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Just about any subject related to the atmospheric and related sciences is on the program for the American Meteorological Society's 83rd Annual Meeting taking place this month in Long Beach, California. Hot topics such as climate change top the agenda with presentations by the president's top science advisor John Marburger and the head of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Jim Mahoney. NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe is scheduled to open the meeting. Following are some of the meeting highlights:
NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe Kicks Off AMS Annual Meeting—NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe will officially kick-off the AMS Annual Meeting on Sunday, February 9, 7 P.M.
Bush administration presents plans for research and development to cope with climate change—Dr. John H. Marburger, director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the White House; Dr. James R. Mahoney, assistant secretary for oceans and atmosphere, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce and former AMS President; and Honorable David Garman, assistant secretary for energy efficiency and renewable energy, will speak at 10 A.M. Wednesday, 12 February, on the goals of the Bush administration's climate change initiative, how it relates to ongoing federal climate change research activities, and how it could be structured to yield useful information for decision makers.
Challenges and Opportunities in Water Resource Management: The Role of the WMO—Presented by G.O.P. Obasi, director of the World Meteorological Organization (Tuesday, 1:30 P.M.)
The need for a global climate observing system—NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher will give a special presentation on a global climate observing system (Tuesday, 5 P.M.)
2nd Annual AMS Student Conference and Career Fair—The 2nd Annual AMS Student Conference and Career Fair, sponsored by the American Meteorological Society, will be held 8–9 February 2003. The conference and career fair is intended for senior undergraduates and first-year graduate students, and will focus on active areas and emerging opportunities in atmospheric and related sciences. Sessions will include invited speakers from the private, academic, and government sectors. A career fair is scheduled to provide a forum for students to personally interact with employers and representatives of graduate institutions, and includes the opportunity to establish contacts and set up interviews.
Weather Fest—The AMS' 2nd Annual Weather Fest will take place Sunday, 9 February from 12–4 P.M. Weather Fest is a free, public science and weather day geared toward the general public and greater Long Beach community. The four-hour science fair will feature speakers and hands-on demonstrations, cool videos, a balloon launch and much more.
Exhibit Hall Opening—More than 100 companies will feature the latest in products and services for the meteorological community. The exhibit hall officially opens Monday, 10 February at 5:30 P.M. The exhibit hall is an excellent backdrop for live shots and taped interviews.
Two Premier Book Signings—David Atlas, the veritable father of radar meteorology, will sign his book Reflections: A Memoir at the AMS Resource Center. This is an entertaining book that combines reflections and commentary on the various stages of Dave's career in the field of weather radar with his boundless enthusiasm for creativity and the sheer joy of discovery—it's a must read. Joanne Simpson will sign the named monograph dedicated to her: Cloud Systems, Hurricanes, and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), edited by Wei-Kuo Tao and Robert Adler. This monograph is a fitting tribute to a true pioneer in tropical meteorology research and describes many of the high points of her illustrious career culminating in her management of the crucial and highly successful TRMM project. The signings will take place on Monday (beginning at 2:30 P.M.) and Tuesday (beginning at 9:45 A.M.) in the AMS Resource Center in the Exhibit Hall B.
AMS Users Conference: The Water Resources Community's Uses and Needs for Weather and Climate Services—A two-day conference designed specifically for two different but related user communities: water resource managers and managers of surface transportation organizations that must deal with the impacts of water (e.g., snow/ice, local flooding) on their operations. Practitioners, decision makers, and other end users and potential end users of commercial weather and climate products and services are invited to attend (Tuesday, 1 February and Wednesday, 12 February)
The Simpsons Symposium: A Tribute to Robert and Joanne Simpson—A special two-day Simpsons Symposium honoring Drs. Robert and Joanne Simpson will be held on Wednesday, 12 February and Thursday, 13 February. The symposium is designed to honor the careers of Robert and Joanne Simpson, which, combined, represent over a century of service to the meteorology community and include pioneering work in the areas of cloud dynamics, the large-scale circulation, tropical rainfall measurement, hurricane structure and energetics, hurricane forecasting, weather modification, and hurricane landfall damage assessment. Their contributions have provided the basis for much of our knowledge of hurricanes and how we forecast hurricanes today.
The History of the Atmospheric Sciences: People, Discoveries, and Technologies—The Presidential Symposium on the History of the Atmospheric Sciences: People, Discoveries, and Technologies will be held during the Annual Meeting. The symposium will highlight professional work in this field. Presenters will include historians of science and the first three recipients of the AMS Graduate Fellowship in the History of Science. (Tuesday afternoon).
A Look at the 2002 Wildfire Season—A special session on the 2002 wildfire season and related atmospheric science issues is being planned for Tuesday, 11 February, 7–9 P.M.
Special Session on African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)—The AMMA is an international research project concerned with the West African monsoon and its impact on food and water resources, health, and chemistry. It includes a field campaign that will take place between 2004 and 2006. The purpose of this short session is to provide a brief overview of AMMA activities and an update on the status of plans for the AMMA field campaign. (Monday, 10 February 7–9 P.M.)
National Science Foundation Town Meeting—Margaret Leinen, assistant director for geosciences, will provide an overview of the president's FY04 budget request to Congress, the status of the FY03 budget and special focus areas in the directorate for geosciences (GEO). Wednesday, 12 February 12–1 P.M.)
NOAA Satellite Systems Forum—A special session about the new generation of polar and geostationary satellites for the 2010 time frame and beyond that will have markedly improved spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution in both imagers and sounders. A panel of experts will discuss issues related to NOAA satellite systems in the future. What technologies will become available? What improvements to numerical models and forecasting techniques are expected? What new sensors and scientific developments will be demonstrated? What new technologies need to be proven? It is the goal of this forum to enlighten the Society's membership and solicit input for use in planning coming generations of NOAA satellite remote sensing measurements and information needs. Thursday, 13 February, 12–1:30 P.M.
These are just some of the many events and sessions. A complete list of all the planned sessions and most abstracts is available on the AMS web site at http://www.ametsoc.org/ams. Click on the 83rd Annual Meeting logo. The site is searchable for specific abstracts, authors and institutions, and key words.
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Susan K. Avery, director of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Colorado has been elected as president elect for the American Meteorological Society. Avery will serve as president of the Society in 2004. She is only the second woman to hold that post for the Society. Joanne Simpson was president in 1989.
Avery has been director of CIRES since 1994 and has taught at the university since 1985. As director, Avery oversees a diverse and rich research agenda in earth system science. She has helped form a regional integrated science and assessment program that examines the impacts of climate variability on water in the interior west. She is currently on sabbatical study leave working with NOAA and the Climate Change Science Program in Washington, D.C.
Avery has also served on a number of national committees and boards. Currently she serves as the scientific discipline representative and the International Union of Radio Science representative to the Scientific Committee on Solar Terrestrial Physics, on the American Geophysical Union's committee on education and human resources, as a member of various panels of the National Research Council, and as a member of the National Association of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges Board on Oceans and Atmospheres. She is a fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers and AMS, and serves as AMS commissioner.
Avery has earned numerous awards including the University of Colorado Robert L. Stearns Award in recognition for exceptional achievement and/or service; the Elizabeth Gee Memorial Lectureship Award for scholarly contributions, distinguished teaching, and advancing women in the academic community; and the Margaret Willard Award, University Women's Club, for her outstanding contributions to the University of Colorado at Boulder.
Avery received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois in 1978. Her personal research expertise is in using Doppler radar techniques for observing physical processes in the atmosphere. She is currently studying the impact of wind profiler data on numerical weather products, characterization of the structure and evolution of upper atmosphere wave motions using meteor radar techniques, tropical wave propagation, and precipitation structure using multifrequency radar measurements. She is the author of over 75 publications in the refereed literature. Avery's teaching includes courses in radar science and techniques, geophysical data analysis, and policy responses to climate variability.
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Professor Jan Bednar, head of the Department of Meteorology and Environment Protection at Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic, is asking members of the American Meteorological Society to help restore its library, which was heavily damaged during the 2001 floods. The university lost approximately 5000 volumes of textbooks and journals and is requesting copies of the following books:
General Meteorology, Dynamic Meteorology
Boundary-Layer Meteorology, Air Pollution
Cloud Physics
Radiation
Atmospheric Electricity
Atmospheric Optics
Any AMS member wishing to help should contact Dr. Jan Bednar directly at Charles University, V Holesovickach 2, 180 00 Prague 8, Czech Republic; Phone: +420 2 2191 2533, Email: kmop@mff.cuni.cz.
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On 16 January several multinational corporations launched a climate trading program called the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX). The exchange is a voluntary cap-and-trade program for reducing and trading greenhouse gas emissions.
The companies have made a legally binding commitment to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases by 4% below the average of their 1998–2001 baseline by 2006, the last year of the pilot program.
The founding members of CCX include American Electric Power (AEP), Baxter International Inc., the City of Chicago, DuPont, Equity Office Properties Trust, Ford Motor Company, International Paper, Manitoba Hydro, MeadWestvaco Corporation, Motorola, Inc., STMicroelectronics, Stora Enso North America, Temple-Inland Inc., and Waste Management, Inc.
"The private sector's response to the initiative has been incredible," says internationally known financial innovator and Chairman and CEO of CCX, Dr. Richard L. Sandor. "These companies have demonstrated tremendous leadership. They really believe that a proactive approach to climate change advances everyone's long-term interests. It's simply good business."
The goal is to implement a voluntary private pilot program for trading greenhouse gases in North America, to be later expanded to include international sources, according to the exchange. CCX marks the first time major companies in multiple industries have made a voluntary binding commitment to use a rules-based market for reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. CCX will enable them to receive credit for such reductions and to buy and sell credits in order to find the most cost-effective way of achieving reductions. Trading is targeted to begin in the spring of 2003.
CCX will administer this pilot program for emission sources, farm and forest carbon sinks, offset projects, and liquidity providers in North America. To foster international emissions trading, offset providers in Brazil can also participate.
The development of CCX resulted from feasibility and design studies that were funded by grants from the Chicago-based Joyce Foundation and administered by Northwestern University's Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Environmental Financial Products, LLC, conducted the research and development effort.
Additional information can be found on the Internet at http://www.chicagoclimatex.com/html/about.html.
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WeatherData, Inc., a provider of weather risk management services and weather forecasting products, recently launched Storm Hawk, a navigation and weather forecasting system for land and marine use for consumers. The device should be available in March 2003.
According to WeatherData, Storm Hawk is a portable, hand-held system with weather-overlaid mapping based on global positioning satellite (GPS) data. It is designed for recreational uses such as boating and driving trips as well as business uses in industries such as transportation, emergency management, and insurance. Storm Hawk brings information to consumers that are traveling by car, RV, or motorcyle. It also designed for boaters, golfers, and anyone concerned about the safety of their outdoor activities.
Using GPS technology and wireless or satellite communication, Storm Hawk provides weather information in real time through a personal digital assistant (PDA). It tracks the user's route of travel and anticipates weather movement to provide weather hazard warnings. When updated weather is loaded onto the PDA, the user sees a detailed color map of his location overlaid with weather radar, applicable weather advisories, and other pertinent information. Available with road maps and marine navigational charts, the Storm Hawk display is always oriented to the user's location and direction of travel, and the map constantly tracks his movement. Mapping features are comparable to others on the market while other features include zoom capabilities ranging from one mile to 250 miles and weather radar download time of less than one minute.
The complete system requires an iPAQ PDA from COMPAQ loaded with the Storm Hawk software, a GPS card, and a cellular or satellite phone. To download weather data, the user subscribes to the Storm Hawk service for $9.95 per month. The entire system with cellular phone card will retail for about $1500, and the satellite phone option will cost closer to $2000.
For more information, see www.weatherdata.com.
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A 2001 nationwide survey conducted for the National Science Foundation (NSF) reports that for the first time in nine years, the number of doctoral degrees (Ph.D.s) awarded by U.S. universities dropped to below 41,000.* And since 1998, when total Ph.D.s reached an all-time high, a significant decline in science and engineering (S&E) doctorates has led a rollback of total Ph.D.s to pre-1994 levels. Only earth, atmospheric, and oceanic sciences experienced increases in doctorate awards.
However, analysts cite a two-year turn upward in 2000–01 graduate enrollments in S&E that could reverse the downward trend in doctorates produced in those fields.
The latest release from NSF's Science and Engineering Doctorate Awards (2001) are a compilation of detailed statistical tables derived from the nationwide Survey of Earned Doctorates, a report of data collected on doctorates conferred in all academic fields at 416 universities.
The 2001 survey of doctorates reveals that the numbers of nonscience and engineering Ph.D.s awarded since 1995 have remained nearly constant, staying at just over 15,200 per year on average over the last six years, with small up and down movements each year. Meanwhile, S&E doctorates, since reaching a high point of almost 27,300 in 1998, have dropped by 7% since, to just over 25,500 in 2001.
"From 1998 to 2001, the decline in science and engineering Ph.D.s was almost across the board," said Susan T. Hill, SRS project officer for the surveys. But Hill cautions against any general conclusion that this is a long-term trend. "If you look at the last two years we have available—1999 and 2000—the number of students enrolling in graduate S&E programs is rising. And some of the soon-to-be-published numbers appear to indicate another increase in graduate enrollments for 2001."
Among survey highlights, women have shown slow, steady increases in obtaining doctorates in most fields. In 2001, women were awarded about 44% of the doctorates for all fields combined. However, women are still underrepresented in many science and engineering fields. In 1997, women represented just 32.8% of the total S&E doctorates awarded. And by 2001, women had received 9,300 Ph.D.s, or 36.5% of the S&E total for the year.
In the physical sciences, women still represent less than one-quarter of earned doctoral degrees and in engineering, just 16.8%. In physics, women have gained only 1 percentage point over 10 years, earning just 11.9% of the doctorates in 1992, and only 13% in 2001. In computer sciences, women earned 18.8% of the doctorates in 2001.
According to the Survey of Earned Doctorates, African Americans remain underrepresented in most fields. About 8.2% of blacks among U.S. citizens and permanent residents received non-S&E doctorates in 2001. In 1998, they received 7.4%. In science and engineering, blacks earned just 3.5% of the 1998 doctorates, and about 4.3% in 2001. This percentage has remained nearly level over the past three years.
U.S. citizens earned almost 70% of the doctorates in all fields for 2001. In science and engineering, 15,000 of the 25,000 Ph.D.s, or a little less than 59% went to U.S. citizens (in 1998, it was 59.5%). In engineering, just 41.1% of the doctorates went to U.S. citizens (in 1998, it was 43.3%).
Other findings in the 2001 S&E doctorate statistics include the following.
More than 92% of the 40,744 receiving research doctoral degrees in 2001 returned the survey, and according to NSF, just 10 institutions accounted for 29% of those not responding to the survey.
NSF, the National Institutes of Health, and the Department of Education are the primary funding agencies for the national survey, with additional support from NASA, the National Endowment for the Humanities, and the Department of Agriculture. The data are collected for NSF's Division of Science Resources Statistics (SRS) under a contract with the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago.
For more information on the S&E doctorate awards, see http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/nsf03300/start.htm.
For the NORC report, on all fields of study, see http://www.norc.uchicago.edu/issues/docdata.htm.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has posted its draft FY03–FY08 strategic plan online for public review and comment through 14 February 2003. Once finalized after the public and internal review process, the strategic plan will become the blueprint for NOAA's core and future missions and will become an integral part of NOAA's resource planning and priorities according to the agency.
The strategic plan is the result of consultations with over 1000 stakeholders and NOAA employees during a series of meetings conducted across the country since August 2002. Based on input from these meetings, the plan sets an agenda for investment of resources through four overarching goals for achieving the agency's mission:
In an effort to build specific core strengths, NOAA selected six core capabilities recognized as essential to sustain its mission goals. These core issues support President Bush's management agenda and the NOAA administrator's vision for a citizen-centered, results-oriented, market-based agency:
All comments should be submitted by 14 February 2003 online or by e-mail. The draft of NOAA's strategic plan and directions for submitting comments have been posted online at http://www.osp.noaa.gov.
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The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) will host the 57th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) at the Hilton Miami Airport Hotel, Miami, Florida, from 10 March through 14 March 2003.
The conference provides a forum for the federal agencies, together with representatives of the user communities such as emergency management, to review the nation's hurricane forecast and warning program and to make recommendations on how to improve the program in the future. The major objective is to plan and prepare for the upcoming hurricane season. New procedures, procedural changes, and agreements, which are approved at the conference and are directly related to the provision of tropical cyclone forecast and warning services, are then documented for implementation in the National Hurricane Operations Plan, which is published annually.
See the OFCM Web site at www.ofcm.gov for registration information and abstract submission guidelines. For details contact Bob Dumont or Bobbie Palmer at 301-427-2002 or robert.dumont@noaa.gov and barbara.palmer@noaa.gov.
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Lockheed Martin and the Ministerul Apelor si Protectiei Mediului (MAPM), or Ministry of Waters and Environmental Protection, officially opened the National Meteorological Forecast Center in Bucharest, where Romania's new integrated weather system will be headquartered.
The National Integrated Meteorological System, or SIMIN, will replace aging weather forecasting equipment and integrate modern environmental and meteorological sensors with ground-based radars and weather satellites. Lockheed Martin was awarded the $55 million SIMIN contract in 2000 and plans to complete the system installation by July 2003.
The Centrul National de Prognoza Meteorologica, or the National Meteorological Forecast Center, is located in a newly refurbished facility within the National Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Water Management S.A., Romania's weather research and forecasting organization.
General Director Marinel Ioana said the forecast center's opening represented an important first step for the institute, which has primary responsibility for SIMIN's successful introduction and use. "SIMIN provides us with the capability to issue a more accurate and timely forecast. This is especially important when we have severe weather events like the rain that caused the severe flooding this past summer. The system will, without doubt, help us in our efforts to alert our citizens and reduce property damage."
In addition to enduring some of the most extreme weather conditions in Central and Eastern Europe, Romania is challenged in communicating weather information within the country because it is bisected by the Carpathian Mountains. "With the opening of the national center, we will have in one place an integrated system which combines our institute's existing meteorological infrastructure with the latest in American technology," said Scientific Director Vladimir Ivanovici, Ph.D. "Our country's weather forecasting capabilities are greatly improved, since we can now, from one location, observe satellite imagery and data from the radars and surface observation stations, and almost instantly send it to our regional forecasting centers for their use in making local weather forecasts."
As part of its responsibilities as prime contractor, Lockheed Martin is integrating five of its S-band WSR-98D meteorological Doppler radars with four C-band weather radars made by two other companies. The SIMIN system will process the data provided by these different radars, into a single integrated product for the forecaster.
For more information, visit the SIMIN Web site at http://www.lockheedmartin.com/syracuse/radar/weather/IntegWeather/SIMIN/index.html and the Lockheed Martin Naval Electronics and Surveillance Systems—Radar Systems site at http://www.lockheedmartin.com/syracuse.
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As of 28 January 2003 Congress has not passed 11 of 13 appropriations bills funding federal activities for FY03. The administration will be releasing the FY04 budget in early February. As of this writing, all 11 bills that remain unpassed have been consolidated in what is termed an "omnibus" appropriations bill. That bill has been passed by both chambers and is now in conference committee.
A number of proposals for spending increases were sought on the Senate floor by amendment, and a few of them passed including drought relief. Now the bills will be subject to negotiation by members and staff among the leadership of both Houses and in the various appropriations committees
For FY03, the President did sign two bills (defense appropriations and military construction), but it is possible that there will be a series of continuing resolutions for other bills for the rest of the year until FY04 appropriations can be made for the beginning of the 2004 fiscal year on 1 October 2003.
Both an omnibus bill or a series of continuing resolutions will mean cuts for many programs of interest to AMS. At this time it is unclear whether cuts will be simply across the board for each spending bill (the Commerce, Justice, State and the Judiciary bill, for example, funds NOAA), whether they will be across the board for each agency funded by those bills, or across the board on every line item.
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On 8 January, Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) chaired a full Commerce, Science, and Technology hearing on climate change and variability. The purpose of the hearing was to get a jump on an issue that remains high on Congress' agenda—and that of the nation—and to highlight a bill, the "Climate Stewardship Act" (see related article) introduced by Senator McCain and Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-Connecticut), providing for caps on CO2 and other heat-trapping gases (eventually driving emissions down to Kyoto-like 1990 levels) and encourages the trading of emissions credits.
A number of representatives of the private sector, including nonprofit environmental groups, testified at the hearing. Senator Lieberman briefly made an appearance, as did Representative Christopher Shays (D-Connecticut), both in support of the concept of caps and trades. Representing the administration was James Mahoney, assistant secretary for oceans and atmosphere at NOAA.
The Senator's questions focused on the administration's approach to climate change and at times were a bit hostile. Mahoney responded to the skepticism by saying that the administration's strategy is the most prudent course, given the state of scientific knowledge and the serious implications for the economy of a more aggressive course of action in reducing CO2 emissions—especially given the reliance of the United States on fossil fuels and the failure (in the case of the Kyoto treaty) to require serious reductions in emissions for certain third-world countries. More information, he said, is needed before there should be an imposition of caps that actually reduce emissions in absolute terms in the U.S. The administration, he noted, is proposing a plan that would lower the rate of increase of greenhouse gas emissions. It is focusing on technologies to reduce those emissions and a voluntary program in industry to reduce emissions.
Mahoney also discussed the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan Workshop recently held in Washington, D.C., and the development of a new strategic plan that will provide direction for federal research on climate change over the next several years.
Mahoney noted that the workshop and strategic plan directly responds to President Bush's call that the best scientific information be developed to assist the United States in developing a well-reasoned approach to climate change issues. "If we fail to fully evaluate the scientific information bearing on global change, we would be subject to the justifiable criticism that our strategy to cope with potentially our largest-ever investment in environmental management would be seen as a 'ready-fire-aim' approach," Mahoney said.
Senator McCain largely rejected these arguments, saying that he did not think the administration's voluntary program "meets the urgency of the situation," while Senator Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) remarked rather sharply that it would take "flooding on the mall" in Washington to convince the administration that the problem is real and would change the administration's mind as to what actions to take.
Building on the need for a truly integrated global climate and ecosystem observation and data management system which was a key focus of the recent workshop, Mahoney also announced that the Bush administration will host an Earth Observation Summit to be held in the summer of 2003 for senior national and international officials who support global-scale environmental observations.
Only Senator Conrad Burns (R-Montana) was generally supportive of the administration's stance. He stated that he believed that "global warming" is real and a serious challenge to the United States; but he indicated that he is concerned that the McCain–Lieberman plan would hurt an American economy that is already weak. He said that he would not "participate in any kind of a program that exports more jobs."
To read Dr. Mahoney's full Senate testimony and for more information on the Climate Change Science Program and the draft strategic plan, please visit http://www.climatescience.gov.
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Senators John McCain (R-Arizona) and Joseph Lieberman (D-Connecticut) introduced a bill (S. 139) in early January that would provide a cap on CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions (reducing them by 2016 to Kyoto-like 1990 levels) and encourage trading in emissions credits. Titled the "Climate Stewardship Act," it marks a significant shift in McCain's views on capping greenhouse gas emissions, as Senator McCain had once been a vehement opponent of the Kyoto protocols. Senator McCain is the new shairman of the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, which has jurisdiction over many climate variability and change issues.
The bill would require dramatic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation, energy, commercial, and manufacturing sectors of the economy—as well as from motor vehicles. Its sponsors claim that it is the first comprehensive legislation that would dramatically reduce these emissions, including CO2.
The bill would require reductions in emissions to 2000 levels by 2010 and to 1990 levels by 2016. These reductions would in part be achieved by trading among corporations of "emissions allowances," with the process being overseen by the Commerce Department and the Environmental Protection Agency. (See related article for the establishment of the "Chicago Climate Exchange," which would provide a forum for trading emissions credits on a voluntary basis.)
With the Republicans now in control of the Senate, Senator McCain chairs the Commerce Committee, which has wide-ranging jurisdiction over many environmental issues. It remains to be seen whether his committee will have jurisdiction over this legislation or whether jurisdiction will rest with the Environment and Public Works Committee, which is chaired by Senator James M. Inhofe (R-Oklahoma), who is a strong critic of the Kyoto accords and of mandatory emissions caps (the Senate parliamentarian will decide this issue.).
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According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, El Niño has reached its "mature stage" and will linger through the end of spring. The latest advisory, issued 9 January reported that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained greater than 1°C (2°F) above average in December. Temperatures below the surface were above normal in the eastern Pacific, while cold subsurface temperatures were recorded in the western equatorial Pacific.
NOAA forecasters expect El Niño to continue to bring drier-than-average conditions around the Ohio Valley states and northern Rockies, wetter-than-average conditions along much of the southern tier of the nation, and warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier states and southern and southeast Alaska.
In late December and early January, El Niño has contributed much-needed precipitation to many parched areas of the country. For example, fall and winter storms along the Gulf and East Coasts have nearly ended the drought from Texas to Georgia, and along the entire East Coast. The precipitation has many wells and reservoirs in the eastern United States at near normal levels, with some even above normal.
In interior sections of the Southeast, some wells and reservoirs still remain below normal, according to NOAA. In California, rain and snow have been plentiful. While the snow pack has increased to above-normal levels, drought conditions remain throughout sections of the interior West and Great Plains.
Drought has continued with little improvement in most of Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. Colorado has experienced early-season snows, but much more is needed for significant drought relief, said Jim Laver, director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
Also, below-normal rain and snow for the past few months has not brought drought relief for North and South Dakota and Nebraska, and there has been little relief for drought-weary sections of Missouri and Kansas. Drought conditions extend from Michigan into southern Iowa, and could expand both northward and southward in coming months.
For more information see www.cpc.noaa.gov.
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The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) are testing a Web-based system for weather forecasting and winter road treatment that could soon save lives, cut costs, and help keep millions of drivers on the move. Highway officials and road crews in Des Moines and Ames, Iowa, will test the Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) from 3 February to 4 April.
Motor vehicle accidents involving bad weather (largely ice and snow) claim the lives of more than 6,000 Americans and injure almost half a million people each year. Nearly half of the nation's state transportation departments have already signed on as stakeholders in the MDSS, along with more than a dozen private firms. The latter are considering developing products and services around the core capabilities of the system.
The MDSS will help agencies better gauge where and when to use road treatments. This means providing more than a generic outlook such as "snow likely tonight," according to NCAR scientist William Mahoney, who is overseeing the development of the MDSS. "We need forecasts that are more specific, more timely, and tailored for decision makers who are not meteorologists."
Currently there is no national standard for linking weather outlooks to road conditions. Pavement can freeze or thaw in minutes over small areas, and it's difficult for road crews to handle all of these variations efficiently. The FHWA launched an initiative to address these and other weather-related hazards in 2000, choosing NCAR as the project leader because of its experience in developing short-range, fine-scale computer models and decision support tools.
To develop a prototype, NCAR has been working with the U.S. Army's Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Forecast Systems Laboratory, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Lincoln Laboratory. The end result pulls together existing road and weather data to create a user-friendly picture.
The MDSS uses several computer models to project hour-by-hour weather and road conditions up to two days in advance, with an update every three hours. The system will allow its users to view predicted weather and road conditions; monitor the potential for deteriorating road conditions; predict the impact of upcoming weather on specific road segments; assess treatment recommendations based on proven rules of practice; and devise a plan for anti-icing, deicing, plowing, or other road treatment.
Three state-run maintenance garages serving highways across central Iowa will also be testing MDSS this winter.. Each plowing route's predominant characteristics, such as pavement type, will be specified in advance. With such detail in hand, the system can assess how temperature combined with snow or ice will affect the road surface. Ultimately, users will be able to ask the system to track features as specific as a single bridge paved in concrete along an asphalt road. Using the MDSS display interface and an Internet connection, anyone interested will be able to view a portion of the real-time displays being used in the Iowa simulations.
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Like ballroom dancers on a crowded floor, aspects of the climate like El Niño, the Asian monsoons, and the North Atlantic influence each other's patterns, according to David M. Anderson, a scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Anderson, along with Anil K. Gupta from the Indian Institute of Technology in Kharagpur and Jonathan Overpeck, a professor of geosciences and director of the University of Arizona's Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, used sediments from the floor of the Arabian Sea near Oman to reconstruct monsoon strength in the region for the past 10,000 years. Their work appeared in the 23 January issue of Nature.
The authors suggest that the link between the North Atlantic climate and the Asian monsoon is a persistent aspect of global climate. The link was demonstrated previously by various researchers, but the new research examines a much longer time period—the past 10,000 years. The new study reveals substantial natural variation in climate and the monsoon in a time prior to any significant human influence. The new information may lead to improved predictions of the monsoon in the coming decades.
"The significance of these results lies in demonstrating a pattern of persistent variability in the monsoon throughout the Holocene (past 10,000 years to the present) that may be linked with episodic warming and cooling of the North Atlantic," said Anderson, who is with NOAA's paleoclimatology program in Boulder, Colorado.
"The results highlight the need to improve our understanding of abrupt—and difficult to predict—weakening in monsoon strength that could accompany abrupt climate shifts in the North Atlantic that may occur in the future," Anderson said.
The researchers used fossils of the plankton G. bulloides to estimate wind intensity. During a monsoon, the seasonal reversal of winds brings moisture from the ocean onto land. The winds also blow surface waters offshore, Overpeck said, causing an upwelling of colder, nutrient-rich water where the microscopic marine animals can thrive.
By counting the amount of G. bulloides present in different layers of the sediment and using radiocarbon dating, the scientists were able to approximate monsoon strength from 10,500 years ago up to the present. The resulting record showed a natural variation in the monsoon from one century to the next.
"While researchers aren't sure of the exact causes of the link between the North Atlantic and the Asian monsoon, earlier research showed the amount of snow on the Tibetan plateau may play a critical role," Overpeck said. As the land warms in the spring, the air rises above the land causing a pressure gradient that drives the monsoon.
"More snow on the plateau in spring or early summer uses up all the sun's heating because it has to be melted and evaporated before the land can warm," Overpeck said. "So the more snow you have in winter, the weaker the monsoon the following summer."
The authors speculate that when the North Atlantic is cold, areas downwind like the Tibetan plateau stay cold longer, allowing more snow to persist and setting up a weakened monsoon.
"The monsoon–snow cover link may lead to a stronger or more variable monsoon in the coming century as the Northern Hemisphere continues to warm faster than the Tropics," said Anderson.
Other studies show that changes in the amount of sunlight correlate to variations in both the North Atlantic climate and the Asian monsoon. The researchers aren't certain if the sun affects each system directly or if solar radiation influences the North Atlantic circulation, which in turn impacts the monsoon.
"More research is needed to identify the role of solar variability, and the remote influence of the North Atlantic climate," Anderson said.
In an earlier study, the authors found evidence from sediments in the same region showing an increase in monsoon strength in the past 400 years. Their work was published in the 26 July 2002 issue of Science. The new Nature paper is titled "Abrupt Changes in the Asian Southwest Monsoon during the Holocene and Their links to the North Atlantic Ocean."
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Severe drought conditions are continuing over most of the interior western states and the central and northern Plains, according to the latest drought assessment from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Conditions ranging from abnormal dryness to moderate drought extend across the Midwest from western Missouri to the Great Lakes. Forecasters added that precipitation is plentiful across the South and Northeast, although drought persists in northern Maine.
Thin snow pack is raising concerns that stream flows and water supplies will be low for the spring and summer in several western states, forecasters said in mid-January.
"The dryness in the Midwest is expected to continue during the next several months, although lake-effect snows will bring local improvement," said Douglas Lecomte, a NOAA CPC climatologist. "Rain or snow should bring improvement from the Southwest into the central Plains, while little significant change in the drought situation can be expected across the northern Plains and northern and central Rockies," he added.
Lecomte said the latest outlook raises concern that "serious water shortages" could occur this spring and summer in parts of the northern Rockies and northern Plains, if precipitation continues to be below normal. In contrast, forecast rain and snow later this winter should ease water concerns farther south from Arizona into New Mexico. "Some areas will continue to see low water supplies, even if normal or slightly above-normal precipitation occurs," Lecomte said.
The worst prospects for drought relief are in Montana and Wyoming, which are already mired in a multiyear drought, he added. Spring and summer stream flows are expected to be less than one-half of normal in several river valleys in both states.
"Because the last couple of years have been so dry, even normal snow pack this winter will not be enough to get many western states out of their drought, and snow pack is currently below normal in most states outside of California," Lecomte said.
Additionally, conditions have been unusually dry across much of the Midwest since fall, allowing drought to persist in some areas or expand in others. The winter pattern of an active jet stream dipping southward into the eastern United States brought drought-ending rain and snow to the East, but this pattern has left areas in the central part of the country and interior West cut off from Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean moisture sources.
In recent weeks, El Niño has contributed much-needed precipitation to many dry areas of the country. For example, fall and winter storms along the Gulf and East Coasts have nearly ended the drought from Texas to Georgia, and along the entire East Coast. The precipitation has many wells and reservoirs in the East at near normal levels, with some even above-normal.
Last summer, more than one-third of the nation experienced severe drought, making it one of the most expansive since the devastating droughts of the 1950s.
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The University of Oklahoma is creating a new research institute dedicated to linking the needs of the private meteorological community with the research capabilities of the many meteorological activities located at the university. The Sasaki Applied Meteorology Research Institute at the University of Oklahoma will be formally introduced at the AMS Annual Meeting this month in Long Beach, California.
Dr. Yoshi Sasaki was one of the founding professors of the School of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. Among his many contributions to meteorology was the adaptation of the esoteric (at that time) mathematics of variational analyses to environmental data. The 3DVAR and 4DVAR analysis techniques used today in many numerical weather prediction systems flow directly from the pioneering work of Yoshi Sasaki. He will serve as the honorary director of the institute.
"I believe this new venture will set the standard for private sector–academic partnerships, improve the transitions from research to operations, and enhance the meteorological support to the nation," said Elbert W. Friday, founding director of the institute and incoming AMS president.
For details, visit the University of Oklahoma booth (307) during the AMS Annual Meeting for the formal announcement of the creation of the Sasaki Institute and additional information on its mission and capabilities. There will be a conference on 20–22 May 2003, in Norman, Oklahoma, to initiate the institute.
For more information contact E. W. (Joe) Friday, Founding Director, Sasaki Applied Meteorology Research Institute, Sarkeys Energy Center, Room 754, 100 East Boyd St., Norman, Oklahoma 73069-0628; Phone: 405-325-4625, Fax: 405-325-4639, E-mail: joefriday@ou.edu.
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University of Maryland researchers have discovered by knowing the salt content of the ocean's surface, they may be able to improve the ability to predict El Niño events. Studying the western Pacific Ocean, the scientists found regional changes in the saltiness of surface ocean water correspond to changes in upper ocean heat content in the months preceding an El Niño event. Knowing the distribution of surface salinity may help predict events.
Salinity and temperature combine to dictate the ocean's density. Greater salinity, like colder temperatures, results in an increase in ocean density with a corresponding depression of the sea surface height. In warmer, fresher waters, the density is lower resulting in an elevation of the sea surface. These ocean height differences are related to the circulation of the ocean.
The surface salinity in two regions contributes to El Niño events: an area of warmer temperatures and lower salinity in the western Pacific, and the higher salinity and cooler temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Differences in surface salinity are related to changes in temperature and upper ocean heat content, which are part of the El Niño phenomenon. They have the potential to influence the Earth's climate through air–sea interaction at the ocean's surface.
The study, conducted for NASA by University of Maryland researchers Joaquim Ballabrera, Tony Busalacchi, and Ragu Murtugudde, is one of the first to look at ocean salinity in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions and their relationship to tropical sea surface temperatures, sea level, winds, and fresh water from rain. Results of the study are in the January Journal of Geophysical Research—Oceans.
Ballabrera and his colleagues looked at data from 1980 to 1995 on sea surface temperatures, winds, rainfall, evaporation, sea surface height, and latent heat, the energy released when water vapor condenses into droplets.
Using computer models, they performed a series of statistical predictions of the El Niño events for such a period. The results indicate short-term predictions only require monitoring sea surface temperatures, while predictions over a season require the observation of sea level. They concluded observations of salinity significantly improve predictions. When changes in salinity occur, they affect the El Niño event for the next 6 to 12 months. In this lag time, salinity changes have the potential to modify the layers of the ocean and affect the heat content of the western Pacific Ocean; the region where the unusual atmospheric and oceanic behavior associated with El Niño first develops.
"This research holds tremendous potential for the NASA Aquarius mission to monitor the surface salinity of the global ocean," Busalacchi said. Aquarius is scheduled for launch during 2006–2007. Aquarius will provide the first global maps of salt concentration on the ocean surface. Salt concentration is a key area of scientific uncertainty in the oceans' capacity to store and transport heat, which in turn affects the earth's climate and water cycle.
By using remote sensing data from satellites, scientists will be able to see changes in ocean salinity. Knowing the lag time factor, computer models simulating the movement of the atmosphere may be able to accurately predict El Niño episodes. This may lead to longer lead time for predictions of ENSO events.
The Florida State University, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Etudes Climatiques de l'Ocean Pacifique tropical program at Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, Centre de Noumea contributed ocean and atmosphere data to this study.
For more information and images, see: http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/2003/0114salt.html.
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The NOAA National Data Buoy Center has developed a new data buoy that is designed to give the agency faster response to service outages in its network of 70 data buoys located along the coasts of the continental United States, Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. The buoys supply information that is used in potentially life-saving marine forecasts and warnings. Tests of the new equipment and procedures are now underway in the Gulf of Mexico.
The NOAA National Data Buoy Center and the U.S. Coast Guard released a prototype of the new Air-Deployed, Self-Moored, Expendable (ADSMEX) buoy 60 miles south of Mobile, Alabama, in early January. In late January, an ADSMEX buoy was be deployed for testing in the Gulf of Alaska about 75 miles east of Fairweather Ground.
Approximately two weeks after each placement the Coast Guard will bring the test buoys back to the NDBC, where technicians will compare data gathered by the ADSMEX buoys against the existing conventional models.
NDBC officials are hopeful the tests will prove the ADSMEX buoys can restore marine data quickly and at a lower cost. Instead of using conventional buoys that must be transported by ship, tests will determine whether a smaller version can be deployed by an airplane, providing a quicker, less expensive alternative. The NDBC created the prototype ADSMEX buoy from modifications to existing buoy hardware in its inventory.
The network of data buoys supports many NOAA programs and provides data vital to the National Weather Service marine forecasts and warnings. "If a NOAA buoy suffers an outage, we need to get a replacement there quickly, and not lose any important data that is critical to marine safety," said Dr. Paul Moersdorf, director of the NBDC. Moersdorf added that using a ship to redeploy a buoy can take up to several weeks.
The ADSMEX buoy, designed to last up to six months, is equipped with a Geostationary Positioning System feature for tracking and can deploy a synthetic line strong enough to keep it anchored in the ocean floor in water as deep as 12,000 feet. The NDBC hopes this feature will help it withstand the roughest weather conditions.
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NASA and two Japanese government agencies are collaborating on a snowfall study over Wakasa Bay, Japan. Using NASA's Earth Observing System Aqua satellite, research aircraft, and coastal radars to gather data, the joint effort is expanding scientific knowledge about where precipitation falls.
Until now, the north Pacific's contributions to the global hydrologic cycle have been difficult to quantify. Precipitation measurements by satellite over open water are very important, because there are very few other ways to obtain the data. Snowfall is particularly difficult to measure from space even over the relatively uniform background of the ocean. New satellite instruments, that can detect precipitation over water, will give scientists data to help interpret how the hydrology of the Pacific Ocean impacts the United States and the world.
The Wakasa Bay Field Campaign is a combined research effort among NASA, the National Space Agency of Japan (NASDA), and the Japanese Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The campaign began on 3 January and runs through 14 February.
Wakasa Bay, located North of Osaka on the Sea of Japan, is known for its diverse weather in winter months. Ranging from extreme cold that brings Siberian air and accompanying snow into the region, to fast moving extratropical low pressure systems that consist primarily of rain at the surface, but originating as snowfall at higher altitudes.
A NASA P-3 Orion aircraft, from Wallops Island, Virginia, is flying over the bay and collecting data on snowfall and rainfall to compare to data being gathered by the Aqua satellite orbiting over the same area. The aircraft payload consists of five microwave sensors, each capable of uniquely observing precipitation and cloud properties.
On board Aqua is a Japanese-built Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) instrument. Some of the measurements will also be used for another field campaign concerning sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk and to compare with data from the AMSR instrument aboard the Japanese ADEOS-II satellite.
The Wakasa Bay experiment is designed to test the calculations and methods that scientists use to process satellite data. The P-3 Orion observations will be used to get precise values for the cloud and precipitation properties, such as the size distribution of the ice particles or raindrops that are currently assumed in the satellite calculations. By replacing the assumed data with precise observations from the P-3, scientists can determine the accuracy of the Aqua AMSR-E rainfall and snowfall estimates.
For more information and images, see http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/2003/0122japansnow.html.
The experiment's Web site is http://rain.atmos.colostate.edu/Wakasa.
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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), along with partners from leading multinational corporations, has announced a new voluntary effort to set goals improve air quality, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, save fuel, and protect public health. The program is called SmartWay Transport.
SmartWay Transport aims to reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from ground freight carriers such as trucks and locomotives. By 2012 this initiative aims to reduce as much as 18 million metric tons of carbon equivalent, and up to 200,000 tons of nitrogen oxides (NOx) annually. These reductions will create fuel savings of up to 150 million barrels of oil annually.
The companies are demonstrating that these efforts can also make good business sense by not only saving money but also helping the environment. Eventually participating corporations will earn SmartWay labels that will distinguish them as having made significant commitments to reducing emissions. This voluntary partnership was developed and modeled after EPA's highly successful Energy Star Program. Where Energy Star focuses on reducing pollution from consumer products and labeling energy efficient buildings, SmartWay Transport will help to reduce pollution from the vehicles that move these products to their destination.
EPA and its charter partners are presently working to finalize how program goals will be met. To be recognized as a SmartWay Transport partner companies may incorporate several environmental strategies and technologies.
The SmartWay Transport partners are accomplishing these important goals above and beyond what is required of them as part of EPA's regulatory programs. Charter SmartWay partners are Canon USA, Inc., Coca Cola, CSX, Federal Express Corporation, H-E-B Grocery Company, IKEA, Interface, Inc., Nike, Inc., Norm Thompson Outfitters, Roadway Corporation, Schneider National, Inc., UPS, and Yellow Transportation.
Additional information on SmartWay Transport is available at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/smartway/index.htm.
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The U.S. Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), located in the Environmental Sciences Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, has published several new reports online.
First, the CDIAC's 1751–1999 estimates of CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production, on global, regional, and national scales, are now available in "Trends Online" (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm). The estimate for 1999 global CO2 emissions, 6457 million metric tons of carbon, represents a 2.4% decline from 1998 and marks the second consecutive drop in global annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions.
Second, "Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations from the CSIRO GASLAB Flask Sampling Network" are now online at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/csiro/csiro_gaslab.html. Individual measurements were obtained from flask air samples returned to the CSIRO GASLAB from nine globally distributed stations (Alert, Northwest Territories, Canada; Cape Ferguson, Australia; Cape Grim, Australia; Estevan Point, British Columbia, Canada; Macquarie Island, Australia; Mauna Loa, Hawaii; Mawson, Antarctica; Shetland Islands, Scotland; and South Pole, Antarctica). The period of record begins as early as December 1990 (varies by station) and continues through December 2001. Average annual increases in concentration since the early 1990s range from 1.5 parts per million by volume per year (ppmv/yr; in Mawson) to 1.8 ppmv/yr (at Estevan Point).
Finally, CDIAC also released an updated database from the global ALE/GAGE/AGAGE monitoring network (DB1001; http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ndps/alegage.html), which provides continuous high-frequency measurements of methane, nitrous oxide, several halogenated hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and hydrogen. This database supports analyses and monitoring related to greenhouse gases and to the earth's ozone layer. Data through March 2002 are now available for all five existing sites: Cape Grim, Tasmania; Point Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and Trinidad Head, California (stations also previously existed at Cape Meares, Oregon, and Adrigole, Ireland).
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has finished on-orbit testing of a solar storm detector aboard GOES-12, one of two geostationary environmental satellites.
GOES-12 was launched in July 2001 and has been stored in orbit. Controllers at NOAA's Satellite Operations Control Center in Suitland, Maryland, are commanding the satellite out of storage and preparing it for operations. The satellite is equipped with an advanced instrument for real-time solar forecasting. The Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) aboard the satellite will enable forecasters and scientists to detect solar storms that could impact billions of dollars worth of assets.
The instrument will take a full-disk image of the sun's atmosphere once every minute. NOAA and the U.S. Air Force will use the images to monitor and forecast the sources of space weather disturbances from the sun. The images will enable forecasters to predict disturbances to the earth's space environment that can destroy satellite electronics, disrupt long-distance radio communications, or surge power grids.
The SXI is a small telescope that makes use of advanced technology and grazing incidence optics to allow it to see the sun's outer atmosphere, or corona, in X-rays. SXI lets solar forecasters see phenomena they could not otherwise view, such as coronal holes, whose high-speed winds cause geomagnetic storms, and to infer solar activity occurring behind the sun's edge, or limb. X-ray images are more accurate than white light images for identifying the location of flares.
The United States operates two environmental satellites in geostationary orbit 22,300 miles over the equator.
The images taken by the SXI will be available in real time to the public via the Internet through NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center website at: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/stp.html.
SXI imagery is available at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/sxi/.
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The president has nominated Charles E. McQueary of North Carolina, to be undersecretary for science and technology at the Department of Homeland Security. McQueary recently retired as president of General Dynamics Advanced Technology Systems. Prior to General Dynamics, he was with AT&T Lucent Technologies as president and vice president, and with AT&T Bell Laboratories as director and department head. McQueary holds a Ph.D. in engineering mechanics, and an M.S. and B.S in mechanical engineering, all awarded by the University of Texas, Austin.
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