Editor: Jim Elliot
Contributors: Alan Weinstein, Ginny Frost, and Julie Burba
Copy Editor: Leah Whalen
GOVERNMENT NEWS
NEWS FROM EUROPE
WEATHER AND CLIMATE
SATELLITES AND SPACE
ENVIRONMENT AND GLOBAL CHANGE
GENERAL NEWS
PEOPLE IN THE NEWS
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
Although NOAA Administrator Dr. D. James Baker and NWS Director Elbert W. (Joe) Friday Jr. tried to assure Senate Commerce Committee members that planned budget cuts and personnel reductions in NWS would have no direct impact on severe weather warning programs, other witnesses expressed concern that the cutbacks will have a negative impact that could affect public safety.
The hearing, held 15 May, was chaired by Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN), who filled in for Committee Chairman John McCain (R-AZ). The session opened with remarks by Sen. Connie Mack (R-FL) and Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D-MD), both of whom expressed concern as to whether the NWS would be able to provide adequate warnings to their constituents in the event of a severe storm or hurricane. Sen. Mack had support from William Wagner Jr., Director, Emergency Management for Monroe County, FL, and Sen. Sarbanes introduced Jim Mathias, Mayor of Ocean City, MD, both of whom underlined their dependence on the NWS for the safety of their communities. "In light of the increasingly unpredictable occurrence of natural disasters in recent years," Frist explained, "it is critical that the NWS has adequate resources at its disposal to carry out" its important responsibilities. He said that committee members' understanding of how the staff cuts will impact the NWS now and in the future was among the reasons for the hearing, as was the gaining of "the underlying reason for the cuts."
"A strong and stable NWS is the nation's vanguard for natural hazards prediction and mitigation," NOAA Administrator D. James Baker said. "With a growing population, the United States is becoming more vulnerable to environmental hazards and catastrophic loss. Losses from severe weather between 1991 and 1993 were 1071 deaths and $73 billion in damages."
Since 1990, he continued, "insurance providers worldwide have paid out $48 billion for weather-related losses, compared with losses of $14 billion for the entire decade of the 1980s." In contributing to a balanced budget, Baker said, NOAA—like all Federal agencies—is utilizing resources more effectively, discontinuing doing things that are not a federal role, identifying and realizing opportunities for savings, and focusing the efforts of government on what matters to people.
"The FY97 appropriations for NWS base operations is $27.5 million less than the amount appropriated in FY96," Baker explained. "Of this amount, $17 million was requested by the administration in the president's FY97 budget, and $10.5 million was identified by the Congress for permanent streamlining of operations and staffing levels at NWS central headquarters in the national capital area. In addition to the $27.5 million reduction, the NWS . . . has had to absorb approximately $9.7 million in pay-related inflation and other mandatory pay-related costs and estimates that up to $5 million will be needed for personnel separations. This totals to $42.2 million base operations budget shortfall for FY97. This figure recently has been revised downward to $41.5 million through a $700,000 reprogramming request . . .."
Baker said NOAA and NWS have agreed on a set of ground rules for accomplishing the reductions. In priority order, they are:
Baker warned, however, that the NWS "cannot sustain these temporary reductions in FY98 without affecting the provision of warnings and services to the public. For example, the NWS is deferring equipment maintenance and reducing operational stock supplies and training in FY97 and intends to restore these activities in FY98. Overall, the FY97 proposed actions will result in the abolishment of about 185 encumbered and vacant positions in the NWS, including about 113 in the national capital area."
The temporary actions taken under the FY97 budget, he said, "cannot be sustained beyond FY97 without potentially adding serious impacts to services to the public. These temporary actions include reductions to field staff COMET training, centralized logistics quantities, operational equipment replacements, operational supplies and stock levels, and operations and maintenance for the NWS local area network. Funds will be needed as well, he explained, to pay for unavoidable cost increases, including salary increases and other inflationary costs.
"It does little good," Baker emphasized, "to have the world's most sophisticated technological infrastructure for the provision of weather services, if the essential staffing, program and support requirements of the agency cannot be sustained.
". . . (W)e have reached the point where any further budget reductions would directly jeopardize public safety, the protection of property and the most efficient conduct of commerce."
Friday pointed out that the United States experiences considerably more severe weather situations than other countries. "In a typical year," he said, "the United States experiences over 10 000 violent thunderstorms, 5000 floods, 1000 tornadoes, and several hurricanes."
The NWS, he explained, is hoping to complete its $4.5 billion technological modernization program in the next 3 years. The goals of the modernization, he said, are to achieve uniform, consistent, and high-quality weather services nationwide; improve forecasting; provide more reliable detection and prediction of severe weather and flooding; permit more cost-effective operations; and achieve higher productivity. Already, he pointed out, improvements brought about by modernization are evident. Before modernization, in some cases, he said, lead time for tornado warnings was zero or negative, providing warning only after the tornado touched down. Now, the average lead time nationally is 11 minutes, he explained. Miami residents had 7 minutes' warning when that highly televised tornado swept through that city recently. During the March tornadoes in Arkansas, he said, NWS provided the public with an average of 18 to 32 minutes' warning. Also, he said, "we are now able to predict the 24-hour landfall for hurricanes 25 miles more accurately than we were 2 years ago."
The FY97 budget shortfall represents approximately 10% of the NWS operating budget. "These cuts," he explained, "are particularly damaging . . . because most of the operating expenses are fixed, primarily in salaries and related expenses and in overhead such as rent, utilities, and communications." Of NWS's base operations budget, he said, 83% is dedicated to either field operations or central operations in support of field operations, "making budget reductions even more difficult to implement without impacting the provision of weather services to the public."
The budget reductions mandated by Congress, Friday said, were based on a headquarters staffing report submitted to Congress by the Inspector General of the Department of Commerce. The NWS responded to the report, Friday said, "pointing out three major deficiencies: it did not acknowledge inherent streamlining associated with NWS modernization and restructuring, did not recognize the importance of centralized operations and support functions, and recommended contracting certain operational functions without providing any cost analysis."
Friday said the NWS will accelerate the planned closure of Southern Region Headquarters in Ft. Worth, TX. The closure will result in the elimination of 61 positions and an annualized recurring savings of $4 million, he said. The Southern Region's management and administrative operations will be transferred to Central Region Headquarters in Kansas City, MO, and to the Eastern Region Headquarters in Bohemia, NY. As part of the transfer, the NWS plans to transfer two hurricane experts to the central region to assist in providing user/emergency coordination on hurricanes and other tropical storms. Additionally, the NWS will transfer one southern region employee to the Texas state emergency management office in Austin for approximately 2 years.
Friday and Baker both took pains to emphasize that the regional offices do not provide warning and forecast services to the public. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) expressed opposition to the closing of the Southern Region office and asked Friday to reconsider the decision. Friday said, however, that while he would prefer to have the four rather than three regional offices, he had virtually completed the employee replacement program required by the closing and if he stopped that process, he would have to go back to "ground zero," resulting in a "very negative impact on the program for a lot of reasons."
Friday said that of the 185 positions planned for elimination, 132 currently are filled. To accommodate the additional eliminations, he said, 16 RIFs, 57 buyouts, 49 reassignments and 10 optional retirements are planned. The permanent reductions in headquarters operations, he said, will affect the ability of the NWS to provide technical and operational support for field operations. As an example, he explained that the reductions could slow down the development of new software, delay sensor development activities and delay facilities maintenance and retrofitting activities for the new Weather Forecast Offices. The permanent reductions, he continued, will affect the NWS's ability to support its current operational infrastructure and eliminate certain user products. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction reductions will eliminate products for the marine and climate community, he said, as well as for the private meteorological community.
Dr. Ronald D. McPherson, Director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), but speaking as a private citizen, was another witness. McPherson, who also is president of the American Meteorological Society this year, said the FY97 allocation for NCEP—which operates nine prediction centers—is $34.8 million, a reduction of approximately 10% from FY96. He pointed out that in 1994 Baker had approved a restructuring of what was then known as the National Meteorological Center that had a complement of 434 full-time equivalents (FTEs). By January 1996, after restructuring had been approved by Congress, the complement had been reduced to 420 and, by January 1997, it was at 398. The target established under Vice President Gore's Reinventing Government Initiative was 388, to be reached by 1999, he said. To live within the FY97 budget allocation, he explained, a new target FTE ceiling of 355 was established, calling for a reduction-in-force of 43 FTEs. The largest single reduction was levied against the National Center Operations, which has the largest staff of any of the nine centers, he said. "It will be very difficult to discharge the NCO's duties after this reduction. Timeliness and reliability, the essential stuff of modern weather forecasting, will suffer, and, because NCO serves the entire NWS as well as every other user of NWS, all will feel the impact."
He said also that management had "attempted to minimize the impact" of the reductions on forecast and warning services by reducing the personnel on the midnight shift to a single forecaster at the five real-time service centers.
"This single forecaster is sufficient only to monitor the atmosphere for rapidly developing disturbances," he explained, "and would have to recall off-duty forecasters on overtime when necessary. All regular forecast products issued during these hours from the five centers . . . would be eliminated." This, he said, is an attempt to protect the warning program at the expense of the forecast program.
"In my professional judgment," he said, "these reductions are ill advised. If implemented, they would increase the risk of hazardous weather events being improperly handled. Tired, overworked people, no matter how conscientious . . . may experience impaired alertness and judgment at a time when sharp judgment is critical. This conclusion led four senior managers of the NWS . . . people of many years experience in operational meteorology . . . to advise the Administrator of NOAA that the reductions would impact public safety."
Also speaking as a private citizen was X. William Proenza, Director of the NWS Southern Regional Office in Ft. Worth, TX. Proenza cited facts showing that the southern region is the most meteorologically active region in the United States. During the 10-year period from 1984 through 1994, he explained, the area—which covers 10 states from New Mexico eastward to the Atlantic Coast including, in addition to New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Florida, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands—experienced almost 50% of the total severe weather events in the entire country.
In spite of protests from emergency management officials and others, he said, "the Department of Commerce, NOAA, and the NWS have undertaken a zealous campaign to close the Southern Region headquarters . . .." If the Southern Region headquarters is closed, he continued, "it will have an immediate and detrimental impact on the capability of the NWS to provide essential weather warning and forecast services to the people of Texas."
Proenza said the closing of the Southern Region Headquarters would jeopardize the NWS mission, disrupt people's lives in 10 states, and would be prohibitively expensive and "contrary to the previously expressed intent of the Congress."
Richard Hallgren, Executive Director of AMS, told the committee that while NOAA and NWS had made "a noble effort to minimize the impact of the budget reductions on the severe weather and flood warning system, they simply had an impossible task on their hands." He explained that past presidents of AMS had sent a letter to the Secretary of Commerce expressing their concern and advising him that "the risk of warning failure is now substantially increased."
He said he was "very concerned" about the large reductions in the headquarters structure. "They are far too large and too rapid. It seems incomprehensible that reductions of this magnitude can be taken without affecting the quality of the management of the service and the further implementation of the modernization of the Weather Service. It is not prudent to risk the large investment we are making in modernization with earlier-than-planned reductions at headquarters.
"We all know that the cuts at headquarters stemmed from a flawed study by Commerce's Inspector General. Initial drafts of this study mixed headquarters and centralized support functions, showing little understanding of the Service. Yet, these drafts of the report found their way into the hands of the OMB and the Congress and, therefore, the damage was done."
Continuing, Hallgren explained, "I really don't believe that the administration or the Congress intended to impose a reduction of over $40 million." He said NOAA earlier had indicated cuts of $27.5 million and only later indicated the cuts would amount to $40 million. "However, the lists of reductions that I have seen do not show where the additional cuts are coming from. I suspect this higher level of reduction means that the impact on services is even greater than originally thought.
"We seem to have streamlining on top of streamlining. The whole modernization plan . . . was aimed at making large improvements in the quality of the warning and forecast system without increasing—in fact with modest decreases—in personnel. The strategic plan for the modernization included reducing the number of forecast offices by a factor of 2. This plan was developed before strategic planning was in vogue, before streamlining was popular and before 'reinventing government' was around. It is time for the government to complete the modernization, installing all of the equipment, including AWIPS, and providing adequate staffing in the field offices and national centers, especially given the large improvements that one can already see in the quality of the warnings and forecasts now being issued by the Weather Service."
Hallgren argued that the FY97 budget reductions "are too deep." He explained, "Obviously the administration agrees they are too deep because they are asking the Congress to restore $10.8 million of the cuts in FY98. The $715,000 restoration made in the last month is a step in the right direction, but far short of what is needed this year. I believe it is not wise to reduce staffing to or below the levels planned for the completion of the modernization several years in advance of the completion of the modernization. I understand there are substantial FY97 carryover funds in NOAA that could be used to maintain necessary staffing."
The budget increases required for FY98, he explained, "are significantly, at least $10 million and possibly over $20 million, greater than the $10.8 million requested . . .." He encouraged the committee to think of the weather service modernization as a "continuing process," saying that the recent Red River floods demonstrated the need for advances in both science and technology and for communication of information to state, county, and local officials. Research and development, he said, must continue and, in fact, be expanded.
The AMS executive director warned that as the budget becomes tighter, partnerships between federal agencies will suffer and "it is imperative that OMB and the Congress find a way to be sensitive to the problem and to ensure that these partnerships are not seriously degraded unwittingly when budgets are reduced."
Under questioning by Sen. Frist, Hallgren suggested that Congress take a long-term approach to the situation. He pointed out that the NWS is enjoying more improvement under the modernization program than had been anticipated. But he complained that actions being taken with the program are designed more out of consideration to balance the budget than for the safety of the public. "There is no reason why this country cannot afford a good, solid, best weather service in the future." He suggested that Congress plan adding $25–$30 million a year to the NWS budget over the next 20 years. "That's not much more than 10% of what you've invested in hardware," he explained. "Let's do it." And he suggested that the process begin with the FY98 budget. "There is plenty of time right now, this year, to slow down some of the cuts."
| Top of Document |
In a study of NOAA's National Weather Service, the Kanawha Institute for the Study of the Future reached a number of conclusions about NWS services and offered 11 recommendations for improving its operations.
As outlined by Joseph Coates, Kanawha's president, in a speech last month before the NOAA Dissemination Technology Conference in Washington, DC (see May issue), the study indicated better services could be provided for small business organizations, all of rural America, and the health sector.
The recommendations included the following.
| Top of Document |
from Stuart J. D. Schwartzstein, Associate Director for Science and Technology Policy, Office of Naval Research (ONREUR)
It is still much too soon—less than a month since the new government has come in—to tell what impact the Labour victory will have on science and technology policy in the United Kingdom. There was not a lot of debate over science and technology policy during the campaign, nor was Labour's spokesman for science and technology, Adam Ingram, a high-profile figure. There are, however, already a number of indications of Labour's approach and what we can expect to see, including the following.
Many in the scientific community believe, as contended by an editorial (10 May) in the New Scientist that "science deserves better," that this bureaucratic arrangement is not satisfactory and that, instead, there should have been a science minister with full cabinet status.
But while retaining the status quo, Labour has also indicated that there would be a "self-scrutiny" by OST, as well as by the Council for Science and Technology.
In addition, there have been indications that Labour will:
Although it is obviously too soon to make judgments about Labour's policies and governance with respect to science and technology, Labour's closer relationship with Europe and interest in moving toward greater integration with Europe may well have long-term implications for both science and technology in the United Kingdom as well as relations in science and technology with non-European partners like the United States.
| Top of Document |
NOAA has issued an advisory regarding the presence of the early indications of El Niño conditions. Several of the forecast models for El Niño supported by NOAA, including the ones at the Climate Prediction Center, predicted the onset of a warm event already late in 1996. The models indicate continued warming through 1997.
At the same time, simultaneous ocean measurements taken by two orbiting NASA science instruments suggest that another weather-disrupting El Niño condition may be developing in the Pacific Ocean, with the potential of altering global weather patterns next winter.
Observations of conditions in the tropical Pacific are considered essential for the prediction of short-term (a few months to one year) climate variations. To provide necessary data, NOAA operates a network of buoys that measure temperature, currents and winds in the equatorial band. These buoys transmit data that are available to researchers and forecasters around the world in real time.
Sea surface height measurements taken by the radar altimeter onboard the joint U.S.–French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite and wind data collected by the NASA Scatterometer on Japan's Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) are being used together for the first time to diagnose changing oceanographic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The El Niño phenomenon is thought to be triggered when steady westward-blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows the large mass of warm water that normally is located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. This displaced pool of unusually warm water affects where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. The change in the wind strength and direction also impacts global weather patterns.
"NSCAT has observed two episodes of the reversal of the trade winds in the western Pacific, one at the end of December and one at the end of February. Both generated warm water masses, called Kelvin waves, that traveled across the Pacific and were measured by TOPEX/Poseidon," said Dr. Lee-Lueng Fu, TOPEX/Poseidon project scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, CA. "Kelvin waves are often a precursor to a warm state of the tropical Pacific, sometimes leading to an El Niño.
"Whether an El Niño event will occur cannot be determined by just examining the satellite data," Fu continued. "A computer model that couples ocean–atmosphere data, like the one used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is a necessary tool to issue scientifically based predictions. Now, for the first time, both TOPEX/Poseidon and NSCAT are observing and providing the best, near real-time view of global ocean winds and sea level ever obtained. These observations will help NOAA's model to predict the occurrence of El Niño."
El Niño is an abnormal state of the ocean–atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather around the globe. Among these consequences are increased rainfall across the southern tier of the United States and in Peru, sometimes resulting in destructive flooding and drought in northeast Brazil, southeastern Africa, and in the west Pacific. Better predictions of extreme climate episodes like floods and droughts could save the United States billions of dollars in damage costs.
El Niños (warm episodes) usually occur approximately every 2–7 years. Recent El Niño events occurred in 1976–77, 1982–83, 1986–87, 1991–93, and 1994–95. The first half of the 1990s is unusual in that 4 out of 5 years featured warm episode conditions in the tropical Pacific. However, a cold episode occurred in 1995–96 and its effects lingered until late 1996.
The climatic event has been given the name El Niño, a Spanish term for a "boy child," because the warm current first appeared off the coast of South America around Christmas. Past El Niño events have caused unusually heavy rain and flooding in California, unseasonably mild winters in the eastern United States, and severe droughts in Australia, Africa, and Indonesia. Better predictions of extreme climate episodes like floods and droughts could save the United States billions of dollars in damage costs. El Niño episodes usually occur approximately every 2–7 years.
Predicting the onset of a warm or cold phase is critical in helping water, energy, and transportation managers, and farmers plan for, avoid, or mitigate potential losses. Advances in improved climate predictions will also result in significantly enhanced economic opportunities, particularly for the national agriculture, fishing, forestry, and energy sectors, as well as social benefits.
The forecast model operated at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) used data collected by the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. "The use of TOPEX/Poseidon data clearly improved our forecast for the winter of 1996–97," said Dr. Ants Leetmaa, chief scientist at NCEP. "We currently use the data continuously for our operational ocean analyses and El Niño forecasts. The use of this data set enabled a clearer picture to be developed of the multiyear evolution of ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific that have resulted in the onset of the current warm episode. We have not yet had a chance to utilize the NSCAT data in the models but we anticipate that its use also will improve our forecast system."
"Since the beginning of the instrument's operation in September 1996, NSCAT has observed stronger than normal easterly winds in the central and western tropical Pacific, which might have piled up warm water in the west, as indicated by the higher than normal sea level and sea surface temperature," said Dr. W. Timothy Liu, NSCAT project scientist at JPL. "This is usually a precursor of subsequent anomalous warming in the east. Kelvin waves moving across the Pacific do not necessarily mean El Niño, but we are studying how these seasonal phenomena like Kelvin waves are related to events like El Niño that occur over several years. TOPEX/Poseidon and NSCAT will provide continuous, near real-time observations of the critical developments in the Pacific in the months to come."
The TOPEX/Poseidon satellite uses an altimeter to bounce radar signals off the ocean's surface to get precise measurements of the distance between the satellite and the sea surface. These data are combined with measurements from other instruments that pinpoint the satellite's exact location in space. Every ten days, scientists produce a complete map of global ocean topography, the barely perceptible hills and valleys found on the sea surface. With detailed knowledge of ocean topography, scientists can then calculate the speed and direction of worldwide ocean currents.
The NASA Scatterometer uses an array of sticklike antennas that radiate radar pulses in the Ku band across broad regions of the earth's surface. The way the radar signal bounces off the ocean's surface allows scientists to calculate both wind speed and direction. At any given time, NSCAT's antennas scan two swaths of ocean, one on either side of the satellite's near-polar, sun-synchronous 500-mile (800-km) orbit. The scatterometer takes 190 000 wind measurements per day, mapping more than 90% of the world's ice-free oceans every 2 days.
Both the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter and the NASA Scatterometer are radar instruments, which allows them to operate 24 hours a day, collecting data day or night, regardless of sunlight or weather conditions.
The following Internet sites can be accessed for more information.
TOPEX/Poseidon: http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/topex
NSCAT: http://winds.jpl.nasa.gov
NCEP: http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov:80/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
The ENSO advisory is available on the Climate Prediction Center's Web site at
http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov:80/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/
Climate forecasts for the next three seasons are available at http://nic.fb4.gov:80:8000/research/climate.html
| Top of Document |
A team of government and university scientists and student volunteers has for the first time observed a tornado close up with dual high-resolution Doppler radars, providing a never-before-seen two-dimensional view of a full-blown tornado, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced.
The team, called "Subvortex" and based at NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, OK, intercepted an F1 tornado 26 May, southwest of Tulsa. The Subvortex scientists scanned the slow-moving twister for 10 minutes with the two Doppler radars mounted on flatbed trucks. The information collected will ultimately help NOAA improve tornado watches and warnings, and reduce false alarms.
The group of about 20 Subvortex scientists and students is led by principal scientists Erik Rasmussen of the NOAA–University of Oklahoma Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorology, Jerry Straka and Josh Wurman of Oklahoma University, and Robert Davies-Jones of the National Severe Storms Laboratory.
The team also photographed the 26 May tornado and made a variety of meteorological measurements in and near the storm with a mobile mesonet. A mobile mesonet is comprised of cars specially equipped to measure weather conditions, with communications and computer links to the other vehicles in the Subvortex team.
The Subvortex researchers intercepted a second tornado later in the day south of Tulsa, and east of the first tornado.
The twin Dopplers on Wheels (DOWs), developed by Wurman, are unique truck-mounted research radars that can be positioned within a few kilometers of a tornadic storm to document in fine detail wind speeds and reflectivity. The radar scans the entire mesocyclone region (the area of rotating air) every 90 seconds, producing data that should provide major clues into how tornadoes form and persist.
In a typical operation, the Subvortex team leaders review NOAA satellite data and other NOAA weather information while at their National Severe Storms Laboratory base of operations. The team targets an area within a day or two drive of their Norman, OK, base where they believe weather patterns will likely produce a mesocyclone, a large rotating body of air that can spawn tornadoes.
The Subvortex team's two flatbed trucks, a field control vehicle, two prove vehicles, and assorted other support vehicles then set off for the target region, all the while fine tuning their approach with the latest weather information, often driving hundreds of miles to be in the right place at exactly the right time.
When the team arrives in the target area, they try to position themselves in the path of the approaching mesocyclone. After choosing a likely location, preferably a piece of high ground overlooking flatlands unobstructed by trees and houses, the two DOWs are parked up to a few kilometers apart, at right angles to each other so that they can get a two-dimensional view of the tornado's movement. With the 8-foot-diameter Doppler radars scanning the approaching storm and with hydraulic stabilizing legs dug in to steady the DOW trucks, the scientists then stand-by to photograph and measure the entire life cycle of the tornado.
Although it takes several minutes to move the DOWs once they have dug in, should the storm system shift, the team can and often will move with the weather system to continue their measurements.
Subvortex is a follow-up to the VORTEX tornado research project in 1994 and 1995, in which scientists intercepted 10 tornadoes and studied them close up using a suite of instruments, including Wurman's prototype Doppler on Wheels in the second year of the project. The new twin Dopplers being used in Subvortex are allowing scientists to get high-resolution radar coverage of tornado formation. Subvortex scientists are especially interested in the little understood rear flank downdraft region of a tornadic storm because it may play a key role in transporting rotation to the ground.
| Top of Document |
A NOAA-sponsored Disaster Survey Team, including representatives of the U.S. Geological Survey and the Army Corps of Engineers, visited Minneapolis–St. Paul, MN, on 27–28 May and the Grand Forks, Bismarck, and Fargo areas of North Dakota on 29–30 May to conduct a post-event survey to examine all components of NWS performance related to an event, from preparedness through service delivery to public response during the April floods. The survey team included hydrologists, meteorologists, an engineer, a social scientist and a public information specialist. The NWS regularly conducts post-event surveys to determine what went well and should be repeated in similar situations by other NWS personnel and what did not go well, hoping to do better in the future. "Our focus is certainly not assessing blame," explained Edward Johnson, Chief of the NWS Hydrologic Operations Division in Silver Spring, MD, who, along with Tom Yorke, Chief, Office of Surface Water, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, is coleader of the team. "It's seeing how we can do better."
The nine-member, multiagency team will gather data for the preparation of a report on the flood. Preliminary findings are expected to be completed in 2 months, he said, with a more comprehensive report to follow. The study area is the entire basin, including the Red River and its tributaries. The team plans to build hydrological models in an effort to find out what caused flooding on the Red River and its tributaries and what forces were responsible for the devastation that hit Grand Forks on 18 April, according to Johnson. "We have multiple hypotheses, and we'll test all of them," he continued. "The problem isn't coming up with hypotheses, it's finding out what happened."
Factors that will be scrutinized include the role of bridges, the shape of the river's channel, and the depth of its bed, Johnson said. "The one thing that is absolutely true is that rivers change. They're alive," he explained.
In addition to Johnson and Yorke, other team members are Robert Hartman, Hydrologist-In-Charge, NWS California–Nevada River Forecast Center, Sacramento, CA; Larry Jensen, Meteorologist-In-Charge, NWS Weather Service Office, Las Vegas, NV; Andy Bryant, Service Hydrologist, NWS Service Office, Tucson, AZ; Donna Page, Hydrologist, Field Systems Group Leader, Hydrologic Research Lab, Silver Spring, MD; Roger Pielke Jr., Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; James Versteeg, Hydrologist, Army Corps of Engineers, Portland, OR; and Barry Reichenbaugh, Public Affairs Officer, NOAA/NWS.
| Top of Document |
The mixing of air in the upper levels of the earth's lower atmosphere, the roughly 7-mile thick surface layer called the troposphere, is the key to understanding many of the problems, such as global climate change, vexing atmospheric chemists, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist.
In the current issue of Science magazine, J. D. Mahlman, director of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, NJ, examines many of the little-understood mechanisms that control this mixing in the upper troposphere and the effects of this mixing on other atmospheric processes, including the impact of human sources of ozone and aerosols, the depletion of stratospheric ozone, and the effects of emissions from subsonic aircraft.
"The upper troposphere is a transition zone separating the distinctly different chemistries of the stratosphere (the atmosphere 7–30 miles above the earth's surface) from those of the lower troposphere. This region exchanges air with the stratosphere and the lower troposphere through various atmospheric transport processes," Mahlman explains.
"The effects of human-caused influences of ozone and aerosol concentrations in the upper troposphere are of current interest because of their potential contributions to climate change. For example, the sharp ozone losses observed in the lower stratosphere can influence chemical and climate changes in the upper troposphere by means of transport across the boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere," Mahlman said.
A north–south "stirring" of the atmosphere by cyclonic weather systems outside the Tropics may also explain the sharp, meandering, and intermittent midlatitude jet stream system that can be seen separating cyclones and anticyclones in geostationary satellite images.
Although global, three-dimensional mathematical model runs by Mahlman and others have improved weather forecasts and climate simulations, Mahlman points out the chemical models depend on limited data from a small number of focused field experiments and on long-term measurements of chemicals in the atmosphere, wind, atmospheric pressure, and temperature from to few locations.
| Top of Document |
Senior officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration marked the beginning of the 1997 hurricane season by introducing the newest high-tech tool in the hurricane forecasting arsenal of the National Weather Service: a high-altitude Gulfstream-IV jet that is expected to improve landfall and intensity forecasts by up to 20%.
The specially equipped jet, the first of its kind in the world, was unveiled at NOAA's annual hurricane season kick-off press conference, held this year at NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, FL. It will begin hurricane surveillance operations during this year's season, which runs from 1 June to 30 November.
"The Secretary of Commerce and NOAA have made a commitment to create the best weather service in the world through modernization—an effort that has already resulted in significant improvements in public service and hurricane safety preparedness," said D. James Baker, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "With NOAA's G-IV jet—the newest element in weather service modernization—NOAA forecasters will for the first time have atmospheric data at high altitudes where steering currents direct the motion of hurricanes."
"Data from the G-IV jet will supplement the low- and midaltitude data collected by 'hurricane hunter' aircraft that penetrate hurricanes, giving us a complete picture of the atmosphere in, over, and around a developing hurricane," said Elbert (Joe) Friday Jr., NOAA's assistant administrator for weather services.
"In Florida and the Gulf and Atlantic coastal states, the use of new hurricane prediction models by the National Hurricane Center that include 'hurricane hunter' research data has reduced the errors in 24-hour landfall forecasts by more than 25 miles in the past 3 years alone," Friday said. "For every mile we don't have to 'overwarn' and evacuate, we save as much as $1 million. We expect the new G-IV jet to improve this forecasting accuracy even more."
According to Jerry Jarrell, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, increasing coastal populations have put more people at risk during hurricanes, and that barrier islands are especially vulnerable to rapidly rising waters known as storm surge. It is difficult to evacuate people from these areas because roadways have not kept pace with population growth.
"Tools such as the new G-IV jet that help forecasters predict the track of hurricanes will help coastal residents prepare for hurricanes, but these tools are only part of the equation," Jarrell warned. "No matter how vital technology, emergency management procedures and disaster assistance are before, during and after the storm, people should remember that they are ultimately responsible for preparing for their own safety and protecting their own property. This is a message that must not be lost in the wave of new technology."
The G-IV jet will be housed with NOAA's P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft at the Aircraft Operations Center and flown by pilots of the NOAA Corps, the agency's commissioned service. AOC is managed by the Office of NOAA Corps Operations. AOC engineers are responsible for maintaining and designing modifications for NOAA's aircraft.
| Top of Document |
from Bob Henson, National Center for Atmospheric Research
In the past 8 years, three U.S. hurricanes—Andrew (1992), Hugo (1989), and Opal (1995)—have wreaked a total of over $40 billion in damage. However, according to a new study, this number does not reflect any unusual increase in hurricane strength or frequency. Instead, it indicates that more and more Americans have put themselves and their property at risk by flocking to vulnerable coastal locations. The population shift could spell further trouble if hurricanes again make landfall as often as they did in the 1940s or 1960s.
"Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1925–1995" was presented by Roger Pielke (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO) and Christopher Landsea (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL) on 22 May in Fort Collins, CO, at the 22nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, sponsored by the American Meteorological Society.
Pielke and Landsea note that a variety of sources from the U.S. Senate to Newsweek magazine have linked global warming to the past decade's rise in hurricane damages. Yet most of the Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1970 have seen tropical cyclones occurring at a less frequent rate than the century-long average. Only in 1995 and 1996 (the two busiest consecutive seasons on record) did the pace pick up significantly. Some climatologists now believe that a natural multidecadal cycle will inevitably return to a period of increased Atlantic hurricane activity similar to the 1940s–1960s.
How might that affect today's society? Pielke and Landsea examined landfalling U.S. hurricanes since 1925 and normalized their effects to 1995 values, taking into account three factors: 1) inflation, 2) a disproportionate increase over time in the number of Americans living near the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, and 3) increase in material wealth held by the average household (families own more possessions than ever before).
Through this analysis, Pielke and Landsea estimate that the 1926 Miami hurricane, which passed just north of Andrew's track across south Florida, then struck the Mobile, AL/Pensacola, FL region, would inflict some $72 billion in damages if it struck today. That storm was a category 4, one notch below the strongest ranking on the Saffir–Simpson scale, the hurricane rating system used by U.S. meteorologists.
The analysis also shows that seven hurricane seasons between 1940 and 1969 would have produced damages of more than $10 billion each had they occurred in 1995, while only three seasons since 1970 would have done the same.
"The normalized data indicate clearly that the United States has been fortunate in recent decades with regard to storm losses. The data also refute recent claims that the rapid increase in nonnormalized damages is due to climatic changes," says Pielke. According to Landsea, "The normalized damages suggest that the nation should expect about $5 billion in damages per year, and substantially more than that if we are entering a regime of more active hurricane conditions."
If the normalization methodology is any indication, Pielke adds, "It is only a matter of time before the nation experiences a $50 billion or greater storm, with multibillion-dollar losses becoming increasingly frequent. Climate fluctuations which return the Atlantic basin to a period of more frequent storms will enhance the chances that this time occurs sooner, rather than later."
A draft of the referenced paper is available at http://www.dir.ucar.edu/esig/hp_roger/hurr_norm.html
| Top of Document |
Before you surf the waves at the beach this summer, surf the World Wide Web to find out just how warm or cold the ocean water might be.
Average water temperatures for the country's beaches are now on-line, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced. NOAA's National Oceanographic Data Center in Silver Spring, MD, has placed the temperatures on-line to provide useful information for planning beach activities such as swimming, fishing, or surfing.
Water temperatures are given for beaches along the Atlantic Coast from Eastport, ME, to Key West, FL; along the Gulf Coast from Key West to South Padre Island, TX; and along the Pacific Coast from Seattle, WA, to Scripps Pier, CA. Data for Puerto Rico, Bermuda, and parts of Mexico are also included.
The water temperatures presented in NODC's Water Temperature Guide to Beaches in the United States are climatological averages based on observations from NOAA's tide stations and data buoys. These average water temperatures were computed from long-period records ranging from several years to several decades, depending on how long observations had been taken at a given station.
"Although ocean conditions vary from year to year, water temperatures are less variable than air temperatures, so these averages can provide useful information for planning beach activities," said Henry Frey, director of the data center.
NODC's holdings include datasets on ocean currents, sea level, ocean winds and waves, ocean pollutants, marine biological data, and satellite data on sea surface temperatures. NODC also conducts ongoing oceanographic data exchange with numerous other countries including Argentina, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Mexico, the People's Republic of China, Peru, Russia, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom.
The data can be found on the World Wide Web at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/NODC-WNew/wtg.shtml
| Top of Document |
A NASA ER-2 aircraft, complete with a full array of science instrument packages, recently conducted its first operational mission at an altitude of 70 000 feet, a key region for atmospheric research.
The vehicle currently is on deployment to Alaska for missions over the North Pole in support of a project known as POLARIS, which stands for Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer. NASA has two such vehicles in its ER-2 fleet based at the Agency's Ames Research Center, Mountain View, CA. The ER-2 is a civilian version of the U-2 aerial reconnaissance plane.
A program to modernize the vehicles by making them lighter, more fuel efficient and more productive was completed recently. Over the next year, these improvements will increase significantly the size of science payloads and enhance the altitude performance of the ER-2s in support of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth enterprise.
Following a recent flight, Jim Barrilleaux, an ER-2 pilot and acting chief of Ames's High Altitude Missions branch, expressed his surprise at the magnitude of difference in feel and performance of the vehicle. "It flies like a completely new aircraft," he said. "It feels really tight."
Earth scientists also are excited about the enhanced capability. "It is really critical that we have access to consistent measurements at this key altitude, which is an intermediate region between aerosol particle-driven processes measured by standard aircraft-based sensors and gas-phase processes monitored by orbiting satellites," said Dr. Michael Kurylo, manager of the Upper Atmosphere Research Program at NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC.
The first deployment of an upgraded ER-2 currently is being conducted over the North Pole through May 15. The present POLARIS payload utilizes two large superpods attached to the wings. This more than doubles the available volume for science instruments, while still permitting operation at enhanced altitudes of 70 000 feet and above, according to flight engineers.
The POLARIS mission is seeking to understand the fundamental chemistry that dominates the naturally occurring seasonal reduction of ozone over the pole in the course of the Arctic summer. Many of the chemical reactions in which project scientists are interested in occur at altitudes in the 75 000-foot range. Now, even a fully loaded ER-2 can operate approximately 2500 feet higher than previously possible due to lower fuel requirements and lighter aircraft weight. This increased altitude capability permits extension of in-place measurements for validating and upgrading existing models of the upper atmosphere.
Additional information about POLARIS can be obtained at
http://cloud1.arc.nasa.gov/polaris
| Top of Document |
Air traffic delays due to poor visibility caused by weather can be virtually eliminated if technology being developed by U.S. industry and government looks as good in the air as it does on the ground.
NASA's Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, is working with a consortium led by TRW Space & Electronics Group, Redondo Beach, CA, that is preparing to demonstrate in flight a weather-piercing camera that has allowed researchers to see through fog, smoke, and clouds. System checkout will begin later this month, followed by 60 hours of test and demonstration flights in September.
The camera "sees" in the millimeter wave portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, a portion that is invisible to the human eye. It produces video images that enable a pilot to discern features like runways, obstacles, and the horizon.
These features are sufficient to safely land, take off, roll out, and taxi at any airline terminal in the country, not just the three dozen or so major airports that have costly systems to aid in low-visibility approach and landings. The camera is a passive sensor that does not emit signals in an airport environment, allowing multiple equipped aircraft to operate simultaneously on the ground without risk of interference.
"This sensor program directly supports NASA's new goal to safely triple capacity at our nation's commercial airports within the next 10 years—regardless of fog, clouds, smoke and dust, or other conditions that normally limit pilot visibility," said Tom Campbell, head of Langley's Electromagnetic Research Branch.
In 1994, the TRW-led Passive Millimeter Wave Camera Consortium was awarded a multiyear, $15 million cost-sharing contract under the Department of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's Defense Dual-Use Technology Initiative to adapt this technology to an airborne camera for military and civilian users.
Langley has served as the government's principal representative and is funding the flight test element of the program.
In addition, Langley is performing lab tests to determine which materials are most "invisible" to millimeter waves and, therefore, good candidates for the protective nose radome that will house the camera on the flight test aircraft. The tests also will provide the consortium's radome design team with data about optimum material thicknesses, protection from rain erosion, and protection from static buildup.
The aircraft is a one-of-a-kind Air Force C-135-C aircraft nicknamed the "Speckled Trout," which will be fitted with the millimeter wave camera and its new radome this summer. Once installed, the camera will generate video images of the forward scene in low-visibility conditions. These images will be displayed on a see-through heads-up display suspended between the pilot and the windscreen.
The sensor uses a focal plane array of about 1000 receivers made up of monolithic millimeter wave integrated circuits developed by TRW. Each of these complex circuits, formed on a sliver of gallium arsenide, replaces bulky, heavy, and costly components, resulting in a compact device.
"We're very excited about what we have produced under this program," said Dr. Steven Fornaca of TRW, the consortium's program manager. "Based on the images we have acquired under low-visibility conditions, and the quality of the receivers we've developed, we are confident that we are bringing to the aviation market a needed product that can be manufactured efficiently and at low cost."
Other consortium members are McDonnell Douglas, Long Beach, CA.; Honeywell, Minneapolis, MN; Composite Optics Inc., San Diego, CA; NASA Ames Research Center, Mountain View, CA; U.S. Air Force Wright Labs, Dayton, OH; U.S. Air Force Flight Test Center, Edwards Air Force Base, CA; and the U.S. Army Research Lab, Adelphi, MD.
| Top of Document |
from Scott Rayder, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Ozone depletion, ultraviolet radiation, climate change, and human-caused pollutants pose a more serious threat to the pristine environment of the Arctic than previously believed, according to a report from the eight-nation Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program.
"The report reveals serious gaps in our present knowledge, which prevent us from making firm predictions on how the Arctic will respond to future changes," said E.C. Weatherhead, editor and lead author of the report's chapter on climate change, ozone, and UV radiation.
Weatherhead, a researcher at the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Air Resources Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., suggested that present international resources to study climate change and UV radiation in the Arctic may not be adequate to provide the knowledge needed to preserve the region as we know it today.
The authors note that in addition to the long-term decline of ozone in the Arctic stratosphere, episodes of very low ozone have been observed. Of particular interest is the identification in the report of two different types of ozone "holes" or areas of decreased ozone concentration in and near the Arctic. These two types of ozone holes include areas that are small (a few hundred kilometers), which are dynamic and are usually associated with the transport of low ozone air masses from lower latitudes, and larger holes (over a thousand kilometers), which develop within the Arctic vortex and are believed to be caused by several factors, including cold temperatures in combination with human-made ozone-depleting substances. Both types of holes are most common in the spring and seem to be increasing in frequency and severity, although further study of these phenomena needs to be made. The occurrence of these holes in springtime is particularly damaging because ecosystems and humans are more vulnerable to the effects of UV radiation at this time.
According to Weatherhead and her colleagues, the climate of the Arctic can influence the rest of the earth by increasing sea level through glacial melt and by altering oceanic circulation responsible for transporting colder water from the Arctic to lower latitudes. The authors of this chapter also believe that recent increases in surface UV in winter and spring are adversely affecting ecosystems and human health in the Arctic.
"Eye damage and weakening of the immune system are of particular concern to people living in the Arctic because of the difficulties and cost associated with obtaining medical care," Weatherhead said.
Currently, there is no internationally coordinated effort to examine research on UV and climate change in the Arctic. However, the International Arctic Science Committee has proposed a comprehensive, international effort to probe the effects of UV in the Arctic and two programs to assess the regional effects of climate change.
The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program was established in 1991 to coordinate circumpolar Arctic pollution monitoring and assessment activities as part of the Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy. During the past 5 years, many scientific studies have been undertaken to investigate the present and possible future pollution of the Arctic and the consequences for Arctic ecosystems, including human populations. Results of the studies that have contributed to the AMAP assessment of the State of the Arctic Environment were to be presented and discussed during AMAP's Symposium on Contaminants in the Arctic that began 1 June in Tromso, Norway.
The AMAP assessment drew from existing documents, publications, and sponsored research. This compendium of information on the Arctic is a unique combination of information from a cross section of scientific disciplines, including biology, anthropology, medicine, atmospheric chemistry, and physics.
The eight circumpolar countries that take part in AMAP include Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States.
| Top of Document |
from Scott Rayder, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
New, possibly biological, oceanic mechanisms are involved in removing methyl bromide, an ozone-depleting chemical, from the atmosphere, suggest two recent research papers published by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Based on this research, these scientists also believe that the atmospheric lifetime of methyl bromide is shorter than was previously estimated. Bromine, a chemical derived from methyl bromide, is estimated to be about 50 times more effective in depleting stratospheric ozone than the principal ozone-destroying chemical, chlorine.
The most recent study, published in the 15 May 1997 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, by Shari Yvon-Lewis and James Butler of NOAA's Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory in Boulder, CO, incorporates previously reported data on presumably biological removal mechanisms into a global model of gas exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. The study suggests that the atmospheric lifetime of methyl bromide is even shorter than previously predicted. Butler, principal investigator of these studies, stated, "It now appears that loss of atmospheric methyl bromide to the ocean is just about as fast as oxidation in the atmosphere, which historically has been considered the predominant removal mechanism for methyl bromide."
In the earlier paper, scientists conducted a study of the high-latitude waters near Antarctica and the atmosphere above them, determining that the ocean there removes methyl bromide from the atmosphere. It had previously been suggested that these waters, unlike most of the open ocean, could be a large source of methyl bromide. These results, published in the 15 January 1997 issue of Geophysical Research Letters by Juergen Lobert, from NOAA's CMDL, and coauthors, indicated that some mechanisms other than the known chemical removal processes were also responsible for degrading methyl bromide in seawater.
Yvon-Lewis and Butler said that, according to their calculations, the lifetime of methyl bromide in the atmosphere is about 0.7 years. The calculated lifetime of methyl bromide has gradually declined from a high of 2.0 years in 1992 to the present figure as research in this topic has progressed. The researchers looked at 40 years of wind speed and ocean temperature measurements across the globe, as well as recent measurements of methyl bromide concentrations from research cruises and laboratory studies, to reach this conclusion.
Unlike the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons, which are entirely man-made, methyl bromide has both natural and man-made sources. Major human-related sources of this gas include biomass burning and fumigation of soils, produce, and buildings. It appears that fumigation emissions may constitute 20%–30% of all methyl bromide produced, but further research is being conducted to refine this estimate. Although there is some uncertainty, studies suggest that man-made methyl bromide is responsible for 3%–10% of global stratospheric ozone destruction. It has been identified as a Class 1 ozone-depleting substance and its production is to be phased out in the near future according to current international agreements.
| Top of Document |
Using space-age technology, NASA researchers are studying how "urban forests" may allow cities to continuously grow while maintaining air quality and the environment, as well as lower cooling costs during sweltering summer months.
Collaborating with ten Atlanta schools, the Atlanta Regional Commission and the Environmental Protection Agency, two NASA researchers from the Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, began a study in Atlanta to learn how rapid urbanization affects temperature and air quality, and what can be done to lessen the impact.
The researchers, Dr. Jeff Luvall and Dr. Dale Quattrochi, are studying bubble-like accumulations of hot air, called urban heat islands, that have developed as Atlanta has grown during the past 20 years. "Urban heat islands result when naturally vegetated surfaces are replaced with asphalt, concrete, rooftops and other man-made materials," said Quattrochi.
According to Quattrochi, the temperatures of artificial surfaces can be 20–40° higher than those of vegetated surfaces. "Materials, such as asphalt, store much of the sun's energy and remain hot long after sunset," said Quattrochi. "This produces a dome over the city of temperatures 5–10° higher than air temperatures over adjacent rural areas."
"The more a city grows—replacing trees and grass with buildings and roads—the warmer it becomes, increasing peak power demands. To meet these demands, power plants must utilize fossil fuels to a greater extent, which ultimately have a negative impact on air quality," said Luvall. In findings from similar studies, the two researchers found that city parks and other urban areas with trees and grass were cooler than parking lots and areas with a high concentration of buildings. "These 'green areas' are cooler because they dissipate solar energy by absorbing surrounding heat and using it to evaporate water from leaves, thereby cooling the air," said Luvall. Urban forests also help cool cities by shading surfaces like asphalt, roofs, and concrete parking lots, preventing the initial heating and storage of heat.
To determine where Atlanta's hot spots are, a Lear Jet equipped with thermal imaging equipment flew over the metropolitan area on 11–12 May taking heat images at midday —the period of maximum heating—and again 12 hours later when surfaces began to cool.
On the ground, some Atlanta elementary students took part in the experiment by taking temperature and moisture readings of different surfaces at their schools in conjunction with the midday flight. The students will compare and verify their measurements with those recorded by instruments on the jet.
Information collected from the air study will allow researchers to understand the effect of tree cover—or lack thereof—on Atlanta's temperature and air quality. These findings also will provide Atlanta's urban planners a foundation to determine the benefits of developing and maintaining urban forests. Additional benefits may come from building plans that incorporate trees to shade roofs and reduce the heat load on houses and buildings, thus reducing power requirements.
| Top of Document |
A new federal-state center that opened 17 May at the Hatfield Marine Science Center in Newport, OR, will produce maps that will help local governments identify hazardous areas that can be evacuated during tsunami emergencies.
The tsunami mapping center is a joint effort of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the U.S. Geological Survey, the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the states of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington. The center will be staffed by two scientists, with an annual budget of $200,000.
The center will begin mapping efforts this year in Washington in the areas of Gray's Harbor, Willapa Bay, and Long Beach from Moclips to the Columbia River and in the Gold Beach and Astoria–Warrenton areas of Oregon in cooperation with the Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology and the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries. Similar mapping work is expected to follow in Alaska and California in 1998 and in Hawaii in 1999.
A tsunami is a series of ocean waves that can be generated by earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and even meteorite impacts. They can cause catastrophic loss of life and property damage when they sweep over coastal areas.
"Because of the likelihood of earthquakes, communities along the entire west coast of North America, particularly Alaska and the area from northern California to Washington, as well as Hawaii and other Pacific islands, are under the constant threat of potentially devastating tsunamis," said Eddie Bernard, director of NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle.
"The new mapping center will augment existing tsunami mitigation efforts by both the states and the federal government, including NOAA's Alaska and Pacific Tsunami Warning Centers that warn Alaska, California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii of approaching tsunamis.
"NOAA has also begun the installation of a network of real-time tsunami detection buoys that will telemeter measurements of tsunamis in the deep ocean to U.S. coastal areas. We plan to deploy the first of these buoys off Alaska in July," Bernard said.
Tsunami evacuation signs and public information material will be unveiled at the tsunami inundation mapping center opening, which will be held in conjunction with the opening of a new U.S. Fish and Wildlife Coastal Field Office and an expanded public wing of the Hatfield Marine Science Center.
| Top of Document |
House Committee on Science Chairman F. James Sensenbrenner Jr. and Ranking Democrat George E. Brown Jr. have asked the General Accounting Office (GAO) to undertake a study of the situation at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) in Upton, NY.
"Both Mr. Brown and I believe that the decision to terminate Associated Universities Inc.'s (AUI) contract may have profound and precedential implications for the DOE laboratory system and for DOE itself,"Sensenbrenner wrote.
On 1 May, the DOE terminated AUI's management contract at BNL. The contract was terminated, according to DOE, after receiving results of a lab safety review and "unacceptable disintegration of public trust in laboratory management." DOE has never before unilaterally terminated a contract "under such circumstances," according to DOE officials.
Specifically, the Congressmen asked GAO to address the following issues.
"The recent events surrounding environmental problems at the BNL have raised serious questions within the committee about the causes of these events and the roles of AUI, AUI's employees, and the various organizations and individuals within the DOE that have responsibility for the laboratory," Sensenbrenner complained.
Brown added, "The situation at Brookhaven affirms what most people have the good sense to intuitively know: that science can't be done at the expense of safety. Otherwise, that work has to stop—cold—until safety issues are addressed. While I congratulate the secretary (Secretary of Energy Federico Pena) on his strong actions, I hope GAO can help us understand why the Department of Energy and Brookhaven management tolerated environmental and safety problems at the lab for so long."
Earlier this year BNL announced that it had found tritium, a low-level radioactive form of hydrogen, in monitoring wells adjacent to the High Flux Beam Reactor (HFBR), a research reactor at the site. The HFBR had been shut down for maintenance and remains shut down today.
Suffolk County had put BNL on notice in 1994 that the HFBR spent fuel pool was not in compliance with its regulations. BNL agreed to install monitoring wells at that time, but they were not installed until 1996. The tritium situation was particularly alarming to the public because it was from active operations and had not been detected by the Laboratory for more than 10 years, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the BNL's environmental monitoring programs.
Sensenbrenner and Brown also asked GAO, "What additional changes are needed to prevent a recurrence of this kind of problem?
"We understand that GAO has performed a large body of work on DOE contracting laboratory management issues. We encourage the GAO team to use this body of knowledge to help the committee understand what happened at BNL, and how many lessons learned from the past could be useful throughout both the DOE laboratory network and the DOE."
| Top of Document |
Ants Leetmaa has been selected as the director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, MD.
Leetmaa will oversee the day-to-day operations of the climate center, the leading center for monitoring, analyzing and predicting climate events ranging from weeks to seasons. The Climate Prediction Center is part of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a component of the National Weather Service.
A native of Estonia, Leetmaa has been with NCEP since 1986, most recently as a senior scientist responsible for the development of the coupled ocean–atmosphere numerical model, the foundation of seasonal and interannual climate predictions. Before that, Leetmaa was a researcher at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic Meteorological Laboratories in Miami and a research associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, MA.
| Top of Document |
Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first and only woman ever to be elected president of AMS, in 1989, and Chief Scientist for Meteorology at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD, has gained new recognition. She has had NASA's fastest supercomputer, the CRAY T3E, named for her. Simpson was chosen for the honor for her pioneering work using computers in meteorological research.
During presentation ceremonies at Goddard on 14 May, Simpson said, "It is a great honor to have such a remarkable supercomputer named after me." The NASA meteorologist was a pioneer in cloud modeling, producing the first one-dimensional model and the first cumulus model on a computer. She also led research into multicloud modeling. Her credits include more than 170 publications in the areas of tropical meteorology, tropical cloud systems and modeling, tropical storms, and tropical rain measurement from space.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |