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As part of an ongoing commitment to education and outreach, the AMS will hold the second annual WeatherFest at the Annual Meeting in Long Beach, California, next February. WeatherFest is a four-hour science and weather fair dedicated to teaching about the fascinating field of meteorology. WeatherFest will take place on Sunday, 9 February, at the Long Beach Convention and Entertainment Center and is open to the general public and free of charge. WeatherFest events include science presentations, hands-on experiments, videos and an exhibit hall full of resources.
Last year’s inaugural event in Orlando attracted more than 500 students, teachers, and families. They took part in science experiments such as building an anemometer, describing how surface ocean currents develop, exploring the physics of lightning and lightning safety, making clouds, and using a parachute to explain some unique atmospheric properties.
The Second Annual WeatherFest is going to be better than ever—with more hands-on demonstrations, more exhibitors and more give-a-ways. Exciting weather footage showing severe storms, tsunamis, floods, and wildfires will be featured in the theater adjacent to the WeatherFest Displays. Former astronaut Sally Ride (invited) and Jack Elrod of Mark Trail fame will add to the festivities. Outside demonstrations will include a weather balloon launch by the local NWS forecast office that will provide memorable first-hand experiences. Food and beverages will be available for purchase.
Attendees will be able to conduct an on-camera weather forecast and take a souvenir videotape home with them. “Walk-On Weather” will be provided by Weather Central and Subaru of America, Inc. They can also get a first-hand look at the newest and most sophisticated storm chasing vehicle used by tornado experts to learn more about twisters
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will inaugurate “Science on a Sphere,” a new imaging technique for weather and earth science information. “Science on a Sphere” is a large projected image of the rotating earth with topographic information overlain on the landmasses; current weather information is displayed showing the effects of mountains and oceans. This exhibit will be suspended above the show floor.
Teachers from across the United States and from the local area will do lots of hands-on demonstrations to teach attendees about the inner workings of the atmosphere, our weather and climate, and the marine environment.
The following groups have already confirmed their participation in the Second Annual WeatherFest: NASA Earth Science Enterprise, the National Weather Service, The American Red Cross, the American Institute of Physics–Science Clips, Sunwise–Environmental Protection Agency, WeatherCentral–Subaru “Walk-On Weather,” the Mount Washington Observatory, The Weather Channel, Mike Mogil “How the Weather Works,” the U.S. Navy Research Laboratory, the Naval Meteorological Oceanographic Command, the National Severe Storms Laboratory, and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration/Forecast Systems Laboratory.
WeatherFest will be collocated with the AMS Resource Center, a great place to get books and resources for all interested parties; the AMS Education Program, dedicated to helping teachers fulfill their missions; and the AMS Career Fair, educating future scientists.
For more information about WeatherFest, contact Stephanie Kenitzer at (425) 432-2192 or via email (kenitzer@dc.ametsoc.org). Check the AMS web site (www.ametsoc.org/ams) for updates.
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Vaisala Group has acquired Global Atmospherics Corporation (GAI) of Tucson, Arizona, from Sankosha Group. Global Atmospherics is a lightning detection equipment manufacturer and lightning data services operator.
As a manufacturer of standalone lightning detection instruments and low frequency (LF) lightning detection networks GAI has recently developed very high frequency (VHF) lightning detection technology. The company owns and operates a nationwide lightning sensor network and sells various lightning data products to the National Weather Service, airports, power utilities, recreational facilities, insurance companies, and weather service providers. The company is also participating in lightning data services in Canada, France, Central Europe, and the Benelux countries.
In early 2000, Vaisala acquired another lightning detection network manufacturer, Dimensions SA of France, which currently belongs to the Remote Sensing Division of Vaisala. Vaisala intends to integrate Global Atmospherics into this division. The Remote Sensing Division will focus in two new and expanding fields of atmospheric measurement: nowcasting and mesoscale forecasting.
Vaisala, located in Sunnyvale, California, is an international technology group that develops and manufactures electronic measurement systems and equipment. For more on the company see www.vaisala.com.
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TRW Space and Electronics has been selected to build a fleet of next-generation weather satellites under a contract worth as much as $4.5 billion.
The Redondo Beach, California, unit of TRW, Inc., of Cleveland, beat out Bethesda-based Lockheed Martin Corp, of Maryland, for the contract, which calls for building two satellites with options for four more for launch between 2009 and 2018.
TRW will build the satellites for the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS), which merges two meteorological satellite systems NASA and the Defense Department have run independently for 40 years.
The six new polar-orbiting satellites are designed to collect data on the earth’s weather and climate as well its land, oceans, and atmosphere. The program includes a ground control system and a data processing and dissemination network, which TRW will develop with its partner Raytheon, Inc., officials explained.
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The National Weather Service and AWS Convergence Technologies, Inc., joined forces last month to bolster the government’s ability to respond to a homeland security event and protect lives and property.
If a homeland security incident takes place involving airborne hazardous materials, the National Weather Service will pull in real-time weather data from the AWS WeatherNet network to improve forecasts that government agencies, the military and emergency managers can use to make critical decisions. The AWS WeatherNet network, established in 1993, is a highly dense, nationwide commercial weather network that includes more than 6,000 automated weather station locations based primarily at schools.
The partnership would particularly aid response in major metropolitan areas, where AWS has a high concentration of weather monitoring stations in its WeatherNet network. In a homeland security event, such as a bioterrorist or chemical attack, the National Weather Service, using AWS stations, can quickly assess local weather conditions, such as surface wind speeds and temperatures that could spread airborne hazardous materials and affect nearby communities, more quickly and more precisely
Weather information has long played a pivotal role in the government’s ability to respond to major disasters. After the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center, multiple mobile weather stations were installed near Ground Zero, which the NOAA Weather Service used to provide rescue workers with more precise wind forecast models that helped them predict the direction smoke would spread and adjust their response accordingly. AWS has more than 40 weather stations in the area, the closest of which is just a half mile from the site. During this incident, access to the AWS weather stations would have complemented the government’s ability to respond.
AWS currently uses NOAA Weather Service data along with data obtained through their own weather sensor network to distribute NOAA Weather Service forecasts and storm/weather warnings to nearly 12 million users. More than 100 local TV stations integrate local weather data from the AWS network into their forecast reports.
Information about AWS Convergence Technologies, Inc. is available at http://www.aws.com.
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MentorNet, the E-Mentoring Network for Women in Engineering and Science, is currently recruiting mentors for the 2002–03 school year. The One-on-One Mentoring Program pairs women engineering and science students with professionals working in industry or government. Mentors and students communicate by email throughout the year about professional goals, workplace issues, course work, and other topics of their choice.
MentorNet encourages applications from both women and men, with an educational or professional background in engineering or science and who are currently employed in private industry or government sectors.
To apply, go to www.MentorNet.net, and click on “Community.” Sign in as a new or returning member, and follow the link for the One-on-One Mentoring Program. The application deadline is 31 October 2002.
MentorNet’s Sponsors include 3M; Alcoa Foundation; Atlantic Philanthropies; AT&T; the Elizabeth and Stephen J. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation; Cisco Systems; Engineering Information Foundation; EMC; Google; IBM; Intel; The International Society for Optical Engineering; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Los Alamos National Laboratory; Maui Economic Development Board; Motorola; National Science Foundation; Sandia National Laboratory; SAP Labs; Schlumberger; University Aviation Administration; U.S. Department of Education’s FIPSE; and the U.S. Department of Transportation.
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The Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, chaired by Senator Edward Kennedy (D-Massachusetts) did not take up the National Science Foundation (NSF) “doubling” bill before its August recess. The bill authorizes funding beginning in FY03 that would increase that agency’s budget from approximately $5 billion per year in FY02 to $10 billion by FY07.
Apparently, some members of the committee held up consideration of the bill for procedural and/or political reasons that are completely unrelated to its substance. As a result, before the recess, the committee did not “mark up” the bill; that is, bring it before the full committee for consideration of potential amendments and then submit it to a vote. It would then be passed on to the full Senate for possible consideration in a floor vote.
This is a disappointment for those supporting doubling of NSF’s budget, because with the work load in both Houses of Congress, it is now less likely that the HELP Committee will have time to take up the bill.
The House bill is H.R. 4664 (already approved by the full House); the Senate bill S. 2817. Part of the problem the delay presents is that while the Senate bill authorizes funding up to FY07, the House bill only authorizes funding up to FY05. There are other differences in the bills, and even if the HELP Committee cleared the bill and the Senate passed it, there would have to be a conference committee to reconcile moderately substantial differences. This takes up precious time, especially given the 1 October start of the new fiscal year, meaning Congress has to focus on spending bills, as well as issues of homeland security and corporate governance.
The Senate Appropriations Committee has passed a bill providing for a 10.8% increase in the NSF budget for FY03. This is not up to the “doubling” standard, though it is substantial and a strong statement of the rising tide of support for the concept on Capitol Hill. The “doubling” authorization bill, however, is important as a potential statement of support for the ideal among all members of Congress and important as a foundation to the movement to double the NSF budget. If it passes this year, it is quite likely that, in fact, NSF will be put on that track, as Congress would be providing a powerful message to the appropriations committees that actually provide funding.
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As noted in last month’s AMS Newsletter, the federal appropriations process is even more behind schedule than usual because of the war on terrorism and the corporate accounting scandals. In most years, the full Appropriations Committees in both Houses have passed their 13 appropriations bills by the time of the August recess. This year, the full Senate Appropriations Committee has passed all its bills at this writing (though not the full Senate), while the full House Appropriations Committee has only passed six of them.
Of special interest in the FY03 budget to AMS are the Commerce, Justice, State, and the Judiciary (CJS) bill, covering NOAA; the Veterans Administration, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies (VA-HUD) bill, covering NASA and NSF; the Interior bill, covering USGS water programs; and the Energy and Water Development bills, covering the Department of Energy’s science programs, most especially the atmospheric science programs within the Biological and Environment Research account.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
The NOAA budget approved by the full Senate Appropriations Committee is rather problematic this year and is proposed to be funded at a rate of tens of millions of dollars below the president’s request. The reason is that the Senate bill does not provide full funding for what are termed “adjustments to base,” that is, inflationary increases that fund pay increases and other mandatory inflationary costs, such as increases in rents for various NOAA facilities. As a result, to pay for these increases, including a congressionally mandated pay increase for federal government employees, other programs will have to be downsized or eliminated. For example, in the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), the adjustment of base shortfall will amount to something in the vicinity of $10 million for FY03.
There are complexities here that are beyond the scope of the AMS Newsletter, but in large measure these inflationary adjustments were not funded across NOAA.
As a summary across the National Weather Service (NWS), Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) and NESDIS, the following are some other items that were not funded up to the administration’s request.
In the NWS, the Senate failed to fulfill the administration’s request for the congressionally mandated Huntsville, Alabama, Weather Forecast Office, the Forecast Office Repair and Maintenance account, the Aviation Weather Initiative, and the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS).
In the OAR account, there are shortfalls from the administration’s request in, among other items, its Climate Change Research Initiative, including the Regional Integrated Science Assessments Program, the Global Climate Observing System, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, the Climate Modeling Center, the Ocean Observations request, as well as in the carbon monitoring program. In addition the U.S. Weather Research Program was not fully funded, including appropriations for the hurricanes/inland flooding program request.
In the NESDIS account, there was a shortfall from the administration’s request in Satellite Communications and Control, Product Processing and Distribution, and in the NESDIS portion of the Joint Data Assimilation Center (with NASA).
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
The Senate’s proposed appropriation for the NASA Earth Sciences Enterprise is currently funded at the administration’s request in all of its accounts. In addition, the report accompanying the Senate bill emphasized the importance of NASA’s role in climate change research.
National Science Foundation
The Senate Appropriations VA-HUD Subcommittee bill would provide NSF with an overall increase of 10.8% for FY03. The increase in the Geosciences Directorate is $75 million over last year’s funding level of $685 million. The Committee rejected the administration’s proposal to transfer programs from NOAA, EPA and the USGS into NSF. Instead of the transfer, those funds are to be used at NSF to augment high priority activities in the earth, atmospheric, and oceanic sciences.
Department of Energy’s Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Program
The president requested only $504 million for this program for FY03, as compared to an appropriation of $570 million in FY02. The Senate Appropriations Committee, however, recommended a total appropriation of $531 million, which means that all the requests in atmospheric sciences–related programs would be funded at least up to the administration’s request. In almost all cases, it should be noted, these requests were at least slightly above the FY02 level, especially in the area of climate change (the atmospheric sciences–related programs), where the administration requested close to a $10 million increase over last year’s total of $129 million.
See related article on House Science Committee support for DOE science funding at http://www.house.gov/science/press/107/107-268.htm.
USGS Water Programs
The appropriations committees in both Houses of Congress fully rejected cuts to the USGS water programs proposed by the administration.
The full Senate Appropriations Committee has proposed increases in the overall USGS budget from $914 million in FY02 to $927 million in FY03, while the full House Appropriations Committee is proposing an increase to $928 million for FY03.
Both bills propose a nearly 2% increase in the water programs, up to approximately $210 million for FY03. This includes approximately $14.3 million for the stream guage program. This funding level is actually quite positive, even if it is at the same level as FY02, as the funding still allows for modernization and maintenance of the system. It also includes enough funding to allow USGS to reactivate or build between 50–100 stream guages in FY03, added to the approximately 7,000 currently operating.
Both Houses also propose flat funding for the Groundwater Resources Program at approximately $5 million for FY03, which is approximately at the level of the administration’s request, a program crucial to monitoring drought conditions.
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Legislation to implement the Bush administration’s Clear Skies Initiative, a plan to cut power plant pollution by 70% and protect human health, has been sent to Congress, according to officials at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Pointing out that the nation has made “significant progress over the last 30 years in our quest for cleaner air,” President Bush said, “Building upon the success of our most effective clean air program, we have crafted a new Clean Air Act for the 21st century—one that will do more to clean up emissions from power plants than ever before.”
“Clear Skies will protect public health and the environment and dramatically improve America’s air quality,” said EPA Administrator Christie Whitman. “The president and I are committed to a plan that will clean up power plant pollution much faster than current laws. This plan makes sense for the environment, public health, and American consumers.”
Last 14 February, the president announced the Clear Skies Initiative, which sets strict, mandatory emission caps for three of the most harmful air pollutants—sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NO2), and mercury. Administration officials hope to reduce power plant emissions of these pollutants by 70%, eliminating 35 million more tons of these pollutants in the next decade than the current Clean Air Act.
Analytical data by EPA computer modeling shows that nationwide reductions of these three pollutants will result in vast improvements in air quality, most notably in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest. Many communities would meet air quality standards for the first time in years, according to EPA officials.
Clear Skies’ emission reductions would curtail pollutants that cause smog, acid rain, haze, and mercury and nitrogen deposition, officials explained. In 2020, Clear Skies would deliver $96 billion per year in health and visibility benefits, including preventing 12,000 premature deaths, they reported.
Additional health benefits in 2020 include 10,500 fewer hospitalizations or emergency room visits per year and 13.5 million fewer daily occurences of Americans suffering from minor respiratory symptoms, including days out of work, missed classroom days, restricted activity days, and days with asthma attacks. Under an alternative estimate, Clear Skies would deliver $11 billion in benefits, including 7,000 avoided premature deaths annually in 2020.
Clear Skies also would have significant environmental benefits, according to the administration, such as virtually eliminating the problem of chronic acidification of lakes in the Adirondack mountains of northern New York and dramatically reducing nitrogen and mercury deposition in forest and bodies of water.
According to administration officials, Clear Skies would:
Additional information about Clear Skies, including legislative language and region-specific information about air quality and health benefits, can be found on EPA’s web site at: www.epa.gov/clearskies.
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On 24 July, the Environment, Technology, and Standards Subcommittee examined the ability of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to handle and utilize satellite data. The hearing focused on the difficulties experienced by NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service in providing data to DOD and the National Weather Service, and whether NOAA will be prepared for the tremendous influx in data when the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System becomes operational later this decade. According to an article from the American Institute of Physics, Chairman Vern Ehlers (R-Michigan) said it is the subcommittee’s duty, “to ensure that the taxpayers are getting their money’s worth. But getting our money’s worth is not simply contingent on a satellite being successfully launched... The key factor is using the data.”
FYI: The AIP Bulletin of Science Policy News wrote that NOAA itself has reported that it has been unable to achieve timely delivery of 65% of satellite data and data products sought by DOD and the National Weather Service. Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere Conrad Lautenbacher noted in his testimony that NOAA has experienced a tenfold increase in data archived and a fiftyfold increase in users over the past decade, while the number of data products produced in support of DOD and the National Weather Service increased from 40 to 500. He admitted that “a backlog of new satellite products ... has accumulated” and the reliability of the Data and Information Service’s satellite data processing operations “has also degraded.” However, he noted that the FY03 budget request includes funding for several initiatives to help correct these problems.
The hearing also addressed the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS), which represents the merging of NOAA and DOD weather and climate monitoring efforts into a single program. Witnesses acknowledged that NOAA and its Satellite, Data, and Information Service are not yet prepared to receive and archive the enormous increase in data to come from NPOESS. However, GAO’s Director of Information Management Issues, Linda Koontz, testified that “the four processing centers and the integrated program office are well aware of these data management challenges and are planning to address them.... Because the NPOESS launch is several years in the future, agencies have time to build up their respective infrastructures and models so that they can handle increased data volumes.”
Lautenbacher’s statement indicated that some of the funding to modernize data handling, through a program called the Comprehensive Large Array-Data Stewardship System (CLASS) has been requested for NOAA but not specifically under the NPOESS program. “NOAA has made significant progress in its ability to archive and provide access,” his testimony noted, “and will continue to leverage these advancing technologies through effective stewardship of current resources. Management of the increased volume of data can be accomplished only through a rapid expansion in storage capacity, increased communications bandwidth, and automation of the means of data ingest, quality control, and access. The CLASS program will act as the connection in NOAA’s effort to meet these challenges and pave the way to accommodate the additional massive data volumes expected over the next several years.”
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Persistent drought conditions that have plagued much of the nation this summer have now spread to 49% of the contiguous United States, according to officials at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina.
As of the end of July, NOAA reported, 49% of the 48 contiguous states were affected by moderate to extreme drought.
Areas of extreme drought stretched from the Southwest to Montana and Nebraska, and from Georgia to Virginia, officials explained.
The greatest area of drought coverage to date occurred in July 1934, when moderate to extreme conditions covered 80% of the contiguous United States.
More information is available at www.ncdc.noaa.gov.
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After 10 years, NOAA scientists have determined that Hurricane Andrew was even stronger than originally believed when it struck south Florida in 1992. Based on new research, scientists upgraded the storm from a Category 4 to a Category 5, the highest on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane scale.
In its reanalysis of the storm’s maximum sustained surface wind speeds, the NOAA/National Hurricane Center Best Track Committee, a team of hurricane experts, concluded winds were 165 mph—20 mph faster than estimated earlier—as the storm made landfall.
The upgrade makes Andrew only the third Category 5 (wind speeds greater than 155 mph) hurricane on record to strike the United States. The other two were the “Florida Keys 1935 Hurricane” and Hurricane Camille in 1969, officials reported.
“There is always some uncertainty in determining the maximum winds in a hurricane, and Andrew is no exception,” said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center, a part of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Our previous estimate was 145 mph, based on the science available in 1992. With advanced research techniques and technology, we now estimate the winds were stronger.”
Andrew was directly responsible for 23 fatalities in Florida and Louisiana and about $25 billion in damages (1992 dollars), officials said.
The National Hurricane Center has had on ongoing program to review the historical record of all storms. Scientists and other researchers note that society needs an accurate account of the frequency and intensity of past catastrophic events to best plan for the future.
“We have recently completed a review of a reanalysis of storms from 1851 to 1910,” explained Colin McArdle, chairman of the center’s Best Track Committee. The reanalysis was undertaken by Chris Landsea of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division (HRD) and supported by a grant from the NOAA Office of Global Programs (OGP).
Hurricane Andrew is one of the most significant cases studied. According to McArdle, the scientific understanding of the wind structure in strong hurricanes has significantly increased since 1992. For Andrew, the Best Track Committee considered input from scientists at the HRD, including the reanalysis team and National Hurricane Center.
Since 1997, forecasters have used Global Positioning System dropwindsondes dropped into the eyewall, the windiest part of a hurricane. The sonde system measures temperature, barometric pressure, water vapor, and wind data every 15 feet on its way down.
The new method gave meteorologists an important glimpse into the true strength of these devastating storms. The analyses of the dropwindsonde data indicated that, on average, the maximum sustained surface wind speed was about 90% of the wind measured at the 10,000-foot aircraft level, flown as Andrew approached south Florida. The research findings resulted in an increase in the estimated wind speeds from 145 mph to 165 mph in Andrew.
The Best Track Committee findings were as follows.
When Andrew hit southeast Miami-Dade County on 24 August 1992, flying debris in the storm’s winds knocked out most ground-based wind measuring instruments and widespread power outages caused electric-based measuring equipment to fail, officials explained. They said winds were so strong that many wind-measuring tools were incapable of registering the maximum winds.
Surviving wind observations and measurements from aircraft reconnaissance, surface pressure, satellite analysis, radar, and distribution of debris and structural failures were used to estimate the surface winds.
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Those condensation trails (contrails) sometimes left by jet aircraft may have an affect on temperatures on the earth. The water vapor in the exhaust trails produced by jets can condense into cloudlike formations. Scientists have long wondered if these artificial clouds could have an effect on climate. But to study that was virtually impossible. That is until last 11 September when all commercial aircraft were grounded following the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
For the three days the planes were grounded, David J. Travis and his colleagues at the University of Wisconsin at Whitewater compared the range between the highest and lowest daily temperature recorded in approximately 4,000 weather stations in the continental United States with measurements from the same period from 1977 to 2000.
The researchers found that the days were a little warmer and the nights a little cooler after 11 September, making the range of temperatures about 3° greater when the planes were grounded, the researchers reported in an article in the 8 August issue of Nature.
The contrails, say the researchers, probably mimic cirrus clouds, which act like an insulator and reflect the heat of the sun during the day and trap heat at night.
“We argue that the absence of contrails was responsible for the difference,” they wrote.
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Researchers studying global warming have often been confounded by the differences between observed increases in surface-level temperatures and unchanging low-atmosphere temperatures. Because of this discrepancy, some have argued that global warming is unproven, suggesting instead that true warming should show uniformly elevated temperatures from the surface through the atmosphere. Researchers have proposed a theory that changes in cloud cover could help explain the puzzling phenomenon, but none, until now, has come up with an argument that could account for the varying heat profiles.
A study in the July 2002 issue of Journal of Geophysical Research—Space Physics, published by the American Geophysical Union, proposes for the first time that interstellar cosmic rays could be the missing link between the discordant temperatures observed during the last two decades (since recorded satellite records began in 1979). The report, by Fangqun Yu of the University of Albany, State University of New York, proposes that the rays—tiny charged particles that bombard all planets with varying frequency depending on solar wind intensity—may have height-dependent effects on our planet’s cloudiness.
“A systematic change in global cloud cover will change the atmospheric heating profile,” Yu reported. “In other words, the cosmic ray–induced global cloud changes could be the long sought mechanism connecting solar and climate variability.”
The hypothesis, if confirmed, could also shed light on the sun’s role in global warming. The amount of cosmic rays reaching the earth depends on solar winds, which vary in strength by space weather conditions. Yu points out that indications of the earth’s warming have coincided with decreased cosmic ray intensity during the 20th century. Such explanations for natural causes of global warming do not rule out human contributions to temperature change, but present the possibility that humans are not solely responsible for some of the observed temperature increases.
In addition, recent satellite data have revealed a correlation between cosmic ray intensity and the fraction of the earth covered by low clouds. Yu proposes that the amount and charge of cosmic ray–generated ions can contribute to the formation of dense clouds by stimulating the production rate of low-atmosphere particles that make the clouds more opaque. In addition, natural and man-made differences in atmospheric chemistry, like greenhouse gas concentrations, can also affect the cosmic rays’ influence on clouds, according to Yu. Such height-dependent atmospheric differences can increase the quantity of ambient particles in the lower troposphere and decrease the particles in the upper air, thus affecting the type of cloud cover.
High clouds, for example, generally reflect sunlight while lower clouds tend to retain surface energy; both effects are scientifically well established and have a significant effect on global temperatures. The data provides evidence supporting Yu’s claim that cosmic ray–induced cloud changes may have warmed the earth’s surface but cooled the lower troposphere, which could provide an explanation of the earth’s varying temperature trends.
The research was supported by the National Science Foundation.
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A new United Nations report released in August suggests that an enormous blanket of pollution stretching across Asia is distorting normal weather patterns, a phenomenon, according to the report, that could have devastating effects on many nations’ economies.
Called the “Asian Brown Cloud,” the layer of pollution composed of ash, acids, aerosols, and other particles from air pollution emitted into the atmosphere across Asia, is nearly 2 miles thick and extends across the most densely populated areas of the world—southern, southeastern, and eastern Asia.
The cloud is reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the ground by as much as 15% while warming the lower parts of the atmosphere, according to the report, issued by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
The latest U.N. report warns that the cloud is causing changes in the winter monsoon season, sharply reducing rain over northwestern parts of Asia and increasing rain along the eastern coast. It could cause winter rice harvests to drop in India by as much as 10%, the report noted.
The report indicated that scientists are concerned that the impact of the haze will intensify over the next 20 years as the continent’s population continues to grow to an estimated 5 billion people
The United Nations Environment Programme press release is available at:
http://www.unep.org/Documents/Default.asp?DocumentID=259&ArticleID=3103.
A copy of the report “The Asia Brown Cloud: Climate and other Environmental Impacts” is available at http://www.rrcap.unep.org/abc/impactstudy.
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The nation’s historical weather and climate records, in danger of deterioration, are being transferred to a state-of-the-art digital medium at a newly dedicated facility in Jenkins, Kentucky.
Image Entry dedicated the new facility in Jenkins on 31 July. Here the company will preserve the data for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as part of the Climate Database Modernization Program. NOAA sponsors the program through its National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. Previously in danger of being lost because of deterioration, these historic environmental records will be permanently conserved and made accessible to the public.
The Climate Database Modernization Program brings historical climate records on paper into the world of computers and the Internet. These records include foreign data journals, shoreline charts, historical water levels, surface airways, marine observations, cooperative data forms, and film images of clouds, snow, ice, and fires. Even the daily and seasonal weather recordings of George Washington and Thomas Jefferson will be included.
Data are a large part of the foundation of NOAA, said Gregory Withee, assistant administrator of NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NOAA Satellite and Information Service). They allow NOAA to support decision makers at all levels of the government and across the private sector.
One of the early tasks that Image Entry completed was to digitize historical temperatures and rainfall records.
It is from this type of data that scientists can determine the probabilities of extreme rainfall events to help mitigate the impacts of flash flooding, said Thomas Karl, director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. The daily weather observations that have been digitized will help scientists understand temperature and precipitation patterns.
These, in turn, are key to making wise decisions in such diverse areas as road design and construction, forestry management, air quality improvements, and wise energy use.
Image Entry’s partner in this program is Information Manufacturing Corporation from Rocket Center, West Virginia. The Climate Database Modernization Program is currently in its third year.
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Trapped water in the 70-square-mile Russell Lake broke free to the ocean on 14 August resulting in the second largest glacial flood worldwide, according to Dennis Trabant, a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) glaciologist.
The trapped water broke free in a spectacular, roiling, and chaotic 36 hours, making the torrential channel into the sea an extremely fast-moving and dangerous river full of large chunks of ice and debris, and resulting in USGS and NWS advisories.
The rushing river created by the discharge was about 300 feet wide and 600 to 700 feet long, Trabant said.
At about 3 A.M. on 14 August, real-time USGS water gauge data revealed that the water level in the lake had peaked at about 61 feet above sea level and had begun to drop for the first time since the gauge’s installation on 23 June. By noon the same day, Trabant and a team from the Alaska Division of Emergency Services flew over the glacier and estimated discharge from the lake of about 300,000 cubic feet of water per second. On a second flight six hours later, Trabant estimated that the flow had nearly tripled.
The one-hour peak discharge of 1.9 million cubic feet of water per second reached on 14 August is the second largest glacial lake outburst worldwide in historical times, exceeded only by the 1986 outburst of Russell Lake, which was about 3.7 million cubic feet per second, officials reported.
In comparison, the 14 August discharge was about 30% greater than the peak historic flow on the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
USGS glaciologists expected that the lake level returned to its more normal sea level by early afternoon on 15 August, ending the event about 36 hours after it started and returning the lake to its former status as a fiord. The recent episode carved out new 600-foot-wide entrance into Russell Fiord, and the entire moraine dam is now gone.
Hubbard Glacier, which feeds the fiord, has done this before, officials said. In May 1986, the glacier blocked the entrance to Russell Fiord. After that closure, fresh water flowing into the fiord raised the level of the lake to 84 feet above sea level before the ice dam failed about 5 months later. Since 1986, Hubbard Glacier has continued to advance into Disenchantment Bay and Russell Fiord at an average rate of bout 105 feet per year. Large tidal currents have kept a channel open between the glacier and hills to the south.
The rate of the glacier’s advance across the narrow channel connecting Russell Fiord to the sea has averaged only about 20 feet per year since 1986.
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Although nothing has been set in concrete yet, there appears to be a growing interest in expanding NOAA’s Weather Radio to an all-hazard system, including cases of child abduction.
The move follows on the heels of a growing number of child abduction cases across the country and particularly after the successful recovery of two teenage girls in California after “Amber Alert” warnings on electronic highway signs led to police locating the girls and their captor.
While the Amber Alert idea of being incorporated into the weather radio alert system has not yet been approved nationwide by NWS officials such a project is known to have support from FEMA Director Joe Allbaugh and a number of other agencies.
Also, NOAA Weather Radio is being incorporated in a Emergency Alert System in Texas, according to Walt Zaleski, southern region warning coordination meteorologist.
There, a system has been worked out so that when the state’s Department of Public Safety asks for assistance through secured communications almost instantaneously the warning is dispatched to the state’s 46 NOAA weather transmitters, which relay the information to news outlets and the public.
As yet, Zaleski said, the Department of Public Safety has not asked for help. However, he explained that the system could be used for a wide variety of emergencies, including child abductions.
Florida, for example, another state under the direction of NOAA’s Southern Region, used NOAA Weather Radio quite successfully last year when a raging wildfire closed down a main north–south highway (I-75), Zaleski said, and traffic had to be diverted.
Zaleski said he thought the idea of wider use of NOAA Weather Radio to include emergencies other than weather was gaining momentum.
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For decades until the late 1980s, Florida Bay was characterized by crystal-clear water and dense meadows of seagrasses, principally turtle grass. Since then, the water has become clouded and the grasses have been decimated.
A proposed plan to restore the Florida Everglades ecosystem also is expected to improve certain kinds of habitat in Florida Bay by increasing the flow of fresh water into the bay, thereby lowering the salinity that has been blamed for killing the turtle grass and clouding the water.
These expectations may not be fulfilled, however, according to a new report from the National Academies’ National Research Council. The evidence linking salinity to turtle grass decimation is debatable, the report noted, and some calculations call into question the amount of fresh water that would actually reach the bay if the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is fully implemented. Recent observations, according to the report, suggest that an influx of fresh water actually may ferry in higher levels of nitrogen and phosphorous, encouraging algal blooms, which cloud water and harm seagrass.
Because recent evidence suggests that the proposed plan could produce these changes, a focused technical review and evaluation are needed, said the committee that wrote the report. Research also should be performed to reduce uncertainties about the potential long-term effects of CERP on Florida Bay to allow time for alternative strategies to be developed if needed. And more research is needed to pinpoint the factors responsible for killing the seagrasses and clouding the water, the report noted.
In 1999, the federal government asked the National Research Council to advise its South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Task Force on scientific and technical aspects of restoration plans and activities. Florida Bay is included in CERP because it is intimately linked to the Everglades through a series of canals and waterways, and changes in Everglades water flows and ecology will likely affect the bay as well.
The committee’s work was funded by the Department of Interior. Copies of Florida Bay Research Programs and Their Relation to the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan will be available later this summer from the National Academy Press at (202) 334-3313 or 1 (800) 624-6242, or on the Internet at http://www.nap.edu.
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The USGS publication Volcano Watch has issued an article outlining the hazards of earthquakes and volcanoes, pointing out that, while still a long way from perfect, predicting volcanoes is much easier than predicting earthquakes.
“Our extensive experience with earthquakes that range from imperceptible to planet-shaking has led nowhere in terms of short-term prediction,” the article read. “Seismologists can state with very high confidence that an earthquake will occur along the San Andreas fault before the century is out. Yet, this information, though valuable in terms of how soundly to build our homes, falls well short of what is needed to prevent catastrophe.
“It is impractical to evacuate California until further notice, but based on (very accurate) long-term predictions of seismic activity, this is probably the safest thing to do.”
“The problems with volcanic eruptions are almost exactly reversed,” according to the article. “Volcanologists have an excellent track record of correctly calling imminent eruptions. In fact, the biggest hurdle facing a volcanologist with a short-term eruption forecast is often just getting the authorities to accept the reality of the situation. Long-term volcanic prediction, however, remains a difficult business.”
“The bottom line is that humanity has experienced earthquakes throughout the magnitude spectrum, but that our experience with volcanoes is concentrated at the low end of the scale. How does that affect our ability to assess seismic and volcanic hazards? Paradoxically, the answer is ‘not much.’”
Information in Volcano Watch is prepared by scientists at the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.
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The executive summary of the Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002 is now available online from the World Meteorological Organization.
According to project management, the full report is being prepared for publication, and printed copies will be available in April 2003.
An excerpt from the summary reads: “Approximately 250 scientists from many countries of the developed and developing world participated in the 2002 Assessment as lead authors, coauthors, contributors, and reviewers. [The] document is a summary of their current understanding of the stratospheric ozone layer and its relation to humankind.”
Among the findings included in the executive summary are the following.
The summary is available at http://www.unep.org/ozone/pdf/execsumm-sap2002.pdf.
Background information is available at http://www.unep.org/ozone/docs/bkgnd-execsumm-sap2002.doc.
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The United States has pledged $500 million over the next four years to help developing countries mitigate environmental problems with potential global impact.
The commitment to the Global Environment Fund (GEF) represents a 16% increase over the U.S. contribution to the previous replenishment, officials said.
The GEF, established in 1991, funds projects that promote clean and efficient energy use, including reduction of greenhouse gases; conserve biodiversity, clean up international waters, and phase out ozone-depleting chemicals.
The new focal areas to be included in the upcoming replenishment period will help combat problems caused by persistent organic pollutants, which pose a particular threat in areas of the northern United States and fight land degradation in some of the world’s poorest countries.
The United States is the largest contributor to the GEF.
The U.S. pledge includes $107.5 million per year for each of the four years of the replenishment period, plus another $70 million in the fourth year if the GEF meets a set of performance measurements agreed by donors. In addition, the administration is requesting $70.3 million from Congress annually for the next three years to pay off U.S. arrears accumulated during the previous replenishment period.
During the replenishment negotiations in Washington last month, the administration actively pursued measures to improve the effectiveness of GEF assistance and reached agreement to establish a transparent performance-based allocation system that emphasizes country policies and institutional structures essential to effective assistance. Consensus also was reached on projecting and tracking measurable results, developing a private sector strategy, creating an independent monitoring and evaluation unit and opening up competition for GEF projects.
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will give greater emphasis to assessing regional impacts of climate change and appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies in its Fourth Assessment Report that is due for completion in 2007, according to the panel’s chair.
“This increased regional focus will be assisted by improvements in the scientific understanding of climate change”, said the new IPCC chairman Dr. Rajendra Pachauri on 8 August at the end of a 2-day meeting held at the IPCC Secretariat, based at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Geneva, Switzerland.
The new IPCC Bureau was elected last April and represents a geographical balance in keeping with the philosophy and practice of the IPCC. Its 30 experts cover a range of experience and skills relevant to all aspects of climate. Dr. Geoff Love, former deputy director in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, was elected IPCC secretary and succeeded Dr. N. Sundararaman who retired.
The IPCC is regarded as the international authority for conducting assessments of the current state of knowledge about climate change. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the panel in 1988 following growing concerns about the potential impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations on global climate.
The IPCC’s working groups address major aspects of the climate change issue including the latest scientific findings, potential impacts of climate change, and possible response strategies. The IPCC’s Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories is playing an important role in assisting countries to develop internationally consistent ways of accounting for their greenhouse gas emissions.
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A report on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks from 1990–2000 is now available online. This report provides estimates of emissions and removals of greenhouse gases for the United States. It outlines trends, methodologies, data sources, and uncertainties for all anthropogenic sources and sinks, as well as a broad array of other reference information.
This publication was developed by the U.S. Government to meet U.S. commitments under the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 4.1a of the UNFCCC requires that all countries periodically publish and make available to the Conference of the Parties (COP), inventories of anthropogenic emissions and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol.
Subsequent decisions by the COP require the U.S. to submit these reports on an annual basis and include emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) methane(CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and removal of these gases by sinks.
For table of contents to download Acrobat pdf files, go to http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/emissions/us2002/index.html.
Or for the complete publications page, see http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/emissions/index.html.
Printed copies can be ordered online at http://www.epa.gov/ncepihom/ordering.htm, or by calling 1 (800) 490-9198 (U.S.) or 1 (513) 489-8190 (Intl.).
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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Global Warming Web site has just added new kids’ animations about global warming and earth processes. Users can learn about how global warming occurs and how it is linked to the carbon and water cycles.
See http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/kids/animations.html.
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The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on NASA’s Aqua spacecraft opened its Earth-view door in June, allowing scientists to conduct the most comprehensive daily examination of the planet by combining data from two MODIS instruments on sister satellites in Earth orbit.
Like its twin flying aboard NASA’s Terra spacecraft, launched in 1999, Aqua MODIS sees almost the entire surface of the planet every day on 36 channels, ranging from visible to thermal wavelengths. On a daily basis, Terra descends across the equator at 10:30 A.M. in every time zone while Aqua ascends across the equator at 1:30 P.M. in every time zone.
The different timing of the satellites’ pole-to-pole orbits enables scientists to focus on different aspects of the earth’s climate system and to see changes within the system during the course of a day.
“With the launch of Aqua,” said MODIS Team Leader Vince Salomonson, of the Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, “We are able to observe land, ocean, and atmosphere phenomena in the afternoon with Aqua, and in the morning with Terra. This is especially important for observing rapid, time-varying phenomena like clouds and water vapor.”
Data from Aqua MODIS will enable scientists’ ability to track wind and clouds in the polar regions where current weather satellites cannot see, helping meteorologists to better monitor and predict global weather patterns, according to the scientists.
Aqua MODIS will also dramatically improve scientists’ ability to monitor the daily diurnal cycles of the large-scale burning of plant biomass in regions all across the planet.
“Aqua MODIS will complement Terra, providing four observations per day that will better sample the daily cycle of fire activity and provide increased opportunity of cloud-free observations,” said Chris Justice, the MODIS land team leader from University of Maryland at College Park.
For more information and images go to: http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20020815aquafirst.html.
For more on he MODIS instrument go to: http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov.
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Among two Small Explorer (SMEX) missions selected by NASA from seven finalists is a $92 million effort headed by Hampton University in Virginia to determine if growing concentrations of greenhouse gases at high altitudes are responsible for an increase in the number of clouds in the upper atmosphere.
The other mission selected is an $89 million Brown University mission to map the hot gas that makes up half the normal matter in the nearby universe. It is planned for a 2005 launch.
The Hampton University mission is scheduled for launch in 2006.
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Satellite data collected over the past 20 years show a sharp drop in concentrations of phytoplankton in the northern oceans, according to NOAA and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, Aviation Week and Space Technology magazine reported in its 19 August edition.
Levels of the tiny plants at the bottom of the ocean food chain have dropped as much as 30%. Scientists believe the drop has been caused by warmer water temperatures and lower surface winds, which deprive the phytoplankton of needed nutrients.
The data were collected by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner on Nimbus-7, the SeaWIFS instrument on Orbview-2, and by in situ measurements from ships and ocean buoys, according to the scientists.
Researchers cannot say if the change marks a short-term or longer-term climate shift.
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Satellite data since 1998 indicate the bulge in the earth’s gravity field at the equator is growing, and scientists believe that the ocean may hold the answer to the mystery of how the changes in the trend of the earth’s gravity are occurring.
Before 1998, the earth’s equatorial bulge in the gravity field was getting smaller because of the postglacial rebound, or PGR, that occurred as a result of the melting of the ice sheets after the last Ice Age, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, in an article appearing in the August issue of Science.
When the ice sheets melted, land that was underneath the ice started rising and, as the ground rebounded, the gravity field changed, they wrote.
“The earth behaved much like putting your finger into a sponge ball and watching it slowly bounce back,” said Christopher Cox, a Goddard research scientist.
Currently, the earth has a significant upward bulge at the equator and a downward bulge at the poles. “Observations of the earth’s gravity field show some phenomena are counteracting the gravitational effects of PGR,” said Cox. “Whereas PGR has been decreasing the bulge in the earth’s gravity field at the equator, this recent phenomena is causing the bulge to increase.”
Scientists believe movements of mass cause this recent change from the high latitudes to the equator. Such large changes may be cause by climate change, but also could be part of normal long-period climatic variation. “The three areas that can trigger large changes in the earth’s gravitational field are oceans, polar and glacial ice, and atmosphere,” Cox said.
Cox and colleague Dr. Benjamin Chao have ruled out the atmosphere as the cause. Instead, they suggest a significant amount of ice or water must be moving from high-latitude regions to the equator, and oceans could be the vehicle of this movement.
Estimates of today’s glacier and polar ice melting are too small to explain the recent changes in the gravity field, they say. If melting ice were the cause of the recent changes, it would require melting a block of ice 6.2 miles (10 km) on each side by 3.1 miles (5 km) high every year since 1937 and pouring it in the ocean, they explained.
“The recent reports of large icebergs calving in Antarctica can’t explain this, because they were already floating in the ocean,” Cox said. Further, radar altimeter observations of the average sea level rise, provided by the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite, show no corresponding change in the rate of the global sea level increase.
Consequently, they concluded, mass must have been redistributed within the oceans. That’s where the ocean circulation theory comes in. Ocean currents can redistribute mass quickly, much as the 5-year time frame that these changes were first observed. The TOPEX/Poseidon observations of sea level height do show an increase in the equatorial bulge of the oceans corresponding to the observed gravity changes, but the data are not yet conclusive, they reported. One critical factor is the temperature of the world’s oceans and its salinity, for which detailed data are not yet available, they explained.
In 2002, NASA also launched the GRACE and JASON missions that will help to track these sorts of changes in the earth’s geodesy more precisely, and will launch the ICESAT mission this winter.
For more information and images, go to http://www.gsfc.gov/topstory/20020801gravityfield.html.
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David L. Evans, an oceanographer and science research administrator at NOAA, as well as an AMS member, has been selected to lead the Smithsonian Institution’s far-flung science enterprises.
Evans, the assistant administrator for research at NOAA, will become the Smithsonian’s undersecretary for science in September. In that position, he will be in charge of the National Museum of Natural History, the National Air and Space Museum, the National Zoo, the Smithsonian Astrophysical Laboratory in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center in Edgewater, Maryland, and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama.
Evans said part of his goal will be to make the Smithsonian’s science—and science in general—more accessible.
Over the past two years, there have been disputes about the importance and organization of scientific research at the Smithsonian, according to The Washington Post. And the institution’s regents have appointed a blue ribbon panel to make recommendations.
After receiving a degree in mathematics at the University of Pennsylvania, Evans taught public school in Media, Pennsylvania. Later, he enrolled at the University of Rhode Island, earning a doctorate in oceanography and developing specialties in physical oceanography, small-scale dynamics, and climate.
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Stennis Space Center’s Director Roy Estess has announced his plans to retire, effective in August.
Estess, a 27-year veteran of NASA has been the Stennis center director since 1989. Two temporary assignments have taken him away from the Mississippi center since then. In 1992, he was transferred to Washington to serve as special assistant to the NASA administrator, and more recently, he spent 14 months in Houston serving as acting director of the Johnson Space Center.
He is being succeeded as center director by William W. Parsons, formerly operations and support director at Stennis.
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The U.S. Navy has recently selected Rear Admiral Thomas J. “T.J.” Wilson, III, to serve as the next oceanographer and navigator of the navy, replacing retiring Rear Admiral Richard D. West. Admiral Wilson is currently serving as deputy director, Surface Warfare Division, on the staff of the chief of naval operations (CNO).
The oceanographer of the navy is a special assistant to the CNO responsible for five major mission areas: oceanography, meteorology, geospatial information and services (GI&S), precise time, and astrometry. He oversees more than $416 million in total resources, 3280 military and civilian personnel ashore and at sea, a fleet of eight multimission oceanographic survey ships, nine major centers worldwide, the world’s largest dedicated oceanographic computing facility, and the U.S. Naval Observatory’s Master Clock and astrometric telescopes.
Admiral Wilson’s previous tours of duty have included command of two ships, USS Barbey (FF 1088) and USS Vicksburg (CG 69). He has served on the Joint Staff as chief of the Pacific Command Division of the Current Operations Directorate, and later as executive assistant to the director for operations. He has also served as commander of the Standing Naval Force, Atlantic.
Rear Admiral Richard West, the current oceanographer and navigator of the navy, retired 1 August after 37 years of active naval service. He has been selected to serve as president of the Consortium for Oceanographic Research and Education (CORE), a Washington, D.C.–based association of U.S. oceanographic research institutions, universities, laboratories, and aquaria.
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William Readdy has been named to succeed Frederick Gregory as NASA’s associate administrator for space flight.
The former space shuttle commander and naval aviator has served as deputy associate administrator for space flight. He was to move into his new position after Gregory’s swearing in on 12 August as deputy to NASA Administrator Sean O’Keefe. Gregory was confirmed by the Senate on 1 August.
Gregory is the first deputy administrator for the space agency in a decade.
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