American Meteorological Society Science Highlights - November 2008

Following are a few story ideas and tips about upcoming AMS meetings, papers in our peer-reviewed journals, and other happenings in the atmospheric and related sciences community. 

AMS Annual Meeting Starts January 11. The AMS’ 89th Annual Meeting gets underway, January 11, 2009 in Phoenix.  The program is finalized and online at http://www.ametsoc.org/MEET/annual/index.html

Check back often for updates.  Media registration is also online at http://www.ametsoc.org/MEET/annual/newsroom.html  Tip sheets and more specific advisories to follow.

An Ongoing Challenge - Communicating Uncertainty.  Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and meteorologists have information about weather forecast uncertainty that is not readily available to most forecast users. Yet effectively communicating forecast uncertainty to nonmeteorologists remains challenging. Improving forecast uncertainty communication requires research-based knowledge that can inform decisions on what uncertainty information to communicate, when, and how to do so. An article in the October issue of the AMS Weather and Forecasting explores the public’s perspectives on everyday weather forecast uncertainty and uncertainty information using results from a nationwide survey. The results show that when given a deterministic temperature forecast, most respondents expected the temperature to fall within a range around the predicted value. In other words, most people inferred uncertainty into the deterministic forecast. Click here for the abstract or contact Stephanie Kenitzer for a PDF of the article. 

Secrets of the “Greatest Snow on Earth.”  State license plates and tourism brochures boast that Utah ski areas receive the “greatest snow on Earth,” but is there really anything special about Utah's snow? Often it is argued in ski industry brochures that Utah's snow is the greatest because it is the “driest” (i.e., has a low density or water content), yet the mean water content of snow at Alta ski area, which is world renowned for powder skiing and provides the cornerstone for Utah's famous slogan, is not lower than observed, for example, at many Colorado and Wyoming ski resorts. We propose that Alta's reputation is not based solely on mean water content, but also abundant natural snowfall. Although it cannot be shown that Utah's snow is the “greatest on Earth,” the climatology at Alta and other nearby ski areas is consistent with a high frequency of deep-powder days.  Check out this paper in the September issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 

The Evolution of Rainfall during Landfalling Hurricanes.  When and where a hurricane makes landfall has a significant impact on the rainfall distribution associated with the storm.  As a hurricane makes landfall, it moves from shallow coastal waters to solid land, leading to a rapid decrease in surface latent heat fluxes, the hurricane’s primary energy source. In addition, surface roughness increases substantially. These rapidly changing conditions affect the pattern, extent, and intensity of damaging winds and rainfall.  A paper in the October issue of AMS Monthly Weather Review take a closer look at the impact of different land surface characteristics on hurricane rainfall distribution before, during, and after landfall is investigated.  The researcher found that before landfall, maximum rainfall occurs on the right side of the storm track as a result of dry air intrusion from both the environmental flow behind the vortex and the land surface ahead of the vortex. Upon landfall, the rainfall maximum shifts to the left of the storm track over land, near the coast. Increased friction over land drives a region of convergence in the entire front half of the storm.  For a copy of the paper contact Stephanie Kenitzer.

Cool Technology Story - Measuring CO2 and other Gases Using Airplanes.   A paper in the October issue of the AMS Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology reviews how researchers in Japan have been using new automated observation systems for on passenger aircraft to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and other trace species.  With cooperation and encouragement from Japan Airlines, the researchers have been actively making systematic measurements using an automated flask sampling system to obtain measurements of CO2 and other trace gases over the western Pacific between Japan and Australia between 1993 and 2005.  They have now significantly expanded the program to cover additional regions from Japan to Europe, Asia, Hawaii, and North America, using five JAL aircraft.  Over time they have made substantial improvements in the flask sampling system (ASE) and developed a new Continuous CO2 Measuring Equipment (CME) to obtain continuous in situ measurements of CO2. The CME and ASE instrument packages have been certified by the FAA to operate on the Boeing 747-400 series, while CME has been certified to operate on the Boeing 777-200 series.  For the paper with details on how these systems work contact Stephanie Kenitzer.   

Optimizing Crop Insurance Under Climate Variability.  How much crop insurance should farmers purchase to reduce their risk to climate variability?  A paper in the October issue of the AMS Journal Applied Meteorology and Climatology studies the selection of optimal crop insurance under climate variability and fluctuating market prices. The authors designed a model to minimize farmers’ expected losses (including insurance costs) while using the conditional-value-at-risk measure to acquire the risk-aversion level. The application of the model was illustrated by studying a farm with two crops (cotton and peanut) in Jackson County, Florida. The climate variability was caused by El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Crop-insurance contracts with minimized losses were 75% actual production history (APH) during El Niño and neutral years and 65% APH during La Niña years for peanut and 75% APH in all ENSO phases for cotton. In addition, risk-averse farmers could select 75% APH for peanut during La Niña years as a means of attaining less expected loss.  See http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2007JAMC1490.1 for the abstract or contact Stephanie Kenitzer for a copy of the paper. 

Environmental Science Seminar.  The next AMS Environmental Science Seminar, an ongoing series of seminars on Capitol Hill, is tentatively scheduled for Friday, November 21.  The topic is “A Closer Look at Engineering /Technological Measures to Stave Off a Worsening Climate: Injecting Particles into the Atmosphere and Clean Coal.”  See http://www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy/EnvironmentalScienceSeminarSeries.html for details.

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