Editor: Jim Elliott
Contributor:Stephanie Kenitzer
Copy Editor: Marcie Bernstein
House Approves Multiyear Authorization Bill for NASA
Senate Move to Double NSF Funding Still Seeking Support
University Officials Call for Support of Administration’s Department of Energy Science Request
Commercial Weather Services Association Launches New Web Site
Summer 2000 Was 11th-Warmest since Records Began in 1895
NCAR “Auto-Nowcaster” Used during Sydney Olympics
NOAA Scientists Focus on Another Pattern in World’s Climate
Largest-Ever Ozone Hole Observed over Antarctica
Ozone Layer Recovery May Take 15–45 Years, Scientists Predict
NOAA Launches Argo Ocean Profiling Network
As Nation Remembers Deadliest Storm, Poll Finds Public Still Unprepared
Surface Wind Measurements Aiding Hurricane Forecasters
Oak Ridge Boys’ Singer Records NOAA Weather Radio Announcements
NOAA’s Climate Internet Site Gets an Overhaul
Global CO2 Emissions in 1997 Were Highest Ever, according to CDIAC
NOAA-16 Reaches Orbit Successfully
Satellite Imagery Pinpoints El Niño’s Disruption of Marine Ecosystem
Dr. John Spengler, AMS Councilor and Fellow, Honored by Royal Society for the Promotion of Health
John L. Hayes, AMS Councilor, Heads National Weather Service Office of Meteorology
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The findings and recommendations of The Weather Channel Forum on Hurricane Preparedness and Response, developed by the Atmospheric Policy Program of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), suggest that our nation is at serious risk of severe damage and loss of life caused by hurricanes. The forum report, released on 13 September, calls for an assessment of the vulnerability of communities with potential exposure to hurricanes and the development of improvements in the preparedness, prediction, communications, and response strategies at the national, regional, and local levels.
The report is the result of this two-day forum of more than 100 of the nation’s top hurricane forecasters, emergency managers, public policy officials, media representatives, and research scientists. The experts discussed policy changes that are needed to significantly improve the weather services, media communications, and emergency management decisions involved in the national, regional, and local hurricane preparedness and response strategies.
"It is just a matter of time before a major hurricane strikes a vulnerable area causing tremendous damage and taking many lives. Our current systems for forecasting these major storms, getting the word to those in harm's way, and getting them out of danger is inadequate to handle such a disaster," said Richard Greenfield, director of the AMS Atmospheric Policy Program. "Implementing the forum’s recommendations would lead to changes that will save lives, property and dollars.”
The principal findings from the forum are the following:
Major recommendations from the forum are the following:
The complete report is available at http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS.
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The budget numbers and status of appropriations bills are currently in the midst of change. Most federal agencies are operating under a continuing resolution, which will fund them through the first week of October. As of this writing, several appropriations bills are at the House and Senate conference process, some are about to be sent to conference committees, and others are still on the Senate or House floors for approval. Further details on specific bills and budgets will be posted as available.
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The House of Representatives has approved a conference report for H.R. 1654, the NASA Authorization Act of 2000. By a 399–17 margin, the legislators authorized $13.6 billion for this fiscal year, $14.2 billion in FY01, and $14.6 billion for FY02.
The President had requested $14.0 billion for FY01 and $14.4 billion for FY02.
“Overall, we’re recommending a 1% increase over the president’s request for NASA funding in fiscal years 2001 and 2002, principally in the areas of science, aeronautics, and technology,” said House Science Committee Chairman F. James Sensenbrenner Jr. (R-WI). “These critical investments will continue developing our knowledge in areas ranging from the growth of cancer cells to the El Niño weather effect on earth and the nature of black holes deep in our universe.”
Summaries of the authorization follow.
| FY01 | |||
| Activity | President's request | H.R. 1654 | Difference |
| Human space flight | $5,499.9 | $5,499.99 | $0 |
| Science, aeronautics, and technology | $5,929.4 | $6,078.5 | 2.5% |
| Mission support | $2,584.0 | $2,584.0 | $0 |
| Inspector general | $22.0 | $22.0 | $0 |
| Total | $14,035.3 | $14,184.4 | $149,100 (1.1%) |
| FY02 | |||
| Activity | President's request | H.R. 1654 | Difference |
| Human space flight | $5,387.6 | $5,387.6 | $0 |
| Science, aeronautics,and technology | $6,388.9 | $6,548.9 | 2.5% |
| Mission support | $2,666.2 | $2,666.2 | $0 |
| Inspector general | $ 22.7 | $22.7 | $0 |
| Total | $14,465.4 | $14,625.4 | $160,000 (1.1%) |
Some highlights of the bill include that it
Full funding figures are available at http://www.house.gov/science/106thpress/106-155.htm.
The legislation is expected to pass the Senate and be signed by President Clinton in the next few weeks. H.R. 1654 would mark the first NASA authorization signed into law in eight years.
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Senators Christopher “Kit” Bond (R-MO) and Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) are still looking for additional support from their colleagues to double the NSF budget over the next 5 years.
The two senators have the signatures of 38 senators on a letter to Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MI) and Democratic Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD), according to the 20 September American Institute of Physics (AIP) Bulletin of Science Policy News.
The consensus is that support of more senators is needed to ensure both a good appropriation for FY01 and to demonstrate a commitment to this 5-year undertaking, according to the AIP.
In the letter, Bond and Mikulski wrote, “We are writing as longtime supporters of investments in fundamental research and education, the building blocks of the new economy. Just as we have worked collectively to double the National Institutes of Health (NIH) budget over five years, we believe it is now time to launch a parallel effort to double the budget of the National Science Foundation (NSF) over five years. It is our feeling that the success of NIH’s efforts to cure deadly diseases such as cancer depends on the underpinning research supported by NSF.
“For all these reasons, we hope you will join us in adopting a five-year goal of doubling the National Science Foundation by fiscal year 2006.”
The following 38 senators signed the letter: Alaska, Ted Stevens (R); California, Barbara Boxer (D) and Dianne Feinstein (D); Colorado, Wayne Allard (R); Connecticut, Christopher Dodd (D) and Joseph Lieberman (D); Florida, Connie Mack (R); Georgia, Max Cleland (D) and Zell Miller (D); Hawaii, Daniel K. Akaka (D); Illinois, Richard J. Durbin (D); Indiana, Evan Bayh (D); Louisiana, Mary L. Landrieu (D); Maryland, Paul Sarbanes (D) and Barbara Mikulski (D); Massachusetts, Edward M. Kennedy (F) and John F. Kerry (D); Michigan, Spencer Abraham (R) and Carl Levin (D); Minnesota, Ron Grams (R) and Paul David Wellstone (D); Missouri, John Ashcroft (R) and Christopher "Kit" Bond; New Mexico, Jeff Bingaman (D); New York, Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D) and Charles D. Schumer (D); North Carolina, John Edwards (D); North Dakota, Byron L. Dorgan (D); Rhode Island, Jack Reed (D); South Carolina, Strom Thurmond (R); South Dakota, Tim Johnson (D); Tennessee, Bill Frist (R) and Fred Thompson (R); Vermont, James M. Jeffords (R) and Patrick J. Leahy (D); Virginia, Charles S. Robb (D); Washington, Patty Murray (D); and Wisconsin, Herbert H. Kohl (D).
Additionally, another letter was sent to Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Ted Stevens (R-AK) and Ranking Minority Member Robert Byrd (D-WV) stating: “Senators Bond and Mikulski have just announced their intention to double NSF in five years. This is a laudable goal, and we urge your support for NSF funding at levels sufficient to achieve this goal.”
Spencer Abraham (R-MI), Trent Lott (R-MI), James Imhofe (R-OK), and Robert F. Bennett (R-UT) signed the letter.
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Thirty-seven university presidents and chancellors have sent a letter to key members of the House and Senate calling for support of the President’s funding request for the Department of Energy’s Office of Science.
The letter cites a decline of 13% in constant dollars for the office in the last 10 years and supports funding at least at the administration’s request in full.
In part, the letter reads:
“...If funding for the DOE’s Office of Science is not increased above the levels currently contained in the House and Senate bills, we believe that some of this country’s most fundamental and exciting scientific research, much of which occurs at our universities, will be slowed.
“...Each year over 15,000 researchers, more than half of them from universities, rely on DOE user facilities and university-based laboratories for their research. The department also supports more than 6,000 graduate students and postdoctoral fellows. It is these major and university-based facilities, researchers and students that have made the DOE a leader in human genome research, high performance computing and simulation, nanotechnology, basic energy science and materials research.
“...We would specifically ask that at least $3.16 billion, the level contained in the President’s FY 2001 budget request, be provided for the Office of Science. In our opinion, growth in funding for DOE’s unique facilities and the university laboratories and research teams must be sustained, not only to advance the physical sciences, but to push the frontiers of scientific knowledge in other important fields as well.”
Signing the letter were John Westling, president, Boston University; David Baltimore, president, California Institute of Technology; Don M. Randel, president, University of Chicago; George Rupp, president, Columbia University; Nannerl O. Keohane, president, Duke University; Talbert D’Alemberte, president, The Florida State University; Neil L. Rudenstine, president, Harvard University; Lewis M. Collins, president, Illinois Institute of Technology; Charles M. Vest, president, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Peter McPherson, president, Michigan State University; Curtis J. Tompkins, president, Michigan Technological University; Mary Anne Fox, chancellor, North Carolina State University; Graham B. Spanier, president, The Pennsylvania State University; Harold T. Shapiro, president, Princeton University; Martin C. Jischke, president, Purdue University; William Kirwan, president, The Ohio State University; and James E. Halligan, president, Oklahoma State University.
Also, Paul G. Risser, president, Oregon State University; Malcolm Gillis, president, Rice University; Francis Lawrence, president, Rutgers—The State University of New Jersey; John L. Hennessy, president, Stanford University; Shirley Strum Kenny, president, State University of New York at Stony Brook; Kenneth A. Shaw, chancellor, Syracuse University; Ray M. Bowen, president, Texas A&M University; Frank Franz, president, University of Alabama in Huntsville; John A. White, chancellor, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville; Richard C. Atkinson, president, University of California; Robert A. Hoover, president, University of Idaho; James Stukel, president, University of Illinois; C.D. Mote Jr., president, University of Maryland; Lee C. Bollinger, president, University of Michigan; Carol C. Harter, president, University of Nevada, Las Vegas; James C. Moeser, chancellor, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; J. Wade Gilley, president, University of Tennessee; Larry R. Faulkner, president, University of Texas System; David Ward, chancellor, University of Wisconsin—Madison; and Richard C. Levin, president, Yale University.
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The Commercial Weather Services Association (CWSA), the trade organization for the commercial weather industry, launched a new Web site on 13 September. The new site is http://www.weatherindustry.org . Redesigning the Web site was the most recent in a series of changes the organization has experienced in the last few months.
Earlier this year, there was a reorganization, which brought in new leadership and redefined the goals of the organization. While continuing to monitor the legislative activities on Capitol Hill for the entire weather industry, there is also renewed emphasis on providing services to members and working more proactively with industry partners including the public sector.
“CWSA is committed to serving its corporate members by advancing the weather industry in becoming a more powerful player in the economy of the twenty-first century,” said Maria Pirone, CWSA board member and director of Global Data at WSI Corporation.
Using the latest technology to reach members, there is instantaneous desktop notification of updates to the Web site. The site contains information pertaining to facts about the industry, current news events, and new member benefits for the general public with a special “members only” section for dues paying members. Members have access to a calendar of upcoming events, board meeting minutes, various committee reports, and updates on conferences and meetings attended by CWSA representatives. With the increased flow of information to members, the organization hopes to become a more valuable tool in the long-range planning and growth of its members.
CWSA is the largest trade organization for commercial weather businesses in the world. The organization’s members represent a variety of weather-related suppliers providing services to nearly every market imaginable including broadcast and print media, aviation, government, transportation, energy, agriculture, marine, and consumers.
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Aviation adventurer Steve Fossett broke two more aviation records on 17 September 2000 with the help of weather information and planning provided by Sailing Weather Services meteorologist Chris Bedford.
Flying his Cessna Citation X twin-engine jet from Jacksonville, Florida, to San Diego, California, in 3 hours, 29 minutes, 5 seconds—at an average speed of 593.01 mph (954.35 kph)—Fossett set a new U.S. transcontinental (east to west) record for a private aircraft. The new record bettered the previous fastest crossing set by a Gulfstream G-V by 58 mph (93 kph). In addition, Fossett broke the airline record set by a Boeing 707 back in 1962. Flying with Fossett was his regular copilot Darrin Adkins.
Fossett's flight also set a U.S. transcontinental round-trip record (coast to coast to coast) of 7 hours, 41 minutes, 15 seconds—an average speed of 537.62 mph (865.21 kph)—including a 45-minute fuel stop in Jacksonville, Florida. (Transcontinental Records are stated in average speed regardless of coastal cities chosen.)
Bedford provided Fossett with prediction of when and where record-breaking conditions would occur. Bedford monitored dozens of potential routes for appropriate wind and temperature conditions. Altitudes of interest ranged between 35 000 and 47 000 ft. Positioning the aircraft appropriately for the record attempt, while minimizing operational expenses, are critical concerns. Additional consideration was given to phenomena, as thunderstorms and clear-air turbulence, that may require deviations from the planned route.
Using proprietary techniques, Sailing Weather Services developed a custom-forecasting tool allowing quick identification of routes likely to produce favorable wind conditions for attempting aviation records with lead times up to 10 days. Forecasts are refined prior to the start of the record attempt, developing the optimum route to be flown and providing the best possible guidance for breaking the existing record.
Bedford previously assisted Fossett with the U.S. transcontinental west to east private aircraft record in April 2000 and the around the world record for medium-weight aircraft in February 2000.
Located in Watertown, Massachusetts, Sailing Weather Services provides weather support for competitive sailors and worldwide adventurers. Chief Meteorologist Chris Bedford is an AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist and graduate of the University of Michigan’s Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences program. Bedford has over 15 years experience applying meteorology to special projects such as the America’s Cup yacht race, global sailing challenges, aviation records, and automobile racing.
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This year’s summer, June–August, registered a national average temperature of 73.2°F (1.1°F warmer than average) making it the 11th-warmest summer since records began in 1895.
The figures, calculated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina, showed that conditions in the northeast and midwest generally were cooler and wetter than normal, while in the Deep South and the western United States warmer and drier than normal conditions continued to prevail.
While it was the 18th-coolest summer since 1895 for the northeast region, it was the second warmest summer on record for the Southwest region and the 10th-warmest June–August period for the West region.
National Weather Service Director John Kelly Jr. described the summer as “interesting—one of transition,” with record-setting weather events marked by wildfire activity resulting in nearly 7 million acres of forestland being destroyed, and a decrease in the number of tornadoes—half as many as usual. As of the end of August, he explained, 782 tornadoes had been reported, the lowest total since 1989.
At the same time, he said, thunderstorm activity in the geographic triangle encompassing Chicago, Boston, and Washington, D.C. had increased by 160%, a factor that has caused problems for the airline industry because of weather-generated delays and cancellations of scheduled flights.
Tom Peterson, chief of the Scientific Services Division at the Climatic Data Center, said, “If we look at the year-to-date, January–August period, we find that the U.S. temperature is at record levels, though only slightly above the 1934 value. This is the 17th time the January–August period for the United States was above average in the last 20 years.”
On a statewide basis, Utah and Nevada recorded the 2d- and 3d-warmest summers on record, respectively. In all, 20 states were warmer than normal, while 14 states were cooler than normal. Although precipitation was adequate in most of the northeast, Ohio valley, and western Great Lakes states, below-normal rainfall and hot conditions contributed to drought conditions in portions of the West, South, and southeast.
June–August was the 13th-driest such 3-month period on record for both the southeast and northwest regions. Abundant rainfall during June prevented the 3-month summer season from being much drier for the South region, which includes Louisiana and Texas. It was the 5th-driest summer on record for Alabama, the 6th-driest for Florida, and the 7th-driest summer since 1895 for Mississippi. For the nation, it was the 24th-driest summer on record.
Other highlights include the following.
Currently, half of the nation is experiencing conditions ranging from extreme dryness to severe drought, and several areas—including southwest Montana; southeast and south-central Louisiana; and parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska—have experienced the driest conditions in their histories.
By the end of August, the long-term Palmer Drought Index showed 35% of the country in severe to extreme drought, the greatest coverage since the drought of 1988. In Texas, cumulative rainfall of only about 1 inch made this the driest July–August by far in the 106-year period of record keeping. In the Deep South (including Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi), September 1999–August 2000 was the driest such period on record.
In Montana, the past 12 months have seen the warmest September–August ever and the 11th-driest. Most of the state has recorded the worst drought since 1988. In the southwest portion of the state, the site of numerous wildfires, the Palmer index reached -7 for the first time ever. This reading is quite literally “off the scale,” scientists said, as -4 is considered “extreme drought,” and no labels are available for anything below this number.
The northeast has experienced an unusually cold, wet summer. Much of the northeast from New England south through southern New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey has above-average soil moisture, while parts of Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and West Virginia are slightly wetter than normal. This has increased water supply for large segments of the region, with the northeast New Jersey reservoir system at about 94% of capacity and the New York City reservoir system at 96% of capacity.
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While athletes from around the world competed for the gold in this year’s summer Olympic Games in Sydney, Australia, an elite set of automated forecast tools was used to assist forecasters in their predictions of weather at the various venues.
Forecasters used software furnished by Australia, Canada, Great Britain, and the United States to help provide automated short-term forecasts for the events. One of the tools is an “Auto-nowcaster” developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, and installed in Sydney last year. The system uses 30 different computational procedures to predict the birth, growth, and decay of thunderstorms. Outlooks were produced and issued every 5 minutes for periods up to an hour.
The Olympics forecasts are part of a broader exercise running from 2 September to 21 November to see how much of a boost the automated tools can provide to forecasters. After November, an international certification team will assess whether the automated systems actually improved the Sydney forecasts.
During the Olympics, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology issued the official Olympic forecasts by mixing and matching output from NCAR’s Auto-nowcaster and the four other automated systems and then applying their own insight. Their outlooks were distributed to emergency managers, flight controllers at Sydney airport, venue managers at the Olympic sites, and personnel in charge of the Sydney Harbor Bridge Climb, a tourist attraction.
By tracking convergence lines (gust fronts, sea breezes, and other zones where air masses collide), the Auto-nowcaster anticipates where the next storm might form. The nowcaster is automated because often there is too much going on at once for a person to monitor every possible interaction in short-term forecasts, officials explained.
The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) plans to bring Auto-nowcaster concepts into severe-storm and flash-flood warnings once the agency has sufficient computing power to accommodate the package. Auto-nowcaster is currently being run in a test mode at the National Weather Service’s Sterling, Virginia, Forecast Office. In November, a workshop in Sydney sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Research Programme will provide developing countries a chance to obtain firsthand experience with the advanced systems.
The other automated systems operating during the Sydney games were developed by NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory; Environment Canada; the U.K. Met. Office; and the University of Salford, United Kingdom.
The system drew on data from 2 Doppler radars, 3 wind profilers, about 20 weather stations, and 4 daily radiosonde launches from Sydney Airport and satellite data.
The Federal Aviation Administration, the NWS, the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Army, and the U.S. Weather Research Program funded the Auto-nowcaster.
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NOAA scientists and their colleagues are looking at another pattern in the world’s climate, this one focused in the North Atlantic and lasting about 7 decades.
In an article in the September issue of the journal Climate Dynamics, scientists at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Princeton, New Jersey, and at the University of Virginia explain their work trying to simulate observed changes in the sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.
“The results from our computer models agree with what can be seen in the observed climate system,” said Thomas Delworth, a GFDL meteorologist. “There appears to be a distinct temperature swing that lasts about 70 years. What we still need to look at is how this affects the ocean–atmosphere relationship and ultimately our climate and its future changes.”
Instrument data have existed for only the last 150 years and thus are of limited value for studying climate changes on the multidecadal to centennial timescale, according to the scientists. To overcome this limitation, scientists use proxy records, such as ice cores, tree rings, and coral growth, to look for deviations in temperature records over longer timescales.
Delworth and colleague Michael Mann of the University of Virginia, Charlottesville, used proxy records of temperature changes over the last 330 years. What they found was a distinct oscillation or swing in temperature around the North Atlantic Ocean that lasts about 70 years.
Delworth said this information adds another level of understanding about how our climate works and will help in long-range climate forecasting.
“We are also looking at the effect such events may have on the circulation of the oceans,” Delworth reported. “Changes in ocean circulation can have a substantial impact on climate by altering how much heat is moved from the warm tropical regions to colder higher latitudes. We also need to look at what effects, if any, this may have on other climate patterns, such as the frequency of hurricanes.
“If you think of climate as a puzzle with many pieces making up the whole, what we have found is another important piece of that puzzle.”
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An Antarctic ozone hole 3 times larger than the entire land mass of the United States—the largest such area ever observed—has been detected by scientists studying the area. See related story on ozone layer recovery: Ozone Layer Recovery May Take 15–45 Years, Scientists Predict .
The “hole” (or what scientists call an “ozone depletion area”) expanded to a record size of approximately 11 million square miles (28.3 million square kilometers) on 23 September 2000. The previous record was approximately 10.5 million square miles (27.2 million square kilometers), recorded on 19 September 1998.
The lowest readings in the ozone hole typically are observed in late September or early October each year.
“These observations reinforce concerns about the frailty of earth’s ozone layer,” said Dr. Michael J. Kurylo, manager of the Upper Atmosphere Research Program for NASA. “Although production of ozone-destroying gases has been curtailed under international agreements, concentrations of the gases in the stratosphere are only now reaching their peak. Due to their long persistence in the atmosphere, it will be many decades before the ozone hole is no longer an annual occurrence.”
Scientists investigating the enormous hole are somewhat surprised by its size. The reason behind the dimensions involve both early-spring conditions and an extremely intense Antarctic vortex, an upper-altitude air current that sweeps around the Antarctic continent, confining the Antarctic ozone hole.
“Variations in the size of the ozone hole and of ozone depletion accompanying it from one year to the next are not unexpected,” explained Dr. Jack Kaye, Office of Earth Sciences Research Director at NASA. “At this point, we can only wait to see how the ozone hole will evolve in the coming few months and see how the year’s hole compares in all respects to those of previous years.”
The measurements released by NASA were obtained using the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aboard NASA’s Earth Probe satellite.
TOMS ozone data and pictures are available at http://jwocky.gsfc.nasa.gov/TOMSmain.html .
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While scientists admit that ozone-depleting substances are beginning to decrease in the atmosphere, they say they do not expect recovery for 15–45 years, and then with a few “ifs.” See related story on this year’s ozone hole: Largest-Ever Ozone Hole Observed over Antarctica.
The estimate is contained in the 16 September issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research, which reports it will be several decades before an increase in the amount of total overhead ozone (called “total column ozone”) will be detectable.
Elizabeth C. Weatherhead, a University of Colorado scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Air Resources Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, and colleagues analyzed data from a NASA two-dimensional chemical model, along with predictions from 9 other chemical models used in the World Meteorological Organization’s 1998 ozone assessment, to estimate the time required to detect predicted trends of ozone recovery in different areas of the world.
Results indicate that recovery is likely to show up earliest in the Southern Hemisphere near New Zealand, southern Africa, and southern South America.
“We should expect to be able to detect recovery in most regions of the world within the next 15 to 45 years,” Weatherhead noted. “That’s based on full compliance with the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and no other complicating factors such as major volcanic eruptions or enhanced stratospheric cooling.”
Although there are other ways to detect signs of ozone recovery—for example, recovery of the ozone layer at a particular altitude above the earth—total column measurements provide a complete picture of how much ozone is present over a region. The total column ozone amount represents the number of ozone molecules in an imaginary tube 1 centimeter on a side stretching upward from the surface to the top of the atmosphere. Most of this ozone is located high in the atmosphere, between 20 and 30 kilometers (12 to 18 miles). The ozone in this layer absorbs ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun.
Weatherhead indicates that detection of not just a decrease in ozone depleting substances but a recovery in total column ozone amounts is crucial. “Statistical detection of ozone layer recovery will be an important step toward verification that all relevant processes in ozone destruction have been identified and that appropriate measures have been taken to assure the ozone layer’s health,” she explained. “We can’t really expect much of an improvement in the UV levels reaching the biosphere until we can detect an increase in total column ozone.”
The work was cosponsored by the Department of Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and builds on measurements and work from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and its scientists.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) launched several ocean probes last month, part of a worldwide network to help forecasters and scientists better understand and predict the world’s climate.
At a press conference at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., 19 September, Secretary of Commerce Norman Mineta, NOAA administrator D. James Baker, and Congressmen Curt Weldon (R-PA) and Sam Farr (D-CA) announced that the first 6 floats of an eventual system of 3000 currently were being deployed in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Central America. Another 8 devices will be deployed in November in the Atlantic.
The system, known as Argo, is an international cooperative program involving 10 nations, of which the United States is the primary player. The number of floats already funded by the alliance totals 417, and 2069 more are proposed over the next 3 years.
The floats are being launched by plane or ship and will be spaced about 186 miles (200 kilometers) apart. When deployed, each float will sink to a typical depth of 2000 meters (slightly more than a mile). After drifting with the current for 10 days, it will rise to the surface, measuring the temperature and salinity of the layers through which it rises. On the surface, it will radio its data and position to an orbiting satellite before returning to depth and continuing another cycle.
The satellites will relay the data they receive from the floats to land-based receiving stations and, from there, the data will be distributed to science teams around the world. The teams then will make the information available to operational forecast centers and other scientists in near–real time via the Global Telecommunications System.
The profiling network will enhance NOAA’s already extensive ocean-observing system. Secretary Mineta praised Congress for its support of the program and said that President Clinton has requested $28 million for climate research in the current budget cycle.
Baker called the occasion a “historic moment,” comparing the significance of the launching of the system to 60 years ago when radiosondes were first introduced to make measurements of the atmosphere.
The U.S. floats will be joined by floats from Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Australia, the European Community, India, and New Zealand. Also, South Korea and Spain have expressed interest in joining the program.
NOAA and the Office of Naval Research, through the National Oceanographic Partnership Program, funded the U.S. contribution. The program is being implemented by NOAA, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the University of Washington, and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. It builds on more than a decade of investment in the development of float technology on the part of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment as funded by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research.
The project was named Argo to complement the Jason-1 satellite, a joint project of NASA and France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales, planned for launch next year. Argo was the ship of the mythological Greek hero, Jason.
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As residents of Galveston, Texas, gathered to commemorate the 100-year anniversary of the nation’s deadliest storm last month, a national poll released by the American Red Cross revealed that half of those living in hurricane-prone areas are concerned about their safety in the event of a hurricane or flood. However, only 41% of those polled have an evacuation plan, few have informed their children or considered the family pet, and only 30% have assembled a disaster supplies kit.
One hundred years ago on 8 September, the great Galveston hurricane roared through that island city with winds in excess of 130 miles an hour and a 15-foot storm surge. When the storm subsided, at least 3500 homes and buildings had been destroyed and more than 8000 people had been killed. Damage was estimated at $7 million—the equivalent today of more than $700 million. The number of people who lost their lives on that single day represents more than the combined fatalities resulting from the 325 tropical storms and hurricanes that have struck the United States since then..
The American Red Cross commissioned the public opinion poll to better understand the level of hurricane preparedness in the 17.3 million households located in 177 counties along the seacoast from Maine to Texas. The poll was conducted over the Labor Day weekend by Harris Interactive, sponsors of the Harris Poll.
Key findings include the following:
The storm hit Galveston just 3 months after the Red Cross received its official charter by the U.S. government. Clara Barton, aged 78, and her staff of six relief workers arrived on the scene on 15 September to begin a nearly 2-month relief operation.
A 17-foot-high sea wall has since been constructed along 10 miles of oceanfront to protect Galveston, and forecasting, with all of the new technology available to the NWS, has improved significantly. However, the danger remains.
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U.S. hurricane forecasters, with the help of an instrument on NASA’s polar-orbiting QuikScat satellite, are getting a jump on hurricanes by being able to spot tropical depressions by analyzing surface wind measurements.
The Quick Scatterometer spacecraft carries an instrument called SeaWinds that beams cloud-piercing microwave signals at the earth’s surface and records changes in the reflected radiation, called backscatter. From the backscatter, scientists can figure out the roughness of the sea surface and infer the direction of the wind, according to an article in the 2 October issue of Space News.
The satellite is proving useful for studying thunderstorms that flow off the coast of Africa toward the United States each summer, the article read. Some of these disturbances evolve into tropical depressions, whose circular wind patterns are key to predicting hurricanes.
The article quoted James Franklin, a hurricane forecaster at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida: “To have a depression, winds (at the surface) must be coming in from all directions in a closed circle.”
Before QuikScat, forecasters had to rely on commercial ships to pass on these surface wind readings. Failing that, they had to wait until the disturbance came into range of U.S. hurricane hunter aircraft. However, the hurricane hunter aircraft can fly no farther than 480 kilometers east of the Leeward and Windward Islands, Franklin said.
QuikScat was launched in June 1999. It is not the first scatterometer to reach orbit, but it is the best yet for hurricane forecasting, said Evan Forde, an oceanographer with NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, also in Miami. The satellite returns data along an 1800-kilometer-wide swath, Forde said, while the previous largest swath was 450 kilometers.
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Richard Sterban, bass vocalist with the Oak Ridge Boys, has recorded new 30- and 60-second public service announcements for NOAA’s Weather Radio network, the voice of the National Weather Service.
The network of more than 550 NOAA Weather Radio stations also is the primary trigger for activating America’s emergency alert system on commercial radio and television stations.
“I own a NOAA Radio and have found it very useful whenever severe weather moves into the Nashville area,” said Sterban. “When vacationing, I listen to it every day to determine whether I want to go sailing, go out to the reef, or stay on land and go to the beach.”
Since 1998, three major nighttime tornadoes have claimed nearly 100 lives in central Florida, Alabama and Georgia. In each of these episodes, NOAA Weather Radio, with its special alert features, helped to lessen the death toll.
To hear Sterban’s announcements, visit http://www.nws.noaa.gov/pa/psas.htm.
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One of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s most popular climate Internet sites has been overhauled to highlight in even greater terms the products that assess and forecast the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events.
Web users now can easily surf to 6- to 10-day and seasonal forecasts; seasonal drought, excessive heat, and hurricane season outlooks; as well as El Niño and La Niña advisories, officials explained.
The Climate Prediction Center’s Web site (http://www.nnic.noaa.gov/cpc/) also features expert analysis from meteorologists and climatologists, temperature and precipitation data, U.S. and world temperature and precipitation climate maps, and graphs and educational materials.
“In the Internet age, finding timely climate forecasts, assessments, and data should not be a headache for anyone,” said Ants Leetmaa, director of the Climate Prediction Center. “This makeover emphasizes our goal to strengthen relationships with our customers and build relationships with new ones to manage weather- and climate-related risk.”
Some of the center’s most popular older products are the 6–10-Day Outlook, the U.S. Threats Assessment, the El Niño/La Niña advisories, and the 30- and 90-Day Outlooks, according to officials. Within the last year, the center has introduced the U.S. Drought Assessment, the Hurricane Outlook, and the Excessive Heat Outlook.
The Climate Prediction Center is one of the nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction, a part of the National Weather Service.
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The Department of Energy’s Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) has released its 1751–1997 estimates of CO2 emissions on global, regional, and national scales.
Developed by CDIAC’s Gregg Marland and Tom Boden and Bob Andres (University of North Dakota), the 1997 estimate for global CO2 emissions, 6601 metric tons of carbon, is the highest fossil-fuel emission estimate ever.
The 1997 estimate represents a 1.3% increase over 1996, continuing a trend of modest growth since a 1991–93 decline in global CO2 emissions.
The estimates are available at http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ndps/ndp030.html.
CDIAC also has released an update database from the global ALE/GAGE/AGAGE monitoring network, which provides continuous high-frequency measurements of methane, nitrous oxide, several halogenated hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and hydrogen. This database supports analyses and monitoring related to both greenhouse gases and the earth’s ozone layer.
The data and documentation are available at http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ndps/alegage.html.
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The NOAA-16 polar-orbiting weather satellite was launched successfully on a Titan 2 rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, on 21 September. NOAA-16 was named NOAA-L before launch.
The $209 million satellite lifted off at 6:22 A.M. EDT, heading south away from California’s central coast and successfully reached its planned orbit about an hour and a half later. It will enter service in about two months after a full on-orbit checkout, collecting data needed to generate long-term weather forecasts and for global environmental research.
The satellite will replace the 6-year-old NOAA-14 satellite that has passed its design life and drifted out of the desired orbital perch around earth.
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While evidence of the 1997/98 El Niño was readily apparent on land—with storms and flooding that caused millions of dollars in damage—new studies have detailed El Niño's extensive consequences in the ocean environment. New evidence produced by researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography of the University of California, San Diego, shows that warm, nutrient-depleted waters ushered in during the El Niño resulted in a reduction in phytoplankton—the plants that are the base of the marine ecosystem.
Using high-resolution, color-sensitive images from U.S. and Japanese satellites, Mati Kahru and Greg Mitchell report in the 15 September issue of Geophysical Research Letters that the 1997/98 event—one of the strongest El Niños on record—supplanted the normal upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters in the California Current system.
"When El Niño suppresses the availability of nutrients in the sunlit surface waters, the abundance of phytoplankton declines," said Greg Mitchell, research biologist in the Marine Research Division at Scripps. "Phytoplankton communities are the primary producers for the ocean, comparable to grasslands for terrestrial systems. Success of fish population recruitment, and therefore commercial fisheries, may in part depend on interannual cycles of nutrient and phytoplankton distributions associated with El Niño and La Niña."
The authors argue that one of El Niño's effects on the California Current system is both a reduction and a more uniform distribution of phytoplankton, which results in a critical reduction in the high-concentration patches of phytoplankton that may be necessary for success in the planktonic stages of fish populations.
While Kahru and Mitchell documented reductions in satellite estimates of surface phytoplankton for water off central and southern California, they found a significant increase off Baja California.
"We believe this increase off Baja may be due to blooms of 'nitrogen-fixing' cyanobacteria. Some open-ocean cyanobacteria are more abundant in nutrient-depleted, strongly stratified waters because they are capable of fixing nitrogen gas into organic matter, reducing their dependence on nutrient upwelling,” said Mitchell.
Kahru and Mitchell's data showed the effects that made the 1997/98 event one of the strongest on record. In a 15-year span, satellite sea surface temperatures for some regions were the highest in 1998 and lowest in 1999. The researchers observed a strong transition out of the El Niño in 1998 into the cold surface water La Niña event in 1999.
Kahru, Mitchell, and their colleagues specialize in ocean observations combined from satellites and ships. Funding for their study was provided by NASA.
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Dr. John Spengler, the Akira Yamaguchi Professor of Environmental Health and Human Habitation at the Harvard School of Public Health, was honored in London recently by the Royal Society for the Promotion of Health for his long career of improving urban health and indoor air quality. Spengler is a councilor and fellow of the AMS.
The Royal Society for the Promotion of Health was formally known as the Royal Society of Health and was founded in 1876 to promote continuous improvement in health worldwide through education, communication, and the encouragement of scientific research. Dr. Spengler, who directs the Environmental Science and Engineering Program, received the J.W. Starkey Silver Medal, given each year to an individual who has made outstanding contributions to promoting better health. He is currently working with Boston officials to make housing healthier and safer for residents and their children. In particular, he is investigating why children in U.S. public housing suffer asthma rates up to 5 times the national average.
Last May, Dr. Spengler and a colleague sparked debate among public health groups and legislators when they released a landmark report describing the exposure of 32 million people to air pollution from two Massachusetts coal-fired power plants. The report triggered calls by some state officials for more stringent laws governing air emissions.
Dr. Spengler has engaged in similar studies of environmentally beleaguered cities in Russia and is currently analyzing data from a health study of 6000 Russian children in 9 cities to measure impacts of outdoor air pollution and housing conditions on health.
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John L. (Jack) Hayes was named as director of the Office of Meteorology at National Weather Service (NWS) headquarters in Silver Spring, Maryland, in June 2000. As part of the NWS reorganization Hayes, an AMS councilor, will become director of the NWS Office of Science and Technology. The change is effective 8 October 2000.
Hayes joined the NWS from Litton PRC, where he was general manager overseeing the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, a cornerstone of the NWS modernization program. Prior to his work at Litton PRC, Hayes held various command and staff position in the U.S. Air Force. Most recently he was commander of the Air Force Weather Agency and Global Weather Center, at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska. He is also a National Weather Association councilor.
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Mischelle “Mish” Michaels recently joined The Weather Channel as cohost of the network's new prime-time show Atmospheres. Michaels is a broadcast meteorologist at 7 News WHDH-TV in Boston, where she will continue to work. Before 7 News, she worked as a meteorologist and environmental reporter for WMUR-TV 9 in Manchester, New Hampshire. Michaels was awarded the AMS Broadcast Seal of Approval in 1997 and is current chair of the AMS Board on Women and Minorities. She holds a B.S. degree in meteorology from Cornell University and an M.Ed. from Harvard University.
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