Minutes of Meeting
19 April 2007
1. The seventh meeting for the 2006-07 season of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), Asheville chapter, was held on Thursday, 19 April 2007 in the Folk Art Center on the Blue Ridge Parkway near Asheville, North Carolina. It was called to order by the chapter president, Maj Paul Roelle. There were approximately 270 people in attendance.
Figure 1. Major Paul Rolle, Asheville NC local AMS Chapter President, talks with Sharon LeDuc, NCDC Deputy Director, prior to the AMS presentation.
2. The Asheville AMS chapter presented the monthly “Healthy Environmental Award” to the local organization promoting healthy environmental programs. The April award was presented to Mr Bill Phipps, plant manager for the Progress Energy power plant in Arden, NC, for the company’s effort to improve precious air quality. Mr Phipps told the crowd the first of the plant’s two smokestacks was converted last year, and the second smokestack had converted this year to much cleaner emissions. The conversions put the plant as the first in North Carolina to meet the state’s monumental 2002 Clean Smokestack Act. He stated the new smokestacks’ scrubbers emit 93% less SO2 and NOx’s than the older smokestacks. He also stated the company is continuing in it’s quest for cleaner fuel by experimenting with solar fuel cells in Florida. For their sound environmental stewardship Mr Phipps was presented with the local AMS chapter certificate.
3. The local Asheville AMS chapter continued it series focusing on climate change. This was the third of three talks in the series. This month’s speaker was Dr Thomas Karl, Director, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), in Asheville, North Carolina, who was introduced by Major Paul Roelle, the AMS local chapter president.
Figure 2. Dr Thomas Karl, Director, NCDC, addresses the Asheville AMS at the third in a series of climate change presentations.
4. Dr Karl titled his talk, “Modern Climate Change, an IPCC Perspective.” IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, sanctioned by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Dr Karl explained that the NCDC, Asheville, for which he is the Director, is the nation’s archive of the country’s weather records and some of the other nations’ paleo-climate records used to monitor and assess the climate. He also stated the organization was responsible for building an observation network that would monitor the climate.
5. Dr Karl stated the current road to get to the present IPCC findings and releases has been a long one. Publications were initially published in 1990, with a continuing stream since then. He stated the public often doesn’t understand the research and publication process will continue into the future.
Figure 3 This illustration shows some of the evolutionary research and publication performed by the IPCC.
6. Modeling the climate system tackles the problem of trying to integrate several complex environmental interactions, not completely understood. Another challenge is for current computing power to model each parameter (individually and collectively) at a scale that realistically captures the dynamics and interactions. He stated the most powerful computers can still only model down to approximately 100 nautical miles on a grid side on a worldwide scale. In response to a later question he did state the power of computers in 10 to 15 years would be more readily able to capture the required scales of 10 to 20 nautical miles.
7. Dr Karl also reiterated that although water vapor only constitutes 2% and carbon dioxide .04% of the atmosphere, they contribute mightily to greenhouse warming by heating up when absorbing solar radiation. At a higher temperature these molecules then reemit shorter wavelengths of infrared radiation, warming the atmosphere. The process is vital for life on planet Earth. Without this process in the past the average temperature of the Earth would be minus 5oF. With the presence of these emitting greenhouse gases in the atmosphere the average surface temperature is approximately 60oF. Therefore, the effect is necessary for life on earth as we know it. So what’s the problem? The problem is the significant increases in these greenhouse gases, largely caused by the industrialization of the world’s economy. The following figure graphs these increases. While sulfur emissions decrease the temperature, the other gases warm the air. Measurements of CO2 are well documented with the gas remaining in the atmosphere for long periods. NOx’s are not as well documented, but it also remains in the atmosphere for a long time. SOx measurements are also not as well documented, but it stays relatively short time in the atmosphere.
Figure 4. Historical measurements of various greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
8. Dr Karl then addressed some common misperceptions associated with the interest in global warming. For the local crowd, there was comment about the cold February in Asheville and the string of record cold temperatures in early April which wiped out much of the fruit and ornamental shrubs. He stated that as a whole, the past December through February experienced record warmth across the globe. The last 13 winters have experienced above average temperatures across the U.S. Short term cold snaps do not negate the long term warming. Another misperception within the scientific community was related to earlier studies which seemed to point to satellite data showing global cooling, not warming. He affirmed earlier studies had concluded this, but more data and improved satellite analysis now reveal significant warming at the surface and in the troposphere. Another argument promulgated was the impact of many measuring thermometers located close or in large cities which cause the data to be biased due to the heat island effect. Again, this argument is negated by the large number of measurements showing strong warming over the oceans, unaffected by the city heat, and measurements of decreasing snow and ice fields, both over land and in lakes and rivers. Paleo data from bore holes, tree rings, ice cores, etc. corroborate the lack of long term warming in the past, with recent data validating the warming in recent times.
9. Dr Karl continued with additional common misperceptions. Another relates the average warming Earth’s atmosphere to variations in the radiation from the sun. While there is some evidence that early 20th century warming may have been influenced by solar radiation, satellite measurements since the late 1970’s indicate no appreciable changes in solar output, even after accounting for the 11 and 22-year solar cycles. Another argument states the planet’s self-regulating thermostat (“iris” effect) will naturally counteract any warming due to man or natural causes. The theory states the redistribution of tropical clouds would allow more heat to escape into space as Earth warms. Both satellite and in-situ observations indicate the opposite.
10. Yet another postulation states the increase in industrial output will cause a related rise in atmospheric haze, blocking more sunlight. Some theories relate this potentially to atmospheric warming, others to cooling because of reflection of more incident radiation from the sun. A recent paper in “Science” shows the haze layer actually to be decreasing on a global scale. The recent causal effect postulates global warming based on more sunlight reaching the surface. However, the instrumentation to measure and integrate this data into the overall scheme is not well calibrated at this time, and more research must be performed to draw more meaningful conclusions.
Figure 5. Global haze measurements show a decrease, based on a recent study.
11. Another hypothesis states the ice sheets over the polar regions will melt slowly, thus the sea-level rise will occur slowly. The current IPCC projection is for 1 to 1 ½ foot rise in sea level by the end of the 22nd century. However, current melt rates enable more water to seep downward through the ice. The liquid interface between the bottom ice and the underlying land surface will probably lubricate the downward sloping land surface and cause the ice to flow into the ocean much faster than currently predicted. This enhanced effect is not in the IPCC projections.
Figure 6. Changes in glaciers and ice fields, discussed above.
12. There is a collaborative effort in the IPCC report from many of the world’s preeminent scientists stating we live in a warming world and human activities have likely contributed to it. See the following illustration. The graph on the right includes paleo-data for a much longer look into the past.
Figure 7. Observed changes.
13. The following graph attempts to relate observed changes in Earth’s temperature (in red) to model predictions of changes that are all naturally caused (“Mother Nature”), changes due to man (“anthropogenic”), and changes combining both effects. Included in these predictions are greenhouse gases, solar forcing, and sulfuric dioxide. The model using the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic forcing matches most closely the observed values. Many scientists are confident in these findings.
Figure 8. Modeled predictions from natural, man-caused, and combined effects versus the observed values of temperatures.
14. The following figure highlights several of the predicted world-wide changes. The observed is showed on the left ¾ of the graph, with the future predictions on the right. Differing emission scenarios and model uncertainties produce some wide variance in predicted temperature increases. Increases in worldwide average temperatures range from 2oC to 6oC by the end of the century. All of the predicted changes result in a significant change in life on Earth. The degree in which we cope will depend on the degrees of change in temperature.
Figure 9. Observed changes.
15. What are some of the other related weather impacts that will possibly affect the socio-economic and physical life on Earth with global rises in temperature? Average precipitation may not increase in all areas, but the amounts will likely come in larger “bursts”, i.e., floods.
Figure 10. Heavy precipitation
Figure 11. Warmer climates are more impacted than colder climates in extreme precipitation events. 100 climate regimes were studied to draw this conclusion.
16. The average number of tropical storms may or may not increase, but the number of higher intensity storms will likely increase. Higher temperatures will directly impact the El Nino and La Nina regimes in the Pacific Ocean, which are directly related to jet stream configurations and atmospheric vertical shears. These significant atmospheric parameters are then directly responsible for hurricane/typhoon formation, strength, and movement. Sea surface temperature increases over the equator regions also feed tropical storm formations. The Earth Simulator computers in Japan, using 12-13 nautical mile resolutions, have validated these cascading cause/effect relationships.
Figure 12. Tropical storm changes and projections.
Figure 13. Tropical storm changes and projections.
17. The same intensity increases are predicted for mid-latitude storms. This will impact precipitation rates, already discussed above. Winds will increase. And, stronger storms moving further north will cause more variability in the temperatures, especially in the spring and autumn. This is due to the fact that the stronger gradients will be more capable of dislodging cold air in the polar regions and pulling it southward as well as pushing more warm air northward (in the northern hemisphere). More significant arctic outbreaks may also be experienced for the same reason. Stronger coastal storms will also cause more beachfront erosion and inundations.
Figure 14. Mid-latitude storms.
18. With hotter temperatures evapotranspiration rates will increase and with weather pattern changes more droughts will possibly occur. Drought intensity and length may be directly affected.
Figure 15a. Drought observations.
Figure 15b. Drought observations.
19. The growing season will be also impacted in many locations. Cold season minimum temperatures are predicted to increase. This will allow the growing season to increase in many mid-latitude areas, but it will also put vegetation at greater risks due to earlier starts, making it more susceptible to late frost/freezing temperatures which will still occur as the strong mid-latitude storms sweep across the northern states in early to mid-spring, pulling cold air southward. We recently experienced this in March 2007 with very warm temperatures nurturing the vegetation to begin growth several weeks early. Then an early April deep low moving north of the Ohio River pulled record breaking cold far southward over much of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. Much of the fruit and ornamental crops were wiped out, with multi-million dollar loses in the economy.
Figure 16. Growing season predictions.
20. So, do scientists have the global warming issue “nailed down?” We’ve already discussed the incomplete understanding of several of the inter-related parameters which affect and are affected by warming. We’ve also seen that the parameterization of these elements is not precise due to lack of complete understanding and deficiencies in computing power in modeling at the necessary resolutions. Additionally, there are other factors which will impact the outcome. The volume of methane frozen in polar ice is unknown, as is the likely “thaw and release rate into the atmosphere.” The impact of polar and glacial ice melt is not yet well understood. Ocean circulation patterns due to temperature rises and the addition of fresh water from melting ice are also an unknown. The known, the recognized but currently unpredictable, and the yet-unidentified factors portend an unknown change of climate perturbations. Since climate is a non-linear system there is no way of knowing if there is a “safe” level of greenhouse gas concentrations. We only know the concentrations are now larger than observed over the last 500,000 years.
21. In concluding his talk, Dr Karl stated the vast majority of the scientific viewpoint is that human-caused global climate change has occurred. The exact future of what will happen, where it will happen, and how much it will happen still depends on many details. The confidence level varies with the individual parameters being studied. The integrated cause and effect still requires much study.
22. A question and answer period followed. One person inquired about the impacts on human health. Dr Karl stated the second IPCC report discusses changes in harmful insects, such as fire ants migrating northward. He also stated there are potential disease increases as mid-latitude and polar areas warm. There is much more detail in the report.
23. Another person inquired if there would be “winners” in increasing temperatures. Dr Karl stated some will experience less heating bills, fewer ice and snow days with resultant less traffic accidents in the cold season, and other positive impacts for a few decades.
24. In response to another question Dr Karl stated it would be like “betting against the house” to not expect and plan for climate change. Climate will be different and society will need to forecast and engineer for these changes to stay vibrant. He stated that the inclusion of climate and related engineering, sociology, studies in the education system will prepare students for the required future disciplines to prepare for this change. UNC at Asheville is adding a course “Climate and Culture” to its Masters of Liberal Arts Program this fall.
25. Another person asked what Russia was doing. Dr Karl stated that country was represented by respected scientists on the IPCC study. He did not delve what the government itself was doing.
26. Finally, a questioner asked the specific impacts to the southern Appalachians. Dr Karl reiterated the current computers and modeling are too coarse to narrow down predictions to a regional level at this time. However, he stated that within the larger picture it would be reasonable to anticipate warmer temperatures, more intense precipitation events, a longer growing season, less snow, and more frequent severe weather.
27. The talk concluded with Maj Roelle presenting Dr Karl with the AMS coffee mug in appreciation for his time and effort.---John D. Gray.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN UNIVERSITY
Meeting Date: April 3, 2007
Attendence: Chris Aliseo, Megan Babich, Jeraca Benson, Catherine Bodak, Christine Bukowski, Dan Burkhart, Chris Burling, Joe Ceru, Aric Cylkowski, Emily Daub, Katie Dupree, Michael Estime, Jennifer Flakes, David Hampton, Stacy Hare, Adam Hart, Andy Hatzos, Amanda Hazard, Mike Hesche, Annie Hoezee, Danielle Homrich, Kimberly Hoogewind, Brandon Hoving, Sarah Jensen, Stefanie Klimowicz, Rachel Kulik, Morris Langworthy, Kayla Moore, Ashley Morgan, Nathan Niedzwiecki, Kelsey Obenour, Jacob Owens, Cort Scholten, Chris Snider, Kailey Wass,
Meeting in Session: 9:04
President’s Report: Update from the mail: As an RSO, we can not force anyone to leave the club.
Vice President’s Report:
1. Public relations committee: We shall look into table tent add spaces for next semester that go on sale Friday the 13th, for advertising or recognition.
We voted for buying table tent space, which passed by a clear majority.
2. Fundraising: Yankee Candle forms are due today.
3. Jobs and Internships: New info has been posted on our board.
4. Activities: Bowling will be at Chippewa lanes. We will have reserved the Rotunda Room for the banquet on April 24, 2007, at 6:30. Our end of the year picnic is on the 28th.
We have in our accounts: Savings: $ 1330.94 Checking: $ 35.11
Secretary’s Report: The attendance sheet is passed around.
SGA Report: The student body election results are in, and elections are now over with.
WebMaster: The WebMaster has created some new forums, to be used for committees.
Conferences: We’re back from Valpo. It was a great conference! Those who went should sign a thank-you card for Sara’s family.
Open Floor: We have a speaker coming April 16, at 3:00.
We need names of our graduating seniors, as well as an “rsvp” for the banquet.
Meeting Adjourned: 9:42
Meeting Date: April 17, 2007
Attendence: Chris Aliseo, Dave Anderson, Megan Babich, Meghan Bagnasco, Jeraca Benson, Catherine Bodak, Dan Burkhart, Chris Burling, Aric Cylkowski, Emily Daub, Michael Estime, Jennifer Flakes, David Hampton, Adam Hart, Andy Hatzos, Amanda Hazard, Mike Hesche, Annie Hoezee, Danielle Homrich, Kimberly Hoogewind, Brandon Hoving, Sarah Jensen, Stefanie Klimowicz, Rachel Kulik, Morris Langworthy, Kayla Moore, Nathan Niedzwiecki, Kelsey Obenour, Jacob Owens, Cort Scholten, Sara Strey, Kailey Wass,
Meeting in Session: 9:05
President’s Report: A card for Virginia Tech can signed by Thursday.
Thanks to all who visited Kevin’s presentation.
Vice President’s Report: Thanks to the committees for your hard work.
1. Public Relations: What is going on with: Mainstage? Table tents? Posters for Kevin were not made.
2. Fundraising: sold and raised $2800 $ 1127.34 respectively.
3. Jobs and Internships: nothing new
4. Activities: Spring Banquet is coming up. Food options include a sandwich wrap buffet, as well as other food. The banquet will be in the Rotunda room.
After road clean-up, we’ll have a picnic, so $75 for meat is voted on and passed.
We have in our accounts: Checking $35.11 Savings $ 2509.45
Secretary’s Report: Attendance sheet is passed around.
There were many visitors to SGA this week, unfortunately, they lost quorum.
Road cleanup is April 28 @ 12:00
Website will be purged.
We are considering the possibility of a summer get together, in order to plan for Mainstage.
Storm Ready Community
County High Pointers- Isabella County’s highest point, who wants to go?
CoCoRAHS- (learned at Valpo) try to get started in Michigan.
Meeting Adjourned: 9:40--- Annie Hoezee.
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
April 19, 2007
The meeting was called to order at 7:35 PM by President, Bebhinn Do.
The banquet will be held at the Cardinal Club May 4th. Three menu choices will be posted to the website shortly. Social hour 6:30-7:30, dinner at 7:30. You can print out the form from the website, fill out and send to Wyat with payment. The speaker will be Jay Barnes. The topic will be History of Hurricanes in North Carolina. He is coming from the coast and travel assistance will be made available from Paul Humphrey’s donation.
Treasurer’s report: As of 3/15/06 the balance is $5,228.59; of which $4,585.98 is operational and $642.61 is the Academic Achievement Fund. Total chapter assets to $11,167.48.
Minutes were read and approved. Sign in sheet was passed around.
George Bridgers gave Education report. Science fairs are complete. Thanks to judges Frankie Vann and Marvin Maddox. Several nominations have been submitted for Academic Achievement Awards. George is encouraged by the selections.
Bebhinn announced Education and Outreach, Web Master, and Treasurer positions are still open. John White nominated (Ed Schoenborn seconded) Frank Schiermeier for Treasurer. Frank accepted if he could be relieved of snack duty. It was discussed that the constitution states that if there is only one nomination for a vacancy the membership can vote by acclamation. The group voted by acclamation for the new board:
Chair: Bebhinn Do
Vice Chair: Gerald Watson
Treasurer: Frank Schiermeier
Secretary: Janice Godfrey
Education and Outreach and Web Master do not require vote and can be appointed at anytime. We will try to fill these two positions at the beginning of the next season.
New business: The Student Chapter of the AMS will be participated in Relay for Life, raising over $500.
George Bridgers brought up notion of lifetime membership dues. This protects member from dues increase and the money, instead of coming in a bit at a time, can be earning interest sooner and over a longer timeframe for the chapter.
An email from Dr. Peter Robinson was read:
“The Southeast Regional Climate Center, one of six national Centers providing climate services which complement those of the State Climate Offices and the National Climatic Data Center, officially moved from the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill on April 1, 2007. We are still implementing the move, and will be for several weeks. The Center will be housed in the Geography Department, with collaborative support from the Carolina Environmental Program. The State Climate Office at NCSU will provide electronic services for the Center. The Director is Peter Robinson, with Chip Konrad as Deputy Director. Ryan Boyles is the NCSU contact. A Service Climatologist is to be hired in the near future.”
It was announced that we would cover travel (gas and food) for banquet speaker, Jay Barnes. Lodging will not be necessary as he is staying with family in the area.
A brief discussion, initiated by Ed Schoenborn, was held on the plight of a few weather radio owners who complained that by the time they reach their weather radios after the alarm has sounded, the message is already half over. They suggested a delay between the alarm and the message or playing the message twice. The National Weather Service representatives in attendance said they could air the complaint, but there were reasons for the timing of the message, which had to do with getting the message to broadcast as soon as possible.
Dr. Watson introduced the night’s program, "The Raleigh NWS-NCSU Internship Course: The Centerpiece of a Dedicated Collaboration". Our speaker Dr. Gary Lackmann, Associate Professor, NC State University; with co-presenters: Kermit Keeter, former Science Officer at Raleigh NWS office; Dr. Allen Riordan, former meteorology professor, NCSU; Jonathan Blaes, current Science Officer at Raleigh NWS office; Brandon Vincent, current NWS forecaster, and coordinator of Intern Course.
The goal of this presentation is to share a perspective on a creative and somewhat unique collaborative activity that is conducted by the NWS Raleigh office, involving students from the NCSU meteorology program. Our presentation will start with a bit of history concerning the long-standing collaboration between NCSU and the NWS, including activities and collaborations leading up to the NWS-NCSU Internship Course. The course objectives and activities will be described, starting with the "application process" whereby students are interviewed and selected for the very limited enrollment in this class. Benefits to the collaboration will be described, including statistics on the number of former course participants now working in the NWS. We will conclude with a bit of philosophy concerning the broader implications of the course. Throughout, we hope to share images of current and past Intern Course activities.
Dr. Lackmann has been at NCSU since 1999, coming down from western NY, after growing up in Seattle and living in some other corners of the country.
The collaboration between NCSU and the Raleigh National Weather Service (NWS) goes back a long way. In the 1970s NWS’s John McClain and NCSU’s Walt Saucier started collaboration program, which included internships, seminars, and AMS meetings. Products developed included Forecast Aids: Winter Precipitation Type Study and Topography of a Flash Flood. In the 1980s came The GALE Project.
Most of the early collaboration involved graduate as opposed to undergraduate students. Dr. Roscoe Braham was very influential in fostering program, which helped to dispel insecurities and intimidations that might exist between forecasters and academia.
The Joint Severe Weather Collaboration began in the 1990s. It involved 38 students, 78 events, 277 hours, analysis of warnings and decision process, and documentation of the severe weather process. It greatly benefited both the students and the NWS.
The Coastal Flood Model was used during this time frame during a flooding event at Cape Hatteras. This was a model developed by a grad student that showed flooding from a particular hurricane event would mainly occur on the sound side of the island. This information gave the NWS forecasters information that they wouldn’t have otherwise had and it turned out to be good information.
Other projects included the Winter Precipitation Type Algorithm and ASCII: Coastal Cyclone Deepening Rates. NCSU definitely played a part in developing the culture of operational forecasting.
In the 2000s, projects have included the CSTAR list server, which is an email list serve that creates a forum for exchange of ideas; Cold Air Damning Climatology and Classification System; Coastal Front Climatology and Forecast Aids; Upstream Convection Research; and Radar studies, including development of a lightning detection algorithm. Dr. Lackmann briefly described a five-step process used to take something from the research stage to the operational stage.
In October 2006 the NWS hosted an open house for NCSU students in which 42 students attended.
The NWS has helped NCSU meteorology students and faculty in countless ways to include:
Teaching courses, reviewing projects, guest lecturing, professional development, funding opportunities, making thesis projects more useful, improved forecasting, graduating applicants to the NWS have increased due to the collaboration, and graduates have a good placement rate within the NWS.
The New Intern Course is a way to reach more students. Students all gain consistent structured experience. The program accepts 5-8 students per semester. Students must write a statement giving their reasons for wanting to take the course and go through an interview process. The course is a two-credit course that meets 2 hours each week.
The course goals are to give students a sense of contribution, have students rotate through the various duties, and gain early exposure to the NWS. Activities include job shadowing, forecasting, site visits (radar and ASOP), and shift work. The course is open to graduate students, as well as, undergraduates. Requirements include good interpersonal communication skills and an interest in a career in weather forecasting.
Duties include: hand analysis of weather maps, NOWcasting, job shadowing, performance of hydrometeorological duties, and various outreach opportunities. One of the course requirements is that you keep a succinct journal of what you did and what you learned.
Since 1995 18 students have hired on to the NWS after their completion of the course. Interns delivered glowing recommendations of the course. To find out more you can go to: www.meas.ncsu.edu/nws
Ending thoughts were that we should all do what we can to continue to nurture this unique relationship now and in the future. Kermit Keeter asked that incomers to the program think about what they can give back to continue to make the collaboration something special.
VP, Jerry Watson, closed the meeting by expressing his pleasure at such a good turnout. Meeting attendance in general has been a concern of the officers. Jerry also requested that members let him know of potential meeting programs/speakers for next season.
Meeting adjourned at 9:10 PM.---Janice Godfrey.
Jeremy Grams, Secretary
Thursday, 4:30 PM, April 19, 2007
National Weather Center (NWC) in Norman, OK
Oklahoma City Bombing Anniversary
President Patrick Burke began the meeting with a brief discussion on the 12th anniversary of the OKC bombing which killed 168 people. He mentioned that a tornado watch was issued for south-central Oklahoma that afternoon and a line of thunderstorms hampered rescue efforts. A moment of silence was then observed for victims of the bombing and for the recent tragedy in Virginia. Vice-President Amy Gardner mentioned she attended the annual commemoration earlier in the day in Oklahoma City.
Recap of March 15th Meeting
Jeremy gave a quick recap of the March 15th meeting which included presentations on NWS polygon warnings, the enhanced Fujita scale, visitors from the Iowa State University student AMS chapter, and going out for pizza after the meeting.
Recap of OUSCAMS April 3rd Meeting
Patrick provided a recap of COCAMS representation at the most recent University of Oklahoma student AMS chapter meeting on April 3rd. Patrick, Amy, and Treasurer Kit Wagner had an informal dialogue with students discussing what COCAMS does. It was agreed that both chapters would cross-advertise events on their respective web sites. Meredith Bratton, the OUSCAMS freshman representative, displayed two types of t-shirts in a fundraising effort for their chapter. The t-shirts were sold to COCAMS members for $10 each.
Recap of Oklahoma State Science and Engineering Fair on March 30th
Patrick and Kit attended the 2007 OSSEF in Ada, OK on March 30th. They judged projects related to earth and atmospheric science. They awarded two weather radios to junior high student projects that dealt with global climate change. Although the projects were not rigorously scientific, the students explained what they did, discussed core concepts related to the topic, and future work. COCAMS also presented two AMS certificates to high school student projects. One of the high school students worked with NCAR and MIT on modeling a potential way to weaken hurricanes. Patrick explained that the project involved using five barges full of liquid nitrogen to create a heat sink. The result was an intensity change from a category 5 hurricane to a category 3 at one grid point for a couple of hours. The other high school student project involved modeling streamflow.
Kit announced that we ended the 2006-2007 chapter year with 35 paid members. Our account balance was $10334. This was primarily raised from portions of the sale of "Storms of 2004/2005" DVDs and the annual National Severe Weather Workshop.
Kit mentioned the year-end chapter BBQ will be held Thursday, May 10th from 6 to 8 pm at the Andrews Park pavilion in Norman. All COCAMS members eat free, $5 per guest.
Patrick brought up the idea of having a meeting or two during the traditional summer break, most likely in July. He said that it might be easier to hold summer meetings since most of the members were housed in the NWC.
The election committee which consisted of Amy, Kit, and Jeremy announced the nominations for the 2007-2008 chapter officers. Since no new nominations were provided by the membership, all current officers were nominated for another year of service. The following slate of officers was unanimously approved by the membership for the 2007-2008 chapter year:
President: Patrick Burke
Vice-President: Amy Gardner
Treasurer: Kit Wagner
Secretary: Jeremy Grams
Storm Chaser/Meteorology Trivia
A 16-question trivia quiz was given to the membership. The grand prize of a "Storms of 2006" DVD was given to Kevin Scharfenberg. Three storm chaser kits consisting of a disposable camera, mug, and $10 gas card were given to Greg Stumpf, Dave Andra, and Alex (2nd through 4th place, respectively). Two OUSCAMS t-shirts were given to additional 4th place winners: Steve Corfidi and Bob Johns.
Amy spoke on the after-meeting dinner planned at Willows restaurant inside the Riverwind Casino in Norman. The steak buffet would cost $12.95 per person. She also mentioned she was thrilled to see a number of OU students attending the meeting today.
Bob Johns, COCAMS member and retired Storm Prediction Center meteorologist, presented: "Parts of the 1925 Tri-State Tornado Project: Details of the damage path, storm-scale information, and some personal issues concerning this historical event." Bob has been working as part of a team of meteorologists (Doswell, Crisp, Maddox, Hart, Burgess, Gilmore, and Piltz) on the 1925 Tri-State Tornado Project for 2 1/2 years. They are planning to finish gathering data by the end of this summer about the event that resulted in 695 deaths. In recent years, meteorologists have questioned whether this was one long track tornado with a path length of 219 miles, or a series of tornadoes associated with the same supercell. The project has involved traveling from county to county to find out the details about where damage occurred all across each county. In a story published in the 1960s, it was explained that the tornado occurred on the front side of the associated storm. To find more details about the nature of the storm, they have been interviewing people about what they saw as the storm passed by where they were located. Also, given the era of the 1920s, they have learned how people were affected in different ways from the storm than would occur currently.--- Jeremy Grams.
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
April 2007 meeting with Bill Proenza, Director of the National Hurricane Center
The April 11, 2007 meeting of the DC-AMS was called to order at 6:50 p.m. at the new Rockville Library in Rockville, Maryland. Before introducing the featured speaker, Jason Samenow made announcements regarding the upcoming DC-AMS election, the May meeting, the science fair banquet, and the scholarship available to a graduating high school senior. The election will feature two competitive races, for Chair and Vice-Chair; information will be sent to DC-AMS members via email. The next meeting of the DC-AMS will be held at the offices of the American Association for the Advancement of Science on May 23, and will feature Brigadier General Lawrence Stutzriem, Director of U.S. Air Force Weather. Mr. Samenow reminded DC-AMS members of the science fair banquet in June, and the $2000 scholarship for which students can currently apply.
Next, Michael Fortune introduced National Hurricane Center Director, Bill Proenza. Mr. Proenza was a former officer of the DC-AMS in the early 1970s, at about the time he started his career with the National Weather Service. From 1998 to 2007, he was the Director of the National Weather Service Southern Region. He assumed his position with the National Hurricane Center in January 2007.
Mr. Proenza began his presentation with an emphasis on the challenges of warning and predicting storms, and the insufficient funding that is currently available to the National Hurricane Center. He showed the audience a map of hurricane tracks along the East Coast from 1851 to 2005, which demonstrated that few areas in the region have been spared. The number of major Atlantic hurricanes has been trending upward since the mid 1990s—tropical cyclones alone have constituted nearly 40 percent of costly weather disasters in this period. Fifty-three percent of the American population lives within 50 miles of the coastline, and this number grows by 7 million people each year. This new influx of coastal residents means that many people have not lived near the ocean long enough to have experienced a tropical storm or hurricane.
Whether or not the storm outlook is below average, residents should be prepared for a disaster. As an example, Mr. Proenza discussed Hurricane Andrew, the first named storm of the 1992 hurricane season, which did not occur until August of that year. He also emphasized that tropical storms have the potential to incur severe damage. In 2001, Hurricane Allison hit Houston, Texas, causing extensive flooding and claiming lives.
Mr. Proenza showed a map of the regions covered by the National Weather Service’s 122 Weather Forecast Offices and 13 River Forecast Centers. This model was used when designing the hurricane warning center. They work together during storms, with the local offices issuing warnings and calculating the local storm surge. In 2004, a local forecast office picked up Hurricane Charlie’s slight turn to the right on their local radar and immediately informed the Hurricane Center of the shift.
The 2006 hurricane season was unusually quiet, with only 5 hurricanes despite sea surface temperatures that were the second warmest since the 1930s. Alberto and Ernesto were the biggest storms, Ernesto causing most of the damage and the only casualties of the season. The track guidance for Ernesto showed it going into the Gulf of Mexico even until some of the final model runs just before it turned to the north and tracked over Florida. Mr. Proenza used this instance to demonstrate the importance of human forecasting. Other storms that formed in the Atlantic stayed out to sea and curved toward Europe, with the remnants of some storms even impacting parts of Spain, Portugal, and the British Isles. The last storm was in October 2006, marking one of the earliest closures of a hurricane season on record.
For storms at sea, the QuickScat satellite gives wind vectors which are crucial for forecasting intensity changes. The satellite, which is currently used for warnings, forecasts, and models, has no scheduled replacement. As it enters its 8th year of operation, it has already exceeded its expected lifetime of 3 to 5 years. Although track forecasting is getting better, the loss of the QuickScat satellite with no planned replacement impedes improvement.
Mr. Proenza concluded his presentation with a brief discussion of the role of El Niño in the past hurricane season, and the possibility of a more active 2007 hurricane season now that El Niño has dissipated. The official NOAA/NWS outlook will come out May 22nd.
Questions and answers that followed the presentation further discussed the challenges of securing funding through Congress, Mr. Proenza’s childhood mentorship from the first director of the National Hurricane Center, and his concerns for future disasters. Amongst these concerns is a hurricane like the 1935 Labor Day storm that hit the Florida Keys, in which a tropical storm intensified into one of the most intense hurricanes of the 20th century in less than 48 hours. In addition to the Florida Keys, many areas along the Atlantic coast could experience devastation if a storm strikes. Mr. Proenza listed Jacksonville and Tampa/St. Petersburg, Florida, as well as the Northeast metropolitan area as places that have not experienced a significant storm recently and may be vulnerable in the future.
Mr. Proenza’s PowerPoint presentation is available on www.hurricanes.gov under “Message from the Director.”
The April meeting of the DC-AMS concluded at 8:10 pm.---Alan Cohn.
April 18, 2007
Nineteen members came from far and wide to gather in Phillipsburg, KS at the Frisky Brisket golf course club. We met in the dining room at 11:30 AM, enjoyed a period of lunch and visiting, and then reconvened in a lower room for a presentation. John Stopkotte/ SOO from North Platte, NE, briefed the group on an unusual “Anticyclonic Tornado near Rushville, NE on June 20th, 2006.” This was a left moving storm, which normally would not have developed into a tornado, but moved into an environment favorable for anticyclonic rotation. John stressed that this does not fit any of our conceptual models, and takes a different approach (looking upside down) to recognize these potentially dangerous storms.
Call to order. The meeting was called to order at 12:15 PM. Secretary Tim Burke/DDC read the minutes from the previous meeting on 01/24/07; accepted as read.
Treasurer’s report. Treasurer Matt Masek/LBF sent a report in his absence, which Christina Henderson reported. The previous balance of $1551.81 had deposits of $1017.37 from dues and scholarship donations, for a current balance of $2569.18. Of this balance, $690.00 is earmarked for the Jim Johnson Scholarship, leaving a “usable” balance of $1879.18.
Old Business. The Jim Johnson Scholarship committee, made up of a representative from each NWS office in the chapter, met to discuss the judging process. Four applications had been received, and each committee member was a given copy of all the applications. A winner will be selected by May 1st.
New Business. The 11th High Plains conference will be held August 16th and 17th, Thu/Fri in Hastings, Nebraska at Hastings College. There may be a meeting on the Wednesday afternoon prior (Aug 15th), designed for NWS personnel to exchange ideas. Three hotels have been reserved, with 50 rooms blocked off for conference attendees. Keynote speakers thus far include Jon Davies from Wichita, and Ron Przybylinski/SOO from the St. Louis NWS office. Presenters are encouraged to submit a paper, and our conference is known for its friendliness, especially toward first time presenters. More information will soon be on our Chapter webpage: www.highplains-amsnwa.org . It was announced that a HP Chapter member, Jon Finch from Dodge City, has been invited to be the guest speaker at the Kansas City AMS meeting on May 15th. Jon will present a talk on the 50th Anniversary of the deadly (F5) Ruskin Heights Tornado, May 20, 1957.
Adjournment. The meeting adjourned at 1:25 PM. The next meeting will be the end of June, and members will be notified of the date and location.---Rick Ewald and Tim Burke.
IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
Meeting Minutes – April 17th, 2007
Root beer floats were provided for everyone. Thanks for a great year!
Treasurer Update – Lisa Stewart
-We have $1700 in account right now, but that number will go down as a few receipts are turned in.
-Everyone who went to conference had to write their name and summer address on sheet of paper that was passed around. Email Lisa (email@example.com) with your info if you were not able to attend the meeting, otherwise you will not receive your reimbursement money for the conference!
Social Chair Update – Jesse Wartman
-None of our teams won t-shirts for intramural bowling.
-We had a good time with softball as well but didn’t earn any t-shirts there either.
- The C4/C6 tour will be on April 26th. The tour will last approximately 30 minutes. Meet in room 1620 in Howe Hall 5-10 prior to your tour time. Also, bring student ID just in case. The schedule is listed below:
-There are many fun events around campus this week. Be sure to take advantage of some of them!
-The AMS Spring picnic will be on Saturday, April 28th from 5 p.m. until whenever we decide to leave! A sign-up sheet was passed around for meat preferences as well as to sign up to bring another food item.
-Come to Coldstone Creamery at 7 p.m. Thursday! (Unofficial AMS event)
Academic Chair Update – Kaj Johnson O’Mara
-Finals are coming up, please try and do well!
-Study in a quiet place, but don’t over-study.
-Study what you don’t know, not what you DO know : )
Cy’s Eyes Update – Kaj Johnson O’Mara and Scott Lincoln
-Many problems at last night’s show which were out of our control.
-The senior show is tomorrow (Wednesday) and it is the last show of the year!
-Justin Schultz and Jason Patton are next year’s producers!
WxChallenge Update – Jayson Prentice
-There are 8 people left in our local bracket.
-Jayson finished in 65th overall, 1 shy of the national tournament!
Iowa Forecast Contest – Jon Hobbs
-The top three forecasters are actually people (instead of a model), led by Chris Schaffer.
-The contest will continue into the summer.
Apparel and Window Clings – Liz White
-Liz did not receive a phone call about the t-shirts today. Hopefully they will call soon.
-You will not receive your shirt until you pay Liz.
School talk –Edwards Elementary
-Two talks; Thursday, April 19, 10:30-11:15 and 11:15-11:55 a.m.
-There will be 30-40 kids, and we need people to go in and talk to them about severe weather and severe weather safety.
Ham Radio Licensing – Jayson Prentice
-The test will be on Saturday, April 28th at 9:30 a.m.
-There will be a study session THIS Thursday at 5 p.m. in classroom.
-Our new tornado machine is ready!
-Instead of being at Cy’s Big Top we will be at the LAS tent on Central Campus.
-Help is needed for set-up, tear down and manning the booth 9-5ish. Email Justin (firstname.lastname@example.org) if you would like to help.
-This will take place on Saturday, May 5 at 9 a.m. (Graduation Day!) in the conference room.
-Feel free to invite your family.
-There will be a slideshow running, so submit any pictures to Justin or Liz.
Historian’s Year in Review – Jeff Edmondson
-Jeff created a slideshow showcasing all that our chapter has done this year. Thank you Jeff!
We held elections for 2007-2008 school year. Officers for 2007-2008 school year are:
President: Chris Conoan
Vice President: Rachel Butterworth
Treasurer: Bree Sullivan
Secretary: Brandon Engelson
Social Chair: Jayson Prentice
Historian: Jeff Edmondson
Webmaster: Ben Schwedler
Academic Chair: Chris Schaffer
Thanks for a wonderful year everyone. Good luck on finals and have an excellent summer! The first cabinet meeting for next year will be sometime in August!
AMS Meeting 4/17/07
Our treasury balance as of 4/17/07 is $1014.71. Due to this high amount this meal was cheaper than it would have been to eliminate some of the excess funds. Julie won the snowfall contest and was awarded a weather radio. Evan and Joe went to the science fair at Union Station to judge the weather science fair projects. Ashley won the award and will hopefully attend our final AMS meeting this May. Our final meeting will be on May 19th as we honor those affected by the Ruskin Heights Tornado in May 20, 1957. This meeting will have survivor stories from those who directly experienced this tragic event. Exact location and time will be emailed at a later time.
Next year’s officers will remain the same with Mike Hudson as your President, Noelle Runyan as your Vice-President, Lisa Hill as your secretary and Evan Bookbinder as your treasurer.
OU/CIMMS & NSSL
Subject: Polarimetric Radar
Mike Hudson (right) and Terry Schuur (left)
Dual Polarization radar advantages include: more accurate rainfall estimates, better identification of non meteorological targets and eliminates them, and it will also have an improvement in radar data. This will also improve NEXRAD products such as super resolution, range and velocity ambiguity mitigation and spectral processing. This radar may be put into use as early as 4-7 years from now.
Phased array radar is a partnership between many organizations such as the government, academia & industry. A few of those participating include: NOAA, NWS, NSSL, ONR, Navy, OU, FAA, BCI, OK State Regents, Lockheed Martin. Phased array will have 4 non rotating plates with each plate containing 4,352 transmitting and receiving elements. Some of the benefits include: beam transmits from a stable base (no movement), the radar can focus on a specific return and if one transmitter goes down you have 4, 351 still remaining (less interruption in data). Phased array radar will make it’s debut sometime after 2020.
More data collection is still needed before this may be put into practical use, in the meantime there is an organization called CASA (collaborative adaptive of remote sensing the atmosphere) that is putting gap filling radars in places in order to receive more data. These radars are low powered devices and are partially funded by the National Science Foundation.--- Lisa Hill.
LYNDON STATE COLLEGE
LSC GBM Minutes 4-11-07
Ryan welcomed the club into the meeting at 6:35pm. There were 57 people in attendance. Ryan reminded everyone of the event with Plymouth on April 28th from noon to 5pm at Plymouth. He then told everyone how the elections were going to be run. Roberts Rules of Order: Someone needs to nominate a candidate, someone needs to second the nomination, and then the candidate has to accept the nomination. A person needs 50% plus 1 to win and there will be a revote if that doesn’t happen. If there is a tie, an immediate revote will take place. Elections for the next executive board are as follows:
Chris Arsenault nominates Matt Clegg, Cathy Bagarella 2nd, Matt accepts. Bryan Shaw nominates Greg Dutra, Mike St. Laurent 2nd Greg declines. Wendy nominated Steve LaVoie, Karen Sague 2nd, Steve accepts. Meghan Payne nominates Hayley LaPoint, Adam Rutt 2nd, Hayley accepts. Open floor to candidates. Questions from club to candidates. Club voted. Steve LaVoie is President.
Mike St. Laurent nominates Mike Swan, Greg Dutra 2nd, Swan accepts. Karen Sague nominates Hayley LaPoint, Adam Rutt 2nd, Hayley declines. Greg Dutra nominates Andrew Little, Cathy Bagarella 2nd, Andrew declines. No vote, Mike Swan Wins
Mike Lichniak nominates Alex Jacques, Rachel Domings 2nd, Alex accepts. Jim Politis nominates Joe Reedy, Karen Sague 2nd, Joe declines. Greg Dutra nominates Tracy Anketell, Steve LaVoie 2nd, Tracy declines. No vote, Alex wins.
Adam Rutt nominates Hayley LaPoint, Jen Pfeffer & Steve LaVoie 2nd, Hayley accepts. Matt Clegg nominates Mike Lichniak, Alex Jacques 2nd, Mike accepts. Steve Glazier nominates Eric Guillot, Bryan Shaw 2nd, Eric declined. Open floor to candidates. Questions from the club to candidates. Club voted. Hayley LaPoint wins.
Eric Guillot nominates Rich Maliawco, Matt Conklin 2nd, Rich accepts. No Vote, Rich wins.
Alex Jacques nominates Josh Redinger, Mike Lichniak 2nd, Josh accepts. Mike St. Laurent nominates Josh Kidd, Joe Reedy 2nd, Josh accepts. Brian Decicco nominates Joe Reedy, Karen Sague 2nd, Joe declines. Bryan Shaw nominates Mike Lichniak, Kathryn Mozer 2nd, Mike declines. Matt Conklin nominates Chris Arsenault, no second. Open floor to candidates. Questions from club to candidates. Club voted. Josh Redinger wins.
Kristen Anderson nominates Scott Jaeger, Rachel Domings 2nd, Scott accepts. Hayley LaPoint nominates Joe DiTomasso, Nick Barnets 2nd, Joe accepts. Todd Lanouette nominates Alex Lataille, Andrew Bond 2nd, Alex declines. Brian Decicco nominates Nick Barnets, Hayley LaPoint 2nd, Nick declined. Open floor to candidates. Questions from club to candidates. Club voted and Scott Jaeger wins.
The meeting concluded at 9:00pm--- Laura Ballard.
April 11, 2007
The meeting commenced at 8pm; there were 44 students in attendance. The 11th Annual Russell DeSouza Banquet will be in the Bolger Conference Center on Wednesday April 18th at 6pm. Our final meeting for the semester will be on Wednesday May 2 at 7pm. There will be a Skywarn Training Session from the National Weather Service on this date.
Dr. John Nese is a Senior Lecturer of Meteorology from Pennsylvania State University. Dr. Nese discussed the topic “Mediarology- Toward Becoming a Better Weather Consumer”. He described how the perspectives and goals of the media and scientists are often at odds. The pubic is often misled by the media; it is our job as meteorologists to portray the truth to the public. After his talk, Dr. Nese entertained questions by students. The meeting concluded at 9:20pm.
April 18, 2007
The 11th Annual Russell DeSouza Banquet commenced at 6pm. There were over 60 people in attendance. As guests arrived, piano music was played by Student AMS Member, Kyle Dennis. Opening remarks were made by MU AMS President Matthew Stepp and our local AMS Faculty Advisor, Dr. Richard Clark. Dinner was served at 6:30pm. At 7:30pm, we were entertained by streaming video bloopers and forecasting awards, presented by our WIC Director, Eric Horst. This was followed by the presentation of our new 2007-2008 MU AMS officers. At about 8pm, our Keynote Speaker Dr. Richard Spinrad gave his talk on “Walking the Ridge of Science and Policy: An Environmental Scientist’s Trail Guide.” Dr. Spinrad is the Assistant Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR). A few brief closing statements were made by Dr. Clark, and the meeting concluded around 9pm.
On Thursday, April 19th, the North Florida held its final meeting of the 2006-2007 school year. We discussed our balance, the end of the semester picnic, and held elections. The speaker for this meeting was Paul Duval - MIC from NWS Tallahassee.
The balance that will be passed to the newly elected officers will be $563.20.
The "End of the Semester Picnic" was held Saturday, April 21 at Tom Bown Park. Graduate students and undergraduate students battled for bragging rights as flag football champions. The undergraduates dominated with a final score of 61 to 37. Delicious food and fun was had by all!
Congratulations to the 2007-2008 North Florida AMS board members! The board composed of the following people will begin May 1:
President - Charlie Woodrum
Vice President - Andy Latto
Treasurer - Kevin McKee
Secretary - Liane Claytor
Past President - Jessica Fieux
And last but not least...the "Resident Advisor of All Things Funk" will be David Piech!
Paul Duval, the MIC from NWS Tallahassee, spoke on the most recent severe weather outbreak on March 1st and March 2nd. He discussed the multiple tornados that touched down in southern Alabama and in particular, the devastating Enterprise tornado. He mentioned that the National Weather Service was in constant contact with the EOC of Coffee County since 10 in the morning that fateful day. They discussed several times evacuating the Enterprise High School, but decided against it, and for good reason. Had they evacuated, the casualties would have been much higher. He concluded by explaining why that particular tornado was upgraded from an EF-3 to EF-4. Damage assessment after the storm passed indicated that the tornado reached its peak intensity as an EF-4 just before it hit the high school.--- Katie Walls.
AMS General Meeting Minutes
April 11, 2007
Called to order: 11:16 AM
This was the first official meeting of the Northwest Indiana Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society!
We asked Student Senate for $2130 on conference expenditures. There will likely be cuts from this, but we expect they will cover the budgeted portion of the cost.
We have $2507.60 in our PayPal account.
No set balance can be given since some of the conference items need to be taken care of.
We are hopeful to leave the new e-board a decent budget.
Sign in Sheets
The No Talent/Talent Show will take place on Friday April 27at 5:00 pm.
There will be a $2 entry fee
It should be a great time as you see the amazing talents of your fellow classmates and the professors while laughing with/at them.
We will need participants!!!
Wrap-up (Bills) for the conference:
Legacy Bill: $197.50
Strongbow’s Bill: $3485.31
We had many good comments on the conference!
THANK YOU TO ALL THAT CAME TO THE CONFERENCE!!!
We are now a student chapter of the AMS!
There was a rather large travel bill for Joe Schaefer.
Will VUSIT pay for the hotel cost as done in the past?
Professionalism at conferences was discussed.
Elections Upcoming (Monday April 23 as of now)
Must be AMS Member for President per AMS National By-laws
Must be national NWA member for all e-board per our by-laws
This can be done after you are elected.
We are undecided in determining if the AMS constitution will be developed this spring. Next year’s e-board might have to take it on.
Teresa: On Monday May 7th there will be a talk about careers in the NWS.
We should consider creating a poster for the AMS National Conference. This will have to be done by October?
Meeting adjourned: 11:35 AM
April 23, 2007
Congratulations to the new AMS e-board:
President: Michael Grogan
Vice-President: Mark Borchelt
Secretary: Katie Giannecchini
Treasurer: Chris Wilson
Thanks to the outgoing e-board for a job well done!----David Peterson.
April Meeting Minutes---Evan Kuchera.
Global Warming Impacts on Pacific Northwest Rivers, Abrupt Climate Change, and the Fate of Greenland
Kyle Dittmer, Hydrologist-Meteorologist, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission
About 60 gathered to hear a talk at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) on April 16, 2007. In 2001, Kyle began a study of the impacts of observed climate change on the rivers and salmon of 12 Pacific Northwest basins of the Columbia Basin Treaty Tribes - Warm Springs, Umatilla, Nez Perce, and Yakama. A GIS analysis looked at tribal land below 4000 feet, where climate change effects are magnified. The four Tribes face high risk of climate change: 52% to 87% of their land is below 4000 feet.
Basin day-temperatures increased by 0.2 to 1.7 degF during the last 100 years. Night-temperatures increased by 0.6 to 4.1 degF. The trend of the night temperatures increased two to four times faster than the trend of the day temperatures. Annual precipitation increased by 2% to 28%. More precipitation is falling as rain and less as snow.
USGS flow data were “naturalized” to remove the effects of irrigation withdrawals. Timing of the spring snow-melt has moved, on average, from 1 to 23 days earlier during the last 100 years. The spring-summer volume (critical to salmon) of runoff has moved to autumn-winter, on average, by 1% to 37% in the last 100 years.
The net change on salmon is earlier snowmelt and less spring-summer flow. In 1940, it was rare for summer seasonal water temperatures to exceed 68 degF, the state water quality standard for salmon. Now, that threshold is exceeded half the time.
Far future climate change is ominous. Kyle traveled to Denmark in 2006 to learn how global warming is affecting the glaciers on Greenland (a Danish territory) and impacts to North America. He interviewed scientists at the Danish Climate Center in Copenhagen. Could a meltdown of the Arctic and Greenland ice disrupt and shut off the Gulf Stream in the north Atlantic? The Gulf Stream has slowed by 30% since 1992. This disruption would stop warm water advecting northward and trigger a sharp cooling on the lands of the north Atlantic—“Tipping Point” (a.k.a., Dansgaard-Oeschger or Heinrich events). There is too much uncertainty for the Danes to make a calculation. They speculate that “Tipping Point” would not happen until 2100. The Danes emphasize that, despite the large melt seen in recent years, Greenland is not going to completely melt anytime soon.
At the end, Kyle publicly donated a book to OMSI, on behalf of the Danish Climate Center, in Copenhagen. The book, "Climate Change Research - Danish Contributions" is a summary of the major climate change research in Denmark and Greenland, illustrated in color, and written in English. This book donation was his way of saying "thank you" to OMSI for the kindness shown to the Oregon-AMS over the years for opening up their auditorium for our events. OMSI was grateful for the gift. Details of this talk can be found at the Oregon-AMS website: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/index.html.---Kyle Dittmer.
OSWEGO STATE UNIVERSITY
Heather Sheffield (and the Meteorology department) had a Meteorology Photo Gallery at Quest, which was on April 18. It featured pictures taken by Oswego State students and faculty of the beautiful and fascinating weather at Oswego. The End-of-the-Year picnic will be on Saturday, April 28 from 12 PM – 5 PM at Fallbrook. It will be catered by Campus Catering. We will have music and outdoor games, like Frisbee and Football. The Snow Ice Hurricane Tornadoes Happens in Oswego and I Survived an Oswego Winter T-Shirts/Hoodies have been ordered and we should get them by the end of the last week of classes. We made approximately $160! We started committee work for the Lake Effect Conference that will be Saturday, October 20 and Sunday, October 21, 2007 by having people sign up for them. Ted Letcher gave a great weather briefing. In Fall '07, the New Campus Center will be home to the offices of ALL student organizations, including the Oswego State Student Chapter of the AMS!! We have applied for a workstation (a desk and computer designated exclusively for OSSCAMS) in the New Campus Center. We will find out whether we received the space by May 1st. Shawn showed his awesome video of the storm chasing that he, his brother, AJ, Andrew Reynolds, Eric Wenke, and Brandon Capasso did during Spring Break. Sunday, April 29 we will be going to Syracuse to see "Hurricane on the Bayou" at the IMAX theater. We will also be going out to dinner after the movie. We did some more work on the instrument shelter, and it is almost completed. We will wait for another sunny day to put the last coat of paint on it (or most likely Nicole Hannon and Ted Letcher will randomly do it one day). We held nominations for next year's officers. Elections will be at the next meeting, which is Wednesday, May 9. Speeches will be made before the voting begins so if they were nominated, they have the next two weeks to campaign and write a speech. Here's who was nominated and for what position: for Public Relations, Alexia Martinez, Ron Williams, Eric Wenke, & Ted Letcher were nominated. For Secretary, Tamarah Russell, Ted Letcher, Meredith Mandel, & Joe Wegman were nominated. For Treasurer, Kyle Pieper, Joe Wegman, Ted Letcher, & Mike Kelleher were nominated. For Vice-President, Mike Kelleher, Meredith Mandel, Byron McMichael, Kyle Pieper, & Tom Esterguard were nominated. And for President, Tom Esterguard, Meredith Mandel, Mike Kelleher, & Andrew Reynolds were nominated.--- Meredith Mandel.
PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY
The final PSUBAMS meeting of the 2006-2007 school year took place on April 11. This meeting held two purposes: to inform students of the AMS Private Sector Meteorologists’ Mentorship Program and to elect a new executive board.
The American Meteorological Society’s Board of Private Sector Meteorologists’ have started a mentorship program between college students and professionals in the field of meteorology. Two Penn State students, Bryan Oshinski and Zack Byko, were selected for the first session of the program. They were paired with two mentors that they shared, Dick Westergard (Shade Tree Meteorology) and Phil Falconer (Falconer Weather Information Service). The four held an open ended question and answer session, with several main points.
The mentorship program is meant to give the opportunity for one-on-one interaction between individuals in the private sector and students, while also having access to mentors all across the private sector. The program is tailored to help the student become more aware of the opportunities and personal growth available in the private sector.
The goals of the program are:
1) To establish mentorship relationships between advanced undergraduate and graduate meteorology and atmospheric science students and professionals in private industry.
2) To facilitate mutual learning and growth through the collection and exchange of information and advice on professional career development.
3) To sustain organic growth of the professional network of mentors and students.
This program is targeted at students who have strong ambition and are considering careers in the private sector. Prospective participants are identified through advisors, faculty, etc. Those selected will interact with their mentor at least once each month. The mentor and student will commit to interacting for at least six months time.
Anyone interested in applying for the AMS Private Sector Mentorship Program can visit: http://www.ametsoc.org/boardpges/bpsm/student.doc .
After the discussion, we held elections to select the PSUBAMS Officers for 2007-2008. The results were:
President – Marcus Walter
Vice President – Andy Hagen
Treasurer – Kevin Bowley
Secretary – Maria Zatko
For more information, please visit http://psubams.met.psu.edu/.---Bryan Oshinski.
PLYMOUTH STATE UNIVERSITY
All Members Meeting Agenda
Date: April 5, 2007
Board Members in Attendance: Melissa P, Katie F, Katie P, Norm, Bridget, Heather
Lyndon State event activities were listed and the date, time, and place of Saturday, April 28, 2007 from 12-5pm at field D&M-2 were given to all members. Sign up occurred at the conclusion of the meeting.
The Acadia National Park camping trip will be April 20-22nd and sign-up for this event also occurred immediately following the meeting.
Elections for next year’s executive board will be held at the next all majors meeting, so members were asked to start thinking about who they would like to nominate. More information will follow soon via email.
Members were asked to donate any good group photos taken at Storm Conference for use as a yearbook picture.
Executive Board Meeting
Date: April 18, 2007
Board Members in Attendance: Melissa P, Heather D, Katie P, Katie F, Norm S, Bridget B
Other Members in Attendance: Jeff V.
Red Sox tickets have arrived. The tickets are for the June 14, 2007 game. Reservation of a table in the HUB for selling raffle tickets will be done during Spring Fling Week. Raffle tickets will be sold for $3 per ticket or 2 tickets for $5. A decision is still being made regarding delegation of the funds raised.
Contacting the Recreation/PE Center regarding equipment rental will be done soon. A head count from both schools will also be taken. Necessary supplies include 30-35 jerseys, a soccer ball, cones, dodge balls, an Ultimate Frisbee, and 3 wiffle balls.
The next all majors meeting will be Wednesday, May 2nd at 7pm with an executive board meeting just prior, at 6:30pm. Elections will be held at this meeting. In the next few days, an email to all members will be sent out by Bridget and Katie F. regarding the nomination process.--- Heather Dinon.
RENO - LAKE TAHOE
Thursday, April 12, 2007
The meeting was called to order by chapter president Phillip Marzette at 5:30 pm PDT.
Chapter advisor Dr. Jeff Underwood gave the evening’s map discussion.
Chapter president Phillip Marzette discussed his master’s thesis research involving model simulations he has developed of extreme orographic precipitation in the Sierra Nevada.
There were no officer reports this meeting.
Brian O’Hara (of the weather calendar committee) reported that the calendar projects are going well. Calendar committee member Serena Chew said that we now have enough photographs for both the Reno calendar and the Lake Tahoe calendar. Serena displayed the photos for the chapter and those present said that the photos were excellent. Serena was commended for all of the effort she has put into collecting the photographs for the calendars over the past year. Chapter members also expressed appreciation for all of the people throughout the community who have submitted photos for the calendars
Chapter president Phillip Marzette continued discussion from the March meeting of possible field trips the chapter might take during the current semester or during the fall semester. One possibility discussed is to take a field trip to the Reno National Weather Service (NWS) office to watch a weather balloon release. Another possibility is to visit a local television studio. Chapter secretary Brian O’Hara said that he would set up a trip to the NWS office if the members wanted to go there. Chapter member David Walker had talked with two television stations in the Reno area and this seems like another possible field trip that the chapter would like to take.
President Marzette reminded those present that chapter dues for the 2007 calendar year can be paid at any time. He stated that we can only accept cash at this time, however, since the chapter is still working on getting a bank account with the university.
President Marzette also mentioned that the AMS local chapter would like to have a joint picnic with our student chapter. Laura Edwards of the Western Regional Climate Center (and member or both chapters) is the person organizing this possible joint picnic and wanted to know of any interest our chapter had. Many of those present thought that it would be a good idea and that they would attend.
Brian O’Hara reported that the chapter is still in the process of becoming a recognized student club with the Associated Students of the University of Nevada (ASUN) undergraduate student organization. The chapter now has the ten (10) undergraduate students that it needs to become recognized by ASUN, and the chapter will now be recognized as an official club at the next ASUN meeting. However, the chapter will not be able to apply for any loans from ASUN this semester since all of ASUN’s money has already been given out. This is something to keep in mind for future semesters if the chapter wants to take out a loan for a project from the ASUN. Brian stated that the chapter now has a mailbox with GSA, but is still trying to get a bank account with the university.
Brian O’Hara also reported that the Living Arts Foundation, a local foundation devoted to improving education for young people in the areas of science and the environment, had agreed to give the chapter $1,500 to help with its calendar project. This, along with the $5,000 grant from the University of Nevada Academy for the Environment (UNAE), and the $500 grant from the UNR Graduate Students Association (GSA), should give the chapter all the money it needs to proceed with the calendar projects.
The chapter discussed whether we should have 1,000 copies of each weather calendar printed for next fall or to start with a smaller number. Dr. Beth Hall, one of the chapter’s faculty advisors, stated that it might be better to start out small and not have a lot of extra calendars that the chapter is not able to sell. She said that it might be better to start out with perhaps 500 (or even 300) of each. Brian O’Hara stated that he felt that it was important to use the money that organizations have already agreed to give to the chapter for use this semester. After further discussion other chapter members agreed that it might be better to start out small the first year. Chapter member David Walker asked if we could find out how many calendars stores such as Barnes & Noble and Borders sell each year in order to guide us in determining how many calendars to print. Brian O’Hara said that he would check with both Barnes & Noble and Borders and would report back to the chapter at the May 10th meeting.
The meeting was adjourned at 7:07 pm PDT.---Brian O’Hara.
SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY
The April meeting was held at Salsa Ritas on campus. We held our first ever Ping Pong Tournament. Congratulations
to member Behn Zib for winning the tournament and member Andy Kren for taking second place. Thank you Dr. Pan and
Dr. de Foy for participating in the tournament as faculty members. In addition we held elections for next years officers.--- Emily Eisenacher.
TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY
TAMSCAMS Minutes 4-3-07
This was the last meeting of this school year with our current officers. President Alicia Dale welcomed everyone to our last official meeting of the year! Vice-President Haley Johnson talked about our upcoming trip to Norman, Oklahoma to tour NSSL. Treasurer Lindsay Brooks gave her report, and Social Chair Jessica Rosenbam celebrated birthdays. She also honored all outgoing seniors and wished them luck in their future. Dr. Steve Johnson visited Texas A&M from NASA in Houston and spoke about the dynamics and influences of space weather.
Elected officers for the 2007-2008 TAMSCAMS year are...
President: Dianne Boothby
Vice-President: Jorge Torres
Secretary: Beth Bange
Treasurer: Brian Haines
Social Chair: Jessica Rosenbam
The April 2007 meeting of the Twin Cities chapter of the American Meteorological Society was held on April 20, 2007. The meeting was called to order at 7:00 p.m. by Kevin Huyck. About 12 members and potential members were also present.
No significant business was conducted at this meeting.
During the meeting, John Wettenkamp provided a presentation on the Sensitivity of Short Range Numerical Weather Prediction to Data Availability during the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME). During this experiment, fine resolution numerical models were run using limited vertical layers and one sounding plus surface observations, no soundings and surface observations, and no observations. These results were compared with a control run that included numerous soundings and surface observations. The results indicated that with no observations being ingested into the model, a strict outer domain initialization, the output was not significantly different than the control run. In fact, since there was a smaller data set and reduced vertical resolution the model runs could be handled by a modern laptop in near real time. The implications of these findings for disaster mitigation and planning have potential. For example a similar model could be used to forecast the movement of a chemical plume from an accidental release, a radiological hazard, etc. ---Lori Bovitz.
UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA - HUNTSVILLE
April 19, 2007
The UAH AMS Chapter conducted a meeting on Thursday, April 19th, 2007 at 12:45 PM. We reviewed our activities for the entire semester, discussed our budget, talked about forming a Weather Calendar for next year, showed severe weather posters from elementary kids in the Huntsville area, updated the constitution, celebrated summer birthdays, and held elections.
President, Pawan Gupta showed a PowerPoint presentation with pictures showing our activities over the past year. The 1st Annual College of Science Student Conference took place in November 2006 where many atmospheric science students took part by showing their research and giving presentations. The ATS department formed an intramural flag football team this past fall, and the team won the co-ed championships. Many students attend the 87th annual AMS Conference and 6th Annual Student Conference that took place this past January.
Treasurer, Chris Jewett showed an excel sheet which reviewed our budget for this year. We have an overall profit balance due to our T-shirt sales and donations from faculty members. The monetary donation from the faculty helps pay for the pizza drinks at every meeting.
Chris Schulz is in charge of organizing a weather calendar for the 2008 year which will feature weather pictures taken by people in our department.
Vice-President, Elise Johnson received all the posters for the Severe Weather Poster Contest from students in the Huntsville area. The age groups for the posters are 1st-4th grade and 5th-8th grade. Judging for the posters will take place later. Prizes for the winners include tickets to the United States Space & Rocket Center.
Also, all changes to the constitution were approved by a majority vote. A new officer was created, WebMaster, who will be in charge of maintaining the student section of the UAH ATS website.
Secretary, Holly Searcy read who would be celebrating birthdays in April and the summer months because there will be no meeting again until August.
Elections took place for the 2007-2008 school year and the results are as follows:
Student Representative—Andrew Molthan.---Holly Searcy.
UNIVERSITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
Tuesday, April 3, 2007
Clifford Hall, Rm. 264
Alan Borho, Advisor
Kira Dordal, President
Kelly Kramlich, Vice President
Katy Olson, Secretary
Dan Koller, Treasurer
Kevin Skow Amanda Homann
Michael Phillips Andrea Neumann
Leah Tatarak Kelsey Watkins
Becki Legatt Erin Bertschi
Call to Order:
President Kira Dordal called the AMS meeting to order at 5:00.
-We nominated officers for next year.
-Current balance is $1000.67
-None to speak of.
Congratulations to our 2007-2008 officers!
-President: Kira Dordal
-Vice President: Katy Olson
-Treasurer: Kelly Kramlich
-Secretary: Becki Legatt
-We have the popcorn stand in the Union this week (through Thursday.) We could still use your help if you can come work at all, even for an hour!
-This month’s Photo Contest category is Lightning.
-We won our first broomball game 2-1. Our next game is tomorrow night (Wed., April 4) at 8:00 p.m. Come out and play!!
-*We will be doing Spotter Training at the NWS Thurs, April 19, 7:00pm.*
-Our Spring Picnic will be Sunday, April 29.
-The Big Event will be April 14. This is an event put on by UND Student Government every year; it is one big day of community service in the Grand Forks area.
-April 13 at Holiday Inn. Social at 6:00; meal at 6:30.
-Dave Kellenbenz will be our speaker! He will be giving a presentation on the F5 tornado that went through Fargo 50 years ago, and his case study of it.
-As for the menu, we are hoping to keep the price of the meal in the $18-$20 range, so we will probably go with chicken. The meal includes an entrée, vegetable, dessert, water, and coffee. A cash bar will also be there.
-Tickets for the banquet are now on sale!!! You need to RSVP to Mary Ann by next Wednesday; and also need to pick up your ticket(s) from her. Remember, paid members get a free ticket, but you still need to go pick it up.
-Studio One shows are every Thursday at 5:00pm. If you want to sit in at a live show and get a tour, tickets are free. Just talk to Kira or Dan if you’d like to come!
-The 11th Annual Northern Plains Convective Workshop is being held in conjunction with UND and the Grand Forks NWS, April 24-25 in Clifford Hall room 21. If you’ve done a senior project or other research, there will be a poster presentation to “show off” your stuff to meteorologists from around the region; need to hand in an abstract beforehand. Students don’t need to sign up to attend.
Meeting was adjourned without objection at 5:40.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Clifford Hall, Rm. 264
Alan Borho, Advisor
Kira Dordal, President
Kelly Kramlich, Vice President
Katy Olson, Secretary
Dan Koller, Treasurer
Adam Theisen Kevin Skow
Erin Bertschi Amanda Homann
Becki Legatt Andrea Neumann
Leah Tatarak Michael Phillips
Call to Order:
President Kira Dordal called the AMS meeting to order at 5:02.
-We voted on officers for the 2007-2008 school year. Here are the results… President: Kira Dordal, Vice President: Katy Olson, Treasurer: Kelly Kramlich, Secretary: Becki Legatt
-Current balance is $575.49
-We had a good showing for Spotter Training at the National Weather Service last Thursday.
-The Big Event was on April 14. We had 8 students participate; we did yard work, garden work, and window washing for the Campbell Library in East Grand Forks.
-Our Banquet was on April 13. Dave Kellenbenz spoke about the 1957 F5 tornado in Fargo. It was a great time!
-We are going to have current students email or call incoming freshman Atmospheric Science majors in August to welcome them, give them an idea of what to expect at UND, and help them to get involved right away. A sign-up went around for the email addresses and phone numbers of those who want to do this.
-Unfortunately we didn’t get a spot to work at the popcorn stand for the fall semester; but we are on a waiting list in case another group backs out.
-This month’s Photo Contest category is Lightning. Remember to vote!!
-Broomball is over! L
-Our Spring Picnic will be Sunday, April 29 at 3:00 at University Park. Becki and Andrea will go to Sam’s Club with Al beforehand to get ~80 hot dogs, buns, etc. Faculty/grad students can bring desserts/salads/chips/etc. Come for a fun end-of-the-year celebration, full of eating and playing games outside!
***Thanks to everyone for making this a fantastic year for AMS! We had some great participation, successful fundraising, and lots of fun events. We’re looking forward to next year already, with hopes of finally getting lined up to go curling. J If we don’t see you at the picnic, have a great summer! Good luck to all those graduating; and for those who aren’t…see you next year!***
-Studio One shows are every Thursday at 5:00pm. If you want to sit in at a live show and get a tour, tickets are free. Just talk to Kira or Dan if you’d like to come!
-The 11th Annual Northern Plains Convective Workshop is being held in conjunction with UND and the Grand Forks NWS, April 24-25 in Clifford Hall room 210. Students don’t need to sign up to attend.
Meeting was adjourned without objection at 5:23.--- Katy Olson.
UNIVERSITY OF PUERTO RICO- MAYAGÜEZ
Annual Report---Yaítza Luna.
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH ALABAMA
April 25, 2007
President - Tara Golden
Vice-President - Javy Vazquez
Secretary - Reba Redd
Treasurer - Brandon White
Webmaster - Jason Holmes
SeCAPS Coordinator - Ronnie Schumann
SeCAPS was a huge success. We had a record attendence of over 150 students and professionals. Thanks to all of you who volunteered your time and effort to make this year's SeCAPS the best to date! Several of the speakers and professionals have complimented the club on the excellent work everyone has done.
Our oozeall team had a blast participating in the oozeball tournament on campus a couple of weeks ago, although we did not make it past the first round.
Our chapter's application for Local Chapter of the Year has been completed and mailed to the Selection Committee. We will be notified in October if our chapter is being recognized.
Elections were held for next year's officers, and it was a tight race. Thanks to all of you who sent in your nominations and to all of the candidates who ran for each position. Congratulations to those who will be serving our club next year!
Our officers for next year will be:
President - Chris Morris
Vice-President - Donald Wright
Secretary - Miranda Hayes
Treasurer - Donovan Scarbrough
There will be an officer meeting this Friday at 4:30pm at Picklefish on Old Shell Rd. All old and new officers are invited. The outgoing officers will provide each of the new officers with all of the appropriate information needed for their duties next year. We will also be writing thank you letters to all of the SeCAPS speakers thanking them for their time and their informative presentations. ----Reba Redd.
April Newsletter---Mary Bedrick.
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