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LEGISLATIVE NEWS
WEATHER NEWS
SATELLITES AND SPACE
GENERAL NEWS
GLOBAL CHANGE
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Both the Senate Energy and the House Commerce Committees were to hold hearings in September to examine U.S. policy on international climate change negotiations.
The hearing by Rep. Dan Schaefer's (R-CO) House Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Power was scheduled to meet 11 September, and Sen. Frank Murkowski's (R-AK) Energy Committee was due to meet on 17 September.
The House subcommittee was scheduled to focus on what the State Department agreed to in Geneva recently, what the administration expects to happen, and what it thinks is feasible, according to committee sources. The source indicated that a critical look will be taken at the Geneva negotiations to be sure that if actions are taken that hurt the U.S. economy, trade, and competitiveness, those actions will actually help the environment.
In announcing the hearing, Sen. Murkowski issued a statement that read as follows.
Despite continuing scientific uncertainties about climate change, the State Department has agreed to pursue legally binding greenhouse gas emission caps applicable only to a narrow gap of nations. Even worse is that our negotiators have agreed to these steps without the necessary understanding of their implications for the U.S. economy, energy taxes, and American jobs. . . Legally binding commitments that apply only to developed nations will export jobs to developing countries who do not have to comply with emission limits, placing the United States at a competitive disadvantage while failing to address the explosion of greenhouse gas emissions produced in nations such as China and India.
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House Energy and Environment Subcommittee Chairman Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) is exploring whether efforts to recover the costs of some of the government's R&D investments might ease budget pressures.
At an August hearing, Rohrabacher gathered DOE officials and other experts to discuss whether DOE could benefit from efforts to recoup more from its investments in public–private R&D partnerships, once a product was commercialized successfully by industry.
Noting that the concept of cost recovery was "within the philosophy of both parties," Rohrabacher said he was looking for "innovative financing solutions" and hoped to introduce legislation sometime in the next few months.
"We cannot," he announced, "cut poor people off of welfare while permitting large corporations to make. . . millions of dollars at the expense of the taxpayer."
Most of the witnesses believed that DOE could get a better return on its R&D investment through greater emphasis on various forms of cost-sharing partnerships, repayment agreements, royalties, and licensing fees, but warned that inflexible policies might discourage industry participation.
They agreed that the costs recovered would likely be small compared to the department's overall R&D budget. As Daniel Hartley, of Sandia National Laboratory, remarked, certain types of research projects were not appropriate for cost recovery; for example, basic or generic research is difficult to associate with a particular product, and the benefits do not accrue to a single company.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Executive Officer Ron Cochran pointed out that much of the work done at the DOE labs is large-scale, long-term, high-risk research, with benefits that are "often diffuse and difficult to quantify."
While there was agreement that incorporating business practices and cooperating with industry could make federal R&D investments more efficient, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Director Charles Gay commented that public and private investments have different objectives. Private sector investments are made to gain a profit, he said; public sector investments are made for the public good.
Hartley cited the macroeconomic benefits of public–private partnerships: successful commercialization by industry leads to more profits, jobs, and increased tax revenues. He also pointed out that DOE and its national labs have specific mission objectives, which, as Senior DOE Advisor for Strategic Computing and Simulation Roger Lewis noted, can be accomplished "either solely with our own resources or by involving others," such as industrial partners.
Because R&D supporting those missions would be performed by the government anyway, he said, cost sharing with industry is "the ultimate means of reducing the taxpayers' cost."
Gay said that a DOE group, headed by Curtis, is currently examining alternative financing mechanisms for cooperative R&D and expects to produce a report this fall.
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The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) calculates that under a contingent administration budget plan, nondefense R&D spending in FY2002 (after allowing for inflation) could be 19.1% less than in FY1995, according to a report in the American Institute of Physics Bulletin of Science Policy News.
Under a budget resolution approved by Congress in July, the report read, total nondefense R&D spending might decline even further, dropping by 23%.
That was the projection offered the House Science Committee by Al Teich of AAAS at a two-day hearing in July. Teich told the committee that "in the absence of other information, AAAS extrapolated outyear (future) funding levels for R&D by calculating how much of each account in the current budget represents R&D and then applying that percentage to proposed funding levels for each account in future years."
Teich said, "The point is that, while I would not place bets on the precise numbers, if Congress and the president continue to pursue a balanced budget primarily through cuts in discretionary spending, especially nondefense discretionary, then further cuts to federal support of R&D are inevitable."
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The U.S. House of Representatives approved legislation on 10 September to protect one-tenth of the earth's surface by passing H.R. 3060, the Antarctic Environmental Protection Act.
The bill authorizes the United States to implement the 1991 Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, which established rules to protect the Antarctic environment from damaging human activities. The protocol protects flora and fauna, limits the discharge of pollutants, requires environmental assessments of planned activities in the region, and forbids nonscientific prospecting and development of Antarctic mineral resources.
In 1992, the U.S. Senate gave its consent to ratify the measure, but implementing legislation was never enacted. All 26 parties to the Antarctic Treaty must ratify the protocol for it to be fully enforceable. The United States, Russia, Japan, India, Belgium, and Finland are the only remaining nations that have not done so.
House Science Committee Chairman Robert S. Walker (R-PA) praised the action saying, "Antarctica is not just a natural wonder, but an almost boundless laboratory which has already yielded great insights on the nature of the world we inhabit. Antarctica is the ideal platform for scientific research on complex questions of atmospheric chemistry and thermodynamics, which will increase our understanding of the global environmental phenomena such as climate change, ocean circulation, and stratospheric ozone depletion. Antarctica also can increase our understanding of the forces of evolution and produce commercialization opportunities in the field of biochemistry through biological breakthroughs, such as the discovery of fish containing antifreeze proteins hundreds of times more effective than their synthetic chemical counterparts.
"Today, the House seized an historic opportunity to pass long overdue environmental legislation. The protocol represents an important addition to the uniquely successful system of peaceful cooperation and scientific research that has evolved under the Antarctic Treaty of 1959. I would like to especially thank Congresswoman Connie Morella (R-MD), Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA), and Congressman George Brown (D-CA), the ranking Democrat on the Science Committee, for helping shepherd H.R. 3060 through the Science Committee and the House."
H.R.3060 will ensure preservation of the Antarctic environment by prohibiting certain acts that may cause interference to the ecosystem such as the use of aircraft or other vehicles in a manner that disturbs organisms such as birds or seals, requiring the EPA to conduct environmental impact assessments to satisfy U.S. obligations under the 1991 protocol, amending the 1990 Antarctic Protection Act to make it consistent with the ban on mineral resource activities, except for scientific purposes and amending the Act to Prevent Pollution from Ships to apply the protocol to any vessel under the jurisdiction of the United States in the Antarctic region.
The House Science Committee ordered H.R. 3060 reported by voice vote last April, and the House passed it by a vote of 352–4 on 10 June. The Senate passed an amended version on 3 September, requiring the House vote on the Senate amendments. The bill now goes to the president.
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Early in the evening of 12 July, an estimated 3 to 3.5 inches of rain created a 12-foot wall of water along Buffalo Creek southwest of Denver. The creek flooded its banks, washed away a bridge and road, and left two people dead. At the same time, hail pelted the Colorado plains as a number of severe storms thundered through the hot afternoon.
Both storm areas were continuously watched by an experimental radar perched atop four seatainers (seaworthy trailers) at Front Range Airport in Watkins, the first town east of Denver on I-70. Operated throughout the summer by Boulder's National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the radar's dual-polarimetry technology proved its state-of-the-art precision on 12 July by distinguishing between the large, flat raindrops swelling Buffalo Creek and the round hailstones pounding the eastern prairie. Meanwhile, Denver's Front Range Doppler radar part of the National Weather Service's nationwide network (WSR-88D, formerly known as NEXRAD) showed both areas as having similarly heavy rain and/or hail, without distinguishing between the two.
"Measuring heavy rains accurately is important for anticipating flash floods," explains NCAR scientist Jim Wilson, who heads the S-Pol precipitation experiment. "Hail can fool the WSR-88D into 'thinking' it's raining harder than it actually is, thereby introducing uncertainty into the issuance of flash flood warnings. S-Pol can more accurately measure the size and shape of raindrops. This helps us spot areas of heavy rainfall and predict the resulting runoff."
To quantify the advantages of a dual-polarimetric radar over the WSR-88D's more conventional technology (single polarization), NCAR is planning a series of experiments over the next few years in various seasons and locations around the United States. This summer's deployment of S-Pol at Front Range Airport is the first in the series. Anticipating promising results from the current refinement of the now 15-year-old technology, scientists at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) are already working on how to add it to the existing WSR-88D network installed around the country in the early 1990s. Colorado State University and NSSL use dual-polarimetric radar data and are collaborating with NCAR on the S-Pol tests. Similar studies are taking place in Germany, Italy, and England.
Matt Kelsch, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, parent organization of the National Weather Service, comments, "WSR-88D is set to measure maximum rainfall rates of 2.94 inches per hour in Colorado. Above that limit, hail looks like very heavy rainfall. S-Pol, however, has no set threshold."
The dual polarimetric radar measures the average height and width of raindrops in a measured volume of air about the size of a city block. Its precision reveals the raindrops' shape, a big clue as to how much water is actually falling. Small drops tend to be round, while larger drops flatten into hamburger shapes as they fall. The larger the drops, the heavier the rainfall and the greater the risk of flood. S-Pol is NCAR's second dual-polarimetric radar. Its predecessor, CP-2, was expensive to set up because it required the construction of a concrete pad at each new site. By contrast, S-Pol can be placed on a base of four seatainers—the same ones it's shipped in—for assembly at any stable, accessible site in the world. The 28-foot aluminum dish is sturdy in winds up to 50 miles per hour and can be covered with a radome (protective shell) if necessary in more severe weather.
Not only is S-Pol convenient to ship and assemble, but it sports a much improved antenna, which provides more accurate measurements than CP-2 did. A new data processor using modern digital technology further supports S-Pol's state-of the-art status.
Dennis Heap, director of aviation at Front Range, donated airport grounds for the experiment. The large white dish has been scanning the horizon from its seatainer base on the former north–south runway at the airport's west side. Heap said, "The Front Range Airport Authority provided the land at no cost to NCAR because it saw the long-range benefits to the aviation community, which heavily depends on accurate weather information." About 125 airplanes from the Denver metro area are based at Front Range and many more from around the country stop there for fuel.
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What is described as a "significant development" in the area of data exchange on cloud cover with China occurred recently during meetings in Beijing.
U.S. representative Dale Kaiser, of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, on a team involved in DOE's joint research agreements with the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) attended and made presentations at the Eighth CAS/DOE Meeting on Collaborative Research on CO2-Induced Climate Change and the Second CMA/DOE Science Team Meeting on Regional Climate Research.
At both meetings, Kaiser delivered the paper, "Changes in Monthly Mean Cloud Amount Over China: A Closer Look" and held discussions with his Chinese counterparts in the areas of future climate data exchange, joint research, and database publication.
The main point of Kaiser's paper was that Chinese data show that significant decreases in cloud amount occurred over the northern half of China from 1954 to 1990, but that previous analysis by former Soviet Union (FSU) data show just the opposite trend in regions adjoining northern China.
Further research is planned in this area, perhaps involving CMA colleagues.
Professor Tao of CAS provided updates through 1993 for two databases previously published by CDIAC, which Kaiser described as a "significant development" in data exchange. The two databases were "Two Long-Term Instrumental Climatic Data Bases of the People's Republic of China" by Tao, Fu, Zeng, and Zhang, NDP-039, 1991. CDIAC will quality assure the new data and publish an update to the database, Kaiser said. NDP-039 is available from CDIAC's World Wide Web site (http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov). Also, printed copies can be obtained by calling CDIAC at 423-574-3645 or by e-mailing cdiac@ornl.gov
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ADEOS, the first satellite in a series of major collaborative efforts between the United States and Japan's National Space Development Agency (NASDA) in the area of earth remote sensing, was launched from the Tanegashima Space Center in Japan on 17 August.
ADEOS, the Advanced Earth Observing Satellite, was launched on a Japanese H-2 rocket and sent into a 497-mile-high circular polar orbit.
Equipped with a NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), NASDA's Ocean Color and Temperature Scanner, and a French instrument, the satellite will observe and monitor the global environment. NOAA's NESDIS will distribute data electronically to users in the United States, Japan, and other countries for use in weather forecasting and environmental monitoring after the satellite begins day-to-day science operations in November.
Launching of the satellite represents "a superb example of increasing international cooperation between the United States and other seafaring nations of the world in generating a better understanding of our planet and its complex climate," according to William Townsend, acting associate administrator for NASA's Office of Mission to Planet Earth.
"NOAA will be a near-real-time user of data from the NASA Scatterometer and NASDA's Ocean Color and Temperature Scanner," said Helen Wood, NOAA's director of satellite data processing and distribution.
The scatterometer will make 190,000 measurements a day of the speed and direction of winds within about 1.5 inches of the ocean surface. These winds directly affect the turbulent exchanges of heat, moisture, and greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and the ocean, according to Jim Graf, the NSCAT project manager at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, CA. "Understanding and characterizing this interface," Graf explained, "is critical to better scientific understanding of global warming, El Niño phenomenon, and other studies of the earth as a total system. In addition, seafaring organizations that transport goods and passengers across the oceans can use the data. . . to steer their ships more safely and economically."
The TOMS sensor will help extend the unique dataset of global total column ozone measurements begun by a TOMS carried aboard NASA's NIMBUS-7 satellite in 1978. "TOMS/ADEOS will continue this global mapping, while the NASA TOMS Earth Probe satellite, launched into a lower orbit in July, will compensate for cloud-covered regions and provide higher-resolution measurements of tropospheric aerosols and pollutants," explained Phil Sabelhaus, manager of the TOMS project at Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD.
Data from both NSCAT and TOMS/ADEOS "will be very valuable to NOAA's National Weather Service," said Susan Zevin, deputy director for the weather service. The ocean surface wind measurements, used in numerical models, will help local weather forecasters more accurately predict the path and intensity of hurricanes, winter storms, and other weather systems that form over the oceans, she explained. The ozone data will be used by the National Weather Service to monitor volcanic ash in the atmosphere to improve aviation safety and to help generate a daily forecast of ultraviolet exposure levels to help reduce people's overexposure to the sun's rays.
Ocean color data will play a vital role in protecting ecosystems and building sustainable fisheries, according to the scientists. The data are useful in monitoring pollution and river discharge, detecting and monitoring noxious algal blooms, and locating optimum fishing grounds, they explained.
Other science instruments on ADEOS provided by agencies in Japan and France will study ocean chlorophyll production and ocean temperature, land vegetation distribution, the vertical profile of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and water vapor, and the polarization and direction of solar energy reflected by the earth.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced it began a 2-week period of special operations on 20 August to try to prolong the life of instruments on the GOES-9 weather satellite, which overlooks the West Coast and out into the Pacific Ocean.
"GOES-9 is operating as it should, but has lost a backup motor on the imager," said Gary Davis, NOAA's director of satellite operations. "The problem has been proven to be caused by heat."
By changing the spacecraft orientation and pointing the imager away from the sun periodically, the maximum temperature swing can be reduced by up to 10° Celsius (50° Fahrenheit). "We expect this to have a positive effect on prolonging the life of the instruments," Davis said.
The procedure will mean no images from GOES-9 for a period of about 6 hours every day during the 2-week period, centered on 0900 GMT. During the 2 weeks, NOAA will evaluate results and look at options such as use of other data during the imager's downtime. If results are positive, the outages will be implemented in August, October, February, and April, when the instrument runs the hottest because of the relative position of the earth and sun. This procedure will only affect 25% (or 6 hours per day) of the data during 8 weeks of the year—a data outage of less than 4% annually.
NOAA's GOES-8 satellite, overlooking the East Coast and out into the Atlantic Ocean, will continue its normal operations. NOAA is currently planning to launch its next GOES satellite in the spring of 1997, with a redesigned motor to prevent a similar problem.
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NOAA, the Coast Guard, and NASA recently completed installation of newly available, satellite-compatible Emergency Locator Transmitters (ELTs) on six aircraft.
The new transmitters are designed to replace 1970s technology ELTs that are currently installed in the U.S. general aviation fleet, which numbers more than 200,000, mostly small single-engine aircraft.
Aircraft selected to receive the new ELTs include a NASA DC-8 research plane, a NOAA-P3 "Hurricane Hunter," and Coast Guard command search and recovery aircraft. The sixth plane is a twin-engine AeroCommander that is flown by NOAA at low altitudes in remote areas to measure water content in snow packs.
The satellite-aided system was developed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD.
The NASA research program has proven to be successful and has played a vital role in saving lives. The program has evolved into what is known today as the Search and Rescue Satellite-Aided Tracking System, and, internationally, it is known as COSPAS-SARSAT and includes Russian satellites and instruments. Some 28 nations are now participating, and more than 6,000 lives have been saved in both maritime and aviation incidents since the program was initiated in 1982.
The SARSAT instrument is carried on the NOAA TIROS series of satellites. When a radio transmitter beacon is activated by a marine vessel in trouble or by an airplane crash, the signal is received by a ground terminal where technicians relay the information to the Coast Guard or Air Force, which undertake rescue operations.
The action to install the new ELTs in government aircraft is designed to demonstrate government agency support of the use of the new ELTs in the U.S. general aviation fleet. Installation in the general aviation fleet would be voluntary.
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NASA has awarded a series of cooperative agreements valued at $25.8 million supporting collaboration among NASA, nine investigator teams, and Cray Research of Eagan, MN, to achieve supercomputer applications 10 times faster than are available today.
The advances being pursued, which will provide a new understanding of the fundamental problems in the earth and space sciences, include modeling changes in global climate and the earth's interior, simulating the evolution and dynamics of stars, probing microgravity environments, and processing remote sensing imagery and signals. For broader benefit, the new computer programs and documentation will be made available to the research community on the World Wide Web's National High Performance Computing and Communications (HPCC) Software Exchange at http://nhse.cs.utk.edu/home.html
The 3-year agreements are funded through the Earth and Space Sciences (ESS) Project of NASA's HPCC Program.
Science advances will be enabled by a 384-processor CRAY T3E supercomputer being placed at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, as part of a $13.2 million agreement with Cray Research. "With 49 billion bytes of memory and 230 billion floating point operations per second at peak performance, this system will be NASA's leading testbed for scalable parallel computing, in which a program's speed increases proportionally with the number of processors," said James Fischer, ESS project manager. Cray Research subsequently will assemble a CRAY T3E as large as 1,024 processors to allow 100 billion floating point operations per second to be sustained on investigator applications.
"This effort will further the earth and space sciences by helping to overcome one of high-performance computing's greatest bottlenecks—the lack of usable software for parallel machines," said Lee Holcomb, director of Aviation Systems Technology Division at NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC. "Such computational studies strongly mesh with NASA's observational and theoretical programs and contribute to our wider mission of scientific research and space exploration."
In August, Cray Research will place an interim CRAY T3D system (the CRAY T3E's predecessor) with 512 processors and 32 billion bytes of memory at Goddard. By June 1997, NASA and the investigators will complete transition to the 384-processor CRAY T3E. Access to larger CRAY T3E systems will occur before the program's conclusion in 1999. Time on the computers will be divided among the ESS Project and the NASA HPCC Computational Aerosciences Project investigations and other NASA earth and space sciences researchers.
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Facing the threat of high winds from Hurricane Fran, NASA managers at the Kennedy Space Center moved Space Shuttle Atlantis from the launch pad to the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) on 4 September and then back to the Launch Pad 39-A complex the next day when the hurricane moved on a more northeasterly course, removing the threat. Launch for the Atlantis mission (STS-79) is planned for 16 September with the launch window opening at 4:54 A.M. EDT. Atlantis is scheduled to rendezvous and dock with the Russian space station Mir on the fourth day of the flight and land at Kennedy Space Center on 26 September.
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This past summer the National Center for Atmospheric Research initiated a new multiyear scholarship and mentoring program called SOARS (Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science) to help diversify the ranks of atmospheric scientists.
SOARS is intended to increase the number of Hispanic, Native American, and African American students enrolled in Master's and Ph.D. programs in the atmospheric and related sciences, such as meteorology, oceanography, computer science, environmental science, and relevant areas of the social sciences. Although SOARS targets underrepresented groups, no one is excluded from the program because of race or gender. The program is designed to produce greater class, race, and gender diversity in the scientific community and strengthen undergraduate and graduate research programs in the participating colleges and universities.
SOARS students spend 10 weeks each summer at UCAR and NCAR, working under the guidance of a scientific or technical mentor on a selected research project in the student's area of interest. Each has three other mentors to help develop writing and communication skills, involve the student in the community, and provide peer support. While at UCAR and NCAR, students receive a competitive salary, housing, and round-trip airfare to and from Boulder from anywhere within the United States and Puerto Rico.
After the summer session, students will be encouraged to apply to continue through the remaining 4 years of the program. Those selected will spend all or part of several summers at UCAR and NCAR, collaborating on research leading to publishable papers and/or conference presentations. Students may receive academic credit for their SOARS activities or expand their initial research project through an honors program. They will also participate in educational seminars and learn about education and career options in the atmospheric and related sciences.
Before completing their senior year, undergraduates will be encouraged to apply to a master's or Ph.D. degree program at one of the SOARS participating universities. Those accepted into graduate-level programs will receive full scholarships, with SOARS and the participating universities sharing the cost.
The SOARS program is funded by a $1.5 million grant from the National Science Foundation to the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and NCAR, with additional support from NASA. Participating universities contribute one-half the cost of 2 years of graduate education for any SOARS student accepted into its program; SOARS pays the other half. Colorado State University and the University of Colorado at Boulder are among the 22 participating institutions. Students may apply from any accredited college or university in the United States or Puerto Rico.
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In response to calls from Capitol Hill and the Galvin Commission to reassess its national laboratories, DOE plans a series of reviews about how DOE research and development are done, the roles of its laboratories, and ways that administrative costs can be cut.
Plans for the review were announced by DOE Deputy Secretary Charles B. Curtis and Ford Motor Company Vice President John P. McTague.
DOE's initial focus will not be on its large multiprogram laboratories. Instead, the department and its Laboratory Operations Board (cochaired by Curtis and McTague) will first review how program managers allocate R&D among DOE labs, universities, and industry. This analysis, to be completed by 1 November, will also determine if R&D should be done by fewer performers.
During 1997, another review will be made of DOE's seven small, mission-specific laboratories that have annual budgets of up to $50 million. As outlined in a new, two-volume report, "Strategic Laboratory Mission Plan-Phase 1," this review will "validate their roles, or, relatedly, determine if they are candidates for privatization, alternative contracting mechanisms, or closure. Further action will be taken on such candidates during the next year." DOE already is moving on this front, sources said, as it just has agreed to privatize its principal oil research lab in Oklahoma.
DOE and the Review Board then will examine the "institutional and strategic plans for the multiprogram laboratories to determine how these may better contribute to the needs of the department." No date is given for completion of this review.
Curtis said that there were no preordained objectives about the future of these nine laboratories.
The report appears to back away from closure of any of the three weapons design labs. In general, the report characterized closure of labs as an "irreversible step," adding that "many of the cost savings may be illusory." Instead, "downsizing in place" is described as a way to reduce funding requirements.
A major impetus for this action is impending cuts in DOE funding, which Curtis estimated to be as high as 36%. DOE has, he warned, "very, very serious outyear problems. Results of this review will begin to appear in the FY1998 budget request," he said.
Looking ahead, the report indicates "Although the short-term forecast is for increasingly light DOE budgets, the long-term picture suggests that the nation's overall (public and private) support for science and technology will remain steady, if not actually grow. The size of the department's laboratories 5, 10, or 15 years from now will depend to a considerable extent on whether the institutions are cost-effective performers of R&D in the public interest."
To obtain a copy of the two-volume report, call DOE's Public Inquiries Branch at 202-586-5575. The text of the first volume can be found on DOE's HomePage at http://www.doe.gov under the What's New section.
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In its "Science and Engineering Indicators—1996" publication, NSF reports, "Many countries, including the United States, are facing economic pressures and budgetary constraints. Although widespread consensus exists regarding the importance of investment in research and development (R&D), it is difficult to know what the optimal level of investment should be and which areas should receive the investment. This report provides a basis from which to analyze these issues, presenting a wide range of S&T (science and technology) indicators that show trends over time and across countries."
In addition to funding much of the nation's basic research, NSF also tracks resources, trends, and demographics of the U.S.'s R&D effort. This information, by law, is provided to the president biennially through this report. In his letter to the president, outgoing National Science Board President Frank Rhodes wrote that the report "contributes to a better understanding of this nation's science and technology capabilities. . . 'Science and Engineering Indicators' provide decision makers and analysts in both the public and private sectors with a broad base of quantitative information and analysis regarding science, engineering, research, and education in the United States. . . (and) valuable comparative information on science and technology in other countries."
The 652-page report shows data spanning the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s.
Findings included the following.
Chapter 1—Elementary and Secondary Science and Mathematics Education. Generally, the decline in math and science achievement scores for upper-elementary and secondary students during the 1970s was followed by a steady increase through the 1980s. Students graduating from high school have completed more math and science courses than in the early 1980s. While males still score higher on science achievement tests at all age levels, gender differences have diminished, as have differences between white students and black and Hispanic students.
Chapter 2—Higher Education in Science and Engineering. While the total number of science and engineering (S&E) baccalaureate degrees awarded in the United States increased by 3% annually in recent years, the number of degrees in engineering, math, and computer sciences declined and then stabilized. The United States is still one of the leading countries in providing a higher education system that reaches a broad range of citizens. The numbers of women and minorities planning to major in science and engineering has increased, as has the graduate enrollment of women and minorities. While doctoral degree production in S&E fields has increased in the past decade, so has the proportion of foreign students receiving those doctorates.
Chapter 3—Science and Engineering Workforce. In 1993, the job market was more favorable for college graduates than for the rest of the workforce, and salaries are usually higher for S&E graduates at all levels than for graduates in other fields. The overall number of S&E jobs in industry grew in the early 1990s, but the growth was mainly in computer- and math-related jobs, while employment in most other science and engineering fields declined. Growth in academic employment of doctors of S&E slowed significantly after 1989. The number of full-time traditional faculty positions has remained static, with increases primarily in nontraditional types of positions.
Chapter 4—Research and Development: Financial Resources and Institutional Linkages. The United States supports approximately 44% of the industrialized world's R&D, spending more than Japan, Germany, France, and the UK combined if defense R&D is included. Growth in U.S. R&D funding by both the public and private sectors during the 1990s has been less than inflation. The number of new joint research ventures has grown annually for nearly the past decade, and cooperative research is becoming an important tool for states in leveraging S&T resources. The number of international R&D partnerships and investments in and by foreign firms are substantial.
Chapter 5—Academic Research and Development: Infrastructure and Performance. For nearly the past decade, academic R&D has experienced stronger annual growth than other R&D sectors, increasing its share of total U.S. R&D. While the federal government remains the major source of funds for academic R&D, academic institutions themselves provide the second largest share of support. Industrial support of academic R&D, although less than federal and academic support, is fastest growing. The United States contributes about one-third of the articles in the world's peer-reviewed natural science and engineering journals, and in publications of almost all countries, U.S. research receives more citations than the domestic literature.
Chapter 6—Technology Development and Diffusion. The United States maintains a significant lead in worldwide performance of industrial R&D. In the 1990s, the United States has had a large trade surplus in advanced technologies and a smaller surplus from sale of intellectual property based on technological know-how. Survey results link industrial use of advance production technologies with competitiveness in foreign markets.
Chapter 7—Science and Technology: Public Attitudes and Public Understanding. More than 70% of the American public believes that the benefits of scientific research outweigh the drawbacks, and about 40% express a high level of interest in new scientific discoveries and new technologies. Americans are evenly divided, however, about the impacts of technologies such as nuclear power, genetic engineering, and space exploration.
Chapter 8—Economic and Social Significance of Scientific and Engineering Research. Experts in the field of assessing economic returns agree that R&D has a significant positive effect on economic growth and standards of living, but recognize that there can be a delay of 10–20 years for the impacts of basic research to be known.
The report is for sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. The stock number is 038-000-00592-8.
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The International Trade Commission (ITC), investigating a complaint that Japanese supercomputers were being "dumped," or sold below cost, in the United States, has determined that there is sufficient evidence of the allegation to warrant further investigation.
As a result, a decision on when NCAR can finalize a contract for the computers designed to upgrade scientists' capacity for predicting global warming and other climate trends will be delayed at least into 1997.
The ITC action allows for further review by the Department of Commerce on the question of whether those sales were for less than fair value and whether they would be injurious to American industry. A decision on the fair value issue is expected in January, and on the injury issue in June.
NCAR announced on 17 May that it had chosen the bid of Tokyo-based NEC over offers from U.S.-based Cray Research and another Japanese company. Three days later, Commerce told NSF that it believed the machine's cost of production "is substantially greater" than the NEC bid. On 29 July, Cray petitioned the ITC and Commerce to launch an investigation. (See the AMS Newsletter for July and August.)
"In light of the numerous questions raised about and interest expressed in this procurement, I am pleased that the issue of dumping is being properly addressed by the appropriate federal agencies," said Dr. Neal Lane, director of the National Science Foundation (NSF).
"The Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission have the statutory authority, the expertise and the established procedures to determine whether this offer is being made at less than fair value and whether it would be injurious to American industry," Lane explained.
"Until the dumping issue has been resolved by the agencies with the statutory authority to do so, it would be inappropriate for NSF to approve the procurement of the supercomputer. I am acutely aware that the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is operated by UCAR, needs state-of-the-art computational equipment to maintain U.S. leadership in climate modeling research. I feel, however, that acting now would be inconsistent with the responsible stewardship of taxpayer money."
With the delay in the decision, NCAR is looking for other options, such as leasing supercomputer time from another facility, according to Richard Anthes, UCAR president.
UCAR is an awardee of NSF. NCAR's announcement in May emphasized that no final decision had been made, but stipulated that it intended to "enter into negotiations" with NEC on what could amount to a $35 million contract. When the contract is completed, the equipment will be used at the NCAR complex in Boulder, CO.
If the contract with the Japanese were to be finalized, it would represent the first federally funded supercomputing contract ever awarded to a Japanese company.
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Eleven conferences and symposia will be held as part of the 77th AMS Annual Meeting in Long Beach, CA, 2–7 February 1997, according to conference officials.
In addition, five short courses will be held prior to the conference on 1 and 2 February.
Conferences and symposia are: 13th International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology; 13th Conference on Hydrology; Ninth Conference on Atmospheric Radiation; Eighth Symposium on Global Change Studies; Seventh Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; Seventh Conference on Climate Variations; Sixth Symposium on Education; Third Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; First Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems; Symposium on the Land–Atmosphere System—An Interdisciplinary Approach; and a Special Symposium on Boundary Layer and Turbulence (Land Surface).
Short Courses will be: Passive Microwave Satellite Radiometry, WSR-88D Precipitation Estimation for Hydrological Applications, Time Series Analysis Methods and Applications in the Atmospheric Sciences, Human Factors Applied to Graphical User Interface Design, and Recent Advance in the Use of Quantitative Satellite Data in Meteorological Analysis and Forecasting.
The Annual Meeting, which is cosponsored by the WMO, AGU, AIAA, ASA, AAEE, ACS, AWRA, AGI, AAG, and GSA, will be held in the Long Beach Convention Center. Further details on the meeting can be obtained on the AMS Home Page at http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS
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A prototype robotic aircraft called Theseus with potential capabilities to support NASA's Mission to Planet Earth project has completed two test flights at Dryden Flight Research Center, CA.
The first flight was conducted 24 May but lasted only 61 seconds because of propeller speed problem. The second flight on 1 July lasted 1 hour and 17 minutes and reached an altitude of 8,000 feet.
"The aircraft flew great, exactly as predicted," said Einar Enevoldson, who operated the remote controls for piloting the aircraft.
The aircraft, built and operated by Aurora Flight Sciences, Manassas, VA, is designed to provide a high-altitude, long-endurance platform for carrying scientific, remote-sensing payloads.
The twin-engine, remotely-piloted vehicle has a 140-foot wingspan and is constructed largely from composite materials. Powered by two 80-horsepower, turbocharged piston engines that drive twin 9-foot-diameter propellers, Theseus is designed to fly autonomously at high altitudes, with takeoff and landing under the active control of a ground-based pilot in a ground control station "cockpit."
With the potential ability to carry 700 pounds of scientific instruments to altitudes of 60,000 feet for durations of greater than 24 hours, Theseus is intended to support research in areas such as stratospheric ozone depletion and the atmospheric effects of future high-speed civil transport aircraft engines. Instruments carried aboard the craft also would be able to validate satellite-based global environment change measurements made by NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS).
Theseus was built for NASA under a $4.9 million fixed-price contract by Aurora and its partners, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV, and Fairmont State College, Fairmont, WV. The aircraft was built in Fairmont.
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Warming of tropical sea temperatures may be contributing to the melting of high-altitude tropical glaciers, according to researchers at NOAA's Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC) and Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
In the 12 September issue of Nature, Henry F. Diaz of CDC and Nicholas Graham of Scripps write that a general warming of the climate system in recent decades is related to long-term increase of sea surface temperatures in the Tropics and the resulting enhancement of the tropical hydrologic cycle. According to the researchers, higher sea surface temperatures and atmospheric humidity in recent decades are consistent with glacial records, which indicate that temperatures in the Tropics are warmer than at any time in the past 2000–3000 years.
"Although changes in temperatures are likely the dominant mechanism producing this melting, there is also evidence from both observations and models that the changes in temperature have been accompanied by widespread increases in the moisture content in the lower atmosphere due to the higher sea surface temperatures," according to Diaz. These increases in atmospheric humidity would also contribute to accelerated melting rates, he explained.
The study compared temperature changes in the Tropics, based on instrument records for the past three to four decades, to the results of a general circulation model. "These observations underscore the unusual nature of the general warming of the climate system that has been recorded in recent years, especially the melting of tropical ice cap margins, Diaz reported.
Whether this recent increase is natural or caused by human activity remains to be seen, he said. "Regardless of cause, physical evidence suggests that high-elevation environments may be particularly sensitive to long-term changes in tropical sea surface temperature and atmospheric humidity. These factors are likely to impact the hydrologic and ecological balances of high-altitude zones throughout the globe, but especially in the Tropics," Diaz explained.
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Ozone depletion over the South Pole this year could be worse than in 1995 by as much as 10%, according to an analysis of ozone trends from balloon measurements taken at the South Pole in the past 10 years.
David J. Hofmann, director of NOAA's Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) in Boulder, CO, wrote in the 12 September issue of Nature that the variation in ozone depletion at the South Pole from one year to the next may be related to changing stratospheric wind patterns and the transport of air from the Tropics to the poles.
"We are seeing increased ozone depletion at the South Pole, which we believe was caused by a change of wind in the Tropics from westerly to easterly," Hofmann wrote. "In particular, ozone loss rates have been greater in years where the winds at very high altitudes have been easterly for several months early in the calendar year preceding the ozone hole period." This may cause more ozone-depleting halogens (chlorine and bromine containing molecules) to be transported from the Tropics to the poles prior to the formation of the winter vortex, causing greater ozone depletion the following spring, he reported. If this hypotheses is correct, he explained, ozone depletion in September 1996 should again be high.
The fact that ozone depletion over the South Pole maybe worse in 1996 than in 1995 doesn't necessarily mean that overall ozone depletion is increasing. "We're just starting to understand the interannual variabilities better," according to Hofmann. Understanding the cause of this variability in ozone loss rate will be important for the detection of the expected recovery of the ozone hole early in the next century, he continued.
Ozone depletion in the Antarctic has been especially severe since 1992, according to Hofmann, caused in part by aerosols from the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption, which enhance the ozone-destroying ability of the man-made halogens. The effects from that eruption, although one of the longer lasting events in recent years, have largely subsided, so that the 1995 ozone hole was not as deep as in 1993 or 1994, Hofmann reported. The ozone hole in 1995 was measured at 129 Dobson units during the late September–early October period, a slight improvement over the 119 Dobson units measured in 1994 and the 109 Dobson units measured in 1993.
Hofmann wrote that this is not a sign of recovery from ozone depletion in Antarctica. The ozone hole will continue to fluctuate for some years to come in spite of recent research that shows that chlorine and other ozone-depleting chemicals are starting to decline in the lower atmosphere. Based on measurements and models, Hofmann believes the level of ozone-depleting chemicals in the Antarctic stratosphere should peak in about the year 2000 and then begin a slow decrease.
"Full recovery of the ozone hole is not expected until about 2050," he wrote. "But the more we understand the fluctuation and variabilities, the better we can monitor the recovery."
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