Editor: Jim Elliot

Contributors: Alan Weinstein, Ginny Frost, and Julie Burba

Copy Editor: Helen Beattie

Volume 18, Number 2, February 1997

Contents:

GOVERNMENT NEWS

• President Sends FY98 Budget to Congress
• National Science Foundation Seeks FY98 Budget of $3.367 Billion
• NASA Seeks FY98 Budget of $13.5 Billion
• NOAA FY98 Budget Request Seeks $78.5 Million Increase
• NAS Report: Analyzing the Federal S&T Investment, FY94–97
• Gramm Bill Would Double Federal Research Dollars by 2007
• Several Freshmen in Congress Favor Dismantling Departments of Energy, Commerce, and Education

WEATHER AND CLIMATE

• Secretary of Commerce Approves Production of 21 Advanced Weather Interactive Processing Systems
• Repeat of 1996 Floods Not Likely in Northeast
• NOAA-Funded Study Indicates "Predictability" of North Atlantic Climate
• Forecasters Guide Pilots into and out of Ice
• From Coast to Coast, FASTEX Is Probing Winter Storms across the Atlantic
• NOAA/NCAR Scientists to Monitor Turbulence in Colorado Springs
• New NOAA Ship to Be Home Ported in Charleston
• Snow Depth Measurements Offered by CDIAC

SATELLITES AND SPACE

• NASA Sensors Provide Safe Platform for Volcano Studies
• January Solar Storm Is One of Best Documented Ever
• GOES-K Moves to KSC in Preparation for April Launch
• NASA Solicits New Earth-Imaging Radar Satellite

ENVIRONMENT AND GLOBAL CHANGE

• As Global Climate Warms, More Floods Are Expected

AMS ANNUAL MEETING

• Membership Survey Reveals Few Surprises but Much Promise
• Baker Reports on NWS Future Plans
• NSF Conducts Town Meeting

NEWS FROM EUROPE

• NATO Establishes New Research and Technology Board

PEOPLE IN THE NEWS

• University of Oklahoma Meteorologist James F. Kimpel Named National Severe Storms Lab Director
• Elliot Abrams Named "Radio–TV Broadcaster of the Year"
• Jim Hansen Receives Nordberg Award
• European Geophysical Society (EGS) Medals to Schott and Hoskins

GOVERNMENT NEWS

PRESIDENT SENDS FY98 BUDGET TO CONGRESS

from FYI, Richard M. Jones, American Institute of Physics

On 6 February, the Clinton administration sent its FY98 budget request to Congress. As was expected, the budget moves toward a balanced budget in 2002, and therefore many programs were reduced significantly to lower the deficit and make room for his planned investments.

Dr. John Gibbons, assistant to the president for science and technology, briefed a standing-room-only audience about the science and technology request. A comment he made toward the end of the briefing sets the tone for this year: "If we are going to balance the budget, everyone will have to take part in that process."

Total FY98 federal research and development funding would rise 2%, or $1.6 billion, to $75.5 billion under this request. While this is significantly less than in previous years, under current conditions, this is generally seen as pretty good by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Some general indicators within the budget request are the following.

• Of the agencies identified, R&D budget authority for the Defense Department would decline the most from the current year: -2%. Department of Transportation and Department of Energy R&D would increase the most: +18% each. OMB explains that the DOE's budget includes an extra $1 billion in up-front funding for defense facilities acquisition.
• Other R&D budgets would increase as follows: Commerce Department, +6%; National Science Foundation, +4%; NASA, +3%.
• Under the request, total federal applied research funding: +4%; basic research: +3%.
• Under the request, total federal civilian applied research: +6%; basic research, +3%.
• Under the request, total defense applied research: -1%; basic research: +5%.
• The administration's budget would increase R&D support to universities by +2%.

Gibbons and T. J. Glauthier of OMB discussed the funding outlook for the next 5 years. Gibbons stated that "the president's baseline outyear budget plan proposes civilian R&D to grow by 2% (nominal) between 1998 and 2002.... Above this base, I fully expect some increases—including those required to launch exciting new initiatives—to be realized each year, at the time that year's budget request is prepared and submitted to Congress."

According to Glauthier, OMB wants federal science agencies to have a steady, conservative funding profile for the next 5 years to better plan and manage their programs.

Gibbons concluded his prepared remarks by citing last November's elections and said, "...what emerged is clear: the American public and the vast majority in Congress support a strong federal research program.... It is time to... rebuild the historical bipartisan support for a strategy to maintain America's world leadership in science and technology into the twenty-first century. We need to put our disagreements aside and look for the common ground we once shared, the common commitments to keep America the world's undisputed leader in S&T while bringing the budget to balance."

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION SEEKS FY98 BUDGET OF $3.367 BILLION

President Clinton's proposed FY98 budget for the National Science Foundation (NSF) is $3.367 billion. The proposed new year budget represents a $97 million increase, or 3%, over the FY97 enacted allocation of $3.270 billion. The FY96 NSF budget was $3.206 billion. A breakdown of the proposed budget by activity shows the following. (Dollars are shown in millions.)

In the Directorate of Geosciences, the breakdown is as follows.

The increase in Geosciences is 1.5%, in contrast to the 3.0% increase for the National Science Foundation as a whole.

The following goals will guide Geosciences activities:

• advancement of knowledge about the earth system,
• enhancement of the infrastructure for geoscience research, and
• improvement of the quality of education and training.

In FY98, Geosciences' support of education and training will be $4.63 million, an increase of 36.2%. Support for research projects and facilities will be $279 million and $168 million, respectively, approximately a 1% increase in each area.

Geosciences will provide $4 million support to the foundation-wide effort in knowledge and distributed intelligence and will continue to participate in the highly interdisciplinary, integrated research program, Life in Extreme Environments, as well as the foundation-wide major research instrumentation program.

Priorities for FY98 in GEO include increased support for the U.S. Weather Research Program, the National Space Weather Program, Research Experience for Undergraduates, and several programs associated with the U.S. Global Change Research program, including Earth System History, Global Troposphere Chemistry, and Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics.

NASA SEEKS FY98 BUDGET OF 13.5 BILLION

President Clinton has proposed an FY98 budget of $13.5 billion for NASA. The proposal represents a $200 million reduction from the FY97 budget of $13.7.

However, in a budget press conference on 8 February, NASA Administrator Dan Goldin said that the president had delivered on his commitment to the space program. "The president," he said, "put in place stable funding for the next 5 years. The president had his own challenge in balancing a smaller budget with relevant programs. NASA was one of the places he had to look at carefully. He saw NASA has taken its cuts and still produced world class science. He saw that NASA has performed. But it is more than NASA performing. This stable funding shows the commitment this administration has to science and technology."

Under the president's proposal, Goldin explained, the FY98 funding of $13.5 billion will be followed by a budget of $13.4 billion in 1999 and $13.2 billion for 2000 and beyond. This new 5-year projection is a vast improvement over last year's, although it will result in an almost 20% decrease in today's dollars by 2002.

Under the president's proposal, human space flight is proposed for $5.326 billion, a decrease from the $5.674 billion in FY97; science, aeronautics, and technology is earmarked for $5.642 billion, up from $5.453 in FY97; mission support would get $ 2.513 billion, down from the $2.564 billion it got last year; and the Inspector General's Office would get $18.3 million, an increase over the FY97 budget of $17 million. Under human space flight, the FY98 budget provides for $2.121 billion for the space station, down from last year's $2.148 billion; the space shuttle would get $2.977 billion, down from $3.150 last year; and payload and utilizations operations would get $227 million, down from the $275 million in FY97. No money was earmarked for the U.S./Russian Cooperative Program.

Interestingly, Goldin, when commenting on the 5-year budget outlook for NASA, emphasized the Origins Program, designed to answer questions about the universe; an accelerated pace for the Mars Surveyor Program; a program to develop a new generation of high-tech, low-cost, intelligent spacecraft and science instruments to explore Europa, fly close to Pluto and the sun, and return samples from a comet; a Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF) launch in 2001 to examine galaxy, star, and planetary system formation; and a program to develop the technologies required to build the Next Generation Space Telescope.

In science, aeronautics, and technology, the breakdown shows the following. (Dollars are shown in millions.)

The budget for FY98 for Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) increases slightly.

Upcoming activities over the next 2 years in the MTPE include the launch of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission in late 1997, launch of the Lewis and Clark Land Imaging Spacecraft in 1997, launch of EOS-AM1 in June of 1998, and launch of Landsat 7 in 1998. The EOSDIS will release Version 1 in 1997.

NOAA FY98 BUDGET REQUEST SEEKS $78.5 MILLION INCREASE

The FY98 NOAA budget request is $2,051.2 million in new total budget authority, an increase of $78.5 million over the FY97 enacted level. In announcing the budget proposal, NOAA Administrator D. James Baker said, "This budget reflects the need to downsize the federal government, while at the same time preserving the administration's priorities in sustaining investments in science, technology, and environmental protection. We have carefully scrutinized NOAA's mission of prediction and protection in our natural environment and used the president's priorities to determine how we can best distribute our budgetary resources."

Of the $2,051.2 million, $1,540.8 million are in the Operations, Research, and Facilities (ORF) account, $503.5 million are in a new Capital Assets Acquisition (CAA) account, and $6.9 million are for fisheries funds and other special accounts.

The creation of the Capital Assets Acquisition account responds to the requirements of the Federal Acquisition Streamlining Act of 1994 and the Information Technology Management Reform Act of 1996, and includes capital projects contained formerly in the Operations Research and Facilities (ORF) account and the Construction account. Placing projects in this account is consistent with the administration's fixed asset policy by seeking advanced appropriations for multiyear projects. Thus, to fully understand the impact of the proposed budget one must examine both the ORF and Capital Asset Acquisition (CAA) account proposals. For example, the budget announcement lists FY98 funding at $1,540.8 million. The Capital Assets account figure of $503.5 million, plus $6.9 million in other accounts, brings the total NOAA budget to $2,051.2 million. Looking at NESDIS, the proposal lists $149.48 million in ORF funding, but $320.58 million for Capital Assets, bringing the NESDIS total to $470.06 million. Similarly for the National Weather Service, in FY98 the ORF request is $503.7 million and the CAA is $138.7 million, for a total of $642.4 million.

The president's proposals take big ORF whacks at both the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) and the National Weather Service (NWS). NESDIS suffered the largest slash, a reduction of $298.097 million from its FY97 allocation of $447.582 million, and NWS suffered a $134.234 million cut from its FY97 budget of $637.997 million.

A breakdown shows the following. (Dollars are shown in thousands.)

The breakout of the FY98 budget for NOAA's seven strategic goals is as follows. (Dollars are shown in thousands.)

There are many "puts and takes" in all five line components, which make it difficult to evaluate the situation of each line component. However, one can see that the total budgets of NOS, NMFS, and NESDIS increase by 5% or more; NWS's budget increases less than 1%; and OAR's budget decreases by 2%. Pay increases and inflationary costs of operating will make it more difficult for line components to operate effectively within these budget requests.

The number of personnel in NOAA has decreased the last few years, and the decrease will continue through 1999. As a reference, in 1994, NOAA had 14,590 employees; in 1997 the total is 13,244; in 1999 the total is projected to be 12,248.

Even more striking, only $686.96 million of the $2.051 billion is included under the administration's activity entitled environmental investments, and all of these funds are in OAR, NMFS, and NOS. Surprisingly, none of the NWS or NESDIS budgets are included in the category environmental investments.

A brief look at the largest increases and decreases in the line components follows.

National Ocean Survey

The National Ocean Survey requests $224.8 million. This is a net increase of $18.9 million over FY97. This change consists of program increases of $45.2 million and program decreases of $26.2 million. The largest increase in NOS is in Ocean and Coastal Management, which receives an increase of about $25 million, of which $18 million is for the administration's Clean Water Initiative. Charting budgets continue to decrease, and acquisition of data is decreased by about 20%, from $18.2 million to $14.5 million.

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The budget request for the Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is $248.1 million. This is a net decrease of $5.2 million below FY97, which consists of program increases of $10.6 million and program decreases of $15.8 million. The largest increase, $4.9 million, is in Interannual and Seasonal Climate Research to ensure a stable funding base for maintenance of the TOGA Observing System. The largest decreases are in Sea Grant ($4.1 million) and in the Undersea Research Program ($6.6 million). Small increases of $1 million are requested for the Health of the Atmosphere and GLOBE Programs. The Atmospheric Research Program remains unchanged in absolute dollars.

National Weather Service

The National Weather Service requests $642.5 million for FY98. This is a net decrease of $10 million for Operations and Research and an increase of $14.4 million for Systems Acquisition from FY97. Of the $642.5 million, $138.7 million are included in the Capital Assets Acquisition account. The largest increases in NWS is for AWIPS, an increase from $100 million to $116.9 million. An increase of $10.8 million is requested for base operations to offset mandatory cost increases and the $36 million decrease in FY97. None of the requested increase can be used to restore any of the NCEP or headquarters cuts made in FY97. Reductions in MARDI of $17.78 million are requested and the funding for the Regional Climatic Centers ($4 million) is eliminated.

National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services (NESDIS)

National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services requests $470.1 million. This reflects program increases of $90.2 million and program decreases of $67.8 million from FY97. The largest increases are $66.19 million for GOES and $22.5 million for Polar Convergence. The largest decrease is $64.39 million for polar satellites. The budget for Environmental Data Management System activities will decrease about $1 million, including a reduction of $2.5 million in operations and an increase of $1.5 million for modernization. It is interesting to note that the NESDIS budget is projected to increase by $200 million in 1999.

National Marine Fisheries Service

National Marine Fisheries Service requests $338.3 million for FY98. This is a net increase of $16.6 million over FY97. The largest increases are $7.7 million for implementation of Fisheries Management Programs, and $6.7 million for the Endangered Species Act Recovery Plan.

NAS REPORT: ANALYZING THE FEDERAL S&T INVESTMENT, FY94–97

from FYI, Audrey Leath, American Institute of Physics

Declining federal research budgets over the last 4 years may be having "a disproportionate impact... on fields of research other than health, such as the physical sciences, engineering, and the social sciences." This is one finding highlighted in a report released 16 January by the National Academy of Sciences: "The Federal Science and Technology Budget, FY 1997." The 15-page document analyzes trends in federal spending for science and technology, in inflation-adjusted dollars, both for the past year and for the period from fiscal year 1994 to fiscal year 1997. While science and technology funding showed a slight increase in the past year, the report notes that this is not enough to offset a general decline since FY94.

This analysis follows up on a 1995 National Academy report entitled "Allocation of Federal Funds for Science and Technology." To more precisely measure and analyze "the federal investment in new knowledge and new technologies," that report called for defining a federal science and technology (FS&T) budget different from what is normally considered the nation's R&D budget. FS&T funding would incorporate "activities that produce or expand use of new knowledge or new or enabling technologies," but not include such R&D activities as testing or evaluation of weapons systems. Both documents were produced by panels chaired by former Presidential Science Advisor Frank Press. In his cover letter to the newly released report, Press states, "This report is the first in a planned series of annual reports from the NAS that will analyze the president's budget request and the final approved appropriations bills for trends in federal budgetary support for science and technology work." Some of the report's major findings are covered below.

Changes in FS&T appropriations from FY96 to FY97 are as follows.

• The report finds that "from FY 1996 to FY 1997, FS&T fared slightly better than the federal discretionary budget of which it is a part."
• The total FS&T appropriation for FY97, at about $43.4 billion, shows a 0.7% increase in constant dollars over the FY96 appropriation.
• The FS&T budget for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) increased by 5.3% to almost $13 billion (NIH represents the majority of the HHS budget at more than $12 billion in FY97).
• Because HHS received a larger increase from FY96–97 than federal S&T funding as a whole, if its share is subtracted out, the rest of FS&T would show a decline of 1.2%.
• Department of Commerce S&T grew 5.4% to $1.0 billion.
• Department of Energy S&T increased 1.6% to $5.4 billion.
• National Science Foundation S&T "received a nominal increase of $24 million," which represents a loss of 1.2% after adjusting for inflation.
• Department of Defense S&T overall was reduced by 1.1%, but basic research within DOD declined by 7.0%.

Longer-term trends from FY94 to FY97 are as follows.

• In real terms, FS&T declines 5% from FY94 to FY97.
• Of the departments and agencies included in the FS&T budget, only two—HHS and NSF—receive more funding now than they did in FY94. (HHS funding increased 8.1% over that period; NSF funding increased 1.8%.)
• If HHS funding were subtracted out, the overall funding for federal S&T would show a drop of 9.7% from FY94 to FY97.
• Most of the remaining major R&D agencies have seen a decline in their S&T budgets from FY94 to FY97: DOD S&T funding dropped 11.1% in constant dollars, while DOE S&T funding dropped almost 14%.

The recent NAS report can be ordered, free of charge, from the Committee on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications at 202-334-3061, or it can be found on the World Wide Web in PDF format at http://www.nas.edu/fsrd/fs&t.html

The NAS analysis of past budget trends provides a context in which to consider the president's FY98 budget request to Congress.

GRAMM BILL WOULD DOUBLE FEDERAL RESEARCH DOLLARS BY 2007

Senator Phil Gramm (R-TX) has introduced a bill that would permit the doubling of federal spending on nonefense R&D over the next 10 years. The bill, introduced on 21 January, would increase the spending from $32.5 billion in FY97 to $65 billion in FY2007. The National Research Investment Act of 1997 (S.124), cosponsored by Republicans Connie Mack of Florida and Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, would specify annual authorization levels for a collection of programs encompassing most federal R&D activities.

NIH funding would rise by increments of $1.275 billion/year, or 10% of its current FY97 appropriation of $12.75 billion. Funding for the remaining 11 programs covered by the bill, including NSF, NASA, NIST, and nondefense R&D with DOE, now totaling $19.75 billion/year (also 10% of current funding), and the combined total, currently $32.5 billion, would grow by annual increments of $3.25 billion.

How the bill will fare in the new Congress is uncertain. New Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections indicate that the deficit might increase slightly this year, leading to warnings about a 5-year freeze on nondefense discretionary funds. The Gramm bill contains the following language: "No funds may be made available under this act in a manner that does not conform with the discretionary spending caps provided in the most recently adopted concurrent resolution of the budget." In addition, as an authorization bill, it only would permit these new levels of funding to be spent but not provide them—that job is up to the appropriators; "... in order to be sure the increase in funding is spent wisely," Gramm said, "the bill gives priority to investments in basic science and medical research in order to develop new scientific knowledge which will be available in the public domain. The legislation does not allow funds to be used for the commercialization of technologies and allocates funds using a peer review system. Expanding the nation's commitment to basic research in science and medicine is a critically important investment in the future of our nation."

In introducing his bill, Gramm noted that federal R&D funding for nondefense programs has fallen in recent years. "In 1965, 5.7% of the federal budget was spent on nondefense research and development. Thirty-two years later, that figure has dropped by two-thirds to 1.9%. In no year since 1970 has the United States spent as large a percentage of its GDP on nondefense research and development as Japan or Germany... From 1992 through 1995, for the first time in 25 years, real federal spending on research declined for 4 straight years. If we don't restore the high priority once afforded science and technology in the federal budget and increase federal investment in research, it will be impossible to maintain the United States' position as the technological leader of the world.

"As a nation, we have an interest in the research funding decisions of the private sector. Investing in basic science and medical research can provide much needed help to all our technology companies without giving any single company a special advantage over its competitors. Our goal should be to raise all the boats in the harbor, not just the ones belonging to the politically well-connected."

SEVERAL FRESHMEN IN CONGRESS FAVOR DISMANTLING DEPARTMENTS OF ENERGY, COMMERCE, AND EDUCATION

At least three freshman senators and four new members of the House of Representatives favor elimination of the Departments of Energy, Commerce, and Education, according to a survey made by the American Institute of Physics.

In its Bulletin of Science Policy News for 18 November, it was reported that new Senators Wayne Allard (R-CA), Sam Brownback (R-KS), and Chuck Hagel (R-NE) have expressed their support for the elimination of those agencies. It indicated that two other new senators—Richard Durbin (D-IL) and Tim Hutchinson (R-AK)—are opposed to the space station.

While the bulletin indicated that its survey was not necessarily "comprehensive," it reported it had obtained the information from "various political biographies."

Among freshmen members of Congress supporting the elimination of the three agencies, according to the bulletin, are Robert Schaffer (R-CO), John Sununu (R-NH), Chris Cannon (R-UT), and Merrill Cook (R-UT).

WEATHER AND CLIMATE

SECRETARY OF COMMERCE APPROVES PRODUCTION OF 21 ADVANCED WEATHER INTERACTIVE PROCESSING SYSTEMS

On 13 February, the secretary of Commerce approved the National Weather Service's plan for production and installation of 21 interactive weather computer and communications systems that will help provide better weather- and flood-related services to protect life and property. The system, known as AWIPS, will allow forecasters to display and analyze satellite imagery, radar data, automated weather observations, and computer-generated numerical forecasts, all in one workstation. "The National Weather Service has clearly demonstrated that AWIPS will help forecasters provide better weather and flood-related services to protect our citizens," said Commerce Secretary William Daley. "The system has already become an invaluable resource at 12 initial test sites." The NWS will begin installing the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System at 21 field sites this summer and fall. A decision on installing the remaining sites is planned for December, after completion of an operational test and evaluation of the third incremental software build. The NWS is developing AWIPS in incremental stages to allow for continuous feedback that can be incorporated into ongoing development efforts. A total of 148 AWIPS systems will be installed. "We are pleased with the secretary's decision to move forward with installation of the centerpiece of our agency's modernization," said NWS Director Elbert W. Friday Jr. "AWIPS will allow our forecasters to make the most of the new technologies that we've put in place with the modernization. Now they will be able to rapidly gather and assess the most meaningful information needed to issue critical forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property." Over the past year, early versions of the sophisticated workstation and communications network were installed at 12 sites around the country for operational testing and evaluation. The tests demonstrated AWIPS' capabilities, including communication of weather satellite imagery and weather forecast guidance via a satellite broadcast network; the state-of-art workstation's ability to display and manipulate radar, satellite, and other weather data; and the operations of a central monitoring and communications facility. AWIPS is the integrating technology component of the NWS modernization effort, designed to provide the nation with improved weather services.

To date, 114 of the 123 planned state-of-the-art NWS Doppler radars and 227 of the planned 306 NWS automated surface observing systems are operational nationwide. Two advanced geostationary weather satellites, GOES-8 and GOES-9, are keeping watch over the United States and well into the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. In addition, 13 River Forecast Centers and 111 of the planned 119 new weather forecast offices are serving the country. The NWS modernization is expected to be completed around the turn of the century. Twenty-one AWIPS systems will be installed as follows. Eleven systems will be installed at modernized weather forecast offices: Oklahoma City, OK; Minneapolis and Duluth, MN; Bismarck, ND; Hastings, NE; Dallas/Fort Worth, TX; New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA; State College and Philadelphia, PA; New York City, NY; and Portland, OR. Five systems will be installed at River Forecast Centers: Minneapolis, Fort Worth, New Orleans/Baton Rouge, State College, and Portland. Two systems will be installed at the National Weather Service Training Center in Kansas City, MO; and three systems at NWS regional headquarters: Central Region Headquarters, Kansas City; Eastern Region Headquarters, Bohemia, NY; and Western Region Headquarters, Salt Lake City, UT. AWIPS is being developed by NOAA and PRC Inc. of McLean, VA. PRC, a subsidiary of Litton Industries Inc., with more than 5,600 employees in 150 offices nationwide, is a leading provider of information technology and systems-based solutions for the U.S. government and commercial customers. More information about AWIPS is available on the Internet at http://tgsv5.nws.noaa.gov/msm/awips/awipsmsm.htm

REPEAT OF 1996 FLOODS NOT LIKELY IN NORTHEAST

The major flooding experienced last year following the Blizzard of 1996 is not likely to occur in the northeastern United States this year, according to Flood Potential Outlook statements issued by National Weather Service field offices. Current flood potential conditions are in sharp contrast to a year ago, when the mid-Atlantic experienced widespread major flooding due to excessive snowmelt, heavy rain, and ice jams that caused 32 deaths and more than $2 billion in damage.

Present forecasts and outlooks do not indicate the formation of any significant weather events that will change the flood potential, the Weather Service said. In addition, heavy snowpacks with the ability to cause major flooding do not exist.

According to Solomon Summer, National Weather Service regional hydrologist, much above-normal precipitation during the past autumn has resulted in above-average soil moisture conditions throughout the Susquehanna River basin, the middle/lower Delaware River basin, New Jersey, Delaware, northeastern Maryland, and New England. However, with low snowfall totals and below-average streamflow, the potential for flooding at this time is average.

"Current conditions are in sharp contrast to a year ago when an exceptionally deep snowpack highlighted by the Blizzard of 1996 set the stage for historic floods," Summer said. "The catalyst for last year's flood event was the very warm, windy, and wet weather system that moved into the Susquehanna River basin in mid-January."

The flood potential for the Ohio Basin is also normal, and although the soils in the Ohio River valley have been wet since the fall, snowpack and snow water equivalent are low. These combined factors make the flood potential normal for this time of year, the regional hydrologist noted.

In New York and New England, the potential for snowmelt flooding is below normal. Snowfall in New England and New York State, except near the Great Lakes, differs from last year not by inches, but by feet. Many areas in New England are without any substantial snowpack and little snow water equivalent.

In the local areas downstream of the Great Lakes, lake effect snows have dropped heavy amounts on localized areas east of Lake Ontario and significant amounts across Buffalo and across the southern tier of New York. In western New York, the snow water equivalent is below normal in the Allegheny and Genesee Basins to near normal in the Buffalo area and Black River basins.

Ice-covered rivers and streams will also be on the increase in New England, northern Ohio, and northwestern Pennsylvania. Ice jam conditions should be monitored closely, as ice jams and ice jam breakups historically cause flooding in the same locations along rivers.

In the southeast, moderate rain events over the past week have caused minor rises on rivers within the Pee Dee River basin. Specifically, the Lumber River is flowing full and the forecast points are just above flood stage. This trend is expected to continue, as most flooding in the coastal plain in the southeast is driven by rainfall and runoff. In the Piedmont of the Carolinas, the flood potential is below normal, as both snowfall totals and streamflow are below normal for this time of year.

With respect to water supply, no shortages are expected during the upcoming spring or early summer, assuming near-normal precipitation during the next several months. Groundwater levels are generally above average, and water supply reservoirs are normal in most areas. The New York City Reservoir system is at 98.9% capacity, which is above average, while most reservoirs in central and northern New England are at normal capacity for this time of year.

The flood outlook estimates the potential for flooding across the eastern United States based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors that contribute to flooding. It should be recognized that heavy rainfall is the primary factor that leads to flooding, and heavy or excessive rainfall can rapidly cause flooding in any month of the year, even when the flood potential is considered below average. Other factors that contribute to the potential for flooding include recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover, river ice conditions, streamflow, and forecasted precipitation.

NOAA-FUNDED STUDY INDICATES "PREDICTABILITY" OF NORTH ATLANTIC CLIMATE

Scientists funded by the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have taken a small but necessary first step toward demonstrating the feasibility of predicting Eurasian climate conditions a year or more in advance—such as the likely general severity of winters.

Writing in the current issue of the journal Science, Stephen M. Griffies of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, NJ, and Kirk Bryan of Princeton University say that their supercomputer simulations show that with sufficient monitoring of oceanic conditions such as sea surface heights, salinity, and temperatures by satellites and ships, scientists could make accurate long-term predictions of North Atlantic Ocean conditions that, along with the overlying atmosphere, are a major influence on the climate of Europe and western Asia.

Both oceanic and atmospheric conditions affect climate. Although it is not possible to predict weather conditions more than a few days in advance because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, earlier studies had indicated that the oceans react much more slowly to changing influences and thus retain a greater memory of climate trends.

According to Griffies, "Our study does not directly show that the Eurasian climate can be predicted since we only looked at oceanic climate conditions of the North Atlantic, and not the equally important overlying atmospheric climate conditions. But these results provide intriguing possibilities for forecasting the climate of Europe and western Asia, which are the land regions most affected by variability in the North Atlantic, since they suggest that indeed the oceanic climate component could be predicted."

Their supercomputer-derived results point to three physical properties of the North Atlantic Ocean that could be used for Eurasian climate predictions.

First, the upper layers of the North Atlantic are well "stirred" by the atmosphere, retaining a memory of atmospheric conditions over a period of months to years.

Second, variations in the temperature and salinity of North Atlantic seawater produce rhythmic changes in ocean circulation patterns that affect the climate of even broader areas of the Atlantic Ocean over many years.

Third, strong variations in sea surface temperatures in high latitudes near Greenland influence the atmosphere in a "downstream," or eastward, direction.

Because there is only a short historical record of oceanic conditions, Griffies and Bryan used the GFDL coupled ocean–atmosphere numerical model run on the laboratory's supercomputer to simulate a suite of possible climate scenarios in the North Atlantic. To quantify the North Atlantic's predictability, Griffies and Bryan made four separate ensemble runs of the GFDL model, each starting with identical initial oceanic conditions, but with varying atmospheric conditions chosen randomly from many possibilities.

The North Atlantic Ocean observational system required would likely be at least as broad-ranging as NOAA's new El Niño observing network, which includes a string of 80 fixed climate-sensing buoys that span the western Pacific.

Griffies and Bryan say their results should particularly encourage scientists to continue monitoring sea surface heights by both ships and satellites since it is this oceanic feature that appears to provide the clearest signal of climate-inducing changes in the North Atlantic. Their work is part of a larger NOAA-funded effort by government and university scientists, called the North Atlantic Climate Change Program, to assess the role of the Atlantic Ocean in the regional and global climate system and provide the necessary foundations for forecasting climate variability.

FORECASTERS GUIDE PILOTS INTO AND OUT OF ICE

from Zhenya Gallon, UCAR

As investigators seek clues to the 9 January crash of Comair Flight 3272 near Detroit Metropolitan Airport, atmospheric researchers are launching a new experiment to study one possible culprit in the accident: large-droplet icing. In the experiment, which is part of ongoing research funded by the Federal Aviation Administration, scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, CO, are testing innovative forecasting methods to help pilots avoid dangerous in-flight icing conditions. The NCAR team is collaborating with colleagues at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Lewis Research Center in Cleveland, OH, and the National Weather Service's Aviation Weather Center (AWC) in Kansas City, MO.

From 13 January to 20 March, NASA–Lewis is flying a Twin Otter turboprop airplane equipped with measurement probes straight into treacherous icing zones identified by the NCAR team. NCAR scientists Ben Bernstein, Frank McDonough, and Marcia Politovich want to know whether their methods for forecasting these danger zones match up with the actual conditions pilots encounter in flight. NASA wants flight information to compare real-world ice shapes with those occurring in their experimental wind tunnel in Cleveland. "What's new and unique about this experiment is that it's specifically designed for large-droplet icing," says Politovich.

How does large-droplet icing bring down a plane? The crash in 1994 of American Eagle Flight 4184 near Roselawn, IN, drew attention to the problem of large-droplet in-flight icing, especially for smaller aircraft. Large aircraft usually climb above dangerous conditions quickly. Smaller planes, which typically fly at lower altitudes, are at greater risk. Researchers studying the atmospheric conditions at Roselawn determined that relatively warm temperatures at cloud top (-5°C) may have combined with certain wind conditions to produce large drizzle drops of supercooled water (water that is still liquid even though its temperature is below 0°C). Supercooled droplets usually freeze when they hit the front of an airplane wing, and deicing devices on the wing are designed to remove them. However, some large droplets can flow back over the wing before freezing, or hit the wing behind the deicing equipment, creating crusty ridges of ice that can disrupt airflow and destabilize some aircraft.

For the experiment, the NCAR icing forecast team uses weather observations and output from numerical weather forecast models, combined with radar and satellite data, to target large-droplet icing conditions. The Twin Otter then heads into that area, taking precise measurements of the atmospheric conditions and the plane's response, as well as photographs and video images of any ice that forms. Since even experienced research pilots need direction out of dangerous situations, the NCAR forecasts include escape routes.

Bernstein and McDonough are also launching weather balloons in the Cleveland area from NCAR's instrumented weather van. The balloons carry sensing packages designed and built by Atek, Inc., of Boulder. The Atek sensors convey cloud structure data by measuring supercooled liquid as the balloons ascend through clouds.

Last year, at the request of the FAA, Bernstein created an algorithm, or mathematical problem-solving procedure, to automate freezing-drizzle advisories for areas smaller than those covered in general icing advisories. Due in large part to cooperative research by the AWC and NCAR, the areas of the advisories have become more specific over the past few years.

The research flights provide a good test of the new algorithm, which Bernstein calls the "stovepipe" because it uses data from observations on the ground to characterize what's happening in a stovepipe-shaped column of air at higher elevations. The experiment is also testing a new algorithm, developed by J. Vivekanandan of NCAR, that detects supercooled water droplets in cloud tops by examining infrared and visible-light readings from the GOES-8 satellite.

NASA–Lewis scientists will use flight data to improve icing simulation tools such as their icing research tunnel and their computer code for ice accretion, LEWICE. Working with AWC forecasters, the NCAR team will use the experiment's results to streamline pilot weather advisories issued at Kansas City.

Another step will be instructional materials for operational forecasters and pilots. Training modules, which include interactive CD-ROMs and Internet access, are being developed by the Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET), a program of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. The modules will reach forecasters and pilots by mid-1998.

NCAR's icing research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation through an interagency agreement in response to requirements and funding by the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Weather Research Program.

FROM COAST TO COAST, FASTEX IS PROBING WINTER STORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC

from Bob Henson, UCAR

Powerful winter storms that strike the U.S. west coast often occur in series, like the ones that recently raked Washington, Oregon, and California. These storms have their counterparts in the North Atlantic, and scientists are hot on their trail. A major field program involving 11 countries is straddling the Atlantic from Newfoundland to Ireland to study fierce winter storms that move eastward across the ocean and pound western Europe.

The project is called the Fronts and Atlantic Storm Track Experiment (FASTEX). Operations began on 6 January and will continue through February. The findings should lead to better forecasts for the west coasts of both Europe and North America, as well as a better understanding of how oceanic winter storms affect world climate.

Scientists from the United States, Canada, Iceland, Ireland, the United Kingdom (U.K.), Denmark, Norway, France, Portugal, Spain, and the Ukraine are involved in FASTEX. The key U.S. scientific participants include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Navy, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and university researchers supported by the National Science Foundation. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), which operates NCAR under the sponsorship of NSF, is providing logistical support.

Forecasting the development of oceanic storms is still a challenge, largely because there are fewer weather observations at sea than over land. Cyclones (low pressure centers) that rake Europe tend to develop along slow-moving cold fronts that extend across the Atlantic. The cyclones often develop midway between North America and Europe, and reach their peak strength a day or two later near the British Isles.

Even if a cold front is well forecast, the smaller cyclones that focus wind and rain along it are harder to predict. The researchers of FASTEX are hoping to identify precursors that may trigger cyclones once the precursors overtake the cold front. These precursors could include jet streaks (regions of higher wind speed inside the jet stream) and pockets of air that descend from the stratosphere. If such precursors can be located as they reach the North Atlantic, the cyclones they later generate might be better forecast up to 2 or 3 days in advance.

To follow the life cycles of precursors and cyclones, a wide array of observational tools stretches from continent to continent and extends from the midlatitudes to polar regions.

• Three turboprop aircraft are probing cyclones as they develop: the NSF/NCAR Electra, the NOAA P-3, and the U.K. C-130. Both the NSF/NCAR and NOAA planes feature onboard Doppler radar that can trace wind and precipitation patterns inside the storms.
• Farther west, two high-altitude jets—the NOAA Gulfstream IV and a Lear 36 leased for the experiment—are searching for precursors as high as 13 km (8 miles) above the western Atlantic. The long-range Gulfstream can fly from coast to coast to follow an intense cyclone. The two jets are deploying instruments to sample the atmosphere over the ocean.
• Four ships (French, Icelandic, Ukranian, and U.S.) are stationed near longitude 35°W to make measurements of heat and moisture exchange between the ocean and air, as well as to launch balloon-borne radiosondes.
• Many other observing systems, such as balloon-borne radiosondes launched from land, drifting ocean buoys, and wind profilers, are contributing.

The decision-making process for instrument placement in FASTEX may lead to a model for everyday weather monitoring in the future. Computer models of the atmosphere (the main source of forecasting guidance) require a detailed picture of current weather in order to extend that picture into the future. Where data are limited—such as over the oceans—it may be worthwhile to focus data collection on a small area where storms are developing, rather than on a bigger area where relatively little is happening. Two major goals of FASTEX are to develop better techniques for targeting these sensitive regions and to measure how much the targeting will improve computerized forecasts. The prime spots for enhanced observation include developing cyclones and their precursors farther upstream.

The airborne Doppler radars aboard the NSF/NCAR and NOAA turboprop aircraft are being used to analyze mature cyclones at altitudes near or below 10,000 feet (3 km). One of the flight plans, called a "lawnmower" pattern, crisscrosses a cyclone to analyze the frontal rainbands that produce much of a cyclone's heavy precipitation. The rapid-scanning abilities of the NCAR/NSF Electra Doppler radar are helping to document the turbulent ascent and descent of air in shallow rain showers behind a cyclone's cold front.

Although the geography of the Pacific Ocean differs from that of the Atlantic, some insights from FASTEX will be applicable to both. For instance, precursors exiting Asia are likely responsible for some cyclones that reach the U.S. west coast several days later. Techniques developed in FASTEX for identifying precursors and targeting observations could help to improve forecasts for both North America and Europe. A follow-up field experiment is being considered for the North Pacific.

The main operations center for FASTEX is located at a newly constructed extension of the Shannon, Ireland, airport, where three of the five aircraft are based. The Lear jet will fly from an auxiliary control center at St. Johns, Newfoundland, and the U.K. C-130 from Brize Norton and Lyneham, both in England. The control center is being managed by French, British, and U.S. support staff, with logistics help from UCAR's Joint Office for Science Support (JOSS) and NCAR's Atmospheric Technology Division. Forecasters from France, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Canada are directing the experiment and providing computer-model guidance. A variety of specially generated weather products from the United States and elsewhere are being provided via five high-speed data lines.

NOAA/NCAR SCIENTISTS TO MONITOR TURBULENCE IN COLORADO SPRINGS

Weather researchers in Boulder, CO, will be monitoring and analyzing air turbulence near Colorado Springs to learn more about the phenomenon in mountainous areas and how to develop better turbulence detection and warning systems to aid in aircraft safety. The field study began 1 February and will continue through the end of March.

The Federal Aviation Administration asked the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Center for Atmospheric Research to do the study in response to the more than 10 major aircraft accidents and incidents that have occurred in mountainous areas during the past 10 years, especially the crash of a United 737 flight in Colorado Springs in March 1991 in which all aboard were killed.

Although turbulence has not been identified as the cause of the Colorado Springs crash, FAA authorities have asked that researchers from NOAA's Environmental Technology Laboratory (ETL) and Forecast Systems Laboratory, and NCAR's Research Applications Program, all located in Boulder, study the phenomenon. The FAA is funding this field study as part of an effort to reduce mountain flying risks.

The scientists will be using a variety of instruments to measure winds and terrain-induced turbulence in the Colorado Springs area. An ETL Doppler lidar will provide radial wind speeds to distances of over 12 miles. Due to its narrow, pencil-like beam, the lidar is able to scan in the vicinity of mountains without ground clutter problems. It can also scan along approach paths with minimum effects from aircraft.

"The unique remote sensing capabilities of the lidar allow us to measure the wind in clear air very close to mountains and enables us to analyze the complex, three-dimensional winds near Colorado Springs," said ETL meteorologist Bob Banta.

Also, four wind profilers (Doppler radars that are pointed vertically) will be placed in the Colorado Springs area to continuously measure winds and temperatures above the ground under most weather conditions.

According to meteorologist Marty Ralph of ETL, "This continuous record of winds, temperatures, and turbulence above the airport and at other sites will help reveal both the conditions that lead to turbulence and the turbulence itself."

Automated weather stations will look at the surface airflow and will assist researchers in determining under what conditions surface information can be used to infer the existence of hazardous conditions. These systems represent the basic measurement core of the experiment.

In addition, a new infrasonic observing system, previously used to detect tornadoes, will be used to listen to low-frequency sounds that may be associated with severe wind events. ETL vans using new static pressure probes will make observations throughout the areas scanned by the Doppler radar. Under the direction of NCAR scientists, the University of Wisconsin's Kingair, based in Laramie, WY, will be making explicit turbulence measurements along the approach and departure corridors of Colorado Springs, as well as mapping the distribution of turbulence in the terminal area.

The Forecast Systems Laboratory will be providing weather forecasting support for the field experiment and will provide daily weather briefings at its forecast center in Boulder. Three types of forecasts will be provided: a long-range outlook for 24–48 hours for planning purposes, a daily 24-hour forecast, and shorter-term forecast updates as requested by project personnel. The forecasts will be critical for guiding daily operations and fine-tuning decisions about remote sensing strategies.

"The hope is that we will improve our understanding of the nature and causes of low-level turbulence and will be able to contribute this information to improving mountain flying safety by developing and designing new detection and warning systems," said NOAA researcher Al Bedard.

NEW NOAA SHIP TO BE HOME PORTED IN CHARLESTON

The newest addition to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's fleet of scientific research ships will be home ported in Charleston, SC, when the ship begins operations in early August, the Commerce Department agency announced today.

The Ronald H. Brown, the first ship built for NOAA in more than 16 years, will have the ability to conduct both oceanographic and lower atmospheric research, which are critical to the agency's mission to describe and predict changes in the earth's environment.

"NOAA ships are highly specialized platforms that have the unique capabilities and equipment needed by scientists to conduct environmental research," said Dr. D. James Baker, Commerce under secretary for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "We owe a great deal of thanks to Senator Hollings and his congressional colleagues, without whose support the ship might not have been constructed. The senator is a very strong supporter of NOAA's mission and its fleet."

The Ronald H. Brown was named in honor of the late Commerce secretary after his tragic death last year. Senator Fritz Hollings sponsored the vessel and his name, along with Senator Trent Lott's and Secretary Brown's, was engraved on the keel during the keel-laying ceremony in February 1995.

The Brown is being built by Halter Marine Inc. of Gulfport, MS. The ship was launched in May 1996 after being christened by Secretary Brown's widow. Prior to commissioning, the ship will be outfitted with additional scientific equipment taken from the recently retired ship Malcolm Baldrige.

The Brown will be commissioned in Charleston in early August this year, then deployed to begin its global mission. The ship will be commanded by officers of the NOAA Corps, the nation's seventh commissioned service. All NOAA Corps officers hold science or engineering degrees, and are highly skilled at operating and managing the ships as well as supporting the scientific research being conducted.

SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS OFFERED BY CDIAC

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), in cooperation with the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), has published "Daily Snow Depth Measurements from 195 Stations in the United States." This numeric data package (NDP) was contributed by NCDC's David Easterling, Paul Jamason, David Bowman, Pamela Hughes, and Elaine Mason and was prepared by CDIAC's Linda Allison. NDP-059 includes data on snow depth from 48 states, with some records extending as far back as 1893. The NDP includes data files, FORTRAN and SAS data retrieval routine files, and detailed documentation, including a reprint of a related journal article on the association between snow depth and temperature. These data contribute to the analysis of changes in snowfall and in the depth, extent, and duration of snow cover as a possible indicator of changing climate. These data and descriptive files are available via the Internet from CDIAC's anonymous FTP area (cdiac.esd.ornl.gov) and World Wide Web site (http:/cdiac.esd.ornl.gov), and on magnetic tape.

SATELLITES AND SPACE

NASA SENSORS PROVIDE SAFE PLATFORM FOR VOLCANO STUDIES

NASA scientists are developing and using a variety of airborne and spaceborne remote sensing tools to study potentially dangerous volcanoes that could one day threaten populated areas in the United States and around the world.

A number of domestic volcanoes are being studied, including Mount St. Helens and Mount Rainier in Washington; Mount Shasta and Lassen Peak in California; and Kilauea and Mauna Loa in Hawaii. Using information collected with the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR), the Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR), the Airborne Emission Spectrometer (AES), the Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS), the airborne Laser Altimeter Facility, and the Shuttle Laser Altimeter, the scientists have created computer visualization products such as three-dimensional "flyover" video animation clips that help them study how the volcanoes are changing.

"Imaging radar is a particularly useful tool for studying volcanoes because the radar is able to see through the weather and volcanic clouds. It's a good tool for mapping new volcanic deposits because of the radar's sensitivity to texture such as ash and different types of lava flows," said Dr. Jeffrey J. Plaut, SIR-C experiment scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, CA. "We are using radar data to study the dormant lava domes in Long Valley, CA, so we can understand how lava is placed during eruptions. Understanding the eruptive process helps us know where lava will flow, and that has bearing on the hazards that are posed to the nearby communities, including the Mammoth Mountain ski areas."

"By combining the radar data with information from scanning laser altimeters, we are now tracking changes at the summits of Mount St. Helens and Mount Rainier that will document the impact of erosion, climate, and other factors on the topography and stability of large volcanoes," said Dr. James B. Garvin, chief scientist for the Shuttle Laser Altimeter at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD. "These laser altimeters also have successfully measured the flank topography of volcanoes beneath their tree canopies. This is important because many of the most dangerous volcanoes are heavily vegetated, and the subtleties of their local relief must be known to accurately predict the path of their flows."

In recent months, AIRSAR, AES, and TIMS were part of a cadre of scientific instruments onboard a NASA DC-8 aircraft that captured images of the Manam volcano within hours of an eruption on an island off the north coast of Papua, New Guinea. "The airborne instrument helps us map the topography from a safe distance. The data over Manam were collected as a 'target of opportunity,' and the topographic dataset will serve as a valuable baseline for studies about future changes to the volcano," said Ellen O'Leary, the AIRSAR science coordinator at JPL.

"We use the thermal infrared data to study volcanoes in three ways. The first is to map ground temperatures, which we can relate to geothermal phenomena. The second is to map variations in the composition of lava flows, and the third is to map the sulfur dioxide in volcanic plumes," said Dr. Vincent J. Realmuto, TIMS experiment scientist at JPL. "TIMS data are useful for studying volcanoes because thermal infrared remote sensing is the only practical means of obtaining virtually instantaneous maps of dynamic phenomena such as the distribution of temperatures on the ground or sulfur dioxide in a plume. Such data are of great use in monitoring volcanoes, where changes in ground temperatures or sulfur dioxide emission can signal impending activity."

JPL's Digital Image Animation Laboratory (DIAL) turns the scientific data into three-dimensional video animations and other images. "These visualizations can range from the simple, such as the use of color to combine datasets, to the complex, such as simulated flights through the data. The basic objectives of data visualization are to give scientists new perspectives into complex datasets and to permit them to communicate their findings in a format that is both compelling and accessible," Realmuto said.

The DIAL is best known for visualizations of planetary datasets of Venus and Mars, but visualizations have been produced for a variety of volcanoes, such as Mount Rainier; the Long Valley caldera in the Mammoth Mountains of California; Mauna Loa, Mount Pinatubo, and Taal in the Philippines; Mount Etna near Sicily; and the trans-Mexican volcanic belt. The most recent addition to this series is a simulated flight over Mount St. Helens that was created by combining TIMS data with a high-resolution digital elevation map.

AIRSAR is the airborne cousin of SIR-C/X-SAR, which flew twice on the space shuttle Endeavour in 1994. AIRSAR also uses three radar wavelengths, L band (24 cm), C band (6 cm), and P band (68 cm), and can collect data in both vertical and horizontal polarization. AIRSAR also can be used to collect three-dimensional topographic data in its TOPSAR mode to create digital elevation models.

TIMS collects image data in the thermal infrared portion of the spectrum. TIMS operates at six channels between 8 and 12 micrometers. For comparison, visible light extends from 0.4 to 0.7 micrometers. TIMS is a precursor to the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) that is scheduled to fly on the first Earth Observing System satellite (EOS AM-1) in 1998.

AES is a spectrometer that operates between 2.3 and 15.4 micrometers and is a precursor to the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). TES is scheduled for launch aboard the EOS CHEM-1 platform in 2002.

The GSFC Laser Altimeter Facility sensors are routinely flown aboard NASA Wallops Flight Facility aircraft such as the P-3 and T-39. The Shuttle Laser Altimeter (SLA) experiment flew on STS-72, and a second flight of SLA is scheduled for July 1997 as part of STS-85.

JPL manages the SIR-C/X-SAR, AIRSAR, and AES missions for NASA's Office of Mission to Planet Earth in Washington DC. TIMS and the DC-8 aircraft are maintained and operated by NASA's Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA. All of these instruments are part of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth, a coordinated research enterprise designed to study the earth as a total system.

JANUARY SOLAR STORM IS ONE OF BEST DOCUMENTED EVER

Thanks to observations from a new fleet of satellites that have been launched in recent years, the solar storm that swept around earth beginning 10 January is one of the best documented ever, according to astronomers.

Instruments designed and built at Los Alamos National Laboratory played a major role in helping chart the path of the storm, they reported.

On 6 January, a satellite called SOHO took a picture of the sun that showed the edge of a huge eruption. Four days later, the disturbance was recorded as it sped by another satellite, called WIND, that is designed to monitor the solar wind upstream from Earth. Within hours, a satellite called POLAR and several Los Alamos instruments positioned in high orbits recorded the effects on energetic particles in Earth's radiation belts. The intensity of the radiation belts increased more than 100 times over their previous levels on 10 January and continued to increase over the next several days.

"We compiled the most complete data available on conditions in the magnetosphere during the event," according to Geoff Reeves, project leader for POLAR's energetic particle instrument at Los Alamos. "Combined with information from the other satellites, now we can better understand why and how these solar events sometimes produce big effects."

On 11 January, AT&T's Telestar 401 satellite, launched in 1993, suddenly stopped sending signals to Earth. The satellite broadcast television shows from national networks to local affiliates nationwide. Although the exact cause of the failure has not been determined, intense radiation produced by the solar storm is considered a probable cause.

Images compiled at Los Alamos from the POLAR data collected at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center show the space storm as it intensifies around the Earth. Recent images may be found on the World Wide Web at http://WWW-istp.GSFC.NASA.gov/istp/cloud_jan97/event.html

The Los Alamos Laboratory is operated by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

GOES-K MOVES TO KSC IN PREPARATION FOR APRIL LAUNCH

NOAA's GOES-K weather satellite has arrived at the Kennedy Space Center, where it is scheduled to be launched aboard an Atlas 1 rocket in late April. GOES-K is the third spacecraft to be launched in a new advanced series of geostationary weather satellites for NOAA. The spacecraft is a three-axis, internally stabilized satellite that has the dual capability of providing pictures while performing atmospheric sounding at the same time. Once in orbit, the spacecraft will be designated GOES-10. Currently, the launch is scheduled for 24 April. An 83-minute launch window will open at 1:56 A.M. EDT.

NASA SOLICITS NEW EARTH-IMAGING RADAR SATELLITE

NASA is seeking proposals from industry for design and definition studies of LightSAR, a proposed new earth-imaging satellite that would use advanced technologies to reduce the cost and enhance the quality of radar-based information for scientific research, commercial remote sensing, and emergency management applications.

The agency expects to award up to five LightSAR study contracts worth approximately $700,000 each, with selection scheduled for March 1997 and final reports due in November 1997.

"Our request for proposals is aimed at exploring innovative approaches to government and industry teaming," said Dr. Steven Bard, LightSAR preproject manager a NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, CA. "The results of these studies are expected to enable industry to maximize the private sector investment in LightSAR. The proposers are required to share in the cost of implementing this mission, beginning with these studies."

"The results of these studies, especially as related to indications of proposed teaming and cost-sharing arrangements for the follow-on phases, will help establish an appropriate implementation approach, should NASA decide to proceed further with a LightSAR mission," said William Townsend, acting associate administrator for NASA's Mission to Planet Earth.

LightSAR's synthetic aperture radar measurements would provide high-resolution images on a nearly continuous basis, giving the project considerable capability to map changes in land cover, generate topographic maps, and provide long-term mapping of natural hazards, officials explained.

ENVIRONMENT AND GLOBAL CHANGE

AS GLOBAL CLIMATE WARMS, MORE FLOODS ARE EXPECTED

As the global climate continues to warm, extreme flooding like that recently experienced in the western United States is expected to become more frequent, reports a senior scientist with the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Although it is impossible to link any particular weather or climate event to global warming, and present-day climate models are not sophisticated enough to accurately pinpoint regions of the globe where changes will be the largest, extreme flooding is expected to become more frequent across the United States due to an increase in precipitation extremes, said Thomas Karl, senior scientist at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC.

Observations since the beginning of the twentieth century for the United States indicate that intense precipitation events have already increased by about 20%, and cold season precipitation has increased by nearly 10%, Karl said. An increase in the intensity of precipitation has led to an increased flood potential.

Why does this happen? Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere lead to an increase in mean global temperatures. As the global climate warms, the hydrologic cycle is affected because a portion of the heating will go into evaporating larger quantities of water from the earth's surface. As global temperatures increase, the atmosphere can also support greater amounts of water vapor. In general, an increase in the proportion of extreme and heavy precipitation events would occur where there is enough atmospheric instability to trigger precipitation events. This means more flooding with an increase in extreme precipitation events, but also more droughts. Droughts arise where and when the atmosphere is not favorable to precipitation, and the evaporated moisture is transported to other regions. The additional evaporation from the surface leads to a drying of the soil, and more severe and widespread droughts.

Comparisons of climatologies, from climate models run with present-day and doubled carbon dioxide concentrations, reveal some dramatic changes in the hydrologic cycle as the global climate warms, Karl said. When carbon dioxide concentrations are doubled, the expected frequency and areal extent of extreme droughts and intense precipitation increase in the United States (more than two inches per day) and Canada (more than one inch per day), with some models showing a three- to four-fold increase. There is also a distinct increase in wintertime or cold season precipitation.

Recent events, like the flooding in the northeast last autumn and the flooding this winter, offer examples of the kind of situations that are expected to be associated with an increased risk of occurrence, Karl said.

AMS ANNUAL MEETING

MEMBERSHIP SURVEY REVEALS FEW SURPRISES BUT MUCH PROMISE

The AMS membership Outreach Survey revealed few surprises but much promise for future planning and activities of the Society, outgoing President Paul D. Try told Society members on 2 February during the 77th Annual Meeting in Long Beach, CA.

In the presentation, Try covered responses from members over a wide range of topics, including publications, journals, conferences, meetings, and demographics.

Try said he was pleased with the 30% rate of return on the survey. In all, 11,000 questionnaires were distributed and approximately 3,500 were returned.

The purpose of the survey, Try said, was to "pulse the diverse Society membership to determine needs and expectations and to provide guidance in structuring changes for the future."

The survey showed that members appear to be well satisfied with the Society's publications and its technical journals and believe the greatest area for improvement lies in representing the atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic sciences to the public and other organizations.

Members thought the most important activities by the Society were publishing the Bulletin, sponsoring conferences and meetings, publishing technical journals, representing the atmospheric and related sciences to the public, and producing career guidance materials, in that order. The activities that scored highest as activities that have an impact on members were publishing the Bulletin (58%), publishing technical journals (44%), sponsoring conferences and meetings (42%), publishing preprint volumes (14%), and publishing employment announcements (13%).

Scoring highest as activities that need improvement were representing atmospheric and related sciences to the public (18%), administering a home page on the World Wide Web (13%), providing career guidance materials (13%), affiliating with local chapters of the Society (12%), and administering short courses, workshops, and continuing education programs (11%).

Receiving the Bulletin was the top reason for membership in AMS, which drew a response of 74%. Other reasons included to support AMS (63%), that membership reflects positively for professional advancement (63%), to support Society activities toward advancing interests in science (58%), and to attend conferences (43%).

The five most important sections of the Bulletin, chosen by "very important" and "important" replies, showed articles (85%), calendar of meetings and meeting announcements (74%), conference programs (60%), letters to the editor (58%), and book reviews (55%). Try said the book review response was a little surprising in his opinion.

The survey revealed that 53.6% of the members enjoy Bulletin articles over the calendar of events and conference programs the most, and agreed that the scope of interest was "about right" (63.8%) and that the mixture of articles is "about right" (72.1%).

The greatest number of members are in the 35–44 age group, which represented 28% of the members responding. Second were those aged 45–54, accounting for 23.4% of those responding.

The survey showed that 78.2% had been AMS members from 3 to 4 years, the largest percentage in the group. By educational levels, 34.1% of the membership returning questionnaires had master's degrees, 32.8% had Ph.D.s, and 27.7% had bachelor's degrees.

By discipline categories, 85.8% were meteorologists, 5% oceanographers, and 1.6% hydrologists.

Try closed the presentation by emphasizing the survey will be of great advantage to the Society as it moves ahead .

BAKER REPORTS ON NWS FUTURE PLANS

During a special NOAA Town Meeting at the AMS Annual Meeting, James Baker, administrator of NOAA, addressed fears of cutbacks in National Weather Service modernization, privatization of service, budget reduction, and personnel uncertainties. This was in addition to the originally established purpose of updating the agency's plans for the future.

Before what was probably the largest town meeting audience at the 77th AMS Annual Meeting, Baker outlined details of NOAA's strategic plan, underlining the agency's primary missions of environmental assessment and prediction and environmental stewardship. He then listed a number of steps NOAA is taking in moving toward that goal. He cited several examples of improved service, such as greater public warning times for tornadoes and hurricanes, which he described as the "first manifestation of modernization." In explaining the plan, Baker emphasized that, "we all have a vision, and we need to communicate that vision."

Essentially, the audience's questions revolved around the concern about proposed reductions in NWS services and what Baker was doing in the face of that challenge.

On privatization, Baker explained that the move in that direction started in the 1980s, with the federal government being given the responsibility for the infrastructure and the private sector given the role for "tailored" forecasts. "Up to now," he said, "I think it's been a good division."

When he was asked about declining morale in the NWS due to uncertainties within that service, he pointed out that any action he takes must be taken in the "streamline" mode, with the limitations of a balanced budget in mind. "There are some things we can't do," he explained, "because we have to be responsible to the balanced budget."

NSF CONDUCTS TOWN MEETING

Everything from budget to grant review procedures marked the discussion during the National Science Foundation (NSF) Town Meeting held Monday, 3 February, at the AMS Annual Meeting in Long Beach, CA.

Robert Corell, assistant director of Geosciences and member of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, directed the meeting with panelists Richard Greenfield, director of the Division of Atmospheric Sciences for the National Science Foundation; Bill Bishop, member of the Advisory Committee for Geosciences; Doug James, program director for Hydrology, Division of Earth Sciences; Warren Washington, member of the National Science Board; and Vanessa Richardson, director of Operations and Analysis for the Geosciences Directorate.

Corell led of the meeting with a discussion of Geoscience Directorate responsibilities and challenges and NSF themes, then entered into a discussion of education, pointing out that NSF had established a Geo Education Working Group to implement greater activity in the educational arena.

A question from the audience raised the question of the grant review process. Corell pointed out that a Task Force on Merit Review had been established and that reviews are monitored carefully. He explained that NSF receives 30,000 proposals a year requiring 170,000 reviews.

On budget matters, Corell said NSF had a congressionally approved FY97 budget of $3.3 million, $1.5 million less than in FY96.

NEWS FROM EUROPE

contributed by Alan Weinstein

NATO ESTABLISHES NEW RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD

NATO established a new Research and Technology Board on 21 November. During the board's inaugural meeting, it selected it's first chairman, the U.S.'s Dr. Michael Yarymovych (vice president and associate director of Rockwell Systems Development Center), and director, the Netherlands' Dr. Ernst Van Hoek (director of R&D, Netherlands Ministry of Defense). The board is chartered as the single integrating body for all NATO defense R&T.

The board assumes responsibilities of the previous Defense Research Group (DRG) and the Advisory Group for Aerospace Research and Development (AGARD). It reports to the Conference of National Armaments Directors (CNAD) and to the Military Committee.

This event marks the first major change in NATO's R&T structure in over three decades. NATO point of contact for this board is Dr. K. Gardner, head of the Defense Research Section, Defense Support Division. The full press release can be found at http://www.nato.int/docu/pr/1996/p96-167e.htm

PEOPLE IN THE NEWS

UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA METEOROLOGIST JAMES F. KIMPEL NAMED NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LAB DIRECTOR

James F. Kimpel, professor of meteorology and administrator at theUniversity of Oklahoma, has been named as new director of the National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration's National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, OK.

The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) works closely with NOAA's National Weather Service and the university meteorological community. NSSL conducts research to improve forecasts and warnings of tornadoes and other severe weather, and was recently depicted in the movie Twister.

Kimpel received his Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin in 1973. He has served in a series of academic administrative positions at the University of Oklahoma, including professor and director of the School of Meteorology, senior vice president and provost of the Norman campus, dean of the College of Geoscience, and as director of the Weather Center Program, an alliance of federal, state, and private weather organizations.

He relieves acting director Douglas E. Forsythe and former director Robert A. Maddox, who retired on 30 September 1996.

ELLIOT ABRAMS NAMED "RADIO–TV BROADCASTER OF THE YEAR"

Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather senior vice president and chief forecaster, has been named "Radio–TV Broadcaster of the Year" by the National Weather Association. The honor marks the third major award from a top meteorological organization for Abrams. Previously, he had been honored with the 1993 American Meteorological Society's Award for Outstanding Service by a Broadcast Meteorologist for his "decades of significant contributions to radio weather broadcasting and to weather education at all levels" and the 1994 Charles L. Mitchell Award for "long-term service by persons engaged in weather forecasting activities."

JIM HANSEN RECEIVES NORDBERG AWARD

Dr. James E. Hansen, Chief of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, has received the William Nordberg Memorial Award for his earth science research. Hansen was recognized for his pioneering efforts in research about global warming and the "greenhouse" effect of trace gases in the atmosphere. In the last 15 years, Hansen has worked on studies and computer simulations of the earth's climate for purposes of understanding humans' potential impact on global climate.

The Nordberg Award, named for the former director of space applications at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center and a pioneer in using remote sensing to investigate the earth and its environment, is given annually to the Goddard employee who best exhibits qualities of broad scientific perspective, enthusiastic programmatic and technical leadership on the national and international levels, wide recognition by peers, and substantial research accomplishments in understanding earth system processes. The award was presented at the annual William Nordberg Lecture at which the Nordberg speaker was Professor Mario J. Molina of MIT, who shared the 1995 Nobel Prize in chemistry.

EUROPEAN GEOPHYSICAL SOCIETY (EGS) MEDALS TO SCHOTT AND HOSKINS

At its meeting of 4–5 October 1996, the Council of the EGS decided to bestow the following medals to distinguished scientists who may be familiar to Newsletter readers.

The Fridtjof Nansen Medal for distinguished research in Oceanography went toFriedrich Schott of the Institute for Oceanography, Kiel, Germany (ex Rosensteil School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami).

The Vilhelm Bjerknes Medal for distinguished research in Atmospheric Sciences went to Brian Hoskins of the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading.

Medals will be presented during the EGS's 22d General Assembly in Vienna on Monday, 21 April 1997.

© 1997 American Meteorological Society