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While the Fiscal Year 1997 budget has been passed, allocations within the agencies continue.
To date (10 December), few agencies have completed the allocations or are ready to announce their decisions. However, sources indicate that the National Weather Service (NWS) is one department that is going to suffer when the final allocations are made.
The House–Senate conferees funded NWS at $638 million, $32 million below the FY96 enacted amount and $11 million below the FY97 request. The conferees provided $100 million for the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing Systems (AWIPS) program to continue critical software development activities and begin nationwide deployment of the AWIPS system. AWIPS will integrate satellite and radar data and provide forecasters a capability that will improve forecasts and warnings significantly.
In addition to support for the remapping of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data, AWIPS will provide the communications capability needed to allow internal and external users access to much of NOAA's real-time environmental data.
As a result of the funding level, NWS is expected to be forced to delay deployment of 20 AWIPS systems in FY97 and further delay final implementation of AWIPS by several months. The deployment delay followed the conferees decision to delay the production decisions until additional operational testing has been completed.
The National Environmental Satellite and Information Services (NESDIS) is another department awaiting final allocations. Conferees funded NESDIS at $448 million, $24 million below the FY96 budget and $84 million below the FY97 request. The total includes $29 million for the interagency program office to converge the NOAA and the Department of Defense (DOD) polar satellites. That funding level meets the revised estimate of need for this fiscal year, sources indicated, and was agreed upon jointly by NOAA and DOD. The conferees also provided $51 million for Environmental Observing Service, $2 million more than enacted in FY96 but $3 million less than the FY97 request.
The GOES program received $171.4 million compared with the administration request of $205.9 million and the FY96 enacted amount of $153.1 million.
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contributed by Audrey T. Leath, American Institute of Physics
The chairman of the House Science Committee has the potential to influence national science policy, yet that potential is rarely fully utilized. Leaders in the last Congress even contemplated the committee's elimination. House Appropriations Chairman Robert Livingston (R-LA) recently remarked that he expects authorizing committees to play a more influential role in the coming year. Taking over the chair of the Science Committee from the retiring Robert Walker (R-PA) at the beginning of the 105th Congress is F. James Sensenbrenner, a tenth-term Republican from Wisconsin's ninth district who served in the last Congress as chair of House Science's Subcommittee on Space.
First elected to the House in 1978, Sensenbrenner is known for his conservative views and his irascible nature, particularly toward Democrats. (At an April Science Committee hearing, he referred to Democratic complaints about procedures as "squealing from the animals.") He is a strong proponent of balancing the federal budget, having commented that he came to Washington "to get the government's hands off of the taxpayer's wallet." Sensenbrenner takes pride in having topped several lists in 1994 for voting most consistently against federal spending. (In that year he also ranked lowest in the House on voting with President Clinton.) Although he has opposed science projects like the SSC, he has been an outspoken supporter of both NASA's space station and space science programs, and argued for stabilizing the space agency's funding. Sensenbrenner has been a long-time member of several judiciary subcommittees, but in the 104th Congress he was passed over for those chairmanship positions and put at the head of the Space Subcommittee.
Sensenbrenner hails from a southeastern Wisconsin district that encompasses Milwaukee suburbs, small factory towns, and dairy farms. The population of 544,000 is mostly white and Germanic in origin. Wealthy by birth and a lawyer by training, Sensenbrenner spent 10 years in the Wisconsin state legislature before coming to Washington. In the most strongly Republican district in his state, he is always reelected by an easy margin (74.5% in 1996.) Industries in Wisconsin's ninth district include manufacturers of medical systems, electrical transformers, internal combustion engines, and plumbing fixtures. Waukesha County Technical College (enrollment 4,975) is the only higher education institution with more than 2,000 students.
As Sensenbrenner's predecessor, Walker took pride in getting his committee's authorization bills passed by the House, although none made it through the Senate to the president's desk. Walker insisted that his committee's bills helped guide the appropriations process. Part of that influence, however, could be due to the fact that he belonged to House Speaker Newt Gingrich's (R-GA) inner circle and was vice chairman of the House Budget Committee—connections that Sensenbrenner, not a member of the House leadership, may not possess.
Under the leadership of Chairman George Brown (D-CA) in the Democratic 103rd Congress, the committee spent much time examining the state of the U.S. R&D enterprise, but rarely moved authorization bills out of committee in time to affect the appropriations process. (Brown will continue to be the ranking minority member of the Science Committee in the 105th session, as he was in the 104th.)
From his record, Sensenbrenner will likely continue to be an active protector of the international space station, which he has called "an excellent foundation on which to build the future of our civilian space program." However, the recent loss of a Russian Mars probe may cause his concerns about Russian participation in the space station project to resurface. He defended space science, supporting an increase above the president's request in this year's authorizing legislation, to come partly at the expense of Mission to Planet Earth. He has warned, however, that "NASA has a history of overoptimistic planning" and that many new starts will be unlikely in the current budget situation.
Not much is known of Sensenbrenner's inclinations toward the other programs and agencies under the committee's jurisdiction. He has often followed Walker's lead in such matters as opposing NIST's extramural partnerships and endorsing the elimination of NSF's Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences Directorate, calling the programs, respectively, "corporate welfare and questionable behavioral disciplines." He has strong feelings on the proper role for the federal government in science: "We must prioritize programs and discontinue those functions that the private sector can take over from Washington."
Sensenbrenner can be expected to place great emphasis on progress toward a balanced budget and, consequently, is more likely to seek programs that can be cut or privatized than ones to increase. If he intends to make his mark as committee chairman, he will need to act this spring, while appropriations bills are still being shaped in the House.
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Four more years of a Clinton–Gore White House and a Republican Congress are likely to mean 4 more years of disagreement over the proper role for the federal government in promoting technology development, according to the American Institute of Physics' Bulletin of Science Policy News.
"While both parties agree that the government should support basic research, the country's science and technology infrastructure, and a business climate that encourages innovation, consensus ends there," the Bulletin reported.
"The Republicans, intent on limiting the federal government, feel it should stay out of technology development for commercial applications," it continued. "The Clinton administration argues that government is needed to encourage the development of technologies which would benefit the nation but are too risky, expensive and long-term for any single company to pursue."
The Bulletin pointed out that earlier this year the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) released an 87-page report, entitled "Technology for America's Economic Growth," which documents programs and policies put into place by the Clinton administration to improve the economy through advances in technology.
"Technical progress is the single most important factor in generating sustained economic growth," according to the report, "estimated to account for as much as half the nation's long-term growth over the past 50 years."
The report outlines give main goals for ederal policies:
The first goal, achieving a good business climate, is described in the report as "perhaps the most important factor in the equation for national growth and prosperity." Deficit reduction, removal of antitrust barriers, extension of research and experimentation, and attempts to eliminate unnecessary regulations and revise regulatory policies are advocated by both the administration and the Congress, according to the report. Trade policies, such as NAFTA and GATT, help level the playing field so that American companies have access to and can compete fairly in foreign markets, the report noted.
The second goal involves fostering technology development and diffusion. "Today," according to the report, "the development of new enabling technologies and emerging technologies. . . is at risk."
Government–industry partnership programs, such as NIST's Advanced Technology Program and Manufacturing Extension Partnerships, the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, and the Environmental Technology Initiative are designed to use government resources to encourage and leverage private sector investment, the report noted.
While federal support for the highways, power, and communications infrastructure is still essential, the report said that "new kinds of infrastructure and innovative ways of managing and using existing facilities" are also needed. Federal investments have aided industry development of the National Information Infrastructure, a network of computers, communications, databases, and consumer electronics. The report continues, "there remain essential roles for government. . . to ensure the growth of an information infrastructure available to all Americans at a reasonable cost."
The fourth goal is the integration of military and civilian industrial bases. The report claims that spin-offs from defense R&D are no longer sufficient for the United States to lead the world in civilian technologies, and the nation cannot afford to maintain two distinct industrial bases. The administration's efforts to break down the barriers between civilian and military sectors include dual-use technology programs and defense acquisition reform, according to the report.
The final goal is the development and maintenance of a world-class workforce. Clinton administration proposals to improve education and training include the Goals 2000 program to strengthen K–12 education; direct federal loans and tax deductions for higher education and training; fellowships and job training; and an emphasis, largely through the National Information Infrastructure, on lifelong learning, according to the report.
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The Transportation Appropriations bill for FY97, signed by the president last September, directs the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to include NOAA in a $4.6 million high-priority aviation weather research program.
House–Senate conferees designated NCAR as coordinator of the research program with assistance by NOAA's Forecast Systems Laboratory in Boulder, CO, and the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, OK.
In their report, the conferees wrote they were "disappointed that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was not placing a higher priority on aviation weather safety research" and urged the FAA "to develop a more vigorous and effective program of weather research beginning with the Fiscal Year 1998 budget request."
The FAA was ordered further to provide both the Senate and House Appropriations Committees a report no later than 31 December detailing how the funds are to be spent.
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One or more employees of the Department of Commerce's Office of the Inspector General (OIG) have accused the Inspector General—their boss, Frank DeGeorge—of launching investigations over the past several years whose "conclusions, findings, and recommendations were determined before the audit work was ever started."
The text of the memorandum dated 2 December and addressed to Diana H. Josephson, the deputy undersecretary for oceans and atmosphere, follows.
The OIG (NOAA Division) issued a final report on NWS Staffing (Headquarters and Support Operations) on February 29, 1996. The Audit Manager, GS-14, was Jill Hafflich, who is currently assigned to NIST.
As a result of our recommendations to eliminate over 450 NWS jobs, I feel you need to know the truth and facts behind this audit. I have watched over the past several years our office launch time after time a "search and destroy" mission on the NWS and Dr. Friday. Mr. DeGeorge has made it a personal thing with Dr. Friday, and the integrity of our office has suffered. He has said a number of times, "if the Department can't manage itself, than he would manage it for them." This attitude has led to an attempt to dismantle the NWS at any cost.
Audit Report No. NOA-6979-6-0001
In April 1996 an OIG Quality Assurance review team came out to Silver Spring to review Ms. Haflich's audit report (NWS Staffing), and other work in progress. After reviewing her workpapers, it was decided that there was a lack of supporting documentation and analysis to support our findings/recommendations. Also, the report did not comply with GAO (Yellow Book) Auditing Standards. In addition, other senior audit managers who looked at the report came to the same conclusion. A GS-12, Auditor (Arthur Fagan) was assigned the task of cleaning up the workpapers so that they could meet GAO Auditing Standards. He spent three weeks doing this in April. The NOAA Division Director (Chuck Tegler) was responsible for all aspects of this audit, and yet never reviewed the work in progress. There was no cost analysis done to support the recommendation to out-source NWS work, nor was there any analytical work of any kind to support the recommendation to eliminate 450 NWS jobs. There was no on-site visit by any OIG staff assigned to this audit to the Kansas City warehouse to determine if it was an efficient operation. The conclusions, findings, and recommendations were determined before the audit work was ever started, and this is very sad, when it effects peoples jobs. This type of creative audit report is condoned and encouraged by the IG himself, if the "body count" is high enough. There are certain OIG audit staff that do not agree with this policy and will report only on the facts.
In conclusion, this audit report can be summarized by the words spoken by Ms. Haflich a number of times to her fellow workers: "I write my audit reports the way Frank (IG) want to hear them."
We will report any further developments in the January issue of the AMS Newsletter.
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A near-record number of major hurricanes punctuated an active season of Atlantic tropical cyclones this year. Thirteen named storms produced 9 hurricanes, 6 of them with wind speeds exceeding 100 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
"Thirteen named storms in 1996 ties 4 other years—most recently 1984—as the ninth most active Atlantic season since records began in 1886. This puts 1996 easily within the top 10% of our 110-year record," said Bob Burpee, director of the National Hurricane Center.
A tropical storm is named when its (1-minute sustained surface) wind speed reaches 39 mph. It is classified as a hurricane when its wind speed reaches 74 mph. A hurricane is considered major when its winds top 110 mph, equivalent to category 3 or greater on the Saffir–Simpson Scale, a 1-to-5 scale that measures hurricane intensity.
"In our collective staff memory, this is the first year that every tropical depression turned into a named storm," Burpee said. An average season in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico has 9 named storms, 6 of them reaching hurricane strength, with 2 of major strength.
The 1996 hurricane season was much more active than the long-term average. The season's 9 hurricanes tie 1955 and 1980 as the eighth most active year on record. The season's 6 major hurricanes comprise the highest number in one year since 1961.
For comparison, 1995 was the second most active Atlantic hurricane season on record (after 1933's 21) with 10 named storms, of which 11 were hurricanes and 5 categorized as major.
This year's 13 tropical storms are significant when coupled with the 21 named storms in 1995's active season, Burpee said. The combined total of 34 tropical storms is the largest number in two consecutive years since the National Hurricane Center was organized in 1935.
Burpee observed that while 2 years does not constitute a trend, it is noteworthy to have 2 very active years (1995–96) coming after 4 very inactive ones.
"Imbedded in these storm numbers are hard realities: 1996's tropical cyclones were responsible for the deaths of at least 135 people throughout the Caribbean, Central America, and the United States and more than $3.5 billion in damage in the United States only," said Burpee. "Preparation and vigilance are required in any year."
Highlights of the 1996 season include the following.
The 183-day Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November.
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The 1997 hurricane season will see slightly above-average hurricane activity—including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes—Colorado State University's noted hurricane researcher William Gray said in a report released today.
If Gray's prediction is accurate, 1997 will be the third consecutive season of above-average hurricane formation—something Gray says might signal the return of increased hurricane activity. Also, if 1997 lives up to this prediction, 1995–97 would become the most active 3-year hurricane span in history. That directly contrasts with 1991–94, the most inactive 4-year period in history. "It appears that we have left the period of lessened hurricane activity and it is possible we could be seeing a basic change in the long-term global circulation patterns, " Gray said. This change could result in increased hurricane activity, perhaps somewhat similar to the very active period of the mid-1940s to late 1960s."
In the research team's first forecast for the 1997 hurricane season, Gray and his colleagues predict a total of 11 tropical storms will form between 1 June and 30 November. From those storms, 7 hurricanes will evolve and 3 will go on to become major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. On average, 9.3 tropical storms, 5.8 hurricanes, and 2.1 major hurricanes form annually.
Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir–Simpson Intensity Scale from 1 to 5. Hurricanes of category 3 or greater are considered major storms. It is these storms that cause 75% of all hurricane-spawned damage.
Gray and his research team base their forecasts on a number of global weather features. In today's forecast, Gray points to two factors that indicate above-average activity. First, Gray and his team predict that there will be no El Niño, or warmer-than-normal water temperatures, off the coast of Peru. When El Niño is in place, it produces upper-level westerly winds at 40,000 feet in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This thwarts hurricane development. Gray predicts the temperatures off Peru will be slightly cooler than average, or La Niña conditions will be in place, which will promote hurricane activity.
In addition, the equatorial stratospheric winds at 68,000–75,000 feet, known as the quasi-biennial oscillation, will blow from a relative westerly direction, which tends to promote the formation of hurricanes, particularly major hurricanes.
In addition to these factors, Gray and his colleagues also look at other weather signals around the globe. For example, Gray says that the temperature readings of air above Singapore at the 100-millibar level—or about 54,000 feet—have been colder than usual, which is a precursor for above-normal hurricane activity for the Atlantic Ocean in the 6- to 12-month period.
"If you look at the globe as one interconnected unit, there are surprising forecasting signals that allow you with some skill to predict what will occur months in advance," Gray said. "We're constantly adding things to our forecast, like the Singapore temperature readings, that are surprising precursors to hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin."
Gray's hurricane forecasts—issued in December, April, June, and August—do not predict landfall and apply only to the Atlantic basin, the area encompassing the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
Gray and research team members Chris Landsea, John Knaff, Paul Mielke, and Kenneth Berry rely primarily on the following factors to issue their forecasts: the strength or weakness of El Niño, the direction of equatorial stratospheric winds at 68,000–75,000 feet, rainfall in the West African Sahel region, temperature and pressure readings in West Africa, Caribbean sea level pressure readings, Atlantic sea surface temperature readings, and tropospheric winds at 40,000 feet. Gray also has added pressure readings in the northeast Atlantic to his forecast.
Gray's forecast for the 1996 season fell short. In August, Gray and his research team predicted that 11 tropical storms would form and evolve into 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes. Last season saw 13 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes.
Gray said missing the mark, particularly on the number of major storms, could be another indication that we are headed toward more hurricane activity in the coming years. In 1995, the Atlantic saw 19 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.
"The 1996 hurricane season was very active, and the 1995 season was one of the most active ever. One reason we may have underforecast for 1996 is that our forecast is based on historical data and the belief that the atmosphere will behave in the future as it has in the past," Gray said. "The problem last year may have been that we are seeing the return of a more active period—much like we saw in the 1940s—and that doesn't show up in our dataset, which starts in the 1950s."
Gray also pointed to another signal of a possible return to increased hurricane activity.
"In the last 2 years we have seen a major rearrangement of Atlantic Ocean surface temperature patterns, where the North Atlantic has become warmer and the South Atlantic has become cooler," Gray said. "This change promotes major hurricane activity and could be another sign that we're entering a new, and likely more dangerous, period for hurricane activity.
GRAY RESEARCH TEAM HURRICANE FORECASTS 1996–97 SEASON
| Today's Forecast | |
| Named Storms (9.3)* | 11 |
| Named Storm Days (46.1) | 55 |
| Hurricanes (5.8) | 7 |
| Hurricane Days (23) | 25 |
| Intense Hurricanes (2.1) | 3 |
| Intense Hurricane Days (4.5) | 5 |
| Hurricane Destruction Potential (68.1) | 75 |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (100%) | 110 |
| Actual | August 1996 | June 1996 | April 1996 | November 1995 | |
| Named Storms (9.3) | 13 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 8 |
| Named Storm Days (46.1) | 78 | 50 | 45 | 55 | 40 |
| Hurricanes (5.8) | 9 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| Hurricane Days (23) | 45 | 25 | 20 | 25 | 20 |
| Intense Hurricanes (2.1) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Intense Hurricane Days (4.5) | 13 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Hurricane Destruction Potential (68.1) # | 135 | 70 | 60 | 75 | 50 |
| Net Tropical Cyclonectivity (100%) | 198 | 105 | 95 | 105 | 85 |
( ) represents average year totals based on 1950–90
# Hurricane destruction potential measures a hurricane's potential forwind- and ocean-surge damage.
* Tropical storm, hurricane, and intense hurricane days are four 6-hour periods where storms attain wind speeds appropriate to their category.
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A customized weather information program for public safety agencies is being developed by the Oklahoma Climatological Survey at the University of Oklahoma with a $550,000 federal grant from the U.S. Department of Commerce.
OCS will establish computer links for 32 public safety agencies—including police, fire, and civil emergency management organizations throughout Oklahoma—and tailor weather information to meet their needs. The new program is called Oklahoma's First-Response Information Resource System Using Telecommunications, or OK-FIRST.
The customized weather information will allow public officials to respond more quickly and effectively to impending severe weather, hazardous material spills, range fires, and other weather-related emergencies that may affect lives and property.
"This grant is a wonderful opportunity for Oklahoma to lead the nation in public safety and state weather information services," said U.S. Representative J. C. Watts Jr. in announcing the award. "This advanced knowledge is important with Oklahoma's unpredictable weather, and in the end, it will save lives."
The program will utilize data from the Oklahoma Mesonet, a network of 114 automated weather stations across the state that provide observation reports to OCS electronically every 15 minutes. In addition, National Weather Service data from 10 to 15 radars in and around Oklahoma will be available through a partnership with Unisys Weather Information Services of Kennett Square, PA.
OK-FIRST will use two existing telecommunications networks to distribute specifically tailored weather information to local communities. The first, OneNet, is a statewide fiber optic network managed by the Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education. The second network is the Oklahoma Law Enforcement System operated by the Oklahoma Department of Public Safety.
In addition to the National Weather Service, other agencies supporting the effort include the Oklahoma State Department for Civil Emergency Management, Oklahoma University's Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, and Oklahoma University's Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies.
"This innovative program will place Oklahoma in a position to be the role model for the other 49 states in providing information from the modernized weather service to public safety agencies of Oklahoma—fire, police, and emergency management," said Kennedy Crawford, OCS director and OU professor of meteorology.
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In 1959, a computer filled an entire room, hula hoops were in vogue, and Detroit canceled the Edsel after two years of sluggish sales. It was also the year the National Weather Service installed one of its first weather radar systems at South Carolina's Charleston Airport.
Like automobiles with driver-operated lubrication systems and electronic equipment relying on vacuum tubes, the Charleston radar, serial number 16, has been displaced by technology, the last of its kind decommissioned by the National Weather Service in favor of a state-of-the-art Doppler weather radar.
"We can finally throw away the grease pencils," said Charleston meteorologist David George, referring to the technique used to trace weather systems as they passed across the old radar screen. "With the Doppler radar, map backgrounds are built into the system and storms can be tracked automatically, freeing up the radar operator for other tasks," George said, adding, "Gone are the days when forecasters had to manually turn a crank to adjust the radar's scan elevation or scramble for spare parts no longer manufactured in this country."
Manufactured in 1957, using World War II technology, the old Charleston radar was part of a network that served the nation well for more than 35 years. For the first time, a forecaster had an electronic picture, albeit primitive by today's standards, of approaching storm systems.
"It took considerable skill to determine storm intensities from green blotches on the radar scope," said Steve Rich, meteorologist in charge of the Charleston office. "It took even greater skill to tell if a storm had tornadic characteristics."
Like the user-friendliness built into much of today's technology, the new Doppler radars not only produce highly accurate storm signatures, but will sound an alarm if a storm looks like it will spawn a tornado. "For the first time in history, we are now able to broadcast a tornado warning for a given area before a tornado is formed," Rich said. "This is a remarkable technological achievement and has already saved many lives."
Forecasters liken Doppler images to a CAT scan, as the system can dissect approaching weather systems at different elevations and produce brilliant color-coded portraits of a storm's most intense areas. Hail can be distinguished from rain, and the machine can eventually tell how much precipitation a storm dropped in a given area.
The weather service's installation of 118 Doppler systems is part of a nationwide modernization effort designed to take advantage of the latest in computer and communications technology. More than 100 radars are already on line, with the network expected to be completed next year.
The 1957 weather surveillance radar, however, will not disappear over the technological horizon. A California firm refurbishes them, and a number of nations and private interests are still bringing them on line.
To see a graphic comparing the images from the 1957 radars with the WSR-88D Doppler radars, visit the NWS Web site: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/modernize/radars.htm
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The National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS), a program to converge the nation's civilian and military environmental satellites, rebaselined the program in early 1996, an action that is expected to result in a savings of $350 over the next 6 years, according to NOAA officials.
The multiagency (NOAA, DOD, and NASA) Integrated Program Office (IPO) was successful in obtaining its rebaselined funding levels from Congress in the FY97 omnibus spending bill.
As part of the rebaselining effort, the IPO structured the financing of the program to reflect a 50/50 split in funding for the program between the Departments of Commerce and Defense. The IPO undertook the rebaselining to take advantage of the ongoing health of the current on-orbit NOAA and air force satellites, as well as those in production or in storage. The strong position of those two areas enabled the IPO to delay the first scheduled launch of a NPOESS satellite from year 2004 to 2007. The additional 3 years gained by the rebaselined scenario resulted in the $350 million cost savings to the program.
The IPO is expected to save a total of $1.7 billion over the life of the program, officials reported.
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Recent images produced from the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) are giving scientists new insight into the Antarctic ice sheet and the Amazon rainforest, after researchers devised ways of using the ocean-monitoring instrument to study land and ice.
The scatterometer's primary function is to study winds over the oceans. A scientist at Brigham Young University (BYU), Provo, UT, however, has developed a way of enhancing the resolution of the instrument's radar backscatter to take a detailed look at land and ice surfaces as well.
"A radar scatterometer measures the radar backscattering cross section of the earth's surface. Measurements of the backscatter over the ocean are used to infer the near-surface wind speed and direction, but also can be used over land to study ice and vegetation," said Dr. David Long, an NSCAT team member at BYU. "Areas which reflect more microwaves are typically rougher and appear brighter in the images than smoother areas, which reflect less. The electrical properties of the surface also affect the image brightness. This is the first time we've been able to provide rapid, global coverage that is both uniform and accurate at this resolution."
The polar regions play a central role in regulating global climate, and it is important to accurately record and monitor the extent and surface conditions of the earth's major ice masses, according to Long. Scientists are using the Antarctic image to understand the effects of the ice pack on the oceans and on related climate systems. The image shows variations in the ice sheet, as well as a "super-iceberg" that broke off the Thwaites ice tongue and is now circulating in the sea ice pack.
"Spaceborne radar remote sensors are uniquely well suited for mapping the polar regions since the radar can image the surface through clouds, both day and night. Similarly, radars also are useful for vegetation studies because different vegetation types and densities have different radar responses," Long said. "Tropical rainforests are critical to the climatic health of the earth and are thought to contain half of all the world's species."
The new NSCAT image shows the extent of the tropical rainforest. The false color image is being used by scientists to identify types of vegetation on the surface, which allows them to differentiate between areas of tropical rainforest and regions of woodlands and savanna.
"This technique of using the scatterometer to study land and ice is a great new application of this radar instrument. We can get measurements of ice extent for use in research and as an aid to shipping, and we get them accurately and frequently under all weather conditions," said Jim Graf, the NSCAT project manger at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, CA. "We can view large-scale vegetation changes enabling us to track the processes of desertification and deforestation. Data from the NSCAT instrument is extremely versatile and can be used to measure short-term changes over the oceans and long-term changes over the land and ice."
The scatterometer uses an array of sticklike antennas that radiate microwave pulses in the Ku-Band across broad regions of the earth's surface. A small fraction of the energy in the radar pulses is reflected back and captured by NSCAT's antennas. At any given time NSCAT's array of six dual-beam antennas scans two swaths of ocean or land—one on either side of the satellite's near-polar, sun-synchronous, 500-mile orbit. Each swath is 375 miles wide.
The scatterometer makes 30-mile resolution measurements of the wind over the oceans. This resolution is too coarse for most land and ice studies, but through computer enhancement of the data, Long is able to produce images with a virtual resolution of 4.8 miles or better. "This resolution is still coarse when compared with photographs, but it is nearly ideal for studying many land and ice processes," Long concluded.
The NSCAT instrument was launched on 16 August 1996, aboard Japan's Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS). ADEOS is an international global change research mission of the National Space Development Agency of Japan, which includes instruments from the United States, Japan, and France, with investigators from many other countries. The satellite is a key part of an international environmental research effort that includes NASA's Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) program, a long-term, coordinated research effort to study the earth as a global environmental system. The goal of MTPE is to develop a better scientific understanding of natural environmental changes and to distinguish between natural and human-made changes and impacts.
JPL developed, built, and manages the NSCAT instrument for NASA's Office of Mission to Planet Earth, Washington, DC.
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Preliminary new evidence suggests that periodic increases in atmospheric dust concentrations during the glacial periods of the last 100,000 years may have resulted in significant regional warming and that this warming may have triggered the abrupt climatic changes observed in paleoclimate records, according to Jonathan T. Overpeck, head of the Paleoclimatology Program at NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center in Boulder, CO. Current scientific thinking is that the dust concentrations contributed instead to glacial cooling.
Jonathan Overpeck, along with David Rind and Andrew Lacis of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Richard Healy of Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research, report the preliminary findings of their recent climate research in the 5 December issue of Nature magazine. They point out the need for additional climate research, including additional ice core and geological data, to improve our understanding of aerosols and their impact on climate change.
Overpeck and the team conducted global climate model simulations to examine the potential role of tropospheric dust in glacial climates. Comparing "modern dust" with "glacial dust" conditions, they found patterns of regional warming that increased at progressively higher latitudes. The warming was greatest (up to 4.4°C) in regions with dust over snow- and ice-covered areas.
The team conducted another set of simulations using interactive sea surface temperatures. The mid- to high-latitude warming was reduced from 4.4°C to 2.4°C, but the main regions of significant warming remained concentrated in areas where the dust loading coincides with snow- or ice-covered land areas. The authors point out that their results are conservative in several respects and that the regional warming may have been significantly greater than 2.4° during some extreme dust events.
The scientists found that mineral dust appears to have been the most globally distributed aerosol during glacial periods, with the largest radiative effect over snow- and ice-covered regions. Episodic dust loading may have provided the warming needed to trigger the ice, ocean, and atmospheric changes associated with abrupt climatic events during the past 100,000 years, they wrote.
Many abrupt climatic events of the last 100,000 years, which included dramatic reorganization of the earth's atmosphere–ocean system, are still poorly understood. The new results regarding the possible impacts of high atmospheric dust concentrations shed new light on the mechanisms behind these climate reorganizations and, hence, on how the coupled atmosphere–ocean system may respond in the future.
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Researchers at Utrecht University have estimated the projected savings in human illness could be up to 1.5 million skin cancer cases averted each year in the United States alone.
Using new computer models, a five-member team wrote in the journal Nature that global policy makers avoided a potential disaster by acting to prevent further erosion of the earth's protective ozone layer.
"These results demonstrate the importance of international measures," the researchers reported.
Without restrictions on halocarbons, the number of skin cancer cases worldwide would have quadrupled by the year 2100, according to the researchers. That translates to 1.5 million additional cases a year in the United States and 550,000 cases in Europe.
Assuming that most countries fully cooperate with recent agreements on reducing halocarbon production, the report read, skin cancer rates in the United States will climb just 10% by 2100.
Under a 1992 accord, production of 21 ozone-depleting substances was to be halted by the end of 1995.
While some governments and many industries resisted the ban, the new Dutch study bolsters previous findings that suggested the restrictions might be effective. Some experts on ozone depletion said the Dutch report is particularly credible because it takes into account a range of time-dependent effects, such as the long interval between exposure to ultraviolet radiation and the development of tumors.
"This is the most accurate calculation to date of the potential health consequences of ozone depletion," said Michael Oppenheimer, a chemical physicist who chairs the global atmospheric program for the Environmental Defense Fund.
"It's clear that if nothing had been done," he said, "we would have been stuck with cancer rates that would have gone through the roof."
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Samuel L. Venneri has been named chief technologist at NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC. Venneri will report directly to Administrator Daniel S. Goldin, and serve as the principal advisor and advocate on matters concerning agency-wide technology policy and programs. As chief technologist, Venneri also will chair NASA's Technology Leadership Council, whose members consist of the enterprise associate administrators, the chief engineer and chief scientist, the comptroller, and NASA center directors.
Before being named chief technologist, Venneri served as director of the Spacecraft Systems Division in the former Office of Space Access and Technology. In that position he was responsible for the planning, advocacy, and direction of all spacecraft and advanced instrument research and technology activities within that office.
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