Editor: Jim Elliott

Contributors: Alan Weinstein and Ginny Owen

Copy Editor: Anne Siefken

Volume 19, Number 11, November 1998

U.S. BUDGET NEWS

• NOAA Receives $2.166 Billion for FY99 Appropriation
• NSF FY99 Appropriation Set at $3.67 Billion
• Final Appropriations Bill Gives NASA $13.6 Billion for FY99
• DOE's Biological and Environmental Research Gets $443 Million Appropriation
• NIST FY99 Appropriation Set at $647.1 Million

WEATHER AND CLIMATE

• El Niño and Climate More Predictable than Previously Thought
• Volunteer Science Team Soars Toward Better Weather Forecasting
• NCAR Weather Group Multiplies Its Raw Computing Power by Ten—At No Direct Cost to NCAR
• Societal Impacts of Weather Disasters to Focus More Attention on Weather Services

SATELLITES AND SPACE

• Like it or Not, Space Weather Activities Will Increase and Become More Intense
• The NOAA-15 Replaces Older Weather Satellite
• Triana Mission Selected
• NWS and Air Force Meteorologists Play Major Role in Senator Glenn Space Mission

ENVIRONMENTAL NEWS

• North American Land Mass Soaking up Carbon Dioxide
• NASA Helps "Hot" Cities Cool Down
• NASA Selects Regional Earth Science Applications Centers

U.S. BUDGET NEWS

NOAA RECEIVES $2.166 BILLION FOR FY99 APPROPRIATION

Under a bill finally approved by the Congress and the president, NOAA will receive a FY99 appropriation of $2 166 001 000, an increase over the president's request of $2 116 670 000. The conferees included $1 579 844 000 in the ORF account, $584 677 000 in the PAC account and $1 480 000 in other NOAA accounts. The House had proposed $1 470 042 000, and the Senate $1 612 027 000. ORF funding by line item recommended by the conferees, House and Senate were

(in thousands)

A breakdown of procurements, acquisition, and construction as recommended by the conferees, House and Senate shows

The president requested $251.2 million for OAR and the conference appropriated $287.4 million. However, this apparent large increase is deceiving since the Undersea Program received $10 million more than the president requested (but $1 million less than in FY98); the $6.8 million for GLERL was included in the OAR budget instead of the NOS budget; Sea Grant received $7.0 million more than the president's request (but only $1.5 million above FY98); and the Marine Research Prediction Program received about $11 million more than the president's request. The $11 million included $2 or $3 million for aquaculture research, $2.3 million for modernization of the Tsunami Program, $4.0 million for activities in West Virginia, $1.4 million for the transfer of the XBT program from NOS, as well as other smaller items.

In OAR, $4.5 million was provided for the computer for FSL, $2.0 million in crease in Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, and $0.6 million for Atmospheric Research. The president's request for GLOBE was decreased from $6.0 million to $2.5 million. In NESDIS the president's request of $224 million was reduced to $199 million for NOAA K—M and for Polar Convergence, and the president's request of $290 million was reduced to $265 million for GOES I—M and N—Q. The $4.0 million was provided for Ocean Remote Survey and $2.5 million for the Global Wind Satellite project. The Data Centers received $1.0 million less than the administration's modest request of $28.6 million. The request of $16.3 million for modernization was fully supported. The $2.5 million was provided for Regional Climate Centers and $5.0 million was added for a data preservation project in West Virginia.

The president requested $564 million for the National Weather Service and the Conference appropriated $560.7 million. The president's request for continued acquisitions for NEXRAD ($7.0 million), ASOS ($3.8 million and AWIPS ($67.7 million) were all fully supported by Congress. After considerable confusion, the funding of $4.6 million for the new supercomputer for NCEP was supported as well as continued funding at current levels for the staff at NCEP. However, the Advanced Hydrological Prediction Initiative was not supported.

NSF FY99 APPROPRIATION SET AT $3.67 BILLION

Congress sent President Clinton the appropriations bill funding the National Science Foundation (NSF) for FY99, providing the agency with $3.67 billion. The amount represents a $243 million increase (or 7.1%) over FY 98 funding. The administration wanted a 10% increase.

Under Research and Related Activities, the account realized a $224 million (or 8.8%) increase over FY98, less than the administration's request for an 11.8% increase. In Education and Human Resources, the increase amounted to $29 million (or 4.7%) to $662.0 million. The administration wanted a 7.9% increase. Under Major Research Equipment, the bill provides $90.0 million, while the administration had requested $94.0 million.

Dropped from the legislation was Senate language earmarking $6.0 million for the establishment of three university-based centers to study information technology needs. Also dropped was similar language directing $12 million for three new multi-investigator applied molecular biology centers.

NSF had been instructed to award all this money to schools that were not "within the top 100 of NSF's survey of universities and colleges receiving federal research support to overcome bias toward more established institutions." Instead, the conferees expect NSF to take steps to "enhance the resources need for the establishment of new centers to meet the purpose as proposed by the Senate and review the desirability and feasibility of establishing a new and separate pool of resources to benefit doctoral I and II institutions" as defined by the Carnegie Foundation. These reviews are to be submitted by 1 April 1999.

Earth and Ocean Sciences Research received notice by the conferees on how the Research and Related Activities budget should be spent. They reported, "The foundation is expected to spread this increase (in the overall R&RA budget) across all research directorates in a proportional manner consistent with the budget proposal. Within this framework, the foundation is expected to make every effort to maximize resources for the Ocean, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences programs. The director of NSF is developing the allocation for each directorate, including geosciences.

"The conferees also note that the GLOBE program has been provided up to $2 000 000." The conferees later cite a National Research Council report, entitled "Opportunities in Ocean Science," and instruct NSF to "counsel with the National Ocean Leadership Council and the Office of Management and Budget to define ocean science initiatives that will help realize the economic and environmental benefits described in the report."

The conferees provided $22.0 million, $12.5 million more than the request, for the U.S. Arctic Program "to support ongoing and planned high priority research in the Arctic region, including appropriate logistic needs."

Senate report language on high-speed networking in some states such as Hawaii and Alaska and a long-term ecological research center in a mountain wilderness area was not removed by the conferees. Also left standing was a Senate statement expressing the need for "quantifiable goals and milestones, and absent compliance, the committee may have to consider appropriating program specific funding."

Under Education and Human Resources, $13.5 million is provided for "education reform initiatives targeted to underrepresented populations served through the nation's historically black colleges and universities." Informal science education received an additional $10 million above the request, as did EPSCoR.

In the concluding section of the report, entitled "General Provisions," the conferees noted that the Office of Science and Technology Policy should "contract with the National Academy of Sciences for a study to develop methods for evaluating federally funded research and development programs."

FINAL APPROPRIATIONS BILL GIVES NASA $13.6 BILLION FOR FY99

The final FY99 appropriations bill to fund the VA, HUD, and Independent Agencies was approved by the House on 6 October and the Senate on 7 October. With compromise language having been reached on the EPA section dealing with the implementation of the Kyoto global warming treaty, President Clinton signed the bill in early October.

In the bill, NASA total funding would be increased over the request. The conferees would provide $13.665 billion, while the request was for $13.465 billion. The agency's Science, Aeronautics, and Technology (SAT) account also realized increased funding over the request, while Human Space Flight (HSF) would be funded at slightly less than the request.

NASA Appropriations

(in millions)

One issue reflected in the conference report is NASA's dealings with Russia in the development of the International Space Station (ISS). NASA had asked Congress permission to purchase from Russia components and services that the Russian Space Agency was supposed to contribute to the ISS. The conferees would delay the transfer of payments until NASA submits a report exploring alternate financial arrangements, including dealing directly with Russian contractors.

Language in the conference report also would affect several changes recommended in the Senate report. Senate appropriators had recommended two changes to NASA's account structure. They would separate the HSF account into one account for the ISS and another for Launch Vehicles and Payload Operations. They also would separate the SAT account into one account for Science and Technology and another for Aeronautics, Transportation, and Technology. However, the conferees agreed to retain the current account structure for FY99.

In regard to the space station, the conferees reported, "The conferees direct NASA to provide as part of its FY2000 budget submission a separate account for the International Space Station. The conferees have taken this action because of concern that the current account structure may facilitate the easy movement of funding from other human space flight activities into the space station program without timely or adequate notification to the Congress."

To restrict transfers in FY99, the conferees included a general provision that "NASA must limit transfers of funds between programs and activities to not more than $500 000 without prior approval of the Committee on Appropriations."

Under the SAT account, Space Science would receive $2.119 million, an increase of $60.8 million (or 3.0%) over the request and 6.8% over FY98 funding. In the report, 14 specific projects are targeted for increases, totaling $82.0 million. This is to be taken from the $60.8 million increase and a $21.2 million reduction to be applied to the rest of the programs within Space Science.

Some of the 14 projects specified for increases are: $20.0 million increase for Mars 2001; $12.0 million increase for Next Generation Space Telescope; $10.0 million increase for Space Solar Power; $1.0 million increase for the Near Earth Asteroid Tracking Program, and an $11.0 million increase "for sun–earth connecting advance technology development to provide full funding for Solar-B, continue microsatellite technology and support launch of solar stereo by 2002."

Under Earth Sciences, the conferees would provide $1,413 million, an increase of $41.8 million (or 3.1%) over the request and 3.4% over the FY98 funding. Nine items were cited for specific increases, including a $25.0 million boost "to support the EOS AM-1 launch requirement, including interoperability of the EOS ground systems." Life and Microgravity Sciences would receive $263.5 million, an increase of $21.5 million (or 8.9%) over the request and 23.0% over the FY98 funding. Under Human Space Flight, the conferees provided $3,028 million for the Space Shuttle while Payload and Utilization would get $182.0 million. International Space Station development-related activities would receive $2,270.0 million, equal to the request.

The conference report noted that while the first and second elements of the space station are essentially ready for launch later this year, "the critical third element, the Russian-provided service module, still requires some assembly and has been scheduled for launch in April of 1999. Currently, the launch date of the service module is in a state of flux and further delay will most likely occur. The conferees are very concerned about the status of the space station development schedule and in particular the impact of the economic and political situation in Russia. Because of this concern, the conferees will not endorse fiscal year 1999 transfer payments to the Russian government at this time."

DOE'S BIOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH GETS $443 MILLION APPROPRIATION

House and Senate conferees agreed to a $2 682 860 000 appropriation for DOE science in the FY99 budget. The amount represented an increase over the $2399.5 million House proposal and over the Senate proposal of $2634.2 million.

In the area of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), the conference agreed to an appropriation of $443.6 million, also an increase over House and Senate proposals, which were $405.9 million and $407.6 million, respectively. The conferees included $3.0 million in addition to the amount in the budget request for the low-dose effects program, for which an additional $5.0 million is provided in the Defense Environmental Managements account.

A breakdown of the BER appropriation shows $120.237 million for Environmental Processes. In that amount is $65.774 million for Climate and Hydrology; $32.719 million for Atmospheric Chemistry and Carbon Cycle; $12.337 million for Ecological Processes, and $9.407 million for Human Interactions. The conferees provided $67.435 million for Environmental Remediation and $76.411 million for Medical Applications and Measurement Science.

Interestingly, the conferees provided funding for a number of what would appear to be local projects. These projects included $10.5 million for the Institute of Molecular Biology and Medicine to continue microbial genomics research initiated in FY98; $8 million to Sacramento County as the Local Redevelopment Authority for medical research; educational development at the McClellan nuclear reactor center in conjunction with the University of California, Davis, and $1 million for the Gallo Institute of the Cancer Institute of New Jersey for regional prostate cancer research, education, and treatment initiatives to develop model outreach and early diagnosis and intervention strategies, focusing on cancer in minority men.

Also, $1 million was appropriated to begin planning for the marine mammal research and education center at the National Energy Laboratory in Hawaii; $2.5 million for the bone marrow transplantation/radioimmunotherapy demonstration project at the City of Hope National Medical Center in California; $10 million for the creation of a program to develop technologies using advanced functional brain imaging methodologies, including magnetoencephalography, for the conduct of basic research in mental illness and neurological disorders, and $2 million for the State University of New York at Stony Brook, to create a comprehensive cancer institute to serve as a focal point (in conjunction with regional cancer centers, the Brookhaven National Laboratory and the Cold Springs Harbor Laboratory) for a concentrated, multidisciplinary approach to basic and clinical research, detection, and molecular analysis of cancer and development of new diagnostics and therapies targeting cancer.

In addition, the conferees provided $1 million for the design, planning, and construction of an interdisciplinary science facility at the University of Alabama Tuscaloosa; $1 million for the continued construction of the Highlands University Science Center in New Mexico, and $7 million to be evenly divided between the West Virginia University National Education and Technology Center and the University of South Carolina Medical Center to support the utilization of Positron Emission Tomography.

NIST FY99 APPROPRIATION SET AT $647.1 MILLION

The FY99 appropriation for the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is $647.1 million, $67.9 million under President Clinton's request or 91% of the request.

The appropriation is divided into three portions:

1. Scientific and Technical Research Services (STRS). A total of $280.1 million was provided, $11.5 million under the president's request or 96% of the request. The amount includes funding for two components: the NIST Measurement and Standards Laboratories and the National Quality Program, which helps U.S. companies to reach their full potential through the practice of quality strategies and performance excellence.

The STRS appropriation includes $275.2 million for the Measurement and Standards Laboratories ($11 million under the president's request or 96%. Included in this amount is funding for the following initiatives—$1.8 million in additional funding to provide new measurement tools and services for the semiconductor device, equipment, and materials industries and $2.0 million additional funding to create the comprehensive structure of technical measurements and standards needed for international trade and to promote global use of U.S. measurement and standards. The STRS appropriation also features $4.9 million for the Baldrige National Quality Program ($0.5 million under the president's request or 91%) that will permit NIST to establish and manage Baldrige awards for performance excellence in health care and education.

Also, $310.3 million ($56.4 million under the president's request or 85%) for technology development and industrial outreach under the Industrial Technology Services (ITS) appropriation. The appropriation includes cost-shared funding to industry for high-risk research and development through the Advanced Technology Program (ATP) and more widely distributed services and expanded hands-on technical assistance to smaller manufacturers through a nationwide network of centers under the Manufacturing Extension Partnership.

The ITS appropriation includes $203.5 million ($56.4 million under the president's request or 78%) for the Advanced Technology Program, including $66 million for new awards in FY99. Also, $106.8 million (the president's full FY99 request) for the Manufacturing Extension Partnership to continue providing the federal share of funding needed to support the network of centers serving smaller manufacturers in all 50 States and Puerto Rico. Also given the full amount requested by the president was $56.7 million for improving NIST's 30- to 45-year-old research facilities to ensure a safe working environment for NIST staff and the continued capability to provide U.S. industry and science with the best possible measurement system.

The NIST appropriation is part of a $656.6 million funding for the Commerce Department's Office of the Under Secretary for Technology, the Office of Technology Policy, the Office of Space Commercialization and NIST. This appropriation is $68.4 million under the president's request, or 91%. The president signed the bill on 21 October.

WEATHER AND CLIMATE

EL NIÑO AND CLIMATE MORE PREDICTABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT

Fluctuations in the earth's climate from year to year, such as those that are associated with El Niño, are considerably more predictable than had been previously believed, according to a paper appearing in Science in October. The research was jointly funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), NOAA, and NASA.

"For more than 30 years, the so-called 'butterfly effect' has been the dominant paradigm for weather forecasting," says scientist J. Shukla of the George Mason University Center for Ocean–Land–Atmospheric Studies (COLA), lead author of the Science paper. "It has now been demonstrated that there are important exceptions to the butterfly effect and that certain aspects of climate are far more predictable than previously thought."

The butterfly effect is a reference to the chaotic nature of day-to-day atmospheric fluctuations, explains Jay Fein, director of NSF's climate dynamics program, which funds COLA research. Such weather events cannot be predicted precisely beyond one to two weeks in the future. For several decades, the prevailing view in scientific circles was that it was not possible to predict weather and climate variations beyond this intrinsic limit. Research by Shukla and his colleagues at COLA has shown that, although weather cannot be predicted beyond a few days away, atmospheric circulation and precipitation, averaged for an entire season, are potentially predictable. "Indeed, there is predictability in the midst of chaos," Shukla says. "We now have a scientific basis for climate prediction, and that suggests that the large- scale effects of all future major El Niño events should be predictable several months in advance."

Seasonal averages especially in the Tropics are most predictable because the tropical atmosphere responds directly to slowly varying conditions at the earth's surface. Shukla and his colleagues at COLA have run models of the global climate to show that seasonal mean weather conditions are determined by sea surface temperature, soil wetness, vegetation, and snow cover. In particular, variations in sea surface temperature such as those that are associated with El Niño can significantly alter weather in the Tropics for an entire season, or longer. High predictability of the tropical atmosphere can also enhance the predictability of the North American region. Shukla says that if changes in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature are large, the seasonal average atmospheric circulation over the north Pacific and North America is also highly predictable.

"It is no accident that seasonal predictions made by several research groups around the world for last winter (1997–98) were quite accurate," Shukla points out. "Those unprecedented forecasts were just the first examples of the accurate predictions of major El Niño events. We can expect more such in the future."

VOLUNTEER SCIENCE TEAM SOARS TOWARD BETTER WEATHER FORECASTING

from Cheryl Dybas, National Science Foundation

A volunteer team of scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), in Boulder, Colorado, and glider pilots from the Soaring Society of Boulder, spent this past spring exploring an elusive atmospheric phenomenon from a high-performance, hybrid aircraft called a motorglider. Supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), the scientists are now analyzing what was learned about thermal waves—the gravity waves that sometimes form above rising columns of warm air called thermals. Thermals are perhaps best known to hawk-watchers, as these air currents are used by hawks, eagles, and other birds of prey, as well as by man-made gliders or sailplanes, to gain altitude in motorless flight. Thermal waves, which have eluded thorough scientific measurement until now, may hold one key to better weather forecasts. For glider pilots, the ability to extend flights over greater distances is an extra benefit of the research.

Like something out of a James Bond movie, the motorglider takes off and climbs using its turbocharged engine, draws in its propeller, and becomes a high-performance glider. While gliding, the pilot can restart the engine, pop the propeller out, and resume powered flight. These features allow researchers to gather data from individual thermals and to travel between and above promising cloud structures in search of the waves. With the craft's 77-foot-wide wingspan and 1000-mile range, the team was able to explore thermal waves far from the glider's home base in Colorado. Researchers ventured to South Dakota and Nebraska, where they tracked thermals without interference from the mountain waves that form above the Rocky Mountains.

NCAR WEATHER GROUP MULTIPLIES ITS RAW COMPUTING POWER BY TEN—AT NO DIRECT COST TO NCAR

Boulder—A weather research group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research has just upped its computing power 10 times at no direct cost to NCAR through an innovative loan arrangement with Compaq Computer Corporation and iMSC Corporation, a computer consulting firm. On Wednesday, 28 October, NCAR celebrated the arrival of 42 new workstations and 7 high-end, multiprocessor AlphaServers worth $8.7 million from Compaq. The iMSC originated the loan with Digital Equipment Corporation, which was acquired recently by Compaq. NCAR's primary sponsor is the National Science Foundation.

NCAR's Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division (MMM) will use this increase in its raw computing power primarily to develop further the MM5 computer model, a pre-eminent weather research and forecast tool used around the world. The division expects to run the state-of-the-art model at a resolution not previously possible for simulating smaller-scale atmospheric features such as thunderstorms and other weather phenomena. According to MMM director Robert Gall, the new hardware will have a "huge" impact on the group's work on a vital data assimilation program, which will ultimately benefit the entire atmospheric science community. "We're all very excited," says Gall. "At a time when research dollars and computer allocations are harder to come by, an opportunity like this can have a tremendous beneficial impact on our work."

The iMSC teamed with six Colorado investors to form Advanced Research Alliance. The ARA purchased the hardware at a substantial discount from Compaq and then lent it to MMM. In exchange, MMM will test and evaluate the systems and provide input to iMSC and Compaq for reconfiguring and redesigning the systems for scientific applications. At specified times during the 3-year period, iMSC will upgrade the hardware (through steps such as chip replacements) and ARA will sell the used components. In 2001, ARA will sell the entire set of computers. This collaboration will result in a win–win–win situation for the three parties. The ARA will have profited from its sales, MMM will have made otherwise impossible scientific leaps through the use of the computers, and Compaq will have obtained exposure and proof-of-performance for its high-end product line. During the three years of the NCAR loan, iMSC will use a similar suite of Compaq machines to refine a version of MM5 that can be run by nonscientists on the Windows NT operating system. This version can be used by business and industry decision makers, government emergency managers, and even high school students. The AlphaServers, which have been on the market since 1991, are the chief products in Compaq's high-performance computing division. At its aggregate peak, the group of AlphaServers and Alpha workstations at NCAR could in theory deliver 118 gigaflops (118 billion floating-point operations per second). In practice, however, each of the single-processor workstations, which now have the same 600-MHZ chips as the multiprocessor servers, runs the MM5 code at approximately 200 megaflops.

SOCIETAL IMPACTS OF WEATHER DISASTERS TO FOCUS MORE ATTENTION ON WEATHER SERVICES

As weather impacts society more, increased attention is being focused on weather services. As our population and wealth grow with the approach of a new century, the effects of weather disasters will grow and become even more visible. That's the message from Roger A. Pielke, Jr. at a National Weather Service seminar at NWS Headquarters in Silver Spring, Maryland on 13 October. Pielke, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, showed graphic evidence of an upturn of insurance and other losses because of weather-related disasters. He explained that because more people are moving into areas where disasters such as hurricanes and tornadoes are likely to strike, the societal impacts of these natural disasters will become even more significant. "The future is bright for the weather services," he told the audience, where the importance of warnings are becoming more and more important to the lives and safety of people.

Pielke cited the floods in North Dakota, pointing out that while the weather service predicted the flood stage would be higher than ever before, it rose above what anyone expected resulting in flooding that completely inundated some of the cities and communities. The warning system in Grand Forks, he said, broke down. The weather service doesn't always provide all the information it has available. However, he emphasized that the weather service was put in a position of predicting risks. The weather service, he explained, wanted to convey that the flooding would be the most water the area had ever seen, which previously had been 48 feet. The weather service forecasted 49 feet, but the flood stage rose to 54 feet. There was a lot of blaming going on regarding the weather service's failure to warn of the higher flood stage. While there were signs reading "This disaster has been brought to you by the NWS, Corps of Engineers...," the weather service reported it had given its best effort.

The end-to-end forecast process, he said, is the relationship among prediction, communication, and choice of action. We do well with prediction and communication, he explained, but they are not too well integrated. Sometimes, he said, the results are "like an orchestra playing without a conductor." "We should develop multidisciplinary teams composed of meteorologists, social scientists, and others who must have access to decision makers." He added that no serious research on societal effects of disasters is currently taking place, in NOAA, NWS, or NSF.

SATELLITES AND SPACE

THE NOAA-15 REPLACES NOAA-12 WEATHER SATELLITE

TheNOAA-15, an environmental satellite launched on 13 May, has successfully completed its on-orbit tests and instrument calibration and will replace NOAA-12 in the constellation of weather satellites, according to NOAA officials.NOAA-15, a Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite, or POES, is the first in a series of five POES satellites with improved imaging and sounding capabilities that will operate over the next 12 years, officials explained. Like other NOAA satellites, NOAA-15 collects meteorological data and transmits the information to users around the world. The POES satellites orbit the earth from pole to pole. The satellite also carries search and rescue instruments that are used internationally in locating ships, aircraft, and people in distress. The satellites have been instrumental in saving about 9000 lives.

Currently, NOAA-14 and NOAA-15 are the two polar-orbiting satellites, and GOES-8 and GOES-10 are the two geostationary satellites. GOES-10, which was monitoring Hurricane Mitch, was commanded into a "safe hold" on 27 October when it experienced a problem with its ability to point toward Earth. The problem is thought to be an anomaly with either the satellite's Earth sensor or the attitude and orbit control electronics. In the meantime, GOES-10 took over the function of GOES-8 in monitoring the hurricane, until GOES-8 was back in operation 19 hours later. GOES-10 is positioned over the Pacific Ocean (135° W) but was able to get a good view of Mitch because of the storm's western location, according to NOAA officials. Because of the switchover, eastern and western users received data and images every 30 rather than every 15 minutes.

NOAA also operates satellites in the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). Operational control of NOAA-15 was turned over to NOAA from NASA on 7 July.

LIKE IT OR NOT, SPACE WEATHER ACTIVITIES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE INTENSE

As we move into the next solar cycle, NOAA space weather scientists are predicting space weather activities will increase and become more intense. That prediction was given by the NOAA scientists at a National Press Club press conference on 27 October. The conference served to launch a new space weather forecasting service that now will be issued using outlooks, bulletins, watches, and warnings, just like the National Weather Service uses with Earthly weather activities.

Jo Ann Jocelyn, space scientist, explained that we are now headed into a solar maximum around the year 2000. The event will be Solar Cycle 23, she said, and it is expected to have as much activity as Solar Cycle 22, which was one of the most active in history. A solar maximum period occurs about every 11 years. "We'll be watching the violent solar storms that occur in outer space, so we decided that it made sense to fit our alerts for the public and others affected by space weather into the NWS framework," said Dr. Ernie Hildner, director of NOAA's Space Environment Center (SEC) in Boulder, Colorado. He predicted the deleterious effects of space weather activities "will only get worse. The incidents of adverse effects will increase." He told reporters that they will be reporting on more and more impacts of solar activity on the earth's atmosphere.

He pointed out that as more communications and other systems improve in technology, they become more vulnerable to space weather, particularly because we place more reliance on them. Hildner explained that there are various activities, ranging from disruptions in power and communications to increased drag on satellites to radiation effects on astronauts, affected by the sun's activities. He said that fortunately we are improving our forecast capabilities, citing the assistance forecasters have found in real-time data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite which is upstream between the earth and the sun and provides warnings of solar activities before they reach the earth's atmosphere. Forecasts range from about eight minutes to days and weeks, depending on the solar activity involved, Hildner said. The SEC is the world center for space weather forecasting, he explained. However, he emphasized that the center has a lot of partners—NASA, the Air Force, NSF, and others, to name a few. They provide 1400 data streams a day, he said.

Gary Heckman, senior forecaster at SEC, pointed out that space weather has moved from an obscure science a few years ago to an activity of wide public interest. He displayed what he described as examples of Space Weather Advisories dealing with an expected geomagnetic storm, the observance of a solar flare, an energetic particle event, and explained that the advisories will improve to include data on aurora in the future.

He explained there will be five different types of messages issued as Space Weather Advisories: Space Weather Alerts, when a significant space weather event has been observed or is in progress; Space Weather Warnings, issued when a significant event is imminent or likely; Space Weather Watch, when a significant event is expected; Space Weather Bulletins, when conditions occur that are thought to be of interest to the public, and Space Weather Outlooks, issued weekly to provide general descriptions of current and future conditions and activity levels.

To subscribe to the advisory list, send an E-mail to: majordomo@sel.noaa.gov. Do not put anything in the Subject heading. In the body of your E-mail message, type: subscribe advisory and list your E-mail address.

TRIANA MISSION SELECTED

After a rigorous peer-review evaluation of nine competing proposals, NASA has selected a proposal from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California, to implement the Triana mission with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland.

Named for the sailor on Columbus' voyage who first saw the New World, Triana is a satellite mission to L1 (the Lagrange libration, or neutral gravity point between the earth and the sun). From L1, Triana will have a continuous, full disk, sunlit view of the earth. The mission will provide this view of the earth for distribution over the Internet at the beginning of the new millennium.

Dr. Francisco P.J. Valero of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, a part of the University of California at San Diego, has been selected the Principal Investigator to lead development of the Triana mission. Dr. Valero's mission concept includes two scientific instruments: the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC), to be built by Lockheed-Martin Advanced Technology Center of Palo Alto, California, and an advanced radiometer, from a source to be selected later this fall. Triana also will include a small, next-generation space weather monitoring instrument to contribute to our understanding of how solar events affect Earth-orbiting spacecraft, such as communications satellites.

"An advanced radiometer at L1 will provide, by looking at the whole sunlit side of the earth at once, the first direct measurements of the radiant power reflected by the planet, and thereby contribute to our knowledge of how much of the Sun's energy is absorbed in the Earth's atmosphere," said Dr. Valero. "The EPIC instrument will observe the earth's vegetation canopy structure and evolution by taking advantage of the retro-reflectance, or 'hot spot,' view that will be available by being in-line between the earth and the sun. The EPIC also will observe clouds and aerosols."

"The L1 vantage point, with its full-disk view of the earth, offers unique scientific advantages," said Dr. Ghassem Asrar, NASA's Associate Administrator for Earth Science. "The full-disk view of the Earth enables retrieval of global quantities at once, whereas measurements from low Earth orbit or geostationary Earth orbit must be 'stitched' together, requiring concerted efforts to 'process out' differences due to viewing times and revisit intervals." "L1 will be a prime vantage point for the next generation of Earth remote-sensing instruments. Triana will serve as a pathfinder for those future missions, providing scientific and operating experience in the L1 environment," said Asrar.

The Triana mission also will invite participation from the educational community. "We hope and expect to have widespread participation by students in every phase of this inspirational project. Students will benefit from 'hands-on' participation in Triana via the Internet and NASA's educational outreach efforts," Asrar said. NASA plans to solicit proposals for educational applications of Triana data next year.

Commercial participation also is possible for the Triana mission. Commercial enterprises have expressed an interest in contributing financially to Triana development in exchange for commercial rights to data. NASA will consider commercial partnerships for the Triana mission over the coming months.

NASA plans to proceed expeditiously on mission development. Goddard will provide a Small Explorer-lite spacecraft and ground system for Triana, as well as program integration and management support. Triana is a $75 million mission to be launched by December 2000 from the Space Shuttle cargo bay. Triana will be the latest in the Earth Probe series of missions in NASA's Earth Science enterprise, which seeks to understand the total Earth system and the effects of natural and human-induced changes on the global environment.

NWS AND AIR FORCE METEOROLOGISTS PLAY MAJOR ROLE IN SENATOR GLENN SPACE MISSION

The public's focus on any space shuttle mission always centers on the launch pad and crew. In the case of STS-95, everyone's attention and emotion was concentrated on Senator John Glenn, the retiring Ohio Democratic senator, the first American to orbit the earth, and the oldest to American to fly in space.

However, quietly behind the scenes, on of the most important segments of any launch rests on the shoulders of some highly trained and experienced meteorologists with the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Air Force Weather (AFWA). Without their assitance, from the days before a mission begins until it is complete, no launch would get off the ground. The tantalizing responsibility of providing NASA with the information necessary to make decisions about whether to launch or not, whether to deorbit or not, and whether to land in Florida, California, or New Mexico lies with specialists from those two weather services.

With the flight of Glenn and his six fellow astronauts, no serious weather forecast problems arose. Ed Prisalec, shuttle weather officer, at the Cape Canaveral Air Station, described the mission as "magnificent." Prisalec is with the 45th Weather Squadron and that organization holds primary responsibility for the launch phase of each mission.

The NWS forecasters are located at Johnson Space Center (JSC), Houston, Texas, and they hold responsibility for the landing phase. Frank Brody, chief of the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) there, explained that forecasters had only two concerns for the landing—crosswinds at the Florida landing site and low clouds offshore and to the south of the Cape that could have been below limits for the landing. "From the meteorology standpoint," Brody explained, "everything was pretty straightfoward. What we predicted two days before the landing was pretty much what happened." He explained that the low cloud layer near the landing site could have grown thicker and lower, but did not. The crosswinds were a real concern—going above limits at times and below limits at other times. However, they did not impact the landing and were within the limits when the shuttle touched down, he said.

There is much more to the weather operation than one might think, also. Prisalec pointed out that the forecasters at the Cape forecast for launches but also for conditions for the shuttle's movements from the Orbital Processing Facility (OPF) to the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) and from the VAB to the launch pad. Because lightning rain and other elements could effect the shuttle movement, the Air Force forecasters keep a close eye on conditions at those times.

Prisalec, who participated in his 60th launch with the Glenn flight, pointed out that the huge transporter that moves the shuttle from place to place had traveled more than 1000 miles since the shuttle program began.

The SMG forecasters provide advice to NASA's flight director, flight control team, and mission management team at JSC, as well as launch day forecasts for return-to-launch site (RTLS) landings at Kennedy Space Center, transoceanic abort landings (TAL) in Spain, Morocco, and the Gambia, abort-once-around (AOA) landings and first-day landings at Kennedy, White Sands, New Mexico, or Edwards AFB, California.

ENVIRONMENTAL NEWS

NORTH AMERICAN LAND MASS SOAKING UP CARBON DIOXIDE

A study by government and university scientists indicates that the land mass in North America is absorbing a large amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. During the past decade, evidence had already suggested the existence of a large land "sink " of atmospheric carbon dioxide at temperate latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that is closely associated with global warming. The term "sink" refers to areas where greenhouse gases are absorbed either by land or ocean processes.

In an article appearing in the 16 October issue of Science magazine, scientists from the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton University, and Columbia University say that they have now, tentatively, identified that "sink" as being mostly North America, at least during the period studied, from 1988–92.

Pieter Tans, an atmospheric chemist at NOAA's Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado and a coauthor of the paper, says that "the North American land surface appears to be absorbing possibly as much as between one and two billion tons of carbon annually, or a sizable fraction of global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning."

The data used in the study were obtained from 63 atmospheric sampling stations taken from the GLOBALVIEW database. GLOBALVIEW includes stations from NOAA's Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, and 12 other laboratories located around the world. The ocean and atmospheric models used were developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory located at Princeton University, and the air–sea fluxes were developed at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. The study was funded by NOAA's Office of Global Programs.

According to the Science article, the researchers developed a three-dimensional grid of the earth to model the flow of carbon dioxide. The expectation was that carbon dioxide would increase over North America as the winds moved from west to east, due to the large amounts of carbon dioxide produced by fossil fuel burning. Instead, carbon dioxide tended to decline slightly in crossing North America from the Pacific to the Atlantic oceans during the period of the study.

The researchers are not sure what is causing this decline of carbon dioxide. But they theorize that it is partly due to the regrowth of plants and vegetation on abandoned farmland and previously logged forests in North America and may be enhanced by human-induced nitrogen deposition, a diluted form of acid rain, and increasing CO2 levels, which can act as fertilizers for plants. However, the actual cause remains unknown. The researchers do believe that plants and soils are a major factor in CO2 absorption and will continue to exert considerable influence on atmospheric carbon dioxide in the future.

Tans emphasizes that even when researchers can account for most of the carbon dioxide that has been emitted globally, the future remains uncertain. "The current uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems is helping to slow down the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere, but we need to know why it is happening. Only then may we be able to project for how long into the future this process may continue."

Jerry Mahlman, director of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and a coauthor of the paper, said that while the North American sink may prove important in worldwide management of atmospheric carbon absorption, its value will come at a global level, not a regional one.

Excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere/ocean system lasts more than a hundred generations. Carbon dioxide is the most important of the greenhouse gases produced by human activities. Because it is closely associated with global warming, how carbon is distributed throughout the world and how it is absorbed or released is of major significance. "This finding will assist us in better understanding the global fate of carbon dioxide," said Tans.

In addition to Tans and Mahlman, the article in Science was coauthored by Song-Miao Fan, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program; Emanuel Gloor, Ecology, and Evolutionary Biology; Stephen Pacala, Carbon Modeling Consortium; and Jorge Sarmiento, professor of Geosciences, all from Princeton University; and Taro Takahaski, from Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

NASA HELPS "HOT" CITIES COOL DOWN

Environmental planning for the 2002 Olympic games, strategies to reduce ozone levels, focused tree-planting programs and identification of cool roofs are early spinoffs from a NASA urban study just concluding in three U.S. cities.

Researchers from NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama, flew a thermal camera mounted on a NASA aircraft over Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Sacramento, California; and Salt Lake City, Utah. The thermal camera took each city's temperature and produced an image that pinpoints the cities' "hot spots." The researchers are using the images to study which city surfaces contribute to bubble-like accumulations of hot air, called urban heat islands. The bubbles of hot air develop over cities as naturally vegetated surfaces are replaced with asphalt, concrete, rooftops, and other man-made materials. "One thing's for sure, the three cities we've looked at were hot," said the study's lead investigator, Dr. Jeff Luvall, of Marshall's Global Hydrology and Climate Center. "They can use a lot of trees and reflective rooftops."

Salt Lake City is using the early results to help plan sites for the 2002 Olympic Games and develop strategies to reduce ground-level ozone concentrations in the Salt Lake City valley. Though at high altitudes ozone protects the earth from ultraviolet rays, at ground level it is a powerful and dangerous respiratory irritant found in cities during the summer's hottest months.

In Sacramento and Baton Rouge, city planners and tree-planting organizations are using the study to focus their tree-planting programs. "We are helping the cities incorporate the study into their urban planning," said Maury Estes, an urban planner on the science team at Marshall. "By choosing strategic areas in which to plant trees and by encouraging the use of light-colored, reflective building material, we think that the cities can be cooled."

The science team will continue to analyze the thermal heat information and work with the cities to incorporate future results into the cities' plans. The team plans to disseminate its findings nationally so other cities can incorporate what the team has learned into their long-range growth plans.

NASA SELECTS REGIONAL EARTH SCIENCE APPLICATIONS CENTERS

NASA's Office of Earth Science has selected nine public/private consortia throughout the U. S. to form seven Regional Earth Science Applications Centers (RESACs). The RESAC program will use NASA's Earth science results, technologies and data products to help resolve issues with regional economic and policy significance and to support regional assessments supporting the U.S. Global Change Research Program.

The centers selected will be comprised of "end-to-end" consortia (from user needs definition to product delivery) and will include members from the research community, private industry, public agencies, and other potential information users in the public and private sectors. The selected consortia involve over 20 private companies, about 10 state and local government agencies, 20 federal agency regional offices, and 15 universities.

The RESACs will apply state-of-the-art NASA Earth science research results to such diverse areas as precision farm management; monitoring of forest growth and health; regional water resources and hydrology; assessment of the impact of long-term climate variability and change; land cover and land use mapping; agricultural crop disease and infestation detection; management of fire hazards; watershed and coastal management; environmental monitoring; and primary and secondary science education. For example, one RESAC will address water management problems in the arid southwestern U.S. Using hydrologic models derived from NASA-sponsored research, the RESAC will use spaceborne and airborne instruments to provide improved information on water resource availability. This information will assist planners in developing strategies for resource allocation among competing economic and environmental uses in a rapidly evolving global economy.

"Regional-scale problems are well-suited to NASA's Earth science data and technology; no other system of observation is available for analyzing such large-scale issues," said Dr. Ghassem Asrar, associate administrator for Earth Science, NASA Headquarters, Washington, D.C. "This program will capitalize on the science and technology developed over the past decade by NASA's Earth science enterprise to provide solutions to practical and societal problems that exist today and help in mitigating them in the future."

"The selection of the RESACs is the first of a number of planned NASA initiatives to develop new methods for bringing together the research, service and user communities to apply NASA's research results to practical, near-term problems," added Alex Tuyahov, Manager, Earth Science Applications Research Program, NASA Headquarters.

The selected consortia are:

Northern Great Plains RESAC, led by George A. Seielstad of the University of North Dakota

Northeast Applications of Useable Technology In Land Planning for Urban Sprawl RESAC, led by Chester Arnold of the University of Connecticut

NASA Southwest Earth Science Applications Center, led by Roger C. Bales of the University of Arizona

Upper Great Lakes RESAC, led by Marvin E. Bauer of the University of Minnesota, St. Paul

Midwest Center for Natural Resource Management, led by George R. Diak of the University of Wisconsin, Madison

Wildlands Fire Hazard Center, led by Christopher Lee of the California State University, Dominguez Hills

Great Plains RESAC, led by Edward A. Martinko of the University of Kansas

California Water Resources Research and Applications Center, led by Norman L. Miller of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Mid-Atlantic RESAC Consortium, led by Stephen D. Prince of the University of Maryland, College Park

NASA is investing approximately $14 million in these seven new RESACs in FY99. The three-year grants will take advantage of NASA's extensive Earth Science program, a long-term effort to study human-induced and natural changes in the whole Earth system.