Editor: Jim Elliot
Contributors: Alan Weinstein, Ginny Frost, and Julie Burba
Copy Editor: Leah Whalen
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As expected, retired Air Force Brigadier General John J. Kelly has been named new director of NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS).
His appointment as the 13th person to head NWS was announced by Secretary of Commerce William M. Daley 19 February, to be effective 26 February.
Kelly is former head of the USAF Air Weather Service who last year conducted an in-depth study of NWS for NOAA and prescribed a number of recommendations for improvement of NWS operations.
In making the announcement, Daley said, "I have every confidence that General Kelly's experience and expertise will be of great benefit to the weather service, particularly as we near the end of its modernization program. I am fully committed to ensuring we have the best weather service in the world. I am confident that General Kelly—with the support of the 5000 dedicated National Weather Service employees—will provide just that."
In assuming the director's position, Kelly will be responsible for completing the modernization program, ensuring its cost-effective and efficient operation, and maintaining the quality of daily weather forecasts and warnings. He also will be responsible for maintaining strong working relationships with the academic community, the private sector, the Congress, and state and local governments.
Kelly's military career spanned 31 years and included 7 years as director of the Air Weather Service. He did graduate work in meteorology at Pennsylvania State University and received a master's degree in public administration from Auburn University. He is a fellow of the AMS.
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On his third day on the job, NWS Director John Kelly held an all-hands meeting with his staff and employees. In addition to revealing some of his goals and management style, he pledged his determination to have NWS continue to provide quality services and to employ science and technology combined with employee teamwork to improve both the image and the products of NWS with the American public.
Opening his hour-and-a-half session at the NOAA Silver Spring complex, he advised employees that he would be an available leader and have an open door to his office daily from 7:30 to 8:30 A.M. for them to bring complaints and suggestions. In outlining that openness, however, he warned that visitors should be prepared to offer solutions to whatever problems they had outlined. He also indicated that he expected employees—when they came to him—to present "facts, not opinion." Also, if they prepare papers, he expects them to be "concise and cogent." He also said that once a decision is made, he expects everyone to support that determination.
He suggested that NWS should more properly be known as "America's Weather Service" rather than the National Weather Service because of the fact that it provides so many services to so many areas of the nation's activity and economy.
In his broad-ranging talk, which included a question and answer period, Kelly outlined his philosophies of leadership and management, praised NWS employees for their performance, called for greater public recognition of the outstanding services NWS provides and emphasized the need for a greater focus on the future, calling for more creative thinking and suggesting people think of "where we want to be in 2025."
Kelly was named to his post in February (see related story above). A retired Air Force brigadier general who had served as director of the USAF's Air Weather Services, Kelly made a number of references to his experiences in that position. As a result, he said, he is aware he is from a "different culture." He also said he recognizes that some employees would have preferred the appointment of someone else as director.
Others, he said, look upon him as the "savior" of NWS. However, he emphasized, "I am not the savior of NWS. I'm not good enough for that." Pursuing a theme calling for cooperation and teamwork in his organization used throughout his talk, he said, "WE will be the savior of the weather service. It's not MY weather service, it's YOUR weather service."
He confided that he had been uncomfortable that people keep referring to his study of the NWS as the "Kelly Report" when a lot of people had worked on it and deserved recognition. His report followed an in-depth study of NWS directed by Secretary of Commerce Daley and NOAA Administrator James Baker last year.
His style of management, he said, is one of "shared responsibility," from the bottom up, so to speak. "I like decentralized management rather than centralized," he explained. "I like to place the responsibility in your hands and hold you accountable." He indicated that he will set high standards of performance, measure them, and reward those who meet those high qualities.
As a result of his study, he continued, he had learned a lot about NWS. However, he suggested that "most of you have forgotten more about NWS than I know." Through his study, he explained, he had learned that many persons in the Department of Commerce and in NOAA did not have the trust in NWS that he would like, "and I want to improve that." He also complained that the National Weather Service "is not in the news enough," saying he wants to do a better job of telling the American public what an "efficient and cost-effective" operation the organization provides and that NWS personnel are "good stewards of the tax dollar."
"I want to create a oneness" in the NWS, he explained. There's not an agreement that there's one weather service, he said, and some people think there are several weather services. He suggested that attitude has been generated by some areas of NWS pushing their own agendas rather than the goals of the entire weather service. "We've got to get everyone thinking about the mission," he emphasized.
Kelly said he hopes to establish a technology and development plan that would "bring all the pieces together." "We need to modernize our existing financial and management systems," he maintained, and "develop a coherent, kindly, comprehensive, and viable NWS technology plan," he said. "We've got to make what we're doing more understandable."
He said there is a need to improve the interaction between the organization and both the internal and external audiences. With the public, he continued, NWS needs to understand better what the people require and what they expect and then meet those needs.
He suggested that the organization must be prepared to meet unexpected challenges. No matter how well one plans, he said, "it's not going to unfold that way." One has to be flexible, he explained, citing the challenges and plan changes that occurred in the military during Desert Storm.
Looking ahead again, Kelly said, "We collectively have to focus on the future. We've got to nurture a positive and creative culture that allows people to think about what we'll do in the future."
"We control our destiny and the future of NWS," he said. "No one entity or organization is more or less important than the other."
During the question and answer period, he indicated he hopes to name one, and possibly two, acting deputies in the near future. He also said he hopes to cooperate with the private sector to meet the needs of the public and indicated he understands the need for close cooperation with the World Meteorological Organization.
Without criticizing current activities, he indicated the NWS public affairs personnel would be called upon to improve internal communications and that photographers will be getting additional assignments in taking photos of NWS personnel at work. "I'm big on pictures in the weather service doing things," he explained.
In general and from comments heard at the conclusion of the presentation, audience reaction was positive.
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The president's FY99 Research and Development (R&D) budget "builds on the momentum gained from Congressional successes last year," according to House Science Committee Chairman F. James Sensenbrenner Jr.; however, Science Committee members still have concerns about where the money will come from and about the future.
In the committee's analysis of the budget, released 28 February, Sensenbrenner (R-WI) said, "The administration's FY99 R&D budget builds on momentum gained from Congressional successes last year in support of a strong R&D program. Members of both parties on the Science Committee have worked diligently to ensure that federal science funding is sufficient to maintain U.S. leadership in science and technology for the next generation.
"While I'm glad the president's budget recognizes the importance of funding civilian R&D, particularly in FY99, I am concerned that increases for science rely on uncertain tax increases, an unsettled tobacco deal, and unspecified program reductions. In addition, we can't turn a blind eye toward future years where inflation will erode gains made in R&D in FY99."
In its analysis and review, the committee concluded the following.
A copy of the Science Committee's analysis and review can be obtained by accessing the committee's World Wide Web site at http://www.house.gov/science/welcome.htm or by calling the committee's press office at (202) 225-4275.
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While the House Science Committee received the president's FY99 budget proposal with reservations, the House Appropriations Committee was not quite so benevolent.
In a four-page statement, entitled "President's Failure to Produce Balanced Budget Leaves Congress with Headache," the committee listed a number of criticisms at the proposed presidential budget.
"While the president contends his budget for FY99 is balanced," the report noted, "the truth of the matter is that it falls at least $9 billion short on the discretionary side of spending because of its reliance on funding streams that simply don't exist, like the $3.5 billion tobacco settlement, phony user fees and legislative initiatives that will never materialize. Cuts in veterans medical care and elderly housing cannot be used to fund the litany of new programs the president proposes."
Committee Chairman Bob Livingston (R-LA) said, "The president's budget is like going out and spending all the money you hope to win in the lottery—it ignores reality. The real headache is left with Congress."
Some examples cited in the report included the following.
$17 million for the resurrection of previously terminated programs: Solar technology transfer ($1.4 million); climate challenge ($500,000), and university and science education ($15 million). $14 million for a new solar program support program, including $4 million for research and outreach and $10 million for a 5-year open solicitation for renewable energy technology. $157 million for the new Spellation Neutron Source, a research facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. $29 million for implementation of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty to ban all nuclear testing. The treaty has not been ratified by the Senate.
Livingston also listed several presidential proposals as "questionable funding increases," including the following.
$99 million increase (+36%) for solar and renewable resources technology, including a $7 million increase for the international solar energy program and an $11 million increase for wind energy systems. $400 million increase in Department of Energy's efficiency programs. $30 million increase for the U.S. contribution to the large hadron collider in Switzerland."
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The House Subcommittee on Technology of the House Science Committee held a hearing on the Administration's FY99 budget request on 26 February to review the NIST and Commerce Department's Technology Administration submissions. Testifying were Acting Undersecretary for Technology Gary Bachula, NIST Director Raymond Kammer, Commerce Acting Inspector General Johnnie Frazier, and GAO Associate Director Susan Kladiva, according to the American Institute of Physics Bulletin of Science Policy News.
With its main campus in Maryland, NIST has a strong supporter in Chairwoman Constance Morella (R-MD). Her main concerns, according to the AIP report, was the seeming reliance on tobacco settlement money for funding NIST and the other components of the administration's Research Fund for America.
Rep.Vern Ehlers (R-MI) expressed similar concerns about the tobacco money, saying there was "not a great deal of confidence" in Congress about the settlements, AIP reported.
Kammer replied that while the long-term financing situation is somewhat unclear, FY99 funding is not dependent on this money. That is not true for the following years, according to Kammer, who added that the administration would support NIST's budget projections despite the settlement outcome.
The proposed FY99 budget for NIST is $715 million, a 6.3% increase ($42 million) over the FY98 appropriation of $672.9 million.
NIST funding consists of three accounts: Scientific and Technical Research and Services (STRS), which incorporates NIST's in-house measurement and standards laboratories as well as the Malcolm Baldridge National Quality Board; Industrial Technology Services (ITS), composed of NIST's extramural programs with industry, the Advanced Technology Program (ATP), and the Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP); and construction and renovation of NIST facilities.
A breakdown of the budget request shows the following, in millions.
| Program | FY98 Appro. | FY99 Req. | % Change |
| NIST Total | $672.9 | $715.0 | + 6.3 |
| STRS Total | $271.9 | $291.6 | + 7.3 |
| Laboratories | $268.9 | $286.3 | + 6.5 |
| Baldridge Board | $ 3.0 | $ 5.4 | +80.0 |
| ITS Total | $306.0 | $366.7 | +19.8 |
| ATP | $192.5 | $259.9 | +35.0 |
| MEP | $113.5 | $106.8 | - 5.9 |
| Construction | $ 95.0 | $ 56.7 | - 40.3 |
At the hearing's conclusion, Congresswoman Morella told witnesses, "You're not in bad shape," according to AIP.
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While President Clinton's overall FY99 budget proposal for the Department of Energy showed a 9% increase, the environmental science gain was more modest. Biological and environmental research (BER) showed a decrease from the FY98 appropriation, while the proposals for the environmental processes and environmental remediation enjoyed increases over the previous year.
The overall administration BER budget request was for $392.6 million compared to $401.5 million in FY98, a decrease of $8.9 million. Within the BER program are life sciences, environmental processes, environmental remediation, medical applications and measurement science, and construction. The president requested increases in environmental processes and environmental remediation, but decreases in all other categories of the BER program.
In environmental processes, the president recommended an FY99 budget of $119.237 million, a $10.837 increase over the FY98 appropriation of $108.400 million. In environmental remediation, the administration proposed an FY99 budget of $67.435 million, a $1.138 million boost over the FY98 appropriation of $66.297 million.
The FY99 life sciences proposal of $162,017,000 was $3.177 million less than the FY98 appropriation of $165,194,000 and the medical applications and measurement science for FY99 of $43.911 million was down $22.065 million from the FY98 appropriation of $65.976 million. No construction funds were requested for FY99.
In life sciences, the budget breakdown by subprogram shows the following.
| Activity | FY98 | FY99 | Change |
| Structural biology | $28,105,000 | $28,145,000 | +$40,000 |
| Molecular and cellularBiology | $29,312,000 | $24,771,000 | -$4,541,000 |
| Human genome | $84,915,000 | $85,329,000 | +$414,000 |
| Health effects | $18,797,000 | $19,801,000 | +$1,004,000 |
| SBIR/STTR | $4,065,000 | $3,971,000 | -$94,000 |
| Total | $165,194,000 | $162,017,000 | -$3,177,000 |
The life sciences subprogram underpins DOE's Climate Change Technology Initiative (CCTI) in that it focuses on the production of genetic information on methane-producing and hydrogen-producing microorganisms that can be exploited in the development of useful and efficient nonfossil fuel sources.
The FY99 budget contains two carbon-related programs, each of which cuts across several agencies. The first is CCTI. The part of the CCTI that is within the Office of Energy Research is a joint activity between the BER and the Basic Energy Science (BES) programs. The second is the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) that spans 11 agencies and is coordinated through the National Science and Technology Council's Committee on Environment and Natural Resources. CCTI focuses on the underpinning science that will enable mitigation of climate change while maintaining a robust national economy.
Additional resources of $11,000,000 provided specifically for the CCTI will be a natural extension of the complementary, ongoing work in several programs of energy research and will build on relevant research already under way.
DOE's environmental research is closely coordinated with activities in its sister agencies, such as NASA, NSF, NOAA, USDA and EPA, within the USGCRP, particularly in the area of large-scale modeling of carbon dioxide impacts on climate, ecology, and ocean sciences. It also plays a leadership role within USGCRP on consequence evaluation of increased greenhouse gases in global climate change.
The goal of the BER program is to develop information, scientific know-how, and technology for identification, characterization, prediction, and mitigation of adverse health and environmental consequences of energy production, development, and use, the objectives of which include to contribute to a healthy citizenry, a cleanup of the environment and to understand global environmental change.
A breakdown of subprogram funding in the environmental processes area shows the following.
| Activity | FY98 | FY99 | Change |
| Climate and hydrology | $61,748,000 | $64,136,000 | +$2,388,000 |
| Atmos. chemistry and carbon cycle | $22,568,000 | $30,879,000 | +$8,311,000 |
| Ecological processes | $12,321,000 | $12,011,000 | -$310,000 |
| Human interactions | $8,984,000 | $9,158,000 | +$174,000 |
| SBIR/STTR | $2,779,000 | $3,053,000 | +$274,000 |
| Total | $108,400,000 | $119,237,000 | +$10,837,000 |
Under the atmospheric chemistry and carbon cycle subprogram, DOE plans to provide data necessary to understand pollutant transport and tropospheric ozone. It plans to complete its air quality study of Mexico City and initiate meteorological studies affecting pollutant transport. Its Atmospheric Science program will focus on research needs identified through the North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO), including both ozone and small airborne particulates and on aerosols.
It also plans to continue measurements of carbon dioxide fluxes between the atmosphere and major terrestrial ecosystems and utilize flux data to test and improve terrestrial carbon process models.
The environmental remediation research is focused primarily on gaining a better understanding of the fundamental biological, chemical, geological, and physical processes that must be marshaled for the development and advancement of new, effective, and efficient processes for the remediation and restoration of the nation's nuclear weapons production lines. The funding schedule in this area shows the following.
| Activity | FY98 | FY99 | Change |
| Bioremediation research | $27,969,000 | $28,039,000 | +$70,000 |
| Clean-up research | $7,726,000 | $7,746,000 | +$20,000 |
| Facility operations | $29,053,000 | $30,072,000 | +$1,019,000 |
| SBIR/STTR | $1,549,000 | $1,578,000 | +$29,000 |
| Total | $66,297,000 | $67,435,000 | +$1,138,000 |
The funding schedule in the medical applications and measurement science area shows the following.
| Activity | FY98 | FY99 | Change |
| Medical applications | $58,421,000 | $36,925,000 | -$21,496,000 |
| Measurement science | $5,797,000 | $5,849,000 | +$52,000 |
| SBIR/STTR | $1,758,000 | $1,137,000 | -$621,000 |
| Total | $65,976,000 | $43,911,000 | -$22,065,000 |
In the medical applications area, DOE plans to complete human clinical trials of boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT) at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Ohio State University, and follow up successful trials with additional clinical trials at higher drug and radiation dosages. It also plans to develop new approaches to radiopharmaceutical design and synthesis using genome sequencing information, combinatorial chemistry, and computational modeling concepts and to develop multimodal imaging systems for studies of human brain function in normal and diseased states looking for new applications of imaging and laser technology for medical practice.
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The Clinton administration, in its first official assessment of the international global warning treaty the United States signed in Kyoto, Japan, forecasts that the agreement would—at most—result in modest price hikes for gasoline and other fuels and that those increases could be offset by lower electric bills.
The increases resulting from the agreement last December might add $70 to $110 to the average American household's annual energy bill over a 15-year period, according to the long-awaited economic analysis.
Some economists were skeptical about the report, pointing out that the forecast is based on several optimistic assumptions.
The 10-day Kyoto summit resulted in 159 nations agreeing to the pact that is the first legally binding international protocol to fight global warming. The treaty calls for reducing "greenhouse gases" produced mostly by burning fossil fuels by an average of 5% below what they were in 1990.
Janet Yellen, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, told the House Science Committee that based on a months-long study using internationally respected economic forecasting models, a net increase of $7–$12 billion was projected for the net increase in natural energy costs by 2012. That's the deadline set in Kyoto for industrialized nations to achieve cuts in emissions.
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from Alan Weinstein, Office of Naval Research
Principals of the State Department and the European Union (EU) have reached an agreement for scientific and technical cooperation between the European Community and the government of the United States.
The agreement, signed 5 December, provides for cooperative activities in such areas as environment (including climate research), fisheries science, marine sciences, and technology, plus many others.
Cooperative activities may take the form of coordinated and/or joint research projects; joint task forces; joint studies; joint organizations of scientific seminars, conferences, symposia, and workshops; training of scientists and technical experts; exchanges or sharing of equipment or other appropriate personnel; and exchanges of scientific and technological information.
The agreement will not come into full force until about July after official ratification by all concerned parties. The agreement is expected to ease the ability of U.S. scientists and engineers to participate as working partners in EU scientific framework programs (as long as partners bring their own funds).
The two programs of primary interest to readers of this newsletter are Environment and Climate (http://europa.eu.int/comm/dg12/envirl.html) and Marine Science and Technology (http://europa.eu.int/comm/dg12/marinel.html).
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In its latest El Niño advisory, NOAA's National Climate Prediction Center forecast the possibility of "recurring periods of significant storm activity and precipitation across California and the southern tier of the United States" through March and possibly into April.
The Center noted that "strong ENSO conditions contributed to pronounced departures from normal in the position and intensity of the jet stream over the North Pacific and North America during February. The Pacific jet stream during February remained strong across the entire North Pacific from south of Japan to the California coast.
"The main core of the jet stream then continued eastward over northern Mexico and over the Gulf of Mexico, where a series of intense low pressure systems developed. Precipitation was especially heavy over California, along the immediate Gulf Coast, over Florida, and throughout the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. Precipitation surpluses in sections of California and the Gulf Coast states have ranged from 300 to 600 mm (12–14 inches) since the beginning of December."
The advisory reported that warm episode (ENSO) conditions would continue through May.
"We also expect the . . . circulation features to continue over North America through March, and possibly into April," the advisory noted.
Continuing, it reported, "Globally, we expect drier-than-normal conditions over Indonesia, northern Australia, northern South America and southern Africa and wetter-than-normal conditions over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru, and over southeastern South America. A return to wetter-than-normal conditions is also likely over central Chile during April through July as the jet stream over the eastern South Pacific continues to be stronger than normal."
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Additional funding to continue research flights into the heart of El Niño–driven storms along the California coast was announced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, part of the Commerce Department.
"The flights have provided weather forecasters with significant additional data to assist them in making more specific forecasts," said Elbert W. (Joe) Friday Jr., director of research for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "The additional funding will help sustain our CALJET mission through the month of March, which should help us better forecast storms that month."
Since mid-January, researchers representing two interagency field projects have been collecting data that has helped improve weather forecasts along the California coast and provided more detailed observations for weather models over North America.
Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Navy, and universities participating in the CALJET (California Land-Falling Jets) experiment, using a NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft, have flown into more than a dozen storms that have pounded communities throughout California in the past six weeks, collecting data that have been put into real-time forecasts by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters.
At the same time, another group of scientists from NOAA, the U.S. Navy, and the U.S. Air Force, based in Honolulu, Hawaii, and Anchorage, Alaska, collected data in real time that were added to weather models, providing better 1- to 4-day warnings for recent storms. These research meteorologists were analyzing the formation of the storms out in the Pacific as part of the NORPEX (North Pacific Experiment) project. Together, the two programs have amassed the best dataset collected in over a hundred years, according to Friday.
"This has been a very successful effort on the part of these scientists and illustrates the important connection between research and daily operations carried out at NOAA's National Weather Service," said Friday.
"This combination of experiments was designed to see if the addition of measurements over the Pacific Ocean, the birth place of these storms, would improve the forecasts for storms before they hit the West Coast and then move eastward. We also wanted to look at ways to enhance local forecasts of heavy rainfall along the mountainous west coast of the United States," said William Neff, chief of the division overseeing coastal weather research at NOAA's Environmental Technology Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. "I think we've achieved that goal and more."
The NORPEX team has been flying the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet augmented by two USAF C-130 aircraft from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Group, Keesler AFB. The flights over the North Pacific provide real-time observations for NWS and navy numerical models used in weather forecasts. "Our goal was to help improve the skill and reliability of weather forecasts in the 1- to 4-day timescale by providing additional data gathered from our flights over the Pacific," said Melvyn Shapiro, project coordinator for NORPEX.
The flights along the West Coast were carried out by a NOAA P-3 aircraft, normally used for hurricane research, which along with the G-IV jet is supported and flown by staff from the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in Tampa, Florida.
The CALJET flights were directed into both moderate and strong storms up to one day before they struck the coast. At the same time, trucks with portable Doppler radars traveled up and down the coast taking measurements, while wind profilers, drifting buoys, and a host of other instrumentation clicked away, routinely recording data.
"The information gathered was used in real-time weather forecasting and in weather prediction models," said Marty Ralph, principal investigator for CALJET.
This information enabled forecasters in some instances to issue much more specific flood warnings 6 hours before flooding occurred. The data gathered was also fed into navy and National Centers for Environmental Prediction weather models in real time. These data directly aided mesoscale numerical model forecasts by the Naval Postgraduate School, which were run to support CALJET operations and NWS forecasters.
However, the greatest value, said Ralph, may emerge after the data are analyzed back at the lab. "I hope we gain a better understanding of the atmosphere from these projects and forecasters will be able to issue even more timely watches and warnings for the people of California, resulting in better preparedness for weather-related events and the saving of lives and property,"said Norm Hoffman, meteorologist-in-charge at the NWS Forecast Office in Monterey.
The datasets gathered by these two projects have led to dramatic improvements in storm forecasting over the past five weeks. The projects worked together, with NORPEX gathering data 1–4 days out over the Pacific and CALJET gathering data near the coast in the 0–24-hour range. The exceptional research flight data have provided timely information and enhanced the NWS forecasts and flood/wind warnings.
The extreme rains that have fallen in California during the experiments, including more rain in five weeks than normally falls all year, is providing a wealth of data for researchers. This information will help scientists determine the impacts of El Niño on the heavy rains in California and on exactly how the extra experimental data collected by researchers affected storm forecasts.
According to climate researchers at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, El Niño will continue to impact weather along the West Coast and southeastern United States for the next two months.
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Scientists from some 14 institutions are braving the elements on the icy Great Lakes in an intensive field program under way this winter. Researchers on this Lake-Induced Convection Experiment, or Lake-ICE, are trying to better understand midwest meteorology and lake-effect winter storms. Lake-ICE is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF).
"The Great Lakes appear to have a significant impact on the weather over much of the eastern United States and Canada," explains Steve Nelson, director of NSF's mesoscale dynamic meteorology program. Cities on the southern and eastern sides of the Great Lakes, such as Cleveland and Buffalo, owe much of their snow accumulation each winter to lake-effect storms.
"Anyone who's around the Great Lakes knows about lake-effect snowstorms and how disruptive they can be. Results from LakeICE will likely translate into better forecasts of timing, location, and intensity of lake-effect snow," says Nelson.
Using aircraft and other research equipment, scientists from the University of Michigan, the University of Wisconsin, the University of Illinois, and other universities will determine how the Great Lakes affect arctic air masses in winter and how heat and moisture from the lakes circulate on several scales. For these researchers, bad weather is great news—then they can get out in the field and study their subject.
Working through sleet, snow, and icy fog, Lake-ICE researchers hope to gain a better understanding of the Great Lakes' influence on weather both nearby and far away and, more generally, of how the atmosphere reacts to exchanges of heat and moisture with large bodies of water. Project scientists are gathering information on different kinds of lake-effect storms, called "storm flavors."
One flavor of storm, for example, lines up in a single band of clouds and dumps snow in one area, like the Indiana towns located along the bend in Lake Michigan. Another storm flavor forms into parallel rows of clouds, showering some cities with snow and sleet but leaving others untouched. By better understanding the processes that lead to various storm flavors, forecasting will improve not only in the Midwest, but in the east as well. "What happens in the Great Lakes appears to impact storm development as far away as the eastern seaboard," says Nelson.
Although results won't be known immediately, if all goes well, Lake-ICE may soon be making a difference by better predicting next winter's storms for those who live in the Great Lakes snowbelt, and along the entire East Coast.
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The first two months of 1998 were the warmest and wettest in the 104-year record of temperatures and precipitation measurements for the contiguous 48 states, according to a report released by NOAA this month. Average national temperature during the period was 37.5° Fahrenheit compared with a normal 32.1°, according to the report. The previous record was 37.0° in 1990, the report noted.
For precipitation, 6.01 in. fell, compared with a normal 4.05 in. The previous record was 5.7 in. in 1979, the report indicated.
For the period December–February, temperatures and precipitation were not extreme, the report noted, with this past winter having been the second warmest on record and the seventh wettest. The normal national average temperature for the winter months of December, January, and February is 32.3°F. This year's figure was 36.4° degrees. The record is 36.6°, set in 1991–92, NOAA officials reported.
For that 3-month period, normal precipitation value for the nation is 6.35 in. This year's figure is 7.96 in., compared with 8.5 in. in 1932.
Officials noted that California and North Dakota had their wettest February on record. Florida, Maryland, Nevada, Rhode Island, and Virginia had their second wettest February since 1895. The warmest February on record took place in much of the upper Midwest and parts of the east, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut, officials reported.
"These are patterns one would typically expect during a strong El Niño event," according to Ants Leetmaa, director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland.
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Departing Punta Arenas, Chile, in mid-February, 26 scientists representing 10 countries sailed aboard the ocean drilling ship JOIDES Resolution to collect core samples from the continental rise and shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula.
The international ocean drilling program, supported in large part by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), is conducting a two-month expedition near the edge of the Antarctic continent, the first of a series to probe the historical development of the Antarctic ice sheet and its consequences for earth's climate.
"Scientific drilling in the deep ocean is a window on the past," explains Bruce Malfait, NSF ocean drilling program director. "Using composition, texture, fossil content, and other sediment information, scientists can travel back in time." In some places around Antarctica, for example, it may have taken 1000 years to deposit 10 cm of sediment. So drilling 1 km of those sediments then would take researchers back 10 million years. A teaspoonful of mud 1 cm thick would go back 100 years.
The Antarctic ice sheet is the world's largest, but scientists have many questions about how it grew, when, and why. Researchers aboard the JOIDES Resolution hope this expedition will help to answer those questions.
"We all know about the ice sheets of the Northern Hemisphere, including the very large masses of ice that covered North America and northern Europe and Asia in recent times," says Peter Barker of the British Antarctic Survey, co-chief scientist of the expedition. "But in geological terms, these ice sheets are very young at only 3 million years old, as compared to the ice surrounding Antarctica. Even the Greenland ice sheet is a comparative newcomer at 7 million years old. Ice likely existed on Antarctica 35 million years ago."
Northern Hemisphere ice sheets are very sensitive to climate change. Scientists aboard the JOIDES Resolution will attempt to discover whether that sensitivity holds true for Antarctic ice and to what extent. Till deposits on the Antarctic margin contain a record of past behavior of the ice sheet. Sampling and dating the till should provide information on when and why the ice sheet developed and its effects on sea level and ocean chemistry through time.
"Mankind is on the edge of having the power to change global climate," says Barker. "If we are to make wise decisions on this, we must understand how climate works—what drives it, how quickly the various parts of the system respond, and what the full effect would be of what we might do, or have done. Because of its pivotal importance to world climate, we must try to understand the history of the Antarctic ice sheet."
The expedition will conclude 11 April with a port call in Cape Town, South Africa. The expedition targets the Antarctic Peninsula because its sediments are relatively well mapped and easy to interpret. Drilling in future seasons will examine other sectors of the Antarctic margin, if this expedition is successful.
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NOAA's National Climatic Prediction Center has placed a report on-line regarding the February flooding in California and tornadoes in Florida.
The report includes a narrative, precipitation data, satellite images, radar images, a section on historical perspective, and links to other sources of information and data.
The World Wide Web address is http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov.
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The Student Nitric Oxide Explorer (SNOE) spacecraft, designed to measure the effects of the sun's X-ray radiation and magnetic field in the earth's upper atmosphere, was launched successfully aboard an Orbital Sciences Pegasus rocket on 25 February.
The Pegasus was dropped from an L-1011 aircraft 100 miles west of Monterey, California, over the Pacific Ocean at 11:05 P.M. PST.
"The launch was perfect," according to NASA Launch Manager Ray Lugo.
First data from the spacecraft was received at 12:30 A.M. PST by the Poker Flats, Alaska, tracking station and relayed to the NASA telemetry facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California.
"After the first orbit, the data from the spacecraft was exactly what we were hoping to see," said Dr. Charles Barth, SNOE Principal Investigator from the University of Colorado at Boulder.
SNOE is an earth-orbiting satellite designed and built by a team of Boulder students, faculty, and engineers who were selected to develop the mission by the Universities Space Research Association with funding from NASA. The spacecraft carries an ultraviolet spectrometer and two photometers to measure the effects of the sun's X-ray radiation and magnetic field on nitric oxide production. This is believed to affect the variability in the earth's upper atmosphere.
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Planet Earth will capture the attention of scientists at the 36th Goddard Memorial Symposium where they will take a close-up look at the expanding role of earth-observing satellites.
The symposium, sponsored by the American Astronautical Society, will be held at the Greenbelt Marriott Hotel 18–19 March in Greenbelt, Maryland. The theme of the meeting is "Earth Systems Science, Remote Sensing and Applications."
Talks on current knowledge of atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial processes and the vital role played by space-based remote sensing will be presented in topics to include evolution of the 1997–98 El Niño, stratospheric ozone changes, natural hazards, use of satellite imagery for highway traffic monitoring, ocean surface topography, global vegetation and sea ice variability.
Attendees may register by calling the AAS in Springfield, Virginia, at (703) 866-0020.
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There is a high probability that water ice exists at both the north and south poles of the moon, according to initial scientific data returned by NASA's Lunar Prospector.
The Discovery Program mission also has produced the first operational gravity map of the entire lunar surface, which should serve as a fundamental reference for all future lunar exploration missions, project scientists announced at NASA's Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California.
Just two months after the launch of the cylindrical spacecraft, mission scientists have solid evidence of the existence of lunar water ice, including estimates of its volume, location, and distribution. "We are elated at the performance of the spacecraft and its scientific payload, as well as the resulting quality and magnitude of information about the moon that we already have been able to extract," said Dr. Alan Binder, Lunar Prospector Principal Investigator from the Lunar Research Institute, Gilroy, California.
The presence of water ice at both lunar poles is strongly indicated by data from the spacecraft's neutron spectrometer instrument, according to mission scientists. Graphs of data ratios from the neutron spectrometer "reveal distinctive 3.4% and 2.2% dips in the relevant curves over the northern and southern polar regions, respectively," Binder said. "This is the kind of data 'signature' one would expect to find if water ice is present."
Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), chairman of the House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics, received the news that NASA's Lunar Prospector had confirmed the presence of extensive water ice on the moon with the comment, "This changes everything."
"Lunar Prospector Principal Investigator Dr. Alan Binder and his team are modern-day explorers who have found and taken the first steps to quantify a vital resource that could support the economic and scientific development of the earth's moon as a second home for mankind," he said.
However, the moon's water ice is not concentrated in polar ice sheets, mission scientists cautioned. "While the evidence of water ice is quite strong, the water 'signal' itself is relatively weak," said Dr. William Feldman, co-investigator and spectrometer specialist at the Department of Energy's Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico. "Our data are consistent with the presence of water ice in very low concentrations across a significant number of craters." Using models based on other Lunar Prospector data, Binder and Feldman predict that water ice is confined to the polar regions and exists at only a 0.3%–1% mixing ratio in combination with the moon's rocky soil, or regolith.
How much lunar water ice has been detected? Assuming a water ice depth of about 1.5 ft (0.5 m)—the depth to which the neutron spectrometer's signal can penetrate—Binder and Feldman estimate that the data are equivalent to an overall range of 11–330 million tons (10–300 million metric tons) of lunar water ice, depending upon the assumptions of the model used. This quantity is dispersed over 3600 to 18 000 square miles (10 000–50 000 square kilometers) of water ice-bearing deposits across the northern pole, and an additional 1800–7200 square miles (5000–20 000 square kilometers) across the southern polar region. Furthermore, twice as much of the water ice mixture was detected by Lunar Prospector at the moon's north pole as at the south.
Dr. Jim Arnold of the University of California at San Diego previously has estimated that the most water ice that could conceivably be present on the moon as a result of meteoritic and cometary impacts and other processes is 11–110 billion tons. The amount of lunar regolith that could have been "gardened" by all impacts in the past 2 billion years extends to a depth of about 6.5 ft (2 m), he found. On that basis, Lunar Prospector's estimate of water ice would have to be increased by a factor of up to 4, to the range of 44 million–1.3 billion tons (40 million–1.2 billion metric tons). In actuality, Binder and Feldman caution that, due to the inadequacy of existing lunar models, their current estimates "could be off by a factor of 10 in either direction."
The earlier joint Defense Department–NASA Clementine mission to the moon used a radar-based technique that detected ice deposits in permanently shadowed regions of the lunar south pole. It is not possible to directly compare the results from Lunar Prospector to Clementine because of their fundamentally different sensors, measurement "footprints," and analysis techniques. However, members of the Clementine science team concluded that its radar signal detected from 110 million to 1.1 billion tons (100 million–1 billion metric tons) of water ice, over an upper area limit of 5500 square miles (15 500 square kilometers) of south pole terrain.
There are various ways to estimate the economic potential of the detected lunar water ice as a supporting resource for future human exploration of the moon. One way is to estimate the cost of transporting that same volume of water ice from Earth to orbit. Currently, it costs about $10 000 to put one pound of material into orbit. NASA is conducting technology research with the goal of reducing that figure by a factor of 10, to only $1000 per pound. Using an estimate of 33 million tons from the lower range detected by Lunar Prospector, it would cost $60 trillion to transport this volume of water to space at that rate, with unknown additional cost of transport to the moon's surface.
From another perspective, a typical person consumes an estimated 100 gallons of water per day for drinking, food preparation, bathing, and washing. At that rate, the same estimate of 33 million tons of water (7.2 billion gallons) could support a community of 1000 two-person households for well over a century on the lunar surface, without recycling.
"This finding by Lunar Prospector is primarily of scientific interest at this time, with implications for the rate and importance of cometary impacts in the history and evolution of the solar system," said Dr. Wesley Huntress, NASA Associate Administrator for Space Science. "A cost-effective method to mine the water crystals from within this large volume of soil would have to be developed if it were to become a real resource for drinking water or as the basic components of rocket fuel to support any future human explorers."
Additional information about the Lunar Prospector mission can be found on the World Wide Web at http://lunar.arc.nasa.gov.
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Concern over cost overruns and the shifting of funds from other accounts underscored a House Science Committee hearing on the space station on 25 February.
In the past two years, NASA has transferred almost a half-billion dollars to station development from accounts for life and microgravity science to be performed on the space station, as well as shifting funds from other areas, according to a report by the American Institute of Physics.
Now, the administration is asking to transfer $173 million to the station from other NASA programs through a supplemental FY98 appropriation.
The new associate administrator for human space flight, Joe Rothenberg, testified he was just beginning to look at how to guide the space station program from development of infrastructure to a "user-driven enabler" of science and exploration.
While praising the "faster, better, cheaper" philosophy promoted by NASA Administrator Dan Goldin, space station opponent Rep. Tim Roemer (D-IN) called the station a "slower, bloated, not-even-mediocre" program that was eating into other NASA programs.
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Despite a ban on the production of ozone-depleting halons by developed countries, the compounds continue to increase in the atmosphere, according to a new study by the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Measurements by scientists at NOAA's Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, indicate that three bromine-containing fire extinguishants, halons H-1211, H-1301, and H-2402, are still being released into the atmosphere in crucial amounts.
The findings are reported in the 20 January issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research and are the result of a 10-year analysis of air samples from eight remote climate monitoring stations, which were sampled on a biweekly and /or monthly basis, and seven research cruises in the remote ocean. A companion paper, by Wamsley et al., reporting similar results of measurements from high-altitude aircraft that calculated total bromine in the lower stratosphere, also appears in the same issue.
Scientists are concerned about the increase in halons because bromine, an element in the halons, is 50 times more efficient at depleting ozone in the atmosphere than its nearest rival, chlorine, a component in chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and because the gases last a long time in the atmosphere. "Given the current atmospheric record and the reported amount of halon produced before the ban on production, emission of one of these compounds could continue for another 40 years," scientist and lead author James Butler said.
"These increases are significant and of concern because of the efficiency of bromine in depleting stratospheric ozone and because of the long atmospheric lifetimes of these gases," said Butler. According to Butler, there are as yet no suitable substitutes for all halon uses, some of which are critical. The main sources of the compounds are from stockpiles of halons produced before the ban on production and from developing nations, such as China. In fact, China alone generated almost 90% of the global production of halon in 1994. Continued increases in production in developing countries are allowed within the Montreal Protocol until the year 2002, at which time they will have to freeze production at the 1995–97 levels. The Montreal Protocol is an international agreement to limit ozone-damaging compounds that was originally signed by the United States and 22 other nations in 1987 and subsequently revised and amended.
Another concern is the reported decline in total equivalent chlorine in CFCs that was reported by the same NOAA scientists in the journal Science several years ago. That report was regarded as a sign that the recovery of the ozone layer would soon begin and an indication that the Montreal Protocol was working. However, according to Steve Montzka, lead author of that manuscript and a coauthor on the current one, "The halons are partially offsetting the decline we reported a few years ago. By the year 2005, if halons continue to increase in the atmosphere, the total amount of equivalent chlorine (chlorine + bromine) will no longer be decreasing as we observed a few years ago." This could cause the recovery of the ozone hole to slow down because even though the amount of bromine present in the atmosphere is smaller than chlorine, it is much more destructive of ozone. Will halons continue to go up? Possibly. "We believe there's still a lot of halon out there waiting to be used. And there are no substitutes at present," says Montzka.
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El Niño–related drought and high ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean off Australia have resulted in coral reef bleaching around the Great Barrier Reef, raising concern among experts about the future of these fragile ecosystems known as the "rainforests of the sea," the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced.
Corals normally recover from bleaching, unless high ocean temperatures persist for too long a period or become even warmer. Coral reefs support a variety of marine life and provide resources of significant economic importance such as fishing and recreation. Coral bleaching, induced by high water temperatures, has raised concerns about these fragile ecosystems. Coral bleaching occurs as coral tissue expels zooxanthellae, a type of algae that resides in the structure of the coral and is essential to the coral's survival.
The bleaching was observed on many inshore reefs of central Great Barrier Reef, particularly reefs off Townsville, after temperatures in the water reached 29°–30° Celsius (84°–86° Fahrenheit). Corals there usually thrive in temperatures no higher than 28°C (82°F). These "hot spots," with temperatures well above last year's levels, have been identified by NOAA satellite data and confirmed by data provided by the Australian Institute of Marine Science.
"Sea surface temperatures have warmed considerably off the eastern coast of Australia during the past few weeks," said NOAA oceanographer Al Strong. "Our research indicates bleaching most likely began in the southernmost region of the Great Barrier Reef and appears to be moving toward the north. From our latest observations, these bleaching conditions appear to have reached New Caledonia (at 21°S latitude, 165° E longitude). Sea surface temperatures from the 1982–83 and 1987 El Niño events were not quite this warm."
NOAA also reports continued warm waters from El Niño and coral reef bleaching off the Galapagos Islands off the coast of Ecuador. Sea surface temperatures there are about 30°C (86°F). This is nearly 2° warmer than the waters that promoted initial bleaching there in mid-December.
Corals at the Galapagos thrive as long as temperatures remain at or below 27°C—the normal maximum sea surface temperature at this site. An increase of 1° or 2° above the usual maximum temperatures can be deadly to these animals. The temperature range for corals to thrive varies from site to site by only a few degrees.
During the 1997–98 El Niño, NOAA has confirmed coral bleaching in the Western Hemisphere at sites in the Florida Keys, Baja California, the Pacific coast of Panama, the Yucatan coast, Caymans, and the Netherland Antilles. In the Eastern Hemisphere, reefs in the Red Sea and the Seychelles have experienced some bleaching during the past year.
"During this Year of the Ocean, it is important that we learn all we can about these extremely important ecosystems," Strong said. "Our interactive Internet site is proving to be a remarkable asset to both the researcher and the reef manager."
Video animations of coral reef hot spots and sea surface temperatures are available on the World Wide Web at http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/orad. Click onto "Experimental Products." From there, click onto "Coral Bleaching Hotspots." For a still image of the area of coral bleaching off Australia, go to http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/orad and click on "What's New."
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As part of the Clinton administration's Clean Water Action Plan, the Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is initiating a multiagency Clean Water Initiative to reduce polluted runoff, a major source of coastal water pollution and a key link in outbreaks of harmful algal blooms such as Pfiesteria.
NOAA will work with the Environmental Protection Agency to help 29 coastal states and territories complete development of management plans by 31 December 1999 to reduce polluted runoff (also called nonpoint pollution).
"This is the first time agencies throughout the federal government have joined in this spirit of cooperation to help protect our vital coastal resources from runoff pollution," said D. James Baker, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere.
NOAA has requested $22 million in FY99 to support the administration's Clean Water Initiative. Baker said that the coastal nonpoint pollution reduction plans will help protect coastal communities from harmful substances and reduce the flow of pollution into coastal waters from nonpoint sources such as agricultural fields, city streets, and other areas.
"In this, the International Year of the Ocean, it is crucial to educate the public about how every action, from changing a car's oil to using pesticides and fertilizers, can affect the health of the coasts and of the ocean," Baker said.
Baker said the coastal nonpoint plans would help empower the states to manage their own marine and Great Lakes resources by including voluntary and incentive-based programs and state-enforceable policies and mechanisms, coupled with increased federal technical and financial support.
The state coastal nonpoint plans include measures to
The Clean Water Action Plan, which marks the 25th anniversary of the Clean Water Act (October 1977), unites the efforts of nine federal agencies.
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Students may be able to dive into their schoolwork in a whole new way with an educators' guide NOAA is providing to teachers.
More than 55 000 teachers around the country have received a Year of the Ocean Educators Guide that gives seventh- and eighth-grade science teachers new ideas for teaching about the ocean. The United Nations has declared 1998 the International Year of the Ocean to educate the public about the important role the ocean plays in our daily lives.
The educators guides are designed so that teachers can fit the class activities and projects into existing curricula.
Students can learn
The goal is to get students to know and love the ocean so that they grow into adults who want to protect the ocean.
Visit the World Wide Web site at http://www.yoto98.noaa.gov.
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Alphonso (Al) Diaz, director of Goddard Space Flight Center, announced thatWilliam (Bill) Townsend, the deputy associate administrator (Programs) for the Office of Earth Science at NASA headquarters, is coming on board as deputy director of GSFC effective 23 March 1998. He succeeds Al Diaz, who was appointed director in January 1998.
Diaz commented, "I feel very fortunate that Bill agreed to take the position at GSFC. I look forward to working with him and to continuing the kind of relationship Joe Rothenberg and I enjoyed when I was the deputy.
"Over 30 years ago, Bill started his career at Wallops Flight Facility as a co-op student. We already have a common bond! Following several very successful missions, Seasat most notably, he came to NASA HQ to lead the development of the TOPEX/Poseidon mission. During his years at HQ, Bill honed further his talents in managing people and programs. His peers, as well as Mr. Goldin and Dr. Asrar, think he is top notch and see his stewardship of the earth science enterprise as bolstering and strengthening our center's mission. I can't agree more."
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Dr. Wesley T. Huntress Jr., NASA's associate administrator for Space Science, has announced his departure from the agency in the near future.
Huntress is responsible for NASA's programs in astrophysics, planetary exploration, and space physics. "I have served in this position for more than five years now," Huntress said, "and it is simply time to move on."
"Wes Huntress has presided over a revitalization of NASA's Space Science enterprise," NASA Administrator Daniel S. Goldin said. "Five years ago, the Hubble Space Telescope had problems, spacecraft costs were growing out of control, and serious budgetary threats were clouding NASA's future in space science. But during his tenure, thanks in no small part to the magnificent team he assembled at the field centers and NASA Headquarters, the Space Science enterprise has become one of NASA's crown jewels.
"The Hubble Telescope has become the workhorse of cutting-edge astronomy, and planetary exploration is now the province of faster, better, cheaper missions such as Mars Pathfinder. Through these efforts, even with constrained budgetary possibilities in the years ahead, NASA will continue to be a world leader in exploring the worlds beyond Earth. Much of this achievement is due to the wisdom and skill of Wes Huntress. We shall miss him."
Huntress was named to head the Office of Space Science in March 1993. He began his career at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, California, as a National Research Council resident associate in the 1960s. He joined JPL permanently in 1969 as a research scientist specializing in ion chemistry and planetary atmospheres. Huntress and his research group gained international recognition for their pioneering studies of chemical evolution in interstellar clouds, comets, and planetary atmospheres.
NASA will begin a search for Huntress's replacement immediately.
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Former astronaut Mary L. Cleave, who served as project manager for the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWIFS) mission at Goddard Space Flight Center, has been awarded the NASA Engineer of the Year Award for 1998.
Dr. Cleave was selected for her outstanding technical and engineering expertise in managing and coordinating the SeaWIFS project. SeaWIFS is an ocean color sensor that monitors global chlorophyll concentration. Launched 1 August 1997, the instrument is providing global biospheric maps every 48 hours—the first regular global measurement of plant life.
She was selected for the astronaut corps in 1980 and flew as a mission specialist on two Space Shuttle missions—61-B, a 6-day mission that ran from 26 November to 3 December on space shuttle Atlantis and STS-30 in May 1989. She resigned from the astronaut corps in May 1991 to join the staff at Goddard.
Dr. Cleave has her doctorate in civil and environmental engineering.
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