Editor: Jim Elliott
Contributor: Stephanie Kenitzer
Copy Editor: Marcie Weber
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
More than 90 representatives from the energy producer, distributor, trader, and user communities; public and private providers of weather and climate information and services; and government energy policy makers, spent 2 days last month discussing how weather and climate information can be used to effectively match energy supply and demand while reducing costs and increasing reliability. The discussions were part of a special forum on “Weather, Climate and Energy” organized by the American Meteorological Society’s Atmospheric Policy Program, in collaboration with the University of Oklahoma. “The workshop was an important step in an effort to develop an ongoing dialogue between the energy sector and the weather and climate information providers for the benefit of the nation,” said Richard Greenfield, Senior Policy Fellow with the AMS Atmospheric Policy Program. Today, the production and use of weather and climate information in the public and private sectors has become an integral aspect of national energy policy. That information has become a vital asset as national energy policy becomes even more critical in the face of a continuing decline in the state of the economy. The Forum was built around four panels, covering the changing nature of the energy industry, advances in weather/climate science and services, risk management, and implications for policy. These panels were composed of public- and private-sector experts in the panels’ subjects who prepared position papers to guide discussion. The panel discussions addressed the following questions:
Energy experts from Enron, Williams, and other companies pointed out that the nature and extent of energy constraints has been changing rapidly. Such change will continue, as the energy industry responds to deregulation, changes in patterns of global supply and demand, constraints imposed by consumer preferences and environmental considerations. Changes include a general increase in price volatility and sensitivity to external factors such as weather. The industry is responding in many ways, including the development of new tools to manage risk. The AMS is currently preparing a report that will enumerate the forum’s findings and recommendations that were formulated in the course of the discussions. The forum was sponsored by Williams, Enron, the Department of Commerce (NOAA) and the Department of Energy [Biological and Environmental Research (BER)]. The position papers of panel members and other experts will be available shortly at http://www.ametsoc.org/ams/atmospolicy.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
A new AMS statement on “Enhancing Weather Information with Probabilistic Forecasts” has been posted on the AMS Web site for review and public comment. The draft statement has undergone one review by the Council and, pending possible revisions coming from comments by the community, it is expected to be approved at the 13 January meeting of the Council. To view the statement, execute the link on the opening page of the AMS Web site to “AMS Statements that are being considered by the AMS Council”—http://www.ametsoc.org/ams/policy/draftstatements.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
Supreme Court Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist was first introduced to meteorology in the United States Army Air Force in 1943. Although he has not practiced in the field in more than 50 years, he recently entertained more than 100 attendees at the AMS Washington, DC, meeting with his tales of weather observing during World War II.
Rehnquist started his meteorological career, as a young student at Kenyon College in the fall of 1942. College advisors urged students to enlist in some sort of military program that would allow students to continue some sort of college education for a while, said the Chief Justice during the dinner presentation on 23 October. Rehnquist signed up for a premeteorology program—an accelerated course in math and physics—that was given at various small colleges across the country.
He was called up in March 1943, at a time when U.S. troops, which had landed in North Africa in November 1942, were about to drive the German troops out of North Africa not long after U.S. troops landed in North Africa to begin driving out the German army there. After some initial schooling in meteorology, Rehnquist shipped to Will Rogers Field in Oklahoma City, where he received on-the-job training as a weather observer. There he learned to plot synoptic maps from teletype reports, make hourly teletype reports of the weather at our station, and launch weather balloons to plot winds aloft.
Rehnquist’s next duty station was Carlsbad, New Mexico. His most memorable experience there was a mistaken forecast given to the base commander. The commander wanted to fly a small plane from Carlsbad to Kirtland Field in Albuquerque, and stopped in the weather office to get a forecast.
“He was told that though there would be some squall lines in the area, he would be able to fly around them. Unfortunately, the squall lines were far more extensive and intense than we thought, and he was forced to land his plane at a tiny auxiliary airport about 40 miles away from Albuquerque. The weather office at the base was in the doghouse for sometime,” said Rehnquist.
He was sent overseas as a weather observer in the summer of 1945, starting his tour of duty in Egypt, then on to Tripoli and Tunis, ending up in Casablanca in December that year. He returned to New York in mid-1946. Although the Chief Justice and many other weather observers were not recognized with many military honors, the role of the meteorologist was critical during many occasions throughout the war, especially D day, said Rehnquist.
Even Eisenhower noted the importance that weather conditions were critical to the Allies’ success in June of 1944, added Rehnquist, citing the General’s diary entry for 3 June 1944. Eisenhower’s order to land on the beaches of Normandy came after ongoing consultations with the Air Force Chief meteorologist.
Even now, nearly 60 years later, Rehnquist continues to be fascinated by the weather. Experiments with cloud seeding and other advances in the field, added the Chief Justice, ensure that “the weather retains its interest for us all, just because it is often unpredictable in spite of the best efforts of the meteorologists.”
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
The American Meteorological Society and the Weather Research Center need more golfers for the charity golf tournament to benefit The Weather Museum. The Tournament will be held at the Golden Bear Club at Keene’s Point, 6300 Jack Nicklaus Parkway, Windermere, Florida, on Friday 18 January 2001. For more details, contact Jill Hasling at wrc@wxresearch.org.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
Minneapolis-based DTN Weather Services/Kavouras announced that it has changed its name to Meteorlogix. The name change became effective on 23 October.
Meteorlogix was created through the merger of three weather service organizations:
Meteorlogix (http://www.meteorlogix.com) is a portfolio company of VS&A Communications Partners III, LP. Based in Minneapolis, the company delivers industry-specific weather management capabilities for its customers to manage weather-related business risks, maximize personal safety and minimize financial loss. Meteorlogix serves more than 22 000 customers with a focus on public safety, broadcast media, transportation, energy, and aviation industries. Its client roster includes the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Reuters, Bloomberg, Union Pacific Railroad, Tennessee Valley Authority, US Airways, Lycos, and Travelocity.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
Raytheon ITS has been awarded a contract for the development of the plans and specifications for a Geographic Information System (GIS) to be used by the Nigerian government, and to deliver an operational pilot system. The original 11-month phase of this project will require a staff of approximately 27 professionals.
The increasing awareness of the use of geographic information for policy and decision making has motivated the Nigerian government to establish several GIS centers within Nigeria. These centers are to integrate the geographic resource data captured by the GIS’s and socioeconomic data into a national data archive focused on the assessment of environmental issues. The primary area of focus will be forestry, ground water, gully erosion, coastal erosion, radioactive waste, and solid waste. The Nigeria Ministry of Environment has commissioned a Nigerian company, Global Minerals Limited, to carry out this project, called NAGIS (National Geographic Information System). A major component of this project is the establishment of an Integrated Resource Management (IRM) system to help the government of Nigeria identify, archive, manage and disseminate the information.
Raytheon’s role in this project will be to provide the main technology element within the IRM. It will integrate resource and socioeconomic data from a variety of disparate sources into the single National Data Archive. The database will be structured according to sector applications (e.g., environment, agriculture, mining, physical planning, oil production, etc.).
Raytheon developed applications will integrate National Data Archive with high resolution imagery (provided by the government of Nigeria) producing information that will enhance the Nigerian government’s ability to plan and make decisions that effect the nation’s natural resources.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
Rapid Weather, a meteorological training firm, is expanding its Forecaster Training program in 2002. Based in Rapid City, South Dakota the forecaster courses are designed to provide pre-employment training for operational meteorologists.
In addition to the two 6-week training courses, the 2002 schedule will include a comprehensive internship program and special short courses. Internships will be available to individuals who have completed at least the basic training course. The internships will be available on a space-available basis for up to three 6-week terms. Participants will get to experience the feel of a weather office, including shift work and 8- to 10-hour days. This is all preparation for a full-time job in either the private or public sector.
The Forecaster Training program also offers placement services to participants and employers. Employers who wish to take advantage of the program are encouraged to contact Chris Orr, CCM, or Sarah Houglum at Rapid Weather, 605-718-3613, or e-mail, weather@rushmore.com. The Web site for the program is at http://www.rapidwx.com.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, or more briefly known as the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM), is sponsoring a workshop to gather input for developing a strategy for providing atmospheric information. The event is scheduled for 3–5 December 2001, at the Crowne Plaza Washington National Airport Hotel, 1489 Jefferson Davis Highway, Arlington (Crystal City), Virginia.
As the twenty-first century approached, the OFCM began an effort to reach out to the federal meteorological community to identify their priorities for the coming century. When that effort was complete, there was a consensus among the federal agencies that executive-level strategic planning was needed in four major focus areas: environmental services and supporting research; environmental monitoring and prediction; technology innovation; and computing, communications, and information. Subsequently, the National Research Council published “The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century,” which assessed the scientific challenges, opportunities, and imperatives facing atmospheric scientists in the new century and served to reinforce the results of the OFCM outreach effort. Among the report’s leadership and management recommendations was one calling on OFCM to “lead a thorough examination of the issues that arise as the national system for providing atmospheric information becomes more distributed...and....develop a strategic plan.”
Citing two consequences of the current information revolution—the availability of information on global information networks and computer-to-computer communications—the report noted that the U.S. system for providing atmospheric information is undergoing rapid change and highlighted the need for strategic guidance. This workshop will initiate the process of addressing that need.
The workshop will focus on the issue of how the ever-increasing inventory of atmospheric information (observations and products) can be accessed by those who need it by considering how to 1) get the information to where it is needed and 2) insure that users can read and understand the information. Panels on the first day of the workshop will address these issues. Breakout groups will then consider the issue from the perspectives of three application areas—climate, urban meteorology, and technological hazards. Consideration of the crosscutting issues of observation and instrumentation standards, formats, and communications will follow. Finally, a wrap-up session will take reports from the breakout groups and formulate next steps.
A workshop on “Effective Emergency Response: Selecting a Suitable Dispersion Model for a Given Application” will convene following adjournment of a workshop on “Strategy for Providing Atmospheric Information: Planning to Exploit Our National Investment in Weather Technology.” This follow-on workshop will focus on selecting objective criteria to be used in screening dispersion models for application in likely scenarios and address methodologies for collection and display of model information to facilitate decision making.
For details, contact Col. Jud Stailey (judson.stailey@noaa.gov) at OFCM (301-427-2002). You can also obtain additional information at http://www.dc.net/stc/SAI_Workshop/main.htm for the Strategy for Providing Atmospheric Information workshop and at http://www.dc.net/stc/ATDII/main.htm for the Effective Emergency Response workshop.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
Because of current events, none of the 13 regular appropriations bills funding the federal government have been signed by the President (though two “supplemental” appropriations bills have become law), though there is every reason to believe that when they are cleared by Congress they will be accepted by the President and that this process will be complete in the next few weeks.
The federal government’s fiscal year begins 1 October, but because no regular appropriations bills have been signed by the President, the Congress has had to pass three “Continuing Resolutions” (CRs), which allow federal agencies to keep using funds from the U.S. Treasury to pay their bills—at last year’s level of funding. The current CR expires 16 November, so unless all spending bills are passed and signed by the President by then, there will have to be another CR passed by Congress and signed by the President.
Negotiations within Congress, and undoubtedly among Congress and Administration officials, are going on right now with respect to appropriations affecting the military, especially, as well as other federal departments and agencies. Military-related activities will get additional appropriations for national security. Other federal agencies may also get additional appropriations for antiterrorism activities and also because of the weakening economy.
Currently, the only appropriations bill that has gone through Conference and passed by both Houses is the one for military spending. Others are awaiting conference or in a few cases have yet to be passed by either the House or Senate (and which then will be send to conference committees). Expectations, however, are that all 13 of the bills will all be passed and signed by the President in the next 2 to 3 weeks.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
The Senate confirmed John H. Marburger III, of New York, to be Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy on 23 October 2001. On these nominations only the Senate has to confirm to nomination. Marburger will now be organizing his office and begin selecting Associate Directors, who also require Senate confirmation.
The first Associate Director the President intends to nominate is Richard M. Russell. Russell has served as Chief of Staff in the Office of Science and Technology Policy since January. From 1995 to 2001, he served with the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, first as professional staff for the
Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, then Staff Director for the Subcommittee on technology and finally as Deputy Chief of Staff for the Science Committee. Russell was a professional staff member for the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Subcommittee on Oceanography, Gulf of Mexico and Outer Continental Shelf from 1993 to 1994. Russell is a graduate of Yale University.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
On 11 October, the Environment, Technology and Standards Subcommittee of the Science Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives, chaired by Vern Ehlers (R-Michigan), held a hearing on research, prediction and warnings of severe storms. The focus of the hearing was hurricanes, flooding, and wind-related damage, with an emphasis on required research. The hearing also addressed the needs of emergency managers and members of the media to adequately warn the public about storms and their effects.
The witnesses at the hearing were Christopher Landsea, Research Meteorologist with the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML); Leonard Pietrafesa, North Carolina State University; Jack Hayes, Co-chair, U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP); Steven McCabe, Chair of the Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering at the University of Kansas; Doug Hill, Chief Meteorologist of the Washington ABC affiliate, WJLA, Channel 7; and Robert Shea, Acting Administrator for Federal Insurance and Mitigation, at FEMA.
Landsea reported that recent research indicates that the North Atlantic is likely to experience a significant increase in the frequency and possibly the intensity of hurricanes during the next 10–40 years. At the same time, there has been a large increase in the number of people living in hurricane zones—with the attendant economic development—that will likely increase the average damage costs of these storms. According to Landsea, more precise forecasts of intensity and landfall can limit both losses of life and property.
Pietrafesa focused on flood damage and the possibility of developing a risk scale, much like the Saffir–Simpson scale, to measure flood damage. He called for an increase in funding for the USWRP, an improvement in the observation system to help mitigate the effects of severe storms, and the establishment and funding of long-term science programs that translate into effective services.
McCabe testified that the annual damage cost of windstorms is approximately $6 billion. The federal investment in helping to mitigate these effects, including research, is woefully inadequate; an ideal would be something like parity with the federal funds spent on reducing losses from earthquakes.
Hayes outlined additional needs for research on severe storms. While noting that tornado forecasting, for example, has improved dramatically in recent years, he called for improved data processing capacity and better modeling for even more improvements in forecasting. He noted that other technologies and organizations might be “leveraged” to improve the work of the USWRP and that given recent advances, we are on the edge of important opportunities to further limit the damage of severe storms. Diverse research interests should be coordinated, according to Hayes, and then translated into better services.
Hill reported that the means by which the media informs the public of impending severe storms varies in quality around the country. Larger markets, for example, tend to have a larger number of the best-qualified broadcasting meteorologists. Also, given the awareness of tornadoes in the Midwest, for example, individuals are more attuned to the threat and have a greater understanding of what to do. Moreover, when emergency tones are activated by broadcasters, many people simply do not pay attention.
Shea testified that our knowledge in our building practices of how to mitigate the impact of severe storms should be put into practice. He emphasized the need for better flood forecasting and warning systems, and the sharing of data among government agencies.
Chairman Ehlers summed up the proceedings by saying that the U.S. needs better weather research and modeling and that homes and other structures should be designed better and might, as appropriate, include “safe places.” He also said that the NWS does an excellent job overall but should work to improve its accuracy in predicting and following severe storms. FEMA, according to Ehlers, should continue to work to educate the public, especially young people, on natural hazards.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
With resounding bipartisan support, the House Science Committee recently approved H.R. 64, the Strengthening Science at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Act. The bill was approved by voice vote on 3 October.
The legislation, introduced by Environment, Technology, and Standards Subcommittee Chairman Vernon Ehlers (R-Michigan), was based on a June 2000 National Research Council (NRC) report that recommended the creation of new positions at EPA, to ensure that science played an enhanced role in agency decision making.
H.R. 64 would create a Deputy Administrator for Science and Technology at EPA. The new Deputy would be responsible for coordinating the scientific effort among EPA’s numerous offices and ensuring that sound science is the basis for regulatory decisions.
The legislation would set a fixed 5-year term for the EPA Assistant Administrator of the Office of Research and Development (ORD). The 5-year term for the ORD head would provide for more continuity across administrations, enabling the individual to better focus on the science conducted at the agency. In addition, H.R. 64 adds a new title to the ORD head—Chief Scientist.
“This bill would restructure EPA to increase the voice of scientists within the agency. I look forward to working with the Administration to achieve that goal,” said Science Committee Chairman Sherwood Boehlert (R-New York).
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently unveiled two new indices that evaluate the effect of climate conditions on corn and soybean yield and on residential energy needs. The development of the indices is part of NOAA’s “Environomics” program, an effort to better understand the impact of weather and climate on socioeconomic sectors of the nation.
The indices were developed by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina.
Anecdotal statements about the weather are often used to explain variations in economic activity, and these statements are often based on perceptions about the weather that may or may not be valid. Through NOAA’s Environomics program, relationships between the nation’s climate and vital economic sectors of the nation are clearly defined using climate indices, which enhance the understanding of how year-to-year variations and trends in weather and climate affect associated sectors.
Thomas Karl, director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, said, “Climate indices developed through the Environomics program provide quantitative information regarding climate’s influence while providing historical perspective on how weather and climate conditions affecting our economy and society today compare with conditions of the past.”
The period of high energy demand and prices of the late 1970s coincided with extremely cold winters that contributed to higher residential energy usage. The Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI), which provides information related to climate sensitive residential energy demand, reflects this increased demand through historically high index values and can be used in part to explain the cause of the historically high energy demand of that time. By providing continuing updates to the index, a clearer understanding of future fluctuations in energy demand will be possible.
The REDTI tracks both unusually hot and unusually cold conditions. It varies from year to year due to variability and trends in temperature, and it responds most strongly to temperature conditions in heavily populated regions. REDTI values range from 0 to 100. Values greater than 90 indicate a much above average temperature-related energy demand and values less than 10 reflect much below average conditions.
The REDTI for the 2001 April–September season was 34, indicative of slightly below average residential energy demand for cooling and heating. Based on the 107-year record, the population-weighted REDTI value of 34 ranks as the 19th lowest value.
The nation’s warm season (April–September) 2001 ranked as the fourth warmest such period since 1895, the first year of complete climate records. The preliminary national average temperature was 67.4ºF (19.7ºC), which was 1.6ºF (0.9ºC) above the long-term mean. Although the area-weighted national temperature gave the season a rank of fourth warmest on record, the persistence of average to cooler than average temperatures in some of the most heavily populated regions of the United States contributed to a REDTI that was below average. Energy usage statistics for 2001 will be available from the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration in 2002.
While the REDTI provides information on the impacts of temperature on energy demand, the Crop Moisture Stress Index (CMSI), was developed to quantify the effect of soil moisture conditions on crop yield. It provides historical perspective on conditions such as moisture stress, that are closely associated with corn and soybean yields and is a source of information for explaining the cause of lower national yields.
The CMSI ranges from zero to 100 and specifically measures the proportion of the nation’s corn or soybeans affected by severe to catastrophic drought or catastrophic wetness. Values near zero indicate that few productive corn or soybean growing areas were affected by severe drought or catastrophic wetness. This index reflects conditions during July and August and is weighted by the mean (1991–2000) annual crop productivity within 344 climate divisions in the contiguous United States. Although a number of factors affect the success of a single crop growing season, drought or excessive wetness during critical phases of crop growth have a significant impact on the nation’s corn and soybean yield.
Although warmer than average temperatures coincided with drought in some parts of the country during the warm season months of 2001, conditions in the heart of the major corn and soybean crop growing regions were generally normal to wetter than normal. The corn CMSI for the 2001 crop growing season was 8, and the soybean CMSI was 7. This means that severe to catastrophic drought or catastrophic wetness affected only 8% and 7% of the nation’s corn and soybeans, respectively. Both index values were below average and reflect favorable soil moisture throughout a large part of the crop growing regions during July and August.
The CMSI for corn exceeded 40 during the drought-plagued growing seasons of 1983 and 1988 and 30 during the catastrophically wet summer of 1993, years in which corn yields were less than 75% of the 2000 yield. The 2001 growing season (May–September) followed several years in which national corn and soybean yields were generally high, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The low values of this year’s corn and soybean CMSI indicate that conditions associated with this index were again favorable for good corn and soybean yields. National crop yields for 2001 will be available from the department of agriculture following the harvest season.
Additional data for the September and April–September season are online at http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2001/sep/sep01.html.
More information about the calculation of NOAA’s Environomics indices and the most recent values are available at http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/climanomics/climanomics.html.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
For most of the United States, winter 2001/02 will feel like a sequel to last year’s cold season, with sharp swings in temperature and precipitation, including heavy lake-effect snows in the Northeast and Midwest, cold air outbreaks in the South, and the potential for nor’easters along the East Coast.
Officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released the nation’s official winter outlook on 18 October, noting that the absence of a strong El Niño or La Niña climate pattern leaves the door open for a highly variable winter, which will impact the winter weather extremes such as cold, snow, rain, and ice that the nation may experience.
Climate factors that influenced last winter will play a similar role this season. They include the Arctic oscillation, which influences the number of cold-air outbreaks in the South and nor’easters on the East Coast, and the Madden–Julian oscillation, which can impact the number of heavy rainstorms in the Pacific Northwest.
Regional Outlooks:
The 2001/02 winter outlook will be updated on 15 November 2001. The winter outlook is available online at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
New data from tree rings from 500 sites around the world is now available online from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. These data are important because they provide climate scientists and resource managers with records of past climatic variability extending back thousands of years.
The data, available from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank at the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology in Boulder, Colorado, were contributed by Fritz Schweingruber and colleagues at the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research (WSL-Birmensdorf). The data include tree ring width and wood density measurements, and site chronologies. The data represent the largest data contribution in the history of the International Tree-Ring Data Bank.
Schweingruber submitted all of his data files to the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology to be made publicly available in preparation for his retirement. The World Data Center for Paleoclimatology is housed at NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center. One of the most significant features of this collection is the contribution it makes to the coverage of tree-ring data in high latitude Northern Hemisphere forests, particularly across Fenno-Scandinavia and Siberia.
Paleoclimatic data are a valuable complement to the much shorter time series derived from instruments and satellites. Paleoclimatic data are used to describe the full range of climate variability, to identify and understand the causes of this climatic variability, to evaluate and improve predictive climate models, and to improve the ability to separate human-induced climate change from natural climate variability. NOAA’s paleoclimatology holdings include data from sources such as tree rings, corals, ice cores, and sediments.
NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center is part of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, the nation’s primary source of space-based meteorological and climate data. NESDIS operates the nation’s environmental satellites, which are used for weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and other environmental applications such as fire detection, ozone monitoring, and sea surface temperature measurements. NESDIS also operates three data centers, which house global data bases in climatology, oceanography, solid earth geophysics, marine geology and geophysics, solar-terrestrial physics and paleoclimatology.
To access the tree-ring data, visit http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/treering-wsl.html.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) reported last month that satellite data show the area of the Antarctic ozone hole peaked at about 10 million square miles (26 million square kilometers), making this year’s ozone hole the same size as North America, and similar in size to those of the past 3 years.
Over the past several years the annual ozone hole over Antarctica has remained roughly the same in both area and minimum total column ozone amount. “This is consistent with human-produced chlorine compounds that destroy ozone reaching their peak concentrations in the atmosphere, leveling off, and now beginning a very slow decline,” said NOAA scientist Samuel Oltmans.
In the near future (barring unusual events such as explosive volcanic eruptions) the severity of the ozone hole will likely remain similar to what has been seen in recent years with year-to-year differences associated with meteorological variability. Over the longer term (30–50 years) the severity of the ozone hole in Antarctica is expected to decrease as chlorine levels in the atmosphere decline.
The total area of the ozone hole is one measure of its severity. The ozone hole area is defined as the size of the region with total ozone below 220 Dobson units. A Dobson unit is a unit of measurement that describes the thickness of the ozone layer in a column directly above the location being measured. Prior to the springtime period in Antarctica, when ozone depletion occurs, the normal ozone reading is around 275 Dobson units.
“Last year the ozone hole was of record size, but it formed very early and then collapsed quickly,” said NASA scientist R.D. McPeters. “This year the hole was about 10% smaller.”
Data from NOAA’s polar-orbiting operational environmental satellites and estimates of the area made by NASA scientists using measurements from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aboard NASA’s Earth Probe (EP) satellite give similar sizes. Each spring when the sun rises over Antarctica, chemical reactions involving chlorine and bromine from man-made CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) and bromine-containing compounds occur in the stratosphere and destroy ozone, causing the “ozone hole.”
Measurements of this year’s ozone hole made at the South Pole and above the Antarctic show that atmospheric ozone depletion reached the low levels typical of the past 10 years.
Using instrumented balloons to make ozone profile measurements at the South Pole, researchers from NOAA reported that the September decline in ozone was similar to recent years with almost all of the ozone in the 9–12-mile- (15–20 kilometer) altitude region destroyed.
“Total column ozone over the South Pole reached a minimum reading of 100 Dobson units on 28 September 2001, compared to a minimum of 98 Dobson units in 2000,” said Bryan Johnson, a scientist with NOAA’s Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. The record low of 88 Dobson units was observed in 1993.
Year-to-year fluctuations in the geographical size of the polar vortex and the size of the region with low temperatures will alter the size of the ozone hole over the next decade during the period that levels of ozone-destroying chemicals in the atmosphere begin a slow decline. The amount of chlorine in the stratosphere from CFCs has reached a maximum due to regulations on emissions as dictated by the Montreal Protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer and subsequent amendments.
NOAA and NASA scientists report that this year’s ozone hole is not cause for alarm, and is within the bounds of what was expected. The thinning of the ozone layer is a matter of concern because the ozone layer protects the earth from the harmful effects of the sun’s ultraviolet radiation, which affects life on earth and contributes to skin cancer and cataracts in humans. Total recovery of the ozone hole back to levels observed before 1980 will take at least 50 years, and expected changes in climate, including a cooler stratosphere, could cause a delay in the recovery of the ozone layer.
NASA and NOAA satellite instruments have been measuring Antarctic ozone levels for more than 20 years. Continued monitoring by satellite instruments over the next 2 months will establish how long-lived the current year’s ozone hole will be, and a summary report will be issued by NOAA in December.
NOAA maintains Web pages with additional information and links on the ozone layer at http://www.ozonelayer.noaa.gov.
NASA maintains Web pages with information on EP-TOMS measurements at http://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov.
See http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20011016ozonelayer.html.
Balloon ozone profiles and an animation of the profiles from the South Pole are available at http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov.
Color images of the ozone hole and stratospheric temperature information as observed by NOAA satellites are available at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/polar/polar.html.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
A new satellite-based method for early detection, monitoring and analysis of drought shows that nearly 20% of the world’s landmass has been stricken by drought over the past 2 years, according to scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Scientists at NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service in Camp Springs, Maryland, used solar radiation detected from an instrument onboard NOAA’s polar orbiting satellites, called the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer. The solar radiation was observed in three wavelengths of the solar spectrum—visible, near infrared, and thermal—to study vegetation health, moisture, and thermal conditions.
NOAA is providing information on drought to customers around the world. Many countries in Africa, Asia, and North America experienced the effects of 2-year droughts.
Long, intensive spring and summer dryness developed in the southern and western United States (and neighboring regions of Canada) during 2000 and 2001 with Texas experiencing severe droughts. Satellite data identified large areas in the Northwest that were vulnerable to intensive fire activity. During the 2-year period, active fires consumed large areas of forested land.
In the Horn of Africa, early drought signs were recorded in January 2000. Over the next four months, the drought expanded and intensified, creating food shortages and outbreak of disease that affected millions of inhabitants in Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya and other regions.
In Asia, crop producing regions and rangelands of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, India, Mongolia, and China were severely hit by spring and summer dryness during 2000 and 2001. The worst situation was observed in Afghanistan and Pakistan where approximately 60% and 40% of these countries, respectively, suffer from intensive drought in 2001. Unusual summer dryness also affected countries in the Caspian Sea region.
The new method of drought detection and monitoring has been recognized by the global scientific and operational community and has been publicized by the American Meteorological Society, UN-based organizations, and international remote sensing publications. NOAA’s data are widely distributed to the United States and global institutions provided through the NOAA Web site: http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/crad/sat/surf/vci.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
Richard H. (Dick) Hagemeyer, Director of the National Weather Service’s Pacific Region, passed away on 25 October at the age of 77. Hagemeyer, an AMS Fellow, was a legend in NOAA and throughout the Pacific Region. He served with NOAA and its predecessor agencies for 51 years.
Hagemeyer’s career started in 1950 as a chartist in Weather Bureau at the Army/Navy Analysis Center at the Weather Bureau headquarters here in Washington, D.C. He served in numerous positions for NOAA. At NOAA Headquarters, he worked his way up from the Staff Assistant to the Director of the
Office of Program Evaluation and Budget to become Deputy Director of that office in November 1976, where he oversaw the agency’s budget execution. He was the Acting Deputy Assistant Administrator for Management from October 1979 to May 1980, where he oversaw the agency’s financial, budget and management activities and was responsible for providing management support to the Office of the Administrator. After his service at NOAA Headquarters, he returned to the National Weather Service in May 1980 as the Executive Officer.
His legacy also includes developing the U.S. Tsunami Program, modernizing weather services in Hawaii and the Pacific Region, and improving coordination of tropical cyclone response in the Pacific Rim.
In lieu of flowers, contributions may be made to the Richard and Helen Hagemeyer Undergraduate Scholarship in Meteorology, c/o The American Meteorological Society, 45 Beacon Street, Boston, MA 02108-3693.
Please visit the NWS Communications Office Web page for personal remembrances of Dick Hagemeyer: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/hagemeyer.htm.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
After nearly 10 years as the head of America’s space program, NASA’s longest-serving Administrator, Daniel S. Goldin, will resign on 17 November.
“For nearly a decade, it has been my honor to serve the American people by leading our Nation’s space program and its dedicated personnel,” Administrator Goldin said in a letter to President George W. Bush. “It was the highlight of my life when your father asked me in 1992 to serve as America’s ninth Administrator for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.”
While no replacement has been selected, Administrator Goldin will work with the Administration before he leaves office to identify an interim Acting Administrator.
Administrator Goldin, 61, was appointed NASA Administrator 1 April 1992, by President George H.W. Bush and became the agency’s longest-serving chief on 5 March 2001, surpassing James Fletcher’s previous record of nearly 9 years during two separate terms.
The Administrator also announced he has accepted an interim position as a Senior Fellow for the Council on Competitiveness in Washington, as he transitions into the private sector. The Council sets an action agenda to drive U.S. economic competitiveness and leadership in world markets to raise the standard of living for all Americans, and focuses on strengthening domestic innovation, upgrading the workforce, and benchmarking national economic performance.
During his tenure, Administrator Goldin initiated a revolution to transform America’s aeronautics and space program. Despite lower budgets, his “faster, better, cheaper” approach enabled NASA to deliver programs of high value without sacrificing safety.
Before coming to NASA, Administrator Goldin was Vice President and General Manager of the TRW Space and Technology Group in Redondo Beach, California. During a 25-year career at TRW, he led projects for America’s defense, and conceptualized and managed production of advanced communication spacecraft, space technologies, and scientific instruments.
Administrator Goldin began his career in 1962 at NASA’s Lewis Research Center in Cleveland, now known as the Glenn Research Center. While there he worked on electric propulsion systems for human interplanetary travel.
Administrator Goldin is a member of the National Academy of Engineers and a Fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
NOAA is currently accepting nominations for the NOAA–David Johnson Award, presented by the National Space Club in honor of the first Administrator of what was to become the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). This award is given to young professionals who have developed an innovative use of Earth observation satellite data (alone, or in combination with nonsatellite data) that is, or could be, used for operational purposes to assess and/or predict atmospheric, oceanic or terrestrial conditions.
The use of satellite data should have a practical, ongoing purpose that could be used to assess. And or predict environmental conditions, on a regular, operational basis. Examples include, but are certainly not limited to, the use of Earth observation data for fire monitoring, weather forecasting, climate monitoring or prediction, global change detection, volcanic ash tracking, vegetation/drought monitoring, oil spill tracking, rainfall measurements or forecasts, hurricane landfall predictions, and fisheries management. The satellite data used may be from any Earth observations satellite, that is, a U.S. government (e.g., NOAA) or commercial or foreign satellite.
A committee composed of eminent professionals in the field will select the recipient for this award, the nominee must be a U.S. citizen, national, or permanent resident—and not more than 40 years of age by 31 December 2001.
Nominations may apply to individuals or groups. If nominating a group, all members of the group should have been actively involved in the design and/or implementation of the demonstrated use, and each must be a United States citizen, national, or permanent resident. In addition, the leader of the group must be clearly identified.
The National Space Club must receive nominations with the complete application package by 1 December 2001. A complete nomination must include the following:
Nomination packets should be sent to the following:
National Space Club
Christopher A. Waln
Director, Strategic Operations
Space & Communications Operating Unit
TASC
4801 Stonecroft Blvd.
Chantilly, VA 20151.
(703) 633-8486 office
(800) 800-9724 message service
Applications may also be e-mailed to cawaln@tasc.com.
A panel composed of government and nongovernment scientists and program managers will review the nominations and recommend a selectee. Final decisions on the on the selection will be made by the chair of the award committee by January 2002.
The National Space Club will present one award per year. However, in extraordinary circumstances, the National Space Club may decide to present the award to two or more persons or groups. The award will be presented in March 2002 at the annual Goddard Memorial Dinner, held near Washington, D.C., and hosted by the National Space Club.
If you have questions, please contact Jane D’Aguanno in the Office of the Assistant Administrator for Satellite and Information Services at (301) 713-3385; fax, (301) 713-1249; or e-mail, jane.daguanno@noaa.gov.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |
Dr. Luz Sosa has joined the staff of Weather Research Center. Sosa, who worked in the Cuban Weather Bureau for 25 years, will be translating WRC forecasts, WRC Web pages, and Weather Camp materials into Spanish.
| Top of Document | Newsletter Home Page | AMS Home Page |