach will be starting soon. Keep an eye on the student AMS website or contact Erik Crosman to get the fall schedule.

*Ideas were submitted and a vote was made for this year's t-shirt design. Dan Zumpfe's "Forecasting the greatest snow on earth" design took the vote. The design will be finalized and we should be able to have the t-shirts ready by our next meeting.

*Upcoming events:
-Saturday, Oct. 16 -- UofU Football Game vs. North Carolina (8:00pm)
-Friday, Oct. 29 -- Bowling (time TBA)
-Thursday, Nov. 11 -- Our next meeting
-Friday, Nov. 12 -- Ice Skating at the Olympic oval---Maura Hahnenberger.


 



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