Chapter News
December 2004

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

The December meeting of the Central North Carolina Chapter of the AMS featured Dr. Gary Lackmann, professor at NC State University, as our guest speaker. Dr. Lackmann's talk was entitled "Diamond Dust, moon Dogs, and Auroras", which outlined his experiences in the Coordinated Eastern Artic Experiment (CEAREX) through photographs, anecdotes, and the science he was sent to study.

CEAREX was a multinational artic field program started in 1998. The program consisted of five ships, five aircraft, ice camps, and buoy arrays to record a plethora of marine and meteorological measurements in the artic. The observations were designed to cover a variety of research areas, including marine biology, ice physics, general meteorology, oceanography, and air-ice-sea interactions.

The multiphase program included the mooring of the Polarbjorn in the midst of two ice flows at 80°N latitude. Dr. Lackmann was a member of the Polarbjorn crew that would drift southward on the Polarbjorn from October 15, 1988 to Christmastime.

Dr. Lackmann shared slides of his arrival in Tromoso, and the still open sea. He remarked how the Gulf Stream allowed the sea to remain un-iced and liquid precipitation would still fall. From Tromoso they flew to Lonyearbyen, a coal town, to meet the rest of the crew. From there, they flew to the Polarbjorn, already moored in ice. The plane landed on a runway made on the ice flows.

Dr. Lackmann share photos of the Polarbjorn, an ice reinforced ship - not an ice cutter, the hospitable Norwegian crew, wildlife encountered, and the equipment and meteorology on the ice flows. Dr. Lackmann noted that 'diamond dust', precipitation that falls from a clear sky as very small ice crystals often so tiny they appear to be suspended, was ever present. The hexagonal plates that comprise the dust can orient horizontally and act as a prism. As a result, they often observed moon dogs, and had to frequently dust off radiation sensors. Dr. Lackmann then showed us his collection of photos of aurora he had observed, and discussed the development of auroras.

Due to an active synoptic pattern, that brought many strong snowstorms, equipment, such as the SODAR had to be dug out and the Polarbjorn drifted from its intended course. Instead of passing to the west of Kvitoya, the ice flow passed to the east of the island, close to Russian territory. Also during this active pattern, a particularly strong storm caused the ice to shift, lifting the boat up and caused it to list 20°. The flow then broke, separating the ship from most of the equipment, including the huts used by the oceanographers, instrument towers and the SODAR. The two flows then surged back together, grinding several instruments and the runway.

Most of the meteorological equipment, including the SODAR, was later rescued. However, the ship soon found itself in the midst of a quite patter, leaving nearly stationary, and stuck for the Christmas holiday. The ship broke free after the New Year, and Dr. Lackmann returned to the US.

There was a pause at this point for questions, and then Dr. Lackmann continued his story, with his return to the Polarbjorn in April/May of 1989. The main difference between this second trip and the first was it was now spring, the time of midnight sun, and they now had a helicopter for use in the experiment. Dr. Lackmann shared photos of the sea and different sea ice patterns as well as sea smoke.

Dr. Lackmann concluded by summarizing how much the experience meant to him personally, as well as the scientific conclusions of the experiment. The floor was open to questions at 8:45, with the meeting being adjourned at 8:50.---Bebhinn A. Do.


CHICAGO

December 2004 Meeting

Mr. Jon Davis, Chief Meteorologist for the Chesapeake Energy Corporation Risk Management Team, provided a presentation titled "Winter Outlook 2004-2005; Chicago, the Midwest and the Nation" at the December 2004 meeting of the Chicago Chapter of the American Meteorological Society.

Energy risk management is concerned with cooling demand, heating demand and tropical weather impacts. The key areas for energy risk management are the west coast and from Chicago to the east coast.

Hurricane Ivan had a huge impact on North American energy. Had Ivan come ashore further west, the impact on natural gas would have been catastrophic. Wave action from Ivan damaged pipelines. Fifty foot waves were verified by buoys. Eighty foot waves were estimated by models.

Ivan related energy loses included 35 million barrels of crude oil and 150 billion cubic feet of natural gas. Repairs in to Gulf rigs have not been completed, so loses continue to grow.

When predicting winter temperatures, four main variables are utilized. The four variables are the summer/winter relationship, solar activity, "pre season" snow cover and sea surface temperatures.

Summer/Winter relationship:

The summer of 2004 was cooler than normal for North America. Hudson Bay had a great deal of ice in July. A record fire season in Alaska helped reduce incoming solar radiation. Temperatures in the Midwest were well below normal. The western states and Florida were the only areas in the United States that had above normal temperatures.

Nationally, of the 10 coolest summers since the 1950's, the winters that followed have produced 6 with below normal temperatures, 2 with normal temperatures and 2 with above normal temperatures. Typically, winter temperatures following the coolest summers have been the coldest on the east coast and the southeast.

Solar Activity

The eleven year solar cycle was considered. Cold winters usually occur during the low end of the solar cycle. We are now going into the low side of the cycle for the next three to five years. The east coast in particular is normally cold during this part of the cycle.

Snow Cover

Northern Asia had extensive early season snow cover leading into the winter of 2004-2005. Canada also had good snow coverage in early December. This would generally lead to a colder than normal winter.

Sea Surface Temperatures

Five important areas exist for considering sea surface temperatures. They are:

  1. Equatorial Pacific (El Nino, La Nina)
  2. Pacific Tongue - Japan to the Dateline
  3. North Pacific and North Atlantic
  4. Atlantic Tropical area - Africa to northern South America
  5. Indian Ocean
For extreme El Nino or La Nina events, one would normally predict above normal temperatures in the United States. Currently, a weak El Nino exists which would be conducive to a cold winter.

When the Pacific Tongue is cold, you would expect a cold bias.

A warm Indian Ocean would lead to below normal temperatures in the United States.

Three of the five Sea Surface Temperature indicators would predict a cold winter for the U.S.

The years most similar to what appears to be in place for the 2004-2005 winter were:

1963-64 - Cold in the east and south, normal in the midwest.

1977-78 - Extremely cold in the eastern 2/3 of the United States.

2002-03 - Cold in the east, normal in the midwest and warm in the west.

All three of the above winters had warm Novembers. November 2004 temperatures were well above normal across much of the United States. Statistically however, November temperatures have no correlation to winter temperatures.

The four winter outlook variables produce the following predictive results:

Winter 2004-05
  1. Cold Summer - Cold Winter
  2. Solar Activity - Normal to Cold
  3. Snow Cover - Normal to Cold
  4. Sea Surface Temperatures - Normal to Cold
Expect colder than normal temperatures from Chicago to the east coast, with temperatures being colder the further east you go. The region from Denver to Chicago should experience normal temperatures, with colder temperatures being experienced the further east one goes in that region. From Denver to the west coast, temperatures should be slightly above normal.

Precipitation anomalies that existed during the years most similar to 2004-05 listed above (1963-64, 1977-78 and 2002-03) indicate above normal precipitation in the east, dry in the midwest and normal in the west.---Mark T. Carroll.


COOK COLLEGE - RUTGERS UNIVERSITY

Last Meteorology Club Meeting of the Fall 2004 semester: ENR 223 on December 9, 2004

---Ariana Shah.


FLORIDA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Florida Tech Student Chapter Holds Disaster Relief Drive for Hurricane Victims



Melbourne, FL - The students of the Florida Institute of Technology Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (FITSCAMS) experienced first hand the devastation of Hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Jeanne. On Tuesday, October 26th the chapter joined together with the Florida Tech community and a local restaurant to raise money to support the American Red Cross Hurricane Relief Fund. The restaurant agreed to donate a portion of the night's profits if over 100 people came to the restaurant during that evening. The event was a huge success with over 120 people, including local radio personalities, coming out to support the relief effort. FITSCAMS was able to raise over $200 for The American Red Cross.---Jennifer Bewley.


HOUSTON

Our December 9th meeting was held at Universal-Impact Weather outside of Hobby Airport. The guest speaker was Dr. Larry Carey from The Texas A&M University's Department of Atmospheric Science. The main theme of the meeting was how the study of lightning polarity can aid in determining the mesoscale environment of a storm. During the International H20 Project (IHOP) with Mr. Kurt M. Buffalo. Dr. Carey studied the environmental control of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning polarity in severe storms. In research, 90-95 % of CG lightning was negative in polarity while a strip of positive polarity was found along a narrow line extending from the Texas Panhandle to Minnesota; or through many of the areas most likely effected by severe weather as defined by ¾" or larger diameter hail, straight line wind speeds of 58 mph or greater, and/or tornadoes. The hypothesis of this study: 'Could the frequency of CG lightning, whether positive or negative, predict a storm's kinematic structure?'

The relationship of CG lightning to the environmental conditions lead to discovery that polarity could suddenly change over in the presence of severe weather. For example, in studying an August 1990 Plainfield, IL storm that produced an F-5 tornado, Seimon (1993) documented a sudden diametric switch from a positive charge path leading up to the tornado to a path of negative charge once the tornado dissipated. Another topic of research was the climatology of the typically anomalous positive charge in the CG lightning (> 25%) linked to reports of large hail and tornado events across the U.S. Midwest. These 'positive storms' can be attributed to stronger updrafts which enhance higher liquid water content through a deeper column of the cloud; creating a highly electrified environment of supercooled droplets and ice crystals within the -10 °C and -40 °C layer. These intense updrafts ultimately create a positively charged environment as higher liquid water contents in positive storms lead to the positive charging of graupel and hail via non-inductive charging mechanisms, an enhanced lower cloud positive charge, and increased frequency of positive CG lightning.

Another connection may be made with CG polarity in relation to the Te ridge. Studies have found that polarity switches from positive to negative as storms cross over the ridge axis; or as parcels move from the dry side of the Te ridge to the downstream moist tongue region. The severe weather parameters of CAPE and Storm Relative Helicity, along with the warm cloud depth were compared to the means of CG polarity. CG polarity of 'boundary-crossing storms' showed a positive CG enhancement by increasing low level shear (0-3 km), thus creating stronger (possibly rotating) updrafts and higher water ingestion into the storm, along with a more shallow warm layer depth (cloud base-LCL to 0 °C isotherm-freezing level), which reduces the effectiveness of warm precipitative processes, such as collision & coalescence, and hence increases cloud water available at supercooled temperatures for cloud electrification.

The overall results in Dr. Carey's and Mr. Buffalo's studies were that deeper, warmer clouds exhibited more negative-charge & colder clouds, with higher instability and rotational indices, displayed more positive-charge characteristics. In summary, this understanding of enhanced positive-charge CG lightning within a storm could be an advantageous in the short term forecasting of determining a storm's severity.---Patrick Blood.


IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

AMS Meeting Minutes - 12/2/04
General Email List: isuams@iastate.edu
Officer Email List: amsofficers@iastate.edu
AMS Homepage: www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams

Treasurer Update
Within a few dollars of $1000

Forecast Contest Updates
First Snow-Ames officially got 1.1" on 29th of November. Half of the pot will go to Karen Tarara and John Baranick. Congratulations!
AMS-There is no new information to report. The contest just continues.
NCWFC-We are in the middle of forecasting for New York City. Hoquiam results are up. Keep up the great work. Look for an email from Janet soon.

Fundraiser Update
We will start our hot chocolate sale in late January or early February. Look for more information from Janet next semester.

Social Events
NWA Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference-This conference will occur in the Springtime. This is a great opportunity to learn about research in tornadoes, winter weather, flash floods, and much more. There will also be a storm chase video night. Registration cost will be $65, not including hotel, but this is a great opportunity to learn and make contacts. Look for more information later. A new event this year will be an Alumni Luncheon on Saturday, April 2nd. The cost will only be about $5 thanks to the department paying half and AMS paying some of the cost.

Intramurals-The water basketball team got to championships, but sadly lost. Basketball also sadly lost their championship game. There will be no new intramurals this semester. Look for emails from Elise about new intramurals starting next semester. Email Elise (elisevj@iastate.edu) before finals week if you would like to do 5 player basketball (girls are especially welcome). Look up rec services if you are interested in what intramurals are coming up.

The are no new social events planed for this semester, but look for fun activities coming next semester like tubing, girls slumber party, and much more.

Jesse Wartman (jwartman@iastate.edu) is incharge of a Secret Santa exchange. Email her if you are interested.

Spring Break Trip-Ideas include Huston, Tuscan, or Washington D.C area. Email Liz White (edw@iastate.edu) if you are interested or if you have any ideas. Nothing is set in stone as of yet.

National Weather Person's Day-Feburary 5th. Look for an email from Elise for more information on this event.

Cy's Eyes on the Skies Update
We had our last show of the semester last night. This included our new toy, live level two Doppler Radar! Email Kari (kkozak@iastate.edu) if you would like to join Cy's Eyes.

2005 AMS Annual Meeting Update
A group of AMS members are driving down to San Diego for the National AMS Meeting. They have asked for some gas money. This has been done in the past with other trips. They have asked for $100. A vote was taken and the motion was passed.

Offutt Air Force Base Update
This trip will take place Monday January 31st starting at 1pm. The group will leave around 9am. This event is free except for gas money. Email Bill (tubularb@iastate.edu) if you are interested before Holiday Break so that you can get security clearance. Look for an email from Bill later.

Apparel
Our order is in, but not picked up. Adam will pick up our order soon. Look for an email from Adam soon about distribution and such.

Scout It Out Philanthropy Presentation
Alpha Sigma Kappa is putting together a science day of over 100 girls where they will participate in many science activities. They were hoping that AMS would put together a presentation. This event will take place January 29th on campus between 8am and noon. Email Morgan Brown (mebrown@iastate.edu) if you are interested in helping AMS put together a presentation.

AMS Small Groups
Look for emails from your group leaders about activities.

Spring 2005 Events
Monday, January 31st, all day à Offutt Air Force Base public tour Thursday, February 17th, 7:00-9:00 pm à Roosevelt Elementary Science Night Talks (email Adam (ajkuban@iastate.edu) if you are interested)

Next Meeting: Tuesday, February 1st, at 7:30pm in the classroom.

Just in case you weren't here: we had a fire at one of our greenhouse by agronomy, so the fire alarm went off and we had to stand outside in the cold. I am actually writing and perfecting these minutes outside, in the cold. I hope you have enjoyed these minutes!---Janet Schenck.


KANSAS CITY

The Kansas City Chapter of the AMS wound up 2004 by holding a holiday get together on December 18th at the studios of WDAF Fox TV-4. Mike Thompson, Chief Meteorologist, and Joe Lauria, Meteorologist, hosted the event for chapter members. Members were given a tour of the Fox-4 Weather Center and were briefed by Mike and Joe on the forecast and audio-visual process required to prepare and present a weather forecast for broadcast. After the tour, members enjoyed refreshments in the newsroom of the station. This meeting marked a transition in the chapter officer ranks, with Bruce Thomas, national spokesperson for Midland All-Hazards Radio, taking over the helm as President. Tina Simpkin, former president of the chapter, accepted a new position in Indianapolis, and handed the reigns over to Bruce in November. Lisa Schmit continues as chapter treasurer and social planner and Suzanne Fortin continues as secretary.

The next meeting of the chapter tentatively is planned for Thursday, January 20, 2005 at the Aviation Weather Center in Kansas City. Members will have the opportunity to tour this NCEP center and gain knowledge on the process and scope of national and global aviation forecasting.

Finally, the chapter also tentatively plans to staff a table with NWS Pleasant Hill (EAX) at the Teachers Investigating Science Resources Expo, hosted by Science Pioneers, on Saturday, February 20th.---Suzanne Fortin.


PACKERLAND

Annual Holiday Meeting Minutes-December 14, 2004
The Holiday Inn City Centre in downtown Green Bay was the setting for the annual Packerland Chapter of the AMS holiday meeting. After some time for socializing, dinner was served, followed by the ever-popular prize raffle. This year, winners took home a beautiful framed and matted photo of the recent aurora event donated by fellow member Peg Zenko, a sheet of the recently released USPS cloud stamps, and a high quality weather alert radio. Congratulations to the winners.

Local chapter member, Dave Miller, of WFRV-TV in Green Bay presented an overview of his recent trip to the International Broadcasters Conference in Barcelona, Spain. It was very interesting and informative. Thanks to all who helped make the evening a success.

In chapter business, those who have not renewed their memberships are reminded to do so. Forms and details can be found at:

http://chapters.ametsoc.org/packerland/

Look for an announcement regarding future meetings via e-mail or on the web site soon. Happy Holidays to all!---Dale Walker.


TWIN CITIES

The Twin Cities Chapter of the American Meteorological Society met the evening of December 14, 2004, at the KSTP television studio in St Paul. The activities there included a short business meeting and a discussion of the operations of KSTP's weather department. About 30 members and guests attended.

During the business meeting the Eden Prairie Science Fest was discussed. This event will replace the normal January monthly chapter meeting. All members are encouraged to attend. At the fest will be representatives from the three National Weather Service offices in Chanhassen: The Twin Cities Weather Forecast Office (WFO), the North Central River Forecast Center, and the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, and representatives of our chapter will be staffing those tables there. Also, the National Weather Service will be participating in the Government Expo at the Mall of America in late January. The AMS will have handouts at each event promoting our chapter as a weather community. It was also mentioned that the WFO and the University of St. Thomas will be hosting the Northern Plains Convective Workshop in March.

Then, a discussion ensued with KSTP meteorologists Dave Dahl and Rob Koch. Dave and Rob recalled memorable storms from their tenure at KSTP and discussed their new "million-watt" radar. They also covered their severe weather operations. Dave and Rob described how they typically keep a close watch with upcoming events 2 to 3 days in advance. They have procedures as to how to they handle events both within and near the Twin Cities, mainly when to break in to television programming and how much, from a brief mention between program and commercial to "wall-to-wall" coverage.

A question and answer session followed and covered a variety of topics related to their new radar, severe weather, and general viewer comments. Then Dave and Rob gave a tour of their studio and computer center and continued to answer questions. After, the chapter was taken on a tour of other parts of the station.---Chris Bovitz.


UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS

Our last meeting of the semester was Wednesday, Dec. 1st.

-Main purpose of the meeting was to collect T-shirt orders.
-Over break everyone will collect weather related pictures for the Atmo window display.
-T-shirts will hopefully be ready before winter break.
- early next semester we will kick off the spring semester with a social event.---~Ashley VanAsdale.


WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

December Meeting Minutes


Chapter members in front of P3 "hurricane hunter" plane at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fl.


This is the cockpit of the WP-3D Lockheed Orions that are used in hurricane missions.


One of the 2 Lockheed WP-3D Orions - Two of the world's premier research aircraft, the renowned NOAA WP-3D Orions,
participate in a wide variety of national and international meteorological, oceanographic and environmental research.
---Andy Johnson.


 



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