Editor: Jim Elliot
Contributors: Alan Weinstein, Ginny Frost, and Julie Burba
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Jack Kelly, the retired Air Force brigadier general who now heads a review of the National Weather Service (NWS), is moving ahead to complete his review of NWS budget and operations by the 29 September deadline, according to NOAA officials. Kelly was selected to lead the review on 25 June when Commerce Secretary William Daley and NOAA Administrator James Baker announced they were removing Dr. Joe Friday as head of the NWS.
Dr. Robert Winokur, Director of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), was named acting NWS director, and Friday was named assistant administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) at NOAA.
Four individual consultants will assist Kelly with the review. The consultants include Dr. Craig Dorman, former navy rear admiral for antisubmarine warfare, former director of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and currently a senior scientist at the Applied Research Laboratory at Pennsylvania State University; retired Air Force brigadier general Albert J. Kaehn Jr.; Dr. John Dutton, dean, College of Earth and Mineral Science, Pennsylvania State University, and Mr. David McMillion, director of the Maryland Emergency Management Agency. Dr. Mary Good, former undersecretary of commerce for technology and former chair, National Science Board, named as an individual consultant in the 25 July press release, has not yet joined the group, according to NOAA officials.
To date, Kelly and the consultants have held several meetings, including one in Kansas City and one in the Dallas–Fort Worth area, NOAA officials said.
Kelly came on board in late July with a mandate to produce a report in 60 days. That report, NOAA officials said, is due 29 September.
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When Congress reconvenes in September—the Senate on 2 September and the House on 3 September—conferees will have less than a month to reconcile their budgetary differences before the start of FY98 on 1 October.
Although the appropriations process lagged slightly early in the session, because of negotiations over the balanced-budget agreement, the lawmakers moved quickly in July. With overall spending limits dictated by the balanced budget agreement, a bipartisan effort resulted in the Senate passing 10 appropriations bills. The House passed eight.
The VA/HUD/Independent Agencies bills (H.R. 2158/S.1034): Passed the House floor on 16 July, the Senate floor on 22 July. The total NSF budget recommended by the House committee was $3.48 billion, while the Senate recommended $3.37 billion. The House version would increase NSF's Research and Related Activities (R&RA) to $2.53 billion, $23 million over the administration's request, and provide advance funding of $115 million for a complete upgrade of the South Pole Station. The Senate, with a smaller allocation, would increase R&RA to $2.52 billion, $10 million over the request, and provide only the FY98 request ($25 million) for the South Pole Station.
The House bill would increase NASA funding by $148 million above the president's request of $13.5 billion; give Human Space Flight $5.327 billion, $100 million above the request; fund space science and Mission to Planet Earth at the requested levels; and allow the NASA administrator $150 million in transfer authority from other programs to the International Space Station, if needed. The Senate would provide the requested amount for NASA, the Space Station, space science, and Mission to Planet Earth, but made no mention of transfer authority for FY98 funds.
Commerce, Justice, and State bills (H.R. 2267/S.1022): Passed the Senate floor on 29 July; reported out of the House Appropriations Committee on 22 July but has not been voted on by the full House. (See July 1997 Newsletter, Part 2, for details.)
The total NIST's core laboratory programs would receive the requested amount of $276.9 million from the Senate and $6 million more than the request from the House. (See related story below.) The Advanced Technology Program would receive less than its request in both chambers, as would the Manufacturing Extension Partnerships. The Senate provision for NIST construction approximately equals the request; the House Appropriations Committee would increase the construction request by almost $100 million in anticipation of a plan addressing NIST's renovation needs.
National Security/Defense (H.R. 2266/S. 1055): Passed the Senate floor on 15 July; passed the House floor 29 July. The Senate bill would provide more than the administration's request of $1.163 billion for DOD basic research, while the House bill would provide $135.4 million less. Both chambers would increase funding for exploratory development. (See related story below.)
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House and Senate Appropriations Committees have approved research and science program spending for the Department of Energy in FY98.
For environmental, safety, and health programs, the Senate committee approved $87.3 million, while the House committee consented to $74.5. The request was for $109 million.
With science, the Senate committee provided $376.7 million for biological and environmental research, while the House committee approved $381.7 million. The request was for $376.7 million.
Biological and environmental research was funded $5 million over the request level in the House committee, which also provided $8.2 million for continuing research contribution of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change program.
In the Senate committee, the biological and environmental research program was funded at the requested level of $376.7 million, which includes $9.7 million for the National Institute for Global Environmental Change. Also, in the amount provided, $3.9 million is for the continuation of the nuclear medicine research program in biological imaging at the University of California, Los Angeles, and $0.3 million to establish a biological and environmental research genetic biodiversity laboratory at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas.
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The Senate and House Appropriations Committees completed action on FY98 funding for the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) before the August recess.
Funded within the appropriations bill for the Departments of Commerce, Justice, and State, NIST received $692.5 million from the House committee, as requested, and $603.9 million from the Senate committee. The full Senate passed the Commerce funding bill on 29 July with no changes to the NIST portion.
The differences will be resolved in conference following the August break.
A breakdown shows the following, in millions.
| Program | FY97 Approp. | FY98 Request | House Cmte. | Senate Cmte. |
| STRS | $265.1 | $276.9 | $282.9 | $276.9 |
| ATP | $225.0 | $275.6 | $185.1 | $200.0 |
| MEP | $95.0 | $123.4 | $113.5 | $111.0 |
| Const. | $0.0 | $16.7 | $111.1 | $16.0 |
| Total | $572.0 | $692.5 | $692.5 | $603.9 |
In the Scientific and Technical Research and Services (STRS) area, which comprises NIST's core laboratory programs, the Senate committee recommended the full amount requested by the president, while the House committee provided $282.9 million.
With the Advanced Technology Program (ATP), neither the House nor the Senate committee would provide the full requested amount. The Senate was closer to the request with approval of $200 million. The House Committee would provide $185.1 million. The House Committee provides the following distribution: $68 million for continuation of prior year awards made using funds provided in FY96 and FY97; $74.1 million for new awards in FY98, and $43 million for administration, internal lab support,and Small Business Innovations Research requirements.
The Senate report "applauds Commerce Secretary William M. Daley's effort to review some of the criticisms of the ATP Program and looks forward to receiving the results of his program review . . . The Committee directs NIST to use any carryover balances, cancellations or recoveries to fund existing awards in fiscal year 1998."
In the Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) program, both committee recommendations are lower than the request, with the House recommending $113.5 million and the Senate $111 million. Both would provide sufficient funding to enable all existing centers to remain in operation during FY98.
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from Bulletin of Science Policy News, the American Institute of Physics, Number 97, July 29, 1997
House appropriators, marking up the Department of Defense FY98 appropriations bill (H.R. 2266) on 22 July, made drastic reductions in the president's request for basic research funding. DOD officials have expressed concern at the continual decline in the department's technology base. According to a January 1997 National Academy report, DOD science and technology funding (excluding testing and evaluation) in FY97 is 11.1% below its FY94 level in constant dollars. The House bill was passed on 29 July, the Senate version on 15 July. The Senate bill would provide more than the request for DOD basic research, while the House bill would provide $135.4 million less.
Authorizers in both the House and the Senate provided, for DOD's R&D categories, funding levels equal to or greater than the request (although the authorization bill still needs to come to final agreement in conference). Senate appropriators also stayed close to the requested levels for the department's R&D categories. The House Appropriations Committee, however, while increasing funds for exploratory development, dramatically decreased funds from the requested amounts for basic research, maintaining them only at the FY97 level. This action, if it remains in the final conference report, would significantly affect university research sponsored by the Defense Department.
The House (and Senate) committees' recommended appropriation levels are as follows ( in millions).
| Service | Request | House Committee | Senate Committee |
| Army | |||
| Basic Research | $198.9 | $179.9 | $204.8 |
| Exploratory Dev. | $462.9 | $585.9 | $569.9 |
| Navy | |||
| Basic Research | $382.1 | $351.2 | $382.1 |
| Exploratory Dev. | $490.3 | $522.2 | $496.4 |
| Air Force | |||
| Basic Research | $226.8 | $183.3 | $222.3 |
| Exploratory Dev. | $593.4 | $618.5 | $589.6 |
| Defense Wide | |||
| Basic Research | $355.9 | $313.9 | $364.9 |
| Exploratory Dev. | $1267.5 | $1284.9 | $1320.0 |
| Total | |||
| Basic Research | $1163.7 | $1028.3 | $1174.1 |
| Exploratory Dev. | $2814.1 | $3011.5 | $2975.9 |
(Basic Research corresponds to the DOD 6.1 category; Exploratory Development appears to correspond to DOD's 6.2 category, applied research.)
The House Appropriations Committee report (H. Report 105-206) provides the following justification for its reduction to basic research:
"The Department of Defense requested over $1.1 billion for basic research in fiscal year 1998, an increase of over ten percent compared to the current fiscal year 1997 level. While the Committee supports the need for the Defense Department to conduct a robust basic university research program, in the context of the overall fiscal year 1998 defense budget such funding growth is unwarranted. In each of the services there are many programs that have long-standing yet unfulfilled warfighting requirements and which have successfully completed R&D, yet no production funds are requested in the budget ostensibly due to lack of funds.
"In addition, as in past years, this year's budget submission included large, unfunded shortfalls in defense medical programs, training and readiness accounts, and other programs such as munitions which have direct and immediate relevance to warfighting needs and the provision of an adequate quality of life for service members and their families. The Committee has provided additional funds in this bill to address these and other critical shortfalls. However, the Committee questions whether never-ending budget growth in basic research is wise, particularly in the context of the Administration's failure to adequately address the Defense Department's weapon system modernization needs. In light of the Department's proposed misallocation of resources, the Committee recommends reductions to basic research funding to maintain this program at the 1997 level."
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House Science Committee Chairman F. James Sensenbrenner Jr. (R-WI) has complained that he is "disappointed" that some federal agencies are failing to coordinate on science initiatives and excluding key provisions of the agencies' strategic plans.
He made his statement following a Science Committee hearing on the Government Performance and Results Act at which witnesses from the Departments of Commerce and Energy, NASA, NSF, and GAO appeared, adding that further hearings are planned.
"The Results Act should be viewed as an opportunity to improve the management and accountability of federal programs and as an opportunity for agencies to explain to the American public why they exist and how they are spending taxpayer dollars wisely," the chairman explained. "I am disappointed with the agencies' lack of progress in developing their strategic plans and specifically in the agencies failing to address the issue of crosscutting science functions."
The chairman also said he was unhappy with recent actions taken by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in reviewing the agencies' strategic plans and specifically with pronouncing one plan "good enough" when it neglected to address issues specifically called for in the Results Act law.
The Government Performance and Results Act was enacted in 1993 to improve government performance and management by requiring agencies to account for their spending to the American public and to link their annual budget requests to program goals. Agencies are required to submit five-year strategic plans to Congress by 30 September.
Draft strategic plans have been submitted and were the context of much of the discussion during the hearing.
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With the administration's decision to end nuclear testing, the Department of Energy (DOE), as guardian of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile, must rely on computer modeling and simulation to certify the weapons' safety and reliability.
At its weapons laboratories, DOE has the most powerful computer in the world and two even faster ones under construction. What is needed now, officials said, is to develop the skills and techniques for using this computing power to maintain the stockpile.
Noting that developing "an unprecedented level of simulation capability requires strategic alliances with leading research organizations," DOE has turned to the universities.
After a rigorous competition, five universities have been selected to participate in DOE's Academic Strategic Alliances Program (ASAP). Under this 10-year, $250 million program, the universities will be given access to approximately 10% of the time on the department's three most powerful computers.
Energy Secretary Federico Peña said this initiative would create "a revolution in how science is conducted in the United States."
"The program," he continued, "will change the way scientists solve complex problems."
The participating universities will focus on one or more national-scale, multidisciplinary applications in nonclassified areas in which computer modeling and simulation would advance not only the state of knowledge in that area but also prove useful to the stockpile stewardship effort, according to DOE officials.
The universities will be centers of excellence, officials said, which will accelerate advances in solving key science and engineering applications of national importance while validating high-confidence simulation as a crucial scientific methodology.
According to the American Institute of Physics Bulletin of Science Policy News of 6 August, the University of Chicago has proposed a center for astrophysics that will help "unlock the mysteries of many of the most significant problems in astrophysics," such as "how massive stars explode as supernovas," according to university vice president David Schramm.
Vice President and Provost Steve Koonin of the California Institute of Technology explained that CalTech will partner with other institutions to develop a computational facility for modeling the response of materials to intense shockwaves.
Michael Aiken, Chancellor of the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, described his university's proposal to study advanced solid propellant rockets, which will "contribute to a better understanding of ignition and shock physics."
Stanford University's center, said Dean John Hennessey, will focus on computational fluid dynamics and turbulence related to gas turbine engines.
The University of Utah center will simulate accidental fires and explosions, said President Jerilyn McIntyre, with the research benefiting not only the stockpile stewardship, but also the aerospace, chemical, and petroleum industries.
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Japan is on track to achieve a doubling of its government R&D investment between the years 1992 and 2000, according to an article in the 13 June issue of the NSF Issues Brief.
If that growth continues with funding increases such as those approved for 1996 and 1997, "annual government R&D investment would be around $18 billion in the year 2000, approximately double the 1992 budget in constant yen," according to the brief.
A large portion of the added funding would go toward renovating facilities and instruments, particularly at universities. Funds would be directed toward expanding doctoral programs at universities, increasing the amount of competitive grant money available, and attempting to create centers of excellence in specific research areas at Japanese universities. In recent years, Japan also has provided additional funds to intensify international research cooperation in basic sciences, such as the Human Genome Project and construction of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN in Europe. "Relative to the size of its economy, Japan's overall R&D investment (both public and private) is about the same as that of the United States," according to the paper. In 1994, Japan spent 2.6% of its GDP on research and development compared to 2.5% in the United States, according to the brief. However, most of the Japanese investment comes from private industry.
The Japanese government supports less than 20% of the total R&D compared with support of 35%–40% by the United States and Europe. If Japan achieves its doubling of federal research dollars by 2000, government support will equal approximately 29% of the R&D total, the paper reported.
A copy of the report, "Japan Hopes to Double Its Government Spending on R&D," NSF-97-310, can be obtained under "Issue Briefs" on the NSF Web site at http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/pubdata.htm, by sending an e-mail request to pubs@nsf.gov, or by calling (703) 306-1773.
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SeaWifs, the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor, was launched successfully onboard the Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC) SeaStar spacecraft on 1 August from Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA, from a modified Lockheed L-1011 aircraft on an OSC Pegasus expendable launch vehicle.
The SeaWifs instrument will study the carbon cycle by observing the world's oceans from space and measuring "ocean color." The color of most of the world's oceans varies with the concentration of phytoplankton, which contain chlorophyll, a green pigment. Near coastlines, the color of the ocean is affected by chlorophyll, dissolved organic material, and suspended sediments from rivers and lagoons. By observing the color of different parts of the oceans, scientists can measure the amount of these materials in ocean water.
SeaWifs is part of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) enterprise, a long-term, coordinated research effort to study the earth as a global system. Using the unique perspective available from space, NASA is observing, monitoring, and assessing large-scale environmental processes, such as the oceans' productivity, focusing on climate change.
In line with MTPE's commercial strategy, government-industry partnerships such as SeaStar provide NASA with needed data and may lead to practical commercial data use such as the development of fishing maps and estimation of crop yields for farmers and commodities markets.
"The data from SeaWifs will be of great benefit to our understanding of global carbon cycling," explained Mary Cleave, a former astronaut who is the SeaWifs project manager at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD. Understanding the role of the oceans in the global carbon cycle—the process by which carbon travels through the earth's atmosphere, oceans, land, and living organisms—is essential to understanding climate change, according to the scientists. Phytoplankton, microscopic marine plants, remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere for internal use. Scientists are eager to understand this exchange and the role it plays in global climate.
"A SeaWifs launch at this time will be particularly important given what appears to be a very intense El Niño event developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean," explained Dr. Charles McClain, SeaWifs project scientist at Goddard. "SeaWif's data will allow us to assess the global impact of the El Niño on marine ecosystems, including coastal waters off the U.S. west coast."
SeaWifs represents a new way of doing business for NASA. Rather than building, launching and controlling a satellite to study an important aspect of the earth's environment, NASA will purchase commercially available data from a privately built satellite and use the data for environmental research.
The SeaWifs team has developed, and will operate, a data system that will process, calibrate, validate, archive, and distribute SeaWif's data for research. All other aspects of the mission—satellite construction, launch, command, control, and tracking—are the responsibility of OSC.
NASA has contracted with OSC to provide, for five years, the raw satellite data that will be used for research purposes. OSC will own the data rights for operational and commercial purposes.
SeaWifs can view the world's oceans every two days. Because oceans cover 70% of the earth's surface, SeaWifs will provide information on a large part of the global biosphere.
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Six contracts with a potential value of $148.9 million have been awarded for sensor development of five critical instruments that will fly aboard future U.S. polar-orbiting environmental satellites, according to an Air Force and NOAA announcement.
The contracts represent a major step in the merger of the nation's military and civilian operational meteorological satellite systems into a single, national system capable of satisfying both civil and national security requirements for space-based, remotely sensed environmental data, officials explained. The merger of these programs was aimed at streamlining government and making it more efficient, as recommended by Vice President Al Gore. The converged system is expected to save taxpayers $550 million through 1999 and additional savings throughout the life of the system, according to NOAA officials.
The contracts were awarded by the Air Force Space and Missiles Systems Center in support of the tri-agency National Polar Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) for which NOAA is the lead agency. The three agencies involved in the convergence are NOAA, NASA, and DOD.
The contracts are for competitive sensor and algorithm developments for instruments that will fly aboard satellites in the NPOESS system. The system will combine the current dual systems of polar-orbiting satellites operated by NOAA and DOD. Under NPOESS, the total number of satellites and their associated ground systems are to be reduced significantly, according to officials.
The satellites will be able to collect information about the earth's atmosphere, including temperature, moisture, pressure, and ozone distribution; measure refraction from certain radiowave signals to characterize the ionosphere; and collect microwave radiometry and sounding data to produce microwave imagery and other meteorological and oceanographic data.
The contracts were awarded to the following companies.
NOAA officials said the convergence of these systems is the "most significant change in U.S. operational remote sensing since the launch of the first weather satellite in April 1960."
The first satellite in the NPOESS system is expected to be available some time toward the middle to latter half of the next decade, depending on when the current NOAA and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellite systems are exhausted, officials explained.
Under the presidential decision directive establishing the NPOESS program, the Air Force has lead agency responsibility for major systems acquisition, and NOAA has overall lead responsibility for the program and for operation of the system. The source selection team for the contracts was composed of DOD, NASA, and NOAA members.
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The ASTRO-SPAS experiment carrier performed well aboard the space shuttle mission STS-85, maintaining a daily science mission success rate of 100% and gathering valuable atmospheric data and information on the global distribution of trace gases.
STS-85 was launched from Kennedy Space Center on 7 August, and on 12 August the ASTRO-SPAS carrier passed the 1000-hour mark of cumulative time logged for all the missions it has flown. The ASTRO-SPAS carrier was deployed from the shuttle by the Remote Manipulator System, testing a small robotic arm identical to one that will be used on the International Space Station's Japanese experiment module. The carrier held the CRISTA and MAHRSI instruments. The 10-day mission was ended 18 August with a landing at Kennedy Space Center.
Among the activities accomplished were CRISTA's observations from the middle region of the atmosphere to the lower atmosphere, looking toward the Antarctic region during the southernmost part of its orbit, data never before collected; CRISTA's completion of very high spatial resolution modes above the area around Indonesia; CRISTA's moisture measurements in the atmosphere created by El Niño; MAHRSI's measurements of nitric oxide to make a complete 24-hour snapshot of the global distribution of this trace gas element, and MAHRSI's continuing measurements to confirm that the region between 60 and 85 km has a high abundance of water vapor.
At one point in the mission, concern arose over space debris passing too close to the CRISTA-SPAS. The debris was the PAM-D solid motor upper stage used to launch a Westar communications satellite from the space shuttle Challenger on STS-11 in 1984. At one point, the spent stage was projected to pass 855 m from the CRISTA-SPAS. However, it actually passed 2.5 km from the spacecraft, requiring no action on the part of the SPAS controllers.
STS-85 was the space shuttle Discovery's 23d flight in space, tying it with Columbia as the orbiter with the most missions. The mission also marked the 86th shuttle flight in the program's history.
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Long-range forecasts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon by NOAA and others—significantly improved in recent years—could result in economic benefits of between $240 and $324 million a year to U.S. consumers and producers in the agriculture sector, according to a study to be published in an upcoming issue of Climatic Change, a prominent climate journal.
A related cost-benefit analysis by academic experts of investments in research and observing systems to achieve and maintain improved ENSO forecast capabilities indicates real economic returns of 13%–26% to the United States, according to the article.
The improved forecasts have a potentially large economic value because they enable better decisions to be made in climate sensitive sectors of the economy, the study shows.
"These studies clearly demonstrate the economic benefits of improved long-range forecasting," said NOAA Administrator D. James Baker. "It is yet another example of how investment in ocean and atmospheric research and observing systems is a sound use of public resources to produce a beneficial return for the economy."
The studies were supported by NOAA, which is involved in the observation, monitoring and prediction of the ENSO phenomenon.
ENSO is the most prominent known source of interannual variability in weather and climate around the world, according to meteorologists. The Southern Oscillation is a global-scale "seesaw" in atmospheric pressure between Indonesia–North Australia and the southeast Pacific Ocean. In broad terms, ENSO represents a varying shift in climate conditions between a normal phase and two extreme phases: El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cold).
The latest ENSO advisory from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center on 15 July shows that El Niño continues to strengthen in the tropical Pacific. Climate models indicate that the warm-episode conditions will continue throughout the remainder of the year.
For the agricultural studies, researchers analyzed differences in climate conditions during ENSO events and the consequences of those conditions for crop yields in the United States. In some cases, depending upon the phases of ENSO, average monthly temperature and precipitation can change simulated yields of important crops such as corn, wheat, and soybeans by as much as 15%–30%, according to the study. Therefore, accurate long-term forecasts will allow farmers to make optimal planting and harvesting decisions, benefiting American consumers and exporters by lower prices, the report indicated.
"Advanced knowledge of the ENSO phase provides advanced knowledge of climate conditions, which in turn allows farmers to make decisions to maximize agricultural yields," said Rodney Weiher, NOAA's chief economist.
A separate cost-benefit study compared the costs of a successful 10-year international effort to model and understand ENSO with the benefits of climate forecasts only in the U.S. agriculture sector. This study also took into account future costs of maintaining and improving the ENSO observing system. Using sensitivity analysis, real economic returns on investments by the United States is at least 13%–26%, the study revealed. This is substantially above the 7% government minimum required rate of return on public investments, according to Peter Sassone, professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology and author of the study.
"As climatologists capitalize on further investments in operational observing systems and improve the science of seasonal and interannual forecasts, the United States and the global community will reap a tremendous economic benefit worth millions, even billions of dollars," Dr. Baker suggested.
The studies were undertaken by academic experts in economics, climatology and plant science from Texas A&M University, The Florida State University, the University of Arkansas, Oregon State University, the Georgia Institute of Technology, and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
Additional NOAA-supported studies are under way to estimate the benefits and application of improved forecasts in the electric power industry, with emphasis on hydropower production, natural gas storage and transmission, the commodities markets, and the use of improved global forecast in climate-sensitive economies like Latin America and China.
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History was made on Friday, 27 June, when the first 24-hour forecast over North America (continental United States and Canada) at 10-km resolution was produced in real time.
Using the adiabatic kernel of the nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Compressible Community (MC2) model combined with the full RPN physical parameterisation package on a 753 x 510 x 31 grid. The forecast required 40 minutes of CPU time on an NEC SX-4/32 supercomputer at the Canadian Meteorological Centre in Montreal.
The Mesoscale Compressible Community (MC2) model is a production quality weather forecast model widely used in Canadian universities and at Environment Canada for mesoscale and microscale atmospheric research. The model is an extension of a fully compressible limited area model developed in the mid-1980s at Recherche en prévision numerique (RPN) and l'Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM). Small-scale prediction capabilities have been tested.
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Complex river characteristics and limitations in current National Weather Service (NWS) flood forecast methods were the primary cause of changes in forecasts of the flood crest at Grand Forks, ND, and East Grand Forks, MN, during the disastrous April floods in those areas.
That's the finding of a team of experts led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that reviewed NWS forecasts and services during those Red River floods earlier this year.
"The same forecast techniques that produced very good predictions of flood stages on other portions of the Red River were not as effective for the Grand Forks/East Grand Forks area of the river," explained Edward Johnson, coleader of the NOAA survey and chief of the Hydrologic Operations Division, Office of Hydrology, NWS. "Our models did not fully account for the submerged bridges and the very flat terrain downstream that backed up water in the town."
The survey team also suggests that the NWS needs to improve the methods used to estimate and convey the uncertain nature of its flood forecasts and outlooks to officials and to the public.
"Our discussions with NWS customers in the Red River Valley indicated that there needs to be greater understanding of the meaning of long-range flood outlooks and short-range flood forecasts," Johnson continued. "We have to ensure that people clearly understand that river levels could be higher or lower than called for in the outlook and that our confidence grows as we issue forecasts and get closer to the event."
In briefings for members of Congress and for local and state officials of Minnesota and North Dakota, the survey team noted that "the most promising method" for improving hydrologic forecasting is the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System demonstrated on the Des Moines River basin this past spring. The system combines long-range weather and climate forecasts with hydrologic models to produce long-range flood probabilities and probability-based flood inundation maps.
Flooding on the northern Red River established twentieth-century records for most locations along the river and was particularly devastating in the towns of Grand Forks and East Grand Forks. With the exception of Grand Forks, which exceeded the previous record, set in 1979, by more than five feet, observed crests at most other forecast locations on the Red River were approximately two feet above the previous record.
The interagency disaster survey team is examining all components of the NWS's performance related to the floods, from preparedness and coordination through service delivery to public response. Team members conducted dozens of interviews with customers and cooperating agencies and reviewed volumes of NWS forecast products and Red River data.
The team of experts is composed of representatives from the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and it includes hydrologists, meteorologists, an engineer, a social scientist from the academic community, and a public information specialist.
A complete report of the disaster survey will be published after further study and interagency coordination, according to NOAA officials.
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On the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, Arkwright Mutual Insurance Company, based in Waltham, MA, announced that it will equip at least 10 000 customer facilities in the United States with special radios to give those companies advance warning of tornadoes, flash flooding, and other extreme weather events, and help them prevent billions of dollars in potential losses.
Hurricane Andrew was the costliest natural disaster in U.S. insurance history, causing an estimated $25 billion in damage. The 10 costliest disasters in this country's insurance history have occurred within the last decade, largely due to changing weather patterns and development in areas exposed to weather extremes. Some independent experts predict more devastating storms in years to come and consider a $10 billion-plus disaster likely in the next five years.
"We believe it is better to prevent property damage than to simply insure losses," said William J. Poutsiaka, president and chief executive officer of Arkwright Mutual Insurance.
"Most storm damage to property can be avoided with proper construction, advance planning, and early warning," Poutsiaka noted. "By taking the right steps at the right times, we can prevent major losses and maintain continuity of operations, employment, and availability of products and services. We believe these radios will be a helpful tool, so we've declared war on Mother Nature and are buying and installing these units at no charge to our customers."
Arkwright, a leading expert in engineering-based loss control and risk management, plans to spend at least $1.2 million to expand the National Weather Service network into its customers' facilities over the next year. The network, which is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is the nation's most advanced warning system for weather-related hazards and other emergencies.
Known as the "voice of the National Weather Service," the NOAA Weather Radio network broadcasts up-to-the-minute local reports 24 hours a day. The federal agency believes network receivers should be standard equipment in every home and in gathering places entrusted with public safety, including schools, hospitals, office buildings, theaters, transportation buildings, and sports stadiums.
The National Weather Service described Arkwright's investment in the receivers as an added dimension to that goal, and as an excellent example of the potential of partnerships between business and government.
"This is a first. It is the largest private investment in NOAA Weather Radio receivers and can help prevent billions of dollars in property damage," said Lou Boezi, deputy assistant administrator for modernization of the National Weather Service. "It also demonstrates the great benefits that are possible when business and government work toward a common goal."
Arkwright is investing in a version of the radio receiver that uses brand new technology called "specific area message encoding." The receivers can be programmed to activate a warning alarm only when hazards threaten a particular geographic area, eliminating so-called nuisance alarms.
For years broadcasting facilities have used commercial versions of these receivers costing more than $1000 each. Now for the first time the unit is available to consumers from RadioShack for a retail price of $79.95. Arkwright will install these units at customer facilities beginning this autumn.
Arkwright's investment in NOAA Weather Radio receivers complements its own electronic warning system for customers, known as "Nat Cat." An Arkwright team monitors weather patters, uses software mapping to identify customers in the path of a storm and faxes and/or e-mails an alert directly to plant managers with tips for fast-action protective measures tailored to the characteristics of their facilities.
Arkwright Mutual Insurance Company is an engineering-based insurance and risk management firm servicing a variety of commercial and industrial properties and educational institutions worldwide. Arkwright invests a significant portion of its research budget, through Factory Mutual Engineering Association, which it owns, in developing and certifying methods and materials that can withstand extreme weather and natural disasters.
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The Carbon Dioxide Informational Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which operates the Quality Systems Science Center(QSSC) for the North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) has developed a QSSC Web site at http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/programs/NARSTO/narsto.html.
The purpose of NARSTO, a U.S.–Canada–Mexico initiative of government agencies, industry, and the academic research community, is to improve understanding of the formation and transport of tropospheric ozone, a serious air pollutant.
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Stephen B. Brandt, a scientist, educator, and science administrator, is the new director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor, MI.
The laboratory, with a staff of 60 scientists and support staff and a $5.2 million annual budget, conducts research into the sources, pathways, fates, and effects of toxicants in the Great Lakes; natural hazards such as severe waves, storm surges, and ice; Great Lakes hydrology and water levels; the regional effects of global change; and ecosystems and their interactions, including research into the causes, effects, and techniques for ameliorating the impact of invasive aquatic species such as the zebra mussel.
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The U.K. Meteorological Office has named Peter David Ewins the new chief executive. Ewins replaced Julian Hunt, who left the office on 30 June. Ewins comes to the position from the Ministry of Defense, where he was the chief scientist since 1994. Educated at Imperial College, London, Ewins studied aeronautical engineering and graduated in 1964. He earned an M.S. in design from the Cranfield Institute of Technology in 1966.
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