Editor: Jim Elliott

Contributor:Stephanie Kenitzer

Copy Editor: Marcie Bernstein

Volume 22, Number 1, January 2001

AMS NEWS

• AMS Members Elect President-Elect and New Councilors
• AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography to Include Special Session on Satellite Remote Sensing Applications

GOVERNMENT NEWS

• Final Appropriations Bills Signed, Including Funding for NOAA
• Movement to Double Funding for Science Research Gaining Momentum
• U.S. Eighth-Graders Score Above Average in Science

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• India Approves Nation's First Dedicated Weather Satellite

WEATHER AND CLIMATE

• A Look Back at the Weather of 2000
• Colorado Experiment Uncovers Extra-Fast Lightning Flashes
• Climate Atlas of the Contiguous United States CD-ROM Now Available
• NASA, FEMA Form Partnership on a Natural Disaster Initiative
• Microscopic Life Provides Clues about Past Climates
• New NCAR Books Focus on Environmental Decision Making, Severe Weather, and Climate Change

SATELLITES AND SPACE

• Scientists Discuss Solar Max Activity and Impact
• NASA Selects California Firm to Build Next-Generation Weather Instrument
• Second-Generation Earth-Observing Missions Planned

PEOPLE IN THE NEWS

• AMS Fellow Ants Leetmaa Named New Director of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

AMS NEWS

AMS Members Elect President-Elect and New Councilors

Dr. Richard Rosen, vice president and chief scientist at the Research and Development Division of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., in Lexington, Massachusetts, has been elected President-Elect by the AMS membership. He will serve as President in 2002.

AMS members also voted on four new councilors. They are Fred Carr, chair of the Department of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma; Marvin Geller, dean and director of the Marine Science Department, State University of New York, Stonybrook; Pamela Stephens, senior science coordinator with the Lower Atmosphere Research Section, National Science Foundation; and Anne Thompson, atmospheric chemist, Laboratory for Atmospheres, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Their three-year terms will begin on Sunday 14 January 2001.

Rana Fine, professor at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science at the University of Miami, was appointed Councilor by the Executive Council in September 2000.

AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography to Include Special Session on Satellite Remote Sensing Applications

The American Meteorological Society–sponsored 11th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography scheduled for 14–18 October 2001 in Madison, Wisconsin, will be preceded by a special session on “Satellite Remote Sensing Applications from the User Perspective.” The session will be held on the weekend of 12–13 October. There will be a separate program committee for this special session, composed of members from industry; the National Weather Service; the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service; and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

The focus of the special session is on scientific remote sensing and GIS applications developed to address the needs of government agencies and the private sector (farming, forestry, fisheries, insurance) with particular focus on needs in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The aim is to focus awareness of and promote the use of satellite remote sensing data by a broader end user community.

The process is a collaborative effort that often teams researchers from universities and government with end users from state and local government agencies or private sector interests to analyze requirements, derive value-added products, and prototype scientific applications that enhance decision making, planning, and management and protection of resources. Presentations are envisioned to include areas such as disaster management, disease monitoring, hydrology, protection of natural resources, urban planning and precision agriculture, coastal zone management, fisheries, and forestry.

A call for papers, a preliminary program, and general information will be posted on the AMS Web site (http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS) in February. For further information contact Robert Plante (fax: 301-925-0438; e-mail: rplante@eos.hitc.com).

GOVERNMENT NEWS

Final Appropriations Bills Signed, Including Funding for NOAA

The final appropriations bills including one funding the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was signed by the President in mid-December. The bill was part of the omnibus bill (H.R. 4942). A breakdown of the NOAA appropriations follows.

Movement to Double Funding for Science Research Gaining Momentum

There's a movement afoot on Capitol Hill that is gaining momentum—especially on the Senate side—to greatly increase appropriations for basic science research. Using the tremendous increase in funding for National Institute of Health (NIH) over the past few years as a model, champions of science in both parties on Capitol Hill are proposing that over the next five years funding for basic science in math, physics, chemistry, and computing be doubled.

Over the past seven years, from FY94 through FY01, Congress has increased the NIH research budget from $11.5 billion to $19.7 billion, an increase of 71%. By contrast, the National Science Foundation (NSF) research budget has only increased 27% during that period, from approximately $2.7 billion in 1994 to $3.4 billion in 2001. According to the NSF, simply catching up with the NIH budget over this period would demand an additional appropriation to NSF of $1.8 billion this year.

Support for “doubling” is focused on the Senate side, where over three dozen Senators have acted as cosponsors, and the primary bill (S. 2046, the Federal Research Investment Act) passed by unanimous consent of the Senate. The bill is composed of three bills authorizing increases in basic research over five years for 16 federal agencies and includes a bill passed separately by the House of Representatives authorizing increases for federal spending on information technology.

In this past Congress, there was little support for passage of the more generous Senate provisions on the House side due to differences over how such legislation should be structured. However, widespread, bipartisan support in the Senate suggests broader support on Capitol Hill for the general principle of substantial increases in federal funding for basic science research. The issue promises to remain increasingly relevant and may see a better chance in a political environment that may favor relatively modest measures that do not invoke heated, partisan issues.

U.S. Eighth-Graders Score Above Average in Science

A new report finds that, compared to their peers around the world, U.S. eighth-grade students score above average in science generally but only at the international average in physics. They also are less likely than their international peers to have science teachers with a major or degree in physics.

The results of the study caused Department of Education Secretary Richard Riley to comment: "It's apparent that we need to make a major investment in upgrading teacher skills in math, science and other subjects."

Educators, policymakers, and proponents and critics alike of the nation's K–12 education system have relied on information from a series of international comparisons at various grade levels.

The U.S. Department of Education's National Center for Education Statistics released the preliminary results of the study, conducted in 1999 on eighth-graders, on 5 December 2000. A similar study was conducted in 1995.

Some highlights of the report, "Pursuing Excellence," include the following:

• U.S. eighth-graders performed slightly above the international average of 38 nations in both science and math. In a 1995 study, U.S. eighth-graders tested above the international average in science but below the average in math. Direct comparisons of international standing cannot be made between the two years because the list of participating countries is not identical. However, the data show no absolute improvement in performance of eighth-graders between 1995 and 1999, in either science or math.

• The data show that in science, U.S. eighth-graders outperformed their peers in 18 nations. They performed similarly to their peers in five nations, and they scored lower in science than students in 14 nations. In math, the results show that U.S. eighth-graders performed better than their peers in 17 nations and performed similarly to students in six nations. Their scores were surpassed by those of students in 14 nations.

Twenty-six nations participated in the 1999 study. The 1999 data suggests that U.S. eighth-graders performed worse in science and math in 1999 than U.S fourth-graders did in 1995, when compared to a group of 17 nations that participated in the same two assessments. "This finding validates the results of the previous 1995 study that after the fourth grade, students in the United States fall behind their international peers as they pass through the school system," said Gary Phillips, acting commissioner of education statistics.

While black U.S. eighth-graders improved their math scores over the black eighth-graders of four years ago, they did not improve their science scores. Neither white nor Hispanic U.S. eighth-graders showed improvement in either subject over comparable U.S. eighth-graders in the 1995 study.

The United States was one of 16 countries in which boys outperformed girls in eighth-grade science and was one of 34 countries showing no gender gap in eighth-grade math.

In science, U.S. eighth-graders performed higher than the international average in five of six content areas tested: earth science, chemistry, life science, environmental and resource issues, and scientific inquiry and the nature of science. The U.S. students' performance equaled the international average in the physics content area.

The report points out some differences in curriculum, teacher preparation, and teaching practices between the United States and other countries, but warns that analysis of the data is still preliminary and cautions against assuming unwarranted correlations.

U.S. eighth-graders are less likely to be taught math or science by a teacher with a major or main area of specialty in math or physics, respectively, but are as likely as their international peers to be taught science by a teacher with a major or a degree in biology, chemistry, or science education.

The report was designed to reflect the curriculum from many nations and does not necessarily match exactly what U.S. students are taught in eighth-grade math and science.

The study runs 138 pages with appendixes and can be accessed at http://nces.ed.gov/timss.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

India Approves Nation's First Dedicated Weather Satellite

The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) has won government approval to build the nation's first dedicated geostationary-orbiting satellite for cyclone warning and weather forecasting, according to Space News.

The new satellite was proposed by India's Department of Science and Technology, which runs the Indian Meteorological Department, following the failure last year of a key weather sensor aboard the nation's Insat-2E spacecraft, according to the article in the 11 December issue.

In the past, all of India's Insat series of geostationary weather satellites also have carried telecommunications payloads. The new satellite, dubbed Metsat, will be placed in an orbital slot above the Indian Ocean. The launch is scheduled for October 2001.

Expected cost of the satellite is approximately 750 million rupees ($16 million), according to the publication.

Metsat is expected to fill the void caused by the loss of two meteorological payloads in recent months. The very high resolution radiometer used for cloud imaging on Insat-2E failed last year, and the nation's forecasting capabilities suffered another blow on 4 November when ISRO was forced to retire Insat-2B after it ran out of fuel.

WEATHER AND CLIMATE

A Look Back at the Weather of 2000

While year 2000 brought drought to large portions of the southern United States, cooler, wetter conditions to northeastern and mid-Atlantic states, a historic season of wildfires, fewer tornadoes than usual, and an active hurricane season which produced no land-falling storms, the year ended with record-breaking cold and snow and the nation headed into a "normal" winter after a three-year lull.

The U.S. National temperature was above average during 2000 according to statistics calculated by scientists working from the world's largest statistical weather database at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina.

After beginning with record winter warmth, the year 2000 is ending with colder than normal temperatures across much of the nation. Although the final temperature for the year will depend on conditions during the remaining two weeks of December that have not been included, the average annual U.S. temperature in 2000 is projected to be between 54.1° and 54.2°F, the 7th to 12th warmest year on record in 106 years. This is well above the long-term (1895–1999) average of 52.8°F.

Although colder than normal temperatures have affected much of the United States recently, the trend to warmer temperatures, which began more than a century ago, continues. U.S. temperatures have risen at a rate of 0.9°F per century over the past 100 years.

Heat waves and drought plagued much of the southern and western United States in 2000, while the Midwest and northeastern United States experienced prolonged periods of cooler and wetter than normal conditions. July 2000 was the coolest such month on record in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and the second coolest in New York. Precipitation was above average in 15 states throughout the northeast and Midwest during the summer months (June–August).

The relatively cool and wet summer conditions in the northeast and Midwest would have been welcome in the South and West, where months of below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures led to severe drought and widespread wildfires. States in the Deep South endured a third straight summer of below-normal precipitation. The driest May–October on record occurred in the Deep South states (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana) leading to drought conditions as severe as any observed during the twentieth century. Drought-related damages throughout the South and southern Plains are estimated in the billions. The driest July–September on record occurred in the southern region (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arizona, Louisiana, and Mississippi) before torrential rains brought flooding to many cities and made November the wettest November on record in this region, which experienced extreme drought only months earlier.

By August 2000, 36% of the nation was in severe to extreme drought, although precipitation in recent months has significantly reduced the severity of drought in many areas. The widespread drought contributed to one of the worst U.S. wildfire seasons in 50 years. More than 7 million acres of forests and grasslands were consumed by fire in 2000 with the greatest losses in western states, particularly Idaho and Montana, and estimated losses nationwide of more than $1 billion.

There were fewer tornadoes in 2000 than average, while Atlantic hurricane activity was above average for the third consecutive year. Sixteen very strong to violent tornadoes (winds in excess of 158 mph) occurred between March and August 2000 in the United States. This was much less than the 1950–99 average of 38. Throughout the past 50 years, little trend in very strong to violent tornado activity has been observed.

There were 14 named tropical storms in 2000, eight of which became hurricanes with three reaching major hurricane strength. On average, nine named storms form with seven growing to hurricane strength and two developing into major hurricanes. A tendency for greater hurricane activity has occurred over the past six years after more than two decades of generally below-average activity. Five or more major hurricanes (winds in excess of 111 mph) occurred in 1995, 1996, and 1998. Prior to 1995, five or more major Atlantic hurricanes had not occurred in one season since 1964.

Data collected by NOAA's TIROS-N polar-orbiting satellites and analyzed by NASA and the Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville also indicate that temperatures in the lower half of the atmosphere (lowest 8 km) were much warmer than average over the United States. Based on 11 months of data, satellite measurements over the United States indicate that 2000 ranks as the fourth-warmest since records began in 1979.

As with the temperatures for the United States, average global surface temperatures were also much warmer than normal in 2000. The global temperature is expected to be 0.7°F above the 1880–1999 long-term average, similar to temperatures recorded in 1999. The only years warmer were 1998, 1997, 1995, and 1990. The 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1983. During the past century, global temperatures have increased at a rate near 1.1°F per century, but this trend has dramatically increased to a rate greater than 3.0°F per century during the past 25 years.

A strong La Niña at the beginning of 2000 weakened during July and August, but was still evident at year's end. Cooler than normal temperatures throughout the eastern equatorial Pacific held down temperatures in the Tropics. But temperatures in the nontropical Northern Hemisphere continued to average near record levels. Temperatures north of 20°N were the second warmest on record during the December 1999–November 2000 period. Annual anomalies in excess of 2°F were widespread across Canada, Scandinavia, and much of eastern Europe and the Balkans.

Global precipitation was also above average in 2000. It is estimated that 2000 will end as one of the 10 wettest years on record. Precipitation in the tropics was heavily influenced by La Niña throughout much of the year, with above-average precipitation in Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific, while drier than normal conditions were common in the central tropical Pacific. La Niña also contributed to above-normal precipitation in northeast South America and southern Africa and enhanced monsoonal precipitation in southern Asia. Below-normal precipitation across equatorial areas of east Africa and the Gulf Coast of the United States is also attributable to La Niña conditions.

The climate data are available at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/climate/research/2000/preann2000/preann2000.html.

Colorado Experiment Uncovers Extra-Fast Lightning Flashes

Data from a 1996 Colorado experiment has uncovered a new class of lightning flashes that are thousands of times faster than those previously observed.

NCAR scientist Eric Defer is analyzing data on a set of short-duration intracloud flashes that can play out as quickly as 23 millionths of a second and perhaps even faster. Normally, intracloud flashes average about a quarter of a second in duration. Cloud-to-ground flashes can last more than a second.

Defer presented his findings on 16 December at the annual meeting of the AGU in San Francisco, California. The NCAR scientist has been studying a Colorado storm that occurred on 10 July 1996, during the deep convection field project of STERAO (Stratosphere–Troposhere Experiment: Radiation, Aerosols and Ozone).

Most lightning sensors report only location and polarity. But a French VHF interferometer deployed at STERAO can profile single flashes in three dimensions and judge duration. Out of about 5400 flashes observed in the 10 July storm, only 83 were cloud-to-ground. More than 800 intracloud flashes had durations of less than a millisecond. Many of these lasted no more than 23 microseconds, which was the instrument's sharpest resolution.

"Locally strong electric field may explain the ignition of these flashes, but we don't understand why they don't last longer," said Defer.

Several other observing systems have spotted these brief flashes in the past few years, but Defer has produced the first analysis relating such flashes to radar output.

For 10 July 1996, as well as for several other cases from STERAO, the short-duration lightning tends to occur at heights of 6–10 kilometers (4–7 miles) within the storm, in close proximity to the strongest updrafts and the most intense reflectivities. Thus, according to Defer, the ultraquick flashes might someday serve as a real-time tool for judging storm severity.

Climate Atlas of the Contiguous United States CD-ROM Now Available

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has produced a CD-ROM version of the Climate Atlas of the Contiguous United States.

The atlas is composed of 737 maps, which depict temperature, precipitation, snow, and other parameters of all areas of the contiguous United States. Maps for Hawaii and Alaska will be available on CD-ROM in the spring of 2001, officials said.

The atlas replaces the very popular paper copy Climatic Atlas of the United States, published in 1998.

"The new climate atlas will serve the interests of commercial, industrial, agricultural, research and educational institutions, as well as those from the general public," said Marc Plantico, a climatologist at the Asheville, North Carolina, center. "Its primary purpose is to show the 'normal' or average spatial patterns for the various parameters. Maps of extreme events are also included."

NCDC's partners in the atlas project were the Oregon Climate Service, the Spatial Climatic Analysis Service at Oregon State University and the Natural Resources Conservation Service at the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The CD-ROM contains the station data (in DBF format) used to produce the atlas along with detailed documentation concerning the data used to generate each map and how the statistics were computed. Most atlas products were derived from data from the 1961–90 period of record.

The new atlas was developed using innovative technology and geographic information systems to generate the maps objectively, officials explained. The analytical climate model, PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model), was used to generate 4 x 4 kilometer grids for many of the parameters. Additional maps were generated by NCDC using the Environmental Systems Research Institute's ArcView.

The CD-ROM is available from NCDC at a cost of $130 (online) or $175 (offline) plus $11 shipping and handling charge. To order online, go to http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ and visit the "Online Store." For offline orders, call (828) 271-4800 or write the National Climatic Data Center, NOAA/NESDIS, Veach-Haley Federal Building, 151 Patton Ave., Asheville, NC, 28801-5001.

NASA, FEMA Form Partnership on a Natural Disaster Initiative

NASA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) have formed a partnership on a major natural-disaster initiative designed to create a better understanding of flood plains and wildfires and develop maps to improve disaster recovery and mitigation by state and local communities throughout the United States.

Under a Memorandum of Understanding signed by NASA Administrator Dan Goldin and FEMA Director James Lee Witt, the agencies will apply science, technology and remote-sensing research satellite images of the earth to emergency management issues on the ground, such as mapping of flood plains and earthquake fault lines and observation of wildfires and other natural hazards.

"The new partnership...demonstrates the diverse and wide-ranging applications of NASA's earth science research and technology and its benefit to the American people," said Dr. Ghassem Asrar, associate administrator for Earth Sciences at NASA Headquarters. He explained that the Office of Earth Sciences is eager to form partnerships with other government agencies as well as with industry and public groups "to expand America's use of our earth science data."

The initiative is affiliated with Project Impact: Building Disaster Resistant Communities. The agreement outlines a first cooperative effort to map flood plains in California's Los Angeles Basin; around Sacramento, California; Virginia Beach, Virginia; the Red River along the North Dakota and Minnesota borders; and San Francisco, California. Using laser-imaging and radar-mapping data, the two agencies are evaluating technology for creating more accurate maps of these areas that will help state and local officials model and understand drainage and runoff, vital to their disaster preparedness.

At the same time, NASA scientists will gain valuable data for technology development; validation and calibration of satellites; and the understanding of land use, land cover, and flood hazards. America's flood-insurance industry also will benefit from the accuracy of these new maps, officials said.

As the agreement is implemented, NASA and FEMA researchers will use a variety of public and private satellites and aircraft-mounted earth-observing instruments. These efforts will help in understanding issues such as soil permeability and saturation, which affect how much water during a flood would likely be absorbed, as opposed to remaining above the ground and possibly causing damage to crops, houses, and communities.

Using airplanes and spacecraft that observe characteristics of the earth invisible to the naked eye, researchers can better see characteristics of the earth's surface that are changing and can indicate where earthquake fault lines or volcanoes may be expanding, vital data for understanding and preparing for these dangerous phenomena, officials explained.

Microscopic Life Provides Clues about Past Climates

Microscopic plant and animal life is providing scientists clues about the climate system that existed as long as 10 000 years ago, David M. Anderson of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Geophysical Data Center told attendees of the American Geophysical Union's fall meeting in San Francisco in mid-December.

"The variability of sea ice and fresh water export from the Arctic via the East Greenland Current is a fundamental aspect of the climate system, yet little is known about how it varies from decade to decade or from one millennium to the next," Anderson said. "We hypothesize that it might be possible to reconstruct the presence of the East Greenland Current from the stable isotope gradients recorded in foraminifers—microscopic marine animals whose calcite skeletons are preserved in seafloor sediments."

Initial calibration studies reveal that both horizontal and vertical gradients in oxygen and carbon isotopes are recorded in sediments, Anderson said. By determining the composition of the sediments, scientists are able to reconstruct ocean circulation patterns and produce a time series of change much longer than the 100+ year instrumental record of climate. The ultimate goal of this project is to understand the ocean's role in climate, and to determine how the slowly changing aspects of our climate such as the Arctic oscillation and the thermohaline circulation could alter our climate in the coming decades.

New NCAR Books Focus on Environmental Decision Making, Severe Weather, and Climate Change

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) recently introduced five new books, written by NCAR scientists, which pose questions and offer insights into a range of environmental issues. The books are the following:

• Currents of Change: El Nino and La Nina Impacts on Climate and Society, second edition, by Michael H. Glantz. Cambridge University Press, 2001, 266 pp., ISBN 0-521-78672-X, paper. Michael H. Glantz is a senior scientist and the former director of NCAR's Environmental and Societal Impacts Group.

• Effects of Changing Climate on Weather and Human Activities, by Kevin E. Trenberth, Kathleen Miller, Linda Mearns, and Steven Rhodes. Global Change Instruction Program. University Science Books, Sausalito, CA, 2000, 46 pp., ISBN 1-891389-14-9, paper. Kevin E. Trenberth is a senior scientist and head of NCAR's Climate Analysis Section. Kathleen Miller and Linda O. Mearns are scientists in NCAR's Environmental and Societal Impacts Group. Former ESIG scientist Steven Rhodes now works in the private sector.

• Prediction: Decision Making and the Future of Nature, edited by Daniel Sarewitz, Roger A. Pielke Jr., and Radford Byerly Jr. Island Press, Washington, D.C., 2000, 405 pp., ISBN 1-55963-775-7, cloth, ISBN 1-55963-776-5, paper. Daniel Sarewitz is senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center for Science, Policy, and Outcomes and author of Frontiers of Illusion: Science, Technology, and the Politics of Progress (Temple University Press, 1996). Roger A. Pielke Jr. is a political scientist in NCAR's Environmental and Societal Impacts Group. Radford Byerly Jr., now retired, was chief of staff of the Science, Space, and Technology Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives.

• Storms, Vols. I and II, edited by Roger A. Pielke Jr. and Roger A. Pielke Sr. Routledge Hazards and Disasters Series. Routledge Press, London, 2000, 953 pp., ISBN 0-415-17239-X. Roger A. Pielke Jr. is a political scientist in NCAR's Environmental and Societal Impacts Group. Roger A. Pielke Sr. is a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, and is Colorado's state climatologist.

• The Carbon Cycle, edited by T.M.L. Wigley and D.S. Schimel. Cambridge University Press, 2000, 292 pp., ISBN 0-521-58337-3, cloth. Tom M.L. Wigley is a senior scientist and director of ACACIA (A Consortium for the Application of Climate Impact Assessments) at NCAR. David S. Schimel is a senior scientist and head of the Ecosystem Dynamics and the Atmosphere section at NCAR and head of the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena, Germany.

SATELLITES AND SPACE

Scientists Discuss Solar Max Activity and Impact

As the sun’s maximum activity approaches its zenith, solar scientists appear quite happy about the fact that they have the largest coordinated fleet of spacecraft and ground observatories ever recording the outbursts of solar radiation and helping them make predictions about space weather.

Four of those scientists reviewed past solar activities and outlined the impact of the solar eruptions on the earth in a press conference at NASA Headquarters in Washington, D.C., on 21 December.

Leading the group was Dr. George Withbroe, science director, Sun–Earth Connection Program at NASA Headquarters; Dr. Ernest Hildner, director, Space Environment Center, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado; Dr. Craig DeForest, solar physicist, Southwest Research Institute, Boulder; and Dr. Nicola Fox, science and operations coordinator, International Solar Terrestrial Physics Project, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland.

Much of the presentation centered on the impact of the “Bastille Day event,” an intense solar storm last July. With data from ground-based observatories, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) (a joint European Space Agency and NASA project) and NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, scientists were able to anticipate a bright solar flare and ensuing energetic proton shower, they said.

The flare coincided with a coronal mass ejection (CME), which sent billions of tons of plasma into space traveling at 4 million miles an hour, 2 times faster than normal.

Withbroe explained that during this solar max period there can be as many as 200 solar eruptions a day. De Forest said that the number of events having an impact on earth is on the increase. Both he and Fox pointed out that the outbursts on the sun have an impact on earth in three different phases, the first beginning only in minutes following the outburst and the final impact occurring up to three days later.

Fox pointed out that the Bastille Day event brought about a significant change in the aurora, normally limited to the northern latitudes. During that event, she said, the aurora was seen as far south as Texas and Florida.

The outbursts, the scientists explained, affect many phases of life on earth, ranging from power failures and disturbances in the global positioning system accuracy and sometimes extending to activities aboard orbiting spacecraft. DeForest explained that a geomagnetic storm in March 1989 overloaded the power system in Canada, wiping out power in the entire province of Quebec, and leaving six million people without electricity.

Past solar storm impacts have caused companies to be better prepared for such disturbances today, the panel said, and explained that much of the comprehensive data collected during this cycle of the solar max would play a major role for improvements during the next cycle in 2011.

DeForest said the sun’s activity this solar max, cycle 23, is not as active as cycle 22, 11 years ago. “It’s approximately 10% lower,” he explained.

The panel said the solar activity has not shown to have any impact on short-term weather conditions on earth, but may affect climate.

NASA Selects California Firm to Build Next-Generation Weather Instrument

NASA's Office of Earth Sciences has selected Gencorp Aerojet, of Azusa, California, to implement a next-generation satellite package that could improve weather forecasting twofold and help in the research of global climate change.

The California firm will build the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), a spaceborne atmospheric instrument designed to measure microwave energy emitted and scattered by the atmosphere. ATMS will work alongside an infrared sounder instrument to produce daily global atmospheric temperature, humidity, and pressure profiles, which are essential to accurate weather forecasting and long-term climate research.

The contract is worth $206.6 million, with the majority of the work to be performed in Azusa. NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, will be responsible for the oversight of the award.

"As we develop this advanced technology instrument, we move closer to improving our constellation of weather- and climate-observing satellites to the point where we will be able to improve forecasts from the current 3–5-day accuracy level of predictions on to 7–10-day predictions," said Dr. Ghassem Asrar, associate administrator for earth sciences at NASA Headquarters in Washington, D.C." These new technologies will provide an order of magnitude increase in our predictive capabilities and our overall understanding of earth's climate in the new millennium."

ATMS will replace instruments currently flying on polar-orbiting weather satellites. The new instrument is about one-third the size and weight of existing microwave-sounding systems currently on the polar-orbiting operational environmental satellites and the Aqua spacecraft.

"We are investing in key technologies such as ATMS to meet our national strategic objectives in weather and climate research," Asrar explained.

The first ATMS unit is planned to be flown on a project being developed by the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project "Bridge" mission, a triagency program involving NASA, NOAA, and the U.S. Air Force.

The Bridge mission is expected to ensure continuity of research quality data by bridging sounding data between the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) research missions and the NPOESS operational missions of the future.

Additional information is available at http://npoess.noaa.gov and http://jointmission.gsfc.nasa.gov/.

Second-Generation Earth-Observing Missions Planned

NASA is moving ahead with plans for a second generation of earth-observing missions, including a large constellation of spacecraft for measuring global rainfall and a radar-equipped satellite for tracking earthquake faults, according to a story in the 18 December issue of Space News.

Following an interview with Associate Administrator for Earth Science Ghassem Asrar, reporter Brian Berger wrote that the NASA official reported that Congress has given approval to begin work on these projects as well as a tropospheric wind-measuring mission. In addition, NASA plans to request funds in 2002 to begin work on satellites for measuring ocean wave heights and for mapping atmospheric ozone, the article noted.

These and other missions are part of the long-awaited second wave of missions under the Earth Observing System program. The first wave includes Landsat 7 and Terra, both of which were launched last year. Several others have yet to fly.

As a result of several revisions, the article read, the second wave of missions has been stalled for nearly two years. Having received the National Academy of Sciences blessing for its Earth Science Enterprise Research Strategy for 2000–10, NASA is ready to press forward, Asrar told Berger.

Robert Serafin, AMS 2001 President and a member of the Academy panel that reviewed NASA's plan, is quoted as saying the agency has produced a second scientific roadmap for earth science. "NASA's plans are quite healthy, and we were happy to see those plans," Serafin said. Former director of NCAR in Boulder, Colorado, Serafin is President-Elect of AMS and will assume those responsibilities at the Society's Annual Meeting in Albuquerque this month.

Alex Getz, director of the Center for the Study of Earth from Space at the University of Colorado, is quoted as saying that NASA appears to be asking the right questions. "What remains to be seen is how they will go about getting answers to those questions and whether they will receive a big enough budget to comprehensively answer them all."

Asrar said the Earth Science Enterprise is planning three different categories of missions and measurements to answer the pressing scientific questions about the variables affecting global climate change.

Systemic measurements carried out on a continuous basis over a series of missions would help with questions that require a long data record. NASA's Terra spacecraft carries several sensors that fall into this category.

Exploratory measurements are those where the scientific question might be answered in a single mission, Asrar said. This class of missions is similar to Earth System Science Pathfinder missions now under development.

The third category of missions would be focused on technology development and would be similar to New Millennium Program missions, such as Earth Observing-1, which was launched in November.

In the year ahead, Asrar said, NASA will begin preliminary work on three new missions intended to broaden the understanding of how the earth functions as a system. NASA's 2001 budget includes money to begin work on a global precipitation measurement mission as a follow-up to the joint U.S.–Japan TRMM launched in 1997. The global precipitation mission would employ a constellation of satellites to measure worldwide rainfall on a long-term basis.

The constellation would include eight or nine satellites, one equipped with an active radar sensor and a passive microwave radiometer and the rest outfitted with just the radiometers, Asrar explained.

While the constellation would provide a global view of the availability of freshwater, he said, it would not be as extensive as might be expected. "...it will rely upon some of the existing operational weather satellites," he said.

Asrar said he foresees the constellation growing over time as various nations and organizations launch weather satellites than can pull double duty as passive modes for the constellation.

"...it could end up being very expensive, but the burden will not be on a single nation or a single organization," he said. "We believe this is a model for future cooperation in earth observation."

A global earthquake mission also is in development, according to Asrar. This mission would employ a single satellite functioning as a synthetic aperture radar interferometer for monitoring the movement of faults.

PEOPLE IN THE NEWS

AMS Fellow Ants Leetmaa Named New Director of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Dr. Ants Leetmaa, the director of the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), has been named director of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey.

Leetmaa has been director of the CPC and a lead climate forecaster in the United States for more than three years. He will assume his new duties in February 2001.

Announcement of his appointment was made by NOAA Administrator Dr. D. James Baker at NOAA's Year-End Weather Review press conference on 19 December. NOAA is actively conducting a search for a new director of CPC, located in Camp Springs, Maryland, according to a NWS spokesman.

Under Leetmaa's leadership, the CPC increased its seasonal forecasting successes, most notable of which was the forecast for the 1997/98 El Niño and its impact on the United States. This was the first time that regional impacts had been forecast six months in advance, allowing emergency managers and others to prepare for its effects. His efforts resulted in the CPC producing more skillful seasonal forecasts, developing the framework in the NWS for linking weather and climate variability and making the CPC an internationally known source of knowledge about climate variability.

Working with interagency and external researchers, the CPC introduced new, nontraditional climate forecast products designed to help the public cope with real problems for which there had been no forecast products, such as drought, officials explained. The U.S. Drought Monitor and Drought Outlook were developed under Leetmaa's guidance, which proved useful to the general public, emergency managers, and the media. He also guided the creation of a forecast of excessive heat and a seasonal hurricane forecast.

Leetmaa becomes the third director in GFDL's history. Joseph Smagorinsky was the first, followed by Jerry Mahlman, who retired from federal service in October.

GFDL is engaged in comprehensive long lead-time research to expand the scientific understanding of the physical processes that govern the behavior of the atmosphere and the oceans as complex fluid systems.

Dr. Leetmaa holds a B.S. degree in physics from the University of Chicago (1965) and a Ph.D. in oceanography from MIT (1969). He conducted postdoctoral studies at MIT (1969–72), seagoing oceanographic work at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, Florida (1972–86), and held other positions ranging from oceanographer, to chief of the Coupled Model Project, to senior scientist at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (1986 and 1987).