Editor: Stephanie Kenitzer
Copy Editor: Laurence Constable
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Johannes Loschnigg, visiting assistant researcher at the International Pacific Research Center at the University of Hawaii, has been selected as the 2002–03 AMS–University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) congressional science fellow. The AMS–UCAR Congressional Science Fellowship is part of a program administered by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).
Loschnigg completed his Ph.D. in astrophysical, planetary, and atmospheric sciences at the University of Colorado, Boulder, in 1998. His postdoctoral experiences at the University of Hawaii have been focused on modeling and data analysis of large-scale dynamics and the interannual variability of climate in the Asia–Pacific region. Loschnigg has long held an interest in combining a career in physics with political science. He earned his undergraduate degree at the University of Wisconsin in both physics and international relations. He participated in numerous environmental policy courses at the University of Colorado, Boulder, where he also earned his master’s degree. Loschnigg has published numerous journal articles and presented papers at AMS and other scientific meetings. He also earned several fellowships and scholarships based on his studies.
The AMS and UCAR are sponsoring a congressional fellow because the demands on Congress to establish sound public policy on scientific issues have never been greater. The AAAS program places highly qualified accomplished scientists, engineers, and other professionals in offices of individual members of Congress and committees for a 1-year assignment. Fellows perform in much the same way as regular staff members. The fellows bring to the Congress new insights, fresh ideas, extensive knowledge, and education in a variety of disciplines, and are provided with the opportunity to make a significant public service contribution and obtain firsthand experience in the legislative and political process.
Through the program, fellows gain a perspective that, ideally, should help them understand how the research community can effectively communicate with one another on important national policy issues. A fellow may have the opportunity to participate in and make significant contributions to public policy within the Congress, including issues like water policy, global warming, energy policy, defense technologies, pollution, communications technologies, and many more.
The AMS–UCAR fellow is supported with funds provided jointly by the AMS and UCAR. Together, UCAR and the AMS represent an atmospheric science community consisting of over 20 000 researchers and meteorologists in universities, government, and private industry.
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Senior members of AMS’ Washington office are is in the process of making visits to Capitol Hill to talk to staff members on both appropriations and authorization committees, to discuss issues of interest to the atmospheric and related sciences. AMS is communicating general support for the president’s budget proposal but is emphasizing in each federal agency of interest a limited number of programs that are crucial or whose status may be fragile given tight budgets.
The focus will include support for adjustments to base funding for NOAA and other agencies, that is, administrative cost increases to meet inflation; maintaining and improving the domestic and international observing system; global change programs, including the president’s Climate Change Technology Initiative and Climate Change Research Initiative; and, research, development, data assimilation, and data archiving. AMS staff will also address needs within NASA’s ESE program, atmospheric science funding in the Department of Energy’s BER program, and USGS’ water programs. Finally, an exciting possibility for discussion may be a substantial increase in NSF’s budget.
Over the next few months, meetings with Capitol Hill staff who are members of authorization committees, which guide the overall structure of federal programs and provide funding recommendations, will also take place.
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When choosing your housing for your next trip to an AMS conference, the Society strongly urges you to stay at the AMS conference hotels.
When the AMS selects a site for a conference, whether it is the annual meeting or a specialty meeting, the Society negotiates the lowest rates for our attendees. The AMS works directly with the hotels to avoid travel agent or hotel brokerage commissions. In order to get the best possible rates for sleeping and meeting rooms, the Society makes certain performance guarantees to the hotel. These guarantees are based on information about the program and previous meetings that is provided to us by the program chair. Meeting histories are also available in the AMS archives. As the meeting department solicits requests from hotels for possible contracts, they ask for a certain percentage of the rooms at the government per diem rate.* During the initial stage of contract negotiations, the program chairs are asked their opinions about certain locations and hotel packages. With the conference program in mind, AMS is required to sign contracts.
Staying at locations other than the AMS-designated hotels could result in attrition penalties from the contracted hotels because they are not generating the income “promised” to them in the contract. These penalties are ultimately passed on to the meeting attendees through higher registration fees. It also effects the types of hotels that AMS will be able to book for future meetings. If AMS meetings continuously prove to be big risks for hotels, the Society will not be able to get reasonable rates at comfortable properties. Hotels look at AMS’ prior performance before they decide what rates they will offer.
Housing blocks are set aside for AMS members’ convenience. The Society strives to allow attendees to be close to the action as possible. Staying at a conference hotel allows the convenience of being very near, if not in the same location as, the meeting rooms and poster halls. This gives attendees more time to listen to presentations and engage their colleagues. So please help the AMS keep the cost of meetings down by using the facilities selected by the AMS for your meeting.
*“The Federal Travel Regulation has recently been amended (10 January 2000—Amendment no. 89) to expand the portion regarding conferences… Emphasis is still on the lowest overall cost to the government. The government can now pay for light refreshments at breaks during a conference. Federal travelers can be reimbursed up to 25% more than the established lodging per diem rate if needed for the conference; this is referred to as the conference lodging allowance.”
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Along with the legislative and oversight work that is proceeding on Capitol Hill, Congress works on a parallel track every year to meets its constitutional responsibility to apportion federal spending. In February, the administration released its proposed budget, but legally speaking, these are only recommendations, though they are important as the federal agencies’ views on spending priorities. It is Congress, however, (formally, the House of Representatives) that is charged by law with originating and producing appropriations bills for the president’s signature.
After the administration’s proposals are released, various authorizing committees with jurisdiction over federal programs are given a chance to offer “views and estimates,” their response to the tresident’s budget. These views and estimates have no formal legislative import, but the various appropriations subcommittees treat them seriously as the product of the congressional committees that have the deep and ongoing knowledge of federal agencies. Moreover, authorizing legislation largely forms the framework for how federal dollars are spent, even as appropriations committees inevitably adjust some of the particulars and occasionally even the larger outlines of federal programs.
Appropriations committees on both sides of Congress have 13 subcommittees, each with the responsibility for some combination of federal agencies. Currently, those subcommittees are taking testimony on the administration’s proposals from the top managers of these agencies; hearings are also often scheduled to take the testimony of interested organizations and individuals outside of the agencies and sometimes even the general public. These hearings will be over by early May, and the subcommittee staff and members will get down to the work of apportioning federal dollars, including, for the agencies and programs, funding programs in the atmospheric and related sciences and services. Their spending proposals will in most cases be ready by late June.
The June issue of the AMSnewsletter will include a list of subcommittees in both Houses that have jurisdiction over programs of interest to our field, along with contact information and their members. Two comprhensive Web sites dedicated to analyzing the president’s budget request include a site produced by AAAS, as well as one by the American Institute of Physics. The House Science Committee’s “Views and Estimates” is available online at (http://www.house.gov/science/). The AMS budget analysis is available online at (http://www.ametsoc.org/ams).
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In 2000, in one of the yearly appropriations bills passed by Congress and signed by the president, a little-noticed legislative rider unrelated to appropriations—and potentially problematic to the scientific community—was inserted by a member of Congress and has become law. It requires federal agencies to institute guidelines on the integrity, quality, and utility of information disseminated by those agencies, with the final guidelines to be instituted by 1 October 2002.
By 21 September 2001, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was required to issue government-wide guidelines that “provide policy and procedural guidance to federal agencies for ensuring and maximizing the quality, objectivity, utility, and integrity of information (including statistical information) disseminated by federal agencies… ” Such general guidelines have been issued by OMB; individual agencies have until 1 May to issue proposals for final guidelines of their own, which comply with the general guidelines issued by OMB.
Written by industry, this legislation has the potential to have a serious effect on information disseminated by federal agencies and, by implication, reports and regulations. It allows third parties to use administrative mechanisms to legally question that information, which includes such products as weather reports, and scientific studies, as well as federal regulations.
Information, reports and regulations are issued in dizzying quantity by federal agencies. Heretofore, any “guidelines” as to their quality has been informal or particular to the individual work product. This allowed for subtlety and suppleness in addressing these issues. Quality of data and information is crucial, but a universal standard applying to all information issued across an entire agency can not have this flexibility and therefore may do more harm than good.
Moreover, a “hard and fast” universal standard will provide easier purchase for third parties to challenge the information issued by federal agencies. By setting a standard for data and analysis, industry would be better situated to prevail in court cases claiming poor standards in the supporting science, as anyone would be able to claim errors in federal agency documents and regulations. This would offer an additional, preliminary “bite of the apple,” and may undermine government efforts to convey information on controversial issues such as climate change and cancer risks. It is possible that it may also be used simply as a delaying device.
Reaction to the new regime of guidelines has been mixed, though business seems to be pleased. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is happy with the legislation as a culmination of efforts to focus on alleged weaknesses in the science behind sometimes costly regulations. Indeed, a report on global warming issued by the EPA has already been brought into question by the use of this device. The organization invoking administrative procedures to force withdrawal of the report is the Center for Regulatory Effectiveness (CRE), one of the groups that helped write the law. It charges that the report, the product of 10 years of work, is alarmist and based on flawed computer models. Many climate scientists, however—including some whose criticism of early drafts of the report were quoted in CRE’s petition—say that CRE’s challenge is unfounded.
Joanne Padron-Carney, director of the Center for Science, Technology, and Congress at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, told the New York Times, “This is a critical juncture … it’s important for scientists to pay close attention.” She said that there might be problems if industry or other organizations demanded complicated, time-consuming, and intrusive reviews of data. There might be attempts, according to Ms. Carney, to prevent policy from being instituted by an attack on the underlying science.
It should be said, however, that the import of this legislation is not fully understood at this point, but the scientific community is concerned and is currently examining the issue for potentially positive or negative implications. As the issue matures, developments will be reported in the AMSnewsletter.
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The Department of Labor’s (DOL) 2002 Occupational Outlook Handbook projects that employment of atmospheric scientists will increase about as fast as the average for all occupations through 2010. However, prospective atmospheric scientists may face competition if the number of degrees awarded in atmospheric science and meteorology remain near current levels.
The handbook notes that the National Weather Service (NWS) has completed an extensive modernization of its weather forecasting equipment and finished hiring of meteorologists needed to staff the upgraded stations, and has no plans to increase the number of weather stations or the number of meteorologists in existing stations for many years. Employment of meteorologists in other federal agencies is expected to decline slightly as efforts to reduce the federal government workforce continue.
On the other hand, job opportunities for atmospheric scientists in private industry are expected to be better than in the federal government over the 2000–10 period. This is consistent with the AMS 10-year vision study. As research leads to continuing improvements in weather forecasting, demand should grow for private weather consulting firms to provide more detailed information than has formerly been available, especially to weather-sensitive industries. Farmers, commodity investors, radio and television stations, utilities, transportation, and construction firms can greatly benefit from additional weather information more closely targeted to their needs than the general information provided by the NWS. Additionally, research on seasonal and other long-range forecasting is yielding positive results, which should spur demand for more atmospheric scientists to interpret these forecasts and advise weather-sensitive industries. However, because many customers of private weather services are in industries sensitive to fluctuations in the economy, the sales and growth of private weather services depend on the health of the economy.
There will continue to be demand for atmospheric scientists to analyze and monitor the dispersion of pollutants into the air to ensure compliance with federal environmental regulations outlined in the Clean Air Act of 1990, but employment increases are expected to be small.
Median annual earnings of atmospheric scientists in 2000 were $58,510. The middle 50% earned between $39,780 and $72,740. The lowest 10% earned less than $29,880, and the highest 10% earned more than $89,060.
The average salary for meteorologists in nonsupervisory, supervisory, and managerial positions employed by the Federal Government was about $68,100 in 2001. Meteorologists in the federal government with a bachelor’s degree and no experience received a starting salary of $24,245 or $29,440, depending on their college grades. Those with a master’s degree could start at $29,440 or $36,606; those with the Ph.D., at $47,039 or $59,661. Beginning salaries for all degree levels are slightly higher in selected areas of the country where the prevailing local pay level is higher.
The DOL outlook is available online at (http://stats.bls.gov/oco/ocos051.htm).
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The deadline for applications for the Peter B. Wagner Memorial Award for Women in Atmospheric Sciences is 15 June 2002. The award provides a $1,000 for the winner of an original paper composition.
The award is given by the Desert Research Institute each year to applicants pursuing a master's degree or Ph.D. in a program of atmospheric sciences or a related field, at a university in the United States. Applicants must submit a paper based on original research directly related to the identification, clarification, and/or resolution of an atmospheric/climatic problem. The award is in honor of Dr. Peter Byrne Wagner, an atmospheric scientist who had been a faculty member at the Desert Research Institute since 1968, before he was killed while conducting research in a 2 March 1980 plane crash that also claimed the lives of three other DRI employees.
In 1981, family and friends of Peter Wagner established the Peter B. Wagner Memorial Scholarship to provide promising graduate students in the Desert Research Institute’s Atmospheric Sciences Program a cash award for the purposes of furthering their professional careers.
Sue Wagner, former Nevada lieutenant governor, DRI employee, and widow of Peter Wagner, is a long-time supporter of women with careers in the atmospheric sciences. As a result, she has tailored the award specifically for women in this field.
The award presentation will be made in September 2002.
For further information on applications and criteria, please visit the award's home page online at (http://ia.dri.edu/Wagner/).
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In late March, Vaisala Group acquired 100% of the stock of Global Atmospherics Corporation of Tucson, Arizona. Global Atmospherics is the world’s largest lightning detection equipment manufacturer and lightning data services operator.
Global Atmospherics manufactures standalone lightning detection instruments and low-frequency lightning detection networks, and has recently developed VHF lightning detection technology. The company owns and operates a nationwide lightning sensor network and sells various lightning data products to the National Weather Service, airports, power utilities, recreational facilities, insurance companies, and weather service providers. The company is also participating in lightning data services in Canada, France, Central Europe, and Benelux countries.
In early 2000 Vaisala acquired another lightning detection network manufacturer, Dimensions SA, from France, which currently belongs to the Remote Sensing Division of Vaisala. It is currently the leading manufacturer of VHF technology Total Lightning Detection Networks. Vaisala intends to integrate Global Atmospherics, Inc. into this division.
Vaisala is an international technology group that develops and manufactures electronic measurement systems and equipment.
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Arctic air in March kept temperatures relatively low throughout the United States, making it the first cooler than average month since March 2001, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists. At the same time, it was the warmest March for the globe since reliable records began in 1880, they reported.
Cooler temperatures were recorded throughout a large part of the United States and Canada; warmer than average temperatures were widespread across most other global land areas.
Ocean surface temperatures were also warmer than average in the eastern equatorial Pacific, as the evolution of oceanic conditions continued to indicate a developing El Niño episode. The global sea surface temperature was the second warmest on record.
The average global temperature for land and ocean surfaces, combined (based on preliminary data), was 1.39°F (0.77°C) above the 1880–2001 long-term mean, and 0.16°F (0.09°C) higher than the previous record warm March, which occurred in 1996 during the latter stages of an El Niño episode.
Global temperatures have increased approximately 1°F (0.6°C) since 1900, but the rate of warming during the past 25 years is almost three times higher.
After several months of drier than average conditions, normal to above-normal rain and snowfall returned to much of the eastern third of the nation in March. Below average precipitation totals were largely confined to the western United States and only eight states (California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa) in the contiguous United States were significantly drier than average. However, drought continued to affect large parts of the United States, particularly areas along the eastern seaboard from Maine to Georgia and parts of the southern Plains and western United States.
The October through March six-month period was the driest October through March on record in Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and Connecticut and the second driest in Delaware and Arizona. Precipitation in eight other states from Georgia to Maine was much below average during the same period. In the Northeast, drought emergencies have recently been declared in New York City, New Jersey, southeastern Pennsylvania, parts of northern Maryland, and all but one county in New Hampshire. In Georgia and the Carolinas, March rainfall boosted streamflows and topsoil moisture, but many wells ran dry and local water-use restrictions remain in effect in many areas.
A continuation of below average precipitation in March led to worsening drought conditions in parts of the West. Although some improvement occurred in the northern Rockies, drought conditions that began nearly two years ago continued throughout a large part of Montana and the entire state was declared a drought disaster area by the Secretary of Agriculture in late March. January through March was the third driest such 3-month period in the Southwest (Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado) and was the seventh driest in the West (California and Nevada.) Mountain snowpack levels are less than 70% of average throughout a large part of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, and below 50% in New Mexico and Arizona. Conditions in the Pacific Northwest continued to improve during the month.
The wildfire season already is active in many areas with a continuation of enhanced fire risk likely, officials explained.
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One of the largest weather-related studies in U.S. history will track the nearly invisible swaths of moisture that fuel heavy rain across the southern Great Plains from Texas to Kansas. Scientists hope that analyzing water vapor will be the key to better predictions of when and where summertime storms will form and how intense they will be.
Led by scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), IHOP2002 (International H20 Project) will be based in central Oklahoma from 13 May to 25 June. The National Science Foundation, NCAR’s primary sponsor, is providing the bulk of the project’s $7 million funding, with additional support from other agencies, including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).
Six aircraft from the United States and Germany will traverse the core study area, some flying as low as 100 feet above the surface. A futuristic, semiautonomous research craft—the Proteus, sponsored by NASA—will carry instruments up to 45 000 feet. On the ground, an armada of 30 weather-tech vehicles, including four Doppler radars on flatbed trucks, will comb the rural roadways of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. Over 100 scientists and technicians scattered across the plains will be aiming radars and other sensors at water vapor well ahead of the day’s first raindrops.
Unlike many weather studies held in this region, IHOP is homing in on the water vapor that feeds showers and thunderstorms, rather than trying to capture episodic events like tornadoes or other severe weather.
Where, when, and how hard it will rain are the most difficult elements to nail down in weather forecasting, especially in spring and summer. Better precipitation outlooks are a key goal of the U.S. Weather Research Program, which has organized a number of agencies in support of IHOP. The study aims to improve forecasts from 1 to 12 hours ahead of heavy rain, which could help in flash-flood safety and other applications.
Heavy rain depends on an ample supply of moisture, so the lack of water-vapor data is a major forecast impediment. Currently, no device can track tiny molecules of water vapor minute by minute over large areas. Weather balloons (radiosondes) provide most of the water vapor data used in forecasting; however, their high cost reduces the frequency and spacing of balloon launches. Lidar (laser-based radar) provides more detail than radiosondes, but it can only sample across a few miles, and clouds reduce that range further. Satellite sensors, which cover much of the globe, have not yet furnished the high-resolution measurements needed in the lower atmosphere for storm prediction.
By mixing older and newer sensors, IHOP2002 will examine how the latest technology can bridge the gaps in water vapor sensing. Four of the IHOP aircraft will carry state-of-the-art systems that produce vertical profiles of water vapor. These will be used to help calibrate new, higher-precision instruments aboard satellites. Other sensors on the ground will analyze signals from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and other sources. Special high-end radiosondes will be launched for comparison with other data.
Meanwhile, forecasters from several labs and universities will use a suite of high-performance computer models to predict each day’s weather. Rather than simply assigning a chance of rain, the meteorologists will specify rainfall amounts across the study area. Such forecasts are now limited in accuracy, but with the IHOP data at hand, scientists are hoping to improve their skills.
More information can be found online at (http://www.atd.ucar.edu/dir_off/projects/2002/IHOP.html).
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The United States could start feeling the impacts of the developing El Niño as early as midsummer, according to NOAA scientists
Depending on its strength, unknown at this time, the impacts could range between fewer Atlantic hurricanes and a drier than normal summer monsoon season in the southwest, to more nor’easters next winter, NOAA reported.
Scientists observed a continuation of warmer than normal sea surface and subsurface temperatures across much of the equatorial Pacific. Last month, ocean surface temperatures were as high as 4° to 6°F (2° to 3°C) above average near the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru. Average ocean temperatures are about 81°F (27°C) in this region.
Related Web sites include:
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Climate change experts recently told the House Science Committee that climate programs do not involve potential “users” in setting the research agenda and do not adequately fund questions that would be useful to users. Users include regional resource managers such as irrigation authorities or public health agencies.
During a briefing on Capitol Hill on 17 April, House Science Committee Chairman Sherwood Boehlert (R-New York) described this as a “critical moment for global change research programs. While in many ways the successes of these programs are arguable, their future contours have never been more uncertain.”
He said that U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), created by the committee in 1990, is being reorganized in ways that may prove significant, and he pointed out that the administration has proposed two new research endeavors—the Climate Change Research Initiative (GCRI) and the National Climate Change Technology Initiative—both of which, he said, look promising.
Edward L. Miles of Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington discussed the importance of regional focus, testifying “the crucial questions change by location, ecosystems, human ecology, level of economic development and specific activity.” In addition, technology needs to be deployed and information disseminated on a regional basis.
Scott Bernstein, president of the Center for Neighborhood Technology, suggested shifting “the publicly available data on energy use in communities from large administrative areas (states) to small areas that relate to how people see their own lives and how utilities actually manage energy delivery (communities, neighborhoods, substations, and feeders). Without good and timely information, people have no rational basis for changing their behavior.”
When questioned by Boehlert about their “top priority” for climate change research and technology, Radford Byerly, Jr., of the Center for Science and Technology Research at the University of Colorado at Boulder responded, “connecting with users while planning research.”
He said, “Research would be preceded by a planning phase in which users and scientists would identify and define specific problems to be attacked as well as specific questions and information needs and would look ahead to the application of results.”
Dr. Eric J. Barron, director of the Earth System Science Center at the Pennsylvania State University, agreed, stressing an “integrated focus.”
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NOAA’s National Weather Service is teaming its lightning experts with educators during the Second Annual Lightning Safety Awareness Week, which kicked off on April 28. The goal is to increase awareness of the risks posed by lightning and to teach lightning safety skills to millions of children in the United States. The AMS has also adopted a new statement on lightning safety.
Lightning is the second deadliest weather-related killer in the United States, averaging 73 deaths per year. In addition, hundreds more are injured, many with serious and lasting impacts on their quality of life.
Coordinated by Jim Vavrek, a longtime Hammond, Indiana, eighth grade science teacher, the Lightning Safety Awareness Week Education Team is working with teachers’ groups and NOAA’s National Weather Service meteorologists across the country to spread the word that “Lightning Kills: Play it Safe!”
“Knowledge saves lives. Our goal is to make the K–12 students and their teachers and coaches aware of the dangers of lightning, and more importantly, how to protect themselves and others from this threat,” Vavrek said.
“In the United States, lightning deaths and injuries occur most frequently in open fields, including ballparks, and playgrounds. Lightning safety is crucial for schools, since many have activities in open fields such as recess on the playgrounds and athletic fields,” said John Ogren, meteorologist in charge of the Indianapolis NOAA’s National Weather Service Forecast Office and a Lightning Safety Awareness Week national organizer.
Ogren said people are particularly vulnerable to lightning strikes when a storm is approaching or exiting their area.
The centerpiece of Lightning Safety Awareness Week is a comprehensive lightning safety Web site (http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov). The site contains interesting facts about lightning, and detailed information on where to seek shelter when thunderstorms threaten. This resource is available throughout the year for students, teachers, and the public. Visitors can download video presentations on everything from the causes of lightning to the medical consequences of being a lightning-strike victim. Survivor stories and a public service announcement featuring pro golfer Rocco Mediate are also available.
The Second Lightning Safety Awareness Week runs until May 4.
Some lightning safety tips include:
*Portions of this article were provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and first published in NOAA News Online.
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The National Science Foundation (NSF) is planning a new research station at the South Pole.
A 52-person section of the $153 million project is scheduled to open next year, and the entire 110-person structure by 2006. The new building will replace the 27-year-old dome, in which residents had to eat in shifts and bundle up to negotiate the icy hallways.
The dome required massive amounts of fuel to fight the bitter temperatures. The new living space and amenities will be especially welcomed by the summer residents who now cram into Jamesways—plywood and canvas covered Quonset huts located near the dome.
The new Amundsen–Scott South Pole station is being built by the Office of Polar Programs at NSF and includes a new power plant and cargo, garage, and satellite communications facilities.
Officials said that it would be too costly to rehabilitate the silver geodesic dome, which is being crushed by snowdrifts. When the new building opens in 2006, NSF plans to bulldoze the dome and fly it back to the United States.
The new 430-foot-long station will be elevated off the ground atop 36 steel columns, so snow can be channeled under it. The building also is designed so it can be jacked up twice during its 25-year life span, thus avoiding being buried under snow.
To insulate the building against temperatures that can dip to 117°F below zero, each exterior wall will be 2 feet thick. The cafeteria will have windows, as will about 80% of the bedrooms. Each bedroom will have a computer connection, but the sleeping quarters still be tight—each winter dorm to be about 8 feet by 9½ feet.
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Rising sea levels caused by global warming may erode the marshlands in the Chesapeake and Delaware bays by the end of the century, according to a University of Maryland study.
If sea levels continue to rise at current rates—or the higher rates as predicted in climate models—the two largest estuaries on the East Coast could disappear by 2100, according to the study, which appeared in the April issue of EOS.
The deterioration of the marshlands, the spawning grounds and nurseries for saltwater fish, could have serious consequences on fisheries, the report noted.
By 1993, approximately 70% of the marshes in these two estuaries showed damage from rising waters, affecting the ecosystem. Marshes act as sinks for carbon, holding it in solid form so it does not escape as carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas.
Michael Kearney, a professor at the University of Maryland, College Park, said the levels of degradation are a bad as anywhere on the Atlantic coast and rival that of the Mississippi Delta in Louisiana.
Bill Street, director of watershed restoration at the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, said the study provides “another example of how the Bay ecosystem is out of whack right now.”
He said the Chesapeake Bay is plagued with pollution and excessive nutrient runoff from farms and industry, leading to a depletion of sea grasses, which are key habitats for blue crabs and young fish.
“The erosion makes restoring the health of the Bay all the more difficult,” Street explained. He and others agree that stopping the rising waters is practically impossible, “so what we really need to do is address those issues that we can have some impact on.”
That includes limiting pollution runoff, replanting underwater grasses, and growing oyster beds, he said.
Kearney’s finding was based on 1993 satellite images updated with more recent aerial photos and field surveys. The information is used to determine a Marsh Surface Condition Index, which tracks the overall health of the marsh. The index helps scientists focus on the role of long-term sea-level rise without regard to annual variations caused by heavy storms and other temporary phenomena.
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Future volcanic eruptions could form an ozone hole over the Arctic within the next three decades, according to a paper that appeared in the March issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
“A ‘volcanic ozone hole’ is likely to occur over the Arctic within the next 30 years,” said Azadeh Tabazadeh, lead author of the paper and a scientist at NASA’s Ames Research Center in California. Her coauthors are Ketja Drdla, also of Ames; Mark R. Schoeberl of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Patrick Hamill of San Jose State University, California; and O. Brian Toon of the University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado.
“If a period of high volcanic activity coincides with a series of cold Arctic winters, then a springtime arctic ozone hole may reappear for a number of consecutive years, resembling the pattern seen in the Antarctic every spring since the 1980s,” Tabazadeh said.
“Unlike the Antarctic, where it is cold every winter, the winter in the Arctic stratosphere is highly variable,” she said. Large volcanic eruptions pump sulfur compounds into the earth’s atmosphere. These compounds form sulfuric acid clouds similar to polar stratospheric cloud made of nitric acid and water. The clouds of nitric acid and water form in the upper atmosphere during very cold conditions and play a major role in the destruction of ozone over the earth’s poles. Following eruptions, volcanic sulfuric acid clouds would greatly add to the ozone-destroying power of polar stratospheric clouds, according to Drdla.
“Volcanic aerosols also can cause ozone destruction at warmer temperatures than polar stratospheric clouds, and this would expand the area of ozone destruction over more populated areas, Tabazadeh said. “Nearly one-third of the total ozone depletion could be a result of volcanic aerosol effects at altitudes below about 11.5 miles (17 kilometers),” the researchers reported.
“Volcanic emissions can spread worldwide,” Schoeberl explained. “Our Mt. Pinatubo computer animation shows that the volcanic plume spread as far north as the North Pole in the lowest part of the stratosphere within a few months after the eruption.”
Between about 9 to 16 miles (15 and 25 kilometers) in altitude, volcanic Arctic clouds could increase springtime ozone loss over the Arctic by as much as 70%, according to Drdla. “The combination of thick volcanic aerosols at lower altitudes and natural polar stratospheric clouds at higher altitudes could greatly increase potential for ozone destruction over the North Pole in a cold year,” Tabazadeh said.
“Both the 1982 El Chicon and 1991 Pinatubo eruptions were sulfur rich, producing volcanic clouds that lasted a number of years in the stratosphere,” Tabazadeh said. The Pinatubo eruption widely expanded the area of ozone loss over the Arctic.
Both eruptions did have an effect over the South Pole, expanding the area and depth of the ozone hole over the Antarctic. Computer simulations have shown that the early and rapid growth of the ozone hole in the early 1980s may have been influenced in part by a number of large volcanic eruptions, according to Tabazadeh.
“In 1993, the Arctic winter was not one of the coldest winters on record, and yet the ozone loss was one of the greatest we’ve seen,” she said. “This was due to the sulfurous Pinatubo clouds facilitating the destruction of additional ozone at lower altitudes where polar stratospheric clouds cannot form.”
“Climate change combined with after effects of large volcanic eruptions will contribute to more ozone loss over both poles,” Tabazadeh predicted. “This research proves that ozone recovery is more complex than originally thought.”
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A new NASA computer model can now tell where in the world rain or snow originates. The model simulates water movement in the atmosphere around the world and traces it back from the places where it evaporates to the places where it falls back to the earth. Known as the “water vapor tracer,” scientists hope to use this to improve rainfall and drought forecasts and gain a deeper understanding of climate change.
“When I see rain or snow in the central United States, I can now tell you how much of the moisture came from the Gulf of Mexico, how much came from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and so on,” said meteorologist Mike Bosilovich of NASA’s Data Assimilation Office at Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland. “The model gives us a much clearer picture of how water moves in the atmosphere than we have ever had before.”
Bosilovich is the lead author of the study published in the March–April issue of the AMS’s Journal of Hydrometeorology.
By identifying water vapor movement in the atmosphere, weather forecasters will better understand how evaporation from a particular place contributes to local and regional precipitation, leading to more accurate weather forecasts, the article reported.
The atmosphere over North America receives moisture evaporated from many different water sources. For example, while clouds above the West Coast generally originate in the Pacific Ocean, those over the Midwest are more likely to have come from the Gulf of Mexico. Water from previous storms also evaporates from the land, contributing to the mix.
“You might visualize each region of continent or ocean as having a kind of ‘smokestack,’” Bosilovich explained. “Each smokestack sends up a plume of water vapor that mixes with the air.”
What complicates matters, he said, is that these smokestacks send up different-sized plumes of moisture at different times, and changes in wind and temperature can push them in different directions, depending on the day or season. Until very recently, even the fastest computers had trouble keeping track of all the variables.
Bosilovich and Siegfried Schubert, who works with Bosilovich, have characterized the model’s capabilities by analyzing the atmospheric water cycles over India and North America. They chose to analyze the cycles during the summer months over a period of 6 years, because both regions experience monsoons from June through August and provide a great deal of moisture to track.
They found that while precipitation in India often comes directly from the ocean, much of what falls in the United States in the summertime can be “recycled” moisture—water from previous storms that evaporates from the ground and then falls again quickly nearby.
“The model could assess how strongly this recycling of water contributed to floods like the devastating Mississippi River flood of 1993,” said Bosilobvich.
Bosilovich currently is applying the data from the 1993 flood to the water vapor tracer model to gain a better insight into the processes that generated the flood.
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EPA has announced that an international consortium has requested a research permit to conduct a 2-week experiment injecting carbon dioxide into the ocean about four nautical miles offshore from Nawiliwili, Kauai, in Hawaii.
The proposed experiment is part of larger effort to evaluate options for managing the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere with a long-range goal to slow the potential global “greenhouse” effect.
The focus of the proposed experiment—injection of carbon dioxide into deep ocean waters, also known as “sequestration,” represents one approach to carbon dioxide management.
The consortium’s contractor, Pacific International Center for High Technology Research, a nonprofit research and development organization based in Honolulu, Hawaii, will conduct the experiment and collect data to validate computer modeling of the transient carbon dioxide plumes after injection into the ocean. The proposed location for the research project is an EPA-designated ocean dredge material disposal site, selected for its ideal weather and wave conditions.
The 20 metric tons of liquid carbon dioxide proposed to be released during the experiment is 15 to 20 times smaller than the documented volume released from the submerged Lo’ihi volcanic vents located off Hawaii over a two-week period in 1997, officials said. The research project, consisting of a series of test releases over a 2-week period, will evaluate the dispersion of liquid carbon dioxide droplets in ocean waters.
The EPA will not issue the research permit until the proposed project activities have been determined to comply with the Coastal Zone Management Act, the Endangered Species Act, and the Essential Fish Habitat Act, officials said.
The small-scale experiment is expected to have minimal adverse impacts on the marine environment, including temporary short-term increases of seawater activity in a small portion of the proposed research zone.
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Two proposals for further development of Landsat-type data have been selected to continue the 30-year heritage of the Landsat series of earth-observing missions, according to NASA officials.
NASA, in partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey, chose the proposals of Resource 21, of Englewood, Colorado, and Digital Globe, of Longmont, Colorado.
NASA is required by law to continue gathering of these important scientific data, and must have digital-image data products that provide seasonal coverage of the global landmass to meet government needs.
“These data will enable us to assess the role of earth’s ecosystems in the cycling of carbon in the overall earth system, a matter of national scientific importance that has profound international implications,” said Dr. Ghassem Asrar, associate administrator for NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise. “In addition, these data also can be used for a variety of applications, such as urban planning and inventory and management of natural resources, such as America’s forests.”
During the first phase of this open competition, each group will have approximately 9 months to develop further their technical and business plans, as well as a preliminary design of their system for providing future Landsat-quality data. During this formulation phase they will conduct activities such as trade studies and analyses.
At the end of the formulation phase, other proposals that meet the formulation requirements and provide a business plan and system-level preliminary design review acceptable to the government may also be submitted for consideration. NASA will announce a second solicitation for all qualified organizations late in the first phase.
NASA is providing $5 million in funding for this formulation phase. The agency expects to finalize the award for the Landsat Data Continuity Mission in mid-2003, with data delivery to the government in 2005.
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Two satellites designed to work in concert to map the earth’s gravity to an unprecedented accuracy were recently launched on a 5-year mission that scientists hope will give new insight into global climate change.
Known as the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, or GRACE, the satellites were launched aboard a Russian launch vehicle from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome on 16 March.
Grace is a joint NASA–German Center for Air and Space Flight (Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft und Raumfahrt, or DRL) mission that will track how water is transported and stored within the earth’s environment. The mission will measure precisely the earth’s shifting water masses and map their effects on the earth’s gravity field.
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Dr. D. James Baker, former administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has joined the Academy of Natural Sciences in Philadelphia as President and Chief Executive Officer. Baker will take office on 20 May 2002 and will replace Interim President and CEO Seymour S. Preston, III.
The Academy of Natural Sciences, an international museum of natural history operating since 1812, undertakes research and public education that focuses on the environment and its diverse species. The mission of the academy is to expand knowledge of nature through discovery and to inspire stewardship of the environment.
Baker was trained as a physicist, practiced as an oceanographer, and has held research, teaching, and management positions in academia, the nonprofit sector, and government. Most recently, he held a presidential appointment as undersecretary for oceans and atmosphere and administrator of NOAA. Baker was the longest serving administrator of NOAA.
During his career, Baker has chaired numerous national and international advisory committees, and has advised Congress and the executive branch on environment, science, and management issues. He has been active in the work of several scientific societies, and cofounded and was the first president of the Oceanography Society. He is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and of the AMS. He has led oceanographic expeditions to all parts of the world and is the author of the book Planet Earth: The View from Space.
Baker was born and raised in Long Beach, California. He graduated from Stanford University in 1958 with a Bachelor of Science degree in physics. In 1962, he received his Ph.D. from Cornell University in experimental physics.
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Timothy R.E. Keeney was sworn in as deputy assistant secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere during a recent ceremony in Washington, D.C.
In this capacity, Keeney will be a key member of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) managment team. NOAA is the nation’s top government science and environmental management agency and is led by Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., USN (ret.). At NOAA Keeney will work on environmental policy, strategic planning and program analysis.
Keeney has served in numerous public and private positions throughout his career. Most recently, he served as director of environmental services for Northeast Utilities Service Company in Hartford, Connecticut, beginning February 1998.
Keeney earned a bachelor’s degree from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania in 1970 and a doctor of laws degree from the University of Connecticut School of Law in 1976. He also completed the environmental leadership program at Yale University’s School of Forestry and Environmental Studies.
He has held several environmental management and regulatory positions, including NOAA general counsel, and director of ocean and coastal resource management at NOAA’s National Ocean Service. He served as commissioner for the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection and director of the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management. Keeney was also president of Dufrane Nuclear Services, Inc. in Avon, Connecticut.
A captain in the United States Naval Reserve, he is currently the commander of Naval Reserve SEAL Special Boat Squadron Two, at Little Creek Naval Amphibious Base, Norfolk, Virginia.
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NASA Administrator Sean O’Keefe has named Frederick D. Gregory as associate administrator for space flight and Mary Kicza as associate administrator for biological and physical research at NASA headquarters.
Gregory, 60, has been acting associate administrator for the office since December, when he replaced Joseph H. Rothenberg, who retired. Astronaut William F. Readdy will remain in the senior position of deputy associate administrator with expanded responsibilities over major programs, operations and management of the Human Exploration and Development of Space Enterprise. Gregory, a veteran astronaut, has logged more than 455 hours in space during three space shuttle missions.
Kicza comes to NASA headquarters from Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, where she had been associate center director. As associate administrator, she will manage an office dedicated to conducting basic and applied research to support human exploration of space and to taking advantage of the space environment as a laboratory for scientific, technological, and commercial research. She joined NASA in 1982.
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The National Weather Service (NWS) has tapped John McNulty to head the agency’s Office of Operational Systems. As director, McNulty will manage the maintenance of the systems that collect and distribute weather data worldwide.
McNulty, an engineer and logistics expert, has been with the National Weather Service since 1989. He was hired as an electronics engineer and helped design and implement projects that spanned the entire range of operational weather systems. For five years, McNulty was responsible for major acquisitions of new systems and upgrades to existing ones.
McNulty graduated from Northeastern University in 1969, with a bachelor of science degree in electrical engineering. In 1973, McNulty earned a master’s degree in operations research from American University, and a year later, a graduate certificate in computer systems from American University.
In 1994, McNulty was promoted to supervisory physical scientist and developed procedures for integrating the National Weather Service’s automated surface observing programs. Today, Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) units collect data at airports across the nation.
In 1996, McNulty became head of the National Weather Service’s Maintenance, Logistics, and Acquisition division, and established strict maintenance policies for all the agency’s programs. He was also responsible for monitoring the plans for contracts and evaluating costs.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration presented 15 Mark Trail Awards to individuals and groups in mid-April for their contributions to expand and improve the life-saving NOAA Weather Radio system coverage, awareness, and radio receiver ownership across the nation. The award is named after syndicated comic strip character, Mark Trail, the official spokesman for NOAA Weather Radio.
At a Capitol Hill luncheon, South Dakota Governor William J. Janklow, Judge Ray B. Stanley of Polk County, Arkansas, and representatives of the Sam’s Club Spirit volunteers from Muncy, Pennsylvania, joined other recipients to accept their Mark Trail Awards, sponsored by NOAA’s National Weather Service.
In its sixth year, the Mark Trail Awards are presented to individuals, local governments, organizations, and corporations, recognizing either their support to expand NOAA Weather Radio coverage, receiver ownership, or quick reactions that saved lives during severe weather episodes, or civil emergencies. AMS Executive Director Ron McPherson gave brief remarks at the ceremony on the successful partnership between government and private industry represented in the NOAA Weather Radio program.
Mark Trail, a syndicated comic strip published through King Features in approximately 175 newspapers nationwide, has been the official spokesman for NOAA Weather Radio since 1997. Jack Elrod, writer and illustrator for Mark Trail, became involved with NOAA Weather Radio in 1995, featuring it in a Sunday comic strip.
The 2002 Mark Trail Award winners are:
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