Editor: Jim Elliott
Contributor:Stephanie Kenitzer
Copy Editor: Anne Siefken
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More than 100 of the nation’s top forecasting, emergency management, public policy, media experts, and heads of industry brought their knowledge and experience to The AMS–The Weather Channel Forum on Hurricane Preparedness and Response, held at Washington’s National Press Club on 6–7 June.
The workshop, developed by AMS’s Atmospheric Policy Program headed by Dick Greenfield, was considered the first of its kind to address policies that would improve hurricane preparedness and response. Findings and recommendations of the workshop are expected to be published in mid-July.
The two-day program conducted three panel discussions: Forecast Considerations, Media Issues, and Response Strategies. It also featured an opening address by Dr. D. James Baker, NOAA administrator; a keynote speech by James Lee Witt, FEMA director; dinner speeches by Governor Jim Hodges of South Carolina and Rep. Johnny Isakson of Georgia; and luncheon speeches by Dr. John Clizbe, American Red Cross vice president, and John Kelly Jr., NWS director.
Rick Anthes, president of the University Center for Atmospheric Research, chaired the Forecast Considerations panel, which included Russell Elsberry, professor, Naval Postgraduate School; T.N. Krishnamurti, professor, The Florida State University; Steve Lyons, tropical specialist, The Weather Channel; and Max Mayfield, director, National Hurricane Center.
The panel focused on: What is needed to improve the accuracy of hurricane forecasts—new platforms, such as unmanned aircraft; new forecast products, such as refined statistical approaches; improved numerical forecast system, such as the superensemble approach? What are the priorities for improving the forecasts? What policy changes are needed to make improvements available as soon as possible?
Larry Grossman, former director of NBC News, led the Media Issues panel, whose members included Ronnie Goodstein, director of public relations, Pinellas County, Florida; John Hope, hurricane specialist, The Weather Channel; Bob Ryan, chief meteorologist, WRC/NBC4, Washington, D.C.; and Jack Williams, weather editor, USA Today.
Primary focus questions of this panel included: how can hurricane forecasts and associated warnings be presented to the public in a responsible manner, thereby avoiding the "hype" problem? How can the media avoid conveying conflicting information about hurricane predictions and response strategies? What policies are needed to assure that official public forecasts are used by the media during weather emergencies without unduly restricting the full flow of information from private sources, that is, resolving public–private prediction issues?
John Copenhaver, FEMA southeastern regional director, chaired the Response Strategies panel. Panelists included Jay Baker, professor, The Florida State University; Walter Maestri, director, Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, Department of Emergency Management; Eric Tolbert, director, North Carolina Emergency Preparedness Division; and John Wilson, director of public safety, Lee County, Florida.
The focus questions of this panel included: what additional forecast products or services could assist in making the response decisions? How can the media assist more effectively in conveying important response information to the public? What policy changes at the federal, state, and local levels would enable more effective hurricane response decisions?
The forum concluded with an open discussion on findings and recommendations, chaired by Dick Hallgren, executive director emeritus of AMS. Other panel members included the panel chairpersons and Jim Rasmussen, former director, NOAA’s Environmental Research Laboratories, and Mark Fernau, AMS technical editor, who served as rapporteurs.
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Timothy C. Benner, of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences program at the University of Colorado, has been selected as the first AMS/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) congressional science fellow. The AMS Congressional Science Fellowship is part of a program administered by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).
Benner has been a research assistant at the University Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences since 1995. During that time he also served as an aircraft observer on the C-130, FIRE Arctic Clouds Experiment in Fairbanks, Alaska. He has taught both graduate and undergraduate level courses at the university. A student member of the AMS and the American Geophysical Union, Benner earned his Ph.D. in atmospheric science in May 2000. He earned his master’s degree in astrophysical, planetary, and atmospheric sciences at the University of Colorado, and his bachelor’s degree in physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His work has earned him numerous awards including a NASA Earth System Science Fellowship and the AMS Global Change Scholarship.
The AMS and UCAR decided to sponsor a Congressional Fellow because the demands on Congress to establish sound public policy on scientific issues have never been greater. The AAAS program places highly qualified accomplished scientists, engineers, and other professionals within offices of individual Members of Congress and committees for a 1-yr assignment. Fellows perform in much the same way as regular staff members. The Fellows bring to the Congress new insights, fresh ideas, extensive knowledge, and education in a variety of disciplines. The Fellows are provided with the opportunity to make a significant public service contribution, and obtain firsthand experience in the legislative and political process.
Through the program, Fellows gain a perspective, which, ideally, should help them understand how the research community can effectively communicate with one another on important national policy issues. The Fellow may have the opportunity to participate in and make significant contributions to public policy within the Congress, including issues like water policy, global warming, energy policy, defense technologies, pollution, communications technologies, and many more.
The AMS Fellow is supported with funds provided jointly by the AMS and UCAR. Together, UCAR and the AMS represent an atmospheric science community consisting of over 20 000 researchers and meteorologists in universities, government, and private industry.
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Through the efforts of the Society’s Atmospheric Policy Program, the AMS is taking an active role in the new Natural Hazards Caucus Working Group recently formed to support the Congressional Natural Hazards Caucus. AMS Senior Fellow Bill Hooke participated in the caucus’ initial forum on Capitol Hill on 21 June.
The Natural Hazards Caucus is a new initiative cochaired by Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK) and Senator John Edwards (D-NC). The goal of the caucus is to provide ways the local, state, and federal government can better prepare for and help mitigate the costs of natural disasters. The caucus provides members with an opportunity to demonstrate their concern and commitment to reducing hazard losses.
The caucus was formed because jurisdiction for natural hazards programs is spread among many committees in Congress. Each committee only handles a piece of the overall efforts to prevent and mitigate natural disasters. A caucus can provide the "big picture" to interested lawmakers and their staff, and give them the opportunity to see how the issues that fall within individual committee jurisdictions fit within a larger national effort. Typical caucus events will include Capitol Hill luncheon briefings, roundtable discussions, special forums, receptions, and events targeted to a subgroup of the caucus.
The Natural Hazards Caucus Work Group is an information network of professional, scientific, and engineering societies, relief organizations, higher education associations, institutions of higher learning, trade associations, and private companies. The work group has come together with a common desire to reduce the toll—both human and financial—of natural hazards and to enhance the nation's ability to recover from those events. The group plans to work together to help our nation become more resilient to natural hazards.
The primary goal of the Natural Hazards Caucus Work Group is to develop a wider understanding within Congress that reducing the risks and costs of natural disasters is a public value. That requires educating members and staff about the costs of natural disasters to their districts and states, and the benefits their constituents will realize through greater efforts to understand, prevent, and mitigate natural disasters. The work group supports the efforts of the Congressional Natural Hazards Caucus.
Additional information on the caucus and the working group is available on the Internet at http://www.agiweb.org/workgrouphttp://www.agiweb.org/workgroup
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The American Meteorological Society was one of the hosts for the recent NATO/CCMS International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application. The meeting was part of NATO’s Committee on the Challenges of Modern Society (CCMS), originally established in 1969. The subject of air pollution was from the start one of the priority problems under study within the framework of various pilot studies undertaken by this committee. The organization of a periodic conference dealing with air pollution modeling and its application has become one of the main activities within the pilot study relating to air pollution.
The technical meeting was held in Boulder, Colorado, during 15–19 May 2000. This meeting was jointly organized by the Riso National Laboratory of Denmark, the EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory, and by the AMS.
The meeting was attended by 135 participants from 30 countries representing NATO Alliance, NATO Cooperative Partner, and non-NATO affiliations. There were three invited presentations, 75 scientific papers, and 37 poster presentations. An invited banquet speech was given by Dr. Norine Noonan, head of the EPA Office of Research and Development. The high scientific standard of the conference is maintained by grading of the submitted abstracts by all 15 members of the Scientific Committee. The papers and the poster abstracts will be published by Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers in the NATO/CCMS book series.
The session topics during the four-day meeting were: Role of Atmospheric Models in Air Pollution Policy and Abatement Strategies; Integrated Regional Modelling; Global and Long-Range Transport; Regional Air Pollution and Climate; New Developments; and Model Assessment and Verification.
The countries participating included Albania, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, and Yugoslavia.
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Several science agencies are facing major budget cuts if current House appropriations bills become law. The following is a brief summary.
In February, the administration proposed a 17.3% increase in funding for the National Science Foundation (NSF) in FY01. Since investments in science and technology play a significant role in the nation's economic health and prosperity, such an increase is a historic first step in strengthening this important investment in the future. The new funding was requested to strengthen core research programs and to give impetus to major new and ongoing initiatives that will pave the way for tomorrow's scientific discoveries and technological progress. Important initiatives include the Information Technology Research program, Biocomplexity in the Environment, Nanoscale Science and Technology, Twenty-First Century Workforce, Earthscope, and Terascale Computing Systems.
The House subcommittee mark up for the National Science Foundation, however, has reduced the proposed 17.3% increase to between 4% and 5%. The proposed House bill on NSF was not able to fully fund the request due to 302 (b) allocation limitations and also had some restrictive language on terascale computing. Many disciplines are limited in their pace of progress by the need for high performance computational capabilities at and even beyond the terascale level.
Late on 26 June, the House passed a $2.2 billion FY01 NOAA funding bill, approximately $100 million below current funding levels. The administration had requested $2.9 billion in FY01 budget authority for NOAA, a 20% or $500 million increase over current levels. Instead, the House approved only $2.23 billion budget, $530 million below the president's request.
On the House floor, Rep. Sam Farr (D-CA) offered an amendment to restore NOAA's funding to this year's level. It never came to a vote as Appropriations Subcommittee chairman Rep. Harold Rogers (R-KY) ruled the amendment out of order because it did not provide for budget offsets. The California Democrat described the severe cuts as "whacking" NOAA.
In other floor action, the House 217–181 accepted an amendment offered by Rep. John Olver (D-MA) stripping the bill of language opposing funding for implementing the Kyoto Global Climate Change treaty until the treaty's ratification by the Senate. The Kyoto language has been offered and accepted in the full Appropriations Committee (Chair C.W. Bill Young, R-FL) by Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-MI). The Knollenberg amendment could have adversely affected NOAA's global climate change research program.
The administration sent a strong letter to Appropriations Committee Chair Rep. C. W. Bill Young (R-FL) voicing a host of objections to the bill. It stated that “failure to provide inflationary cost increases for core programs, along with other reductions in NOAA, could lead to staffing cuts of up to 1000 employees. NOAA customers would receive reduced services—including nautical charts, long-term climate and weather data, and fishery stock assessments. Reductions to the National Weather Service (NWS) request would jeopardize NWS base operations and would limit radiosonde replacements, potentially risking upper air observations...."
The administration also strongly recommends full funding for the climate services initiative, the Clean Water Action Plan, the Global Disaster Information Network, the GLOBE program, NOAA weather radio, polar weather satellites, the Minority Serving Institutions initiative, and NOAA's investments in improved financial management.
Senate actions on the FY01 NOAA funding bill by the Appropriations Committee and Subcommittee is expected in mid-July.
The House Appropriations Committee marked up the FY01 VA/HUD and Independent Agencies appropriations bill on 7 June recommending a budget of $13 716.6 million for the year, an increase of 0.8% over the agency FY00 budget, but 2.3% less than the administration’s FY01 request. Subsequently, the bill was passed, with some amendments, by the full House on 21 June and sent to the Senate.
The floor amendments removed $55 million from the committee recommendation, deleting $25 million from Human Space Flight and $30 million from the Science, Aeronautics, and Technology account. The reductions are general ones, the specific categories of which to be determined later, according to a NASA spokesperson.
A breakdown of the committee recommendation shows:
Human Space Flight would receive $5.5 billion, equal to the budget request and $12.0 million (0.2%) more than FY00 funding. The appropriation includes human space flight activities, including development of the international space station and operation of the space shuttle. It also includes support of planned cooperative activities with Russia, upgrades to the performance and safety of the space shuttle, and required construction projects in direct support of the space station and space shuttle programs.
Space Science would receive $2.4 billion, $20.0 million (0.8%) less than the request, but $186.0 million (8.5%) over current funding.
Life and Microgravity Sciences and Applications would receive $329.0 million, $25.0 million (8.2%) greater than requested and $54.3 million (19.8%) greater than current funding. The increase, the committee noted, is to fund ground-based investigators to prepare for space flight opportunities, particularly in the area of life sciences.
Earth Sciences would receive $1405.8 million, $37.6 million (2.6%) less than FY00 funding, but the same as requested. The Earth Science program was restructured this year to display the resources devoted to research and technology requirements better. As a result, the Earth Science requirements have been allocated to three categories: Earth Science/Program Science; Applications Commercialization and Education (ACE), and Technology Infusion.
In announcing the new structure last March, NASA issued a statement that read, “In concert with other agencies, countries, the global research community, and commercial partners, the Earth Science Enterprise is providing the scientific foundation for complex policy choices that lie ahead.
“To that end, NASA is developing a series of spacecraft, airborne instruments and ground-based field experiments to study our planet, a vast database management system to catalogue the subsequent findings and an active research program to utilize these tools.”
Academic Programs would receive $105.4 million, an increase of $5.4 million (5.4%) over the request. The increase is designated for the EPSCoR program (Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research), returning it to the FY00 funding level of $10.0 million.
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A White House report warns that America’s technological prowess might not continue without stronger programs to augment the nation’s scientific, technical, and engineering workforce.
The 34-page report, entitled “Ensuring a Strong U.S. Scientific, Technical and Engineering Workforce in the 21st Century,” was prepared by the National Science and Technology Council.
In the cover letter of the report, Assistant to the President Neal Lane wrote: “The principal conclusion is that it is imperative that members of all ethnic and gender groups participate at increasing rates if a strong scientific, technical, and engineering (ST&E) workforce is to be ensured.”
There are two major reasons for this: one is demographic and the other is the fierce international competition for high-technology workers who currently reduce employment shortages in U.S. industry.
Projections indicate that non-Hispanic white males, which are a large proportion of the U.S. scientific and engineering workforce, will decline significantly as a percentage of the total American population, while the proportion of African-Americans and Hispanics in the U.S. population will increase.
“We will have to do a much better job of growing our own talent,” Lane said.
There are four major conclusions in the report, all of which pertain to the federal government:
The report is available on the Internet at http://www.whitehouse.gov/WH/EOP/OSTP.html.workforcerpt.pdf.
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Funding will be restored for the nation’s only three sites that monitor acid levels in clouds, according to a 2 June announcement from the Environmental Protection Agency’s regional office in New York.
“These sites provide a real picture of what’s going on in the atmosphere,” said Bob Perciasepe, EPA’s assistant administrator. “That’s very helpful in keeping a long-term record of the acid rain (prevention) effort.”
The monitoring site in New York’s Adirondack Mountains was in operation in June, with complete funding provided by the EPA. Details for restart of Virginia’s Shenandoah Mountains site were still being worked. The third site, in Tennessee’s Great Smoky Mountains, never stopped running because other agencies provided money, according to the Associated Press. Funding for the Virginia and Tennessee sites will come from the EPA headquarters and regional offices, the states, and NOAA.
EPA officials noted that the 15-yr-old program was always meant to be temporary and had served its purpose of producing data that scientists could use to track acid rain.
Acid rain occurs when sulfur dioxide and nitrogen-bearing gases combine with water vapor in the atmosphere, creating acidic sulfate, and nitrate solutions.
While calcium and other minerals in the soil can neutralize some of the acid, the large amounts of acid rain over the last century have resulted in acidic lakes and steams, harming plant and animal life.
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The uncertain beginnings, the accomplishments, and the future of the National Science Foundation (NSF) were outlined during the recent AGU spring meeting in Washington, D.C.
The special session, titled “NSF At 50: Celebrating Geophysical Research and Its Societal Benefits,” featured presentations by Jack D. Fellows, vice president of UCAR; Tom Malone, former president of AGU; and Margaret Leinen, associate director of geosciences at NSF.
Fellows took the audience chronologically through the early stages of the agency’s formation to its current level of activity. He said the idea began with Vannevar Bush, President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s de facto science advisor, who in 1945 proposed the formation of the National Research Foundation. President Harry Truman established NSF in 1950. He said, however, its growth was slowed down by the Korean War. Funding for the agency increased following the launch of Sputnik in 1957 and its growth resumed after Korea to continue through the 1990s.
He said the agency’s first appropriation in 1952 was $3.5 million. It supported 535 predoc and 38 postdoc fellowships. In 2000, he said, the budget was $3.9 billion, and the agency considered 28 000 proposals, of which one in three was funded. Approximately 200 000 persons are directly engaged in NSF-supported activities and millions more indirectly, he explained.
Between 1952 and 2000, he explained, roughly $64 billion has been appropriated to the agency and well over 500 000 proposals had been received. The investment in NSF has been quite beneficial to the nation’s citizens in terms of return on the dollar, he said.
In conclusion, he urged scientists to be “more vocal” on behalf of research and development. “We must be clear of what we want,” he said, “and how we get there.”
Malone spoke on “A New Vision, Strategy and Set of Partnerships For A New Era.”
“We have developed from a ‘Golden Age’ to a ‘Knowledgeable Age,’” he said. During its early years, he explained, NSF struggled, but by 1955–56, with the help of the International Geophysical Year and an increased budget, it was able to bring about a change of attitude toward research, with “striking advances” in the physical and other sciences and in technology.
He proposed a Western Hemisphere partnership to sustain the progress that has been made in research. Within reach, he said, is a “society in which all of the basic human needs and an equitable share of human wants can be met by successive generations while maintaining a healthy, physically attractive, and biologically productive environment.”
Leinen, a marine geologist, used as her theme, “The Best Is Yet to Come” and outlined how the agency is “on the verge of a new revolution in its ability to come to grips with predictability.”
The agency, she explained, has seen two revolutions, one with computers and one with satellites. She then reviewed some of the observation systems that will help in the predictability revolution, in the atmosphere and in the oceans.
She pointed out advances that have occurred in earth and atmospheric sciences, including short-term and long-term capabilities to provide warnings of severe weather events, prediction of El Niño; in nanotechnology; in information technology, and implications of the Internet, which she predicted will have 900 million users by 2006.
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FMA Research, Inc., is helping a multiagency project monitor thunderstorms on the High Plains by providing low-light optical recording at night of storm-top electrical phenomena, such as jets and sprites. The Severe Thunderstorms Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS) is being conducted between 22 May and 16 July 2000 over the High Plains, some 200 km–400 km east of FMA Research's Yucca Ridge Field Station near Fort Collins, Colorado (http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/community/steps.html) (see June 2000 story).
This large, multiagency program has deployed a variety of observing systems to characterize the dynamical, microphysical, and electrical features of storms, with a special emphasis on those generating significant cloud-to ground lightning. Of particular interest is the first full-scale deployment of the New Mexico Tech 3D Lighting Mapping Array and numerous electric field sensors.
FMA Research's Senior Scientist, Dr. Walter Lyons, is directing efforts to monitor sprites, blue jets, and elves occurring above storms in and near the STEPS domain. These still-mysterious flashes that occur between 40 km and 100 km above large thunderstorms are being tracked using special cameras and light sensitive devices.
Scientists will then verify the hypothesis that the prime generators of sprites are positive cloud-to-ground lightning flashes with large charge moments and unusual continuing current characteristics.
During STEPS, daily sprite forecasts and nowcasts (during actual observing periods) will be posted on the Yucca Ridge Web site (http://www.FMA-Research.com). Cooperating with the Yucca Ridge program, which is sponsored by the National Science Foundation, will be onsite investigators from Stanford University and the Space Dynamics Lab of Utah State University.
Offsite collaborators, conducting remote sensing monitoring using extremely low-frequency radio emissions associated with sprites and elves, are Tel Aviv University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the University of Frankfurt.
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The U.S. Global Change Research Program has released for public comment a draft report analyzing the potential impacts of global climate change on the United States. The report, to be presented to the president and Congress following final review, was prepared by a team of scientists from government, academia, and the private sector.
The report, Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, provides a detailed look at the possible impacts of global warming on the United States over the next 100 years. AMS Senior Fellow Bob Corell played an important role in this major initiative.
Among its key findings, the draft report indicates that continued growth in worldwide emissions is likely to increase average temperatures across the United States by 5°–10°F by 2100; impacts such as heavier precipitation and increased drought will vary widely from region to region; some natural ecosystems are likely to disappear entirely and others may be severely disrupted; changes in rain and snowfall patterns could affect the availability of fresh water; and crop productivity is likely to rise nationally, although regional cropping patterns may change significantly.
Regions examined in the draft report are the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, Great Plains, West, Pacific Northwest, Alaska, Native Homelands, and Islands. Specific sectors examined are Agriculture, Human Health, Forests, Coastal Zones, and Water Resources.
The USGCRP was authorized by Congress in 1990 to coordinate research among agencies of the federal government, and was directed by Congress to conduct periodic assessments of the effects of global change on the United States. To prepare the draft report, USGCRP assembled a National Assessment Synthesis Team made up of leading scientists from federal agencies, major universities, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations. The team conducted its own analyses and drew on hundreds of published scientific reports. Hundreds of leading climate scientists and thousands of stakeholders participated in the assessment process, which included 20 regional workshops to identify important questions and issues of concern.
The draft report was extensively peer-reviewed by independent scientists, and underwent a detailed technical review by federal agencies. The writing and review of the report was overseen by an independent review board appointed by the President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology.
The draft report is posted on the Internet for a 60-day public comment period. After the public comment period is completed, the report will undergo final revision before publication and submittal to the president and Congress later this year.
The draft report can be viewed on the Web at http://www.gcrio.org/NationalAssessment/.
The report is being released in draft form, as required by Congress, and that its conclusions and analyses may be refined or modified based on input received as part of the public.
The USGCRP is funding more detailed analyses of 16 regions and 5 sectors as part of the overall assessment process. The regional reports are being prepared by academic institutions with USGCRP funding. Teams that are cochaired by agency and academic experts are preparing the sectoral reports. Each regional and sectoral team has independent authority over the content of and the review processes for its report.
Three regional assessment reports—Pacific Northwest, Alaska, and the mid-Atlantic—have been published. Regional reports from the Great Lakes, Great Plains, and Southwest are expected in the next few months. Other reports are still being drafted.
The executive summary of the Human Health sector report was published in the April issue of Environmental Health Perspectives. The Agriculture, Coastal/Marine, Water Resources, and Forest sector reports are still undergoing review.
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NOAA unveiled a new generation of climate observing stations at the North Carolina Arboretum, Asheville, North Carolina, on June 28. The climate station is the first in a network of automated climate stations called the U.S. Climate Reference Network.
The network will potentially consist of 500 climate stations around the country designed for climate monitoring and for placing current climate anomalies into historical perspective. The stations will monitor temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed. Hourly observations of these variables will be transmitted in near-real time, and the data and information from the station will be distributed by the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville.
"The goal of the network is to provide future long-term observations of temperature and precipitation that can be coupled to past long-term observations," said Rosina Bierbaum of the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy. "In this way, we can detect present and future climate change."
Tom Karl, director of the climate center, noted, "In 1999 the U.S. National Academy of Sciences asked whether the nation was making measurements, collecting data, and making it available in a way that would enable scientists to increase our understanding of natural and human-induced climate change. Our response was that improvements were needed, and we recommended the development of the Climate Reference Network. This network will provide the United States with a reference network that meets the requirements of the Global Climate Observing System."
The unveiling took place during the World Botanic Gardens Congress, a major gathering of international plant conservation and horticultural experts because conservationists, plant ecologists, and gardeners are intimately dependent on the ability to monitor weather conditions and predict future trends. The station at the North Carolina Arboretum will feature an interactive computer kiosk in the Visitor Education Center. It will offer visitors the opportunity to access weather and climate information.
More information about the Climate Reference Network, is available at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/climate/research/crn/index.html.
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The nation’s spring season of March–May was the warmest on record, according to statistics compiled by NOAA scientists at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina.
The U.S. national spring season temperatures averaged 55.5°F, 0.4°F warmer than the previous record set in 1910, according to preliminary data. That was 3.3°F warmer than the 1895–1999 long-term mean temperature of 52.2°F, according to NOAA officials.
For the 3-month period, more than 64% of the country averaged much warmer than normal, while less than 1% averaged much cooler than normal.
During this spring season, officials noted, every state in the continental United States was warmer than its long-term average. Texas had its warmest spring on record. New Mexico had its second warmest spring since 1895, and Nevada had its third warmest spring on record. Twenty additional states ranked within the top ten warmest spring seasons on record.
The extremely warm temperatures contributed to worsening drought conditions in many areas of the country, officials explained. Parts of the southeast, Midwest, and southwest continue to experience severe to extreme drought, causing crop damage and creating the need for water rationing in many areas.
Twelve states averaged drier than normal for the spring season, statistic showed. Florida reported its fourth driest spring on record, while Missouri had its eighth driest spring since 1895.
With an average 5-month temperature of 48.5°F, the year-to-date, January–May, also is the warmest such period on record, officials said. The old record of 47.4°F was set in 1986. For the January–May period, more than 76% of the country was much warmer than normal, while less than 1% of the country was much cooler than normal.
For the year-to-date, every state in the continental United States was warmer than its long-term average. Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas realized their warmest period on record, while Colorado, Nebraska, Nevada, Oklahoma, and Utah had their second warmest on record. Twenty-one other states ranked within their 10 warmest ever.
Overall dryness persisted in the southern tier of states and portions of the Mississippi Valley, according to the statistics. It was the third driest January–May period on record for Florida, eighth driest for Mississippi, and 10th driest for Louisiana. In all, 14 states were drier than normal for the period. For the 48 contiguous states, January–May was the 35th driest such period since 1895.
Although many areas suffered extremely dry conditions throughout the first five months of the year, the northeast received much above normal precipitation. New York noted its second wettest such period on record, and Vermont had its third wettest January–May period.
Globally, the March–May period was the 24th consecutive period in which temperatures were warmer than average1880–1999 long-term mean over the Northern Hemisphere, the report noted. The combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly of +0.86°F tied 1990 as the second warmest, 1.73°F above average.
The only March–May season with higher temperatures occurred during the 1997/1998 El Niño episode, the report indicated. As in recent seasons, temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere north of 20°N remained abnormally high, while temperatures in the Tropics (20°N–20°S) continued to be held down by the persistence of the cold phase of El Niño (La Niña), officials noted.
Satellite data indicates that, within the Tropics, the average temperature in the lower half of the atmosphere was the second coldest on record for the March–May season, -0.85°F below the 1979–98 average. Conversely, the report noted, in the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics (90°N–20°N), the average temperature was +0.59°F above the 20-yr average, making March–May 2000 the fifth warmest such period within this region.
Primarily because of the much colder than normal temperatures in the Tropics, the globally averaged temperature in the lower half of the atmosphere was –0.07°F below average, continuing the trend of near-record surface temperatures with much more moderate temperatures aloft, the report noted.
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On the heels of the warmest spring on record in the United States, most of the nation can expect a summer sequel that promises warmer-than-normal temperatures according to the latest forecast from NOAA's National Weather Service.
The National Weather Service's summer forecast calls for higher temperatures than normal across the United States, particularly in the southeast, the southwest, and the Midwest. La Niña, which has dominated global weather patterns for the past two years, is expected to linger into fall, contributing to the expected warmer, drier conditions in these sections of the country.
To help areas of the country prepare for the potential heat waves, the NWS has unveiled an “Excessive Heat Outlook” product that predicts the likelihood of a deadly heat wave up to two weeks in advance. The system is designed to provide public health officials and emergency managers early warning so they can get heat relief plans in motion, officials explained.
The day in, day out heat wave with no relief in sight has overtaken in the last decade flooding as the nation’s biggest weather-related killer. The heat wave forecast is for days that have an average day–night heat index that factors humidity and air temperature of 85°F for at least three days out of five.
Statistics show that heat kills an average of 193 persons a year, compared with 99 for floods, 58 for lightning, 57 for tornadoes, 26 for cold, and 14 for hurricanes, according to the NWS. Those deaths are directly related to the weather. When heat is considered an indirect factor, such as heat-induced heart attacks, as many as 2000 people a year die from it.
A 17-day heat wave in Chicago killed 465 persons in July 1995. That summer heat killed 1021 people across the United States.
The information is available on the Web for use as a guidance tool at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/hi_outlook.html.
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The National Weather Service has released its service assessment for Hurricane Floyd, which battered the U.S. East Coast from 14–17 September 1999. Service assessments are a routine internal review of National Weather Service operations during major weather events.
Hurricane Floyd brought torrential rains and record floods to the East Coast, from the Carolinas to New England. The deadliest storm to hit U.S. shores in more than 25 years, Hurricane Floyd underscored the dangers of inland flooding as a major threat from land-falling storms. The hurricane claimed 56 lives and left damages estimated between $4.5 billion to more than $6 billion.
According to the survey, the forecast of Hurricane Floyd was the most accurate forecast track ever issued by the National Weather Service, which issued 25 forecasts during the life of the hurricane. The 48-h track forecast was within 84 miles, compared with the average track error for previous storms of 240 miles. The service assessment provides details on the National Weather Service's accuracy and coordination and communication between local weather forecast offices and emergency management officials.
The service assessment is available at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om.
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Massive underwater eruptions of gas off the coast of Virginia are the likely cause of rifts in the ocean floor, bolstering theories that tidal waves someday could strike the mid-Atlantic coast, according to researchers.
Following a two-week research mission at sea, three scientists announced in late May that they were surprised by the volume of gas they discovered along a 25-mile stretch of the continental shelf east of the Chesapeake Bay. Although they had not determined the type of gas involved, they have concluded that continuous blowouts have blasted holes in the shelf slope up to three miles long and l65 feet deep. Such blowouts, the researchers theorize, could trigger the type of landslide that commonly cause tidal waves, or tsunamis.
“We were very surprised at the amount of gas that we found there,” said team leader Neal W. Driscoll, of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts. The risk of tsunamis is there.”
Driscoll and his colleagues, Jeffrey Weissel, of Columbia University, and John Goff, of the University of Texas, have prompted concern by raising the possibility that tsunamis could pose a threat to the mid-Atlantic coast.
In a magazine article published before their trip, the researchers revealed the discovery of cracks in the sea floor about 60 miles east of Virginia Beach and warned that they could be the start of underwater landslides leading to tsunamis.
Such landslides could send waves of up to 20 feet along beaches in Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina and also could lead to hurricane-like flooding in Washington, D.C., and its suburbs.
The danger of tsunamis is still there, the researchers indicated, but not for the reason they originally thought represented the strongest possibilities. Initially, the team had suggested that faults in the ocean floor were the most likely explanation for an apparent procession of cracks discovered along the continental shelf.
However, the underwater rifts were not really cracks, according to Driscoll, but vast depressions formed by continuous and massive blowouts of gas. Similar blowouts have been strong enough to damage or destroy oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea.
Driscoll said the researchers had not been aware of the gas problem in this area.
The research trip, funded by a $81 000 grant from NSF, included 11 straight days of sonar measurements along the pock-marked stretch of the shelf. The team also took sediment core samples from several areas.
The team plans to continue gathering data from the area in the coming year, with emphasis on learning more about the cause and nature of the gas blowouts.
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Researchers who participated in a massive international atmospheric science campaign that began last December have determined that a significant decline in ozone over the Arctic last winter was due to an increase in the size and longevity of polar stratospheric clouds.
The ozone-destroying clouds are composed of ice and nitric acid, according to University of Colorado Professor Owen B. Toon, one of five project scientists leading NASA’s SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment, or SOLVE. The project involved satellites, aircraft, balloons, and ground-based instruments and more than 200 scientists and support staff from Canada, Europe, Russia, Japan, and the United States. The project was started last December and continued through March 2000. It staged out of Kiruna, Sweden.
Polar atmospheric clouds generally form about 13 miles above the poles when temperatures drop to minus 110°F and below, Toon explained. In some parts of the Arctic atmosphere—located from about 10 to 30 miles above Earth—ozone concentrations declined as much as 60% from November 1999 through March 2000, the scientists found. The fragile stratospheric ozone layer shields life on Earth from the harmful effects of ultraviolet radiation.
Toon is the project scientist in charge of NASA’s DC-8 aircraft that made 25 flights over the region last winter. Six Colorado University faculty members and four graduate students worked with scientists from several other Colorado institutions on the SOLVE campaign, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the University of Denver.
Although seasonal ozone loss is more severe in the Antarctic, the ozone loss in the Arctic represents more serious health threats to humans, Toon said. Ozone-depleted air from the Arctic drifts south toward North America, Europe, and Russia each spring, increasing the amounts of UV light reaching Earth’s surface in the highly populated midlatitudes and causing potential increases in several types of cancer.
Most chlorine compounds pumped into Earth’s atmosphere in recent decades by humans initially were tied up as chlorine nitrate or hydrochloric acid, both of which are nonreactive. But if there is a surface area to attach to, like the polar stratospheric cloud ice crystals, the chlorine compounds change into ozone-gobbling chlorine radicals in late winter and early spring after reacting with sunlight.
The greenhouse effect, which warms Earth near its surface, may be cooling the stratosphere enough to cause these clouds to form earlier and persist longer, Toon said. Greenhouse gases may be radiating energy and heat away from the upper stratosphere, creating prime conditions for polar stratospheric cloud formation, he explained.
“With the clouds persisting longer, we are seeing greater ozone losses even though the amount of chlorine in the atmosphere has declined slightly,” said Toon.
Another troubling phenomenon observed for the first time during SOLVE was a “denitrification” of some polar stratospheric clouds. Scientists observed nitrogen—which can act to moderate the destructive activity of reactive chlorine compounds on ozone—drizzling out of the clouds.
The ozone loss over the Arctic has been increasing since the winter of 1995–96, Toon said. If greenhouse gases warming Earth’s atmosphere are shown to be the culprit in lengthening the amount of time the polar stratospheric clouds persist, the recovery of the Arctic ozone layer may be delayed by decades, scientists predict.
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FEMA Director James Lee Witt launched a national public service announcement campaign recently aimed at influencing Americans to take action to make their communities more resistant to disasters. Named “Project Impact: Building Disaster Resistant Communities,” the announcement points out that while no one can alter the weather, action can be taken to protect themselves against severe weather activities. It also encourages citizens to ask local officials about what their community is doing to became disaster resistant.
The announcement comes on the heels of two recent surveys regarding tornado and hurricane seasons. Survey respondents noted they felt well prepared for disaster, but that they had not taken any prevention measures to prepare for natural disasters. In hurricane-prone states, 76% of respondents in northern states and 58% in southern states have not taken any prevention measures. In tornado-prone states, 56% of the respondents had taken no prevention measures.
FEMA recently announced a partnership with BellSouth and Winston Cup driver Kenny Irwin to educate NASCAR fans about hurricane prevention measures. And the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB), representing America’s radio and television stations, has agreed to work with the project.
Since its inception in 1997, nearly 200 communities and more than 1100 business partners have embraced Project Impact, officials said.
More details are available on the FEMA Web site at http://www.fema.gov
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The arrival from the Sun of billion-ton electrified gas clouds that cause severe space storms now can be predicted to within a half-day, an improvement over the best previous estimates of two–five days, according to a new research model.
Scientists at the Catholic University of America, Washington, D.C., and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, have created a model that reliably predicts how much time it takes for these clouds, called Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), to traverse the gulf between the sun and the earth, based on their initial speed from the sun and their interaction with the solar wind.
The new model uses recent observations from the European Space Agency/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the NASA WIND spacecraft, officials explained. The model has been validated and made more accurate using historical observations from the Helios-1 (Germany/NASA), the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (NASA), and the Space Test Program P78-1 (U.S. Air Force) spacecraft.
The CMEs cause space storms by interacting with the earth’s magnetic field, distorting its shape and accelerating electrically charged particles (electrons and atomic nuclei) trapped within. Severe solar weather is often heralded by dramatic auroral displays and occasionally harmful, potentially disrupting satellites, radio communications, and power systems.
“The new model more accurately predicts the arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections and will greatly benefit people who operate systems affected by space storms,” said lead author Dr. Natchimuthuk Gopalswamy of Catholic University. “The improved forecasts let operators of sensitive systems take protective action at the proper time and minimize the unproductive time when systems are placed in a safe mode to weather the storm.”
CMEs leave the sun at various speeds, ranging from 12 to 1250 miles (20 to 2000 kilometers) per second.
Using data from solar-observing spacecraft, Gopalswamy and his team discovered how much the solar wind sped up or slowed down various CMEs according to their initial speeds. If the initial speed of a CME is known, the new model accurately accounts for the influence of the solar wind on the CME speed, allowing the CME arrival time at Earth to be predicted accurately, officials explained.
Additional information is available at http://www.Imsal.com/spd/Press/.
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Following a selection process to determine a more descriptive name for the EOS Chemistry mission, NASA has selected the name “Aura” for the spacecraft.
Nominations were solicited from the EOS Chemistry community, and each of the four science teams on the CHEM platform. The EOS Chemistry Project Office and the EOS Project Science Office voted on their preferences from among 57 nominations, according to an article in the March/April issue of The Earth Observer.
Aura is Latin for “air, breath, or breeze, and it was selected both because it signifies the information CHEM will obtain about the atmosphere and because it forms a nice two-syllable Latin complement to the choice of ‘Terra’ and ‘Aqua,’ made earlier for the other large observatories in the Earth Observing System,” according to the article.
Aura is scheduled for launch on a Delta rocket from Vandenberg AFB, California, on 21 December.
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Initial pictures from NASA’s Imager for Magnetopause to Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) spacecraft have revealed for the first time the global ebb and flow of hot, electrified gas (plasma) around the Earth as it responds to the solar wind.
Severe disturbances in this region controlled by the earth’s magnetic field (the magnetosphere) are capable of disrupting satellites, telephone and radio communications, and power systems.
Previous spacecraft explored this turbulent region by detecting particles and fields as they passed through, officials explained. This technique limited scientists’ vision to small portions of this vast and dynamic region, extending beyond the moon on the earth’s night side.
“The old way of tracking magnetic storms is like trying to understand severe thunderstorms in the Midwest by driving around with a rain gauge out the window,” said Dr. Thomas Moore, IMAGE project scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland. “With IMAGE, we will see the big picture, just like entire storm systems appear on the evening news with weather satellites.”
Officials said all scientific instruments on the spacecraft are operating as expected and returning images. A suite of three Neutral Atom Imaging instruments is recording the flow of fast atoms coming from throughout the earth’s magnetic field, revealing the shape and motion of the clouds of plasma that make up a magnetic storm.
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On 27 June 2000, Dr. Nancy Foster, an assistant administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Director of the National Ocean Service, died peacefully at her home in Baltimore, Maryland.
Dr. Foster, a committed conservationist, was internationally known for her work on protected areas, her stewardship of the National Marine Sanctuaries Program, her leadership of the National Marine Fisheries Service, her creation of the NOAA Habitat Restoration Center, and other pioneering work in marine conservation. She was also much respected as an advocate for fair and equal treatment of all persons in the work place.
In 1999, President Clinton conferred the rank of Distinguished Executive on Dr. Foster for "leadership exemplifying the highest standards of service to the public." The Dr. Nancy Foster Florida Keys Environmental Center was also named in her honor. During her 23 years with NOAA, she received many awards, including three Department of Commerce Bronze Medals and the Department's Gold Medal for her leadership in marine conservation.
Dr. Foster, originally from Electra, Texas, is survived by her husband, Dr. Joseph R. Geraci, of Baltimore, her mother, Evelyn Foster, and her sister, Judy Foster of Arlington, Virginia.
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Commerce Secretary William Daley recently resigned his cabinet post to become campaign manager for Vice President Al Gore’s quest for the presidency. President Clinton has nominated former California Congressman and Lockheed Martin Corp. Executive Norman Mineta to be his new Secretary of Commerce (see related story).
Daley, 51, succeeds Tony Coelho, 58, who gave up the position reportedly for health reasons.
In July, Daley, son of the late Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley, will relocate to Nashville, where Gore has established his campaign headquarters and, according to Gore, Daley will be given “complete charge of the campaign.”
A long-time Chicago civil and business leader, Daley had served as Special Counsel to the President for the North American Free Trade Agreement prior to being nominated to be the 32nd Secretary of Commerce by President Clinton in December 1996. He was confirmed by the Senate in January 1997, succeeding Ron Brown who was killed in a plane crash.
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President Clinton has nominated former California Congressman and Lockheed Martin Corp. Executive Norman Mineta to be his new Secretary of Commerce.
Mineta, if confirmed by the Senate, which is expected, will replace William Daley, who resigned the post to become campaign chairman for Vice President Al Gore’s presidential drive (see related story).
The 68-yr-old nominee, grew up in San Jose and as a boy of 10 was sent to an internment camp in Wyoming shortly after Pearl Harbor. He began his political life in 1967 when he was elected to the San Jose City Council and later became mayor.
He won a seat in Congress in 1974. One of his major achievements there was shepherding the Civil Liberties Act of 1968, which gave a formal apology and compensation to Japanese–Americans who had been interred during World War II. In Congress, he was known more as a transportation specialist and was active in highway and aviation policy. In 1995, he resigned after only five months into his 11th term to take a job at Lockheed Martin Corp. where he oversaw the company’s “smart transportation” programs.
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