Asheville AMS Chapter Meeting Minutes

Thursday, November 17, 2005         

 

The Asheville Chapter of the American Meteorological Society held its third meeting for 2005-2006 in Laurel Forum, Karpen Hall, University of North Carolina at Asheville (UNCA), at 7:00 pm on Thursday, November 17, 2005.  Fifteen people attended the meeting.

 

Business Meeting

 

            Old Business

 

The Vice-President of the Chapter, Mike Cuevas presided at the meeting.  The treasurer’s report was read and approved.  The balance as of November 17, 2005 is $776.78.  The October meeting minutes were read and approved. 

 

Mr. Cuevas discussed the upcoming meeting in December and possibly having a meeting during the day at lunch time.  The speaker for December will be Major Brian Beitler from the Air Force Combat Climatology Center.  His topic will be “Roles and Uses of Meteorology in Meeting Natural Disasters.”

 

New Business

 

There is going to be a snow forecasting contest starting right away.  Susan Tarbell will email the rules of the contest to all members.  Submission of the vote is due November 30th, and only AMS Asheville Chapter members can vote.  The main question will be “On what date will the first measurable snowfall (1 inch or more) happen at the Asheville Airport starting from December 1st on??”  In case of a tie, what amount will be measured?

 

John White discussed a couple of Science Fairs that were coming up next year.

 

Guest Speaker

 

Mike Cuevas introduced the speaker for the evening, Dr. Chris Hennon.  Dr. Hennon recently left the National Hurricane Center and is now a Professor at the University of North Carolina at Asheville, in the Atmospheric Sciences Department.  His topic was “The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season in 45 Minutes.”

 

There were many seasonal forecasts given before the hurricane started.  These forecasts were created from a “new” technique developed over the last couple of years called the “Tropical Meteorology Project.”  The old technique stopped working after 1994.  The new technique is derived from reanalysis data, such as El Nino indicators, sea level pressure anomalies, and sea surface temperature anomalies. 

 

Many warning signs occurred before the season officially began: multi-decadal signals in the atmosphere (usually a 20-30 year cycle), Atlantic sea surface temperatures were above average, and the most crucial—the El Nino condition.  There was a neutral condition of El Nino, so it was not a factor in lessening the hurricane season.  Over all, the Tropical Meteorology Project did a lousy job of forecasting the 2005 season.

 

Season as of November 17, 2005

27 Tropical depressions

23 Named storms

13 Hurricanes

7 Major hurricanes, cat 3 or above

3 Category 5 hurricanes

 

Dr. Hennon spoke about 4 hurricanes: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.  The first was Hurricane Dennis that occurred July 5-11, 2005.  It was a category 4 at peak intensity with 145 mph winds.  It was the earliest that 4 named storms formed in the Atlantic.  Ten people were killed in Cuba and Haiti.

 

The next big hurricane was Hurricane Katrina, one of the most devastating storms in our history.  On August 25, Katrina approached the South Florida coast as a tropical storm.  Rainfall estimates of 20 inches or more were forecast for South Florida.  There was a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico to help make Katrina “bigger and badder.”  The forecasting of Hurricane Katrina was about to begin.  The first eye wall replacement cycle occurred early on August 27th.  Overall, this was not a big rain event as Katrina moved so fast.  Eventually the eye wall was 20 nautical miles wide, creating the perfect “eye.”  On August 28th, Hurricane Katrina is a Cat 5 with 175 mph sustained winds.  Fortunately, Cat 5 hurricanes can not keep up their strength for very long so Katrina was downgraded to a Cat 4.  On August 29th, Hurricane Katrina was downgraded to a Cat 3 because of the intrusion of drier air.

 

Hurricane Katrina totals:

1302 killed (2nd most for United States)

$70-$130 billion damage

Over 1 million people displaced

 

Hurricane Rita (September 16-20) was the 4th most intensive in the Atlantic area up until that time.  No real models can forecast for rapidly forming hurricanes, so did not forecast well for Rita.  We are not sampling the atmosphere enough.  There were 6 direct deaths attributed to Hurricane Rita.  Plus the hurricane reopened some levy breaches in New Orleans.

 

Hurricane Wilma set all the records for tropical cyclones ever recorded.  It later became a Cat 3 hurricane with 30-40 nautical miles across.  There were at least 47 deaths attributed to Hurricane Wilma.

 

Historical Perspectives

Why was the 2005 season so hyper-active?  This will be looked at for sure by many meteorologists.

Why were so many tropical cyclogensis events in the Northern Caribbean—not a usual thing?

Why did many storms, including Katrina, intensify so rapidly?

Why were there only a couple of storms that formed in the Eastern Atlantic?

What is in store for 2006?

 

After questions from the audience, the meeting was adjourned by Mike Cuevas.

 

Conclusion

 

The next chapter meeting is planned for December 15, 2005.

 

                                                                       

                                                                        Respectfully submitted,

 

 

                                                                        Susan A. Tarbell