Editor: Jim Elliott
Contributor: Stephanie Kenitzer
Copy Editor: Marcie Bernstein
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The International Association for Urban Climate has been formed to serve the needs of scientists interested in the climatology and meteorology of cities, urban air quality, building climatology, the biometeorology of built areas, atmospheric aspects of urban engineering and design and related areas. Among the objectives of the IAUC will be the organization of the International Conference on Urban Climate. Activities of the Association, which currently has a membership of 370, will be guided by an international board consisting of John Arnfield (United States, Secretary), Arieh Bitan (Israel), Bob Bornstein (United States), Ingegärd Eliasson (Sweden), Sue Grimmond (United States), Helmut Mayer (Germany), Yasuto Nakamura (Japan), Tim Oke (Canada, President), Matthias Roth (Singapore), and James Voogt (Canada). More information about the IAUC is available at http://www.geography.ohio-state.edu/UrbanClimate/. Persons interested in membership (which is free of charge) may join via a Web-based application form at this site.
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With hurricane season hitting its peak period, hurricane forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said they expect normal to slightly above normal activity for the rest of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season. The 9 August update is a slight increase over the May preseason forecast, which called for a normal season.
After only two tropical storms at the start of the peak period, NOAA forecasters are suggesting the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the North Atlantic Ocean could see a total of 9 to 12 tropical storms, of which 6 to 8 may become hurricanes, with 2 to 4 of those becoming major hurricanes by seasons end 30 November. On average, normal to slightly above normal seasons feature 2 to 3 land-falling hurricanes in the United States, and 1 or 2 in the Caribbean.
Dr. Gerry Bell, hurricane and climate specialist at NOAAs Climate Prediction Center, said the prominent climate factors guiding the slight change to the forecast include 1) the absence of both El Niño and La Niña (considered a neutral phase), and 2) ongoing decadal wind and water temperature patterns. These patterns have already established below average vertical wind shear, above average sea surface temperatures, and a favorable midlevel steering flow in the main development region, all of which favor hurricane development over the tropical Atlantic.
With current climate patterns, storms are more likely to become major hurricanes and pose a threat to both the U.S. and the region around the Caribbean Sea, as they move westward across the tropical Atlantic, Bell said.
These conditions are consistent with the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal mode recently discussed by NOAA Hurricane Research Division meteorologists Stan Goldenberg and Dr. Chris Landsea in the 20 July issue of the journal Science. Bell added: The regional anomalies anticipated in the preseason outlook are now somewhat more conducive for Atlantic hurricane activity, thus increasing the probability of an above-average season.
NOAA forecasters said Tropical Storm Allisonresponsible for at least 40 deaths and $5 billion in damages from Texas to Pennsylvania in Juneis a dramatic example of why the nations focus should remain on the impact of a land-falling storm, not just the number of storms that could occur.
The Atlantic hurricane season ends 30 November. Scientists at NOAAs Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, and the Hurricane Research Division prepared this outlook.
For more information online about hurricanes and to view the latest Atlantic hurricane season outlook visit
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Even though Tropical Storm Barrys winds were a few miles an hour shy of hurricane strength, the storm gave hurricane researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration several opportunities to test new technology that may tell them more about wind speed changes and landfall characteristics of tropical cyclones.
Hurricane researchers at NOAAs Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, supporting the U.S. Weather Research Program, are working closely with NOAAs National Hurricane Center to develop new techniques that will provide a better understanding of wind structure and storm intensity changes, plus valuable information on storm track guidance.
Knowing wind speed at ground level when a hurricane makes landfall is of paramount importance to local emergency management personnel. To provide that information, meteorologists at AOML have created H*Wind, a program that visually depicts the wind speeds and denotes in easy-to-read color bands the regions of hurricane and gale force winds around a storm. Hurricane specialists at the hurricane center tried their hand at running H*Wind for the first time during Tropical Storm Barry, focusing on timely analysis and quality control of real-time wind observations. H*Wind is also being used in a poststorm analysis to determine Barrys actual wind speed at landfall.
Being able to accurately predict where a tropical cyclone will make landfall is another key factor to forecasters. For the best measurements, hurricane researchers have developed a technique that identifies the sweet spots in a storm that will yield the most accurate data. Scientists on board NOAAs hurricane surveillance Gulfstream-IV jet used the technique to take measurements of Tropical Storm Barry. Those measurements were incorporated in the models that the National Hurricane Center specialists used to issue landfall forecasts. It is anticipated this technique will provide nearly 15% improvement in the landfall forecast when fully operational.
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Despite its tropical origin, the upper two-thirds of a typical hurricane is made up largely of ice. This month scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, are bringing unique cloud profiling instruments into this mysterious upper realm in a project to help improve hurricane forecasting and modeling.
CAMEX-4, the fourth Convection And Moisture Experiment (CAMEX), is the first of its kind for the U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP), a multiagency effort to reduce the destructive impact nationwide of disastrous weather, particularly hurricanes.
Scientists aboard NASAs DC-8 and ER-2 research aircraft home based at Jacksonville, Florida, Naval Air Station will join satellites and other sensors to analyze the structure and impact of hurricanes at sea and as they hit land. The project runs from 16 August to 24 September.
CAMEX addresses one of the most challenging forecast problems, hurricane landfall, says Cliff Jacobs, program director in NSFs division of atmospheric sciences, which is funding the research. This experiment is particularly important because of the collaboration on a high priority research area of the interagency USWRP.
NCARs Andrew Heymsfield, one of the principal investigators, will fly seven instruments aboard the DC-8 to get the clearest-ever picture of frozen and condensed water within a hurricane. A hurricane might extend 60,000 feet high, but only the bottom 15,000 feet is in the rain phase. The upper 45,000 feet or so is usually ice particles, explains Heymsfield, and thats what were going to be looking at.
The huge swirls of white cloud evident on hurricane satellite photos consist mainly of ice crystals. As water vapor freezes to form ice, it releases vast amounts of latent heat, which helps to drive hurricanes, Heymsfield says. You need to get the ice phase going to really intensify the hurricane. Typical hurricane-hunting flights operate below 20,000 feet, so they obtain only limited information on ice content.
Heymsfields instruments will fly as high as 43 000 feet aboard the DC-8. A sophisticated cloud particle imager shines a tiny laser beam on an array of photo diodes. Ice crystals passing in front of the laser leave a shadow on the array. The resulting photos, taken 40 times each second, show the crystal structure in fine detail. Heymsfield has taken the imager into cirrus clouds, but this will be its first foray into a hurricane. With the help of other sensors that measure overall moisture, Heymsfield and colleagues will study how much water a hurricane deposits in its upper levels and how much dry air it pulls down into the calm, clear eye.
For better forecasts of hurricane landfall and intensification, we need to know how much ice is transported into the upper two-thirds of a hurricane, says Heymsfield.
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In a key step toward improving hurricane prediction, scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, have reproduced in a computer model the finescale structure that drives the birth and strengthening of tropical cyclones.
NCAR scientists Jordan Powers and Christopher Davis presented imagery from their hurricane simulation at the American Meteorological Societys Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes, in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, last month.
The simulation, which used the Pennsylvania State UniversityNCAR Mesoscale Model, Version 5 (MM5), marks the first time a cloud-resolving simulation has been able to reproduce the formation of a tropical cyclone, given only information about atmospheric conditions on a scale much larger than that of the cyclone. The breakthrough points toward future forecasting power that will soon be available. NCAR is part of a team developing the next generation mesoscale model, with more advanced capabilities. The U.S. Air Force, the University of Oklahoma, and NOAAs National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Forecast Systems Laboratory are the other partners in the project. The WRF model is expected to become operational at NCEP in 2004, providing improved guidance for daily weather forecasting a model similar to the MM5, but with more advanced capabilities, that will generate daily weather forecasts for the National Weather Service (NWS) beginning in 2004.
Improved skill in forecasting in a research setting often does not quickly find its way into operational forecast models, says Cliff Jacobs, program director in NSFs division of atmospheric sciences. This research has the best of all possible results: improved forecasting techniques that developed as a result of an investment in research, that likely will quickly make their way into operational models.
For their MM5 experiment, Davis and Powers studied Hurricane Diana, which struck North Carolina in 1984. Diana was chosen because of ample surface data and because a well-defined nontropical low preceded its formation. The MM5 successfully reproduced several stages in Dianas development, from its original state as a nontropical low to its intensification to hurricane status more than a day later.
According to Davis, One of the remaining mysteries about hurricanes is how they form, especially when theyre influenced by midlatitude weather systems that move into the subtropics and tropics. We hope that by analyzing the mechanisms behind storm formation in these simulations, we can make hypotheses of tropical cyclone formation that can be tested using aircraft, radar, and satellite data. We also hope to understand whats needed to predict storm formation in operational weather forecast models.
Computer models used for day-to-day weather prediction have become increasingly adept at projecting a hurricanes motion. Yet even the best models have little skill in predicting intensity, especially the rapid strengthening often noted in the most powerful hurricanes. Part of the problem is that the compact core of a hurricane, including the spiral bands of showers and thunderstorms that gather and focus energy, cant be modeled in sufficient detail on the computers and models used for everyday forecasting.
The new Weather Research and Forecasting Model and more powerful computers will allow for the type of finescale detail in the MM5 to be simulated for daily forecasting. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the University of Oklahoma, and the U.S. Air Force are collaborating with NCAR on the project.
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Andy Weingarten, a meteorologist for a Louisville, Kentucky, energy brokerage firm, has won $50,000 in the first phase of The Aquila Prize, a 3-year weather forecasting competition. The award was made for preparing and making the most accurate long-range seasonal forecasts for the January through April 2001 winter season covering 13 cities across the United States.
Weingarten, a 17-year veteran of the weather forecasting profession, was one of 55 individuals or organizations that entered the competition. Weingartens forecasts were evaluated by Aquila, Inc. (NYSE:ILA), one of the largest energy wholesaling and risk management companies in North America. The contest results were independently verified by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) through its subcontractor, The University of Arizona.
Weingarten, a meteorology graduate from the University of Oklahoma, was a weather reporter for radio and television before joining APB Energy in 1999. Weingarten provides daily weather forecasts and analysis to the energy brokerage firm that buys and sells natural gas, power, and related products in the United States and six other countries. Weingarten also provides meteorological services for APB Energys partner, True Quote, an online energy trading firm.
For the first phase of the scientific competition, participants submitted probabilistic forecasts of heating degree days for Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, New York City, Dallas, Philadelphia, Portland, Tucson, Des Moines, Las Vegas, Nashville, Minneapolis, and Sacramento. Heating degree days are weather parameters used by the energy industry to project winter consumption. Competition participants posted their forecasts on GuaranteedWeather.com, Aquilas one-stop weather risk management portal.
Asked how he prepared his forecast, Weingarten replies: I used a significant number of operational as well as experimental mathematical models. This gave me a qualitative feel for the state of the atmosphere. I translated this into a quantitative degree day forecast. Historical data was used in my evaluations, but it was not a significant input.
The probabilistic heating degree forecasts were verified using a statistical measure known as ranked probability skill score (RPSS). The RPSS compares the skill of the contestants forecast relative to climatology. The actual temperature data for the forecast periods were provided by the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Weingartens RPSS computed over all 13 cities was a 45% improvement over climatology or more than twice as accurate as the competition average. Aquila provided the observations and the forecasts to a team of researchers from The University of Arizona chosen by AMS based on their work in the area of evaluating long-range forecasts. They repeated and confirmed the RPSS calculations to provide independent verification of the Aquila forecast rankings.
The Aquila Prize competition is open to all private sector corporations, university groups and university or federally affiliated laboratories. Rules for the contest were developed in collaboration with the AMS and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Aquila plans to award $300,000 over the 3-year period of the competition.
Aquila, based in Kansas City, is one of the largest energy wholesalers and risk management companies in North America. Aquila is 80% owned by UtiliCorp United, an international energy company with more than 4 million customers in the United States, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. More information about Aquila is available at http://www.Aquila.com.
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Starting with the 2001/02 winter, National Weather Service forecasters will use a new wind chill temperature index, designed to calculate a more accurate reading of how the cold air feels on the human skin.
Since 1945, the United States and Canada have used an index, which relied on observed winds 33 feet above the ground, and focused on how fast the cold temperaturescombined with windsmade water freeze. The new index accounts for the wind effects at face level, and a better calculation for body heat loss. For example, under the old index system, an air temperature of 20°F, with a 15 mph wind, translated into a reading of 5°F below zero. The new index calculation would translate the same conditions to 6°F above zero.
Exposure to cold, biting air for long periods of time is dangerous, said retired General Jack Kelly, director NOAAs National Weather Service. Our main goal was to use modern science in revising the index so that its more accurate and makes the human impact more prominent.
The new index will be based on
For the past year, the National Weather Service, acting on behalf of the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology has led a team of international scientists with the goal of creating an international standard wind chill index among the meteorological community. Last spring, the scientists conducted clinical trials and the results helped to verify and improve the accuracy of the new formula.
A copy of the revised wind chill chart is available at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/windchillchart-2001.pdf.
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NOAA Weather Radio, the nations automated radio weather warning system, will soon have a new voice. The National Weather Service, an agency of the Commerce Departments National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, evaluated 5 voices and reviewed 19 000 Internet survey comments from the public in the effort to find the new voice.
NOAA has awarded Siemens Information and Communication Network of Boca Raton, Florida, a $633,615 contract for the voice improvement. The weather service will begin implementation of the new voices text-to-speech software program early in 2002, following successful testing and integration within the NOAA Weather Radio system.
The weather service first used a computer synthesized voice technology as part of a console replacement system in 1997. Automating NOAA Weather Radio enabled the weather service to send out multiple independent warnings over multiple transmitters simultaneously, allowing speedier delivery of severe weather warnings and more lead time for the public.
As part of the contract, Siemens will team with SpeechWorks International of Boston, to provide software that combines phonetic sounds with natural language modeling.
NOAA Weather Radio, sometimes referred to as the voice of the National Weather Service, is a portable device that enables the public to receive continuous weather broadcasts and hazard alerts directly from local weather forecast offices. Transmitting from a network of 583 stations nationwide, the NOAA Weather Radio can be heard by more than 85% of the U.S. population.
NOAAs National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts, and warnings for the United States and its territories. NWS operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy.
To learn more about NWS, visit http://www.nws.noaa.gov. The old and new voices can be heard on the NOAA Weather Radio Web site at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/newvoice.htm.
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The National Center for Atmospheric Research recently began negotiations to purchase and modify a Gulfstream G-V aircraft for use in wide-ranging environmental research supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) over the coming decades. Later this year NCAR and Gulfstream expect to enter formal negotiations on the $80 million project, which includes aircraft modification and instrument development. NSF is NCARs primary sponsor and the sponsor of the aircraft.
Originally developed for business use, the aircraft was selected by the center for its altitude and distance ranges, payload, and engineering features. Its flight range of a quarter of the earths circumference will enable scientists to carry modern, complex instruments to remote regions important for climate studies, such as the Arctic Circle and the central Pacific Ocean. The planes ability to take complex instrumentation to 50 000 feet will open the door to long-term storm forecasts and allow scientists to investigate flight-level turbulence and aviation safety, the impact of aircraft emissions, the cooling effects of high-altitude cirrus clouds, and other research areas.
Named HIAPER, for High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research, the new aircraft is expected to be on site at NCARs aviation facility by 2003 and ready for its first research flight by 2005. HIAPER will bring the NSF research aircraft fleet up to full strength when it is added to the Electra and the C-130.
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As thousands of acres continue to burn across the western United States, scientists are flying over wildfires in the Pacific Northwest to measure mercury emissions in their smoke. The National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Washington are conducting the flights.
During a wildfire, mercury stored in the foliage and ground litter is released and carried into the atmosphere, says NCAR scientist Hans Friedli. He and colleague Lawrence Radke are conducting experiments in the laboratory as well as in research flights over wildfires and prescribed burns. Scientists are trying to understand the global sources of atmospheric mercury, as well as how much ends up in the food chain after deposition on land and water. Friedli and Radkes research provides one more piece in the global inventory puzzle.
Gaseous elemental mercury in the atmosphere travels the globe for about a year before being deposited on land or water. About 6500 tons, all well mixed, are circulating at any one time. About half the atmospheric mercury got there from natural sources (in soil, oceans, and volcanoes) and the other half through human activity. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that 41 tons are contributed annually from U.S. coal-fired plants. Mercury is transformed in the atmosphere through chemical processes and then rains or falls out as wet or dry deposition to the surface. For trees, wet deposition is most important, says Friedli. Mercury is picked up by the surfacesthe leaves or needlesand it stays there. At least until those trees burn.
Friedli and Radke conducted laboratory tests to find out how much mercury a fire could release. For the experiment, forest samples from across the continental United States were set alight at the U.S. Forest Service Fire Science Laboratorys burn facility in Missoula, Montana. The teams sensors immediately detected mercury, and plenty of it. All samples released nearly all the mercury they had storedfrom 94% to 99%. All the coniferous and deciduous samples contained mercury at levels ranging from 14 to 71 nanograms per gram of fuel (a nanogram is one trillionth of a gram; about 28 grams make an ounce).
The team extrapolated their findings to global biomass burning from wildfires and from human activities, such as clearing land for agriculture. They estimated the contribution at up to 800 tons per year, or 25% of all anthropogenic sources of airborne mercury. Their work with Julia Lu (Meteorological Service of Canada) is described in a forthcoming paper in Geophysical Research Letters. The lab experiment and this summers flights are funded by EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute).
The mercury studies grew out of Friedli and Radkes NSF-sponsored research with colleagues at NCAR to understand and predict the erratic, deadly behavior of wildfires. To develop better forecasts of wildfire behavior for firefighters, the researchers are combining computer models with observations from infrared cameras.
Friedli and Radke will aim ground-based sensors at a prescribed burn in Prince Albert National Park in Saskatchewan, Canada, this September. Last summer, when the team flew over a wildfire in Quebec, the mercury emissions were higher than in the lab experiment, presumably because mercury in real fires is also emitted from heated soil, says Friedli, a source not yet considered in our experiments.
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After a 20-day journey and nine motor firings, GOES-12, the nations newest environmental satelliteequipped with the latest solar flare warning technologysafely reached orbit 22 300 miles above the equator with an eye toward North and South America on 13 August. The spacecraft sent its first images on 17 August.
The NOAA geostationary satellite was renamed GOES-12 after reaching its operational orbit. Launched as GOES-M from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida, on 23 July, the satellite is the last in the current series of five advanced NOAA weather satellites operated by NOAA and designed to improve forecasting of earth and space weather. GOES-12 will remain in operational storage until called upon to replace one of the two older geostationary satellites that could expire in the next year or two.
GOES-12 is the first geostationary satellite to have a sophisticated operational instrument for detecting solar storms. The solar X-ray imager is the most advanced instrument of its kind, able to take a full and detailed snapshot of the suns atmosphere each minute. The first test image is expected on 29 August.
The X-ray images from GOES-12 will be used by NOAA and the U.S. Air Force to forecast the intensity and speed of solar disturbances that could destroy satellite electronics, disrupt long-distance radio communications or surge power grids. The imager enables forecasters to better protect billions of dollars worth of commercial and government assets in space and on the ground.
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NASA awarded funding for 11 new contracts for technology development of innovative earth science remote sensing instruments under its Instrument Incubator Program (IIP).
The objective of the program is to invest in new and innovative technologies that could lead to smaller, less expensive and more efficient flight instruments.
The technologies selected include active and passive techniques for measuring global carbon dioxide, the buildup of which may be a contributor to the global increase in the greenhouse effect. Also selected are instrument technologies for microwave radiometry and advanced radars to measure global precipitation, soil moisture and sea surface salinity, leading to a more accurate understanding of climate variability.
In addition, investments will be made in instrument technologies for the measurement of far-infrared thermal radiation, an emerging science area not previously explored, with the potential to better understand the earths radiation balance.
Instrument technologies leading to the potential measurement of tropospheric ozone and other gases from space will be advanced by investments in FabryPerot interferometer technologies. Geomagnetic measurements enabled from investments in magnetometer technologies can provide a means to study the structure and dynamics of the earths interior, leading to better utilization of natural resources including water and land use and the mitigation of natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanoes, flooding, sea level change, and severe storms.
NASA received 64 proposals for technology development efforts and was able to select 11 for funding. The total funds made available for these investigations averages nearly $1 million per year for 3 years or a total of approximately $29.5 million.
The 11 proposals focus on near term investment to support high-priority measurements in the areas of
The investigations selected by NASAs Office of Earth Sciences are
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Lisa Shaffer has been named executive director of the University of California Revelle Program on Climate Science and Policy. Shaffer is the director of policy programs and international relations at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego.
The UC Revelle Program has been established to strengthen interaction between scientists engaged in advancing the understanding of earths climate system and decision makers in government and the private sector applying climate science to societal needs. By expanding the collaboration among researchers studying natural science, economics, policy, and public health aspects of climate change, the program can magnify the value of research far beyond the academic environment. Scientists involved in this interdisciplinary program are taking direct action to provide scientific and economic information and research results to key international climate negotiators, policy makers, and decision makers.
Shaffer joined Scripps Institution of Oceanography in 1998. She is responsible for international cooperation and policy issues for Scripps. Her duties include establishment and management of new international programs designed to position Scripps at the forefront of major international scientific initiatives. She collaborates with government agencies, scientists, and institutional leaders around the world to advance the concept of an integrated global observing strategy, to link science with societal needs, and to promote international scientific programs. She also is an adjunct professor at UCSDs Graduate School of International Relations & Pacific Studies, where she teaches a course on sustainable development.
Shaffer earned a bachelors degree in 1974 from the University of Michigan and a Ph.D. degree in 1994 from the George Washington University in political science, with an emphasis on public policy, international relations, and science and technology policy. Shaffer has worked on international cooperation in earth observation from space and related data policy issues for more than 20 years. She has served in various positions in NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and in the private sector.
Prior to joining Scripps, Shaffer was director of external relations for NASAs Mission to Planet Earth program, the worlds largest environmental science program. She provided international and interagency support for NASAs earth science program and for overall NASA relations with Asia, Australia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East.
Additional information on the University of California Revelle Program on Climate Science and Policy is available at http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/revelle/.
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Roger W. Daley, a UCAR distinguished senior scientist located at the Naval Research Laboratory, in Monterey, California, died on 29 August 2001. Daley was internationally known for his work in developing numerical models and atmospheric data assimilation. Daley began his career as a weather forecaster at the Canadian Meteorological Service. A native of Purley, England, he joined the Naval Research Lab in 1995. His work in developing new operational models and algorithms used in the models earned him several awards including the AMS Jule G. Charney Award and the Canadian Meteorological Societys Presidents Prize. Daley was a fellow of the AMS and the Royal Society of Canada.
Lester Machta, longtime NOAA Air Resources Laboratory Director, died 1 September. In 1948, the Weather Bureau formed a Special Projects Section to engage in research utilizing meteorology to assist the emerging atomic energy program. During the early stages of the Cold War, many of these developments were involved in weapons testing. Lester Machta accepted the directorship of the unit in 1948 and was joined by four other meteorologists. The SPS, and its successor, ARL, were among the first organizations to use meteorology to interpret air quality measurements and to contribute to assessment of hazards from the release of radionuclides and other pollutants to the atmosphere.
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