Editor: Jim Elliott
Contributor: Stephanie Kenitzer
Copy Editor: Marcie Weber and Laurence Constable
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With more than 2900 attendees, including registrants, students, and exhibitors, the American Meteorological Society’s 82nd Annual Meeting in Orlando last month was a success.
Built on two interdisciplinary symposia, “Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction” and “Environmental Applications: Facilitating the Use of Environmental Information,” the meeting also featured the first AMS WeatherFest and Communications Workshop, the second Presidential Policy Forum, the first Student Conference, special symposia honoring David Atlas and Richard Reed, and more than 130 companies in nearly 275 booths in the exhibit hall.
More than 500 people from the local community attended AMS WeatherFest, the first public outreach effort at an AMS Annual Meeting. During the 3-hour open house/science fair they were treated to hands-on science experiments and presentations ranging from storm chasing to aviation weather.
More than 40 people attended the first half-day Communications Workshop, a hands-on media training session to strengthen the community’s relationship with the media. The workshop included a panel discussion with Max Mayfield, National Hurricane Center director; Jeff Gaffney, senior scientist at the Argonne National Laboratory; Peter Spotts, science reporter for the Christian Science Monitor; and Sid Perkins, science reporter with Science News.
The second Presidential Policy Forum was devoted to the discussion entitled, “Society and The Society: How Can the American Meteorological Society Better Serve Society’s Needs?” Two panels of highly respected experts were asked to comment on specific questions relating to trends in the meteorological needs of society, meeting societal needs in the aftermath of September 11, professional challenges AMS will face in the years to come, and how AMS may expand its services and science to better comply with the needs of the society at large. (See related story, which is next.)
The First AMS Student Conference was a huge success. The conference, attended by over 170 senior and first-year graduate students, included 36 poster presentations and 17 participants in the career fair. The conference and career fair focused on active areas and emerging opportunities in the atmospheric and related sciences and included invited speakers from the private, academic, and government sectors, and a special session on UCAR–NCAR. Highlights of the conference included the luncheon address by Prof. G. O. P. Obasi, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, with his talk focusing on International Cooperation in Meteorology; and the closing address given by Dr. William H. Hooke, Director of the AMS Atmospheric Policy Program and Senior Policy Fellow, former director of NOAA’s U.S. Weather Research Program. Dr. Hooke offered his thoughts to the students as they embark on their new careers.
Funding for this conference was provided by donations made by members to the AMS 21st Century Campaign. Education is a key component of the campaign, which is in place to raise the necessary funds for events, such as the Student Conference, that help to provide support and encouragement to the future leaders of the atmospheric and related sciences. Because of the funding from the campaign, AMS did not have to charge registration fees.
The annual awards banquet was held on Wednesday 16 January, at which the many AMS award winners were honored. The gathering concluded on Thursday 17 January with a closing keynote address by Erik Larson, author of the popular book Isaac’s Storm, a story of the 1900 Galveston, Texas, hurricane.
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The AMS held its second Presidential Policy Forum at the Annual Meeting last month. The forum was devoted to the discussion entitled, “Society and The Society: How Can the American Meteorological Society Better Serve Society’s Needs?”
Two panels of highly respected experts were asked to comment on specific questions relating to trends in the meteorological needs of society, meeting societal needs in the aftermath of September 11, professional challenges AMS will face in the years to come, and how AMS may expand its services and science to better comply with the needs of the society at large. The first panel consisting of Bryan Hannegan, staff scientist, minority, Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee; Jerry Skees, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kentucky; Michael Crow, Executive Vice Provost, Columbia University; and Ann Kellan, host of CNN’s Science and Technology Week, represented the perspectives of the larger society discussing the societal needs for atmospheric science and services.
Major points stressed by Hannegan included the need for the continual improvement in operational weather forecasting and an increased understanding of climate on all scales. He strongly believed that by improving forecasts it would be possible to relieve stresses on human systems, natural systems, and eventually entire ecosystems. In the wake of September 11 he also identified the needs for an increased effort to improve the understanding of chemical release scenarios as well as the modeling of actual events in order to improve emergency aid preparedness. He noted that by adding a focus on applied meteorology and increasing participation in policy decisions, AMS can ensure that future societal needs are met.
While Hannegan discussed the need to become more involved in policy decisions, Skees warns that good science does not always lead to good policy. According to Skees many of the advancements in science cannot be effectively used without changing existing policy and rules. This can be applied in the case of September 11 as well as existing natural disaster relief policies. He asked that institutions and technology work together to solve social problems related to atmospheric, hydrologic, and oceanic sciences. As the community increases and improves data availability for both scientists and policy makers there is greater chance for good science to lead to good policy decisions.
Crow took a slightly different perspective on the questions asked, stressing the need for meteorological and climate sciences to move away from traditional science toward a more integrated form of science. In his description this new form of science would focus on societal outcomes as the driver for science and forecasting. Thus, science would not be viewed as separate from policy and other societal actions but rather integrated with these. Crow challenged those present, as well as those associated with greater responsibility for social outcomes, to embrace the complexities of science.
The final member of the panel to speak on behalf of the large society was Kellan. As a representative of the media, she stressed the need for increased communication between scientists and the media. Noting the success of the 1997 campaign to educate the public about the El Niño phenomenon, she urged for similar assistance from the scientific community. The media cannot accurately represent scientific findings and events without the cooperation and involvement of those scientists taking part in the most current and cutting edge research. Working together, scientists and the media can successfully communicate to the society at large.
The second panel represented the perspective of the American Meteorological Society. Rick Anthes, President of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research; Elbert Friday, Director of the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council; Peter Ungaro, Vice President at IBM; and Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist at WGN/TV, Chicago, Illinois, represented various facets of the AMS community including academics, public sector, private sector, and commercial sector.
From an academic point of view Anthes stressed the intertwining of science and policy and the need to prioritize what AMS can do in the long and short terms for society. According to Anthes, “meteorology is a global science ready to attack large and complex global scale problems. We therefore as a society and as a nation should reevaluate our role in the global society and learn to work with other countries and cultures to solve social problems.”
Representing the view of the public sector Friday supported the development and distribution of more sophisticated and accurate datasets for use by scientists, policymakers, and the public. Continuing their tradition of educating both scientists and the public alike, AMS has already initiated and supported short courses and public outreach programs to educate and enhance society’s understanding of the atmospheric, hydrologic, and oceanic sciences. Friday also believes that due to easy access to weather information and data, many policymakers may not appreciate the complexity required to understand and develop models and forecasts seen every day. He hopes that by working more closely with policymakers it will be possible to come to a general understanding of the importance of accurate presentation of information and help to benefit society.
Ungaro represented the private sector, focusing on the impact of technology on society, especially in the age of the World Wide Web. With the amazing potential of e-business technology and the globalization of many organizations, it will be necessary for scientists involved in both research and academics to reevaluate their place in the global community. AMS and society can both benefit from advancements in technology to help understand and solve some of society’s most challenging problems.
Skilling supported Friday’s idea that the media, policymakers, and the public have difficulty understanding how much work is required to present seemingly easy computer models and weather forecasts. He also identified the lack of media representation the meteorological community received during and after the September 11 event. Members of this scientific community would have been useful in answering questions regarding air quality and pollutant dispersion concerns.
By taking the advice of both members of the Society and those individuals in the greater community, AMS will be able to deal with the ever-increasing societal problems requiring technical and scientific solutions. Through working with media, policymakers, and researchers, AMS can work toward benefiting all of society and realizing the true global nature of meteorology and other related environmental sciences.
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The American Meteorological Society (AMS) has named Elbert W. Friday, Director of the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., president elect. Friday will serve as president in 2003.
Prior to joining the National Research Council, Friday served for 16 years as deputy director and then director at the National Weather Service. His work there earned him the Federal Executive of the Year Award from the Federal Executive Institute Alumni Association in 1993, the National Weather Association’s 25th Anniversary Award in 2000, and the AMS’s Cleveland Abbe Award in 1998. He was an AMS councilor from 1987 to 1989.
Friday served in the U.S. Air Force from 1961 to 1981, where among many duties he was detachment commander in South Vietnam, acting squadron commander in Thailand, and chief weather officer in the Special Projects Division of the Air Force Global Weather Center at Offutt AFB in Nebraska. Friday received numerous military medals, including a Bronze Star, a Defense Superior Service Medal, and two Meritorious Service Medals.
A native of DeQueen, Arkansas, Friday received his B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Oklahoma in Norman and was a distinguished graduate of the Air Force Command and Staff College and a graduate of the Air War College at Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama.
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The AMS is proud to salute an Olympic first—a unique partnership between the U.S. government, private meteorologists, and the academic community that will provide support and share forecast responsibilities for the XIX Olympic Winter Games, 8–24 February 2002, and the VII Paralympic Games, 7–16 March. The Weather Support Group, coordinated by the Salt Lake Organizing Committee, will provide timely and accurate weather forecasts for the athletes, Games organizers, spectators, and service providers. The February Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has an article by John Horel et al. discussing the Olympic Weather Support System in detail, highlighting the cooperation between NOAA, the private sector, and the University of Utah.
To commemorate the 2002 Olympic Winter Games, NOAA and the AMS, with the approval of the Salt Lake Olympic Organizing Committee, created a special pin. The Olympic pin depicts a storm moving from west to east through the U.S. Intermountain Region. It uses meteorological symbols depicting the storm moving from the west, past the Great Salt Lake, through the valleys and mountains of the Wasatch Front and moving on toward the Rocky Mountains. The colors, in Southwest tones, symbolize the Native American influence in Utah and throughout the West. Four mountains on the pin represent each of the partners—the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Weather Service, the University of Utah’s Department of Meteorology, the KSL-TV sponsored team of 13 private meteorologists, and the Salt Lake Organizing Committee.
Proceeds from the purchase of this limited edition Olympic pin will be used to support AMS educational programs including AMS scholarships and student travel to special conferences such as the 10th Conference on Mountain Meteorology in June 2002. The pin sells for $10. Prepaid orders may be sent to Order Department, American Meteorological Society, 45 Beacon St., Boston, MA 02108. Please make checks payable to the American Meteorological Society. If using Visa, MasterCard, or American Express, you may place your order by phone to (617) 227-2426, ext. 209 or 237, or by e-mail to amsorder@ametsoc.org.
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Student applications for the 2002 AMS Atmospheric Policy Colloquium, to be held in Washington, D.C., 2–11 June, and the AMS–UCAR 2002–03 Congressional Fellowship must be submitted by 1 March.
The AMS Summer Policy Colloquium will bring a select group to Washington, D.C., from 2 to 11 June 2002 for an intense 10-day immersion in atmospheric policy. The colloquium will
Total enrollment—including competitively accepted graduate students plus paying participants—is limited to 50. Complete details on the application process are available on the AMS Web site at http://www.ametsoc.org/ams.
The AMS Congressional Science Fellowship program is a unique opportunity to spend a full year in the U.S. Congress working on science policy issues. The fellowship term is from 1 September 2002 to 31 August 2003. Each fellow is free to choose from a wide variety of positions within Congress. He or she will spend the year on Capitol Hill with over 30 fellows from other professional societies. A stipend of $47,000 is provided and up to $10,000 for moving, travel, and other expenses.
Applicants must have a Ph.D. or equivalent in the atmospheric or related sciences, be a member of AMS (or applying), be a U.S. citizen, and be comfortable working with people from diverse professional backgrounds and under demanding deadlines. Federal employees are not eligible.
Applications are due to the AMS by 1 March 2002. Application details are available on the AMS Web site at http://www.ametsoc.org/ams or by contacting Dr. William Hooke at the AMS, (202) 737-9006, ext. 420, or e-mail, hooke@dc.ametsoc.org.
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The AMS Council approved an AMS statement on probability forecasts at its meeting at the Annual Meeting last month. The statement outlines the current situation, opportunities, and challenges inherent in using probability forecasts. According to the statement, much of the informational content of meteorological data, models, techniques, and forecaster thought processes are not being conveyed to the users of weather forecasts. Making and disseminating forecasts in probabilistic terms would correct a major portion of this shortcoming. It would allow the user to make decisions based on quantified uncertainties with resulting economic and social benefits. Widespread implementation of probability forecasts would require forecasters to become more familiar with user needs, and users to be educated on probability forecasts and how to make optimum use of this new information. The American Meteorological Society endorses probability forecasts and recommends their use be substantially increased. The complete statement is available at the AMS Web site.
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The Institute for Scientific Information had cited the AMS Journal of Climate for its increased citation rates in the area of global change. The Journal of Climate is ranked in the top 25 (the very top) as follows (ranking dates, 1991 to November 2001):
ISI Essential Science Indicators, http://www.isinet.com/products/rsg/products/esi, is a new Web-based compilation of science indicators and trend data derived from the ISI database, focusing on highly cited papers, authors, organizations, journals, and nations. It combines these data with editorial content to highlight important results. In the latest analysis, the Journal of Climate was among those whose citation rate in the field of global warming was increasing most rapidly in the past decade. Being highly cited generally reflects the high regard in which this journal’s work is held by the scientific community. David Randall is chief editor of the Journal of Climate.
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Erwin K. Kauper, the owner of California-based Metro Monitoring Service, has been awarded $50,000 as the second winner of The Aquila Prize, a 3-year weather forecasting competition. The award was presented by the Aquila subsidiary of UtiliCorp United (NYSE:UCU) at the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting in Orlando last month.
Kauper won the forecasting competition for preparing and making the most accurate probabilistic temperature forecast for six 3-month periods from March through October 2001 covering 13 cities across the United States.
Kauper has provided weather consulting services to the U.S. government and the movie and television industry for more than 30 years. The first phase of the competition was won by Andy Weingarten, a meteorologist for APB Energy, a Louisville, Kentucky, energy brokerage firm.
Kauper’s forecast was evaluated by Aquila, one of the largest energy wholesaling and risk management companies in North America. The contest results were independently verified by the AMS through its subcontractor, The University of Arizona.
Kauper’s career in weather started in World War II in which he served as a weather officer for the U.S. Army Air Corps in both the United States and the Pacific region. After retiring from the armed services as a lieutenant colonel, Kauper returned to his home in the Los Angeles area and founded Metro Monitoring Services, a company that operated U.S. weather observation stations for the federal government. In 1984 he acquired Allied Weather Consultants, which provides forecasting and climatologic services to the movie and television industry.
For both the first phase and second phase of the scientific competition, participants submitted probabilistic forecasts of heating degree-days or cooling degree-days for Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, New York City, Dallas, Philadelphia, Portland, Tucson, Des Moines, Las Vegas, Nashville, Minneapolis, and Sacramento. Heating degree-days or cooling degree-days are weather parameters used by the energy industry to project consumption. Competition participants posted their forecasts at GuaranteedWeather.com.
The Aquila Prize competition is open to all private sector corporations, university groups, and university or federally affiliated laboratories. Rules for the contest were developed in collaboration with the AMS and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Aquila plans to award $300,000 over the 3-year period of the competition. More information is available at http://www.aquila.com.
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The book Automated Weather Stations for Application in Agriculture and Water Resources Management is now available for purchase. Contributors were drawn from a workshop of the same name held in the first week of March 2000 in Lincoln, Nebraska. This workshop was cosponsored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the World Meteorological Organization, and the High Plains Regional Climate Center at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln.
The book gives a broad outlook on present day usage and future perspectives on remote automated weather stations. This book should prove useful to anyone interested in weather data collection, data management, quality control, network accuracy, and applications of weather data.
This book is now available from the High Plains Regional Climate Center for the cost of $20.00. To order the book, send your mailing information and payment to High Plains Regional Climate Center, attn. Elaine, University of Nebraska, 246 LW Chase Hall, Lincoln, NE 68583-0728; e-mail, econnelly1@unl.edu; phone, (402) 472-6706; fax, (402) 472-6614.
A manual for the calibration and maintenance of the Nebraska Network of Automated Weather Stations is available at http://hprcc.unl.edu [under Climate Data (AWDN)].
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U.S. collegiate enrollments in graduate-level science and engineering (S&E) fields rose in fall 2000 for the second year in a row following several years of declines, according to a new National Science Foundation data brief from the Division of Science Resources Statistics.
However, the entire year 2000 increase, and then some, was due to the largest ever, single-year increase in foreign student enrollees who held temporary visas. The 2000 graduate S&E enrollments rose a modest 0.8% over 1999, reaching 414 570—the highest number since 1996. The all-time high was in 1993, when more than 435 700 enrolled as full-time graduate students.
But the numbers declined for the next five years. In 1998, less than 405 000 students enrolled in S&E graduate programs nationwide, representing the lowest total for the decade. In 2000, S&E graduate students with temporary visas reached an all-time high of more than 121 800. From 1998 through 2000, their numbers jumped by more than 19%, far exceeding the overall increase of the last two enrollment years.
“In the mid-1990s, the numbers of students with temporary visas went down fairly sharply when the Chinese Student Protection Act of 1992 made thousands of Chinese students eligible to receive permanent resident visas,” Joan Burrelli, author of the data brief, says. “The recent increases, we believe, are tied to more foreign students coming to the U.S. to study computer science and electrical engineering.”
For more information, see http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/databrf/nsf02306/db02306.htm.
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Following is a summary of the final FY02 budgets for government agencies with major responsibilities for atmospheric and related sciences and services. All budget figures are rounded.
| FY01 appropriations |
Administration’s FY02 request |
FY02 appropriations |
| $3,212,800 |
$3,152,000 |
$3,350,000 |
The entire NOAA appropriation for FY02 was quite positive, reflecting both the administration’s requests for important increases in funding but also solid support for NOAA in Congress. From this we might infer an increased awareness by decision makers in the federal government of the importance of NOAA’s weather and climate and the need for increased funding to provide the information on which policy, as well as business and economic, decisions are made.
| FY01 appropriations |
Administration’s FY02 request |
FY02 appropriations |
| $692,800 |
$727,600 |
$743,100 |
According to NWS Administrator Gen. Jack Kelly, the FY02 appropriations were the best that the Weather Service has had in recent history. Overall, the appropriation is quite good, with few, if any, substantial disappointments.
The AMS weighed in with members of Congress and key staff on funding issues the Society deems important, addressing a few items that were top priorities during the appropriations process. These items were increases in adjustments to base (ATB), as well as increased funding for data assimilation, the Coop Network, and Alaska buoys.
Highlights of the FY02 appropriation include a $24.3 million increase in ATB, which prominently includes funding for congressionally mandated pay raises but also other basic items that, were there not an adequate ATB, would be funded by cutting into other NWS programs.
Other highlights include $1.9 million for the Coop Network, an increase over FY01, though somewhat less than the administration requested. Additions beyond the FY01 appropriations include $1.2 million for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data assimilation efforts, as well as a $1.7 million increase in base funding for the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center. This would seem to indicate an increased focus by both the administration and Congress on observations and the opportunities available in improved data assimilation.
| FY01 appropriations |
Administration’s FY02 request |
FY02 appropriations |
| $350,400 |
$340,800 |
$356,100 |
OAR’s appropriation for FY02 was almost uniformly favorable, with a substantial increase over FY01 appropriations and increases in a number of programs over the administration’s requests. In weather, climate, and air quality programs, there was an across-the-board inflationary increase. There were a number of congressional add-ons or “earmarks,” but funding them did not result in decreases to other programs.
Highlights include stability in climate and global change program funding, with an appropriation in FY02 of $73.7 million, an increase of approximately $1.5 million over FY01 funding, and an increase of approximately $1.1 million over the administration’s request. There was also an increase for FY02 of $12.5 million in climate observation and services, for a total of $24.6 million. With respect to the latter, it should be noted, the administration requested $24 million, and it is looking as if there will be still further increases in the yet-to-be-released FY03 federal budget.
The community should benefit from a substantial increase in funding for the U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP), a program involving interagency cooperation (among NOAA, NSF, NASA, and the U.S. Navy) and which focuses on such high priority areas as hurricane landfalls and the optimal mix of observations and quantitative precipitation forecasts. USWRP will receive $2.75 million in FY02, which is an increase of $1.25 million over FY01 funding, though less than the President’s request of $3.75 million for FY02.
There were also a number of congressional add-ons to the USWRP. For FY02, Congress included $3 million for an air quality forecasting pilot program, $3 million for a high-resolution temperature forecasting pilot program (which can be of tremendous value to the energy and power industries), and $1 million for a New England Air Quality Study. With additional items, these earmarks total approximately $7.85 million.
| FY01 appropriations |
Administration’s FY02 request |
FY02 appropriations |
| $640,000 |
$738,000 |
$704,300 |
NESDIS joined the National Weather Service and OAR in receiving a positive FY02 appropriation, though there were a few relatively minor disappointments. For the most part, existing programmatic shortfalls were addressed, and the administration was largely supportive of needed increases—with a few distinct exceptions.
There was an overall increase in ESOS, the Environmental Satellite Observing Systems, funding over FY01 of approximately $7 million, but not as much as needed and substantially below the President’s request of an additional $7 million beyond that. Of special concern here was a decrease of approximately $4 million in Product Processing and Distribution over FY01, which affects hazards information and search and rescue operations, among other functions. However, there was an increase (though less than the administration requested) in Product Development, Readiness, and Application funding, including $750,000 for a joint center with NASA.
There was also a disappointment in the NESDIS Data Centers and Information Services account, most especially in the Archive, Access, and Assessment programs, which were practically flat funded at $44.6 million, that is, with little increase for inflation. However, this was above the administration’s request by approximately $6 million.
In Polar Orbiting Systems, there was a substantial increase from the FY01 appropriation of $203 million to $296 million for FY02, which was precisely the amount requested by the administration. In geostationary systems, an appropriation of $286 million in FY01 declined to $262 million in FY02, and while this is below the administration’s request by $27 million, the longer-than-expected life of systems in place means that this will not result in a reduction in geostationary observation services.
Finally, as part of increased national security efforts, NESDIS received $3.5 million to improve redundancies in facilities on the ground.
National Science Foundation (no figures available).
The National Science Foundation had not finalized their budget at publication time. The results of the budget allocations that are of interest to our communities will be summarized in a future issue of the AMS Newsletter.
| FY01 appropriations* |
Administration’s FY02 request |
FY02 appropriations* |
| $1,762,000 |
$1,714,000 |
$1,626,000 |
*In FY01 and FY02, “Institutional Support” was added to these actual appropriations, whereas this item had not appeared in FY00 or before.
The final appropriation for NASA’s Earth Sciences Enterprise (ESE) Program was quite positive. There have been actual reductions from FY01 to FY02, but this reflects a natural “ramp down” in some ESE programs.
Overall, in the Major Development account there was a decrease between FY01 and FY02 in appropriations of $84 million to $753 million in FY02, which, however, was a $44 million increase over the administration’s request for FY02. Prominent in this decline is a decrease in Earth Observing System's (EOS’s) first series funding in FY02 of $276 million, which is a decrease of $83 million from FY01. But funding was provided to the extent needed in this program and fully met the administration’s request. The lower level of funding in FY02 reflects a ramp down in program costs for this fiscal year.
NASA received an FY02 appropriation of $110 million for EOS Follow-on, an increase of $55 million from the FY01 appropriation. There was also an increase of $12 million for EOS Data Information Systems, to a total of $293 million in FY02.
As for the Earth Explorers line item, there was a decline of $67 million in spending for FY02. This is the result of problems with one mission and the fact that the Triana satellite lost its place on the space shuttle and will have to wait for available space sometime in the future. Triana measures changes in the dynamic composition of the atmosphere over the course of the day, that is, the interaction of the sun on the earth throughout a 24-hour period. Another satellite mission primarily designed to measure forest canopy in 3D is having technical problems and has been dropped back to a demonstration mode. Funding for FY02 was decreased accordingly.
In the Research and Technology Account, $580 million was appropriated in FY01, while $537 million was appropriated for FY02. The administration had only requested $517 million, and the downward trend is not regarded as a serious problem.
It should be noted that a significant part of the $17 million in general reductions to ESE was taken from the Research and Technology portion of the budget, specifically the Earth Science Program Science (ESPS) segment [more specifically, the Research and Analysis line item, though some of the decrease here (from $170 million in FY01 to the $156 million in FY02) reflects an administrative backlog in funding grant applications].
Positive highlights in ESPS include an increase of $4 million in information systems, to bring this up to $14 million of funding for FY02. This is another line item seemingly indicative of an increased emphasis by both the administration (which requested a $2 million increase over the $8 million FY01 actual appropriation) and Congress on increasing observations and data analysis.
Within the Applications, Commercialization, and Education (ACE) portion of Research and Technology, $51 million was excised from the budget that funded commercial remote sensing. Also included in FY02 in this item, however, is new funding of $1 million for outreach within ACE, as well as an increase of $3.7 million for FY02 over the $42 million spent in FY01 for Applications Research and Analysis. This was also the line item that was loaded up with a number of earmarks, but their funding was not taken from the program base expenditures in either Major Development or Research and Technology.
| FY01 appropriations |
Administration’s FY02 request |
FY02 appropriations |
| $129,704 | $129,469 | $128,900 |
The FY02 appropriation for BER’s Environmental Processes Program is $128.9 million, approximately $500,000 less than the administration’s request.
Overall the BER’s FY02 appropriation is approximately $70 million more than the administration’s request.
Most of the increase results from Congressional add-ons to the Medical Application and Measurement Science Program. The Administration request for FY02 in this area was $51 million, $45 million less than in FY01. However, the FY02 appropriation approved by Congress was $123 million.
The FY02 appropriations for the Life Sciences and Environmental Remediation Programs are at essentially the same level as in FY01.
Within the Environmental Processes Program, the appropriation for Climate and Hydrology is $70.3 million; Atmospheric Chemistry and Carbon Cycle, $34.7 million; Ecological Processes, $12.4 million; and Human Interactions, $8.1 million. All programs are at essentially the same level as in FY01.
The net result is that all programs will proceed generally along the lines indicated in the administration’s request and as described in the special federal budget issue of the AMS Newsletter of May 2001.
| FY01 appropriations |
Administration’s FY02 request |
FY02 appropriations |
| $201,717 |
$159,483 |
$205,826 |
The administration proposed substantial cuts in almost all of the USGS Water Programs (excepting the Hydrologic Research and Development and the Cooperative Water Program), but in all cases funds were largely restored by Congress for FY02 to near or above previously appropriated levels.
Of special interest to AMS is USGS’s National Streamgaging Network, which is used by the National Weather Service (as well as other agencies, for a variety of purposes) as part of its mandated flood prediction responsibilities. From $14.1 million appropriated in FY01, the Administration proposed a cut to $9.3 million. This figure, however, was increased by Congress to $14.3 million. As part of the overall streamgaging effort, it should be noted, additional funds are provided by other federal agencies, and there are substantial matching funds provided by the states. The entire funding for the Streamgaging Network will be $105 million for FY02.
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A new NASA study finds that climate warming over the next century will bring potential flooding in winter, as a result of increased streamflow throughout California. The study also finds less water would be available during the summer months.
Norman Miller and Kathy Bashford of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Eric Strem of the National Weather Service’s (NWS’s) California–Nevada River Forecast Center looked at two climate change scenarios projected out to the year 2100. Based on these scenarios, they determined how the smallest to largest expected changes in regional temperature and precipitation would affect streamflow throughout California.
The two scenarios, both warmer and wetter than present day, were based on findings from the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. The report predicted temperature increases by as much as 9°F with potential localized fluctuations in precipitation throughout the twenty-first century. The researchers evaluated climate change projections for three time periods: 2010–2039, 2050–2079, and 2080–2100. The projections included increases in temperature between 2.7°F (1.5°C) to 9.0°F (5.0°C) and changes in precipitation from 0.0% to 30.0%.
Miller and his colleagues used the precipitation and temperature data from the climate change scenarios as input into the NWS River Forecast System, which is composed of computer models that can simulate river flow, soil moisture, and snowpack.
California’s wet season stretches from December to March. In general, regardless of changes in precipitation during this period, the results showed snowmelt-driven watersheds will experience increased streamflow up to 2 months earlier in the year, depending on the elevation of the watershed.
One of the main reasons for this is that global warming will reduce the number of freezing days in the season, increase early melt, and decrease the seasonal snow storage. “The results suggest that 50% of the season runoff will have occurred early in the year for many snowmelt-driven watersheds in the west,” says Miller, “and the resulting early snowmelt implies higher streamflow increases and an increased likelihood of more flood events in future years.”
Projections of water flow are based on the amount of snow the mountainous areas get in wintertime, evident by the snowline and the timing of the snowmelt. Precipitation in the western United States is primarily a winter phenomena, and in California, 1 April has been established as the date for determining the amount of water resources available for the growing season.
To understand how future climate change will impact water resources, it is important to understand historical climate. The researchers looked at data from 1963 to 1992 for annual high river flow and ranked them. They then applied the same technique to future climate river flows and found the likelihood of high annual flows increased. They concluded that some increased flooding could be expected regardless of the future climate outcomes, location, or elevation of watersheds.
Currently there is a coordinated study underway between LBNL and the NWS to incorporate new remotely sensed satellite data with real-time flood forecasting to reduce the risks associated with floods. Miller and his colleagues used a similar approach to successfully predict the 1995 floods of the Russian River in northern San Francisco Bay area 48 hours in advance.
This work was partially supported by NASA, the California Water Resources Research and Applications Center, and by a grant through the California Energy Commission.
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Human activity has affected the earth’s surface temperature during the last 130 years, according to a study published in the January issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research. Robert K. Kaufmann of Boston University’s Center for Energy and Environmental Studies and David I. Stern of the Australian National University’s Centre for Resource and Environmental Study analyzed historical data for greenhouse gas concentrations, human sulfur emissions, and variations in solar activity between 1865 and 1990. The greenhouse gases studied included carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons 11 and 12.
Using the statistical technique of cointegration, the scientists compared these factors over time with global surface temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Cointegration techniques are not confused by variables that tend to increase or decrease over time or contain some poorly measured observations. As such, this is the first study to make a statistically meaningful link between human activity and temperature, independent of climate models, Kaufmann notes.
They found that eliminating any one variable—greenhouse gases, human sulfur emissions, or solar activity—made the errors larger; that is, all of those factors taken together are needed to explain changes in the earth’s surface temperature.
They found also that the impact of human activity has been different in the two hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere, the warming effect of greenhouse gases was almost exactly offset by the cooling effect of sulfur emissions, making the temperature effects difficult to observe. In the Southern Hemisphere, where human sulfur emissions are lower, the effects are easier to see, they write.
Kaufmann says, “the countervailing effects of greenhouse gases and sulfur emissions undercut comments by climate change skeptics, who argue that the rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases between the end of World War II and the early 1970s had little effect on temperature.” During this period, he says, “the warming effect of greenhouse gases was hidden by a simultaneous increase in sulfur emissions. But, since then, sulfur emissions have slowed, due to laws aimed at reducing acid rain, and this has allowed the warming effects of greenhouse gases to become more apparent.”
Analysis of the data indicates that doubling the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide from its preindustrial level will increase Northern Hemispheric temperature by 4.1° to 6.3°F (2.3° to 3.5°C). In the Southern Hemisphere, the increase will be between 3.1° and 4°F (1.7° and 2.2°C), the scientists say, noting that this doubling is expected to be achieved over the next century.
Kaufmann observes that, while to some, these projected changes may seem small, during the last ice age, more than 15 000 years ago, the earth’s global temperature was only 5° to 9°F (3° to 5°C) cooler than it is now.
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According to NASA scientists, a new technique could raise the bar for predicting seasonal precipitation by 10% to 20% for all seasons in the United States.
The new method looks at changes in sea surface temperatures in various ocean basins, then weighs their individual impacts on regional climate to greatly increase predictability of precipitation during all seasons. Changes in sea surface temperatures strongly influence atmospheric winds, climate, and weather.
“The paper presents results applied to the U.S. continent, where we show that the potential predictability can be raised 10% to 20% above traditional methods,” said William Lau, a senior researcher at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of the paper. “The scheme can be applied to other regions as well. It raises the bar for seasonal and interannual climate forecasts.”
The study will be published in an upcoming issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Currently, scientists rely on climate patterns derived from global sea surface temperatures to forecast precipitation for the U.S. winter. For example, rising warm moist air creates tropical storms during El Niño years, a period of above average temperatures in the waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. These storms interact with the jet stream, causing it to steer southward during U.S. winters. The altered jet stream directs more storms and rain over the West Coast and the southern states.
When climatologists use global sea surface temperatures to forecast U.S. winter precipitation, the temperature of the tropical Pacific is the dominant force, and smaller signals, like impacts from temperature changes in other ocean basins, get drowned out.
While the tropical Pacific largely dictates fall and winter precipitation levels, the strength of that signal falls off by spring through the summer. This phenomenon is called the spring–summer predictability barrier, and nobody knows what causes it. For that reason, summer climate predictions are very difficult to make.
The new technique takes a closer look at climate impacts from specific ocean basins, including the tropical Pacific, the North Pacific, the tropical Atlantic, the North Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean. Lau and his colleagues evaluated the individual influences of each ocean basin on the climate of U.S. regions during each season.
Since the tropical Pacific is the most dominant force in the winter, Lau’s results for the winter were similar to the traditional forecasts that use global sea surface temperatures. In the winter, the tropical Pacific had the strongest influence on the southern states, spanning the Southwest, Mexico, the Gulf Coast, the Southeast, and eastern seaboard. The northern Pacific had the strongest influence in the Ohio Valley and the Northwest, while the North Atlantic seemed to control the northeastern seaboard, northern California, Idaho, and Montana.
In the spring, the effects of the tropical Pacific wane, and the northern Atlantic begins to impact the Northeast and the east coast.
In the summer, the study finds a strong correlation between northern Pacific sea surface temperatures and the climate of the region that stretches from the Gulf coast of Texas to the northern Great Plains and the Midwest.
The study used 49 years of global climate data. Actual regional U.S. precipitation amounts were ordered into three categories—above normal, normal, and below normal. To test their forecasts, Lau and his colleagues made predictions for each of the 49 years after building up their computer model with data from the remaining 48 years of observations. When the forecast and the actual observations matched, the forecast was called a “hit.” For the entire 49 years, their forecasts had hits 45% or more in various regions of the United States.
For all regions, regardless of the time of year, there was a 10% to 20% increase in accuracy compared to traditional methods. The increases were most notable during the spring and summer, greatly reducing the spring predictability barrier.
Though the method has yet to be used on a real-time forecast, it raises the bar for seasonal precipitation prediction, Lau said.
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The National Weather Service (NWS) is using a new high-tech training tool, the Weather Event Simulator, to train forecasters to better forecast tornadoes, floods, and other extreme events.
The simulator, similar in concept to flight simulators used for pilot training, has been installed at NWS forecast offices around the country.
“Simulators are an effective training tool,” said retired Air Force General Jack Kelly, Director of the NWS. “Studies from the Departments of Defense and Transportation and the private sector have shown 25 hours of quality simulation training can achieve about two years of experience.”
NWS recognized the need for a weather simulator following a deadly tornado outbreak in Fort Worth, Texas, on 28 March 2000 and prioritized resources to develop one, Kelly explained. The agency’s Warning and Decision Training Branch worked with the Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training to finish creating the simulator.
The concept of the simulator was the brainchild of Mike Foster and David Andra, who, at the time, were meteorologists at the forecast office in Norman, Oklahoma. Foster was on duty during the Fort Worth tornado event. His long experience as a forecaster, he said, prompted him to issue a tornado warning, even though some of the classic tornado signs were not visible. That move, which was credited with saving lives, earned him this year’s AMS Award for Exceptional Specific Prediction.
“Airlines all use simulators to train their pilots to handle a variety of emergency situations and equipment malfunctions,” Andra said. “Meteorologists need similar preparation to forecast dangerous weather conditions with top-notch skill.”
All 121 weather forecast offices and 13 river forecast offices have the Weather Event Simulator hardware and software, officials said.
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The National Weather Service (NWS) has started testing new voices for NOAA Weather Radio at five weather forecast offices.
The new computer voice program has lifelike male and female voices that will be fine-tuned at each site to ensure words and geographical names are understandable to listeners in the regions of Mt. Holly, New Jersey (Philadelphia area); Melbourne, Florida; Des Moines, Iowa; Portland, Oregon; and Atlanta, Georgia.
NWS carried out an extensive evaluation of computer speech programs, as well as a survey of public and constituent comments to select male and female voices that will effectively provide public warnings of severe weather conditions.
The weather service hopes to deploy the system to all weather forecast offices by the end of March, officials said.
The weather service first used a computer synthesized voice technology in 1997. Automating NOAA Weather Radio transmissions enabled NWS to send out multiple independent warnings over multiple transmitters simultaneously, allowing speedier delivery of severe weather warnings and more lead time for the public.
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Phased-array radar technology, currently used to support tactical operations aboard U.S. Navy ships, will soon be adapted for weather detection. Development of this state-of-the-art radar technology may help forecasters provide earlier warnings for tornadoes and other hazardous weather.
In the next two years, a National Weather Radar Testbed will be established at NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma, providing the meteorological research community with the first phased-array radar facility available on a full-time basis. The project—from research and development to technology transfer and deployment throughout the United States—is expected to take 10 to 15 years with an initial cost of approximately $25 million for the Norman facility.
Participants with the NSSL include NOAA’s National Weather Service, Lockheed Martin, the U.S. Navy, University of Oklahoma’s School of Meteorology and College of Engineering, and the Federal Aviation Administration.
Phased-array radar uses electronically controlled beams. This reduces the scan time of severe weather from 5 to 6 minutes for current radar technology, to only 1 minute, producing fast updates of data, and thereby potentially increasing the average lead time for tornado warnings. It will also be able to rescan areas of severe weather very quickly, potentially increasing forecasters’ warning lead times as storms rapidly transition to more severe levels. In addition, the new system will be able to scan the atmosphere with more detail at lower elevations than current radar allows.
The new technology will gather storm information not currently available, such as rapid changes in wind fields, to provide more thorough understanding of storm evolution. Researchers and forecasters can then improve conceptual storm models and use that knowledge to evaluate and improve stormscale computer models. The data also will be used to initialize computer models and improve forecasts.
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In a new NASA-funded study, researchers have dramatically improved the warning time for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane basins using satellite data to access a combination of the spin of the atmosphere and wind speed data. With this new method, potential tropical cyclones can be detected more than 40 hours earlier than with traditional methods, giving more time for warnings and preparation.
Researchers from Florida State University’s Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies, using data from the SeaWinds scatterometer on NASA’s QuikSCAT satellite, have been able to detect the formation of the systems that might become tropical cyclones prior to their being classified as tropical depressions by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This new method is based on signals from the scatterometer-derived vorticity field, which highlights areas of rotating winds. The SeaWinds instrument on QuikSCAT is a specialized microwave radar that measures both the speed and direction of winds near the ocean surface.
One of the reasons earlier detection of potential tropical cyclones is possible with this new system is that the NHC uses criteria other than vorticity, such as persistent and organized thunderstorm activity, before they classify a system as a tropical cyclone. This system, however, uses only the wind field in which the signal is often present prior to the materialization of the NHC criteria. Early detection of these systems will help determine those that warrant further examination by more traditional methods, and allow investigators to study the genesis of tropical cyclones by watching the full development of a storm from its very beginning.
“Earlier detection of potential tropical cyclones would give the public and maritime interests more time to prepare for a potential future threat,” stated Ryan Sharp, coauthor of the study and a researcher at Florida State University’s Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies. “Advanced detection will also allow scientists more time to plan research missions into storms.”
The objective technique for the detection of tropical cyclones used by the researchers was established by using data collected during the 1999 Atlantic hurricane season. This technique was then applied to the near-real-time (< 3-hour delay) data for the 2001 Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane seasons in order to detect systems that had the potential to become tropical cyclones.
Of the 17 tropical cyclones that developed in 2001 in the Atlantic, 8 were detected an average of 43 hours before they were classified by the NHC. Some of the systems detected by this method (35% to 40%) never developed into tropical cyclones, but by using conventional methods of detection such as clouds in satellite pictures, researchers could eliminate most of these “false alarms” early in the study.
The results of the use of the scatterometer in the eastern Pacific, however, are more impressive and critical. With fewer weather stations and search aircraft, the use of the scatterometer can greatly improve tropical cyclone identification and prediction. Using the technique in this study, of the 17 tropical cyclones that formed in the eastern Pacific, 14 were identified an average of 42 hours before they were classified as tropical cyclones by the NHC. For a system developing close to land, this earlier prediction could mean the difference between life and death for those living in the region.
The SeaWinds instrument on QuikSCAT is a specialized microwave radar that measures both the speed and direction of winds near the ocean surface. Launched on 19 June 1999, from California’s Vandenberg Air Force Base, the spacecraft operates in a sun-synchronous, 803-kilometer (497 mile) near-polar orbit, circling Earth every 100 minutes, taking approximately 400 000 measurements over 90% of Earth’s surface each day.
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Conrad Lautenbacher, NOAA Administrator, has selected AMS Past President Jim Mahoney to serve as deputy administrator. It is the first time in many years that a scientist with experience in the atmospheric sciences will serve in a leadership role at NOAA. Mahoney’s confirmation hearing was in late January and confirmation by the Senate is expected anytime.
Mahoney’s career has involved over 40 years of continuous focus on the environmental and earth sciences, with a strong emphasis in the atmospheric, climate, hydrological, and oceanographic areas. He has benefitted from diverse work responsibilities in academic, corporate, government, and international settings.
Mahoney received a Ph.D. degree in meteorology from MIT, and then immediately joined the Faculty of Public Health at Harvard University, in its Department of Environmental Health Sciences. This early-career focus on public health and the environment set him on a course of responsible environmental management that has influenced all of his professional work.
Drawing upon Harvard experience, he cofounded an environmental management company, then known as Environmental Research and Technology, Inc. (ERT). ERT grew to become the nation’s largest environmental firm by the end of the 1970s, operating throughout the United States and several other nations. By 1975 ERT had became the largest employer of meteorologists and related technical specialists in the United States, except for the federal government itself.
He went into public service as Director of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP), working in the Executive Office of the President from 1988 through early 1991. NAPAP was a 10-year program created by the Energy Security Act of 1979, and charged with recommending sound approaches to controlling acid rain effects, while providing for continued energy and economic security for the nation.
He is an AMS Fellow and has been honored to serve on several committees of the National Academy of Sciences dealing with weather and climate, environmental protection, and science education, beginning in the early 1970s. In 1999 he completed a term as Co-Chairman of the academy’s Board on Atmospheric Science and Climate.
For photos of Dr. Mahoney’s confirmation hearing, please see http://www.doc.gov/opa/photo/Mahon.htm.
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Earl G. Droessler, past AMS President and internationally recognized meteorologist, died on 20 December in Cary, North Carolina, at the age of 81.
Droessler, also an AMS Fellow and former Scientific and Technological Activities Commissioner, began his career in meteorology in the Naval Weather Service during World War II. After leaving the navy, he joined the Office of Naval Research with the Department of Defense. He then worked for the Secretary of Defense as the executive secretary of the Committee on Geophysics and Geography. He was later invited to join the National Science Foundation where he established the national research program for the atmospheric sciences, which included the establishment of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in Boulder, Colorado.
In the mid-1960s, Droessler began teaching at the State University of New York at Albany and later, as vice provost and dean for research at North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, North Carolina. After more than 15 years in the academic community, Droessler took a leave of absence to join NOAA where he started NOAA’s office of university relations. He also worked briefly with North Carolina Governor Jim Hunt as the assistant secretary for natural resources, before returning to NCSU as professor emeritus of atmospheric sciences.
Droessler’s work earned numerous awards including the AMS Charles Brooks Award in 1976 and the Cleveland Abbe Award in 1992.
Droessler earned a bachelors degree in mathematics from Loras College. He completed his graduate work and research in meteorology at the Naval Post Graduate School in Annapolis, Maryland; the University of Oslo, Norway; and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Sydney, Australia. Throughout his distinguished career he published many articles in AMS and other journals.
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