Chapter News
February 2007


AMS Minutes February 1st, 2007

Call Meeting to Order: The meeting was called to order by Jim Peronto, President, at 11:15 a.m. The meeting was held at the Anchorage National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Introductions around the room. Last meeting's minutes were approved. Treasurer's Report: $1958.10

Old/New Business:

Jim Green AMS Calendars?

Donations Earth Day…May 5th, 2007 Scholarships

Local/Minority National scholarship. AMS National Meeting: Forecast Contest Winner! Science Fair - Saturday, March 10 and 11, 2007 The Next Meeting will be held February 26th Photo Contest Main Event:

Fred Hirschmann, a professional photographer known for his amazing Alaskan Aurora snapshots, was our speaker for the meeting. He spoke about how the internet has made "Aurora Chasing" much easier, being able to visit many websites to get as much information as possible. Some of his favorite websites are NASA's Space Weather, National Weather Service Space Environment Center, Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks prediction site, ACE real time solar wind data, and a Canadian independent site called Solar Terrestrial Dispatch. He gave a couple of pointers to look for to have a good aurora visible night: Some of the interesting facts on auroras he pointed out was that most auroras are green in color, due to the individual oxygen atoms being excited to one level of energy. If the aurora is red, that means the atoms jumped 2 energy levels, denoting the higher intensity solar storms. When the aurora turns a purple/blue color, sunlight is hitting nitrogen atoms that occurs right before dawn or right after dusk. Another interesting fact is that what aurora show is seen in the Northern Hemisphere is mirrored in the Southern Hemisphere at the corresponding geomagnetic latitudes, creating the Southern Lights. He confirmed that Fall and Spring are the better times to see and photograph auroras, but the reason why is still being studied scientifically, but the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is more likely to be oriented south at this time due to the tilt of the earth. The atmosphere can have the same effect on auroras as it does on the sunset/rise light. It bends the light with increasing depth of atmosphere it has to travel through, making the green light of the aurora turn to yellow or almost orange near the horizon.

In terms of camera equipment and "tricks of the trade", he likes to stick with film rather than switching to digital. He claims that digital chips will display colors different from camera to camera, he trusts film more. He recommends an exposure of 16 seconds minimum up to 2 minutes maximum, depending on how bright the aurora is. He also recommends using fast film (400 ASA), the lowest opening IFO and a wide-angle lens. Using a cable release on a tripod will take away any movement provided by the photographer. Moonlight can greatly enhance an aurora photograph, providing more light and allowing a shorter exposure. Light pollution and urban haze can have a huge effect on photographing auroras, so he recommends getting out into the "bush", away from any city.

An exciting note Fred pointed out was that sun spots have an 11-year cycle. The last one was in 2001, resulting in 2007 being in a "trough" of sun spot activity. However, scientists are noting that we are still seeing a lot of activity and hypothesize that the next sun spot maximum will be very large and extremely active. We look forward to Fred's shots in 2012!


The meeting was adjourned by Jim Peronto at 1 p.m.---Lisa Reed.


Minutes of Meeting
15 February 2007

1. The fifth meeting for 2006-07 of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), Asheville chapter was held on Thursday, March 15, 2007, in the Folk Art Center on the Blue Ridge Parkway, near Asheville, North Carolina. It was called to order by the President, Maj Paul Roelle. There were 160 persons in attendance, some from as far away as Atlanta, Georgia.

2. The Asheville AMS chapter presented the monthly "healthy environmental program" to the organization being recognized this month for promoting healthy environmental programs. The February award was presented to the President of the Asheville-Buncombe Technical Community College, Mr K. Ray Bailey, and some key members of his staff. The presentation was in recognition of their efforts to build modular homes which meet the requirements for western North Carolina Green Council's "Healthy Built Homes Program", using sustainable materials. This program incorporates the many design and construction skills taught at the college. The goal is to provide local design and construction agencies with workers skilled in producing affordable, energy efficient homes.

3. The local Asheville AMS chapter officers planned a presentation series to focus on climate change for the first three meetings in 2007. The kickoff speaker for this series, Dr Thomas Peterson, from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), Asheville, NC was then introduced by Maj Roelle. Dr Peterson's talk was titled "An Introduction to Climate Change Science."

4. Dr Peterson segmented his talk into "the nature of science," "the physics of climate change", "climate change detection and distribution", and "common questions about climate change".

5. Dr Peterson, quoting Michael Shermer, 1977, stated science is "a specific way of analyzing information with the goal of testing claims", reinforced by Jay Gould, 1999, "Science does not deal in certainty, so 'fact' can only mean a proposition affirmed to such a high degree that it would be perverse to withhold one's provisional assent." Competing claims, information, and even misinformation can be assessed by: 1. testability - can it be proven false?; 2. fruitfulness - does it yield observable surprising predictions?; 3. scope - how many different phenomena does it explain?; 4. simplicity - how many assumptions does it make?; and, 5. conservatism - is it consistent with our well founded beliefs?

6. Dr Peterson then explained that to understand the discussion about global warming one must understand quantum physics. The energy from the sun used to warm the atmosphere is infrared (IR) energy. It can only be absorbed and re-radiated back into the atmosphere as heat in very small particle-like packets of energy called quanta. Two of the molecules that comprise 98% of the atmosphere, nitrogen (N2) and oxygen (O2), can absorb very little IR energy, thus impact atmospheric warming very little. Three molecules that do effectively absorb and re-radiate IR energy are carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapor (H20), and methane (CH4), but collectively they only comprise 2% of the atmosphere, with CO2 only .04%. Because they comprise only a small portion of the atmospheric "brew", large changes in concentration must be present for an appreciable change in atmospheric heating due to greenhouse gases. But, it is this small percentage of greenhouse "gases", absorbing and re-emitting IR radiation, that warms the Earth's surface and lower atmosphere. Another atmospheric "gas", ozone, tends to cancel out its impact in the upper atmosphere versus the lower atmosphere, as far as atmospheric warming goes. Certain aerosols, such as dust, sulfate, organic carbon, biomass smoke, and clouds containing certain aerosols counteract the effect somewhat by cooling the atmosphere, but these impacts only remain in the atmosphere on the order of days to weeks after insertion. The aforementioned chemically active greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere on the order of decades once introduced. Thus, their impacts are long term and take longer to mitigate even after the source is removed.

7. The earth's surface currently averages 60oF. Without the greenhouse effect it would be around 5oF. Therefore, we need warming due to the greenhouse effect or there would be no plant life, and thus little or no animal life on Earth since it would be too cold. But, as explained by Dr Peterson, humans are changing the radiative properties of the atmosphere by introducing more greenhouse gases and thereby the impact due to the greenhouse effect. It is the amount of this change that is receiving the attention of scientists and the public.

8. So what do the temperature records show? Using world-wide temperatures, the last 100 years from records, the previous 1000 years from paleoclimate records, a change can be detected. Using many independent studies average global temperatures have warmed 0.4-0.8oC in the last 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution. The following illustration is from the presentation.

Figure 1. Global temperature averages.

9. As global temperatures warm, on average, the next important question to ask is what is causing this phenomenon? Are greenhouse gases responsible for part or the entire rise? Quantum physics states we should expect them to be the culprit. Climate models developed over the last 20 years state they are. Dr Peterson then illustrated this assumption. Using ice core samples up to 2 miles thick over the Antarctic subcontinent, which allows scientists to look back for hundreds of thousands of years, the long view correlates the direct relationship, as illustrated during the speech. Note the current CO2 levels, as barely seen in the upper right of the following illustration, and that much higher level with respect to the previous hundreds of thousands of years are present.

Figure 2.

10. Similarly, the "short" view can be seen in the following illustration from Dr Peterson's talk.

Figure 3. The bar graph is global temperature anomalies, the line graph CO2 concentrations.

11. Having established a link between the changing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, specifically CO2 in this case, and average global temperatures, the next question to ask is what is the impact on observed temperatures? Both temperature maximums and minimums are warming. However, the lowest temperatures of the year are warming faster than the average highest temperatures. See the following figures.

Figure 4.

12. Critics of these findings have proposed alternative explanations. While some have stated satellite observations show no warming, recent studies have shown the earlier studies had errors. Current satellite studies indicate warming. Another argument heard during the debate is the impact of urban heat islands, where many of the weather reporting stations are located in or near, and the skewing of the data based on this impact. There is concern by some the temperature data is showing rising average temperatures as the urban areas expand and encompass more or the thermometers. However, there are enough readings from thermometers not impacted by urban heat islands to negate that argument. Also, independent natural phenomena which respond to warmer temperatures, such as plant bloom dates, lake/river freeze and thaw dates, and melting of glaciers indicate increasing temperature. There is also ample data from the oceans, also not affected by urban heating, to corroborate warming temperatures.

13. Having established warming temperatures as a fact, what are the actual and projected impacts? Hurricane strength and frequency are impacted. There is some research showing a probable increase in the number of hurricanes with a more validated impact with respect to increasing hurricane strength, on average. Sea levels are forecast to rise, some literature stating 7-20 inches by 2100. However, recent observations indicate a more rapid melting of glaciers with a resulting faster rise in sea level than predicted. Negative impacts from coastal erosion and hurricane storm surges will increase as the water level rises higher along the coasts. Smaller, rapidly breeding animal life will adapt more easily. However, larger and slowly reproducing species have a more difficult time adapting to increasing temperatures. Especially imperiled are arctic ice dependent species. Plant life is also impacted with some positive and some negative aspects being observed. Growing seasons are lengthening in many areas and cold extremes are relaxing. This enables more plant life. Unfortunately, it also allows more plant pests, which feed upon and infect plants, to flourish also. The overall impact may be negative.

14. Since a large majority of the audience was from western North Carolina, Dr Peterson used climate modeling to project the climate changes in the southeastern United States. Comparison of different models indicate a wide predictive variability, but on the average show minor change during this century in average daily precipitation (figure 5). However, the number of days with heavier precipitations is projected to increase (figure 6). Both figures are reproduced from a study by Peterson, et al, 2007, and shown during the talk.

Figure 5. Total precipitation in the southeastern U.S.

Figure 6. Heavy precipitation.

15. The predicted change in temperature was also shown. Modeling a "mid-range" increase in CO2, an average 3.5oC increase in annual surface air temperature, using the 1990's decade as a base, is predicted by the end of the current century. Business "as usual" produces a prediction of a 4.5oC increase. See the following figures, also from Peterson, et al, 2007.

Figure 7. Air temperature increase based on a "mid-range" CO2 increase.

Figure 8. Air temperature increase based on business "as usual" CO2 increases.

16. In conclusion, Dr Peterson stated that the actual rate of change in average temperatures may actually increase over what we have observed the past few years. He also stated that even if we stopped emitting CO2 now, there would still be residual warming for the next few decades due to the long response lag of CO2 in the atmosphere. Recently a climate expert was asked if a hot day he and a friend were experiencing was due to global warming. He stated that one day's temperature can't be attributed to global warming. However, he said that warm day gives us the "privilege" of experiencing the weather we are bequeathing our children and grandchildren.

17. Questions and answers followed the presentation

18. In other news of the local organization, three representatives from the Asheville AMS local chapter, Maj Paul Roelle, Bruce Burleson, and TSgt Lois Ellingson, also participated in the North Carolina Region 8 Science Fair at Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC, on February 21-22. They judged two days of the fair and presented special AMS atmospheric sciences category awards to selected elementary, junior, and senior high school students. The local chapter presented a NOAA weather radio and an AMS Science Fair Certificate of Achievement to the atmospheric sciences first place winners for the elementary school fair on the 21st and for the junior/senior high school fair on the 22nd. Additionally, the representatives provided AMS certificates to the second place winners in each category. The winners in the elementary school category were Silas Crews, first place with his exhibit, "The Greenhouse Effect", and Madeleine Hatch, second place for "Fabulous Fashion Science." In the junior and senior high school competition first place went to Bailey Hunter, "Weather in My Neighborhood", and second place to Monique Laborde for "Building in the Wind."---John D. Gray.


Meeting Date: February 6, 2007

Attendence: Chris Aliseo, Megan Babich, Meghan Bagnasco, Catherine Bodak, Christine Bukowski, Dan Burkhart, Felicia Butterfield, Chris Burling, Joe Ceru, Karl Courter, Aric Cylkowski, Emily Daub, Katie Dupree, Michael Estime, David Hampton, Adam Hart, Andy Hatzos, Amanda Hazard, Mike Hesche, Annie Hoezee, Kimberly Hoogewind, Brandon Hoving, David Janczewski, Sarah Jensen, Stefanie Klimowicz, Morris Langworthy, Kayla Moore, Nathan Niedzwiecki, Jacob Owens, Cort Scholten, Chris Snider, Sara Strey, Kailey Wass

Meeting in Session: 9:04

President's Report: Want to hook up computer. Sorry about sledding. Its COLD! Excellent work with the conference. Cost us NOTHING! President was in the Newspaper. Thank you: NWS, Joe Ceru, eboard, professors, Dr. Orf, We can plan on doing this again in the future. We may be organizing a quick response team.

Vice President's Report:
Committee Reports:
  1. Activites- Las Senorita's, good show up. Weather related openers. Sledding next week.
  2. Fundraing- Continue doing online surveys. Its making money for little work. Pop bottle collecting sheets, put on doors and ask neighbors for their cans.
  3. Jobs and Internships- New information on board. We should be getting information from TV stations for internships.
  4. Public Relations- Following up on ideas.
Treasurer's Report: Collect $8 in pop bottles. Get receipts for the bottles. Savings $1549.14 Check $86.92

Secretary's Report: Attendance.

SGA Report: Fireside chat. SGA met Monday. Student Savings Club, not too much response. SGA sends lobbyers to Washington DC for 4 issues. Give tax credit to students, $1000 tax money for books etc, make a Democracy Day for students to vote, memorial for MLK? Next week President Rao is going to be at the SGA meeting. Newspapers around campus: USA Today.

Open Floor: NO NEWS! Money for conference from SBAC finally came, three days late. Possibly get money for students going to Oklahoma. New computers for lab during the summer.

Meeting Adjourned: 9:35

Meeting Date: February 13, 2007

Attendence: Chris Aliseo, Dave Anderson, Megan Babich, Catherine Bodak, Christine Bukowski, Dan Burkhart, Chris Burling, Aric Cylkowski, Emily Daub, Jennifer Flakes, Michael Estime, Jennifer Flakes, David Hampton, Adam Hart, Andy Hatzos, Amanda Hazard, Mike Hesche, Annie Hoezee, Danielle Homrich, Kimberly Hoogewind, Brandon Hoving, David Janczewski, Sarh Jensen, Rachel Kulik, Morris Langworthy, Kayla Moore, Ashley Morgan, Nathan Niedzwiecki, Jacob Owens, Damon Paul, Cort Scholten, Sarah Strey

Meeting in Session: 9:04

President's Report: Department letter, Wed. Feb. 14, Job Fair, to hire CMU students, everyone should go. Get well soon card for Stephanie.

Vice President's Report:
Committee Reports:
  1. Jobs and Internships: George Lessons internship, wants resumes or demos, applications are due by April 1. Open to anyone beyond 2nd year is encouraged to apply.
  2. Activities: No sledding, more activities to come. Movie and game night will be in the Woldt Lobby.
  3. Public Relations: no report, should try to schedule school visits again.
  4. Fundraising: Yankee Candles, return is 40%. Cedar Point would make a few thousand dollars.
Treasurer's Report:
Checking: $1507.32 Savings: $86.92

Secretary's Report: Attendence sheet passed around.

SGA Report: President Rao was at the SGA meeting. ROTC- battery battle. $100 first prize, object is to return burned out batteries.

Open Floor: Campus Climate Challenge?
Conferences: Iowa Conference, need numbers that are going.
SkyWarn, with speakers, in Indiana.
New project? Storm Ready Campus, fast action response training. (tornados, storms) Would need to meet 6 criteria, we already meet 4 or 5.

Meeting Adjourned: 9:34

Meeting Date: February 20, 2007

Attendence: Chris Aliseo, Dave Anderson, Megan Babich, Meghan Bagnasco, Meagan Banas, Jeraca Benson, Christine Bukowski, Dan Burkhart, Felicia Butterfield, Chris Burling, Joe Ceru, Karl Courter, Aric Cylkowski, Emily Daub, Katie Dupree, Michael Estime, Jennifer Flakes, David Hampton, Stacy Hare, Adam Hart, Andy Hatzos, Mike Hesche, Annie Hoezee, Danielle Homrich, Brandon Hoving, David Janczewski, Stefanie Klimowicz, Rachel Kulik, Morris Langworthy, Kayla Moore, Nathan Niedzwiecki, Jacob Owens, Cort Scholten, Chris Snider, Sara Strey

Meeting in Session: 9:05

President's Report: Cleaning house, historical facts were found in a cabinet that people can look up, it is the top left corner.

Vice President's Report:
Committee Reports:
  1. Activities: went sledding, next week going to have a movie night, or games. Good time!
  2. Fundraising: Calender, someone did one in the past. Yankee Candles coming soon!
  3. Jobs and Internships: nothing new.
  4. Public Relations: nothing new.
Treasurer's Report: gained pop bottle money Checking: $86.92 Saving: $1559.54
Secretary's Report: attendance sheet handed out

SGA Report:
Iowa people need to fill out paperwork.
SBAC will be giving us money...
Fire President Rao? Proposal was made to force him to resign. People are welcome to go to the general board meetings.

Other Announcements:
Storm ready, meeting next Tuesday at 8.
We are looking for new Met Lab Assistants.
Conferences: STRC funding, $2274.00
Valpo moved to Valpo! Online registration, don't need to mail in. $45 on time, $50 if late. SkyWarn next couple weeks. SCEP program due before Tuesday, March 27, 2007.
Website, vote $15 to keep it running.

Meeting Adjourned: 9:43----Annie Hoezee.


Monthly Meeting Minutes
February 15, 2007

The meeting was called to order at 7:38 PM by President, Bebhinn Do.

Attendance: 28

Minutes were read and approved. Sign in sheet was passed around.

Member database was discussed and it was decided that we would send out an e-mail polling the members as to whether we should create a database on the website and what should be included.

Treasurer's report.

As of 2/14/06 the balance is $5,218.59; of which $4,575.98 is operational and $642.61 is the Academic Achievement Fund. $6,096.17 resides in the CD to bring total chapter assets to $11,314.76.

Bebhinn gave Education report for George Bridgers, mentioning that science fair winners would be announced soon.

New business: Caroline Larsen announced she had free 2007 weather calendars to pass out.

The banquet will be held at the Cardinal Club May 4th. Details on menu and ticket prices will be forthcoming soon. The speaker will be Jay Barnes. John White asked if non-members might be able to attend, which should be fine.

It is time to select officers for next year. If anyone would like to be on the nominating committee or would like to self-nominate, let Bebhinn know.

An effort is in the works to set up carpooling to meetings.

Roscoe Braham was awarded Honorary Member at the AMS conference last month in San Antonio TX. Steve Harned emphasized what an outstanding honor this is.

Bebhinn Do introduced the night's program, "Inundation Mapping and Real Time Alerting" or "East Meets West: North Carolina's Flood Warning Program". Our speaker was David Herlong, NC Flood Warning Program Manager, Geospatial and Technology Management, NC Div. of Emergency Management

David announced that program partners included the National Weather Service, US Geological Survey, and Local Government Offices. FEMA has funded this flood mapping program. North Carolina became cooperative in the program. A mapping and warning system is important because most people that die in hurricanes die in their cars, while driving through flooded areas. The program received a grant of $3.1 million to pilot a project in the Tar River Basin. The North Carolina Flood Warning System goals include: It will work through a network of rain and stream gages with readings sent to satellites and then down to forecast centers, where they are run through a flood forecast model. Components of the system include:

1. Inundation Mapping in eastern North Carolina
2. IFLOWS (AFWS) System in western North Carolina
The inundation mapping will be completed in phases depending on what areas of the state deserve highest priority. Currently there are 46 inundation map libraries in 6 river basins.

The Flood Inundation Web Application, FINMAN, contains 3 main components:

1. Real-time module
2. Forecast module
3. Scenario module, which includes a "what if" exercise

River rises, depicted in ½ foot increments, are graphically overlaid over databases and maps. Elevation and corresponding gage height are shown on these maps. The user can pick a scenario and see the outcome overlaid over Ortho (satellite) photos. An example was shown for Hurricane Alberto, June 15, 2006. Flood severity levels were evaluated for critical locations. Severity levels correspond to color codes (green, yellow, orange, red, and purple), as well as, gage height and elevation. Anecdotal information is added to qualify various flood stages. The system then has the capability to relay automatic messages to local authorities through pagers and e-mail. The website (still in development) is:

Western North Carolina's current program includes 125 rain/stream gages (need more) and 55 USGS gages. An expanded program will include: The communications network will included: The vision is to have a map of NC that shows quickly what is going on, to include: 1. Flood plane mapping 2. Inundation mapping 3. Alert notification

There is great potential for the program, but need to get the network in place to take advantage of all the various data available. There have been bumps along the way, but hope to have all the tools available soon. Also, there are plans to hook the system to Storm Surge data.

Additional notes: Impervious surfaces and run off is included to the extent possible, as is snow pack melt. Darin Figurskey, NWS, added that water equivalent and aerial mapping is available. Army Corps of Engineering are part of the information exchange. DOT and USGS are also users of the data.---Janice Godfrey.


Thursday, 4:30 PM, February 22, 2007
National Weather Center (NWC) in Norman, OK

National Severe Weather Workshop 2007
President Patrick Burke announced a reminder for the NSWW 2007 to be held March 1-3 at the National Center for Employee Development in Norman. The workshop is sponsored by the NOAA/NWS, Oklahoma Emergency Management, and our chapter. Copies of the workshop agenda were made available to the membership.

Oklahoma State Science and Engineering Fair
A reminder was announced for the OSSEF to be held Friday, March 30 in Ada. Treasurer Kit Wagner said that the awards ceremony occurs during the evening. Any members who want to be a judge of atmospheric science projects were encouraged to contact a chapter officer.

Future meeting dates
Patrick announced our next two chapter meeting dates would be on Thursday, March 15, and Thursday, April 19. Dr. David Karoly from the OU School of Meteorology would be the guest speaker for the April 19th meeting. The topic for his presentation will be “Can we believe climate model predictors? Is global warming real?” A speaker had not yet been confirmed for the March meeting.

Vice-President Amy Gardner suggested doing an activity outside of the normal business meeting with a speaker. Ideas discussed were to show storm chase videos, go out to dinner after the meeting, and go bowling.

Treasurer’s Report:
Kit reported that we have $9186 in the chapter treasury. There are 31 paid members for the 2006-2007 chapter year. Applications for membership were available to be picked up with dues of $15.

Deke Arndt, Assistant State Climatologist and Program Manager for Public Safety Outreach at the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, presented a talk titled “Oklahoma Climate Update.” His talk discussed how cold and wet this winter has been compared to the historical record. He showed this winter’s impact on long term drought in the state. He also illustrated the variability of the Oklahoma winter climate record.---Jeremy Grams.


Meeting Minutes - February 22nd, 2007

National AMS Membership Treasurer Update - Lisa Stewart Social Chair Update - Jesse Wartman Kaleidoquiz - Jason Patton Spring Break Trip to Oklahoma - Liz White Historian Update - Jeff Edmondson Academic Chair Update - Kaj Johnson O'Mara Cy's Eyes Update - Kaj Johnson O'Mara and Scott Lincoln WxChallenge Update - Jayson Prentice Iowa Forecast Contest - Jon Hobbs Apparel, Calendars and Window Clings LAS Council - Liz White CPR Training Radar Workshop - Scott Lincoln Tornado Machine Building Elementary School Science Nights 11th Annual Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference - March 22nd-24th Spotter Training VEISHEA Career Panel at Next Meeting Officer nominations at next meeting!

We discussed the option of having the club reimburse each person attending the NWA conference $5. Look for an email from Justin to vote on this matter.

Kaj, Justin and Dave presented about their experience at the National AMS conference in San Antonio, TX in January.

Next Meeting: Monday, March 26th, 7 p.m.---Rachel Butterworth.


February 13, 2007

AMS Business Location: Irish Pub at Zona Rosa

Speaker: Ken Cook Wichita, KS
Topic: Preliminary evaluation of a parameter to forecast environments conducive to non-mesocyclone tornadogenesis

Speaker Notes:
Duration of non supercell tornadoes is 5-10 minutes
These are along boundaries but not with a squall line & occur in the afternoon

Mike Hudson (president of the KCAMS) [left] and Ken Cook (speaker for the evening) [right]
---Lisa Hill.


LSC GBM Minutes

Ryan welcomed the club into the meeting at 7:06pm. There were 47 people in attendance. Ryan introduced Hannah Manley from Alumni Relations. Hannah talked about the Alumni reception at the NESC. She said that it is not mandatory and that there will be free food and you get a chance to meet meteorology alumni. Ryan also mentioned that if you aren't an active membership that a single room is $285, a double is $190, a triple is $159, and a Quad is $143. The club then voted on a salad for the conference and Caesar won. Ryan also announced that we have a record number of presentations for the conference at 42 presenters and that the presentations are grouped by topic.

Andrew said that the NESC agenda is now on the webpage. He also said to make sure that you are registered by noon on February 22. Andrew also suggested the people car pool because there is a price for parking this year. Andrew also passed around the cover for the conference booklet.

Laura asked people to form a line at the end of the meeting if they are going to be giving us credit card information.

Eric said that if someone can't pay for the conference to talk to him and set up a payment plan. He also said that parking is going to cost $13 a night and $5 if you are commuting.

Rich then thanked everyone for all their help with the very successful winter ball. Joe announced the photo contest winners: 1st place is Rachel Guilmette, 2nd place is Tom Bensenhaver, and 3rd place is Rachel Ducharme. Joe said that SkyWarn will be March 15th from 7-9pm in the Rita Bole Community Room. After Winter Break there will be a community outreach committee meeting about the science fair and school visits.

Jim said that the alumni newsletter was just sent out. Jim was pleased to announce that he received the first NESC booklet. Jim mentioned that if anyone was interested in running for the executive board to ask questions and that there will be a meeting before elections to also ask questions. Jim reminded everyone about the conference etiquette: business casual, shake hands and be friendly. Most of all have a good time.

The meeting ended with the raffle at 7:27pm.---Laura Ballard.


Location: Georgia Tech

Our fifth meeting of the year was held at GA Tech's Earth and Atmospheric Sciences (EAS) Building. After a short business meeting, we concluded our two-part series on the 2 January 2006 tornadoes.

We need to nominate officers - nomination forms are going around now. Stephanie Klipfel, this year's President-Elect, will be President next year, so we need to nominate President-Elect, Secretary, and Treasurer for 2007-2008. We also need to think about the annual awards (Chandler and Excellence awards) and scholarships. Contact Stephanie for information on the scholarship. We'll vote for officers at our next meeting, and awards/new officers will be announced at the banquet in April.

Since we have a quorum tonight, we'd like to be able to vote by proxy so that we can still have a quorum even if not all are present. The current bylaws require secret ballot; this proposed measure would allow that in the event we don't have a quorum present at the meeting, we could bring secret ballots into the meeting. Our next meeting may be held at CBS46, but the person who is in charge of their Weather Van has been deployed to Iraq, so this tour may be delayed.

Rain gage report: the last four months have been dry; October was the only month above average.

We currently have $2,157.38 in the bank. A little over $100 was collected since last meeting, and we spent spent $125 ($100 was for AMS coffee mugs).

Regarding the Student of the Year Award, we will be accepting nominations through March, and then the Executive Committee will decide on a winner from each school (GA Tech and UGA). The officers discussed raising the scholarship amount, up from the current $150, probably no more than $500.

Chip announced that we have "greatness amongst us" - Lans Rothfusz, (Peachtree City NWS MIC) was just elected Vice President of the National NWA.

Presentation: This meeting is the second in a two-part series on the 2 January 2006 tornadoes. Last month we reviewed the meteorology at the NWS office in Peachtree City. This meeting we'll hear from the people who react to the event.

Pete Nelms - Fayette County EMA Director Sheri Russo - GEMA Lans Rothfusz - NWS Randy Skov - CWSU/FAA Stephanie Klipfel - Delta Ken Cook - Fox 5 ---Trisha Palmer.


February 8, 2007

The meeting commenced at 6pm, there were 14 students in attendance. After meeting in the Caputo lobby, we proceeded to go to the Barnstormer's ice rink in Lancaster City for our second social event of the semester.

February 21, 2007

The meeting commenced at 8:30pm, there were 62 students in attendance. Bill Murtagh spoke at this meeting about "Space Weather and the NOAA Space Environment Center (SEC)". Mr. Murtagh works for the NOAA SEC (division of NCEP) in Boulder Colorado. The SEC is the official source of space weather alerts and warnings for the United States. Mr. Murtagh defined space weather, sun spot cycles, solar flares, and explained the forecasting process for such phenomena. He discussed how space weather affects radio communications, search and rescue activities, GPS capabilities, polar aviation, space travel, power grids, climate, space travel, satellite launches, and even bird migration. After Mr. Murtagh's talk, he was open to questions from students. ---Nick Reitz.


On Tuesday, February 27th, 2007, the North Florida AMS Chapter held its fourth annual banquet at the Holiday Inn Select. The banquet began with Vice Presidence Clark Evans opening. Jessica Fieux proceded with the Year in Review. "This year marks the 5th year of the North Florida Chapter of the AMS, and we have our largest membership count yet with over 80 members," says Jessica. Committee reports followed Jessica. Charlie Woodrum spoke of his Membership committee, which has been a tremendous success. Secretary Katie Walls reviewed her Publicity Committee and her bake sale events. The chapter has made almost $200 in only three bake sales!

Ben Nelson, State Meteorologist of Florida, spoke on the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. Ben grew up in Richmond, VA, and graduated from Florida State University in 1999 with his Bachelor of Science in Meteorology. He became State Meteorologist in July 2004. Mr. Nelson was recognized for his work during the 2004 hurricane season in the Governor's State Address on March 8, 2005.---Kathleen Walls.


February Meeting Minutes---Evan Kuchera.


Temperature Trek III

About 20 members of the Oregon Chapter, plus some of their family members, participated in an increasingly popular field meeting, called "Temperature Trek." Councilor and past chapter President Mark Nelsen had participants assemble near downtown Portland an hour before sunrise on February 17th. We always choose a non-rain day in February. We would then fan out across the Portland metro area along pre-determined routes. One person drives and a passenger records temperature measurements every minute or mile for one hour. We return to the same downtown starting point and turn in our data sheets (see graphic). The data was then compiled by member Charlie Feris. He drew up a contour map (see graphic). The results were discussed at the next meeting. Each year, a different weather pattern emerges. For "TempTrekIII", widespread fog was common in the Tualatin Valley, just west of Portland (see photo). Current and past Temperature Trek results can be found on the Oregon Chapter website:

TempTrekIII Map
TempTrekIII Data Sheet

---Kyle Dittmer.


Spring Newsletter---Peg Zenko and Brian Hulse.


In February, PSUBAMS did not hold any meetings. We did lay out the rest of the spring semester schedule.

On March 1, PSUBAMS will hold an undergraduate research meeting. Three members of the faculty will speak about the research opportunities for undergraduates in the department of Meteorology at Penn State and elsewhere.

March 22 will feature a visit from John Gordon, the MIC at the National Weather Service in Louisville, Kentucky. He will bring his excitement and enthusiasm to Happy Valley throughout his presentation about the NWS and weather outreach programs.

Our last meeting will be a meeting about the new AMS Private Sector Mentorship Program, held on April 11. This informational meeting will feature two mentors, Dick Westergard and Phil Falconer and their mentees from Penn State, Bryan Oshinski and Zack Byko. At the end of the meeting, we will be electing new PSUBAMS Officers for the 2007-2008 school year.---Bryan Oshinski.


Date: February 6, 2007
Minutes: 7:00-7:30pm
Board Members in Attendance: Melissa P, Katie F, Katie P, Norm, Bridget, Heather
Attendance: 50

Katie F. made an official co-presidency announcement as well as publicized the local chapter poster winning 3rd place at the National AMS Conference Meeting in San Antonio, Texas.

Melissa P. discussed the Lyndon State event---field day and tentative date is the weekend of April 14th.

Heather announced that the Red Sox tickets fundraiser will be a raffle, and invited all to attend weekly Exec. Board meetings Wednesdays at 5:30pm in Boyd 321. Also, inquired about interest of freshman and sophomores as representatives.

Norm spoke about Storm Conference to be March 9-11th, 2007 in Springfield, MA. Finalizations to sign-up sheets, payment, and room assignments were made as well as discussions of parking fees and courtesy to drivers in regards to gas money.

Katie P. talked about the elementary school visit and encouraged attendance to the Student Activities Fair Wednesday, February 7, 2007 at 8pm in the HUB Courtroom.

Bridget announced the Snowfall Contest winner: Peter Laufenberg.

Executive Board Meeting

Date: February 6, 2007
Minutes: 6:00-6:30pm
Board Members in Attendance: Melissa P, Heather D, Katie P, Katie F, Norm S, Bridget B

Executive Board Meeting

Date: February 21, 2007
Minutes: 5:30-6:00pm
Board Members in Attendance: Melissa P., Heather D., Katie F., Norm S., Bridgett B.
Other Member in Attendance: Jeff V.


Two Red Sox tickets will be donated by Dan T. for a June game. A raffle will be done to raise money with sales in the HUB at a rented table. Ticket costs are still being determined.

NESC update: Payment was made and room plan is complete. Finding out about parking fees is in the works.

Elementary school has requested we contact them in March for a visit.

Contact the field house for details on the event hosted with Lyndon State.

Chapter of the year application is due by May 1st, 2007.

Next All Majors Meeting will be Thursday March 1, 2007 at 7:00pm. ---Heather Dinon.


Meeting Minutes
Thursday, February 8, 2007

The meeting was called to order by chapter president Brian O'Hara at 5:30 pm PST.

Weather briefing:
Shar Samy gave the evening's weather briefing.

Evening's program:
Chapter member Laura Edwards, a research climatologist at the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) in Reno, gave the evening's presentation. She discussed the activities and projects that researchers at the WRCC are currently involved in.

Annual chapter officer elections:
Elections were held for chapter offices for the upcoming year. Phillip Marzette was elected President; J. D. McAlpine was elected vice president; Subhashree Mishra was elected treasurer; and Brian O'Hara was elected secretary.

Officer reports:
There were no officer reports this meeting.

Committee Reports:
Brian O'Hara (of the weather calendar committee) reported the status of the chapter's calendar fund-raising projects. The chapter has received a $5,000 grant from the University of Nevada Academy for the Environment (UNAE) as seed money for the projects. The calendar projects are progressing well and are on schedule. There is still a need however for photos for the calendars - especially photos of the Lake Tahoe area.

New business:
Brian O'Hara mentioned that he is in the process of submitting the paperwork necessary for the chapter to become an officially recognized student organization of the university. By becoming officially recognized, the chapter will be able to have a bank account with the university, and will be able to apply for grants from the university student government for future chapter projects and field trips.

The meeting was adjourned at 7:12 pm PST.---Brian O'Hara.


February Meeting Minutes

The first meeting of the spring semester was held in O’Neil Hall room 301. Emily Eisenacher, President, announced the severe weather workshop and planning a trip to the weather service. Adam Wallace, Secretary, announced our plans to order more T-Shirts this semester, Becca Baggett, Vice President, Adam Wallace, Secretary, and Andy Kren, Treasurer, presented a slide show of pictures from their trip to the AMS Annual Meeting in San Antonio. Emily Eisenacher, President, and Becca Baggett, Vice President, led a few winter weather trivia questions specific to St. Louis.---Emily Eisenacher.


February 13th 2007
Meeting Minutes
San Diego Natural History Museum - Balboa Park
"Climate Change and California's Water Supply"
Dan Cayan, PhD., Scripps Institution of Oceanography

On February 13th 2007, the San Diego Chapter convened at the San Diego Natural History Museum in Balboa Park to hear Dr. Dan Cayan, director of the Climate Change Research Group at Scripss Institution of Oceanography.

Dr. Cayan opened his presentation with an overview of Climate Change and the possible impacts on California's weather and water resources. Southern California has a narrow window of opportunity for precious rainfall, about 120 days from December through March. Northern California's rain window is a little longer due to it more northerly latitude. Global climate models suggest California's rain window may be shrinking.

Weather records show spring has arrived earlier since the 1970s. Signs of earlier spring arrivals have been documented by earlier lilac bloom dates, higher streamflow from earlier snowmelt in the mountains, and an overall increase in mean temperatures. These regional changes are consistent with the global warming trends.

The higher temperatures have led to higher snow levels, rapid spring snowmelt and higher threats of flooding. The May 16th 2005 Yosemite Valley Flood was one such "warm storm", where just one inch of rain in the river valley produced widespread flooding, mandating evacuations of the valley floor. The snow level was 9000 feet.

Temperature forecasts - Global temperatures have been increasing since 1950. Climate models project 3 to 10.5 degrees C of warming through the end of the 21st century. California snow pack is more vulnerable to climate warming than other parts of the nation because more California snow occurs within a few degrees of freezing. On the low end of the scale, 3 degree C warming corresponds to a snow level increase of 1500 feet (the height where snow changes to rain), resulting in a 30-60% loss in Sierra snowpack. On the high end of the scale, a 10.5 degree C increase corresponds to a 90% loss in Sierra snowpack. Also, the warmer weather leads to earlier spring snowmelt, and more wildfires in summer.

Ocean level forecasts - Sea levels along California's coast have risen seven inches since 1900. The sea level rise is due in part to expansion from increasing ocean water temperatures, and from increased melting from ice sheets above the Arctic Circle. Air temperatures have shown the greatest increase in the polar latitudes than anywhere else, contributing to the increased melting.

Sea levels could rise 22-35 inches if global temperatures rise into the higher end of the warming scale (~10.5 C by the end of the century).

Precipitation forecasts - The global climate models unanimously indicate a warmer climate from global warming (an increase of 3 - 10.5 degrees C by the end of the century), but it's not clear whether this will lead to a wetter or drier climate.

Dr. Cayan closed with a summary of climate change effects in California:
  1. More extreme heat events
  2. Less snow, more rain
  3. Earlier snow melt run-off
  4. More floods
  5. Rising sea levels leading to more coastal flooding and beach erosion
  6. Less stored water
  7. Increased wildfires
A summary report "Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California" from the California Climate Change Center can be viewed at this link.

The next chapter meeting will be May 15, 2003. For more information, please contact Virginia Bigler-Engler tel:858.578.1716, or Mark Moede To be added to the mailing list, send an email to Jim Vann, Bigler-Engler.


After the successful Fall Colloquium Series featuring Kristen Cornett, Cary Mock, and Walker Ashley, the Spring Colloquium Series began on February 22, 2007 for the SW PA Chapter. The first speaker, Jonathan Howell, currently works at NOAA/NWS Office in Memphis, Tennessee. Alum of California University of Pennsylvania, Mr. Howell returned to the University with the interactive presentation entitled "Inside View of National Severe Weather Operations & Weather Case Study". It allowed chapter members to learn about the structure of the NWS, the SCEP opportunities available to students, and analyze synoptic data related to the severe weather outbreak of April 2, 2006. Mr. Howell encouraged students to "be persistent and continue working towards goals- it may not be the exact path you want, but you will get there eventually". Mr. Howell also sat in student-led forecast shifts and provided his professional advice concerning the discussions.---Michael J. Allen.


TAMSCAMS welcomed the semester back with a very interesting and productive meeting in February. We welcomed Roberto Gasparini as our speaker to discuss his job in air pollution consulting for Source Environmental in Houston, Texas. We also discussed our plans for the upcoming semester such as Big Event in March, a trip to the NSSL in March, and Adopt-a-Beach in April. We have many social events planned such as ice skating and attending sporting events. After celebrating the month's birthdays, we adjourned to the 12th floor to enjoy pizza and snacks!---Melissa Polt.


The February 2007 meeting of the Twin Cities chapter of the American Meteorological Society was held on February 20, 2007. The meeting was called to order at 7:05 p.m. by President Chris Bovitz. Vice President Shelby McQuay and Secretary/Treasurer Lori Bovitz were also in attendance. About 12 members and potential members were also present.

The secretary and treasurer reports were read and approved.

Old business focused on the following: Upcoming Events: Other Notes: After the meeting, Chris Bovitz described the operations of the National Operation Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC). First he described why collecting and providing snow information is so important. Many industries rely on accurate information on the current snow pack and the amount of water contained in the snow pack. This includes agriculture, tourism, water storage, transportation, any much more.

NOHRSC runs a snow model and there are three phases to running the model. First the data must be collected and input into the model, then the data is processed, and finally the output is provided.

NOHRSC takes in data in different ways. They take in surface observations of snow from over 25,000 different locations. In addition they fly airborne snow surveys numerous designated flight lines across 31 states and 8 Canadian provinces. They are also adding flight lines in portions of Alaska. Finally, they also take in snow cover analysis from the satellites. This is typically just the coverage and not the amount of snow. This provides an estimate of the land covered by snow.

After all the data is collected, the data is added to the snow model. The snow model is based on the RUC and contains three layers of snow and two layers of soil. Several different variables are considered. The snow model consists of several modules that are used as needed.

Once the model is run a variety of output is provided. Much of the output is available on their Web site at This Web site receives over 12 million hits per month and the number of hits has been increasing as knowledge of their group has spread via the media. On the web site are a wide variety of products. Over 2300 products are produced daily. These include the current observations, results of the model, and 3-D visualizations which can be used along with applications such as Google Earth.---Lori Bovitz.


Tuesday, February 6, 2007
Clifford Hall, Rm. 264
5:00 p.m.

Call to Order:

President Kira Dordal called the AMS meeting to order at 5:00.

Past Minutes:

Last meeting: Officer Reports:

Advisor: Treasurer: Vice President: Secretary: Old Business: New Business:


Fundraising: T-Shirts: Activities: Banquet: Announcements: Adjournment:

Meeting was adjourned without objection at 5:16.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Clifford Hall, Rm. 264
5:00 p.m.

Call to Order:

President Kira Dordal called the AMS meeting to order at 5:01.

Past Minutes:

Last meeting: Officer Reports:

Treasurer: Vice President: Old Business:

New Business:

Mike Poellot stopped in and had a few things to say: Committees:

Fundraising: T-Shirts: Activities: Banquet: Announcements: Adjournment:

Meeting was adjourned without objection at 5:20. ---Katy Olson.


Free Personalized Weather Forecast at UNC

Greeley, Colorado – February 26, 2007 – The University of Northern Colorado’s Chapter of the American Meteorological Society will be providing free personalized weather forecasts for any place in the world, beginning February 26th.

The weather forecasting service is both a community outreach project, as well as forecasting practice for undergraduate meteorology students. Single day to five day forecasts, as well as activity forecasts (such as sport or community activity-related forecasts) are available by e-mail at All the user needs to do is e-mail the location, their activity, and the dates to the forecasting service. A reply will be sent with the information the same day.

UNC meteorology students expect to see this project gain momentum with the arrival of spring break. For more information please visit




February 27, 2007

President - Tara Golden
Vice President - Javier Vazquez
Treasurer - Brandon White
Secretary - Reba Redd
SeCAPS Coordinator - Ronnie Schumann
Webmaster - Jason Holmes

Current and Upcoming Events: SeCAPS: Guest Speaker:
  1. Dissemination of Warnings
  2. Thunderstorm Life Cycle
  3. Pulse storms, Multi-cell Clusters, Multi-cell Line storms, Supercells
  4. Non-severe Weather: Downbursts, Hail, Flash Floods (home videos)
  5. Tornadoes: EF Scale, Look-alike photos
  6. Non-supercell Tornadoes, Dust Devils, Landspouts, Waterspouts
  7. Spotter Safety
  8. Lightning Safety, Downbusrt Safety, Hail Safety
  9. Dangers of Night Spotting
  10. Reporting Severe Weather and What to Report
---Reba Redd.


USF Campus, Environmental Science Bldg
February 6th, 2007

This month's meeting was quite unique. "Teach the Teachers", hosted by Dr. Jennifer Collins of USF, featured a host of weather demonstrations and experiments, aimed at giving schoolteachers useful tools to implement in their own classes. Members were encouraged to invite local teachers to the meeting. There were several teams and individuals who preformed experiments aimed at teaching lessons in meteorology. Each team had various handouts for the 'class' to follow along to as they were doing their presentations.

After a brief member introduction and business meeting to start off the evening, Dr. Collins introduced the first team, a group of her top rated students who performed a series of experiments. The experiments including creating one's own tornado in a jar, (teachers were allowed to bring home their creation) a convection experiment using dyed ice cubes and colored water, and ending with a fascinating experiment called "egg in a bottle" which demonstrated the important concept of pressure gradient force. The enthusiastic students did an excellent job explaining the weather principles involved in each experiments.

Thomas Walsh did a very interesting demonstration on the Hurricane Forecast Uncertainty Cone. After giving out a grid handout, with his instruction, we manually plotted the latitude, longitude, strength, and the average forecast error for the 5-day Hurricane Charley forecast. We were taught that the 'ring of average error' at each plotting point determines the width of the cone used in hurricane forecasting. Teachers will be able to download the Power Point slides and student worksheet from the AMS website.

Nancy Knight did an experiment involving making a cloud in a jar: She heated colored water in a jar, and then decrease the pressure to form a cloud. Following was Dick Fletcher (WTSP-TV) with an interesting demonstration of condensation. Water vapor in the atmosphere can be condensed into visible water droplets by cooling the air and by lowering the pressure. Teachers and members watched two simple experiments to show these processes.

Several local NWS meteorologists did their presentations next. Daniel Noah had a fascinating presentation called Hurricane Strike, which taught basic hurricane science and safety. His presentation was very humorous as well as educational. An interactive CD-ROM disc was included as part of the handout. Barry Goldsmith taught us about the new EF (Enhanced Fujita) scale used for measuring tornado strength. His presentation focused on using degrees of damage, shown in a powerpoint presentation, to demonstrate how and why the scale was changed. Interesting note: the National Weather Service in Tampa was the first NWS office to implement the new scale during the tornado event struck central Florida on the morning of February 2nd, 2007.

Another student of Dr. Collins took the stage next, demonstrating different lab exercises using the IDV 2.0 program that teachers can take advantage of for use in their classes. Last but not least was Paul Toth, a local ham radio operator for the local west central Florida group ( This group was vitally important in keeping communications open with emergency personnel during the massive power outages while hurricane Charley was affecting portions of the state. His presentation explained the links between weather stations operated by amateur radio operators, and how the data they provide helps forecast models.

The evening was very enjoyable as members got to interact with each other and the teams and individuals doing the demonstrations. The variety of experiments made it all the more interesting. The teachers that attended were very impressed and many have said they will attend future meetings.---Andy Johnson.


The chapter cosponsored The First Tri-State Weather Conference on October 7, 2006 in the new Science Building at Western Connecticut State University. The conference, organized by Professor Rob Eisenson, was presented by the meteorology program at WestConn and additionally cosponsored by the NYC/Long Island Chapter of the American Meteorological Society, and NOAA/NWS/Upton, NY. The keynote speakers were Dr. Louis W. Uccellini (Director of the National Centers for Environmental Protection) and Paul J. Kocin (Author and Renowned Winter Weather Expert). There were about 20 other oral and poster presentations with good representation from educational institutions, NWS offices, and private meteorologists from around the tri-state region. The presentations were, without exception, excellent and well received by the approximately 160 attendees.

With the overwhelming success of the October conference, the AMS/WestConn Student Chapter is planning to host the Second Tri-State Weather Conference in 2008. Countless commending emails have been received encouraging another Tri-State Weather Conference, many of which have requested a 2-day event. WestConn will definitely be considering this suggestion in the planning of the 2008 conference. ---J.J. DePasqua.


February Newsletter---Mary Bedrick.


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