Chapter News
November 2005

ANCHORAGE

AMS Minutes November 29th, 2005

MEMORANDUM FOR: Anchorage AMS Members and Affiliates

FROM: Jim Peronto, VP Anchorage Chapter

SUBJECT: Minutes, Anchorage AMS Chapter Meeting, November 29th, 2005

Call Meeting to Order: The meeting was called to order by Jim Peronto, Vice-President, at 11:35 a.m. The meeting was held on Elmendorf Air Force Base at the Weather Operations 11th OWS in Anchorage. Introductions were given by all attendees.

Treasurer's Report: Not Available

Old/New Business:
Mike Grueber won the first snowfall contest question with an entry of 2.0" on November 2nd. The actual date and amount was 1.4" on October 30th. Mike will be presented with a NOAA Weather Radio purchased by the chapter with chapter money.

The annual Christmas dinner was discussed. Jim presented three options to the members, which were the Glacier Brewhouse on the 19th at 6pm, Fly-By-Night Club on the 13th; 14th, or 15th at 8pm; or the Peppermill on the 13th or 14th at 6pm. One member suggested that the earlier the date, the better. Another member said that a person should expect to spend about $40 regardless of where we go. Jim said he would talk with Aimee Fish about the options again. It was decided that the executive committee will make the final decision on when and where to have the dinner. Some of the members attended previous dinners and said that it was a fun occasion. Toys 4 Tots was considered to be a good idea again at this year dinner. One member suggested we find out when the deadline is for delivering gifts into Toys 4 Tots, which could have an impact on when we have our dinner.

The Polar Plunge is coming up on Saturday, January 21st and it was decided by the members that it would be advantageous for the chapter to participate in some way with the event. Several members showed interest in the event, with one member actually planning to plunge. Jim said that the executive committee would look into this more and report back to everyone via email.

The Donations Committee was not present at the meeting. However, Jim mentioned that he has had contact with both Jackie Purcell and Heidi Strader about sending out letters to local businesses for donations to the chapter. Heidi Strader is currently working on a letter to the Alyeska Resort.

The Scholarship Committee was not present at the meeting. Ray Miller is in charge of this committee and will be contacted by the executive committee regarding the advertisement of the 2006 Minority Scholarship. The chapter has been the regional hub for over 5 years but has had very few entries for the scholarship. One member suggested that we advertise via online scholarship websites as well as TV, newspapers, and letters to high schools.

Haibo Liu, from the AEFF, said he would be at the national AMS meeting in Atlanta. He wanted to know if the chapter would like him to hang the chapter poster in the designated area for the local chapters. Jim said that would be great. Jim also asked him if he could attend the local chapter breakfast as our chapter representative. He said he would. The executive committee needs to get more information to him regarding these things. Jim mentioned that in the past, the poster has been mailed down to the meeting directly to our representative's hotel room. The chapter could probably do this again. The chapter abstract also needs to be sent into national soon.

The next meeting will be in January sometime. Heidi Strader will speak about air quality. Notice for the meeting will be sent out as soon as it is available.

Main Event:

Rebecca Bissette, 1 Lt. Weather Operations 11th OWS at Elmendorf AFB, showed a short video on weather operations in the Air Force and then conducted a tour of the 11th OWS forecast area. Rebecca explained how the 11th OWS was split up into areas of responsibility that support Air Force operations in Alaska. Certain desks had specific responsibilities, such as forecasting for the Anchorage area. Another desk was set up for the lead forecaster, who was to oversee all the other forecasters in the office. One forecaster's responsibility was to do quality control on all the products published by the other forecasters in the office.

Rebecca also detailed how someone entering the Air Force could get into weather operations. She explained that they could become a weather operations person as an officer or as an enlisted member. The majority of the people enlist in weather operations. As an officer, a person is required to have a degree in meteorology and complete 3 months of training out of state that familiarizes them on military software used for forecasting. As an enlisted member, a person is required to take a more intensive training curriculum, which typically lasts about 9 months. Rebecca said that as an enlisted member, a wide range of experiences are available with extensive travel around the world.

Adjournment:
The meeting was adjourned by Jim Peronto at 12 p.m. for tour.---James Peronto.



ARKANSAS

November 3, 2005

The second Chapter meeting of the fall season was held on November 3rd. The meeting convened at 700 PM at the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock with 17 members and guests present.

Brian Smith, A Journeyman Forecaster and Digital Services Focal Point with the National Weather Service in North Little Rock gave a presentation entitled "Digital Services: What the National Weather Service Has to Offer". In his presentation, he covered the voluminous amounts of forecast information that the NWS produces thanks to the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) and the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE). Information covered included new, high resolution tabular and digital products, as well as graphical forecasts, and enhancements to the standard suite of text forecast products. He also provided a hands-on demonstration of the GFE and its capabilities, and answered questions from several media partners related to forecast methodologies.

During and after the presentation, the group participated in a question and answer session. The meeting was adjourned at 830 PM.---Newton Skiles.



ASHEVILLE

Thursday, November 17, 2005

The Asheville Chapter of the American Meteorological Society held its third meeting for 2005-2006 in Laurel Forum, Karpen Hall, University of North Carolina at Asheville (UNCA), at 7:00 pm on Thursday, November 17, 2005. Fifteen people attended the meeting.

New Business

There is going to be a snow forecasting contest starting right away. Susan Tarbell will email the rules of the contest to all members. Submission of the vote is due November 30th, and only AMS Asheville Chapter members can vote. The main question will be "On what date will the first measurable snowfall (1 inch or more) happen at the Asheville Airport starting from December 1st on??" In case of a tie, what amount will be measured?

Guest Speaker

Vice President Mike Cuevas introduced the speaker for the evening, Dr. Chris Hennon. Dr. Hennon recently left the National Hurricane Center and is now a Professor at the University of North Carolina at Asheville, in the Atmospheric Sciences Department. His topic was "The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season in 45 Minutes."

There were many seasonal forecasts given before the hurricane started. These forecasts were created from a "new" technique developed over the last couple of years called the "Tropical Meteorology Project." The old technique stopped working after 1994. The new technique is derived from reanalysis data, such as El Nino indicators, sea level pressure anomalies, and sea surface temperature anomalies.


Many warning signs occurred before the season officially began: multi-decadal signals in the atmosphere (usually a 20-30 year cycle), Atlantic sea surface temperatures were above average, and the most crucial-the El Nino condition. There was a neutral condition of El Nino, so it was not a factor in lessening the hurricane season. Over all, the Tropical Meteorology Project did a lousy job of forecasting the 2005 season.

Season as of November 17, 2005
27 Tropical depressions
23 Named storms
13 Hurricanes
7 Major hurricanes, cat 3 or above
3 Category 5 hurricanes

Dr. Hennon spoke about 4 hurricanes: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. The first was Hurricane Dennis that occurred July 5-11, 2005. It was a category 4 at peak intensity with 145 mph winds. It was the earliest that 4 named storms formed in the Atlantic. Ten people were killed in Cuba and Haiti.

The next big hurricane was Hurricane Katrina, one of the most devastating storms in our history. On August 25, Katrina approached the South Florida coast as a tropical storm. Rainfall estimates of 20 inches or more were forecast for South Florida. There was a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico to help make Katrina "bigger and badder." The forecasting of Hurricane Katrina was about to begin. The first eye wall replacement cycle occurred early on August 27th. Overall, this was not a big rain event as Katrina moved so fast. Eventually the eye wall was 20 nautical miles wide, creating the perfect "eye." On August 28th, Hurricane Katrina is a Cat 5 with 175 mph sustained winds. Fortunately, Cat 5 hurricanes can not keep up their strength for very long so Katrina was downgraded to a Cat 4. On August 29th, Hurricane Katrina was downgraded to a Cat 3 because of the intrusion of drier air.

Hurricane Katrina totals:
1302 killed (2nd most for United States)
$70-$130 billion damage
Over 1 million people displaced

Hurricane Rita (September 16-20) was the 4th most intensive in the Atlantic area up until that time. No real models can forecast for rapidly forming hurricanes, so did not forecast well for Rita. We are not sampling the atmosphere enough. There were 6 direct deaths attributed to Hurricane Rita. Plus the hurricane reopened some levy breaches in New Orleans.

Hurricane Wilma set all the records for tropical cyclones ever recorded. It later became a Cat 3 hurricane with 30-40 nautical miles across. There were at least 47 deaths attributed to Hurricane Wilma.

Historical Perspectives
Why was the 2005 season so hyper-active? This will be looked at for sure by many meteorologists.
Why were so many tropical cyclogensis events in the Northern Caribbean-not a usual thing?
Why did many storms, including Katrina, intensify so rapidly?
Why were there only a couple of storms that formed in the Eastern Atlantic?
What is in store for 2006?---Susan A. Tarbell.



BLACK HILLS

November 17, 2005 Meeting Summary

Dr. Andrew Detwiler gave a presentation summarizing the programs and current activities of South Dakota School of Mines and Technology's (SDSMT) Institute of Atmospheric Sciences (IAS).

The Institute's mission is summarized as follows: SDSM&T's IAS has an impressive list of past accomplishments in cloud physics and weather radar research. Through continuous development, early IAS numerical models of cloud physics and convective storms have become sophisticated tools for studying microphysical cloud processes, storm electrification, lightning, and atmospheric chemistry. A coupled model of the entire hydrologic cycle with time scales from storm event to annual is currently underway.

The IAS T-28 storm penetrating aircraft has served time in many productive field projects, carrying instruments to probe storms to determine updrafts/downdrafts, types of rain, hail and ice, and chemistry. The old T-28 has been grounded, but funding for a newer aircraft for future storm penetration data collection is being pursued.

The faculty is also involved in the study of lake effect snowstorms, severe convective wind storms, a NATO project using MM5 to provide high resolution local scale winds based on assimilation of very limited local observations, fire weather processes and behavior, and the hydrology of the post fire environment. The use of remote sensing for monitoring the state of fuels and soil moisture is also a topic of investigation.

The Biogeochemistry Core Facility was established on the SDSMT campus. This facility is designed to enhance the technical facilities to allow SDSMT faculty in the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Departments of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Geology and Geological Engineering, and Chemistry, to perform cutting-edge ecological and environmental research, investigate connections across ecosystems, and provide opportunities to train and educate undergraduates and graduate students in terrestrial and aquatic biogeochemistry, ecology, and environmental sciences.

Considering the size of the school, the IAS has an impressive array of computation capabilities including a 17 node (34 processor) dual-Athlon computational cluster. Various forms of interactive, immersive visualization are being used to teach and understand numerical model results.

In the proposal stage is a project which, if funded, will investigate the use of fluorescing nanoparticles to aid in the direct observation of microscale processes that are involved in the formation of cloud particles. Also proposed is the development of a vertical shaft cloud laboratory in the Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory which is being considered by the National Science Foundation for construction either in the former Homestake Mine in Lead, South Dakota, or the Henderson Mine in Colorado.

The IAS also works with tribal schools and colleges to encourage their students to pursue scientific curricula, and has recently become involved in the Atmospheric Health Center with consortium of several Black Hills institutes and groups, spanning health, policy, and environmental interests.---David Carpenter.



CENTRAL MICHIGAN UNIVERSITY

November 1, 2005

Attendance: (30 people)

Meeting In Session: 8:58 pm

President's Report Vice President's Report (Done by the President) Treasurer's Report Secretary's Report Open Floor Adopt-A-Family Meeting Adjourned: 9:55pm


November 8, 2005

Attendance: (30 people)

Meeting In Session: 9:02 pm

Current Weather Dicussion President's Report Vice President's Report (Done by the President) Treasurer's Report Secretary's Report SGA's Report Open Floor Adopt-A-Family Meeting Adjourned: 9:32pm


November 15, 2005

Attendance: (32people)

Meeting In Session: 9:04 pm

President's Report Vice President's Report Treasurer's Report Secretary's Report SGA's Report Open Floor Adopt-A-Family
  • Your $10.00 is due on Tuesday, November 29th and make checks out to Cassie Hoch please. Meeting Adjourned: 9:28pm


    November 22, 2005

    Attendance: (34 people)

    Meeting In Session: 9:08 pm

    President's Report Vice President's Report (Filled in by President Jonathon Merrick) Treasurer's Report Secretary's Report SGA's Report Nominations President (Jonathon Merrick) Vice President (Jonathon Merrick filled in for Derek VanDam) Treasurer (Chris Snider) Secretary (Jennifer Green) Student Government Association Representative (SGA Rep.) (Shannon Matias) Open Floor Adopt-A-Family Meeting Adjourned: 9:28pm---Jennifer Green.



    CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

    The November meeting of the Central North Carolina Chapter of the AMS was held on Thursday, November 17, 2005 at Jordan Hall at NC State University. President Michael Abraczinskas, NC Division of Air Quality, called the meeting to order at 7:35 p.m. with approximately 31 members and guest in attendance. The meeting started with a rousing debate on the recently classification of central North Carolina as moderate drought. The State Climate Office provided Michael with departures from normal for many of the sites through the piedmont, which varied from 8 inches below normal (Chapel Hill) to 15 inches below normal (Louisburg, NC). Discussion turned to lake levels, which reservoirs were used as part of the water supply, and whether this in part was a problem of not having enough water processing plants to meet the demand of the growing population in the region.

    Vice President Jim Paumier, meteorologist with MACTEC, introduced the night's speaker Dr. William Hunt, Visiting Senior Scientist, Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University. Dr. Hunt presented a brief talk on the Environmental Statistics program at NC State, and then student presented 3 projects currently being explored as part of the program.

    The Environmental Statistics program is a cooperative program with Spellman College to allow student to work with real world data on a real world problem prior to graduation.

    Industry and government speed a lot of money on collecting data, but usually have very little time to analyze it. Student would complain in exit interview that they were unsure of what to do after they graduation, and how to apply the statistic they had learned. Through the program, industry and government clients can have students make a fresh, and unbiased analysis of the data at no cost. The student gain real world experience with data, and a chance to further develop written and oral communication skills with a client.

    Clients in the program are varied. They include state government offices, in North Carolina and other states, OAQPS at EPA, regional organizations, and even Environment Canada. Since its inception in 1999, students in the course have presented at over 30 conferences, and have won over $30,000 dollars in prizes for their research. For more information, please see course website: http://www.stat.ncsu.edu/~st495_info/index.php

    Three sets of students then presented their work in the class. First Ashley Queen and John White presented a project for NC Department of Environment and Natural Resources (NCDENR) looking at the PM2.5 nonattainment problem in the state. The student examined the data from daily and hourly particulate matter monitoring sites; and meteorological sites to determine if the PM2.5 nonattainment problem was due to regional or local affects. They further studied the pattern of PM2.5 with wind direction, diurnal trends, and trends with day of the week.

    Katina Gracien then presented her work, which is a comparison of AirNOW and AQS particulate matter databases for the Office of Air Quality and Planning Standards (OAQPS) at EPA. The goal is to develop a quality assurance procedure for the AirNOW data, and to correlate stations with poor reporting history with more consistent station to fill data voids in the real-time data and thereby help alert the public to poor air quality in the areas with poor data reporting.

    The final student, Brian Hare is working on a project for RTP Environmental to define a better emissions standard. The project involves trying to match the hourly emissions from point sources to know statistical distributions. Brian has explored the use of gamma distributions, lognormal distributions, and even kernel distribution to match stack output. He is currently in the process of fitting the output from several point sources to distributions, and has found that each source can have a different distribution.

    Overall the program is a win-win situation for all involved: The students get real world experience and have a better sense of "what to do with their degree". The agencies get free work, often from a fresh perspective, and the University has increased the number of student interested in graduate work.

    Dr. Hunt ended the presentation at 8:47, and after questions, the meeting was adjourned at 9:05 p.m.---Bebhinn A. Do.



    CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

    The November meeting of the Central Oklahoma Chapter of the AMS/NWA was held Thursday, November 10, 2005 in the NSSL seminar room. President Dave Jorgensen called the meeting to order at 730pm. About 20 members and guests attended the meeting.

    Secretary Sarah Corfidi introduced the night's speaker, COCAMS/NWA president Dave Jorgensen. Dave gave a fascinating talk about his participation as aircraft chief scientist in the RAINEX project. RAINEX stands for Rain Band Experiment, and the project investigated the mechanisms of hurricane intensification using airborne Doppler radar data collected by the two NOAA P-3 aircraft and the Naval Research Labs (NRL) P-3 which carried the NCAR ELDORA radar into Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.


    Dave Jorgensen, on board the NOAA aircraft in Katrina

    This was a NSF sponsored project with 3 main goals: to understand how hurricanes rapidly deepen, to understand how rainbands and eyewalls interact, and to learn how to model the eyewall replacement cycle. Dave noted how Hurricane Allen (1980) underwent several eyewall replacement cycles, which is common with strong hurricanes.

    The radar scanning techniques relied on dual Doppler technology, and one of the main challenges was positioning the aircraft in optimum locations for collecting data. The NRL plane was flying at 10000 feet and the NOAA P-3 planes were at 8000 feet. In addition, the NOAA P-3 planes were also being used operationally by the National Hurricane Center, to gather real time data. Coordination between the two planes was essential, and the use of chat rooms faciliatated real time communication.

    One especially interesting point that Dave shared was that the geometric center of a hurricane eye as observed on radar is not always the true center of lowest pressure. Dave showed several animations of radar and satellite images, and noted where the aircraft were located relative to the eye of the hurricanes.

    For more information, and to view his powerpoint slideshow, please see: http://cocams.nwc.ou.edu/05nov10_present/index.html---Sarah Corfidi.



    DELAWARE/PHILADELPHIA

    It has been a busy November for the Delaware-Philadelphia Area Chapter. In Early November, Vice President Dean D Davison, Attended The Pennsylvania Geological Society / SW PA AMS/ NWA meeting . The topic of seabrezze interaction with severe thunderstorms causing Tornadoes was the topic, as Dean described how the sea breeze had caused the New Lisbon, NJ Tornado, Rated a very strong F 1 by the NWS MT Holly NJ. Data sets from weather observation stations as well as official NWS reporting stations backs his theory up. More research is being conducted by Dean D Davison.

    The Bigger of the 2 events was The 1st Annual Delaware- Philadelphia Area Chapter Hurricane Symposium at the Burlington County Emergency Services Building in Westhampton NJ on the 16th of November,2005. Severe Weather put a small damper on the turnout of over 40 people , over half being the public wanting to hear about Hurricanes the Effects NJ could suffer an how the Media helps pass the word. Presenters Were Gary Szatkowski Meteorologist in Charge, MT Holly NJ " The Overview of The historic 2005 hurricane season, Jim Eberwine, Hurricane and Tropical Focal Point NWS, MT Holly NJ, and NBC 10 Chief Meteorologist Glenn " Hurricane" Schwartz.

    The Evening started with NWS Gary Szatkowski(MIC) NWS MT HOLLY. Gary talked about the decades cycle , el nino and la nina and the effects on the hurricane season this year. With some in depth information on Katrina, Wilma, Rita.Over 20 questions were asked to Mr Szatkowski, all answered with in depth analysis.

    Second of Was Chief Meteorologist Glenn " Hurricane" Schwartz from NBC affiliate ch 10.co author of he Philadelphia Area Weather Book. Glenn Talked about Media impacts on the public during hurricanes and how he was the First Hurricane Chaser for the Weather Channel, his job at the NHC and now as a media forecaster. Glenn is the first one to get the AMS certified seal in the Delaware Valley and are chapter congratulated him on that. Questions from the public and other Media forecasters in the Delaware Valley branched off how the Media is a great effect on the people and saved hundreds in the Katrina disaster,along with the NWS personel. Glenn said " Media has to have a great connection with the NWS to relay the needed info to the Public.

    Last but not least was Jim Eberwine, Local Hurricane Expert from the NWS. Jim talked about how urbanization is a bad effect on what might happen if NJ gets hit by a cat 3 hurricane. Atlantic City to Cape May Would look like Gulf Shores AL and north of LBI would look like Katrina in New Orleans. The building codes are much lower in NJ then the Gulf coast and more people are resonating in the Jersey Shore.This is a recipe for disaster.

    We would like to thank Jim Eberwine, Gary Szatkowski, and Glenn Schwartz for there presentations and the Executive committee of John D Moore(president) , Dean D Davison(vice president), Tracy Deliberty(treasurer) Rebecca Schremp( Secretary), Lou Ruh(Publicity), David Legates(webmaster) and the help of the NWS MT HOLLY, Media FOX 29 David Aldrich, Melissa Sander and the public for this great event.---Dean D Davison.



    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

    The DC Chapter of the AMS met 10 November 2005 at the Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office (WFO), Sterling VA. Following a light dinner and a brief business meeting, Meteorologist-in-Charge Jim Lee led chapter guests and members to a briefing and tour of the WFO.

    The Baltimore/Washington WFO provides forecast and warning (public, marine, aviation, fire weather, river) services for 13 counties in Maryland, 8 counties in northern Virginia, 11 independent cities, and the eastern West Virginia panhandle, plus the District of Columbia, as highlighted in Figure 1. It also provides aviation weather services to Washington National, Washington Dulles International, Baltimore-Washington International, Martin State, Charlottesville-Albemarle, and Shepherd Field/Eastern West Virginia Regional (Martinsburg) airports, and marine services on the Tidal Potomac, and the Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point. In addition, the WFO's local service area includes the nation's capital-- Washington, D.C. -- and its users include decision-makers at the Metropolitan Washington Area Council of Government and in the Federal Government, including the White House, Homeland Security, Congressional staffers, and the Office of Personnel Management. The Baltimore/Washington WFO also has Hydrologic responsibility for the over 16000 square miles and 30 forecast points of the Potomac, Shenandoah and Rappahannock River Basins, depicted in figure 2. Altogether, the WFO serves about 8.5 million people.





    The Baltimore/Washington WFO relies on the key partnerships with Baltimore and Washington metropolitan area emergency managers and other government agencies, broadcast and print media, amateur radio operators, SkyWarn spotters, and Cooperative Observers. SkyWarn is a NWS program of trained volunteer severe weather spotters. SkyWarn volunteers support their local community and government by providing the NWS with timely and accurate severe weather reports. These reports, when integrated with modern NWS technology, are used to inform communities of the proper actions to take as severe weather threatens. The key focus of the Skywarn program is to save lives and property through the use of the observations and reports of trained volunteers. The NWS Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), formally created in 1890 under the Organic Act, is made up of more than 11,000 volunteers who take observations on farms, in urban and suburban areas, National Parks, seashores, and mountaintops all 365 days of the year.

    To perform their mission 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, the WFO has a 25 member staff: For more information on the NWS Baltimore/Washington WFO, visit their homepage: http://weather.gov/washington.---Lauraleen O'Connor.



    HOUSTON

    Oceanography "Meets" Meteorology

    Speaker: Dr. Robert Stewart - Texas A&M University (Dept. of Oceanography)

    Minutes from the November 16th, 2005 Houston AMS Chapter meeting:

    Dr. Bob Stewart gave us a very interesting lecture in Houston last month on the idea of the "Earth System". This "Earth System" concept involves the interaction of both the atmosphere and oceans with numerous federal and privately-funded agencies efficiently working together to further the understanding of this very dynamic model. Dr. Stewart, an Oceanographer at Texas A&M, attacked this argument of 'what drives what', the atmosphere driving the ocean or vice versa, and as any oceanographer would agree….he believes the ocean drives the atmosphere. His ideology of the why the oceans are the main driver is founded in the fact that the global seas absorb the greatest percentage of the sun's radiational energy. He discussed the carbon cycle and stated a most interesting fact; that the oceans contain 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere!

    Dr. Stewart introduced biology into his lecture; a nice change-of-pace for us meteorologists. He immediately grabbed our attention with the statement that there are approximately 10**30 power (nonillion) viruses residing in earth's oceans! He also talked about the ocean's nitrogen budget which is greatly affected by nitrogen's absorption in phytoplankton (microscopic sea life) & its significant impact on the global energy budget. The global climate change issue was also discussed with oceans playing a huge role in the distribution of long (terrestrial) & short (solar) wave energy, cloud cover, and temperature advection within this Ocean-Atmosphere System. Upon looking back at the climate records, North America should be entering a cooling phase, or the beginning of a mini-Ice Age. Why, then, is the average global temperature(s) increasing (oceans warmed up ~0.8 degrees °C in the last century)? The answer, Dr. Stewart believes, lies in the oceans. A debate that will continue……

    Dr. Stewart closed his talk by going over the many global research efforts being conducted to better understand our oceans. He talked about the Total Global Observing System where elements such as sea surface temperature, sea heights, surface vector winds, sea ice, and ocean color were being analyzed on various time scales. Furthermore, Dr. Stewart mentioned such on-going NOAA and Naval Research projects as the ARGOS Drifter Operation (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dac/gdp_doc.html) & the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (http://www.usgodae.org/). The U.S. Navy produces many oceanographic forecasts such as surf/wave forecasts, eddy locations (for offshore drilling interests), ice margins, storm surges, and tsunami warnings. Most of these forecasts can be easily obtained off the internet with most oceanographic data being accessible in "near" real time. Dr. Stewart closed with mention of his own website geared to help science students in their studies. It is aptly called "Ask Dr. Bob". Anyone who has an earth science-related question can type it in here at: http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/home/ask_dr_bob.htm---Patrick Blood.



    IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

    Minutes for November 30, 2005
    http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams

    National AMS Membership
    Good job to everybody who has signed up to become National AMS members. Remember to renew your membership, since December is upon us. You can renew online (www.ametsoc.org) or by sending in your paper renewal notice.

    Cy's Eyes
    If you've never given Cy's Eyes a try, consider it! We have the show every Monday and Wednesday at 6:30 p.m. at the Communications Building. Even if you don't plan to go into broadcasting, this is a fun activity and there are plenty of behind-the-scenes positions! The show is done for the semester, but keep an eye to your email for notices on when we start again.

    NCWFC
    Apologies for the slow updates and lack of forecast discussions. Once the semester is over, we'll get things back rolling. ISU is cumulatively 18th; Top 5 are 9th. Remember to keep forecasting on time. Congrats to Justin Gehrts and Dave Flory for winning Williston, ND and Elkins, WV, respectively.

    Social Chair
    Not much going on the rest of the semester.

    Academic Chair
    Finals week is almost here! Review sessions are coming up. Jon will be having a Stat session, Kaj will have 222, Chris Maiers will do 221, and Liz and Elise will be doing a 227X review. If you want help reviewing and studying, just email Chris (biff016 [at] iastate [dot] edu)!

    Treasurer Update
    Our balance as of November 1, 2005 is $1528.65, but there are still a few things that need to come out, such as pizza at the meeting and the Hickory Park dinner. Our final balance should be around $1200-$1300. Historian
    No book review this month. However, if you have any AMS-related pictures, email Geoff (grgforce [at] iastate [dot] edu). Also, Geoff would like to start a meteorology board game. If you have any ideas, let him know!

    AMS Annual Meeting
    We're continuing to work on acquiring additional funding. If you haven't yet booked a flight, please talk to Elise (elisevj [at] iastate [dot] edu).

    Spring Semester Social Chair
    Liz will be leaving us in the spring to study abroad in Australia. Colin, our sophomore chair works with the social chair, so the Cabinet appointed Colin take over the Social Chair position.

    VEISHEA
    VEISHEA is a student-run festival in the spring. Our chapter participates in Cy's Big Top, which is a festival mainly with children's games. If you'd like to help out with planning, let Justin (jgehrts [at] iastate [dot] edu) know. We'll ask for volunteers as April approaches.

    Spring Break Trip
    If you have any ideas on where we want to go, let Liz (edw [at] iastate [dot] edu) know. The current thinking is Boulder, Colorado.

    Extra Apparel
    We have a few extra shirts for sale ($10-$15, depending on the shirt). See Elise if you'd like to buy one.

    Next Semester Activities
    We'd like to reschedule the DMX NWS trip (canceled due to snow). Also, we'd like to see the National River Forecast Center, science museum, and Northwest flight dispatch and weather office. Something to do here at ISU would be a board game night. If you have more ideas for social events, email Liz or Colin (orasky [at] iastate [dot] edu).

    Edwards Elementary Science Night
    This the first of potentially several science nights at various schools. We usually put up our tornado machine, posters, and brochures to promote weather information and safety.

    Senior Thesis Day
    Senior theses will be presented this Monday in the conference room! A schedule is posted outside the Map Room. The first presentation is at 8:20 a.m. Some of your meteorology classes are canceled, so please attend during those times! You will have to present a thesis your senior year, so this is a great chance to see what goes on.

    Next meeting Thursday, January 12 in Agron 3128 at 7:30 p.m.

    If you have any suggestions, please put them in the AMS mailbox in the office next to the Map Room.

    Have a safe, happy break ... and wish for lots of snow!---Justin Gehrts.



    LYNDON STATE COLLEGE

    GBM: 11-16-05
    Start time: 7:02PM

    Sean
    o We won the Student Chapter of the Year Award from the National AMS
    - Service to the community
    - Running the storm conference
    - Thanks to Josh, Steve, and Brian who aren't here tonight
    o Storm Conference
    - We have finally gotten speakers for the conference
    - Kerry Emanual from MIT will be the banquet speaker
    - Kevin Klosel from OU will be the icebreaker speaker
    - There will be a committee meeting on Monday, November 28 at 7pm in the Met Lab
    o Internship night when well with good attendance and great speakers especially from Brandon Wholey

    Andrew
    o Forecast Contest
    - As a team we are 29 out of 41 teams after 4 contest periods - We are beating Plymouth
    - John Mioduszewski is leading our team and is in 155th place overall after the 4 forecast periods
    o Check the website for updates and upcoming events

    Ryan
    o Football tournament was a great success
    - Chris Ransford's team won - Heather Lichwala wins the photo of the month for her photo of the event
    o First Inch Contest unfortunately ended a little too early
    - Rich Malawaco and Josh Kearns both won $17 each
    o Talent Show was also a great success with 191 in attendance
    o Winter ball is set for Saturday, January 28th in the Bole gym
    - We already have hired a DJ - Looking for someone to do the photos that isn't too expensive
    o Next GBM will be December 7 same time and place
    - We will vote on the 7th Person Award for Nov/Dec
    o Group decides that they do want a movie night as a finals break
    - Will count as an event
    Jim
    o We pushed back the photo contest due date so the members can get more photos over Winter break
    o For the schools: St. Johnsbury Academy is still trying to find out who is interested in starting a weather concentrated program

    Jon
    o Will work on the member database over break and will have a list of those who are active and who aren't
    - Vote
    o John wont be her next semester so we need to vote in a new treasurer
    o Rules
    - No freshmen
    - Have to be active both this year and last year
    o John announces the details of his job to the attendees
    o Nominations
    - Kate Danna nominates Steve LaVoie and Jaime Osler seconds - Steve accepts
    - Josh Grace nominates Brian DeCicco and Scott Knightly seconds
    - Brian accepts
    - Mike Swan nominates Greg Dutra
    - Greg declines
    o Brian and Steve give their speeches
    o Brian wins 34-6

    - RAFFLE

    End time: 7:30PM---Jon Cunningham.



    MILLERSVILLE UNIVERSITY

    Gerry Bell came to talk about the Atlantic Hurricane season on Wednesday November 16. His talk was very informative. The auditorium was packed with weather weenies. I believe that everyone who came to the discussion left with an extensive amount knowledge on how a hurricanes form in the Atlantic hot spot. Also Ken Reeves recently came to Millersville to discuss Accuweather to the local AMS. He talked about the company and how to go about getting the very competitive internships and jobs they have to offer. He showed two power point presentations. His first talk was to the senior meteorology class during the synoptic time period and then his second talk was at the AMS meeting. After the talk on Wednesday November 30, merchandise was handed out to those who ordered items. Sweatshirts, tee shirts, and travel tumblers were distributed. We are still in thought process about throwing a holiday party for the mentor/mentee program before finals week.---Jodie Frazee.


    OKLAHOMA UNIVERSITY

    Tuesday November 1, 2005


    Tuesday November 15, 2005

    Time Began: 5:10 pm

    Christine made the following announcements: Melissa K. made the following announcements: ------Christy Wall.



    OMAHA-OFFUTT

    November Meeting Minutes ---Evan Kuchera.



    OREGON

    The Oregon chapter held its 13th annual "What Will the Winter be Like?" meeting at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) in Portland on November 4, 2005. Local weather/climate forecasters gathered in OMSI's newly remodeled auditorium to share with a record (90+) audience of colleagues and the public their insights as to the winter weather for the Pacific Northwest. Invited speakers included Steve Todd, Meteorologist-In-Charge for the National Weather Service in Portland; Kyle Dittmer, Hydrologist-Meteorologist for the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC); George Taylor, Oregon's state climatologist; and Pete Parsons, a consulting meteorologist in Redmond, Oregon.

    Welcoming remarks were given by Jim Todd of OMSI. KPTV-Fox 12 meteorologist Mark Nelsen began with a review of the 2004-2005 winter weather. Highlights included a wet and warm start in October, followed by an abrupt and prolonged dry period. Other than a minor ice storm in mid-January, winter weather was quite mild and dry. Rain roared back into the Pacific Northwest by March 19 and snow-packs briefly rebuilt before the spring season melt.

    Mr. Dittmer (current OR-AMS President) then gave highlights as to the current activities of the Oregon Chapter. A new colorful information pamphlet was shown. A new website (http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/index.html) was announced. Finally, an outreach campaign was launched with 30 letters sent to local high schools offering our speakers bureau.


    A crowd of 90+ gathers to hear winter weather presentations.
    Jim Todd of OMSI delivers welcoming remarks and reviews science in the news.
    Kyle Dittmer, OR-AMS President, reviews chapter activities.
    Mark Nelsen, KPTV Meteorologist, reviews the winter weather of 2004-2005.

    Steve Todd of the NWS summarizes NOAA's forecast.
    Kyle Dittmer explains sunspot cycles and impacts to earth's weather.
    George Taylor of OSU shows expected temperature departures.
    Pete Parsons explains his forecast for each winter month.

    Two common elements in all the outlooks for this coming winter were noting the current phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-"neutral" and low-elevation snow. The National Weather Service's Steve Todd said to expect an "increased probability" of above normal temperatures and "equal chances" of below, normal, and above normal precipitation.

    CRITFC's Kyle Dittmer uses sunspot cycles, multi-variable ENSO (MEI), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), sea-surface temperatures, and analog water years to derive a forecast of near normal temperature (albeit slightly cooler) and near normal precipitation. He predicts two modest size (4-6 inches) snow events for the Portland area. Dittmer also warned, based solely on the solar cycle, that the winter of 2006-07 to be "La Nina" and could be cold, wet, and snowy.

    State of Oregon's George Taylor uses PDO, MEI, sea-surface temperatures, EP and PNA indices, solar cycles, and Atlantic hurricane activity to generate a forecast. He predicts winter to be above normal temperatures with slightly above (early) to above (late) normal precipitation and an above average chance for an extreme event - low elevation snow in January.

    Pete Parsons, a former TV meteorologist, also looks at many ocean and atmospheric variables, and selects appropriate surrogate years to use. His forecast suggests slightly cold temperatures for November, January and February and a slightly wet December and February. He too is calling for above average chance of snow in Portland with one snow/ice event in January.

    In an effort to help bring the science of meteorology to the local community, our chapter has been partnering with OMSI since 1999 in staging the popular Winter Weather meeting. Both the Oregon chapter and OMSI benefit from the attention generated by ample local media coverage.---Kyle Dittmer.



    OSWEGO STATE UNIVERSITY

    OSSCAMS Meeting Minutes 11-02-05

    -16 Members Attended (18 Members @ 10-19-05 Meeting)

    Public Relations Report: Shawn Smith (cbr600f4iny@yahoo.com)
    -Jacket Information
    -Jackets will arrive next meeting
    -Oswego Emergency Response Team
    -Team to receive Donations to Shovel Out Cars in Winter
    -anyone interested contact Shawn.

    Treasurers Report: Nick Camizzi (camizzi@oswego.edu)
    -Fundraising Ideas
    -Winter Caps/Baseball Hats
    -Will bring in picture next meeting
    -Any other ideas contact Nick.
    Secretarys Report: Brian Curtis (bcurtiswx@yahoo.com)
    -AMS Memberships (15$ Per Person from Student Members)
    -Application were handed out to members, if you need one either go to http://www.ametsoc.org or contact Brian for an application.
    -AMS Scholarships
    -Yahoo Group OSUMetClub http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osumetclub
    -Add pictures, send e-mails, make it how you want it!
    -Snowfall Contest
    -Information posted in Met Lab and also online.
    Vice Presidents Report: Nicole Hannon (nhannon@oswego.edu)
    -Magnets 2$ each
    -NWS Binghamton Nov 5th 2005
    -Also visit TV Station 34 in Binghamton
    -8:00 AM North Parking Lot. 5:00 PM Approx Return.
    -Can Koozies?
    -Adopt a Grandparent

    Presidents Report: Holly Sobocinski (stormchasegrl@hotmail.com)
    -NESC ( 50$ DEPOSIT DUE ON DEC 7TH )
    -Incredible opportunity
    -Great contact builder
    -March 10-12
    -Anywhere from $50-$90
    -Takes care of Hotel, Banquet, Dinners.
    -National Conference
    -Jan 29th-Feb2nd 2006
    -Atlanta Georgia
    -Talk to Chris/Scott who've been there previous years
    -Brian Curtis, Nicole Hannon, Jason Keeler are recipients of the student assistance grant.
    -Community Service
    -Hunger Banquet
    -Lake Effect Conference (Approx Oct 21, 2006)
    -Planning Stages to start immediately
    ---Brian Curtis.



    PACKERLAND

    Meeting Minutes-November 28, 2005

    The Packerland Chapter of the AMS held a meeting on November 28 at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay, Rose Hall. Chapter President Dr. Steven Meyer welcomed the nearly 80 attendees and introduced the featured speaker, Daryl Kleist. Mr. Kleist works at the National Center for Environmental Protection (NCEP). The title of his presentation was "Improving Forecasts: An Overview of the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)."

    The following is a short summary of Mr. Kleist's presentation:
    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is made up of 122 Weather Forecast Offices, 9 national centers, and 6 regions. The weather forecasting process includes weather observations, analysis, model forecasting, and posting processed model data to forecasters and end-users. Skill level in predicting precipitation amounts is gaining quickly.

    There are over 200 million weather observations received at the Environmental Modeling Center, with about 7 million of them used in some capacity. These atmospheric observations are obtained from official surface reports, ships, radiosondes, ACARS (Aircraft in flight), and satellites. Basic assumptions are made with the data received, and these need to be "good" assumptions. There is more work to do reference data anomalies. More weather observations don't necessarily make a better forecast. Forecasting on large scales is "fairly good".

    The NCEP is a critical component to the National Weather Service, and the EMC is crucial in developing and improving weather forecasts.

    In local PCAMS business, the annual Holiday Gathering/December Meeting will be held at the Holiday Inn City Centre in Green Bay on December 8th. More information to follow.


    Winter 2005 Newsletter---Dale Walker.



    PLYMOUTH STATE UNIVERSITY

    Executive Board Meeting

    Date: November 7, 2005
    Minutes: 5:00-5:30pm
    Board Members in Attendance: Chris G, Chris W, Katie F, Andy T

    Topics Discussed at meeting: Executive Board Meeting

    Date: November 8, 2005
    Minutes: 7- 7:35pm
    Members in Attendance: 37
    Board Members in Attendance: Chris G, Chris W, Katie F, Andy T
    Adviser: Dr. Hoffman

    Topics that were discussed: Chris G Chris W Katie F Andy T Dr. Hoffman ---Katie Francoeur.



    SMOKY MOUNTAIN

    The Smoky Mountain Chapter of the AMS met on November 21st around 6:15 p.m. at Barley's Taproom in the Old City of Knoxville. After dinner, the meeting commenced in Room 166 at the Biosystems Engineering and Environmental Science Building on the U.T. Ag Campus. Our guest speaker was Matthew Miller (WATE-TV 6) who spoke about "A Brief Overview of East Tennessee Weather". Matthew has recently published a book entitled "Wierd, Wild and Unpredictable", which is an illustrated history of east Tennessee weather. The following was a synopsis of his talk: "Looking back over data collected from east Tennessee weather sites and compiling that with stories of those who can recall some of the big weather events in our history, a picture becomes clear of a weather history that has helped shape this region into what we see today. The landscape and topography plays an important role in fine tuning larger scale weather patterns into the weather we experience each day. In this presentation, we will look back at some of the peculiarities of east Tennessee weather in an informative and informal manner".---David Gaffin.



    TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY

    At our November meeting, we discussed details about our upcoming trip and Christmas Party. Our storm-chasing team, TASC, presented the idea of ordering storm-chasing jackets. Our speaker for this meeting, Jill Hasling, is the president of the Weather Research Center in Houston, Texas. She presented us with a view of her company and their mission to educate kids about weather and science. After both meetings, everyone enjoyed pizza on the 12th floor of the O&M Building.---Melissa Polt.



    TWIN CITIES

    The November meeting of the Twin Cities American Meteorological Society was called to order at 7pm at the Twin Cities WFO in Chanhassen, MN.

    Kevin Huyck, head of the speaker committee, informed us that they had found a speaker for our January meeting. He is a doctoral student at the University of Minnesota, studying severe weather climatology of Minnesota. The committee also looked at a restaurant to hold a meeting, but to narrow their selection, they needed to know what entree price range the membership would be most in favor of. A quick poll revealed $10-$15.

    For our next meeting, Secretary/Treasurer Chris Bovitz was to contact one of the local TV stations for a tour. He said that he contacted the one which we had visited the longest ago, but they had not written back yet. President Rich Naistat said that they would be at the WFO tomorrow for a winter weather workshop; he would ask them then.

    Chris gave a brief summary of the last meeting, and he gave a summary of the chapter expenses and revenues since the last meeting.

    Then the main speaker, Karen Trammell, began her presentation on the September 21, 2005, tornado and windstorm event which occurred in the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. Karen is a forecaster at the Twin Cities WFO, a recent transfer from the Norman/Oklahoma City WFO.

    This severe weather event was notable for a number of reasons: The time of year (mid- to late September) and time of day (after sunset), the number and strength of the tornadoes (4 on this day, and the state's only F2 tornado), the winds (a large area of 70 mi/hr and greater), hail (up to 3 inches in diameter), the location (in a metropolitan area), and its making the national news (during Hurricane Rita).

    Karen took us through the synoptic setting, which had most of the ingredients one might expect for severe weather such as a low-level boundary, a (weak) low-level jet, and an upper jet streak. At 12Z, these features were not aligned, but they had become better aligned and sharper by 00Z.

    The mesoscale features were what focused the storm across the Twin Cities. A low-level boundary in central Minnesota moved slowly southward through the late afternoon, encountering an environment with increasing low-level shear, convective available potential energy (CAPE), decreasing lifting condensation levels (LCLs), and backing winds south of the boundary advecting dewpoints in the 70s.

    A severe thunderstorm which developed along the boundary northwest of the Twin Cities did not produce a tornado, but when it approached the better conditions in the Twin Cities, it evolved into a high-precipitation supercell over the northwestern suburbs, and it did produce a tornado which caused F2 damage, large hail, and strong winds.

    Karen offered a thesis about how the storm changed its environment which allowed it to evolve from a classic supercell to a HP supercell.

    After a few minutes of questions, Karen concluded her presentation. The meeting ended about 8:30 p.m. Our next meeting will be December 14, 2005, or at the convenience of our anticipated hosts.---Chris Bovitz.



    UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA - HUNTSVILLE

    November 1, 2005

    Secretary Responsibilities Ideas
  • Poster - Dr.Knupp
  • Brochure
  • SA Spring Picnic
  • Connect with city
  • Elementary school visits Social Event Money 1st Meeting


    November 11, 2005

    Professional
    - Dustin Phillips, phillips@nsstc.uah.edu - Student paragraph
    - Poster
    Social
    - Royal Pines Apts.
    Fundraiser
    - also sell T-shirts $10, coffee cups $6
    Dr. Nair Huntsville Meeting Next Semester ---Holly Searcy.



    UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH ALABAMA

    November 17, 2005

    Officers:
    President - Chasity Beard
    Vice-President - Paul Boudreaux
    Secretary - Tara Golden
    Treasurer - Sommer Garrett
    SeCAPS Coordinator - Javier Vazquez
    Webmaster - Jason Holmes
    Public Relations - Jenny Smith

    Upcoming Events: We will be having a movie night Thursday, Dec. 8, in room 1101 of the Mitchell Center. We want to give the students a much needed break from studying for finals. Everyone will get a chance to vote on which movie they prefer to watch, and we will try to have some refreshments (i.e. popcorn and drinks) for everyone to enjoy while watching the movie. I hope everyone can make it!!

    SeCAPS: Javy is still in need of a few volunteers. He has already appointed committee heads for all of the committees, but a couple of the committees are a few volunteers short. If you would like to become more involved in the club, then this is a great way to start.

    Chapter Poster: The poster that our chapter will be displaying at the Student Conference in Atlanta this year is nearly completed. It contains a brief history of our chapter, and it summarizes the chapter's activities over the past year.

    Intramurals: Our intramural flag football team, also known as the Jet Streaks, made the playoffs this year. We are very excited about their accomplishment. So, please come out and support the team!!!!

    Guest Speaker: Jack Cullen from NWS Mobile, also a recent graduate of the University of South Alabama, was kind enough to share with us his presentation on Mobile Area Hurricane History Since 1851. The presentation included slides that showed the tracks of all tropical storms/hurricanes that occurred over each 25 year period from 1900-2000, and then from 2001-2005. There were also slides that gave a brief history and description of each of the tropical cyclones that impacted the area from 1995 to the present. Jack also included several aerial photographs from inside the eyewall of Hurricane Katrina, which were amazing. He ended the presentation with numerous photos taken along the coast during and after Katrina. His presentation was very informative and interesting.---Tara Golden.



    WRIGHT MEMORIAL

    November Newsletter


     



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