Editor: Jim Elliot
Contributors: Alan Weinstein, Ginny Frost, and Julie Burba
LEGISLATIVE NEWS
WEATHER NEWS
ENVIRONMENT AND GLOBAL CHANGE
SATELLITES AND SPACE
PEOPLE IN THE NEWS
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The House Appropriations Committee passed a $1.791 billion FY97 budget for NOAA on 11 July . The measure now goes to the full House, which is expected to consider the bill on 17 July.
The nearly $1.8 billion bill represents a decrease of $303.976 million from President Clinton's request of $2.095 million and is $124.374 million less than the FY96 appropriation of $1.916 billion.
Within that overall allowance, a line office breakdown of the allocations shows Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), $231.826 million; National Weather Service (NWS), $633.01 million; National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS), $431.582 million; National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), $292.907 million; and National Ocean Service (NOS), $180.975 million.
The committee allowed $67 million for interannual and seasonal climate research under climate and air quality research, a decrease of $9.712 million from the president's request and a $1.5 million increase over the FY96 appropriation. This increase is for studies of the health of the atmosphere and Regional Applications Center activities of the IRI. The committee declined funds for the GLOBE program, for which the president had requested $7 million, as well as for the VENTS program, also requested by the president. For long-term climate and air quality research, the committee provided $27.272 million, a decrease of $21.909 million from the request and $1 million below the FY96 allowance.
Under the Atmospheric Program, which includes weather research and solar/geomagnetic research, the committee provided $43.182 million, or $584,000 less than the request and $264,000 less than the FY96 appropriation. Also provided funding under the OAR umbrella were the Ocean and Great Lakes programs, for which the committee provided funding of $19.907 million, $2.907 million more than the $17.308 million requested by the administration and $4.481 million less than the FY96 appropriation; the Sea Grant Program, which the committee funded at $53.3 million, an amount $4.607 million more than requested, but the same as the FY96 allowance, and the Undersea Research Program, for which the committee went along with the president's desire for no funds. The program had received $12 million in FY96. The total Ocean and Great Lakes funding provided by the committee was $73.207 million, $7.106 million more than requested, but $7.519 million less than the FY96 appropriation.
The $633.01 million NWS allowance made by the committee is $37.656 million less than the $670.666 million requested by the president, but $26.965 million more than the FY96 allowance of $606.045 million.
Under operations and research, the Committee provided NWS with $387.02 million for local warnings and forecasts, $12 million less than the $399.02 million requested by the president and $18.28 million under the FY96 allowance of $405.3 million. It provided no funds for radiosonde replacement; $1 million for the Susquehanna River Basin Flood System, which is more than $331,000 more than the president requested; $35.596 million for aviation forecasts as requested by the president and the same amount allowed in FY96; and $2 million for regional climate centers. The $2 million was not requested by the president, but represents the same amount as provided in FY96.
The overall NWS operations and research allowance for FY96 is $455.909 million, which is $15.863 million less than the $471.672 million requested by the president and $27.949 million less than the $473.758 million provided in FY96.
Under System Acquisitions, the committee provided $53.145 million for NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) as requested by the president. Funding for ASOS (Automated Surface Observing System) was set at $10.056 million by the committee, the same amount requested, but $6.896 million less than the $16.992 million allowance for FY96. The committee provided $100 million for AWIPS/NOAA Port (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System) for FY97, which is $19.8 million less than requested, but $50 million more than the $50 million provided in FY96.
The NESDIS allowance of $431.582 million is $100.249 million less than the $531.831 million requested and $29.954 million less than the FY96 allowance. Included in that allowance is $147.300 million for polar spacecraft and launching, $19 million for the polar convergence program, $171.48 million for geostationary spacecraft and launching, and $49 million for environmental observing systems.
With the polar spacecraft and launching, the president had requested $147.644 million, or $344 million more than the committee provided. The FY96 allowance was $174.765 million, or $27.465 million more than the FY97 allowance.
With the convergence program, designed to combine the environmental satellite systems of NOAA, NASA, and the Department of Defense, the FY97 allowance of $19 million is $59.2 million below the president's request of $78.2 million and $20.5 million below the FY96 allowance of $39.5 million.
The committee's geostationary satellite and launching allowance ($171.480 million) is $37.442 million below the president's request of $205.922 million, but $18.374 million more than the FY96 appropriation of $153.106 million.
The NMFS FY97 allowance of $292.907 million is $12.733 million less than the president's request of $305.640 million, but $12.515 million more than the FY96 allowance of $280.392 million.
With NOS, the committee's FY97 allowance of $180.975 million is $8.531 million less than the president's request of $189.506 million, but $6.574 million more than the FY96 budget.
The appropriations bill will next be sent to the full House for consideration and amendment, while the Senate will consider its own version of the funding bill. Then the two funding bills must be reconciled and sent to the president. In future issues we will report further details on the final funding bills as they are passed.
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Senators and representatives in Washington have returned from the 4 July recess, and the pace for action on 13 appropriations bills has picked up considerably. The bills need to be approved by both chambers and signed into law by the beginning of the 1997 fiscal year on 1 October. If no agreement is reached, Congress will once again fall back on using continuing resolutions—as it did repeatedly in the past year—to keep government programs running until their funding bills are finalized.
In the House, appropriators took action on funding bills affecting the Department of Energy and the Department of Commerce, and in the Senate, the VA/HUD Appropriations Subcommittee and the full Senate Appropriations Committee.
Both NSF and NASA fared better in the Senate than in the House, in part because the House approved a 0.4% across-the-board reduction in all programs except veterans'. In other House floor action, Science Committee Chairman Robert Walker (R-PA) offered an amendment to shift $9.1 million from NSF Salaries and Expenses to Research and Related Activities. The amendment passed 245 to 170.
For NSF, the Senate subcommittee would fund $3.270 billion for FY97, compared to a House mark of $3.24 billion and a presidential request of $3.32 billion.
Within the overall NSF budget, the Senate subcommittee provided $2.43 billion for Research and Related Activities (R&RA), compared to the House allowance of $2.42 billion and a request by the president for $2.47 billion. Under the subcommittee's allowance, Education and Human Resources (EHR) would receive $619 million, equal to the president's request and higher than the House's allowance of $610 million. The subcommittee also would provide $80 million for Major Research Equipment (MRE), as would the House. The president's request was $95 million. Salaries and Expenses would receive $134 million, equal to the request and $9 million greater than the House's mark of $125 million. As the House did, the Senate subcommittee accepted the administration's plan to zero out the Academic Research Infrastructure (ARI) account and, instead, provide $50 million for instrumentation within the R&RA account.
In later action by the full senate Appropriations Committee, an additional $5 million was added to NSF's EHR account for the Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR), raising the NSF total to $3.275 billion.
A breakdown of the House–Senate action (to date) on the overall NSF budget, compared to the president's request (in millions):
| President's
Request $3,325 | House $3,240 |
Senate Subcommittee $3,270 |
House action on the NSF budget shows:
| Account | FY96 Request | FY97 Request | FY97 House Appropriations Committee | FY97 House |
| NSF Total R&RA EHR ARI* MRE S&E | $3,220 $2,314 $599 $100 $70 $132 | $3,325 $2,472 $619 $0 $95 $134 | $3,253 $2,422 $612 $0 $80 $134 | $3,240 $2,421 $610 $0 $80 $125 |
* $50 million of R&RA is intended for instrumentation.
With NASA, the Senate VA/HUD Appropriations Subcommittee provided $13.7 billion for the space agency, compared to $13.55 billion in the version passed by the House, and $13.8 billion as requested by the president. The Science, Aeronautics, and Technology (SA&T) account, which includes space and earth science, would receive $5.8 billion, compared to he House-passed amount of $5.6 billion and a request of $5.9 billion. Within the SA&T account, the Senate subcommittee would provide more for NASA's Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) than the House did, giving it $1.3 billion compared to the House's $1.2 billion. Both amounts are below the president's request of $1.4 billion.
A comparison of House–Senate action (to date) on NASA funding shows (in billions):
| Account | President's Request | House | Senate Subcommittee |
| Total SA&T MTPE | $13.8 $5.9 $1.4 |
$13.55 $5.6 $1.2 | $13.7 $5.8 $1.3 |
The House and Senate bills must be reconciled. As we learn more, we will report the final results of the 1997 funding bills in future issues. President Clinton has threatened to veto any VA/HUD bill that does not fund AmeriCorps, as the House Appropriations bill declines to do.
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Oklahoma experienced its driest October–May period since record keeping began in 1895, according to a recently released Special Climate Summary by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, MD.
The long-term drought is adversely affecting agriculture and creating prime wildfire conditions in the southern Plains and the Southwest, the report noted.
The Special Climate Summary suggests that at least two short-term climate factors appear to be interacting, thereby contributing to the severity and longevity of this drought.
"One important climate factor that is contributing to the drought is the transition from an El Niño warm episode to a La Niña cold episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the past year," said Gerald Bell, Climate Prediction Center meteorologist and coauthor of the summary. "Cold episodes often go hand-in-hand with a high pressure system over the Southwest, which diverts the jet stream and storm track northward, away from the drought-stricken region. The result is below normal rainfall across the Southwest."
The second climate factor is a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, a naturally occurring fluctuation of the atmosphere over the North Atlantic Ocean that influences temperature, precipitation, jet stream, and storm track patterns from eastern North America to Europe. Over the past months, the oscillation has been "stuck" in a negative phase that features unusually high pressure at high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean and unusually low pressure over the central latitudes of the ocean.
The combination of the La Niña conditions and the negative phase of the oscillation during the past 9 months is shaping the circulation patterns not only in the drought-ridden areas but also across much of the Northern Hemisphere. Examples are a cold and stormy winter in the east, spring flooding in the Ohio Valley, and long-term cool and wet conditions reaching from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the mid-Atlantic states.
As of mid-June, the worst drought conditions were in New Mexico, Texas, and southern and western Oklahoma, where less than 50% of normal precipitation has fallen since October 1995, according to Richard Tinker, a meteorologist at the center and lead author of the special summary. The October–May period has been the driest since 1895 for Texas and the fifth driest for New Mexico.
The center's 90-day forecast for July through September shows an equal chance for above-normal, normal, and below-normal rainfall in the Southwest. However, the forecast shows that above-normal temperatures are most likely to occur in the region during the 3-month period. Meteorologists at the center use satellite data, atmospheric computer models, and historical analyses to prepare the long-range forecasts.
"The most realistic chance for a significant break from the drought is during the late summer or early autumn monsoon which normally begins in July and ends in September or October," Tinker said.
The Special Climate Summary reviews the impacts and characteristics of the drought, as well as outlooks and forecasts, and is available on the Climate Prediction Center World Wide Web page, http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov
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This summer promises to be a dangerous one in the tinder-dry forests of the southwest United States and Alaska. Winds play a critical role in fire spread, but a fire itself can modify local winds, helping it grow even more quickly. Now a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, CO, has created one of the world's first computer models that traces the interplay over time between fire behavior and winds, pointing the way toward future models that might aid in fire prediction and management. First results from this model were published in the May 1996 issue of the Journal of Applied Meteorology.
"A Coupled Atmosphere–Fire Model: Convective Feedback on Fire-Line Dynamics" was written by NCAR scientists Terry Clark and Janice Coen, with Mary Ann Jenkins (York University, Canada) and David Packham (Monash University, Australia).
Clark specializes in using supercomputers to model small-scale atmospheric phenomena. His work has analyzed severe thunderstorms, downslope windstorms, and the dynamics near fronts. For the fire–atmosphere study, one of Clark's atmospheric models was coupled, or connected, with a model of dry eucalyptus forest fires (a major threat in Australia). Although forests vary in how they burn, the authors expect that their main findings will translate to a variety of settings.
Most previous studies on fire and wind have assumed a straightforward relationship between large-scale winds and fire behavior. However, the authors note, "Forest fires are very complex phenomena. . . . Interactions between forest fires and airflow are highly nonlinear [unstable], and radiation and combustion properties are not fully understood." Using the coupled model, the scientists were able to examine a variety of wind speeds and observe—at resolutions as fine as 20 meters—how a fire's development can alter the circulation around it. Their findings included the following.
The calculations for the coupled model were performed on NCAR's CRAY Y-MP supercomputer with support from the National Science Foundation. Clark and his colleagues plan to continue their fire–atmosphere modeling. They are now investigating a second, smaller-scale type of fire fingering that occurs through a process roughly similar to the one that causes supercell thunderstorms to rotate. Preliminary model results show the development of a tornado-like vortex within a fire, much like the vortices sometimes observed in actual fires.
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Beginning this June, scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, CO, are engaged in new research that will bring more credibility to the science of weather modification and possibly some rain to the drought-ridden Mexican state of Coahuila. Working with scientists from several Mexican universities, the NCAR researchers are beginning the first field trials in North America of new techniques for seeding clouds to enhance rainfall. The Mexican government, along with agricultural and industrial interests, is sponsoring the research, with field trials planned for June to October over the next 4 years in Coahuila. The program will also transfer cloud-seeding technology to Mexico and train Mexican scientists in its use and evaluation.
The technique tested in Mexico this summer uses pyrotechnic flares mounted on aircraft to seed the clouds. While the aircraft flies at the base of the cloud, moisture-retaining particles produced by the burning flares rise into the cloud. As the cloud's water vapor is attracted to the particles, droplets are formed, which then fall out as rain. The wide range of droplet sizes produced by the particles encourages and accelerates the precipitation process.
This method of cloud seeding was first tried in 1990 in South Africa. There it appeared to increase rainfall by 30% to 60% over what would have occurred without the seeding. These results were confirmed in Arizona last year in a secondary program led by NCAR's Roelof Bruintjes.
The NCAR researchers are collaborating with scientists from the Universidad Autonoma de Coahuila, the Department of Meteorology at the Universidad Autonoma Antonio Narro in Saltillo, Centro Ciencias de la Atmosfera at the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, and the Instituto Mexicano de Tecnologia del Agua. Altos Hornos de Mexico, a large steel plant in the region, is leading the private-sector interests. Weather Modification, Incorporated, in North Dakota is providing logistical support, including the research aircraft, pilots, a ground-based weather radar, and computer displays.
Cloud seeding has been practiced in various places in the world since 1946, but most experiments have produced inconclusive results. The initial optimism that soared in the 1950s and 1960s has given way to a much more cautious approach over the last 20 years. Although there have been many rainfall-enhancement programs around the world during the last two decades, most have lacked a solid scientific basis and have had no means to validate the results of the seeding. Because of the natural day-to-day variability of clouds across geographical regions, it has been difficult for scientists to isolate the effects of seeding.
Brant Foote, director of NCAR's Research Applications Program, is coordinating the overall research program that will test and validate the new hygroscopic seeding method. He cautions that it is too early to tell whether the seeding technique will be broadly applicable to Mexico or any other rain-deficient area.
"The results in South Africa and Arizona are striking," says Foote, "but there is no guarantee of success elsewhere. These efforts are clearly still in the research phase. We anticipate that the disciplined research program in Mexico will help us better understand the physical processes that could lead to increased rainfall and clarify whether this technique works as well as we think."
The research program will include the following scientific components:
Training and technology transfer are important goals of the project. During the first month, NCAR and Coahuila personnel are jointly developing a training plan to effectively transfer cloud-seeding technology to Mexico. Mexican university and state personnel will be integrated into all aspects of the program, including cloud physics studies, radar data analyses, and numerical modeling. NCAR will also train State of Coahuila personnel in the use and evaluation of cloud-seeding methods using hygroscopic flares and other materials. Key aspects of the training and technology transfer are
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A NASA-developed system that can provide pilots with up-to-date and easily accessible weather information is taking to the air.
NASA, United Airlines, and McDonnell Douglas are evaluating a DC-10 equipped with an experimental cockpit weather system and other innovative technologies. The DC-10 is scheduled to fly a "show and tell" flight in the San Francisco area in mid-July and will then fly normal passenger-carrying service around the nation through September.
Weather plays a significant role in the efficiency of transportation aircraft. Timely routing around hazardous weather increases the margin of safety between airplanes and potentially dangerous conditions, leading to significant operational cost savings, increased safety, and improved passenger and crew comfort. To efficiently route aircraft around such conditions, pilots need the up-to-the-minute status of the weather along an aircraft's intended flight path.
Developed by Dr. Charles H. Scanlon at NASA's Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, the Cockpit Weather Information (CWIN) system can provide flight crews with up-to-date graphical weather data in a more timely and easy to understand manner than current methods. Flight crews now receive in-flight weather updates in the form of voice or printed data, leaving them to assimilate information into a mental picture of the conditions near their intended path. This is time consuming and may not present a clear or accurate picture. Also, current radar readings can be limited by distance and blockages.
"CWIN is like having an interactive mobile weather channel," said Scanlon. The system receives information, including surface observations, terminal forecasts, radar summaries, and lightning strike data, from a satellite data link. The system can also provide weather trend information and has zooming capabilities that enable the user to see information from the entire nation or to focus on specific areas.
The CWIN system can construct color graphic, moving, and textual displays, as well as other tools to aid in weather-related decisions. The aircraft's intended path also can be plotted and seen in relationship to the weather. All of this is displayed on a 10.4-inch multicolor liquid crystal display with a touch panel overlay that allows the desired information to be easily selected. Data are continually received and stored by the system, allowing for instantaneous access to the latest information.
The up-to-date information provided by this system will allow pilots to plan en route weather avoidance more effectively. The system can enable pilots to fly shorter routes, use less fuel, and clear storms by greater distances, thus improving safety and comfort. In CWIN simulation studies conducted in 1993, a 5% decrease was shown for both distance flown and amount of fuel burned. Clearance of storms was increased as pilots were able to triple the distance between their planes and danger.
CWIN is one of a number of applications that will be shown on the experimental Electric Resource System (ERS), a smart information terminal in the cockpit. "United is excited to host CWIN on our ERS evaluation," said Dave Witchey, CWIN program manager for United Airlines. "CWIN is an elegant example of information that enables pilots to collaborate on making earlier, safer, more efficient decisions."
Both CWIN and ERS are steps towards the free flight concept envisioned for the future. Today airplanes follow designated, and sometimes congested, flight paths. With free flight, pilots would be free to choose their own routes, with restrictions only as needed. "CWIN gives you a better tool to pick your route and optimize your flight," Scanlon said.
McDonnell Douglas is the primary contractor for the project, under a contract that runs from May 1995 through December 1996. McDonnell Douglas has been responsible for the implementation of the system's hardware and software and is facilitating the evaluation. United Airlines and Computing Devices International are subcontractors on the project. Astronautics Corporation of America and several other companies have contributed to the program, donating equipment, facilities, time, and money.
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An around-the-clock weather service for cable TV subscribers has been launched in the United Kingdom.
Primark Corporation, a U.S. firm, announced that its subsidiary, Weather Services International (WSI), has entered into a joint venture with Pelmorex, Incorporated, of Toronto, Ontario, which went on the air 2 June.
The "Weather Network" features international, national, and regional weather conditions, using an all-digital production plant to supply fast, sophisticated, and entertaining weather information to viewers across the British Isles, the company reported.
The "Weather Network" will be produced with U.K. viewing tastes in mind, full of local content and features, according to the company. Drawing from a variety of sources, including ground reporting stations and satellite imagery, the "Weather Channel" will show weather outlooks both at home and around the world. Cut-ins every 5 minutes will allow cable carriers to insert local conditions and forecasts down to a 25-mile area. Programming also will include reports on real-time traffic conditions on all motorways in Britain, as well as on ferry crossings and airports critical to leisure and business travelers.
The Primark Corporation has its headquarters in Waltham, MA, and is a $600 million global firm that provides information technology solutions and targets the data-intensive financial, government, and weather markets.
Pelmorex owns and operates two 24-hour weather network services in Canada under the names The Weather Network and MeteoMedia. Pelmorex is also a cofounder of La Chaine Meteo, an all-weather television service launched in France a year ago. Based in Toronto, Ontario, this Canadian Company is expanding rapidly on an international basis.
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The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, has initiated an 11-month test program, known as the Hazardous Weather Update, which provides extended forecasts (for the next 6 to 9 hours) of severe weather that has regional or national significance. The product will be issued only when dangerous weather such as severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, dangerous wind chill, or heat index temperatures affects a major portion of the country and crosses state boundaries. These updates are expected to contain a general forecast of the movement of storms and areas of possible impact, along with standard weather warnings and advisories. The reports will be available to federal and state agencies, emergency managers, and the media through the NOAA Weather Wire and commercial weather vendors. The 11-month test ends in May 1997.
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For the most accurate and up-to-date 1996 summer Olympics weather information, check out the NWS Olympic web page at http://www.nws.noaa.gov./olympics/olympics.html. The summer Olympics in Atlanta will begin 19 July and close 4 August. NWS, with some international support, is providing weather prediction services for the games using equipment with the latest technology.
Also, NWS's Climate Prediction Center's World Wide Web page will keep folks informed on the summer drought situation through http://nic,fb4.noaa.gov. Additional drought information from the National Drought Mitigation Center is available at http://enso.unl.edi/ndmc. Anyone interested in learning more about the NWS and other NOAA programs should try surfing on the NOAA Public Affairs World Wide Web homepage at http://www.noaa.gov/public-affairs
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A new study by government and university researchers shows how air moves chemicals between different regions of the stratosphere, which may help scientists better understand the depletion of the ozone layer, NOAA announced recently. The findings could also affect assessment of the environmental impact of a proposed fleet of supersonic aircraft and the possible ozone-depleting pollutants they emit.
In the current issue of Science, researchers from NOAA's Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) and Aeronomy Laboratory (AL) in Boulder, CO, the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES) at the University of Colorado, NASA, the California Institute of Technology, and the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, report on a study that looks at the rate of exchange of air between the tropical (within 20° latitude of the equator and midlatitude (30°–50° latitude in both hemispheres) regions of the stratosphere. These air motions are critical to understanding the thinning of the stratospheric ozone layer that protects the earth's surface from the sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation.
The exchange of air between midlatitudes and the Tropics is particularly important because, in the Tropics, the atmospheric air motion transports natural and human-made gasses upward to higher altitudes in the stratosphere, somewhat like a vertical pipe. Some chemicals, such as CFCs, decompose at these higher altitudes, releasing by-products that destroy ozone. How fast the ozone-damaging by-products are released, how they are distributed throughout the stratosphere, and how fast ozone is depleted over populated regions at midlatitudes depends, among other things, on how fast air is exchanged between this tropical pipe and the midlatitudes.
To investigate the air motions, researchers used a new instrument developed by scientists at CMDL and AL in Boulder. This instrument was designed to measure several tracer gases that can be used to track air motions. It flew aboard a high-altitude ER-2 stratospheric research plane, operated by NASA, in wide-ranging flights in the Tropics and in both hemispheres during 1994.
The researchers observed the tropical pipe in action, and found that midlatitude air gets to the Tropics more slowly than previously thought. "Many current computer models that quantify and predict ozone depletion assume very rapid mixing of tropical and midlatitude air, but our measurements demonstrate that the actual rate of exchange is rather slow," said lead author Michael Volk.
"We suggest that this might be one of the reasons why models tend to underestimate the observed decline in ozone at midlatitudes during the past two decades," said James Elkins, coauthor of the paper and one of the lead developers of the instrument that made the key measurements. The findings should improve the ability of computer models to represent the amount of ozone depletion that is observed in the atmosphere and to predict future losses of ozone.
The study also has implications for the investigation of the environmental impact of a proposed fleet of civil supersonic aircraft that would emit gases and particles directly into the lower stratosphere at heights between 55,000 and 75,000 feet. The researchers found that nearly half of the air in the tropical stratosphere at 70,000 feet actually originated at midlatitudes, where most of the aircraft emissions would occur. Emissions that enter the Tropics can be carried to higher altitudes, where increased amounts of some aircraft pollutants could contribute to ozone loss.
"This study has helped us to understand how much and how quickly the air from midlatitude flight corridors would reach the upwelling region of the Tropics," said coauthor David Fahey. "The atmospheric models will be able to make better estimates of the potential effects of supersonic aircraft on the ozone layer."
This research is supported in part by the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft component of NASA's High Speed Research Program, NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Program, and the Atmospheric Chemistry Project of NOAA's Climate and Global Change Program.
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Ozone over the Hawaiian Islands reached record lows during the winter of 1994–95, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists reported in the June issue of Geophysical Research Letters. Ozone values this low have not previously occurred over populated areas except on rare occasions near the extreme northern and southern latitudes.
According to the study, total ozone dropped below 200 Dobson units (DU) in December 1994 for the first time since measurements began at the Mauna Loa Observatory over 30 years ago. Dobson units are a measure of the thickness of the ozone overhead. The ozone layer protects humans and other biological systems from harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation.
Ultraviolet radiation is measured at Mauna Loa by the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center. According to their measurements, as ozone decreased from 260 to 200 DU (a 23% decline) between October and December, UV rays from the sun increased, resulting in about a 40% increase in the sun-burning portion of the solar spectrum. It has been difficult to verify this expected relation between decreasing ozone and increasing UV over populated regions because of interfering clouds and air pollution. The pristine, cloud-free atmosphere of Mauna Loa, however, is ideal for such measurements.
According to lead author David Hofmann, director of NOAA's Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory in Boulder, CO, normally winter in Hawaii is the time of year for minimum ozone and maximum UV. But some winters have lower ozone amounts than others, he says. For example, there have been 12 winters in the past 31 years with ozone levels that ranged from 5% to 10% below the average winter value. The winter of 1994–95 was one of the more unusual ones, with ozone levels at about 13% below normal.
Comparing the ozone records at Mauna Loa with equatorial stratospheric winds, the researchers found that each low-ozone winter corresponded to a year when the wind changed direction from easterly to westerly during the previous summer.
They believe that these low-ozone events occur due to vertical motions of the ozone layer in the Tropics, which vary depending on whether the winds at the equator are westerly or easterly. Low ozone occurs only following a change in wind direction from east to west, which happens on average only every 3 years or so. Using these results, it will be possible to predict when a low-ozone winter in Hawaii will occur simply by observing the pattern of stratospheric winds at the equator during the previous summer. This information could be beneficial to vacationers who would be interested in knowing when high UV winters in Hawaii are likely to occur.
Hofmann and colleagues indicated that while the average difference in ozone between a low-ozone winter, typically 220 DU, and a normal-ozone winter, typically 240 DU, is only about 8%, the amount of UV that causes sunburning would be about 15% higher.
They cautioned that while this was true for Mauna Loa at 11,150-foot altitude, the intervening atmosphere would tend to reduce the amount of UV on the beaches; however, the percentage increase in UV between a high- and low-ozone winter would be similar.
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Scientists from United Nations health and environmental agencies are warning of serious threats to public health if actions to reduce climate change come too slowly.
In a report issued by the World Health Organization, the World Meteorological Organization, and the United Nations Environmental Program as follow-up talks to the 1992 Rio Conference resumed in Geneva, the scientists reported that warming due to air pollution "could have a wide range of impacts on human health, most of which would be adverse."
The major cities could see thousands of additional deaths each year during heat waves, and tens of millions of people could face the risk of malaria in parts of the world where the disease does not now occur, were two examples cited in the 262-page report, considered one of the most thorough examinations of the issue to date.
While the report concedes that predictions are fraught with uncertainty, it warns scientists against taking a "wait-and-see" approach because the possible consequences of inaction are so dire.
Concerns about possible health consequences of global warming have become increasingly widespread among those scientists who believe that the earth's climate will change rapidly in the coming century as pollution in the atmosphere traps solar radiation—the so-called greenhouse effect.
Industrial nations already are falling short of their initial goals, which they established in a 1992 treaty for controlling pollution from carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. In the treaty, ratified by 159 nations, the industrialized countries agreed to reduce and stabilize the emissions of greenhouse gases by the year 1999. However, almost none of them will meet that target, according to the report.
In the United States, which adopted a largely voluntary program to reduce the pollution, greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise every year since the treaty was written in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.
Another report, issued recently in London by the World Energy Council, an independent research group, reported that carbon dioxide emissions, largely from burning of fossil fuels, rose 12% between 1990 and 1995 and urged that immediate action be required to reverse the trend.
However, representatives of major energy-producing and consuming industries, like John Schiaes of the Global Climate Coalition, argue that there is no rush and that steps to control emissions before further research is conducted would cause grave economic harm.
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The combination of a one-third cutback in the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) research staff, a sharp increase in the administrative duties assigned to scientists, and a shift toward extramural rather than in-house research has severely diminished the agency's ability to produce sound environmental studies. As a result, the quality of science produced in EPA laboratories has plummeted into a "state of crisis."
That's the complaint of David Lewis, a veteran EPA microbiologist, outlined in an article in the latest issue of Nature, a leading British scientific journal.
One of the major problems, Lewis contends, is that scientists are so caught up in paperwork and bureaucratic red tape that they have little time to spend in laboratories.
"Administrative duties, which previously allowed scientists to spend only half their time doing research, have become more onerous," he wrote. "Ecologists are concerned that at a time when they should be putting more scientists and resources into research laboratories ... centralization of the organization into national laboratories will damage their research efforts."
The biggest problem, however, he continued, is that the agency sometimes rushes to issue regulations to protect public health before scientists can perform adequate research and analysis. Instead of leading the development of regulations, he reported, researchers sometimes are expected to follow along and justify them.
Lewis told a Washington Post reporter that his views are widely shared among other EPA researchers. "Many have decided that the situation is so bad for researchers that they are either waiting out their time until retirement or actively looking for other jobs," he said.
The criticisms are much the same as those voiced by GOP lawmakers recently.
Lewis, 48, is one of EPA's top senior researchers. He joined EPA when it was founded in 1970 and has gradually gained higher responsibilities to become one of its leading researchers at the agency's Athens, GA, laboratory.
Lewis reported that he had made several attempts to express his concerns to EPA Administrator Carol M. Browner and others but received "absolutely no response."
In the article, Lewis suggests a new Department of the Environment should be created to oversee federal ecological research, including some work now being done by the Departments of Agriculture and Interior. He also recommended that a leading environmental scientist be appointed head of the agency and that an overhaul of the agency's research efforts be made.
EPA officials said they already have taken steps to respond to many of the criticisms raised by Lewis.
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NASA has selected a design by Lockheed-Martin Corporation as the prototype of the next generation rocket ship to replace the space shuttle and to carry America's space program into the 21st century.
Announcement of the selection was made by Vice President Al Gore at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA, on 2 July.
The wedge-shaped, reusable vehicle, known as the X33, will be the first major new spacecraft built by the United States in 25 years.
The Lockheed-Martin design was chosen after an intense competition with two other California aerospace companies, Rockwell International and McDonnell Douglas Aerospace.
The futuristic "Venture Star" design will receive an initial $941 million in development funding through 1999, and the Bethesda, MD, -based Lockheed-Martin will invest some $220 million of its own.
Under terms of the agreement, Lockheed-Martin's legendary "skunk works" in Palmdale, CA, will oversee construction of a half-sized model of the spacecraft by March 1999 and will complete 15 test flights by the end of that year.
The entire cost of building the new reusable launch vehicle (RLV) could be as high as $8 billion, and NASA hopes the vehicle will be operational by the middle of the next decade.
Like the current space shuttles, the new vehicle will be launched vertically and land horizontally. However, unlike the shuttle, which uses detachable booster rockets during launch, the Venture Star design includes a self-contained, reusable engine of radical design. The nozzle of the hydrogen-and-liquid-oxygen-burning "aerospike" engine flares wide horizontally, giving the exhaust more room to expand as the atmosphere thins during ascent.
The engine, built by Rockwell, automatically compensates for decreasing atmospheric pressure as the vehicle ascends, according to company literature.
NASA Administrator Dan Goldin stressed that the project marked a radical departure from the way NASA has done business in the past, saying the new system will make NASA a "user, not an operator."
The intent of the RLV program, he said during a press conference at JPL following the vice president's announcement, is to "build a vehicle that takes days, not months, to turn around; dozens, not thousands, of people to operate; reliability 10 times better than anything flying today; and launch costs that are a tenth of what they are now. Our goal is a reusable launch vehicle that will cut the cost of a pound of payload to orbit from $10,000 to $1,000."
The X-33 will integrate and demonstrate all the technologies in a scale version that would be needed for industry to build a full-sized RLV. "The X-33 will be about half the size of a full-scale RLV. It will be remotely piloted, suborbital vehicle, capable of altitudes up to 50 miles and speeds of Mach 15," said RLV Director Gary Payton.
The X-33 program is being conducted under a cooperative agreement, not a conventional customer/supplier contract. Under this agreement, NASA defined the broad objectives and industry proposed an approach to meet the objectives. "Cooperative agreements are performance-based," said Payton. "Payment is made only after the industry partner completes a predetermined milestone."
The Venture Star team includes prime contractor Lockheed Martin Skunk Works, Palmdale; Rocketdyne, Canoga Park, CA; Rohr, Chula Vista, CA; and Allied Signal Aerospace, Teterboro, NJ.
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During a season in which fires have scorched more than 23 million acres of Mongolian forest and range lands, a NASA meteorological satellite receiving station is helping to save lives and livestock.
An exceptionally dry winter that saw little snowfall has given way to a hot and dry summer providing tinder for large forest fires across northern Mongolia. The conflagration has consumed 8.6 million acres of forests and 14.3 million acres of grasslands and has claimed 800 lives and 7,800 livestock. It could, however, have been much worse for man and beast.
In the midst of this record-setting fire season, in May Goddard Space Flight Center researcher Dr. Compton J. Tucker travelled to Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, site of the satellite station, to monitor its operations. Because of the rapidly changing course and intensity of the fires, keeping the station in operation has become extremely important to the Mongolian firefighting effort. Tucker said the NASA-installed equipment has played a key role in fighting the fires.
"The meteorological satellite receiving station is invaluable for locating wild fires and tracking their movements," Tucker said. Using several channels on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer instrument aboard a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite, wild fires can be identified and monitored.
According to the American Ambassador to Mongolia, Donald C. Johnson, the meteorological station is providing the Mongolian National Emergency Commission with day-to-day reports on the fires' progress throughout the country. The near real-time information has allowed the commission to warn inhabitants, especially those with large herds, to move out of the pats of flames to safety.
Ambassador Johnson said that the Mongolian station employees rise each day at 2 or 3 A.M. to catch the first pass of the NOAA satellite. They then prepare a comprehensive report for the emergency commission pinpointing the location of fires, tracking the movement and giving early warning to government officials.
NASA provided the satellite receiving station to Mongolia through a Memorandum of Understanding agreement. In June 1995, Goddard hardware engineer Patrick Coronado and software engineers Gene Shaffer and Allan Lunsford, all of the Space Data and Computing Division in the Earth Sciences Directorate, installed a new antenna, image processing system, and other equipment at the receiving station. In December, NASA and Mongolia extended the Memorandum of Understanding for an additional 5 years.
Ambassador Johnson, in a letter to NASA Administrator Dan Goldin, praised the work of Tucker and his associates and said, "I have made improved science cooperation with Mongolia one of the top priorities during my service here as ambassador. Contributions such as the NASA provided station have enabled us to strengthen this bilateral cooperation in ways that are tangible and clearly understood by the 'average citizen.'"
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NASA has selected the team leader and other members of the science team for the future Landsat 7 remote-sensing satellite and awarded grants to promising earth scientists in the early stages of their research careers.
The Landsat 7 science team will be led by Dr. Samuel Goward of the University of Maryland at College Park. Other team members are based at universities in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, and New York; the U.S. Geological Survey and Department of Agriculture; NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD; and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA.
All the scientists will be working in support of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth program, a long-term comprehensive research effort to better understand the earth as an integrated system of land, water, air, and life.
Landsat 7 is scheduled for launch in December 1998 with a main objective of continuing the record of remote-sensing measurements of earth's land surfaces made by the Landsat series of satellites since 1972.
Mission to Planet Earth's "New Investigator Program" (NIP) is designed to provide financial support to scientists and engineers at an early stage of their professional career. NIP proposals were restricted to recent Ph.D. recipients graduating no more than 5 years before the issue date of the announcement. The proposed investigations had to be based on analysis, interpretation, and significant use of data from space-based observations leading to an improved understanding of the earth system and global climate change.
Twenty-one of the 67 submitted proposals were selected, with researchers based at 18 universities, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution near Boston, MA, Goddard Space Flight Center, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
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The council of the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) announced the appointment of newly elected councillor William A. Wulf as interim president of the NAE effective 17 July.
Elected to serve a 3-year term as NAE councillor on 26 June, Wulf, AT&T Professor of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Virginia, was appointed by the council to the position of interim president while the NAE immediately begins the process of selecting a permanent president. The membership will participate in the selection of a nominating committee, and a special election will be held as soon as possible. Wulf succeeds Harold Liebowitz who was recently recalled as president by a vote of the NAE membership.
In addition to his current post, Wulf has had a distinguished professional career that includes serving as assistant director of the National Science Foundation; chairman and CEO of Tartan Laboratories Incorporated, Pittsburgh, PA; and professor of computer science at the Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh. Wulf was elected to NAE membership in 1993 and serves as chair of the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board of the National Research Council.
The 1,840-member National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the congressional charter granted to the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government and managing of the National Research Council.
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Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Geology, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, Palisades, NY, has been named by President Clinton as one of 13 1996 recipients of the nation's highest science and technology honors, the Nation Medal of Science and the National Medal of Technology.
Broecker was one of five people to receive the National Medal of Science. He was honored for his pioneering contributions in understanding chemical change in the oceans and atmosphere. His research encompasses theories of global climate change over the centuries and brings a broad perspective to the current debate over higher concentrations of greenhouse gases as a cause of global warming.
In announcing the medal winners, President Clinton said, "the 13 recipients of these prestigious medals are American champions of research and innovation for their leadership and originality, we honor them with America's version of the Nobel Prize—the National Medal of Science and the National Medal of Technology.
"Our nation is grateful to these visionaries for advancing our base of knowledge. And American industry especially is indebted to them for contributing vital new discoveries and applications that businesses have developed into cutting edge ideas, products and processes. Fueled by science and technology, American enterprise remains the worlds leader in today's global marketplace."
The Medal of Science, established by Congress and administered by the National Science Foundation, honors individuals for contributions to the present state of knowledge in physical, biological, mathematical, engineering, or social and behavioral sciences. The medal has now been awarded to 344 distinguished scientists and engineers.
Other 1996 Medal of Science winners are Norman Davidson, Norman W. Chandler Professor Emeritus and executive officer of the Division of Biology at the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; James L. Flanagan, director of the Center for Computer Aids for Industrial Productivity and vice president for Research at Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Richard M. Karp, professor, Department of Computer Sciences and Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Kumar N. Patel, vice chancellor for research, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA.
Winners of the Medal of Technology included Charles H. Caiman, Caiman Corporation, Bloomfield, CN; Stephanie Louise Kwolek, DuPont Corporation, Wilmington, DE; James C. Morgan, Applied Materials, Incorporated, Santa Clara, CA; Peter H. Rose, Krytek Corporation, Danvers, MA; Ruth Patrick, Academy of Natural Sciences, Philadelphia, PA; Paul A. Samuelson, MIT, Cambridge, MA; Johnson and Johnson, New Brunswick, NJ; and Stephen Smale, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA.
The Medal of Technology recognizes groundbreaking contributions that commercialize a technology, create jobs, improve productivity, or stimulate the nation's growth and development in other ways. Since its establishment by Congress, the medal—administered by the Department of Commerce—has been awarded to 94 individuals and seven companies.
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Dr. Tiruvalam N. Krishnamurti, professor of Meteorology at The Florida State University, has been awarded the 1996 International Meteorological Organization Prize.
Paul F. Holloway, director of NASA's Langley Research Center since October 1991, has announced his resignation no later than October 1996. Holloway, who began his career with NASA in 1960 as an aerospace research engineer, said he is stepping down "to allow the appointment of a center director who could make a longer-term commitment to steering Langley through the challenges facing the agency for the rest of the decade."
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